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Serious Economic Crisis Looms In Russia, China May Help
jones_supa writes: Russia is facing a "full-blown economic crisis," a former finance minister has warned, as the country is forced to take emergency financial measures. The economy has been battered by a wave of sanctions (set by other countries as a result of tensions over Ukraine), geopolitical uncertainty, and falling oil prices. Analysts have warned that the Russian economy will not improve in the long run until the aforementioned conditions have also improved. The Central Bank of Russia said that a plan to loan Trust bank an amount of up to 30bn rubles ($54m) had been approved. Trust bank has run a series of advertisements featuring actor Bruce Willis in Russia, along with the ironic quote: "When I need money, I just take it." Anna Stupnytska, an economist at Fidelity Solutions, said that "the risk of a sovereign default is low, it's the corporate sector where the main vulnerabilities lie, and banking in particular. Due to sanctions, companies cannot refinance their debt as access to international markets has been essentially cut off."
Reader hackingbear adds:
Two Chinese ministers offered support for Russia as President Vladimir Putin seeks to shore up the plummeting ruble without depleting foreign-exchange reserves. Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng said expanding a currency swap between the two nations and making increased use of the yuan for bilateral trade would have the greatest impact in aiding Russia. Western governments and experts have been criticizing China for restricting exchange and suppressing the value of its currency, even though anyone who lived in China during the 1990's knew that the value of the yuan was cut to align with the (vibrant) black market. But as grandma has warned us, we should be careful of what we wish for. China has greatly sped up the relaxation of currency exchange and is promoting the yuan as an alternative to the dollar for global trade and finance. They've signed currency-swap agreements with 28 other central banks to encourage this. Once accomplished, and backed by China's growing military might, Renminbi would be a formidable competitor to U.S. Dollar, which would hamper the U.S's ability to borrow almost freely with banks around the world.
Most of our debt is owned not by foreign governments but by the federal government itself, mostly between the Fed and Social Security - we've been dumping surplus receipts from the payroll tax into T-bills for years.
Actual debt owned by foreign governments - combined - is only about a third of the total debt.
Source here:
http://www.factcheck.org/2013/...
China has to buy US bonds. They mangage/manipulate their currency so that there is effectively a huge discount to all products and services in China. This discount on *everything* is what really drives relocating manufacturing to China not so much wages.
To force the exchange rate to a level that provides this effective discount they need to control the US dollars in their economy. So all the merchants/suppliers being paid is US dollars need to sell those dollars to the gov't and then the gov't needs to remove these dollars from the economy. Buying US bonds does this through the magic of international accounting.
Yes, this is an accounting trick but this is how the calculation of exchange rates work. At least that's how our macro econ professor explained things a few years ago. China can't stop buying US Bonds because then it would lose control of the exchange rate and lose its primary competitive advantage.
I never have understood the world's fetish with the US dollar. Every nation has a currency. The US economy is just as prone to stagnation, deficit, over, and under valuing as any other currency.
I'd like nothing better than to see the Rothschild's hold on international markets broken. If it takes China to do that, then all power to China in the endeavour.
You can thank Harry Dexter White for that. (And if you're American, you should thank him. Otherwise, maybe not.) See: The Battle of Bretton Woods. It really is pretty fascinating.
Some privacy policy Slashdot.
Actually, you really don't get it.
The financial system is fundamentally held together by one thing: trust. The US Dollar isn't the key currency because the US was the largest economy, or because we have the most weapons - although those things factor into it. The US Dollar is where it is because the US has the political will and ability to support the world financial system when things go bad, even though those actions may cause severe short-term problems in its own economy.
Do you trust China to manage your currency? Even the Chinese don't trust their government when it comes to money. Russia? The EU?
Good luck with that.
If you do not understand the world's fetish with the U.S. dollar, you do not understand the state of the world after WWII. The wealth of the U.S. compared to the rest of the world at that time was staggering. Most of the developed world was in ruins. Only the U.S. remained relatively untouched by the war. The U.S. started mortgaging its future during the Reagan era, but it was the two Bush presidencies that did the most damage. Our deficit spending is now coming home to roost.
Too bad we're not big importers of Borscht.
Its interesting how "economic sanctions" are no match for an OPEC decision to increase production. Even at lower prices with increased U.S. production and fracking, they did not waiver at market price. This will eventually hurt everyone who invested in shale, back when the market was twice the price. The middle east continues to be able to pull oil from the ground for about one half the cost...maybe even less. Of course, nothing lasts forever, but it seems the oil has been the biggest stick there is when it comes to economic pressures. It sure is a lot easier to shoot down air traffic over the Ukraine when oil is pegged at $120 a barrel. Now Putin is gonna be happy just sipping the borscht and saving the warfare for summertime, perhaps.
The dollar is much like capitalism and democracy: it's the worst imaginable choice, except for everything else that's ever been tried. That's really it: the US government is just less effective at ruining the dollar than every other central bank for a major currency. Much of the current value of the euro is simply it's position as "second lest awful currency", a hedge against a reckless Fed.
When the dollar looked rough a few years back, interest in gold perked up, and interest in the Swiss franc bloomed, but the Swiss were apparently uncomfortable with the idea of becoming a reserve currency, and committed explicitly to falling with the euro. Odd choice, but there it was.
If the EU ever finishes collapsing, all the sovereign debt in the region blows up taking the Euro with it (it's only a question of when), and then finally recovers and regains financial credibility, then finally the dollar might be displaced, Or if China has it's inevitable revolution, and happens to emerge as a capitalist democracy, or when India or Brazil finally reach first-world status nation-wide. we might also have other credible currencies. But for now, the dollar is pretty much it.
That's not to say the dollar can't be destroyed if the Fed tries hard enough. But over the past downturn they were actually quite clever: while they were printing ~$2 T in no money via QE, they were removing ~$2T in money supply via bank reserves (while we continue with a 0 reserve banking system, the Fed paid attractive-enough interest that banks voluntarily increased their reserves to unprecedented levels). And the Fed did actually wind down QE. I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop, when that ~$2T in "Excess reserves" comes back into the money supply and turbo-charges inflation, but hopefully that will just be Carter-like, and not a currency collapse.
Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
As Russian, I might add that if China will help Russia, it will simply absorb Russian, digest it, and in not far near distant future, we might see China expanding its territories a bit close to Europe. To be honest, I am highly pessimistic about future of my country at this point.
Unless Europe and US will try to integrate Russia into "West", China will take over. China is more dynamic, more capable and way way less corrupt. No way country with population of 140 million(and rapidly declining) can reside on 1/6 earth's land territory. I am hoping Putin's will be squashed (and I dough it will happened), and Europe and US will go through painful, long integration process.
Saddest part of all, country is becoming a European "Hamas".
See, you used two words in that sentence. One of them is economy, the other is currency. They're related, but they're not the same. The thing that matters to most US residents is the economy -- specifically that it will be growing enough that it's possible to find a job in it which will secure a certain amount of output to secure one's well-being. (Residents saving for retirement benefit from both). The thing that matters to someone who borrow or lend or hold dollars isn't the economy per se, it's the fact that he can use that dollar in the future to buy a predictable amount of goods and services: price stability. (Stability is better than an increase in value of those dollars, because borrowing and lending need to balance each other out... besides, if you really wanted returns you'd find a real investment, not cash.)
The US has flirted with price stability issues in the past (look at the 1970s and early 1980s), but not to the extent that Russia is experiencing right now. Russia has issued additional rubles through the state-backed Rosneft bond offering (a bailout averting a bankruptcy for one of Putin's top cronies) which was the proximate cause of the ruble free-fall, and because of sanctions, falling oil prices, and general economic decline outside of the oil sector, the ability of a ruble to purchase valuable goods and services (like oil) in the future is in question. China, meanwhile, has its own set of currency controls (hence a thriving black market in RMB-USD) and central-bank interventions of a scope and magnitude which make QE and QE2 look small.
So what else are you going to use? Euros? No way, I thought you were worried about stagnation and deficits and stuff. Gold? Oh, yeah, obviously it's been an absolute MODEL of price stability lately, hahahahahahahahahaha... Bitcoin? Makes gold look good. Pounds sterling? Mmmaybe, in a pinch. Then most of the other currencies are on the small side, so it's harder to use them in high volumes.
The World Wide Web is dying. Soon, we shall have only the Internet.
If it comes down to military force stopping loss of assets for failure to pay debt, then you're saying "stop all international trade with me this instant".
Russia imports nearly 40% of its food. So, say hello to the largest famine of this century.
I am a proud traitor to my species in alliance with my mother the Earth in opposition to those who would destroy her.
That's not to say the dollar can't be destroyed if the Fed tries hard enough. But over the past downturn they were actually quite clever: while they were printing ~$2 T in no money via QE, they were removing ~$2T in money supply via bank reserves (while we continue with a 0 reserve banking system, the Fed paid attractive-enough interest that banks voluntarily increased their reserves to unprecedented levels).
That's not true. While Fed pays some interest on the reserves it also asks to pay interest on the loans. They are pretty much the same.
So no, the other shoe won't drop. The accumulation of reserves is caused by a liquidity trap and in this case monetary base can be expanded pretty much indefinitely. If you want proof then look at Japan - its central bank does not pay interest on the reserves and yet almost 5x increase in the monetary base failed to increase inflation even to 2%.
There are other examples - Switzerland increased its monetary supply by three times also doesn't pay interest on the reserves. And now it actually wants to institute a _negative_ interest rate (i.e. force banks to pay the central bank for holding the reserves). Yet Swiss Frank is still rock-solid.
China is going to prop up Venezuela. China is going to prop up Russia. Will China also prop up Iran when the price of oil pulls the rug out from under that bunch of fundies?
I know China is all productive and stuff, not fighting self-inflicted headwinds of OSHA NLRA EPA etc., and having been fully exempted from any concern for carbon emissions for another three decades by Obama, but they can't actually afford to fully float all these fucked up petrostate kleptocracies. And what support they do offer will be highly conditional and hard to accept by these client states.
Russia had a chance. Western money was pouring into Russia; places like Magnitogorsk have had huge investments from Europe and the US to build out decrepit steel works into some of the best specialty metal sites in the world. They could have seen 5% GDP growth for the next two decades.
But they couldn't help themselves; Putin took off his shirt, said nasty things about 'Murica and the the Russian people made him dictator for life. So now, rather than emerging from a century of self-inflicted fail, they're making themselves into a European pariah state.
Enjoy, Russia. You deserve it. Be nice to the Chinese I guess.
Maw! Fire up the karma burner!
Alas, we weren't tied up in silly alliances with people we detested like most of the European nations in both WW1 and WW2.
It should be noted, though, that the USA provided material and military assistance to the UK & USSR well before Japan attacked us, and in violation of US laws at the time (FDR was many things, including a tyrant who ignored the laws and Constitution when it suited him).
Google Reuben James sometime. Trust me, US Navy ships escorting convoys of war material to a belligerent isn't business as usual. Or wasn't then.
Note also that just because you're at war doesn't actually obligate other people to help you.
Note finally that we remained untouched by the war not because we entered late, but because we had thousands of miles of ocean between us and Japan/Germany - they couldn't REACH us to do much damage, even if they'd wanted to.
"I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
You Americans just crack me up. Always arguing whether the demcratic party (i.e: The big business party) is better than the republicans (i.e. the big business party)
Its like arguing whether Stalin or Hitler were more evil...
See: The Battle of Bretton Woods. It really is pretty fascinating.
A more useful answer is inertia.
After England's Sterling lost its place as reserve currency for the world, the USA's massive gold reserves (>50% of the world's holdings) let the US peg the Dollar to gold and everyone else pegged their currency to the Dollar (aka the Bretton Woods system).
Of course, (puts on flame suit) because gold standards are actually a terrible idea, the USA's overprinting of cash ended up causing exchange rate imbalances and Europeans started cashing in their dollars for gold.
So Nixon ended the gold standard and inertia + economic strength and maneuvering has kept the Dollar as the global reserve currency for 43 years.
[Fuck Beta]
o0t!
Japan/Germany - they couldn't REACH us to do much damage, even if they'd wanted to.
That's just not true. The German u-boats in particular were very much able to reach us, and cause significant damage. Operation Drumbeat in particular was able to do a surprising amount of damage. With only 5 u-boats, they were able to sink 25 American ships, many of them within sight of major US cities such as New York and Boston, all in the span of a single month.
Over the next few months, they managed to sink 22% of our tanker capacity, and well more than 2 million tons of cargo shiping.
It got to the point where the u-boat commanders were calling the time from January to August in 1942 the "American Shooting Season," and east coast cities and towns had to be blacked out after dark for most of the remainder of the war.
They couldn't invade, but Germans could certainly reach us all right.
"Violence is not the answer. Violence is the question. The answer is yes."