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A Year On, What Flight Simulators Can't Prove About Flight MH370
NBC News, a year after the loss of Malaysian Airlines flight 370, has an interesting piece about various scenarios that would explain the plane's disappearance. From the article: The theory that the pilots turned west because of an emergency is undermined because they did not head back toward Kuala Lumpur, according to retired NTSB senior investigator Greg Feith. ... Feith said that turning off the communications and taking the aircraft to the remote Indian Ocean was a course of action consistent with someone trying to purposefully lose an airliner. "It's 20,000-plus feet deep there," Feith said. "It's going be very difficult to find." He added that "the first thing you're going to do" as a pilot during an emergency is "don the oxygen mask" and "confess to ATC [air traffic control], 'We've got an issue, we need to return.'" Feith, who investigated other so-called "murder-suicide" airline crashes while at the NTSB, said that he has "always postured at least that this was an intentional act by one or both pilots."
was running systemd . It got so pissed
How is this still a thing? Terrorist or not, pilots are suicidal just like everyone...the end.
With a similar anniversary of flight 17 shot by Russia-sponsored assholes in Eastern Ukraine (by mistake), Russian propaganda is spreading lunatic rumors about America shooting down MH370.
They don't have to convince anybody with such accusations. They just need to make enough noise to make the perfectly credible accusations against them look similarly lunatic to the short attention-span majority of the world's population...
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
There was an article in Wired quite awhile ago by a pilot. He said if there was a sudden change in direction, it was probably because the -experienced- pilot who was familiar with all the airports in the area, was looking for a safe airport. In that direction was a 7,000 foot runway. He theorized there was a nosewheel fire, the pilot turned and then everyone was overcome by smoke so the plane continued on untl running out of fuel.
http://www.wired.com/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/
NO ONE KNOWS what happens on that island. NO ONE.
Yet you know that plane has landed there. Sure.
Was it a black smoke plume that changes shape a lot? I'm pretty sure the island is moved by now, likely all are lost.
What satellite image would that be? Validated by what independent satellite survey professional?
All these 9/11 conspiracy theories follow the same pattern:
1) I don't know how something happened
2) ?????
3) Therefore the government did it and is covering it up
You're missing a giant piece of logic there on step number 2.
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
I think (2) is because they 'have their eyes open' and are super smart so they can see patterns where others can not. SUPER SMART DAMN IT!
Kim Jong Un needed new engineers to build his automatic cheese maker.
People fall back on these conspiracies in part because the plane has been missing for over a year, and they can't grasp how that's possible without there having been some willful act being part of the explanation. But the ocean is huge, and it's taken longer than this to find missing airliners before - just ask the French.
#DeleteChrome
Yeah, actually, you followed the pattern right there, to fit your idea more clearly:
1) I don't know how WTC 7 imploded due to fire.
2) ??????
3) Therefore the government did it and is covering it up.
You have a giant hole in your logic at #2, and #1 is really an argument from ignorance, a classical logical fallacy.
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
I think it's basically this:
1) I don't know how something happened
2) Oh, but wouldn't it be exiting if there was a great over-arching story behind it all?
3) Therefore the government did it and is covering it up
NO ONE KNOWS what happens on that island.
Unless they saw that particular James Bond movie.
My theory is a shoot down over the Spratly Islands airspace by China, a highly contested region between China and Vietnam. The plane showed a zero elevation near the location and was on a standard deviation from flight path along the vector. This was soon after entering Vietnamese airspace and the last known transmission. All the subsequent radar traffic is Indonesian military and US satellite data. I can only guess the official version of events is to prevent a possible trigger to a larger conflict that has been theorized as a likely scenario as to how WWW III could begin. This would likely be in the interests of Indonesia, Vietnam, US, and China and US ally Australia. If this is true it would also mean that Indonesia Airlines and military have been infiltrated by Russian operatives with a view to creating mischief that would reduce the US focus on the Baltic, Middle Eastern, and circumpolar contested oil production regions. You must admit there has been way higher than statistical norms of Indonesian airline disasters as of late and coinciding and involving Russian military actions in Ukraine. Some of the dirty tricks could have been a pay back. Indonesia possibly haveing multiple penetration by different operating factions. Divert the attention to Australia as it is extremely remote with poor coverage and vast saces so the search will never conclude, impossible to eliminate the false positive or ever thoroughly search the area, delaying the truth by decades.
There is an extensive thread about this on the Professional Pilot rumour network and they favour Hypoxia
It bugs me that from the beginning the MH370 disappearance does not seem to first be being approached as a possible criminal act. Were there any outrageous insurance claims following the flight? Were known drug kingpins contacted about losses that wouldn't normally be reported? Was there something on that plane worth (to an appropriately depraved mind) killing all of those people for?
That guy is nuts.
...gis sdrawkcab (usually not responding to ACs; don't bother posting as AC)
I'm guessing it's supposed to be posited. What's more "at least" is in the wrong place. I'm not sure if there even is a right place for it.
At the bottom of the
I am the pilot of MH370.
I know the pilots' security routine: quick metal detector gate and a light symbolic patdown. Smuggling the ceramic knife ($5 at Kitchens-R-Us) in my shoe will be easy.
I will execute at international ATC handoff, so it takes time for them to notice neither tower has my plane. I will excuse myself to the bathroom, retrieve the knife, and return to slit the co-pilot's throat. I will not be intercepted or talked down from my destiny, so I will shut down all the comms I can.
I will turn west, the route with the least amount of land before open ocean - I will avoid land to avoid military radar. (One radar does pick me up, but hey, no plan is perfect.) A moment at high altitude, combined with manipulation of cabin air flow, will take care of crew and passengers.
I will circle southeast towards the Antarctic, away from shipping routes and flight traffic. I will fly until my fuel is almost gone, to avoid leaving a fuel slick behind. Then I will land on the sea - all pilots practice doing that - and sink in one piece, so as not to leave a debris field.
All I do is for one goal: to disappear.
Why, you may ask. That is for me to know. Maybe I have decided to check out, and my culture frowns on suicide - and insurance won't pay off to my family in suicide. That's the point of disappearing - to keep you from knowing.
Would it be too cheesy for me to quote a TV series here: "This is my design."
He added that "the first thing you're going to do" as a pilot during an emergency is "don the oxygen mask" and "confess to ATC [air traffic control], 'We've got an issue, we need to return.'"
This is quite a surprising statement. In an emergency, the pilot priorities are:
1 - Aviate -- Maintain control of the aircraft
2 - Navigate -- Know where you are and where you intend to go
3 - Communicate -- Let someone know your plans and needs
in that precise order, and not in any other order. They are trained to proceed like this.
Rockwell Collins CMU-900 overheat cut off radio and the pilots made the trun for the best nearest airport before being over come by the fire.
it's pretty well documented that Pearl Harbor was a conspiracy.
Oh, this is a new one. You mean it wasn't the Japanese who bombed Pearl Harbor? Because that's what it sounds like you're saying.
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
As I understand it, doppler shift data from the satellite link points to a southerly trajectory, but the transciever in the satellite ground station compensates for doppler, leaving only noise. So much that we assume about the aircraft assumes the doppler data is correct, but it depends on a few Hz of shift.
http://michaelsmith.id.au
Did it also cut off ADS-B and ADS-C?
Palau Langkawi might have been closer by a few minutes but its not set up for night operations, doesn't have substantial medical or emergency facilities, and has a big hill at the eastern end of the runway. The logical action would be to return to KLIA. To do that they would have to overfly the Cameron Highlands again, but its only 6000 feet high.
http://michaelsmith.id.au
it's pretty well documented that Pearl Harbor was a conspiracy
And yet you couldn't provide a single link. Not even to Wikipedia.
Most credible historians shoot down such notions, FYI.
I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
it's pretty well documented that Pearl Harbor was a conspiracy
And yet you couldn't provide a single link. Not even to Wikipedia.
Most credible historians shoot down such notions, FYI.
No it's not. It's well-documented that if a very slightly different serious of events had occurred leading up to Pearl Harbor, either (1) Battleship Row would have been ready for the attack and there would have been much smaller loss of life, or (2) the US Carriers would have been at Pearl Harbor, fundamentally shifting the strategic balance of power in the pacific from 10:4 favoring Japan to closer to 10:0 favoring japan--so the Americans were incredibly fortunate in how much the loss of life galvanized the nation and how it did not seriously undermine their strategic interests.
But there's not enough evidence to show any of it was deliberate. So all you've got is speculation. When you're arguing someone deliberately let thousands of Americans and the pride of the navy old guard die and be destroyed, you need more than speculation.
Conspiracy theories emerge when you either have complicated events that are not entirely explained or when it would have been very easy for one or two actions to have caused a profoundly different result. Think of them as very unlikely possibilities that should, for the most part, be assumed to be untrue. A conspiracy theory only becomes a conspiracy when you have enough evidence to show that it is not merely possible, but that it is the most probable version of events. (There is a middle-ground, obviously, where investigation should be done to rule it out, if it is somewhat probable but not the most probable version of events.)
Sorry to yank you out of "The Matrix", but displaying such blatant willful ignorance about reality is just escapism now.
Are you going to keep a running count of the number of logical fallacies in your post? You want it to be the government, so you blame the government.
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
it's pretty well documented that Pearl Harbor was a conspiracy.
It's pretty clear that the US had intel that the Japanese intended to attack. Though the where and when were never clear. There may have been a cover-up about intel. After all, it wasn't a credible threat, until it happened. But once it happened, every nutjob conspiracy theorist and family member of a dead person would be claiming that they should have done something.
So yeah, I do think there was a cover-up about Pearl Harbor. A cover-up designed to protect the military intelligence organization who didn't figure it out until after it happened. There was no conspiracy to "allow" it to happen, no conspiracy to make it happen, and no conspiracy to cover up American knowledge of the attack (As the belief at the time was that there was no planned attack for that time and place), just a cover-up to hide some of what they did know, so as to not make it look like they should have known.
I've seen no "documentation" that contradicts that opinion, except at, perhaps, a micro-level, where one person guessed that there'd be an attack "soon", and that wasn't officially recognized or widely known.
Learn to love Alaska
Of course the Japanese did not bomb Pearl Harbour. Teddy Roosevelt did it, after FDR released him from cryosleep.
Just because you are paranoid does not mean that no-one is out to get you.
Yeah, but it'd make a better movie than Executive Decision.
Learn to love Alaska
They were all on, they just never had a connection. I've tried to get reception at 30k ft. I've never had any reception at all.
Learn to love Alaska
If your goal was to train hundreds of Jihadis in the art of hijacking modern jet-liners, then there is no real substitute for having the real thing in your possession - even if it is forever grounded in an underground bunker. You cannot just go and buy a 777-200 without leaving a trail. Plus a fair deposit......
I still wonder if the plane was stolen. No 'terrorist announcement' motive needed.
The fact that nothing has been identified is too mysterious. No oxygen masks, foam, rubber, sandals-nothing, 300 tonnes makes a big debris field, which expands exponentially over the weeks and months. All it takes is a single identifiable object found by a fisherman, beachcomber, surfer, coast guard, shipping or dog, in what is now a 12 month period.
Maybe it didn't 'go down' at all.
That's deep.
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
American has it own share of assholery
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I...
And of cause the russkies shot down a few airliner themselves too.
My theory is that there was a flash fire that pretty much instantly went from "Do you smell smoke" to "Ahhh my face is melting" then one of the brave pilots managed to dial in a rough turn to home into the autopilot before either fleeing the cockpit or dying. Then the plane filled with toxic smoke and sailed along with a dead bunch of occupants until it ran out of fuel. The autopilot then greased a perfect landing in the ocean keeping the plane largely intact where it slid peacefully to the sea floor.
This would explain the oddities, the lack of contact, the rough homeward direction, and its eventual destination.
I don't buy the suicide part because the pilots would assume that the plane would be found. Whereas they could simply screw up the landing and that would make them look stupid but not necessarily suicidal.
And the whole bit about him practising weird things with a flight simulator that is what most people do with flight simulators. A pilot would be the last person on earth do do something normal with a flight simulator. So either he is going to practice edge cases as a skill building exercise or he is going to slalom a 747 through a huge city because that is fun.
My personal bet is that the first bit of debris will show up in New Zealand and this will allow searchers to backtrack the currents to its actual destination.
What this all screams to me is that planes should be sending a regular report up to the satellites. It could even be an efficient system where the satellites don't even bother transmitting it back to earth unless requested. Or they could transmit a summary such as transponder, altitude, direction, speed, fuel, and maybe a vague summary of the system health back to earth and leave the details available upon request only.
The official narrative is the conspiracy theory.
When as in 1) the promoters of said narrative/theory proffer only the weak Government explanation that Cessena flight-school drop-outs with utility knives overcame a large, retired Marine pilot and performed flight maneuvers that a majority of type-certified pilots could not.
Defenders of the Narrative fall squarely in 1) as well, but by willful ignorance.
OK, you're framing it as different approach anyway....defend the weakness of your position by trying to say "the other side is weak, too."
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
It only "turns out" that way, because those same people, who protested it back then, also run major media outlets. Do you suppose, that Time-magazine's reporter could've written: "We were all morons doing the bidding of America's enemies"?
No, the most you could get 10 years after he went protesting, was to admit, their protest was coordinated — though it is unclear by who...
Please, what "war crimes" are you talking about? Saddam Hussein violated the cease-fire agreement of 1992 so many times, Clinton should've resumed shooting in his time. No, it was no "war crime". But let's not get too side-tracked...
Every little bit counts. Like I said, Putin does not need a "win" — a "tie" would be sufficient. And Westerners have always been gullible — the generation calling Bush "war criminal" was raised by morons seriously equating Joseph McCarthy to Lavrenty Beria...
Ah, I should have known... Where there are "war crimes", "war for oil" can not be far behind — like Moon-landing denials it just would not die. For 10 years Saddam Hussein was prevented from selling his oil. All we had to do to get it was to agree to lifting the sanctions — which would've been much cheaper than war. Instead, we went after oil-tycoons for breaking the embargo.
Of course, it was "better" — for we didn't annex anything. But see, win an argument, just use a (false) tu quoque to tie your opponent. And you are now doing (or trying to do) the same to me...
Score another one for Kremlin! Last time Crimea was part of Russia was 1954 — or 60 years ago. Before that, in 1918, it was part of Ukraine (36 years earlier). So, which one was "recent"?
It is just as full of ethnic Ukrainians now, but, more importantly, achieving that nice White appearance required ethnic cleansing it off Crimean Tatars, who were only allowed to return by the newly-independent Ukraine in 1990-ies. They are now in trouble again — suspected by the occupiers for their loyalty to Ukraine.
So what if it is "full of Russians"? Texas, Arizona, and California are full of Mexicans — would some new Santa Anna be justified invading those states and organizing a referendum?
Yes, and Romanov should not have sold Alaska — did you just pre-emptively justify Russian invasion into US? Can Japan now use the example to take back Kuril Islands? Japanese special forces may be just as "polite" as Russians were in Crimea and, once the occupation succeeds, arranging a "referendum" i
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
"then one of the brave pilots managed to dial in a rough turn to home into the autopilot before either fleeing the cockpit or dying"
The plane turned and tracked perfectly to the longest runway in the area - Pulau Langkawi
Pulau Langkawi is on the east side of Malaysia, a LOT longer than KL and has an easy ocean approach. KL is on the opposite side of Malaysia to the flight and there are 8000 foot mountain ranges in the way.
After passing Pulau Langkawi it seems to have been blown around by high altitude winds and got itself into (and stalled out of) coffin corner.(*)
Much of the "skirted around islands" shit was down to various countries refusing to admit that it went straight overhead without setting off their alert systems and the remaining tracks fit the known wind directions that day.
This insistence comes down to "Loss of Face" - Indonesia eventually admitted they had no records for the aircraft - not that they'd tracked it flying around their territory - and that admission involved greater loss of face than their initial denials.
All in all the most likely explanation is some sort of catastrophic failure which overwhelmed the crew between the time they turned around and the time the plane reached the field (easily explained by a fire fed by the cockpit oxygen system(**)). The pilot was known to be fastidious about planning and to have kept alternates programmed into the autopilot for each leg of his flights.
"What this all screams to me is that planes should be sending a regular report up to the satellites."
Many do. It's an added cost option on 777s and Malaysia airlines declined to spend the money for it. Such squawks are how the Air France debris was initially located.
MIA was facing major cutbacks after massive losses. Airline staff in all areas were reported to be lacking morale and there had been a large number of safety incidents both in the air and in maintenance shops (including a major cigarette-started fire which destroyed a lot of stuff in a heavy maintenance hanger, in an area which is non-smoking). The odds are high that this was another such event.
http://www.wired.com/2014/03/m... - remains the most compelling theory.
The only conspiracies which need to be considered are those of coverups - both within MIA and within various neighbouring countries military as they don't want to admit how badly they dropped the ball.
Having seen airlines go out of their way to deny culpability (Air New Zealand TE901), I'm quite prepared to believe that manglement would throw the pilots under a bus to save their own wretched skin.
(*) The electrical fire theory (possibly oxygen fed(**)) could have dumped all sorts of random garbage into the autopilot, but the general feeling is that after Pulau Langkawi the plane was simply flying "straight and level" (which will inevitably result in altitude changes unless manually corrected) and no bearings set, so crosswinds would cause directional changes - and all the known changes match prevailing winds at altitude.
(**) http://www.iasa-intl.com/folde... http://www.skybrary.aero/index...
Maybe step 2 could be that the BBC reported it 20 minutes before it actually collapsed and that seems suspicious.
The new right fascists are bilingual. They speak English and Bullshit.
Taking your .sig and applying the reasoning pattern you decry, the government was behind systemd.
"When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
Battleship row was not supposed to be ready for the attack. Pearl Harbor was supposed to be a safe haven for the US fleet, defended by the Army. In fact, General Short's actions were very questionable, and he seemed much more interested in preventing sabotage (despite orders that he consider air attack as a primary threat) and training pilots as scratch infantry. In fact, the Navy supplied the bulk of the effective defense.
Are you referring to the message to Pearl Harbor about the delivery of the fourteen-part message that was delayed due to transmitter problems and wound up being delivered by commercial means about as the attack started? I doubt Short would have paid any more attention to it than his orders or the war alert message he'd received ten days earlier. (A similar warning was sent to the Pacific Fleet at the same time, and Kimmel did seem to take it seriously. All battleships in Pearl Harbor were told to be able to man one anti-aircraft gun on a few minutes' notice.)
The aircraft carriers were quite busy in this period, and were not normally in Pearl Harbor. USS Enterprise was scheduled to be in harbor the morning of the attack, but was delayed one day by weather, and the other two operational Pacific Fleet carriers were not scheduled to be in harbor. At this time, both the US and the Japanese had six good fleet carriers, and Japan had four crappy light carriers against one US crappy fleet carrier wannabe. It wasn't going to go from 10:4 to 10:0.
Roosevelt had been trying to get the US into the war against Germany, and had ordered the US Navy to wage war against the German navy a few months earlier. Roosevelt seems to have wanted to avoid war with Japan, probably thinking it a distraction. The Tripartite Pact bound Germany and Italy to go to war against the US only if the US attacked Japan, which didn't happen, not to mention Hitler's habit of breaking treaties if they became inconvenient.
There was an extensive Congressional inquiry into the Pearl Harbor attacks just after the war, and a whole lot of material available. There really wasn't enough left uncovered to fuel a reasonable conspiracy theory, but that didn't stop people.
"When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
Your logic is impeccable.
Incidentally, I've been trying to change my sig for a while now, but sig-changing is broken on Slashdot. I can't wait until they fix that bug.
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
No, that doesn't combine with step 1 to produce step 3.
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
Sorry. I got confused I always see step 3 as profit.
The new right fascists are bilingual. They speak English and Bullshit.
The steel didn't need to melt to fail - it only needed to be heated to the point of being sufficiently weakened so as to lose its structural integrity. As to why the buildings collapsed down, just like a demolition, it is because the same primary force is acting in both cases - gravity. Gravity pulls all parts of the building down towards the ground - toppling over would require a MASSIVE lateral force to accelerate the incredible mass of the building laterally. There is no plausible mechanism for generating that force or applying it to the building's structure. Just because conspiracies have happened in the past doesn't mean that 9/11 was an intentional act perpetrated by the US government. Is it possible that some small element of the US intelligence apparatus knew of some aspect of the attack in advance and let it happen? Yes, but it is improbable. Don't attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Watch this documentary by National Geographic called "9/11: Science and Conspiracy". In it, they address all of the doubts that you raised, including the steel, the collapse, and thermite. http://youtu.be/OrBNJJc-DIY
Errr, no. 20,000 ft deep would put it in a fairly deep oceanic trench. Since we don't know where it landed, the appropriate depth to pull out of ones arsehole is the average depth of the oceans. Which is 12-14 thousand feet depending on who you ask.
Being wrong by a factor of about 50% doesn't suggest that any of the rest of TFA would be worth reading.
Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"