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Serious Economic Crisis Looms In Russia, China May Help

Posted by Soulskill on from the blame-the-bears dept.

jones_supa writes: Russia is facing a "full-blown economic crisis," a former finance minister has warned, as the country is forced to take emergency financial measures. The economy has been battered by a wave of sanctions (set by other countries as a result of tensions over Ukraine), geopolitical uncertainty, and falling oil prices. Analysts have warned that the Russian economy will not improve in the long run until the aforementioned conditions have also improved. The Central Bank of Russia said that a plan to loan Trust bank an amount of up to 30bn rubles ($54m) had been approved. Trust bank has run a series of advertisements featuring actor Bruce Willis in Russia, along with the ironic quote: "When I need money, I just take it." Anna Stupnytska, an economist at Fidelity Solutions, said that "the risk of a sovereign default is low, it's the corporate sector where the main vulnerabilities lie, and banking in particular. Due to sanctions, companies cannot refinance their debt as access to international markets has been essentially cut off." Reader hackingbear adds: Two Chinese ministers offered support for Russia as President Vladimir Putin seeks to shore up the plummeting ruble without depleting foreign-exchange reserves. Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng said expanding a currency swap between the two nations and making increased use of the yuan for bilateral trade would have the greatest impact in aiding Russia. Western governments and experts have been criticizing China for restricting exchange and suppressing the value of its currency, even though anyone who lived in China during the 1990's knew that the value of the yuan was cut to align with the (vibrant) black market. But as grandma has warned us, we should be careful of what we wish for. China has greatly sped up the relaxation of currency exchange and is promoting the yuan as an alternative to the dollar for global trade and finance. They've signed currency-swap agreements with 28 other central banks to encourage this. Once accomplished, and backed by China's growing military might, Renminbi would be a formidable competitor to U.S. Dollar, which would hamper the U.S's ability to borrow almost freely with banks around the world.

59 of 265 comments (clear)

  1. Re:"Looms" is not a transitive verb by MarcNicholas · · Score: 3, Funny

    It Soviet Russia, verbs transitive you!

  2. And all the meantime, we are so worried about... by davydagger · · Score: 3, Insightful

    And the whole time we are super worried about North Korea, and Russia....

  3. I never have understood by msobkow · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I never have understood the world's fetish with the US dollar. Every nation has a currency. The US economy is just as prone to stagnation, deficit, over, and under valuing as any other currency.

    I'd like nothing better than to see the Rothschild's hold on international markets broken. If it takes China to do that, then all power to China in the endeavour.

    --
    I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
    1. Re:I never have understood by bledri · · Score: 5, Informative

      I never have understood the world's fetish with the US dollar. Every nation has a currency. The US economy is just as prone to stagnation, deficit, over, and under valuing as any other currency.

      I'd like nothing better than to see the Rothschild's hold on international markets broken. If it takes China to do that, then all power to China in the endeavour.

      You can thank Harry Dexter White for that. (And if you're American, you should thank him. Otherwise, maybe not.) See: The Battle of Bretton Woods. It really is pretty fascinating.

      --
      Some privacy policy Slashdot.
    2. Re:I never have understood by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

      If you do not understand the world's fetish with the U.S. dollar, you do not understand the state of the world after WWII. The wealth of the U.S. compared to the rest of the world at that time was staggering. Most of the developed world was in ruins. Only the U.S. remained relatively untouched by the war. The U.S. started mortgaging its future during the Reagan era, but it was the two Bush presidencies that did the most damage. Our deficit spending is now coming home to roost.

    3. Re:I never have understood by lgw · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The dollar is much like capitalism and democracy: it's the worst imaginable choice, except for everything else that's ever been tried. That's really it: the US government is just less effective at ruining the dollar than every other central bank for a major currency. Much of the current value of the euro is simply it's position as "second lest awful currency", a hedge against a reckless Fed.

      When the dollar looked rough a few years back, interest in gold perked up, and interest in the Swiss franc bloomed, but the Swiss were apparently uncomfortable with the idea of becoming a reserve currency, and committed explicitly to falling with the euro. Odd choice, but there it was.

      If the EU ever finishes collapsing, all the sovereign debt in the region blows up taking the Euro with it (it's only a question of when), and then finally recovers and regains financial credibility, then finally the dollar might be displaced, Or if China has it's inevitable revolution, and happens to emerge as a capitalist democracy, or when India or Brazil finally reach first-world status nation-wide. we might also have other credible currencies. But for now, the dollar is pretty much it.

      That's not to say the dollar can't be destroyed if the Fed tries hard enough. But over the past downturn they were actually quite clever: while they were printing ~$2 T in no money via QE, they were removing ~$2T in money supply via bank reserves (while we continue with a 0 reserve banking system, the Fed paid attractive-enough interest that banks voluntarily increased their reserves to unprecedented levels). And the Fed did actually wind down QE. I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop, when that ~$2T in "Excess reserves" comes back into the money supply and turbo-charges inflation, but hopefully that will just be Carter-like, and not a currency collapse.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    4. Re:I never have understood by Bill_the_Engineer · · Score: 2

      I never have understood the world's fetish with the US dollar.

      It's because the US has both a stable government and a large economy.

      --
      These comments are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of my employer or colleagues...
    5. Re:I never have understood by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Why not call it the Tip O'Neill era? He was the Speaker of the Democrat controlled house of Representatives -- that's where spending bills originate.

    6. Re:I never have understood by FooAtWFU · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Every nation has a currency. The US economy is just as prone to stagnation, deficit, over, and under valuing as any other currency.

      See, you used two words in that sentence. One of them is economy, the other is currency. They're related, but they're not the same. The thing that matters to most US residents is the economy -- specifically that it will be growing enough that it's possible to find a job in it which will secure a certain amount of output to secure one's well-being. (Residents saving for retirement benefit from both). The thing that matters to someone who borrow or lend or hold dollars isn't the economy per se, it's the fact that he can use that dollar in the future to buy a predictable amount of goods and services: price stability. (Stability is better than an increase in value of those dollars, because borrowing and lending need to balance each other out... besides, if you really wanted returns you'd find a real investment, not cash.)

      The US has flirted with price stability issues in the past (look at the 1970s and early 1980s), but not to the extent that Russia is experiencing right now. Russia has issued additional rubles through the state-backed Rosneft bond offering (a bailout averting a bankruptcy for one of Putin's top cronies) which was the proximate cause of the ruble free-fall, and because of sanctions, falling oil prices, and general economic decline outside of the oil sector, the ability of a ruble to purchase valuable goods and services (like oil) in the future is in question. China, meanwhile, has its own set of currency controls (hence a thriving black market in RMB-USD) and central-bank interventions of a scope and magnitude which make QE and QE2 look small.

      So what else are you going to use? Euros? No way, I thought you were worried about stagnation and deficits and stuff. Gold? Oh, yeah, obviously it's been an absolute MODEL of price stability lately, hahahahahahahahahaha... Bitcoin? Makes gold look good. Pounds sterling? Mmmaybe, in a pinch. Then most of the other currencies are on the small side, so it's harder to use them in high volumes.

      --
      The World Wide Web is dying. Soon, we shall have only the Internet.
    7. Re:I never have understood by everett · · Score: 2

      The uid's generally identify those.

      --
      Sig withheld to protect the innocent.
    8. Re:I never have understood by lgw · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I wish I knew a good one! Most places are as crazy as ZeroHedge, in one direction or another. I read MarketWatch, but more to keep abreast of market fashion than reality (never read a stock market site for economic news).

      The most useful stuff I've ever read on economics was the old-school stuff: on the business cycle, not just boom-bust but which sectors recover in which order - what leads recovery, and what's big when the end of the boom is near, and what survives best during the bust. The history of different kinds of currencies and the problems the had. The various big name economists from the first half of the 20th century, now that we can see the actual economic growth in various countries that seem to follow on or another of them. Everything old is new again.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    9. Re:I never have understood by NotDrWho · · Score: 3, Informative

      I never have understood the world's fetish with the US dollar.

      It stays strong because if anyone is stupid enough to speak out against it, we make them regret it.

      Don't fuck with the U.S. Dollar.

      --
      SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
    10. Re:I never have understood by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 2

      I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop, when that ~$2T in "Excess reserves" comes back into the money supply and turbo-charges inflation, but hopefully that will just be Carter-like, and not a currency collapse.

      That $2T "excess reserves" represents between five and ten percent of the money supply. If the Fed can overcome the urge to do QE again until that first $2T works its way through the economy, then it'll represent a couple extra percent inflation for three or four years, and not be much of a problem.

      If they decide to be so impressed with how QE worked that they do it whenever the economy stutters, it'll be disastrous....

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    11. Re:I never have understood by rtb61 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      More accurately those at the top whose power is tied to the US dollar continue to manipulate global capitalism in favour of their choice through global media and government propaganda. Capital is imaginary it's only real value it tied to countries primary resources and how it's currency equates with the value of those primary resources. The US with it currency is largely parasitical falsely tied to many other countries resources which the US forced through with economic and military warfare. The attack on the rouble is already failing which is exactly why corporate media is now hyping up potential collapse, it is simply not real.

      You have a group of multi-national corporations who are orchestrating the attack via their puppet the US government. Problem is they are loyal to no one and most certainly not each other. Basically when the opportunity comes to profit by betting the other way, the rouble over the dollar they will break ranks because the know the Russian rouble is backed by primary resources and the US dollar is only backed by propaganda.

      Circular reasoning, paying of debt generated by creating more imaginary US dollars where they debt was created by creating imaginary US dollars makes no sense at all outside the sleazy world of the US Federal Reserve. Pointing to the US being the last military superpower as defining the value of it's currency, is a really, really, bad thing. You might as well say, I have a gun and it is pointed at your head, this piece of printed paper can buy your resources because if you do not agree I will kill you and take those resources anyhow. That same gun pointed at your head also applies to paying off debt with more funny money, accept it or die. US exceptionalism always blind to it's own evil actions. A global anti-US coalition is growing and it is as a direct result of US exceptionlism being paraded across the internet and some of the truly awful things some idiotic US politicians say in public that the rest of the world can hear. That 'BRICs' association http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B... is going to generate an huge amount of money out of the failing attack on the Russian rouble, it is not like it wasn't expected.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    12. Re:I never have understood by Cyberax · · Score: 5, Insightful

      That's not to say the dollar can't be destroyed if the Fed tries hard enough. But over the past downturn they were actually quite clever: while they were printing ~$2 T in no money via QE, they were removing ~$2T in money supply via bank reserves (while we continue with a 0 reserve banking system, the Fed paid attractive-enough interest that banks voluntarily increased their reserves to unprecedented levels).

      That's not true. While Fed pays some interest on the reserves it also asks to pay interest on the loans. They are pretty much the same.

      So no, the other shoe won't drop. The accumulation of reserves is caused by a liquidity trap and in this case monetary base can be expanded pretty much indefinitely. If you want proof then look at Japan - its central bank does not pay interest on the reserves and yet almost 5x increase in the monetary base failed to increase inflation even to 2%.

      There are other examples - Switzerland increased its monetary supply by three times also doesn't pay interest on the reserves. And now it actually wants to institute a _negative_ interest rate (i.e. force banks to pay the central bank for holding the reserves). Yet Swiss Frank is still rock-solid.

    13. Re:I never have understood by CanadianMacFan · · Score: 2

      Only the U.S. remained relatively untouched by the war.

      Helps when you stay out of it for half the war.

    14. Re:I never have understood by ShieldW0lf · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Read up on Henry Kissinger. His conspiracy with the Saudi's created the situation, which really amounted to theft on a global scale by the US.

      The war in Iraq happened mostly because they were going to start selling oil for Euro's.

      In a nutshell, the reason the world has a fetish for the US dollar is that every time someone offers to sell energy for anything else, the US bomb the shit out of them.

      You think we like accepting your funny money in exchange for real world goods, knowing that it will never be redeemed for real world good from the US, but will instead be passed around like a cheque that never gets cashed?

      We don't.

      --
      -1 Uncomfortable Truth
    15. Re:I never have understood by lgw · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It seems people don't get this, so let's spell it out:

      Inflation requires both demand and supply of money. You can't cause inflation simply by increasing the money supply, unless you go totally crazy with it - however, if that supply is there when the economy heats up and demand appears, look out.

      Hpwever, 5-10% inflation during a good economy isn't per se a problem: high inflation is a symptom of a bubble economy but may be there without the bubble. And it's the malinvestment associated with a bubble that hurts everyone - "medium" inflation only really hurts people who made the wrong bet on the future value of the dollar.

      As long as you don't actually crater the currency, inflation is merely a warning sign of the real problem, and the real problem is people working on things no one wants: from bubbles to government make-work, the stuff we have is just the stuff we make, and if we're not working to make stuff we want or need, we'll all suffer for it.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    16. Re:I never have understood by Shoten · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I never have understood the world's fetish with the US dollar. Every nation has a currency. The US economy is just as prone to stagnation, deficit, over, and under valuing as any other currency.

      I'd like nothing better than to see the Rothschild's hold on international markets broken. If it takes China to do that, then all power to China in the endeavour.

      Oil...no matter where you buy it on the planet, or from whom...is priced in dollars. In no market is the price of a barrel of crude listed in euros, pounds sterling, or any other currency for that matter.

      Why does this matter in this case? Because Russia is basically an entire economy propped up solely on oil revenues. If the ruble devalues against the dollar, then essentially they are subjected to a brutal form of arbitrage where oil is cheaper from Russia than other places. So they get less money than the other oil producers do. If they boost production, it drives the cost of oil down even further. If they restrict production, they get less money that way too. Either way, they're fucked.

      And you know what? GOOD. Fuck them.

      --

      For your security, this post has been encrypted with ROT-13, twice.
    17. Re:I never have understood by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Alas, we weren't tied up in silly alliances with people we detested like most of the European nations in both WW1 and WW2.

      It should be noted, though, that the USA provided material and military assistance to the UK & USSR well before Japan attacked us, and in violation of US laws at the time (FDR was many things, including a tyrant who ignored the laws and Constitution when it suited him).

      Google Reuben James sometime. Trust me, US Navy ships escorting convoys of war material to a belligerent isn't business as usual. Or wasn't then.

      Note also that just because you're at war doesn't actually obligate other people to help you.

      Note finally that we remained untouched by the war not because we entered late, but because we had thousands of miles of ocean between us and Japan/Germany - they couldn't REACH us to do much damage, even if they'd wanted to.

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    18. Re:I never have understood by Cyberax · · Score: 2

      Ok, agreed.

      Except that I think that smallish inflation (around 2-3%) is actually good for the economy - it motivates people to invest the money rather than hoard it on low-interest deposits. And in a growing economy there ALWAYS will be people working on products that are not competitive - because there are companies constantly improving their products, so at any given time there'll be some outcompeted players. And purely from empiric studies it seems impossible to have robust economic growth with low inflation unless you are a resource exporting country.

    19. Re:I never have understood by MrBigInThePants · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You Americans just crack me up. Always arguing whether the demcratic party (i.e: The big business party) is better than the republicans (i.e. the big business party)

      Its like arguing whether Stalin or Hitler were more evil...

    20. Re:I never have understood by TubeSteak · · Score: 4, Informative

      See: The Battle of Bretton Woods. It really is pretty fascinating.

      A more useful answer is inertia.

      After England's Sterling lost its place as reserve currency for the world, the USA's massive gold reserves (>50% of the world's holdings) let the US peg the Dollar to gold and everyone else pegged their currency to the Dollar (aka the Bretton Woods system).

      Of course, (puts on flame suit) because gold standards are actually a terrible idea, the USA's overprinting of cash ended up causing exchange rate imbalances and Europeans started cashing in their dollars for gold.

      So Nixon ended the gold standard and inertia + economic strength and maneuvering has kept the Dollar as the global reserve currency for 43 years.

      --
      [Fuck Beta]
      o0t!
    21. Re:I never have understood by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

      It has little to nothing to do with usury laws and everything to do with the Jewish diaspora. Jews were not the only lenders. There were and still are banking dynasties that are Christian. Also, just think about it: birth control is also forbidden Catholics but Catholics use birth control nearly as much as any other group.

      What's important in banking and finance is connections. Have you ever written a check? Modern checks are nearly identical to the negotiable bills passed around over 500+ years ago. What does it say where you enter the payee? It says "Pay to the order of". That's a command, a command to the drawee (i.e. the bank) to pay whomever the payee/drawer (you) tells them to pay. When somebody cashes your check they don't normally go to _your_ bank. Instead, they endorse the check to somebody else. Usually their bank, but it could be anybody. A check could be endorsed a dozen times before it ever reaches your bank and the monies deducted from your account. (You used to have to sign a check before cashing it--a signature without a "pay to the order of" or other instructions is called open endorsement, which mean anyone who holds the check effectively becomes the payee. But if you were smart you'd write "pay any bank" to make sure if you dropped the check somebody couldn't just pick it up and cash it themselves--it would be illegal but getting your money back meant you had to track them down, whereas a bank who pays a check not in the chain of endorsements is liable themselves. In recent years the law has changed so that an explicit endorsement is not required when handing a check to your bank. Now they just act as your agent.)

      Then, as now, it takes an incredible degree of trust to accept a check. You're immediately out a good or service, and all you have is a piece of paper that might eventually put cash in your hand. You want to make sure that the person or entity upon whom the payer is drawing the check is reputable. In other words, if the check is a command to Leroy Thompson to pay you, rather than to the Bank of California, you're not gonna trust it. How easy is it going to be find Leroy Thompson so he can pay your debt. Will somebody else accept a check drawn on Leroy? If not you have to physically track Leroy down yourself to get your money. That sucks if Leroy is 5,000 miles away. Of course, maybe the check is forged and the Bank of California never pays out, either. But fraud is a secondary concern. You just want to make sure that, presuming everything is on the up-and-up, you're gonna get your money without too much hassle.

      That's where the Jewish diaspora comes in. Jews traveled. More importantly, large Jewish families would often spread out. That meant a prominent Jew in London would be familiar with and trust a prominent Jew in Milan and be willing to accept checks from Londoners drawn upon the accounts in Milan, thus providing a way for a London buyer to effectively transfer money to the Milan seller. Long story short, from there emerged a network of Jewish bankers who could facilitate the transfer of money reliably and consistently.

      Jews weren't the only ones capable of doing this. Before the Jews it was the Italian Catholics who dominated financing because they had the best business networks around Europe. And in any event no one groups controlled it all, not today, not yesterday. The banking industry is a wonder of decentralization. Somewhat ironically nearly the complete opposite of the investment industry, which is highly centralized. But banking has to be decentralized by it's very nature because the commerce it supports is completely decentralized. Banking is simply the moving around of money necessary for distant buyers and sellers to transact together. Banking cannot be centralized, at least not fundamentally, because there's nothing to prevent some random person or company (Leroy Inc) from taking deposits permitting businesses to drawn those accounts using checks and similar instruments. And if Leroy is trustworthy and makes it quick and easy for a seller to get m

    22. Re:I never have understood by narf0708 · · Score: 5, Informative

      Japan/Germany - they couldn't REACH us to do much damage, even if they'd wanted to.

      That's just not true. The German u-boats in particular were very much able to reach us, and cause significant damage. Operation Drumbeat in particular was able to do a surprising amount of damage. With only 5 u-boats, they were able to sink 25 American ships, many of them within sight of major US cities such as New York and Boston, all in the span of a single month.

      Over the next few months, they managed to sink 22% of our tanker capacity, and well more than 2 million tons of cargo shiping.

      It got to the point where the u-boat commanders were calling the time from January to August in 1942 the "American Shooting Season," and east coast cities and towns had to be blacked out after dark for most of the remainder of the war.

      They couldn't invade, but Germans could certainly reach us all right.

      --
      "Violence is not the answer. Violence is the question. The answer is yes."
    23. Re:I never have understood by jmcvetta · · Score: 2

      The US on the other hand is a large healthy democracy

      For certain values of "healthy" that include "largely dysfunctional".

    24. Re:I never have understood by __aanbvm4272 · · Score: 2

      "but Germans could certainly reach us all right." How many whole cities of ours did they fire bomb? How many of our Jews were killed? Yes an ocean is a big buffer. That's why we insist on one from now on.

    25. Re:I never have understood by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Not really

      The debt from the stimulus is similar in comparison to GDP to the debt taken on during the Great Depression/WW2

      That was mostly paid off by the late 70's by high taxes on the wealthy

      All of the heat and noise that you hear there days is generated by the wealthy people who do not want their taxes raised

      If you think that they have your best interests in mind, then you are mistaken

    26. Re:I never have understood by unity · · Score: 2
      This is a great informative read: http://archive.lewrockwell.com...

      It all ended on August 15, 1971, when Nixon closed the gold window and refused to pay out any of our remaining 280 million ounces of gold. In essence, we declared our insolvency and everyone recognized some other monetary system had to be devised in order to bring stability to the markets. Amazingly, a new system was devised which allowed the U.S. to operate the printing presses for the world reserve currency with no restraints placed on it — not even a pretense of gold convertibility, none whatsoever! Though the new policy was even more deeply flawed, it nevertheless opened the door for dollar hegemony to spread. Realizing the world was embarking on something new and mind-boggling, elite money managers, with especially strong support from U.S. authorities, struck an agreement with OPEC to price oil in U.S. dollars exclusively for all worldwide transactions. This gave the dollar a special place among world currencies and in essence “backed” the dollar with oil. In return, the U.S. promised to protect the various oil-rich kingdoms in the Persian Gulf against threat of invasion or domestic coup. This arrangement helped ignite the radical Islamic movement among those who resented our influence in the region. The arrangement gave the dollar artificial strength, with tremendous financial benefits for the United States. It allowed us to export our monetary inflation by buying oil and other goods at a great discount as dollar influence flourished.

  4. Move over USA, it's China's time to shine now... by bogaboga · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Yes, you read it correctly. It's now China's time. to shine.

    As we debate the real meaning of these numbers, let's remember that our economy is mostly financed by debt. We're indebted to those nations we despise.

    Sadly, the ordinary American just doesn't get it.

  5. Re:Do as others do by halivar · · Score: 2

    Naw, they did ok on that score right near home.

  6. Re:Move over USA, it's China's time to shine now.. by wiggles · · Score: 5, Informative

    Most of our debt is owned not by foreign governments but by the federal government itself, mostly between the Fed and Social Security - we've been dumping surplus receipts from the payroll tax into T-bills for years.

    Actual debt owned by foreign governments - combined - is only about a third of the total debt.

  7. Re:"Looms" is not a transitive verb by pla · · Score: 3, Informative

    It can, however, stand on its own, making the "Hamming-correct" headline read as follows:

    "Serious Economic Crisis Looms; Russian China May Help".

    So clearly, flatware manufactured in Russia might just save us all from the looming non-specific economic crisis. Time to open a Pottery Barn in Moscow!

  8. Re:Move over USA, it's China's time to shine now.. by wiggles · · Score: 5, Informative

    Source here:

    http://www.factcheck.org/2013/...

  9. China has to buy US bonds ... by drnb · · Score: 5, Interesting

    China has to buy US bonds. They mangage/manipulate their currency so that there is effectively a huge discount to all products and services in China. This discount on *everything* is what really drives relocating manufacturing to China not so much wages.

    To force the exchange rate to a level that provides this effective discount they need to control the US dollars in their economy. So all the merchants/suppliers being paid is US dollars need to sell those dollars to the gov't and then the gov't needs to remove these dollars from the economy. Buying US bonds does this through the magic of international accounting.

    Yes, this is an accounting trick but this is how the calculation of exchange rates work. At least that's how our macro econ professor explained things a few years ago. China can't stop buying US Bonds because then it would lose control of the exchange rate and lose its primary competitive advantage.

    1. Re:China has to buy US bonds ... by Hognoxious · · Score: 2

      Off the top of my head, they'd buy them on the secondary market, and via proxies or other intermediaries.

      I'm sure there are other ways.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  10. Morons should read some economic history by mveloso · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Actually, you really don't get it.

    The financial system is fundamentally held together by one thing: trust. The US Dollar isn't the key currency because the US was the largest economy, or because we have the most weapons - although those things factor into it. The US Dollar is where it is because the US has the political will and ability to support the world financial system when things go bad, even though those actions may cause severe short-term problems in its own economy.

    Do you trust China to manage your currency? Even the Chinese don't trust their government when it comes to money. Russia? The EU?

    Good luck with that.

    1. Re:Morons should read some economic history by Rei · · Score: 4, Interesting

      China's in this thing with Russia for precisely one thing: China. They're taking advantage of a weakened Russia to strike deals that they never would have gotten before. A good example is the "Power of Siberia" gas pipeline deal that they signed for a few years back. China's been trying for years to get Russia to bite at bargain-basement prices that leave almost no profit for Gazprom (perhaps even a slight negative that would have to be somewhat subsidized by the government's gas royalties), and Russia had been refusing. Then they sign the exact same deal they'd been refusing a few months ago and herald it as a great victory.

      China has Russia in an excellent position and is going to squeeze every drop of potential profit out of their bad situation that they can. And Russia will herald it as a glorious blow to the west all the way down.

      That said - even China's GDP doesn't compare to the sanction imposers (US + Europe + Japan + misc), all the leverage multipliers of global banking and fiat currency that the sanction imposers have aside. Even if China's goal was to break sanctions - which it's not - it's just not big enough, it's a third their size. And Russia a trivial fraction of that. And the multipliers of controlling the banking system and a fiat currency are very real. Throw trade into the picture, forget it - Moscow is closer to Newfoundland and Liberia than it is to Beijing. There's a giant barren wasteland between the two. They have a border but it's more of a barrier than a facilitator for trade.

      As the very article linked by Slashdot put it:

      "In the current conditions, any help is very welcome," Vladimir Miklashevsky, a strategist at Danske Bank A/S, said by e-mail. "Yet, it can't substitute the losses of the Russian banking system and economy from western sanctions."

      --
      I am a proud traitor to my species in alliance with my mother the Earth in opposition to those who would destroy her.
    2. Re:Morons should read some economic history by rahvin112 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I agree with you about trust but don't about the reasons why.

      The US dollar has several important advantages.

      1. Trust as you said, but encompasses several factors. The first is that the US's separation of powers provides a guarantee that no matter what is politically expedient or the people want without concurrence by all three branches it won't happen. Two the independence of the US court system is very powerful and the laws and case law that governs financial transactions is highly defined and well understood. This results in a system where foreigners are treated the same in financial transaction as US citizens and corporations. This is emboldened by the restraint congress shows towards the financial system, and the unwillingness of our politicians to slaughter the golden goose under any circumstance. The final component of the trust lies with the much maligned US federal reserve system. The US has basically put the private banking system in charge of the economy and they are chartered to maintain inflation between 1 and 2%. They have demonstrated this several times by slaughtering the late 1970's economy to halt inflation that was higher than 3%, even against the complaints and maneuvering of president Carter and again under the second Regan administration and most recently with QE1, 2 and 3.

      2. The trust in the system builds in another important factor and that is the transparency of our system. Almost everything is done in the open, the Fed doesn't make a move without warning about it for weeks or more frequently months and years. There are only one or two other systems which even have this.

      3. Trust combined with Transparency yields Stability. Behind the Fed's primary mandate on inflation their second most important objective is stability. They've demonstrated absolute devotion that they will do whatever it takes to maintain stability in the system. This was demonstrated most recently with the QE's. The Fed basically created more than 4 trillion dollars out of thin air and gave it to the banks to do with whatever they wanted. This injected massive liquidity into the system at its most broken point and restarted lending because the banks were handed all that money and weren't charged any interest for it. Many people (particularly Edrogan of Turkey) don't realize the boom in the BRICS group was a direct result of all this free money. The banks took those trillions and invested it in systems that offered the highest possible return and this made massive dollars available in those markets propelling their economies forward. But the end of QE means the end of free money and a return of the slow growth to these nations along with all those trillions being pulled bank into the US system. Stability is one of the Dollars most important attributes. It's why it's the currency of choice in dozens of nations around the world, from countries like Zimbabwe that have no local currency to countries like Venezuela that are seeing hyper inflation to Argentina who has a love affair with the stability of the dollar.

      4. Is the most complicated attribute, it ties two concepts together and that is the US governments willingness to run massive trade deficits to allow enough dollars to flow outward to satisfy demand and the Feds willingness to flood the market with dollars if they are needed to maintain that inflation mandate. This allows the dollar to have trillions of dollars floating all around the world completely out of US control.

      The UK is the only nation I'm aware of that met conditions 1-3. The pound would likely still be a major player but for two reasons. The first is that at the end of the war the UK government was leveraged (indebted) to 250% of GDP (the Tea Party was created out of the idea of 100% of GDP). They were also severely economically damaged during the war. London had massive infrastructure (capital) damage and the UK had lost billions of pounds. Not the least of which was the several billion pounds (2014 pound) of equipment lost during the Dunkirk evacuation. But most importa

  11. Oil prices loom is more like it... by Bob_Who · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Too bad we're not big importers of Borscht.

    Its interesting how "economic sanctions" are no match for an OPEC decision to increase production. Even at lower prices with increased U.S. production and fracking, they did not waiver at market price. This will eventually hurt everyone who invested in shale, back when the market was twice the price. The middle east continues to be able to pull oil from the ground for about one half the cost...maybe even less. Of course, nothing lasts forever, but it seems the oil has been the biggest stick there is when it comes to economic pressures. It sure is a lot easier to shoot down air traffic over the Ukraine when oil is pegged at $120 a barrel. Now Putin is gonna be happy just sipping the borscht and saving the warfare for summertime, perhaps.

  12. Re:Except that they have no debts by jeffmflanagan · · Score: 3, Insightful

    >then Obama gave in to Castro, basically ending another "cold war" but this time with USA's political defeat,

    That's absurd propaganda from the ignorant conservatives. They hate all progress, and are learning-disabled due to preferring dogma over evidence, so it's best to ignore them.

  13. Re:Move over USA, it's China's time to shine now.. by halivar · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Wait until China's property bubble bursts. It's happening and it ain't gonna be pretty for anyone (us included).

  14. As Russian by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    As Russian, I might add that if China will help Russia, it will simply absorb Russian, digest it, and in not far near distant future, we might see China expanding its territories a bit close to Europe. To be honest, I am highly pessimistic about future of my country at this point.

    Unless Europe and US will try to integrate Russia into "West", China will take over. China is more dynamic, more capable and way way less corrupt. No way country with population of 140 million(and rapidly declining) can reside on 1/6 earth's land territory. I am hoping Putin's will be squashed (and I dough it will happened), and Europe and US will go through painful, long integration process.

    Saddest part of all, country is becoming a European "Hamas".

    1. Re:As Russian by Hognoxious · · Score: 2

      I saw a TV program some time ago about how depopulated some parts of Eastern Russia are. There was a village that looked like it had 300 people in it; there was just an old couple.

      If that's typical the Chinese could simply walk into half the country and it'd be months before anybody even noticed.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    2. Re:As Russian by Fire_Wraith · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Based on my understanding of history, I don't think China will ever wipe out Russia. Russia (and Russians) are simply too tough and stubborn. You've survived and fought off all comers for centuries - Mongols, French, Germans, etc. (Though China will probably try and buy up the rights to much of the material resources, much as they do in Africa and elsewhere)

      That said, I do think it would be better for everyone involved if Russia was better integrated with Europe/USA. I think Russian Culture/Russians are pretty cool, and it saddens me the way things have gone recently. I wish humanity would realize that we have better things to do than kill each other over land and nationality.

    3. Re:As Russian by Cyberax · · Score: 3, Interesting

      There's a reason why Eastern territories of Russia are sparsely populated. The chief reason is that it simply makes no sense to live there. Just look at Canada - it has huge tracts of land, yet almost nobody lives north of Edmonton.

    4. Re:As Russian by ElusiveJoe · · Score: 4, Interesting

      China invasion is a popular scarecrow in Russia, but it will not happen. Thinking anyone is envy of big Russian territories boosts the Russian self-esteem, but it is a lie. Rarely anyone thinks what will China actually do after it had sucessfully invaded Siberia.

      The Siberian lands are hostile. Both Tsarist Russia and USSR managed to set up cities there only by propaganda and forced relocation. It's better to set up a puppet government and suck out all resources than to actually invade a country. Which is what is happening right now.

      The only thing that might happen is that some China leaders will try to gain a small territory in order to earn political points at home. But that can happen only after Taiwan has been be conquered, which is still a big problem for them.

      The future of Siberia is grim, it will probably continue to collapse into a No man's land, scarcely populated territory without any laws, ruled by local mafia leaders. Something like Libya is today. And no one will really care about it, other than buying oil from whoever sells it. Again, like Libya.

    5. Re:As Russian by Guspaz · · Score: 3, Informative

      90% of Canada's population is within 160KM of the southern US border. Add the Calgary and Edmonton metro areas and you're up to 97% of the population.

    6. Re:As Russian by fonos · · Score: 2

      When is the last time you heard of China invading a foreign country without being asked by that country's government for help?

    7. Re:As Russian by aralin · · Score: 5, Interesting

      This guy is not Russian. First of all, he is using the propaganda points that US is spreading in Russia, the fear that China will take part of their territory. It is one of the talking points. Second, he is making homophone mistakes (doubt -> dough) that only native speakers make or sometimes people who use english for 10-20 years or so and he is not making any of the grammar and preposition mistakes common for foreign speakers. It is sad to see our discussion here on slashdot tainted by spooks.

      --
      If programs would be read like poetry, most programmers would be Vogons.
    8. Re:As Russian by Evtim · · Score: 2

      It is a general trend of the Slavic peoples. There is only one way to "deal" with us --> total extermination. Either you kill us all, or you the invader, will become like us or we will just sit and take it until the invader is no more. I mean my country survived 482 years of ottoman occupation combined with systematic extermination of our culture, history and our gene pool [That's a horrific but fascinating story --> every few years they took one child from every family; refusal was punished by death; to be indoctrinated and raised as servants of the Empire. However, because they selected the brightest and best this special corp of mostly officers became so powerful that they started changing sultans and play the real politic. Turks would bribe officials so that their children would be accepted in the corp as christian kids --> it gave very good career prospects. At the end it was that corp that was the strongest opponent of the reformation of Turkey and Ataturk had to extinguish them. Anyway, it is estimated that 3-4 million children were collected from my country alone; this procedure was going on for hundreds of years].

      Now, if you want to harm the Slavs the best thing to do [this is one of the biggest revelations of global politics] is.........leave us alone!! The greatest enemy of the Slavs is us. Leave Russia alone and they will keep the endless circle of extremely poor governing they have enjoyed always. But threaten us or try to conquer and subjugate us and we will stubbornly dig our heels and you will loose. As one of the fabulous modern day Russian writers [Victor Pelevin] said in one of his books "Of course there is an anti-Russian conspiracy. The problem is that all the adult population of Russia is participating in it"

  15. Re:Except that they have no debts by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    Except that I'm a european socialist, and I actually like Cuba. Are these guys ignorant conservatives too?
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Not that I agree with the WaPo's ideas that much, they say that the cuban "regime" was falling before Obama "bailed it out", but that's just false, it wasn't going to fall anytime soon, and Castro's successor has already been picked. Obama simply realized that the US strategy failed.

  16. Re:"Looms" is not a transitive verb by jones_supa · · Score: 2

    Right, I see it now.

  17. Economic crisis is peanuts vs Crimean gem trophy by Trachman · · Score: 3, Interesting

    This economic crisis can be comparable to the fever that occurred after annexing significant piece of land in a prime location. If Russia will survive it, they will be stronger, meaner, richer, better diversified. Russia for more than a decade have been preparing for this scenario.

    Occupied Crimea and Donbass represent an area of approximately 42 thousand square meters and had a population of approximately 6 million people (actual number will be lower due to the war). The area is larger than Switzerland and population is comparable to Austria. The Crimea is a prime sub-tropic location, a desirable trophy to Russia who has abundance of land in cold climate. Crimean peninsula is surrounded by sea and has significant untapped oil and gas reserves. To summarized, this is an incredibly valuable piece of land and Russia will not give it up at any cost even if they need to wage a nuclear war.

    For Russia adding Switzerland size country economic crisis is an incredibly low price to pay. Russians have stashed away significant foreign currency reserves and have been waiting for this precise reaction from the west.

    It is time for the west to impose a reverse Iron curtain on Russia so that Russians could enjoy and continue their relationship with China and North Korea.

    West lost the moment Russia wiped their arse with 1994 Budapest memorandum which had to guarantee territorial integrity of Ukraine.

  18. Re:Sovereign default by Rei · · Score: 4, Interesting

    If it comes down to military force stopping loss of assets for failure to pay debt, then you're saying "stop all international trade with me this instant".

    Russia imports nearly 40% of its food. So, say hello to the largest famine of this century.

    --
    I am a proud traitor to my species in alliance with my mother the Earth in opposition to those who would destroy her.
  19. Re:Except that they have no debts by mlts · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Actually, it has been a good month for the US, other than the DPRK fiasco:

    1: Cuba opening up (assuming Congress lifts the trade embargo) is only going to improve the economy of both places. The Cold War-era foreign policies that were in place in the US past had to get tossed. This isn't a defeat... it is a move forward. Calling it a "defeat" would be calling the fact that a good number of nukes were removed from service as part of a treaty, a "defeat".

    2: The CIA torture reports were a festering boil, and it had to be lanced sooner or later, and now was probably one of the better times. The fact that it was made public and made known that this is not how the US handles itself these days is quite important. It only goes up from here. The days of torture are behind now.

    As for Russia, they are down, but definitely not out. If push came to shove and China didn't lend money, the US would. The reason is that Putin is nowhere near a saint, but a power vacuum in the largest country in the world is the stuff of nightmares. If Russia collapsed, every single country in the world would either be going for a part of that carcass or jumping in the fray to keep their enemies from doing that.

    Overall, Russia will emerge stronger. The low oil/gas prices are quite temporary. The profit may be less this quarter... but give it six months to a year, plus one incident in the Middle East... and oil will be back up to $150 a barrel and stay there for good. People know this, and nobody here in the US is going out and buying SUVs due to these temporary low prices. Solar might have slowed down slightly, but it is still progressing, mainly because virtually everyone knows that high gas prices will be back eventually.

  20. Petrostates by Tailhook · · Score: 5, Insightful

    China is going to prop up Venezuela. China is going to prop up Russia. Will China also prop up Iran when the price of oil pulls the rug out from under that bunch of fundies?

    I know China is all productive and stuff, not fighting self-inflicted headwinds of OSHA NLRA EPA etc., and having been fully exempted from any concern for carbon emissions for another three decades by Obama, but they can't actually afford to fully float all these fucked up petrostate kleptocracies. And what support they do offer will be highly conditional and hard to accept by these client states.

    Russia had a chance. Western money was pouring into Russia; places like Magnitogorsk have had huge investments from Europe and the US to build out decrepit steel works into some of the best specialty metal sites in the world. They could have seen 5% GDP growth for the next two decades.

    But they couldn't help themselves; Putin took off his shirt, said nasty things about 'Murica and the the Russian people made him dictator for life. So now, rather than emerging from a century of self-inflicted fail, they're making themselves into a European pariah state.

    Enjoy, Russia. You deserve it. Be nice to the Chinese I guess.

    --
    Maw! Fire up the karma burner!
  21. Re:and that's how we got the world of FIREFLY by ColdWetDog · · Score: 2

    Or not. The Chinese leadership isn't as all powerful as some make it out to be. They are skating a very fine line between their own interests and the goals and aspirations of an enormous population. Right now, they are keeping the population relatively comfortable and happy by reasonable economic growth. That llows them to continue their current attempts at World Domination. If that falters, then so does most of the goodwill and support the Chinese population gives to the government.

    In that sense, it may be more representative that the situation in the US.

    --
    Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  22. Re:Except that they have no debts by jmcvetta · · Score: 2

    The profit may be less this quarter... but give it six months to a year, plus one incident in the Middle East... and oil will be back up to $150 a barrel and stay there for good.

    I wouldn't be too surprised if there were some Ruskie military intelligence types working overtime to stir up some new troubles in the Middle East. The Saudi gub'mint isn't exactly popular with their subjects, are they?