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2014: Hottest Year On Record

Layzej writes Data from three major climate-tracking groups agree: The combined land and ocean surface temperatures hit new highs this year, according to the United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United Kingdom's Met Office and the World Meteorological Association. If December's figures are at least 0.76 degrees Fahrenheit (0.42 degrees Celsius) higher than the 20th century average, 2014 will beat the warmest years on record, NOAA said this month. The January-through-November period has already been noted as the warmest 11-month period in the past 135 years, according to NOAA's November Global Climate Report. Scientific American reports on five places that will help push 2014 into the global warming record books.

18 of 560 comments (clear)

  1. And on a local level... by Retron · · Score: 5, Informative

    ...it was the warmest year in the CET (Central England Temperature) record, which goes back to 1659.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ha...

    1. Re: And on a local level... by itzly · · Score: 3, Informative

      The errors bars do get bigger the further back we go, but they are small enough to make that conclusion.

    2. Re: And on a local level... by Retron · · Score: 4, Informative

      Manley's paper explains how the various figures were derived. The early figures are subject to a good deal of approximation, but if you leaf through the paper you'll see various sources have been used to compile the data. By the mid 1700s records are accurate enough that no approximation is needed. Although it's a far from perfect way of doing things, it's the best we have. The CET series is the world's longest monthly temperature record series, FWIW.

      "Before 1671 intstrumental readings are few; accordingly all values before 1671 have been rounded to whole degrees C. Regular thermometer readings began again in 1672. "

      Here's a link to the paper on the Royal Meteorological Society's website:
      http://www.rmets.org.uk/sites/...

    3. Re: And on a local level... by Layzej · · Score: 5, Informative

      I'd love to see references or articles how temperature is measured to this degree of accuracy then how they are aggregated to a single number

      Happy to oblige:

      http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monit...

      http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/...

      http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/...

      http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/...

  2. Re:Before or after? by itzly · · Score: 5, Informative
    The data is corrected and adjusted, not fudged. The methods have been disclosed.

    This is a legitimate question

    Since the answer is a trivial google search away, I doubt that. I found this in 5 seconds: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gist...

  3. Re:Go Nuclear by TheRaven64 · · Score: 3, Informative

    It takes more energy to produce a solar panel than it produces in its lifetime of use

    This isn't just bullshit, it's obvious bullshit. Buying panels at consumer prices has a measurable RoI, which is 3-10 years depending on various conditions (and most of the cost for consumer installations is the labour cost of the installation). Buying them at wholesale prices has a much shorter RoI. If they cost more energy to produce than they generate then even with manufacturing and raw material costs of zero then this wouldn't be possible.

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  4. Re:Propaganda by Layzej · · Score: 4, Informative

    No doubt man contributes to it, but Solar activity and earth history going back millions of years indicates this is a normal pattern shift.

    The temperature seems to be defying its historical link to solar activity. Based on solar activity we should have been seen fairly severe cooling over the last few decades: http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

  5. Re:Go Nuclear by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 3, Informative

    Even assuming that we do invent those magic baseload batteries soon, your all-renewable energy system is a wavery network (requiring a "smart grid", to be built from scratch at the cost of teradollar or so) of fluctuating sources requiring vast amounts of mechanical maintenance. I would rather have a few AP-1000s chugging away in secluded valleys while we work on getting thorium up to commercial speed.

    Cautionary tale: Germany is now in the throes of building out its smart grid. The flat-earth lobby, now that it no longer has anything nuclear yo protest, has turned its attention to stopping the new transmission lines needed to bring renewable power to market:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12...

  6. Re:noooo by itzly · · Score: 3, Informative

    It doesn't make sense to compare records from 55 million years ago with this century, unless you also keep in mind the difference in greenhouse gases, albedo, solar radiation, and whatever other influences there are. Also, as far as impact on modern societies, the recent temperature changes are much more relevant to us, than whatever happened millions or billions of years ago. We now have plenty of population centers near the coast, for example.

  7. Re:noooo by bzipitidoo · · Score: 5, Informative

    For some places, Climate Change will be a positive. But the net is hugely negative. 1/3 of the world's people are close enough to a coast that they will have to do something when sea levels rise.

    Climate Change is happening too fast for much life to cope. The speed of the change is all negative.

    The driver of Climate Change is Atmospheric Change. Everyone talks about warming, but all this CO2 has a lot of other effects. The other big effect is Ocean Acidification. This is deadly for shells and corals. The whole oceanic food chain is being strained to the limit from this, and from overfishing.

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  8. Re:Before or after? by Hardhead_7 · · Score: 4, Informative
    For those too lazy to click, here it is straight from NASA's FAQ

    Q. Why can't we use just raw data?
    A. Just averaging the raw data would give results that are highly dependent on the particular locations (latitude and elevation) and reporting periods of the actual weather stations; such results would mostly reflect those accidental circumstances rather than yield meaningful information about our climate.

    Q. Can you illustrate the above with a simple example?
    A. Assume, e.g., that a station at the bottom of a mountain sent in reports continuously starting in 1880 and assume that a station was built near the top of that mountain and started reporting in 1900. Since those new temperatures are much lower than the temperatures from the station in the valley, averaging the two temperature series would create a substantial temperature drop starting in 1900.

    Q. How can we combine the data of the two stations above in a meaningful way?
    A. What may be done before combining those data is to increase the new data or lower the old ones until the two series seem consistent. How much we have to adjust these data may be estimated by comparing the time period with reports from both stations: After the offset, the averages over the common period should be equal. (This is the basis for the GISS method). As new data become available, the offset determined using that method may change. This explains why additional recent data can impact also much earlier data in any regional or global time series.

    Another approach is to replace both series by their anomalies with respect to a fixed base period. This is the method used by the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) in the UK. The disadvantage is that stations that did not report during that whole base period cannot be used.

    More mathematically complex methods are used by NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NOAA/NCDC) and the Berkeley Earth Project, but the resulting differences are small.

  9. Re: noooo by ranton · · Score: 3, Informative

    I'm not anti-nuclear, but requiring other people to agree to your solution before you'll admit the problem exists is pretty pathetic bullshit.

    He never said he wouldn't admit the problem exists. He just wants people who aren't interested in real solutions to stop complaining about a lack of action.

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    -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
  10. Re:noooo by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 5, Informative

    The problem I have with global climate change "debate" is not that climate is changing, but that there is an assumption that the net effect will be negative. Some regions will surely become less hospitable, and some will become more hospitable. I'm disappointed that more studies haven't shown which will prevail (or if there will be a net neutral effect). Instead we just get fear mongering about famine and war.

    How can you say this when an entire third of the IPCC report (Working Group II) was dedicated to the "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" of climate change? They show the positive and negative affects (both direct and indirect).

    Here is a quote from the introduction of the Summary for Policymakers:

    The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change. It considers how impacts and risks related to climate change can be reduced and managed through adaptation and mitigation. The report assesses needs, options, opportunities, constraints, resilience, limits, and other aspects associated with adaptation.

  11. Re:Go Nuclear by Pope+Hagbard · · Score: 3, Informative

    Base load is so low that it is completely uninteresting.

    Spot the guy who doesn't know anything about power generation.

  12. Re: noooo by stjobe · · Score: 4, Informative

    We need these to store it. For 100.000 years.

    Sure. If we're stupid.

    If we're smart, we start using thorium reactors instead (so we don't add any more waste than necessary), and build some breeder/burner reactors to reduce the current waste handling to manageable amounts/time spans.

    Yeah, nuclear energy research has moved on from the 60's, even though we still use reactor designs from back then. We should really, really stop doing that.

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    "Total destruction the only solution" - Bob Marley
  13. Re:noooo by hamburger+lady · · Score: 3, Informative

    55 million years ago the global mean temperature was roughly 30C. that's compared to 14C today.

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  14. Re: noooo by RingDev · · Score: 2, Informative

    I would take a quick glance at the author/proprietor's wiki page: http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/A...

    It may shed some light as to why that specific site isn't exactly treated as though it has any scientific credence.

    -Rick

    --
    "Most people in the U.S. wouldn't know they live in a tyrannical state if it walked up and grabbed their junk." - MyFirs
  15. Re: noooo by BasilBrush · · Score: 1, Informative

    WatsUpWithThat blog has never presented "the best data". It's a crank anti-science web-blog.

    Even the concept that unadjusted data is better data is dumb conspiracy theory material.