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El Nino Has Finally Arrived, Far Weaker Than Predicted
An anonymous reader writes "The periodic warm weather pattern called El Niño has finally arrived in the mid-equatorial Pacific Ocean, more than a year late and far weaker than predicted by scientists. "The announcement comes a year after forecasters first predicted that a major El Niño could be in the works. At the time, NOAA predicted a 50% chance that an El Niño could develop in the latter half of 2014. The agency also said the wind patterns that were driving water east across the Pacific were similar to those that occurred in the months leading up to the epic El Niño of 1997, which caught scientists by surprise and contributed to flooding, droughts and fires across multiple continents.
In the end, last year's forecasts came up short, in part because the winds that were driving the system petered out. Researchers, who have been working to improve their forecasting models since 1997, are trying to figure out precisely what happened last year and why their models failed to capture it."
In the end, last year's forecasts came up short, in part because the winds that were driving the system petered out. Researchers, who have been working to improve their forecasting models since 1997, are trying to figure out precisely what happened last year and why their models failed to capture it."
Weather != climate.
If you flip a coin and get heads twice in a row, do you claim statistics is bunk?
"NOAA predicted a 50% chance that an El Niño could develop in the latter half of 2014"
With odds like that, how could they be wrong?
Is this sig nificant?
Nice try, but 15 years of weather statistics is climate. One winter is not. The science has been fairly consistent, only the specifics seem up for grabs.
You might also want to note that El Nino isn't itself part of climate change.
And I wouldn't crow too much about the name change. The term 'global warning' has mostly fallen out of favor due to idiots thinking a slightly chilly morning in the middle of winter meant it couldn't be real.
The best scientists on earth can't tell you how a particular molecule in a balloon will move over the next second, but any kindergartner can tell you what will happen if you keep pumping more and more air into it.
because in the grand scheme of things man has little or nothing to do with squat. Long after we are gone, the sun will change phases, engulf this planet for real global warming and then the universe will die a heat death
Using that perspective, why not rob a bank today ?
The fact that their models don't match reality does.
When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
In fact it goes opposite to what global warming / climate change is expected to do. Global warming should result in more extreme weather, including more powerful storms.
Not trying to disprove global warming here. Isolated events taken out of context are not proof.
Not trying to disprove global warming here. Isolated events taken out of context are not proof.
The problem is that every single event that refutes global warming is an "isolated event taken out of context," whereas every single event that points to global warming is "part of an undeniable pattern."
"City hall" in German is "Rathaus" Kinda explains a few things......