El Nino Has Finally Arrived, Far Weaker Than Predicted

An anonymous reader writes "The periodic warm weather pattern called El Niño has finally arrived in the mid-equatorial Pacific Ocean, more than a year late and far weaker than predicted by scientists. "The announcement comes a year after forecasters first predicted that a major El Niño could be in the works. At the time, NOAA predicted a 50% chance that an El Niño could develop in the latter half of 2014. The agency also said the wind patterns that were driving water east across the Pacific were similar to those that occurred in the months leading up to the epic El Niño of 1997, which caught scientists by surprise and contributed to flooding, droughts and fires across multiple continents.

In the end, last year's forecasts came up short, in part because the winds that were driving the system petered out. Researchers, who have been working to improve their forecasting models since 1997, are trying to figure out precisely what happened last year and why their models failed to capture it."

Comments

Let's do the Chicken Little Climate Change dance.

[MouseTheLuckyDog]

Awk Awk

It's the fault of global warming.

Awk Awk.

Re:Let's do the Chicken Little Climate Change danc

[sjames]

It looks like you're the only one saying that.

Awesome Models

[sgrover]

So these awesome weather models that have been driving so much controversy over global warming and everything else are not quite right? Hmm, soo let me get this straight. They can't predict the weather next week very accurately, but we are supposed to "trust" the experts when they tell us what is going to happen in the next few years or longer? And we are seeing constant reminders like this that their models are broken and prone to human error. Forgive me if I take ALL weather predictions with a degree of doubt, like I have for almost all my life.

Re:But, our climate models are perfectly accurate

[nierd]

I wonder where the idea that weather = climate comes from? Could it have been that it was used to promote global warming stories? http://www.independent.co.uk/e... Don't cry when the same people who were fed crap stories about snow never happening due to global warming turn around 15 years later and laugh about it. Do try and understand that when you have been actually paying attention (and not just wringing your hands and worrying) to the 'message' and what climate change is attributed to have caused, for 15+ years it's pretty obvious to see the hyperbole and just plain stupidity when it comes to global warming - sorry climate change, where it is never wrong, the science (which was settled) never changes unless there is a pause and then it changes to match the data and it was settled and now it's settled again. Or you know when we say there is an el nino when the criteria to actually announce that is a hard coded science flowchart requiring 5 months of elevated readings of which we only have 4 currently (assuming NOAA's data for this month is also elevated) - but you know that'd be using actual science to question why the rush to breathlessly declare el nino when it's not certain yet. That is really the question.

Re:ahhhh....That old scam

[sjames]

Too bad there's no "not even wrong" moderation...

Re:Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

[duckintheface]

The point that is misunderstood by many people is that CO2 released today contributes to the greenhouse effect for hundreds of years. That means that even if we stopped releasing any fossil fuel carbon today (not going to happen), the temperature of the earth would continue to rise for a long time on the time scale of a human civilization. And that will do damage to the biosphere that will be permanent (i.e. last for millions of years). Massive loss of species has already begun and will get worse no matter what we do. The question is whether we destroy much of the genetic diversity of the earth or all of it.

I'm sure that as soon as the science deniers realize their folly they will call for SCIENCE to save them. They will call for massive atmospheric engineering projects to reverse the effects they have caused. But it will be too late and the "projects" will cause more harm to the complicated climate system than they will alleviate.