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What Happens When Betelgeuse Explodes?

StartsWithABang writes: One of the great, catastrophic truths of the Universe is that everything has an expiration date. And this includes every single point of light in the entire sky. The most massive stars will die in a spectacular supernova explosion when their final stage of core fuel runs out. At only an estimated 600 light years distant, Betelgeuse is one (along with Antares) of the closest red supergiants to us, and it's estimated to have only perhaps 100,000 years until it reaches the end of its life. Here's the story on what we can expect to see (and feel) on Earth when Betelgeuse explodes.

203 comments

  1. Nothing important. by siddesu · · Score: 0

    Our planning horizon is the next paycheck, not millenia, and we'll be long dead by then anyway. And by 'we', I mean the civilization. So, no reason to be concerned.

    1. Re:Nothing important. by Thanshin · · Score: 3, Funny

      Now you left me wondering about what's could possibly be the civilization's next paycheck.

    2. Re:Nothing important. by siddesu · · Score: 1

      The Club of Rome said total collapse 2040-ish. So far we're on track to get it, apparently ;)

    3. Re:Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Er, no.

      The Club of Rome said total collapse before 2000. Back in 1970. They've been saying this ever since I've been alive - just updating the date to keep the scam running.

      In the 1960s it was overpopulation that would kill us. It has been several other things since. But the two fixed points that they always make are that:

      1 - Human Civilisation is just about to collapse
      2 - The Club of Rome needs more money...

    4. Re:Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You've read some other Club of Rome work, not "The Limits to Growth"

    5. Re:Nothing important. by khallow · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The Club of Rome said total collapse 2040-ish.

      Even if they have, so what? There's two things to note. They've been wrong before.

      And second, total collapse isn't going to impact the developed world like it will the worst off parts of the world. Places like Africa or Asia would be hit far harder than places like North America or Europe. This is quite relevant because those are also the places causing most of the overpopulation problem in the first place.

      This is one of the ugly facts about overpopulation that groups like the Club of Rome tend to gloss over. Population growth is only happening in certain locations. And since the consequences of population growth also will happen in those same locations, it gives a strong disincentive to care if the shit hits the fan. We aren't all in this together.

      My point behind this is to point out what should be obvious. The developing world has the overpopulation problem and has the extreme vulnerability to global trade collapse. Meanwhile the developed world has fixed its shit more or less. Sure there's a few Californias and Greeces out there, but for the most part, the developed world is going to weather any "total collapse".

      The Club of Rome is all set to blame the people who aren't causing the problems. Why? Because that's where the money is.

    6. Re:Nothing important. by itzly · · Score: 0

      but for the most part, the developed world is going to weather any "total collapse".

      How about the millions of people in Africa that are trying to get to Europe ? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new...

    7. Re:Nothing important. by Z00L00K · · Score: 1

      Overpopulation is still a risk.

      --
      If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker would destroy civilization.
    8. Re:Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why you stupid people all believe it was a scam. That people can't exactly calculate when it's the end that's okay. But every little bit intelligent person, should be able to think out themselves, that if we continue to pollute our environment, that we won't have a future. Enough SF movies that show how terrible our future can be. Having a bunch of idiots as a government doesn't help ofcourse...

    9. Re:Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Overpopulation is self-adjusting. It's not pretty, famine, war and diseases comes in to play, but it is still self-adjusting.
      We are not going to see the end of the world because of it.

    10. Re:Nothing important. by Gavagai80 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If Betelgeuse was going to supernova tomorrow, there'd still be nothing to be concerned about -- just something to be excited about.

      --
      This space intentionally left blank
    11. Re:Nothing important. by Richard_at_work · · Score: 2

      And second, total collapse isn't going to impact the developed world like it will the worst off parts of the world. Places like Africa or Asia would be hit far harder than places like North America or Europe.

      Thats an odd thing to say, considering there are millions of people in Africa that still live as if the developed world doesn't exist - subsistence farming using manual labour, hoes and oxen (just like we did a few hundred years ago), little to no access to modern medical practices (just like us a few hundred years ago), little access to education (just like us a few hundred years ago), little access to electricity (just like us a few hundred years ago) etc etc.

      These people go about their daily lives tending the fields, trading small amounts of produce with each other and the surrounding villages, living in mud huts, boiling water over wood burning fires and treating broken bones with wooden splints. If someone can afford a token amount of modern medical help, they walk (or get carried) for dozens of miles to attend a clinic, otherwise they make do without.

      In the event of a global collapse, these people will simply carry on as before.

    12. Re:Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Says the anonymous coward while an Ebola pandemic ravages Africa.

      "NOM NOM NOM NOM!"
      "You must try this new dish love! It's delicious and outrageously inexpensive. It virtually grows on trees!"

      How diverse is the human genome's resistance to plague outbreaks? Moses said: "Shoop Da Whoop!"

    13. Re:Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I once tried fitting a sine wave to human population levels using regression. The problem was that the residuals gave a margin of error in the range of centuries. Continuously compound interest equation accumulates error in predicted growth rate logarithmically. You can take a moving average of the growth rate but you're still going to end up with predictions that a virtually useless unless you can find a more sophisticated model to predict the tipping point.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catastrophe_theory

      Bitcoin price, tulip mania, 2007 Real Estate Bubble, San Francisco Real Estate, Oil Prices, etc. It's like making bets on if it will rain 2 years in the future. Sure, you can generate a probability model, but your ability to get insight beyond historical data is pretty much non-existent so you might as well play the lottery.

    14. Re:Nothing important. by MouseTheLuckyDog · · Score: 1

      Overpopulation is self-adjusting. It's not pretty, famine, war and diseases comes in to play, but it is still self-adjusting.
      We are not going to see the end of the world because of it.

      As the technological level of a civilisation increases, the birth rate decreases. So population does tend to be seld adjusting.

    15. Re: Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We'll exterminate them. Europe is for Aryan uebermensch, not negroid shit monkeys.

    16. Re:Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "As the technological level of porn increases, the birth rate decreases. So population does tend to be seld adjusting."

      FTFY.

    17. Re:Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Club of Rome sucks. You can just freeze that thing and crack it with a hammer. I saw some guy do it on The Today Show.

    18. Re:Nothing important. by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1, Offtopic

      Says the anonymous coward while an Ebola pandemic ravages Africa.

      Pandemic???

      Africa has 1.1 billion people. With an average life expectancy of 71 years. Which means about 15 million deaths per year.

      Ebola has killed about 8000 people in the last 15 months.

      Which means that ebola has accounted for ~0.04% of African deaths since the end of 2013.

      Sorry, 0.04% of your deathrate does not a pandemic make....

      Note, by the by, that there were more traffic deaths in each of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Sudan, Uganda, and the United Republic of Tanzania then there were ebola deaths in all of Africa over the last 15 months.

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    19. Re:Nothing important. by Lumpy · · Score: 1

      Not Ebola, the drooling morons that refuse to vaccinate their kids. THEY are the problem.

      --
      Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    20. Re:Nothing important. by plopez · · Score: 0

      One can only hope they Darwin themselves out.

      --
      putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
    21. Re:Nothing important. by plopez · · Score: 1

      How would we know?

      --
      putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
    22. Re:Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, and the rest of us with them.

    23. Re:Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, get back to me when the WHO has this shit under control. Declaring victory over Ebola at 120 to 150 new cases each week is like declaring victory in Iraq when ISIS is still blitzkrieging cities.

      http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/who-official-concerned-as-decline-in-ebola-cases-levels-off/article23132190/

      Ebola started with 1 case in 4 weeks. We need 0 cases in 4 weeks before we can consider this a victory. IE: we're not even fucking close and continued investment is going to asymptotically evade total victory for the foreseeable future. Consequence: we only need a single case to escape quarantine and we're back to square one.

      Keep slapping yourself on the back.

    24. Re:Nothing important. by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Er, no.

      Mankind did stuff to 'prevent' the dooms day scenarios of the CoR. Hence the probably date of no return got postponed.

      Obviously some nations did not do enough, e.g. looking at the drought situations in the USA and the general farming situations where the draughts are not 'that server' yet.

      The idea that the CoR needs money and posts doomsday scenarios to get funding is retarded.

      Perhaps you should read one of their books and try to understand them. You certainly have a friend who can help you with difficult parts.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    25. Re:Nothing important. by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 0

      Actually they are not.
      The one who are vaccined survive. The ones who aren't risk to die. The problem is for the minority of children below roughly 12 month, they are to young to be vaccined and if they catch the desease they might die from it.
      Everyone who actually is vaccined does not need to bother how many others are vaccined. Except if it is the postman, the milk man and another important servant who suddenly dies from an easily preventable illness.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    26. Re:Nothing important. by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 2

      The CoR books/reports are not about overpopulation per se but about scarseness of resources, polution etc.

      So the main problematic zones are not random nations with a high population growth but a few specific nations that consume most resources of the planet, notable the USA.

      Regarding a total collapse, I doubt any developed nation can weather off a total stop of oil, coal or other imports. Most international long distance trade is done by ships. Granted they burn stuff that does not really count as oil, but if the US don't get relevant resupplies from germany the carrier fleet is down in less than 3 month, actually 6 weeks is more correct.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    27. Re:Nothing important. by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 1

      In the event of a global collapse, these people will simply carry on as before.

      If civilization collapses, there will be a reason that it collapsed. Such as a pandemic disease, crop destroying volcanic eruption, asteroid impact, nuclear winter, or runaway greenhouse effect. In any of these events, Africans will not "carry on as before". They will be the hardest hit, because they have nothing to fall back on.

    28. Re:Nothing important. by Wycliffe · · Score: 2

      Overpopulation is self-adjusting. It's not pretty, famine, war and diseases comes in to play, but it is still self-adjusting.
      We are not going to see the end of the world because of it.

      That's not entirely true. Check out the history of Easter Island and also the many simulations and experiments
      that have been done. If everyone only gets 50% of what they need then everybody dies. Yes, war, disease,
      and cannibalism can help but it still might not prevent a complete collapse. More importantly, like in easter
      island, the most likely outcome of overpopulation is that we screw up our ecosystem and make the world
      uninhabitable by us. It's possible that a few people will survive but any simblance of civilization probably wouldn't.

    29. Re:Nothing important. by cusco · · Score: 1

      It seems as though the quality of ACs has been deteriorating the last few years, while the number of them rises. It's too bad.

      --
      "Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
    30. Re:Nothing important. by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 1

      How would we know?

      In theory, a star's brightness should fluctuate as it becomes unstable. This may happen over weeks, days, or even hours. We really don't know, because there have not been any close before/after observations. But there would likely be some sign that it is about to blow.

      Ultraviolet glow from impending supernova.

    31. Re:Nothing important. by Immerman · · Score: 3

      If only it were that simple. Vaccines aren't a magic bullet, they only give your immune system a chance to practice fighting a disease without your life being on the line. The process is fairly random though - your body throws random shit at the infection until something sticks well enough to wipe it out, and then keeps a record of what worked. As a result many people find really effective solutions and become effectively immune, but others just get a boost in their resistance - hopefully enough to keep them alive until their immune systems can find a better solution, but there are no guarantees.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    32. Re:Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So Mankind "did stuff" and "postponed" it so the predicted dates were wrong, but that is ok because mankind "did stuff"?

      The mind boggles.

    33. Re:Nothing important. by Immerman · · Score: 1

      Not even technology in general, population growth drops off precipitously in the presence of three factors:
      1) Cheap, effective birth control - because not many people are ever going to give up sex.
      2) Family planning education - because the benefits of planning the size and timing of your family is a lot more obvious in retrospect, especially in cultures where (1) is a new phenomena.
      3) Affordable, quality childhood medical care - children are the retirement plan, if you can't rely on your kids surviving to adulthood, you have more kids.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    34. Re:Nothing important. by dryeo · · Score: 1

      The virus that's most likely to cause an epidemic is the flu, mostly due to how often it mutates. Vaccinations don't help much for a new strain of the Spanish Flu.
      The real danger is common bacteria. With the overuse of antibiotics and the resulting antibiotic resistance of bacteria we're likely to be back where we were a hundred years ago with simple infections being the leading cause of death.

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    35. Re:Nothing important. by dryeo · · Score: 1

      You left out educated women who can take advantage of numbers 1 and 2.

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    36. Re:Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Easter Island is, well, very small. It's large enough to support a semi-stable population, but can never be "very stable" ...the lower bound on the natural population fluctuation is below sustainable. However, for continents, this is not a challenge; they're large enough (and even archipelagos) that a dominant group will maintain control of enough resources to survive. Only if global climate change becomes so bad that there are only unconnected inhabitable pockets will this be an "end of mankind" problem.

    37. Re:Nothing important. by Eloking · · Score: 1

      If Betelgeuse was going to supernova tomorrow, there'd still be nothing to be concerned about -- just something to be excited about.

      In fact, it'll be an amazing event. Betelgeuse would become so bright that it'll outshine the full moon at night....for a few month. It'll even be clearly visible during the day.

      I got quite excited a few years ago when news on the net talked about Betelgeuse been about to explode. Sadly we're quite sure now that it won't happen for a few millennium.

      --
      Elok
    38. Re:Nothing important. by khallow · · Score: 1

      They have to survive to make it to Europe. The other replier was trying to be sarcastic, but Europe has in the past repeatedly demonstrated that killing a few million people is not a hard problem. In a total collapse scenario where "us versus them" genocide gets started, Africa will run out of people long before Europe runs out of bullets and nukes. The same goes for the US which has pretty defensible borders.

    39. Re:Nothing important. by plopez · · Score: 1

      Whoosh!

      It would take 600 years for us to find out.

      --
      putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
    40. Re:Nothing important. by jafiwam · · Score: 1

      Actually they are not. The one who are vaccined survive. The ones who aren't risk to die. The problem is for the minority of children below roughly 12 month, they are to young to be vaccined and if they catch the desease they might die from it. Everyone who actually is vaccined does not need to bother how many others are vaccined. Except if it is the postman, the milk man and another important servant who suddenly dies from an easily preventable illness.

      I am not sure I am going to be too upset about an event that keeps the snotting, drooling, noisy, stinky, bulky, and slow crotch droppings from being dragged out into inappropriate public places all the time.

      "Let's keep Junior and Juniess at home for the first several years cuz they might catch something and die" is OK in my book.

    41. Re: Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We'll exterminate them. Europe is for Aryan uebermensch, not negroid shit monkeys.

      Better yet, back out of Africa a bit, let China move in, and then the CHINESE will exterminate them.

      Eurotrash can then sit around hand-wringing like they always do and everybody moves on.

    42. Re:Nothing important. by tehcyder · · Score: 2

      Continuously compound interest equation accumulates error in predicted growth rate logarithmically.

      That's easy for you to say.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    43. Re:Nothing important. by CaptainLard · · Score: 1

      Sure there's a few Californias....

      Do you mean states that provide the highest percentage of a country's food and send more money to the federal government than they receive? Or states that run a deficit...which is about half of them, red and blue alike?

    44. Re:Nothing important. by khallow · · Score: 0

      The CoR books/reports are not about overpopulation per se but about scarseness of resources, polution etc.

      So the main problematic zones are not random nations with a high population growth but a few specific nations that consume most resources of the planet, notable the USA.

      ' This is exactly why these reports are complete bullshit. It's not about inequality of resource consumption. It's about the raw amount of people. If Africa were to continue on its current exponential rate of population growth, it would grow inside of a few centuries to the point where it's using more resources than the rest of the world.

      It doesn't matter that certain parts of the world use more resources per capita. Even if you equalize resource consumption, you still end up with die-offs from overpopulation due to this exponential growth.

      In other words, it's not the "random" countries with high per capita resource consumption, but negative population growth among natives (even the US would have negative population growth, if immigration were halted for a generation), but the many "specific" countries with high population growth rates.

    45. Re: Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We could survive idiots in government. Plenty of people have. What we won't survive is idiots in government plus sociopaths AND idiots running the megacorporations that we allow to have near monopolies over essential goods and services.

      We pretend to have competition and actual markets and such, but what we really have is inefficient allocation of resources and research because the priorities of both are in reality left to the very few, and those few are massively greedy, massively stupid, or both.

    46. Re:Nothing important. by khallow · · Score: 1

      Do you mean states that provide the highest percentage of a country's food and send more money to the federal government than they receive? Or states that run a deficit...which is about half of them, red and blue alike?

      Yes, I mean that state.

    47. Re:Nothing important. by the+gnat · · Score: 1

      Sure there's a few Californias and Greeces out there

      These two are nothing alike, unless you think the whole of the developed world can be judged solely by the condition of the central governments. Besides, California's debt-to-GDP ratio is only about 20% - Greece's is 175%.

    48. Re: Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you don't stop overloading your circuit, your breaker will trip.

      Stop using a high draw appliances and it doesn't happen.

      Truly hard to understand.

    49. Re:Nothing important. by Immerman · · Score: 1

      That's an incredibly powerful force for accelerating economic development, but I haven't heard much credible evidence that it has a dramatic effect on population growth directly, and it's not like an uneducated woman isn't going to contribute to her families wellbeing.

      It's important to choose your battles - you're going to tend to run in to a lot more opposition to your population-control programs if you're trying to upset the current power hierarchy at the same time. *Everybody* wins from family planning, and the next generation of women will be much better positioned to fight for equality if the culture has already shifted so that they're not expected to be constantly pregnant and struggling to keep their children alive.

      Education may be a win for all in the long term, but the impoverished men whose only power is over their wives aren't going to see it that way at first. (And it's mostly the deeply impoverished whose populations are growing fastest)

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    50. Re:Nothing important. by nukenerd · · Score: 1
      CrimsonAvenga wrote :-

      Africa has 1.1 billion people. With an average life expectancy of 71 years.

      Really? Then it is about time they sent some medical aid to some European countries.

    51. Re:Nothing important. by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      It's not "several" years. It's one. The immune system needs a little age to be ready for it. After the shot, take them everywhere. They aren't nearly as noisy at 6-months as they are at 1+ (so long as you feed them and such).

      And there's 1-10% (or more) of the population who has had their shots, and doesn't have immunity. Those are the people that are really the affected. There's nothing they can do. At least with babies, you can protect them, isolate them, but adults with immune problems or just didn't develop immunity often don't know they are unprotected, and if they did, would die even quicker if they choose to quit their job and stay home (and starve).

    52. Re:Nothing important. by invictusvoyd · · Score: 1

      My pangalactic device tells me that it has already gone supernova ... yesterday .. wait for 600 years to watch the fireworks .. tada ...

    53. Re:Nothing important. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Overpopulation is still a risk.

      If you have the time, read this. I'm curious what you think.

    54. Re:Nothing important. by khallow · · Score: 1

      These two are nothing alike, unless you think the whole of the developed world can be judged solely by the condition of the central governments. Besides, California's debt-to-GDP ratio is only about 20% - Greece's is 175%.

      Sure, there are some differences between the two. The big one is that California hasn't yet destroyed its big sectors, high tech and agriculture. I give the state ten years to do both of those in. Maybe they'll whack Hollywood while they're at it, but I think that's a bit more resistant to bad governance.

    55. Re:Nothing important. by Sardaukar86 · · Score: 1

      Betelgeuse would become so bright that it'll outshine the full moon at night....for a few month.

      Not according to TFA:

      Based on the distance to Betelgeuse, we can work out that the apparent magnitude of the peak of the explosion would be -10

      ...where a full moon is about -13, and:

      The brightness of Betelgeuse’s supernova is about the same as the quarter moon.

      Apparently it'll be pretty bright for a few days then fade out slowly over several weeks, not months.

      --
      ..Mullah or Pope, Preacher or Poet, who was it wrote: "Give any one species too much rope and they'll fuck it up"?
    56. Re:Nothing important. by Rich0 · · Score: 1

      In the event of a global collapse, these people will simply carry on as before.

      If civilization collapses, there will be a reason that it collapsed. Such as a pandemic disease, crop destroying volcanic eruption, asteroid impact, nuclear winter, or runaway greenhouse effect. In any of these events, Africans will not "carry on as before". They will be the hardest hit, because they have nothing to fall back on.

      Agree with this. The middle of Africa won't care if there are worldwide blackouts, as long as everybody has their plot of land to grow crops on. That kind of disaster will be very hard on the industrial world when you can't get food into your cities. On the other hand if the problem is that there are more bodies to feed than local land to feed them on, then the people of Africa will have a real problem on their hand, and will probably solve it by killing each other off until it is no longer a problem, since historically that is what tends to happen in these situations anywhere.

    57. Re:Nothing important. by Eloking · · Score: 1

      Betelgeuse would become so bright that it'll outshine the full moon at night....for a few month.

      Not according to TFA:

      Based on the distance to Betelgeuse, we can work out that the apparent magnitude of the peak of the explosion would be -10

      ...where a full moon is about -13, and:

      The brightness of Betelgeuse’s supernova is about the same as the quarter moon.

      Apparently it'll be pretty bright for a few days then fade out slowly over several weeks, not months.

      Oups, yeah you're right. I should have verified my source. I'm still quite sure about what I remember but maybe the calculation of the brightness of Betelgeuse changed over the years.

      --
      Elok
    58. Re:Nothing important. by Sardaukar86 · · Score: 1

      Oups, yeah you're right. I should have verified my source. I'm still quite sure about what I remember but maybe the calculation of the brightness of Betelgeuse changed over the years.

      In your defence I wasn't playing by the rules when I read TFA. =)

      --
      ..Mullah or Pope, Preacher or Poet, who was it wrote: "Give any one species too much rope and they'll fuck it up"?
    59. Re:Nothing important. by dryeo · · Score: 1

      My thinking is that an educated woman (or anyone actually) is more likely to understand the benefits of family planning and how to implement it as well as being more motivated to do more with her life then being a housewife.
      Of course it also depends on how enlightened the man is which often also depends on education.

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    60. Re:Nothing important. by walshy007 · · Score: 1

      as well as being more motivated to do more with her life then being a housewife.

      Education without allowing people to question things is otherwise known as indoctrination. If a woman highly values being a housewife, I see no reason to not let her do so.

      A lot of people seem to have this mentality of "if they knew what I did/ if they were more enlightened they would make the same choices as me" people are allowed to make different choices in life. There are trade-offs to every decision. What people truly value can be arbitrary.

    61. Re:Nothing important. by dryeo · · Score: 1

      It's fine if a woman decides to be a housewife, it's just nice if she has a choice.

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    62. Re:Nothing important. by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      but the many "specific" countries with high population growth rates.
      Since widely availability of contraception, and most notable TV, such countries don't exist anymore :D

      Sure, a few nations still have a noticeable grows, but imho the population growth is under control since minimum 30 years.

      So the main problem is still pollution, erosion, distribution, and behind that imperialism (no matter if religion based in Africa or foreign influence in Asia or south america), wrong approaches in globalization, corruption etc.

      The population growth in India, or any other place of the world, has nothing to do with land erosion and loss of agrarian soil or water problems in the USA.

      CoR is warning about erosion like in the USA ... your point?

      So: limiting populations, how ever you want to achieve that, solves nothing until you start stopping the practices that lead to erosion, land loss and waste of water and finally other resources (like empty oceans).

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    63. Re:Nothing important. by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Actually how the immune system works is understood since decades, on a certain level at least.

      The process is fairly random though - your body throws random shit at the infection until something sticks well enough to wipe it out
      No it does not. The first line are macrophages and leucocytes. If they "eat" infected cells, they expose "foreign" proteins etc. on their hull. As examples for the antibody factories to find fitting antibodies exactly against those proteins.

      As a result many people find really effective solutions and become effectively immune, but others just get a boost in their resistance - hopefully enough to keep them alive until their immune systems can find a better solution, but there are no guarantees.
      That is nonsense. While a small percentage (below 1%) does not get immune, all the others develop the exact same antibody, hence we have so many antibody based tests for illnesses (like for HIV or Ebola).

      The background is that most vaccinations only involve X sessions. For measles e.g. X == 2. If they would actually test if the person has developed anti bodies after 2 vaccinations they could decide if he needs one more. That ofc. again only works on those persons that indeed have no problem with their immune system.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    64. Re:Nothing important. by khallow · · Score: 1

      Since widely availability of contraception, and most notable TV, such countries don't exist anymore :D

      Let's give some examples: Nigeria has a population growth rate of 2.3% (which is a doubling time of just over 30 years). India and Indonesia still have population growth rates of 1.3% (doubling time of roughly 55 years). Pakistan has a population growth rate of 1.8% (doubling time of roughly 39 years). These rates are all due to reproduction and include a bit of emigration.

      For example, if we blissfully extrapolate Nigeria's current growth rate and population (127 million today) through the next three centuries, a typical Club of Rome exercise, we get almost three orders of magnitude more people, roughly 110-120 billion people. Even if these people somehow consume only a tenth of the resources of the present global population, that's about half again as much resources consumed just by Nigeria than by the entire world today.

      So the main problem is still pollution, erosion, distribution, and behind that imperialism (no matter if religion based in Africa or foreign influence in Asia or south america), wrong approaches in globalization, corruption etc.

      Of course not. If the population of the world were a tenth the present amount, these would not be serious problems.

      The population growth in India, or any other place of the world, has nothing to do with land erosion and loss of agrarian soil or water problems in the USA.

      Sure, they do. Food is an export product of the US and the high demand for food globally helps put more pressure on the US's agriculture resources. Less demand means less land put under the plow.

      My view is that this is typical environmental Calvinism that ignores overpopulation, the elephant in the room.

    65. Re:Nothing important. by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Let's give some examples [worldbank.org]: Nigeria has a population growth rate of 2.3% (which is a doubling time of just over 30 years). India and Indonesia still have population growth rates of 1.3% (doubling time of roughly 55 years). Pakistan has a population growth rate of 1.8% (doubling time of roughly 39 years). These rates are all due to reproduction and include a bit of emigration.
      Extremely good examples.
      100 years ago the grows was like 30% or bigger.

      Food is an export product of the US and the high demand for food globally helps put more pressure on the US's agriculture resources. Less demand means less land put under the plow.
      Even worse :D supporting my point. No one forces the USA to destroy their own farming area, just to sell "a bit of food" to foreign countries (destroying the farming economy btw with that in those countries, to be able to buy land cheap there, doing the same destruction there as well)
      Blaming population growth there is just cynic. Farm land is destroyed because the big food companies try to manipulate world, just like the oil companies.

      My view is that this is typical environmental Calvinism that ignores overpopulation, the elephant in the room. There is no problem. The planet can hold 4 times as many people without problems, perhaps even ten times. The way our economy/politics works is the problem, and that is what the CoR is pointing out.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    66. Re:Nothing important. by khallow · · Score: 1

      100 years ago the grows was like 30% or bigger.

      No, it wasn't.

      Even worse :D supporting my point. No one forces the USA to destroy their own farming area, just to sell "a bit of food" to foreign countries (destroying the farming economy btw with that in those countries, to be able to buy land cheap there, doing the same destruction there as well)

      It's just a good benefit for the US which is the point of trade. Plus that "destruction" is renewable.

      Blaming population growth there is just cynic. Farm land is destroyed because the big food companies try to manipulate world, just like the oil companies.

      I already explained this. Why are you still here?

      There is no problem. The planet can hold 4 times as many people without problems, perhaps even ten times. The way our economy/politics works is the problem, and that is what the CoR is pointing out.

      We already have better, present day economic/political systems than anything the Club of Rome can conceive of. Yet again, this line of argument is pointless because it's so far off actual problems of humanity as to be harmful, if we should ever listen to it.

    67. Re:Nothing important. by Immerman · · Score: 1

      Thoughts are nice, but unless there's actual evidence, a thought is all it is. Personally I suspect that the woman who is struggling to keep two kids fed knows damned well that a third kid is going to mean someone is going to go hungry, and it tears at her heart to realize that sooner or later that is going to become reality.

      It's not calculus, every parent knows that children are expensive. "All" you need is a social outreach program to let people know that the world has changed, and every child can be a *choice*, one that can be cheaply and easily declined, or delayed until you can afford it better. The difficult part is swaying social expectations, not explaining the premise.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    68. Re:Nothing important. by lucien86 · · Score: 1

      Yes but its still rising by 80 million ever year - that's 10 new cities the size of London, or 5 the size of New York every year. Most of them are poor and starving and want to come to the US or Europe where they think money and food are given away for free and the streets are paved with gold...

      --
      Below the speed of light Special Relativity is one of the most accurate theories in physics - above the speed of light..
    69. Re:Nothing important. by lucien86 · · Score: 1

      Oh no I sounded like a right wing bigot, didn't intend to do that. Most of the poor don't intend to come here, but the media out there is telling how much better off we all are.
      The real problem is the shear number who would have to be educated in things like family planning to make a difference - it would literally take tens of millions of educators.. Besides the biggest problems in the third world isn't just simple poverty - its also political corruption, military conflict, dictatorship, intolerant ultra orthodox religious indoctrination, outright theft, lack of general education... Endlessly growing population is a slower problem that often barely gets noticed on the ground .. but is does slowly make all the other problems worse and increases urbanization, load on food resources, and stress on remaining wilderness..

      --
      Below the speed of light Special Relativity is one of the most accurate theories in physics - above the speed of light..
  2. Don't bother by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The article doesn't say shit about feeling anything.
    It would be roughly as bright as the 1/4 moon.

    There, now you know everything of any substance in the linked article.

    1. Re:Don't bother by michelcolman · · Score: 2

      Indeed, it doesn't really say much interesting. Half the article is about the definition of absolute and relative magnitude (yawn...), then they say it will be about a quarter as bright as the moon. What about radiation? Lots of highly charged particles will be coming our way. Could give a pretty significant EMP pulse.

    2. Re:Don't bother by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It is not the EMP pulse you should be worried about, it's the Gamma pulse. According to Wikipedia even a supernova 3000 light years away could strip the upper atmosphere of ozone, exposing us to deadly radiation from our own sun (extinction level event).

    3. Re:Don't bother by ITRambo · · Score: 1

      As bright as a 1/4 moon but focused in a much tinier area, it will be very bright indeed.

  3. The answer.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    From Earth it will appear about as bright as the 1/4 moon. So enough to cast shadows at night, and be visible in daylight (like Venus) if you know where to look.

  4. I'm not worried by Tablizer · · Score: 2

    I have supernova insurance

    1. Re:I'm not worried by plopez · · Score: 1

      I once had Chevy Nova insurance.

      --
      putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
    2. Re:I'm not worried by I'm+New+Around+Here · · Score: 1

      My brother's friend could have used that. They drove that thing everywhere it wasn't made to go.

      --
      If you think I voted for Trump because of this post, you're wrong. I voted for Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. Again.
    3. Re:I'm not worried by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      You need nova insurance if your Pinto gets it in the rear.

  5. Go ahead, make my millennium by Askmum · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, BEETLEJUICE

    Nope, nothing happened.

    1. Re:Go ahead, make my millennium by Scarletdown · · Score: 2

      Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, BEETLEJUICE

      Nope, nothing happened.

      How about Hastur Hastur Hastur?

      Nope. Still nothi...

      --
      This space unintentionally left blank.
    2. Re:Go ahead, make my millennium by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Badger Badger Badger?

    3. Re:Go ahead, make my millennium by meglon · · Score: 2

      Badger? Badger?? We don't need no stinking badgers!!

      --
      Fascism: An authoritarian and nationalistic right-wing system of government and social organization. See also: NAZI's
    4. Re:Go ahead, make my millennium by viperidaenz · · Score: 1

      Mushroom Mushroom

    5. Re:Go ahead, make my millennium by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Have you ever thought about using HOSTS files?

      APK! APK! APK!

    6. Re:Go ahead, make my millennium by EvilAlphonso · · Score: 1

      Snake! It's a snaaaake!

    7. Re:Go ahead, make my millennium by mrbester · · Score: 1

      Candyman Candyman Candyman...

      --
      "Wait. Something's happening. It's opening up! My God, it's full of apricots!"
    8. Re:Go ahead, make my millennium by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Now you've gone too far...

    9. Re:Go ahead, make my millennium by operagost · · Score: 1

      We're good. You have to say, "Candyman" FOUR times.

      Whoops...

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    10. Re:Go ahead, make my millennium by zaxus · · Score: 1

      Hastur is nothing compared to Candlejack! All you have to do is say his nam....

      --
      /. zen: Imagine a Beowulf cluster of Beowulf clusters...
    11. Re:Go ahead, make my millennium by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Doesn't he end up having to wait in line?

  6. Isn't that by rossdee · · Score: 4, Funny

    where Ford Prefect and Zaphod Beeblebrox come from?

    1. Re:Isn't that by Scarletdown · · Score: 5, Funny

      It was a small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Betelgeuse. So it could have been a neighboring system. Because when talking on astronomical scales, the vicinity of a star can cover a tremendous amount of space. After all, space is big, extremely big. You wouldn't believe just how big it is...

      --
      This space unintentionally left blank.
    2. Re:Isn't that by aliquis · · Score: 2

      It was a small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Betelgeuse. So it could have been a neighboring system. Because when talking on astronomical scales, the vicinity of a star can cover a tremendous amount of space. After all, space is big, extremely big. You wouldn't believe just how big it is...

      Is that when the universe is viewed in the perspective of say petunias or when it's viewed by mice?

    3. Re:Isn't that by geminidomino · · Score: 1

      Mice are all fuckers.

    4. Re: Isn't that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But any whelks in the vicinity won't stand a chance!

    5. Re:Isn't that by codeButcher · · Score: 1

      After all, space is big, extremely big. You wouldn't believe just how big it is...

      That's why it's called space - because there is such a lot of it.

      (The rest of the movie where that quote came from was quite forgettable. I don't even recall it's name.)

      --
      Free, as in your money being freed from the confines of your account.
    6. Re:Isn't that by gtall · · Score: 1

      Nope, from the Total Perspective Vortex.

    7. Re:Isn't that by I'm+New+Around+Here · · Score: 1

      Google says it's based from a Carl Sagan quote. Various movies/shows probably reference it.

      --
      If you think I voted for Trump because of this post, you're wrong. I voted for Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. Again.
    8. Re:Isn't that by jellomizer · · Score: 1

      Well it would be came from. Get your tenses right.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    9. Re:Isn't that by aliquis · · Score: 1

      ^ This isn't funny. It's informative.

      Or well, without being a question it would be.

      (Was never posted back when I wrote it due to cool-down period. Old tab.)

  7. a little brighter by itzly · · Score: 5, Insightful

    A long winded article where the crucial information "a little brighter" is hidden between 2 pages of fluff.

    1. Re:a little brighter by BlackPignouf · · Score: 5, Informative

      A bit more than "a little brighter".
      It would go from 0.5 (now) to -10 apparent magnitude. That's about 15000 times brighter.
      It would be much brighter than Venus/Jupiter/Sirius, and be visible during daytime.
      It would be about as bright as a quarter moon.

    2. Re:a little brighter by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      If that's what you concluded from the article then you may want to re-read it with more care.

    3. Re:a little brighter by itzly · · Score: 2

      It would be about as bright as a quarter moon.

      Yes, so nothing special. 90% of the people wouldn't even notice, unless it was pointed out to them.

    4. Re:a little brighter by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It will have roughly the same magnitude as the quarter moon, meaning the total flux. Unlike the moon it will appear as an extremely bright pin point of light

      So saying as bright as the quarter moon greatly understates the apparent brightness.

    5. Re:a little brighter by itzly · · Score: 4, Insightful

      In other words, a poorly written article. Plenty of pictures, but not a single one showing a daytime sky with some clouds, a quarter moon, and an accurate representation of what the nova would look like in comparison.

    6. Re:a little brighter by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      In other words, a poorly written article. Plenty of pictures...

      In other words, a medium.com article.

    7. Re:a little brighter by lastman71 · · Score: 1

      Yes, nothing special. Every night I see in the sky a star bright as a quarter moon. Just because, they not forecast the end of the civilization, it does'nt mean that is nothing special.

    8. Re:a little brighter by gsslay · · Score: 1

      And yet it takes so long to say what you summarise in four lines.

      Yes, the all the math is good to see, it's not just making this all up. But this article starts out so promising and ends abruptly just when it gets around to the interesting bit.

    9. Re:a little brighter by Zorpheus · · Score: 1

      It would be about as bright as a quarter moon.

      I wonder what that means. Is the light density the same as of a quarter moon, or is the total amount of light the same? If it is the first, is this really that different for a quarter moon and a full moon?

    10. Re:a little brighter by thegarbz · · Score: 0

      In other words, a poorly written article.

      Only because you skim read it, poorly. It's written right there in the article:

      It was said that the supernova in 1006 was bright enough to cast a shadow at night. Betelgeuse, being significantly brighter, would likely also cast shadows

      Anything else you would care to be wrong about today? It's more than a little brighter, and given it would be a star visible during the day time people would notice, especially if it cast their shadows at night.

      But hey since you're one to complain, why not write a better article for everyone to enjoy?

    11. Re:a little brighter by Gamasta · · Score: 1

      Thank you for the "TL;RD" comment. The article is really full of fluff, which is interesting for the layman. The facts you pointed out would have sufficed for me. Lesson learned again: DRTFA.

      Out of my head the full moon has apparent magnitude of -13, Venus is about -4.3 at its brightest. So the full moon would makes a better comparison, it would easily be visible during daytime. Nobody would have to be told it's there to notice it.

      --
      reason defies logic
    12. Re:a little brighter by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      They call it "medium" because it's neither rare nor well done.

    13. Re:a little brighter by BlackPignouf · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure about the 2 first questions.
      http://www.sr.bham.ac.uk/~tjp/... seems to suggest that apparent magnitude is based on flux (=total amount of light), and not on intensity (=light density).
      It means that the light density of Betelgeuse supernova would be much higher than the light density of the quarter moon. The total amount would be approximately the same. If I'm not mistaken, since the sun (32.7 arcminutes) is much bigger than Betelgeuse (0.056 arcseconds), Betelgeuse supernova would also have a much higer intensity than the Sun.

      For the last one :
      https://what-if.xkcd.com/129/
      http://home.earthlink.net/~kit...
      During a quarter moon, you only get sunlight reflected at weird angles off the moon.

    14. Re:a little brighter by Zorpheus · · Score: 1

      I think you are right, it must be the flux, not the light intensity. I think the light density of the quarter moon is not that much compared to e.g. Sirius, but of course the flux is considerably larger.
      But it is hard to imagine a star with the whole flux of the quarter moon, that must be an extremely bright tiny spot, maybe like a laser.

    15. Re:a little brighter by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It would be about as bright as a quarter moon.

      Yes, so nothing special. 90% of the people wouldn't even notice, unless it was pointed out to them.

      Except that a quarter moon can cast a shadow, so Betelgeuse would also. Even Venus can cast a shadow, and it's quite a sharp shadow. The maximum angular extent of Venus is just over 1 arc-minute, and its maximum magnitude of -5 at slightly less than 1 arc-minute. With a magnitude of -10, Betelgeuse would cast a much stronger shadow than Venus, and it would be even sharper, because even if it got bigger, Betelgeuse's current angular size is about 0.05 arc-seconds.

      People tend to notice shadows. Not so much that due to Venus, but one that is 100 times as bright would be noticeable. Unless they're really drunk or something.

    16. Re:a little brighter by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Anything else you would care to be wrong about today?

      Care to write a post not drenched in sarcasm?

  8. Feeling a tad upset by Whiteox · · Score: 1

    I don't have anything to say... I tried to think of something but nothing at all came to mind. The whole experience was disappointing, from the moment I closed FF and updated to v36, re-logged into /. and clicked on the link to find out what the cockroaches would 'feel' in 100,600 years from now. Probably nothing as sound can't travel in space. No big bang here... move along pls.

    --
    Don't be apathetic. Procrastinate!
  9. The associated EMP pulse... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...will probably activate all the garage door openers of the galaxy. This could be a funny thing to observe.

    1. Re: The associated EMP pulse... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Let's hope it won't screw up too many ATM machines.

    2. Re:The associated EMP pulse... by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      It may also cause ATM machines to fail and vehicles to stop because their EMS systems and ECU units hang up.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    3. Re:The associated EMP pulse... by TheRealHocusLocus · · Score: 4, Funny

      The associated EMP pulse

      * will make all the WiFi Barbies hiccup
      * Pebble Smartwatch with AC synchronous motor all start running backwards
      * hasten return plague infested gerbils
      * make Slashdot say "read rest of comment..." when is no rest of comment to read or is whitespace (oops already happened)
      * make AT&T undercharge customers
      * will change spelling of some words even in old dictionaries
      * will change hidden embedded satanic message into incomprehensible phenomic gobblegook
      * will turn chemtrail into contrail
      * will contaminate Portland Reservoir with water they will drain and refill at taxpayer expense
      * will do nothing out in the desert no surprise there
      * will cause brain cloud
      * will change Lady Gaga name to Ydal Agag and Huckleberry Finn to Fuckeberry Hinn no one will notice
      * will solve discrete logarithm and knapsack problem by making people realize that despite their insolubility everyone is all ok the kids are alright so there really is no problem
      * will make apocalypse crazed people reset back to factory defaults and they will walk around with default wallpaper for faces
      * will reveal that we have two suns but only to drunk people
      * will short out Hillary Russia reset button because it used cheap copper click disc design and was not properly shielded and we do not need woman president we need more female engineers
      * will not be televised

      --
      <blink>down the rabbit hole</blink>
    4. Re:The associated EMP pulse... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oooh, you sure? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Xg6ou_TAic

    5. Re:The associated EMP pulse... by SecurityGuy · · Score: 1

      ATM machines have built in redundancy. At least when you call them ATM machines. (Automated Teller Machine machines?)

  10. Gamma burst by abies · · Score: 1

    I was under impression that gamma bursts are a lot more interesting things when supernova expodes. What are the chances of it hitting Earth (they are focused, not omnidirectional ?) and how bad it would be for supernova so close to us?

    1. Re:Gamma burst by SigmundFloyd · · Score: 1

      Good questions that aren't answered in that disappointing article.

      --
      Knowledge is power; knowledge shared is power lost.
    2. Re:Gamma burst by Pallas+Athena · · Score: 1

      If that gamma burst hits earth, it's not so interesting anym...

    3. Re:Gamma burst by Gavagai80 · · Score: 1

      Even if the gamma ray burst were aimed straight at us, the exploding star would have to be within 50 light years to hurt our ozone layer (source: google).

      --
      This space intentionally left blank
    4. Re:Gamma burst by abies · · Score: 2

      Seems to depend on type of nova:
      http://news.nationalgeographic...
      Here, they claim 6500 light years - but it might be for hypernova rather than supernova.

    5. Re: Gamma burst by Redmancometh · · Score: 1

      The atmosphere would boil and we'd all die. Basically.

    6. Re: Gamma burst by abies · · Score: 1

      This is not that obvious.
      If hypernova expode 5 LY away from us and points gamma ray burst at us, we boil away.
      If 'normal' nova expodes 10000LY away from us, then we we hardly notice that.

      Between nova, supernova and hypernova and 5, 600 and 10000LY there is a lot of difference. I was hoping for some more exact data about Betelgeuse in particular...

    7. Re:Gamma burst by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      I doubt that the ozone layer has any influence on gamma ray bursts.
      I guess a huge deal of life on the side of the earth aiming to that burst would die. And the other side of the planet would 'colonize' the dead part later again.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    8. Re:Gamma burst by Jason+Levine · · Score: 1

      I'd suggest reading Phil Plait's Death From The Skies. He goes into the details about the Earth being destroyed by supernovae, gamma ray bursts, etc.

      --
      My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
    9. Re:Gamma burst by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 1

      No, the atmosphere would shield you from the gamma rays. However, a side effect of that would be the generation of massive amounts of ozone-destroying chemicals in the upper atmosphere. The subsequent lack of ozone and massive UV exposure would be the real risk, especially because almost all of our food grows in sunlight.

    10. Re:Gamma burst by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That particular exploding star.

      When Eta Carinae goes, it'll be a hypernova, and even at 7500 ly we're well within range (but fortunately, not at the right angle) to get toasted by its gamma ray burst. At least, not at the right angle now. The star may well be precessing, since it's a binary.

      Wikipedia says this about the effect of a direct hit by such a GRB: "Calculations show that the deposited energy of such a GRB striking the Earth's atmosphere would be equivalent to one kiloton of TNT per square kilometer over the entire hemisphere facing the star, with ionizing radiation depositing ten times the lethal whole body dose to the surface."

      (FWIW, the events of the short story "Renee (and the Space Raiders)" (crummy title) take place on the eve of sending an expedition toward Eta Carinae (FTL, but still a multi-year trip) to set up an early warning system.)

    11. Re: Gamma burst by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If a hypernova explodes 5 LY away from us, it doesn't matter which way the GRB is pointing, we all die anyway.

      A hypernova is much, much, bigger than a "mere" supernova, and a supernova will temporarily outshine the entire galaxy.

      A 'normal' nova is a flare up unrelated to the physics of super/hyper novae, and relatively harmless. You don't want your primary going nova, but beyond that it's just a pretty light show. It's like the difference between a little flashpowder and a small nuke.

    12. Re:Gamma burst by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      No, the atmosphere would weaken the gamma ray, not filter it completely.
      Literature is full with examples where physicists assume that a near by super nova will, and likely already has several times, wipe out life on earth.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    13. Re:Gamma burst by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 1

      If you were to actually read some of the "literature", you would find out that your supposition is wrong. For example:

      A GRB within a few parsecs that is directed at the Earth will impact one
      hemisphere of the planet with a short, but intense blast of high energy
      photons. Gamma rays and X rays are highly attenuated by the Earth’s atmosphere.
      Therefore, the ground level effects are primarily indirect. A small fraction
      of the incident energy reaches the ground as dangerous ultraviolet (UV)
      radiation (Smith et al. 2004), but this is limited in time to the duration of
      the event, which is at most 10’s of seconds for a long burst, and is less than
      a seconds for a short burst. While it is possible that this flash would affect
      some organisms, it seems unlikely that a biological catastrophe would result
      from this effect alone. Of course, for planets with thinner atmospheres the
      energy deposited at the ground would be greater and more serious effects may be
      expected (Smith et al. 2004; Ga lante & Horvath 2007). We are concerned here
      with effects on life on Earth and so will concentrate on the longer term
      impacts.

      There are three potentially harmful long term effects of a GRB that follow from
      changes in atmospheric chemistry (Reid & McAfee 1978). High energy photons
      cause dissociation, GRBs and Life on Earth ionization and ionizing
      dissociations of N and O in the atmosphere. Subsequent reactions lead to the
      formation of nitrogen oxides, most importantly NO and NO These compounds
      catalytically deplete ozone (O3) in the stratosphere, leading to increases in
      surface level solar UV over long time periods (years). Secondly, NO2 itself is
      a brown gas that absorbs strongly in the visible. This may potentially have a
      climatic effect by reducing solar insolation a t the ground, thereby leading to
      cooling. Third, the atmosphere returns to normal via the removal of nitrogen
      oxides by way of precipitation of nitric acid (HNO3).

      What's more, it's not possible to "wipe out life on earth" in this manner given that some organisms have been found living in rocks a couple of miles down inside the earth. Instead, a mass extinction is the worst case outcome.

    14. Re:Gamma burst by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Well, I learned in school the gamma radiation will reach the ground. But perhaps that 'knowledge' is outdated.

      Anyway, thanx for the link. Will try to figure if its true, does not really sound like it is.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  11. MBA response by paiute · · Score: 4, Funny

    In Q2 we are all going to die, so we should shift as many receivables into Q1 as possible to make our metrics.

    --
    If Slashdot were chemistry it would look like this:Cadaverine
    1. Re:MBA response by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      +5 Insightful.

    2. Re:MBA response by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't forget to shift the liabilities to Q2

    3. Re:MBA response by thegarbz · · Score: 2

      In Q2 we are all going to die, so we should shift as many receivables into Q1 as possible to make our metrics.

      Wait you've been waiting for a reason to do that? Did you fail MBA school?

  12. Would there be a detectable EM pulse? by Beryllium+Sphere(tm) · · Score: 1

    Poul Anderson pointed out in a 1967 story that a supernova could have devastating electromagnetic pulse effects.

    Since then, we've found that supernova explosions are asymmetrical. There is plasma moving at very high speeds near a new neutron star's magnetic field and not in a neat way where the effects cancel out.

    How far away would you have to be in order not to have all your electronics fried?

    1. Re:Would there be a detectable EM pulse? by theshowmecanuck · · Score: 1

      What about x-rays and gamma rays?

      --
      -- I ignore anonymous replies to my comments and postings.
    2. Re:Would there be a detectable EM pulse? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Well if you work out the flux density across the "surface" of the star and assume that all emitted rays/particles don't change directions you could work out how far away you need to be for the minimum distance between neighbouring electrons to be greater than the diameter of our highest in-use orbit.

  13. 600 light years from us by mwissel · · Score: 1

    I assume Betelgeuse is on a slightly different orbital trajectory around the galactic center. So, if Betelgeuse is going to explode in about 100,000 years, won't its distance to Sol have changed by then?

    1. Re:600 light years from us by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 4, Informative

      So, if Betelgeuse is going to explode in about 100,000 years, won't its distance to Sol have changed by then?

      Yes.

      But not by much. It's nearly 200 parsecs away now, and it's moving at about 30 parsecs per million years. So it'll be less than 2% farther away when it booms. Much less, since its relative motion is such that most of those three parsecs will be lateral motion instead of motion away from us.

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    2. Re:600 light years from us by sFurbo · · Score: 4, Informative

      Its galactic orbit is pretty similar to the Sun's, so its motion relative to the sun is not that large. Still, even if we assumed that only the sun moved, given the galactic speed of the sun, the change in distance would still only be 6 light years, or 1% of its current distance.

    3. Re:600 light years from us by I'm+New+Around+Here · · Score: 1

      Sooooo, How many Kessel Run's is that?

      --
      If you think I voted for Trump because of this post, you're wrong. I voted for Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. Again.
    4. Re:600 light years from us by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I assume Betelgeuse is on a slightly different orbital trajectory around the galactic center. So, if Betelgeuse is going to explode in about 100,000 years, won't its distance to Sol have changed by then?

      According to circumstellar CO observations, Betelgeuse is nearly stationary with respect to the local standard of rest. No matter if it blows tomorrow or 100k years from now, it will still be ~200 parsecs away.

  14. Re:fuck medium.com by Paradise+Pete · · Score: 1

    You are confusing the medium with the message. That's how you end up with crappy greeting cards.

  15. The Media is not Hoopy. by Xac · · Score: 1

    What would happen? We all watch the media struggle to pronounce Betelgeuse. "Scientists are reporting that Behtehlgoose has supernova'd. we go live now to the director of the astrology to see how this will effect our love lives."

    1. Re:The Media is not Hoopy. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What would happen? We all watch the media struggle to pronounce Betelgeuse.

      "Scientists are reporting that Behtehlgoose has supernova'd. we go live now to the director of the astrology to see how this will effect our love lives."

      I think they will settle for Beetle-goose. No need to make it complicated.

    2. Re:The Media is not Hoopy. by ibwolf · · Score: 4, Funny

      I, for one, will be pronouncing it "Throat Warbler Mangrove"

  16. Re:fuck medium.com by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The medium is blocking the message, and it's getting tiresome. Though then again, maybe it's actually protecting us since it all looks suspiciously like clickbait fluff filled with copy/pasted half-read papers from elsewhere. To the point that reading the source papers is about as much work and more understandable. No wonder this guy usually "forgets" to also link to the sources he's used to stuff his hipsteriffic blog with.

  17. jag that only posts for medium.com by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Medium.com, shitty articles posted by people who should kind of know better.

    User StartsWithABang is just a shill for medium.com, look at his history. he's not a real community user.

    The answer: It gets it gets brighter.
    No need for a question headline. That is bullshit.

    1. Re: jag that only posts for medium.com by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Can't we just ban StartsWithABang? It is really true that he only posts ads for medium.com and all the stuff they post there is clickbait shit. Do we really want to have some jerk making money with this crap?

  18. Scam? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    > They've been saying this ever since [...] just updating the date to keep the scam running.

    I can't imagine what your agenda is, but it must be downright evil.

  19. Answer by ledow · · Score: 1

    It gets as bright as a quarter full moon on a pinpoint in the sky.

    Where the feel of "what we would see (and feel)" comes into it, I have no idea.

    Long article, for simple answer, that isn't even that interesting.

    Personally, the most interesting bit was the bit about a previous supernova in the 1000's that looks like a cloud of dust now.

  20. Lame article by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    A lot of fluff with only one useful information : it would be as bright as a quarter moon.
    No mention of any other effects (or lack of thereof) like radiations, possibility of observing gravitational waves, what could be a dangerous distance etc. etc.

  21. what's the point? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If it blows before I'm dead, sure I can see it as maybe being a problem. However, by all estimates, it'll blow 5000 generations after I'm dead.

    I will caveat this with the following:

    Astrophysicists claim the Earth is 4.5 billion years old because the ratio of uranium isotopes to lead isotopes says so. However, this ratio only applies to when the uranium was formed from the previous supernova from which our solar system condensed.

    This means the age of the Earth is much less than what they are calculating from the age of the uranium/lead isotopic ratio, perhaps even a billion years less, depending on how long it took the Earth to form from the primordial solar disc.

    Don't worry, be happy. Climate change is real, but it's not caused by humans. The Earth was hot and without glaciers until asteroids knocked it out of a circular orbit 65MYA and killed the dinosaurs and most of the larger creatures.

    Al Gore can suck it, and pay back the money too.

  22. I DONT KNOW by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Because I dont know what that word means, dont wanna look it up, dont wanna read the summary, not gonna google it. Im just gonna move on with life, Dicedot. captcha - thankful

  23. Real distance in 100,000 years by dazoline · · Score: 1

    Ok so its apparent magnitude is -16 when it explodes, that's assuming it stays still which its not. The article is a little shallow on how the relative movement of Betelgeuse and the sun will modify this. It could be its so far off by the time it does explode it could be vastly less magnitude.

  24. Surely you'll feel a great disturbance .. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In the Force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. Then you'll know that something terrible has happened.

  25. What happens when Betelgeuse Explodes? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Orion needs rotator cuff surgery and scorpius has a wave of schadenfreude? Until Antares goes nova, then tears for it's own broken heart.

  26. Re:fuck medium.com by retroworks · · Score: 1
    But it's so much easier when /. links to an article with no substance, as I can rely on my impulse, opinion, and a priori assumptions, generating faster posts. And no one ever says "RTFA".

    I look at the sky every night, knowing the light is hundreds of years old. Half of the stars might have gone supernova already. Maybe we can't blame StartswithaBang for just blogging for slashdot effect.

    --
    Gently reply
  27. Ray Kurzweil's Blog by anorlunda · · Score: 1

    Asy Ray to write it up in his blog. Ray will be the only one of us still alive in 100,000 years.

  28. First World Problems by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    really

  29. Please by sproketboy · · Score: 1

    Please have exploded 600 years ago!

  30. And feel? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The link to the article text indicates we will be enlightened as to what we will see and feel should Betelgeuse explode. Nowhere in the the article was "Feel" mentioned. I guess we should expect to feel similar to seeing our shadow at night from a quarter moon, or seeing Venus during the daytime.

  31. A Little Brighter? by rmdingler · · Score: 2
    Sigh... Once again, we get this earth-centric slant on Slashdot.

    For those folks who may see it 599.99 years before us, a little brighter may not fully capture the magnitude of it. Insensitive clods.

    --
    Happiness in intelligent people is the rarest thing I know.

    Ernest Hemingway

    1. Re:A Little Brighter? by I'm+New+Around+Here · · Score: 1

      You complain about earth-centricness, and then base a time measurement on how long it takes the earth to travel around the sun.

      Think about what you have done Kent.

      --
      If you think I voted for Trump because of this post, you're wrong. I voted for Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. Again.
    2. Re:A Little Brighter? by rmdingler · · Score: 1

      You sir, are quite a little bit brighter, indeed.

      --
      Happiness in intelligent people is the rarest thing I know.

      Ernest Hemingway

  32. Not much. maybe by multi+io · · Score: 1

    We might see not much at all because Betelgeuse happens to be located almost exactly in the ecliptic plane (10 degrees or so below it), so at certain times of the year you can't see it because it's just 10 degrees away from the sun. It would really suck if the supernova occurred during those months. I think even Hubble can't observe that close to the sun, so you'd need a telescope in deep space, which we don't really have atm.

  33. Re:fuck medium.com by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 5, Funny

    But it's so much easier when /. links to an article with no substance

    The article isn't entirely without substance. For instance, it helpfully points out, twice, that the sun is the brightest object in the sky.

  34. Re:fuck medium.com by rot26 · · Score: 1

    In the night sky. In the night sky. In the night sky. In the night sky. Is that some sort of drinking game?

    --



    To ensure perfect aim, shoot first and call whatever you hit the target
  35. Relevant Info.... by PortHaven · · Score: 2

    Supernova will be ~1/4 the brightness of the Luna.

    There, you can now skip to your loo and read your Kindle.

  36. Bang vs Bennett by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    He makes Bennett look good. If there's a Bennett article right now, I'm gonna go read it. What am I saying, of course there is a Bennett article. Maybe we could have a slashdot poll where we range Medium dude against Bennett against...government press releases. Ok, I'll submit that too. Man, my morning has sure filled up.

  37. Very Unlikely by Roger+W+Moore · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I look at the sky every night, knowing the light is hundreds of years old. Half of the stars might have gone supernova already.

    The life cycle of even the largest stars is still in the 10-100 million year range. The chance that one of them has exploded in the last few hundred years is tiny. Galaxy-wide we expect one supernova roughly every century so, unless you get really lucky, practically every star you can see with the naked eye has an extremely good chance of still being there...even Betelgeuse which they estimate has a 100k year lifespan remaining and is only 600 light years away. Of course if you had RTFA you would have known most of this...hope you appreciate the irony!

    1. Re:Very Unlikely by retroworks · · Score: 1

      Ah, sorry, I saw this part, which I didn't take to be very definitive.

      "We do expect a few supernova in our galaxy every few hundred years, so there are a number of stars that are nearing the ends of their lifetimes within our galaxy. It’s hard to predict exactly when a star will transition from “close to the end of its life” to “exploding in the next week”, so while we expect that none of these will be exploding in the next little while, it’s difficult to predict which one of the stars will be the first to go."

      Anyway I didn't mean to pile on, it's not that bad an article or anything. It's just kind of general and without citations, and even the RTFA point isn't presented with much confidence. One might have presumed that the supernova makes stars brighter, so that while I might not see the majority of stars above me, the ones which have gone Supernova I'm more likely to see with the naked eye... thus half the stars I can see (a very small subset of total stars) might be Supernova.

      --
      Gently reply
    2. Re:Very Unlikely by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Supernovas only last for a very short period of time, measured in days. None of the stars that you can see in the night sky are currently undergoing a supernova (this would be headline news). Occasionally astronomers detect a supernova in another galaxy, but these aren't bright enough to see with the naked eye.

    3. Re:Very Unlikely by Roger+W+Moore · · Score: 1

      Anyway I didn't mean to pile on, it's not that bad an article or anything. It's just kind of general and without citations

      I completely agree - these sort of articles are presenting science which we have known for a long time already, so it is hardly "news", and they don't present it well. I usually put it down to the submitter not knowing the science and so it is new to them and the editors not knowing any better either. However I could not resist pointing out the irony of your post...sorry! ;-)

  38. Since the link to the article said "feel"... by mark-t · · Score: 1

    ... I made the assumption that it would address how such an explosion happening so close to our own solar system would likely affect this planet.

    But.... nothing. Lots there about what to see, but not a speck of text anywhere in the article that addresses what would actually happen for us.

    I already have a pretty rough idea of my own on what will happen on Earth anyways... and I suppose I went looking to the article in the hope of seeing either confirmation or denial, but I found neither. If I'm right, however, then talking about what there will be to see when it happens is really kind of pointless.

  39. Fuck that guy and his exclamation points. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I mean, what is he, a twelve-year-old?

  40. How do you know? by wcrowe · · Score: 1

    How do we know it hasn't happened already? It could have exploded five hundred years ago, and we wouldn't know.

    --
    Proverbs 21:19
  41. Re:fuck medium.com by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What they didn't mention, is that it is the brightest object in the _day_ sky. I lost my time searching for it yesterday night.

  42. Who is the sucker... by RogueWarrior65 · · Score: 1

    who bought...*cough* I mean "named" a star after someone at the "international star registry." What a sh*tty gift.

  43. But where's the kaboom? by billstewart · · Score: 1

    With an article title like this, there's supposed to be an Earth-shattering kaboom! Fortunately, if the article's correct, it seems like we just get a really bright star for a while, but no fatal gamma-ray bursts or anything like that.

    --

    Bill Stewart
    New Fast-Compression-only CPR http://preview.tinyurl.com/dy575ks
  44. Re:fuck medium.com by tehcyder · · Score: 2

    But it's so much easier when /. links to an article with no substance

    The article isn't entirely without substance. For instance, it helpfully points out, twice, that the sun is the brightest object in the sky.

    To be fair, that's probably specifically tailored for the slashdot audience:

    "You know, that hot yellowy-white thing that warms your skin when you're walking outside?"

    "Huh?"

    --
    To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  45. New lyrics for the Badger song by tepples · · Score: 1

    Yeah, I think that was the joke.

  46. Questions by TFlan91 · · Score: 1

    1 ) This could've already happened.

    2 ) How long would this be visible for?

  47. Article summary by istartedi · · Score: 1

    Worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, as bright as a quarter moon for a while, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry, worry.

    There would be considerably more worrying were it not for Slashdot filters.

    --
    For all intensive purposes, "whom" is no longer a word. That begs the question, "who cares"?
  48. Re:fuck medium.com by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You know, just once I'd like to click on an article from a /. summary and see only the following:

    "For a lively discussion on this topic, go to www.slashdot.org"

  49. Re:fuck medium.com by chilenexus · · Score: 3, Funny

    > that hot yellowy-white thing that warms your skin when you're walking outside?

    Please don't talk about my girlfriend that way.

  50. who knows by Nukenbar · · Score: 1

    Maybe it already has exploded.

  51. Everything? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I plan to be around forever. So far, so good.

  52. IK Pegasi is a greater threat by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    IK Pegasi is a binary with a white dwarf component near the Chandrasekhar limit. ~1.4 M(Sol). A Type 1A supernova is far more dangerous than a type II core collapse event. All that degenerate matter undergoes fusion all at once having already been compressed for a "faster burn" than rebound from "maximum scrunch".

    Here comes the GRB [cue appropriate 1960's Hanna-Barbera sound effect]! Yep, everyone gets hurt, including those in gated communities, atheists, those who think that their plaques on the wall entitle them to run the lives of "lesser people", and people having middle names beginning with the letter "R".

  53. Re:fuck medium.com by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I started reading the article thinking it would be cover the question from this angle: The star blew up 599 years, 364 days ago, meaning tomorrow we'd see the result in the sky (it gets bright - to be expected) and what about other effects? Gamma ray burst? nuked power grid? nuked satellites ? nuked everything ?

  54. When the Nine Billion Names of God are Printed by tmjva · · Score: 1

    "The Nine Billion Names of God" is a 1953 science fiction short story by Arthur C. Clarke.

    Now that the Tibetan Monks have laser printers, it is only a matter of time.

    Come to think of it, it would also take a great deal of coordination for all the star lights to wink out on earth at nearly the same time.

    --
    Tracy Johnson
    Old fashioned text games hosted below:
    http://empire.openmpe.com/
    BT
  55. Dept: Department of Redundancy Department by eric_harris_76 · · Score: 1

    I was near the Rio Grande River when the ATM machine refused my PIN number.

    This happened once before, within sight of Mount Fujiyama.

    --
    There's no time like the present. Well, the past used to be.