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How Long Will It Take Streaming To Dominate the Music Business?

journovampire writes with this story about the booming music streaming business. "Streaming is on course to make more money for the U.S. music business than downloads and physical sales combined within the next three years. The U.S. appears poised for streaming to become its most valuable music format in either 2016 or 2017, according to MBW forecasts – so long as you include SoundExchange royalties generated by digital radio platforms like Pandora alongside subscription and ad-supported platforms like Spotify. But in the other three biggest recorded music markets in the world – France, Germany and Japan – the public appears more hesitant to allow streaming to take over."

32 of 169 comments (clear)

  1. No thanks by ArcadeMan · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I already have enough monthly bills.

    1. Re: No thanks by AvitarX · · Score: 5, Informative

      I'm thrilled with what I get for 9.95 with Google play.

      A selection of "radio" stations tailored to my interests and the time of day/day of week, with holidays accounted for, really good automatic station based on whatever I've been listening too lately, but within a genre, and the ability to have a library that I can side load to.

      It's increased my music spending a little, but made driving so much more pleasant.

      --
      Wow, sent an e-mail as suggested when clicking on "use classic" banner, and got a fast response that addressed my msg
    2. Re: No thanks by smithmc · · Score: 2

      +1 Insightful, if I could. And I'm not even sure it's increased my spending on music, since I haven't bought a CD in months. I was probably spending at least $10 a month before, anyway.

      --
      Downmodding is the refuge of the weak. Don't downmod, make a better argument!
    3. Re:No thanks by sycodon · · Score: 2

      Yep...iTunes and compatible player and you can listen to What you want, When you want, Where you want.

      I can't imagine being tied to an internet connection AND an entity on other end of the connection controlling things. Might as well just buy a freaking FM radio.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    4. Re:No thanks by SternisheFan · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yep...iTunes and compatible player and you can listen to What you want, When you want, Where you want.

      I can't imagine being tied to an internet connection AND an entity on other end of the connection controlling things. Might as well just buy a freaking FM radio.

      I've bought music since 8-track, vinyl record, cassette & CD days. MP3s are a God-send! I've ripped all my personnally bought music to MP3, keep it backed up on multiple computers/ usb/ microSD cards/ external hard drives. Also lots of borrowed CD's from the local library. I won't ever need to stream my music for a monthly fee, no reliance on an internet connection, it's just always there.

    5. Re:No thanks by cascadingstylesheet · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I already have enough monthly bills.

      Eh. I used to buy at least one CD per month. Each CD cost more than I pay now per month for streaming, and I got a couple of good songs and some filler (most of the time) instead of thousands of good songs.

      Yes, I could buy used CDs and store and organize them in my basement and digitize them all myself and store and back the digital files up in my own RAID array, and then they'd be mine, all mine my precioousssssss ...

      Or I can just pay 9.95/mo and not worry about any of that. I'll take option B.

  2. What about radio? by xxxJonBoyxxx · · Score: 3, Insightful

    >> money for the U.S. music business than downloads and physical sales

    What about radio? That seems like the closest competition. (When I use a streaming service, in large part it's because I want some background music without worrying about picking songs.)

    1. Re:What about radio? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Radio pays much, much less than streaming. The industry does not want anyone comparing streaming to radio, because it disrupts their "Pandora and Spotify are getting rich off the artists backs" narrative.

      http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/07/17/spotify-royalties-appear-to-be-awfully-high-despite-what-thom-yorke-says/

      "So, for a song to be played to one person (which is what Spotify is) the radio play gets .024 pence, the Spotify play gets 0.4 pence."

  3. Viable for artists? by s1d3track3D · · Score: 2

    The better question is how long will it take for streaming to be viable source of income for artists? The only people who make money via streaming are the aggregators.

    1. Re:Viable for artists? by Rinikusu · · Score: 3, Interesting

      My band(s) has already given up any notion of making any money on digital sales or streams, not to mention CDs. We press records and cassettes these days, and do CDRs of live show recordings and that's it. No CD press runs at all. Weird how it seems we're back in 1992. (CDs basically mean they sit around in boxes in the garage, taking up space. We've sold out of every record and (recently) cassette we've produced. It's still not a huge number (like 300 or so of each.. for a local band that's not bad) and none of us can quit our day jobs, but basically one record or one cassette sale is > everything we've gotten from digital at this point).

      --
      If you were me, you'd be good lookin'. - six string samurai
    2. Re:Viable for artists? by sound+vision · · Score: 2

      Hipsters are buying cassettes. Vinyl is too mainstream for them now. I know of several bands who have put out cassette releases in the past 5 years, usually they are limited-run, or only sold at shows, to maximize the hip factor. Vinyl at least gives you much better cover art and looks good on a wall - a cassette lets you... play it in your '95 Ford Windstar?

    3. Re:Viable for artists? by serviscope_minor · · Score: 2

      a cassette lets you... play it in your '95 Ford Windstar?

      Then when it tangles aronud the capstan, you can rip it out and hurl it out of the window in disgust.

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
  4. Streaming sucks by fustakrakich · · Score: 5, Insightful

    As long as you can be blocked based on location, it's no damn good. We have to tear down the borders to make it work the way the internet is supposed to work, wide open worldwide, otherwise just stick with torrents to get what you want when you want it.

    --
    “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
  5. I'm amazed by JustNiz · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I jsut don't get why all the people that will make streaming more popular than downloading are ignoring the obvious downsides of streaming vs. local storage:
    1) You can't listen to your music when you dont have an active internet connection.
    2) You're basically paying regularly/multiple times to hear the same music you could just pay for/download once.

    1. Re:I'm amazed by Hognoxious · · Score: 2

      The answer to the question would appear to be "when all the old farts like you, me, and MightyMartian are either dead or doolally".

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    2. Re:I'm amazed by Kuruk · · Score: 2

      Totally agree. With device storage going up and up. There is no point to having to run a data connection to the cloud to play music. Battery power alone makes the point.

      The cloud makes sense for syncing but streaming is wasteful for things like music where you will play the same song many times.

    3. Re:I'm amazed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Spotify lets you download tracks to your device.

    4. Re:I'm amazed by by+(1706743) · · Score: 2

      True. But 1) isn't a big issue for some people (always connected / commute always has service, etc.) -- not to mention the DRM aspect of downloading + local storage (which can sometimes render your files less-than-convenient). Regarding 2), yes, if you listen to the same songs. If your $10 monthly Google Play subscription means you listen to just 10 or so new songs a month, then it might be worth it to some. And I suspect that for many people, songs have a "shelf life" -- popular songs become un-popular, and the need for them is greatly reduced.

      Additionally -- and maybe this is just me -- I find the subscription model that Netflix uses very nice. There are certainly movies I've started on Netflix that I would never rent or pay for, but because there's no incremental cost in viewing another flick/starting a new TV show, why not give it a shot?

    5. Re:I'm amazed by bws111 · · Score: 2

      1) I don't care. Most of the time I am listening to music I either have an internet connection or am in my car with XM
      2) I consider 'ownership' vastly overrated. I have probably $3000 worth of paid for music I almost never listen to. My taste in music has changed often through the years. If I hear some of the old stuff, OK. If I don't, also OK. On the other hand, I really like being able to say 'today I want to hear classic rock, yesterday it was jazz, tomorrow maybe classical, maybe some trop rock later on, maybe some new adult music. Streaming lets me do that for a pretty low price. In addition, I have heard new music and even genres I never heard before, and like that.

    6. Re:I'm amazed by MyNicknameSucks · · Score: 2

      I'll take a stab at this.

      Twenty years ago, my wife and I would spend from about $100 a month to $200 on CDs. Most of the music we've bought on CD hasn't been listened to in a decade -- despite having every single note ripped and stored on a media server.

      Now, we spend $10.

      Just for giggles, I stream music from bands I like, even if I have the CD, just so they can get a couple bucks from me.

    7. Re:I'm amazed by HornWumpus · · Score: 2

      Older generations were also just like that when they were in middle school.

      Current kids will also grow out of it.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    8. Re:I'm amazed by vux984 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      You're basically paying regularly/multiple times to hear the same music you could just pay for/download once.

      True. On the other hand you don't have to buy songs you only listen 2 twice, or listen to for a week and then tire of never to listen to them again. Depends on your personality.

      The economics becomes a question of do you explore new music more or less than you return to old favorites.

      Because your right, if you just like pink floyd, then buy the discography and never pay for music again. Win!

      On the other hand if you've got 10,000 tracks in your itunes collection and not one of them has been listened to more than 3 times then what is the point of buying anything ever?

      Most of us are somewhere in between those two extremes. And at the right price points streaming becomes more sensible than buying.

      I'd take spotify at half the current price. I already sub scribe to netflix.

      1) You can't listen to your music when you dont have an active internet connection.

      Spotify has offline support. Its not quite as bad as you suggest.

    9. Re:I'm amazed by ArcadeMan · · Score: 3

      Just for giggles, I stream music from bands I like, even if I have the CD, just so they can get a couple bucks from me.

      Thank you for the 1/10th of a cent.

      Signed,
      the bands you like.

    10. Re:I'm amazed by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 2

      You forgot - They will eventually seek to make more revenue by adding ads that cut into the first few and last few seconds of the song, making it useless to record while generating revenue.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
  6. Re:Japan is easy to explain by MightyMartian · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I don't need it on physical CD, but I do need to actually own the music files themselves, in an unlocked non-DRM fashion. Basically, if I can't buy it as at least an MP3 that I can play on everything from an iPod to an FreeBSD workstation, the record label doesn't get my money. And I could care less about streaming.

    --
    The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
  7. Time to buy vinyl? by ponos · · Score: 3, Insightful

    This economy baffles me. I rent a house, lease a car, subscribe to a Adobe software, pay-per-view TV, stream music, and play online-DRM games and god knows what else. The day I stop having income, I don't own a thing. I am not by any means going back to the age of carrying chunks of gold on my person, but I get the impression property is quickly being replaced by service in too many aspects of our living. Although practical and convenient, this can only amplify the financial insecurity of the middle/lower classes.

    Well, if the shit hits the fan, I can always listen to my vinyl collection.

    1. Re:Time to buy vinyl? by Harvey+Manfrenjenson · · Score: 2

      Vinyl doesn't have a shuffle option.

      Novels don't have a shuffle option, either. The songs are in that order for a reason, or at least they should be! I'd hate to listen to Sgt. Pepper's on "shuffle"... Also $10 per record isn't necessarily such a "low price" for vinyl anymore... a lot of people just want to get rid of their LPs, and will sell them to you by the boxload.

  8. Hasn't it already? by damn_registrars · · Score: 2

    I can't buy a physical music CD that is more than 3 months old in any physical store any more. Even at that, if the CD isn't top40 it is highly unlikely I can find it anywhere. We used to have used music stores all over the place too, and they are all but extinct. Now the best music selection in town is ... at a book store, where their music area is less than the size of my kitchen.

    I'd say streaming and digital sales have already won.

    --
    Damn_registrars has no butt-hole. Damn_registrars has no use for a butt-hole.
  9. Disposable music by BlackHawk-666 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Streaming really only makes sense to me for disposable music, like modern pop music. You know the stuff. The candy sweet radio friendly tunes that are auto-tuned to hell and EQ'd and processed to sound just like a previously successful pop song. The stuff you can hear a few times then want to turn off the radio if it comes on again. I don't listen to that sort of music, it bores me, so I don't bother with a streaming account.

    I'm the sort of person who still buys albums, albeit on CD these days. I only buy the ones from artists which I think have a long shelf life and a lot of re-playability. I like the fact that I can toss on an album I've had for almost 30 years and just listen to it again, without needing an internet connection or a current subscription. I like that I get to hear the 'b-sides', the tracks which don't get promoted or aren't considered good enough for radio / streaming highlighting. I actually enjoy many of those tracks far more than the one or two that are there to sell the album. If an artist can't place 6-10 good tracks on a record, then I'm not really interested in hearing what they have to say.

    I rip all my CDs to lossless FLAC, iTunes, and MP3 at the same time, then store the archive quality FLACs on my media server. ITunes can't play back FLAC, so I basically don't use it any more, preferring XBMC to get the job done.

    I have about 350 albums now that I own and can playback whenever and wherever I choose without needing an internet connection or the permission of some greedy corporation who lock my playback down to only work on their hardware (I'm looking at you Apple!).

    I've been collecting music for about 30 years now and still have access to every track I bought (bar the early stuff on LP). If I subscribed to a service for 30 years, all I'd have at the end is the sense of regret I couldn't listen to any music any more, despite the thousands I had spent on it over the years. That's approximately $5400 at today's rates, about the same as I pay for close to 380 albums. The cost is about the same, but if I stopped collecting today, I'd still have 350 albums to listen to.

    --
    All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
  10. What about the QUALITY of sound? by ebusinessmedia1 · · Score: 2

    Unless you are getting streamed music that delivers the *full* recording experience, a lot of musical nuance will be wasted. How many people today, especially young people, have ever heard *all* of the audio quality that was recorded, delivered via streaming? It's true that much of the musical experience in a streamed file can be enjoyed, but it's a shame to see the fine nuances of musical overtones and distinctive instruments missed because you're not getting a full bandwidth or recording experience.

  11. "Will" it take? What? by elgholm · · Score: 2

    I live in Sweden, where Spotify rule. I, my family, all my relatives and all my friends have not bought a CD or an iTunes/whatever song for...sheaa..I don't really remember when I saw one of those... Maybe 2-3 years ago? Either way, the streaming music has already replaced the old way of doing things. It's just the music-industry trying hard to not make it look that way, since they make so much more money the old way. If my grandmother would actually buy me a CD, I would ask for the receipt. (She wouldn't though, since she knows I have Spotify).

    1. Re:"Will" it take? What? by sound+vision · · Score: 2

      What's wrong with both? I stream music at work when I just need background noise and don't particularly care what songs get played. I buy or torrent music for home when I know an album is good and want to keep it in perpetuity without it being subject to the whims of corporate licensing.
      I guess if you're the kind of person who only ever listened to the radio, streaming services would substitute perfectly for that (though still at cost). It doesn't replace a music archive in your actual ownership.