Is the Tablet Market In Outright Collapse? Data Suggests Yes

Nerval's Lobster writes Is the tablet market rapidly collapsing? Mobile-analytics firm Flurry doesn't come to quite that stark a conclusion, but things aren't looking too good for touch-screens that don't qualify as "phablets." According to Flurry's numbers, full-sized tablets accounted for only 11 percent of new devices in 2014, a decline from 2013, when that form-factor totaled 17 percent of the new-device market; small tablets experienced a smaller decline, falling from 12 percent to 11 percent of new devices between 2013 and 2014. (Meanwhile, phablets expanded from 4 percent of new devices in 2013 to 13 percent this year.) Boy Genius Report, for its part, looked at those numbers and decided that the tablet market is doomed: "Consumers happy with compact smartphones are not switching to larger iPhones for now, but former tablet buyers are." That's not to say people will stop using tablets, but the onetime theory that they would one day cannibalize all PCs looks increasingly nebulous.

Comments

Tablet?

[NotQuiteReal]

Oh, you mean my personal Netflix gadget.

I use it (google nexus 7) because the battery lasts a long time, it is portable, and it is specifically NOT my phone.

Re:Tablet?

[Isaac-1]

So what the hell are Phablets? Do we really need this new term that will be out of date in 6 months?

Re:Tablet?

[TechyImmigrant]

So what the hell are Phablets? Do we really need this new term that will be out of date in 6 months?

A phablet is a mythical tablet where they re-enable the disabled phone circuitry that's present in the chips.

Re:Tablet?

[Lord Apathy]

Also, tablets have a longer lifespan than your average smartphone. The tablet market could probably be called Mature now. Explosive growth is over, at least in the original Western Markets. You are looking at incremental growth and replacements.

I would imagine that you are correct. While they are technically computers I classify tablets as data display devices. You use them to display web pages, read ebooks, and pay bills with online banking. You really don't use them for general purpose computers.

While they have different processor speeds, screen sizes and run different OS, basically they all do the same thing. And its hard to improve on what they do. Once you find one that you are happy with, it should serve for years doing its job.

Not replacing PCs after all

[Anonymous Coward]

So will the UI makers retreat on their strategy of forcing PCs to use touch-inspired interfaces? We can only hope.

Market Saturation?

[tysonedwards]

Couldn't it also be that Tablets are a question of reaching market saturation, and that they fall more into the PC life cycle rather than the Cell Phone life cycle of being replaced yearly? From my personal experience, everywhere I go, I see people with tablets that are a year or two old because they are "good enough", lack compelling reasons to upgrade and also are typically appear significantly more expensive than their cell phone counterparts as they are typically sold unsubsidized.

Re:Market Saturation?

[jellomizer]

If I were to spend $525 for a tablet, I would keep it for 4 years. vs. Paying $200 every year and always staying a bit out of date.

I can tolerate being out of date for a year, however I do like to reward my sacrifice with something top of the line afterwards. When I upgrade I like a noticable difference.

 

Re:Tablets age well

[ShanghaiBill]

Lesson learned: don't build a good product that is going to work well for a long time.

Additional lesson learned: If you accidentally build an overly reliable product, as Apple did with the original iPad, you can still sabotage it by changing connectors, making it ineligible for OS upgrades, requiring new apps to include bulky "retina" images that aren't even used yet fill up very limited flash and RAM, and (starting Jan 1st) no longer allowing compatible apps to be submitted to the Apple App Store. There are many ways to retroactively screw your customers.

Re:Also..

[Noah Haders]

I suspect it's bad math. People don't internalize the fact that ipads and iphones cost the same price ($500-$800), and the difference is many people sign a binding contract to pay for their phones over time. so it seems cheap to update your phone (only $200!), while expensive to update your tablet.

Jeezus, percentage share cannot indicate a collaps

[shilly]

Nerval apparently doesn't understand the difference between relative and absolute, or they'd know it's possible to shrink as a percentage while growing in absolute terms. This isn't what's happening here, but iPad sales are certainly not collapsing, and iPads are really quite an important component of the market
  http://www.statista.com/statis...

lies, damned lies and statistics

[Tom]

Look, some genius "analyst" has figured out that people don't buy ten tablets per person. Next up: The food market collapses because people do not increase their daily food amount constantly.

This fixation on "growth" as if by magic everything would grow indefinitely is the primary evil in our world today. I've seen perfectly healthy companies with good revenue and solid profits being closed because they're not growing to the amount the corporate owners wish for.