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California's Hot, Dry Winters Tied To Climate Change
mdsolar sends word that hot dry winters may be the norm in the future for California. "Climate change is one of the most prominent public health issues currently on the CDC's radar. The organization's Climate and Health Program attempts to help state and city health departments to prepare for the health impacts of climate change, which can come in the form of things like temperature extremes, air pollution, allergens, and changes in disease patterns; they can also be felt indirectly through issues like food security. Since 2012, California has been in the midst of a record-setting drought, with extremely warm and dry conditions characterizing the last three years in that state. A new paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences concludes that warming caused by humans is responsible for the conditions that have led to this California drought. This study, published by scientists affiliated with the Department of Environmental Earth System Science and the Woods Institute for Environment at Stanford University, used historical statewide data for observed temperature, precipitation, and drought in California. The investigators used the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), collected by the National Climatic Data Center, as measures of the severity of wet/dry anomalies. They also used global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to compare historical predictions for anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic historical climates."
Have they considered asking economists about the effects of price controls on water for agricultural uses?
Sometimes the obvious answer is the correct one... if you hold down the price of water, people (especially larger users) will use more of it, not less of it...
The party of stupid and the party of evil get together and do something both stupid and evil, then call it bipartisan.
Sympathies for the AGW folks.
Because I'm in California, and it's so goddamned terrible here that car washes are still operating at maximum efficiency.
And we're still farming where we have no business farming.
And we're still demanding people water their lawns.
And our water is still cheaper than other states I've lived in.
It's terrible, let me tell you.
The original paper http://www.pnas.org/content/ea... does not seem to make a big deal about Winter so TFA may be adding that owing to this Winter's weather which has had record warmth this Winter. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/...
Models compared with reality.
California is a different planet anyway!
My real estate is inland on a mountain.
Just make it legal for me to shoot the beach heads when they start to sink and I'm a-ok with saying that there is no global warming.
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
Any two trending time series will be correlated. These links don't mean anything substantial has been detected. Predict something precise then it is worth paying attention.
http://www.tylervigen.com/
In the example of fossil fuels, recently the price worldwide has dropped markedly.
Despite this, consumption has dropped.
Your claim may be obvious, but "obvious" in the same way as it's "Obvious the sky is a dome above our heads".
Every other day is AGW pushing BS
Some insights....I grew up in San Diego, droughts were fairly common.
I returned to southern California for school, and was there for the last half of the nineties, you know...those uber-hot years. Guess what, we were getting more rain those hot years. People were talking about the decades old drought finally coming to an end.
Than it began to get cooler again, and the droughts returned. For your info, droughts, deserts, etc are often tied to global cooling. Cooler global temperatures lock up moisture as ice. Resulting in increased ice caps, but also increased equatorial deserts.
Higher temperatures result in a much more humid global climate. Greener, greater moisture content. So when I see all the references to droughts. I think global cooling, not global warming.
While that is climate change. It's Earth, the climate is always changing - I'd be more afraid if it wasn't. The earth has experienced far cooler periods, and periods that were twenty degrees hotter than today. Life continued and thrived.
Here I am sitting in shorts and a t-shit while the rest of the country is shoveling snow off of their sidewalks.
It's been great for recreation but about once a week I ride up over the dam that contains the artificial Shasta Lake that is the source of Cali's main waterway, the Sacramento river. It's low. Really low. Worse, the snowpacks that feed it would not even be back to normal without five or six years of what's considered normal precipitation.
Stil, that's not the real problem. The real problem is almost entirely political.
We've been through more water scares than any other state in the nation. Back in the 70s and 80s the population centers have done the water rationing dance and per-person use is quite low compared to what it was. We can't squeeze any more water savings there.
Agriculture uses 75% of the water in california (Yes far more than municipal and industrial COMBINED), and the distribution of such is just plain fucked up. 100 year old water rights agreements let certain farmers suck the water dry in a manner that is neither fair nor efficient. We can grow plenty here with much less water that's currently being used. But we can't because of a fucked-up love triangle between rural farmers, rural politicians, and agreements that were signed more than a century ago - A time when you could drain a lake or divert a river and nobody would blink because water was plentiful and concern for the environment was everyone's last priority.
It gets weirder still.
Turns out much of the water in this state also comes from only recently understood vast underground aquifers.. And they're drying up. Turns our recent legal precedent lets management of underground aquifers trump water rights agreements if said aquifers are affected by water consumption.. So there's an end run around these ancient laws that are causing problems.
It's not climate change, it's “climate drivers” that are doing it.
CA has experienced droughts worse than this in the past.
News for ya, CA is mostly a desert.
Climate change means temps go up and temps can go down. Drought happens, and heavy rains happen. That is the climate changing for sure.
Don't be surprised when the next ice age hits. Weather is all about change. The question is how quickly humans adapt or not.
There are no loopholes. It's either legal or it's not.
For a while now I've been asking adherents of the Anthropogenic Global Warming theory to provide examples of just such predictions and so far nobody could manage... There are plenty of predictions that failed to materialize, and plenty of attempts to, sort of, "retroactively predict" some observed phenomena. But I have so far seen no mention of anything, that was predicted first and materialized later...
Can you offer a list of pairs of links: with the first link pointing at a quantifiable prediction and the second — at evidence of it materializing within, say, 80% of the predicted figure(s)?
The prediction and the materialization should be a few years apart (that is, successful prediction of tomorrow's rain does not count). Anybody up for it?
(Note, that any responses without at least one such pair of links may be returned unopened.)
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
show me some real data going back a few thousand years and i'll believe you
If it was the other side. As in too much rain it would also be Climate Change.
Have we no learned anything about the earth? Earth is ever changing. Always have and always will. Record colds through out parts of the world but yet when we look back over the years the days all have a record high and record low. In 1964 today the high was 80 and in 1932 it was 16. Today high was 59.
South Florida is at dire risk. We already have rising sea issues that are substantial and actually could effect the nation wide food supply as we are about the only spot in the US that can raise crops in winter. But we have an even more pressing problem. Diseases from tropical islands near Florida are becoming more common. In addition to malaria we now have two more mosquito born illnesses that are causing little outbreaks here and there. Just about any disease that flourishes in South America can now take hold here and they have many tragic illnesses down there that we do not normally see within the US. These diseases can generate quite an expense for society in general. We even have instances of pest invasions such as white fly that were caused by hurricanes blowing white flies all the way from the islands into Florida. White fly destroys trees and is very expensive to treat and keep your property livable. Citrus greening is already killing the citrus industry here. We are having invasions caused by global warming already.
I'm behind 7 proxies, but I'm in Florida and all it says is:
"California's Hot, Dry Winters Tied To [Redacted]"
What's it say? Is it Obama? I knew he caused it. I saw my state representative on Fox last night and he said it was Obama.
Watch how you word your summary of a scientific finding. In particular when the summary states:
A new paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences concludes that warming caused by humans is responsible for the conditions that have led to this California drought.
You shouldn't go to read the linked article and find the conclusions of the study state:
Our results suggest that anthropogenic warming has increased the probability of the co-occurring temperature and precipitation conditions that have historically led to drought in California.
The header, California's Hot, Dry Winters Tied To Climate Change fit the study. The start of the summary mdsolar sends word that hot dry winters may be the norm in the future for California fit the study. Resist the urge to overreach with the extra statement trying to sound like scientists have claimed proof that the drought is definitively the end result of AGW and naught else. Why? Because the scientists didn't say it, and they most likely didn't say it because they don't want to say something so stupid. Obviously draught is a part of the natural cycle in California without the benefit of AGW, no scientist is gonna be eager to declare that only AGW is responsible. Instead you will see the conclusion they ACTUALLY USED in the article noting instead that AGW absolutely contributed to, rather than definitively caused, the drought.
The difference between contributing to and worsening droughts and being the sole or dominant cause MATTERS.
it's called the weather
some years winter is mild, some years warm, some years tons of snow like Boston got
deal with it.
All of these hillbilly right-wing neo-nazi gun owners firing off trillions of rounds a second from their assault weapons are putting off too much CO2 for our environment to handle. It's time to take their guns as the president has said many times. Let's all get on board with President Obama and his program to curb guns in the hands of these sickening whackos! Vote Hillary!
rts
It has been clear skies for over a week. At this time of year, this is, I think, totally without precedent. I've only been here for 5 years but it feels completely unnatural. Even when I first moved here it rained basically without ceasing from November until almost June. There's been comparatively almost no rain this winter. The climate is fucked!
What ISN'T tied to climate change?
A List Of Things Caused By Global Warming
http://whatreallyhappened.com/...
Acne , agricultural land increase , Afghan poppies destroyed , Africa devastated, Africa in conflict, African aid threatened, African summer frost , aggressive weeds , air pressure changes , airport malaria , Agulhas current , Alaska reshaped, moves , allergy season longer , alligators in the Thames , Alps melting , Amazon a desert , American dream end , amphibians breeding earlier (or not) , anaphylactic reactions to bee stings , ancient forests dramatically changed , animals head for the hills, animals shrink , Antarctic grass flourishes , Antarctic ice grows , Antarctic ice shrinks , Antarctic sea life at risk, anxiety treatment , algal blooms , archaeological sites threatened , Arab Spring , Arctic bogs melt , Arctic in bloom , Arctic ice free , Arctic ice melt faster , Arctic lakes disappear , Arctic tundra to burn , Arctic warming (not), Atlantic less salty , Atlantic more salty, atmospheric circulation modified , attack of the killer jellyfish , avalanches reduced , avalanches increased , Baghdad snow , Bahrain under water , bananas grow , barbarisation , beer shortage , beetle infestation , bet for $10,000, better beer, big melt faster, billion dollar research projects , billion homeless , billions face risk , billions of deaths , bird distributions change , bird loss accelerating , birds shrinking , bird strikes , bird visitors drop , birds confused , birds decline (Wales) , birds driven north , birds return early , bittern boom ends , blackbirds stop singing , blackbirds threatened , Black Hawk down , blood contaminated , blue mussels return , bluetongue , brain eating amoebae , brains shrink , bridge collapse (Minneapolis), Britain one big city , Britain Siberian , brothels struggle , brown Ireland , bubonic plague , budget increases , Buddhist temple threatened , building collapse , building season extension , bushfires , business opportunities , business risks, butterflies move north, camel deaths , cancer deaths in England,cannibalism, cannibalism again , caterpillar biomass shift, cave paintings threatened , childhood insomnia, Cholera , circumcision in decline , cirrus disappearance , civil unrest , cloud increase , coast beauty spots lost , cockroach migration, coffee threatened , cold climate creatures survive , cold spells (Australia) , cold wave (India) , computer models , conferences , conflict , conflict with Russia , consumers foot the bill , coral bleaching, coral fish suffer , coral reefs dying , coral reefs grow, coral reefs shrink , coral reefs twilight, Cabbage Shortage , cost of trillions , cougar attacks, crabgrass menace, cradle of civilisation threatened , creatures move uphill, crime increase , crocodile sex, crops devastated , crumbling roads, buildings and sewage systems , curriculum change , cyclones (Australia), danger to kid's health , Darfur , Dartford Warbler plague , death rate increase (US) , deaths to reach 6 million, Dengue hemorrhagic fever , depression , desert advance , desert retreat , destruction of the environment , disappearance of coastal cities, disasters , diseases move from animals to humans , diseases move north , dog disease , Dolomites collapse , dozen deadly diseases , drought, ducks and geese decline , dust bowl in the corn belt , early marriages , early spring , earlier pollen season , Earth biodiversity crisis , Earth dying , Earth even hotter , Earth light dimming , Earth lopsided, Earth melting , Earth morbid fever , Earth on fast track , Earth past point of no return , Earth slowing down , Earth spins faster, Earth to explode,Earth's poles shift, earth upside down , earthquakes , earthquakes redux , earthquakes redux 2 , Egypt revolt , El Niño intensification , end of the world as we know it , erosion , emerging infections, encephalitis, English villages lost , equality threatened , Europe simultaneously baking and freezing, eutrop
-Styopa
Call it what it is, don't let the liberals use doublespeak to rebrand it from one thing to the next until the lies align enough with reality to avoid being called out on it.
Yes, just like the east's cold, wet winters are tied to climate change, this year. What are your predictions for next year?
What was the *BOOM*, did your head explode?
Waterfox - a Firefox fork with legacy extension support, security updates and better privacy by default.
Lets exclude all contradictory evidence of natural climate change and call people names! The GW spam here gets worse every day. Election season must be soon.
When Columbia had a mild winter that's linked to climate change.
When Scandinavia got more rain than usual in November that's linked to climate change.
When Canada experienced an unusually warm winter that's linked to climate change.
OMG, GUYS! THID IS SERIOUS! WE LIVE ON A PLANET WHERE THE CLIMATE CHANGES!
Must be a slow news day for this to make the headlines. There were probably no "Dog bites man" stories.
1. California is always a semi-desert, with the exception of the northern fifth of the state, which is a rainforest. Adapt or die, b*tc*s. Yes, that means sustainable crop practices.
2. You're not getting any extra power from Oregon or Washington this year, cause our snowpack is around 8 percent of what it normally has been (which will be the norm in 2025 due to global warming, by the way, but is not directly caused by that). So we need our water to sell bottled water to you idiots who fail to realize the fancy water you drink in plastic bottles is just our usual drinking water in Seattle that we let settle a bit so it's "fresh". No cheap electricity for you. Grow a pair and build more solar and wind, cause it's just going to get much much much much worse.
3. As to crop practices, do what British Columbia learned in the 1970s and 1980s. You've had 50 years to adapt. Mix crops (no monoculture), grow crop cover between tree rows (less soil loss, less water loss) which also fixes nitrogen and can kill bad bugs. Cover your dam water canals (hint: try using solar panels, win win) to reduce water evaporation. It's been done in other places in North America for a long time, cheap water is over.
4. Most of your water use and water waste is farming. Most of that is because you insist on growing artificially subsidized water intensive crops that aren't suited for your climate. Stop subsidizing those and let the market self correct that very very bad choice. Adapt.
5. There is no all or nothing artificial choice. Half measures are better than no measures. Small and moderate adaptations now, or even to partial removal of subsidies and misuse have major impacts. Try changing 1/10th of your crops to better methods. I drove thru almost all of Cali this past winter, you really haven't done much, and you could easily adapt without much of a problem, but you have to stop sticking your heads in the sands.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
And will continue to do so. There will be droughts and floods. But hey as long as we can tag on "global warming" or "climate change" we can use it as fear mongering to push through our political agenda.
When was the coldest February on record? Oh, you mean coldest for a small group of cities, not any particular state, region, country or the planet....However you have to also realize it was the hottest February on record for about the same number of cities on the west coast. So again, it is weather, not climate, you illiterate.
When you cant win, ad hominem.
Meanwhile, Central Europe had only about 7 days total this winter when mid-day temperature would stay below 0 degrees Celsius. That's in places where there used to be 10 inches of snow from early December to mid-March some 20 years ago and temperature wouldn't rise above -10 degrees Celsius until March.
What a shocker - man-made oases are being reclaimed by the desert when Cali runs out of fossil water. Nobody saw that one coming. Too bad we couldn't have guessed that a fucking DESERT would continue to be a desert when the idiot humans who pollute and use up its resources have polluted and used up every fucking thing.
Show where this is the case. Anywhere- where a climate scientist referred to a local cold snap as proof of climate change.
You can't. The *BOOM* only happened in the vacuum between your ears.
That means the entire earth, including the poles, are tropical.
Or your definition is wrong.
Arizona had an unusually wet 2014, plus two major storms so far in 2015. How does all that man-belched atmospheric carbon know to loiter over California, and not spread over adjacent states until it's time for the political Maoists who interpret climate science to suit their own agenda to proclaim the next apocalypse?
No significant average temperature change in 15 years and idiots are still going on about climate change. Yes climates change but getting oneself all worked up for a non-event in any sort of catastrophic terms is ridiculous. The answer to insufficient fresh water in various places is irrigation from desalinization. Which is largely a matter of cheap enough energy.
Exactly. There's 'inertia' to consider as well.
IE if gasoline is high enough, long enough, lots of people buy fuel efficient vehicles. They don't instantly dispose of them just because oil(and gasoline) prices subsequently drop.
If you 'suddenly' increase the price of water for one year, the farmers will grumble and pay for it. Some will go out of business, but that happens whenever you increase the price of something, or even don't decrease it fast enough. Some farmers just aren't good businessmen.
If you go, okay, now it's $1 per 100k liters(1/2 the price British Columbia recently started charging), while telling them that the price is going to double each year for the next 10 years, they'll start adjusting how they do business.
We know that there are wasteful watering methods that lose over half the water used to evaporation before it hits the plants. We also know there are systems where the only water lost is pretty much confined to the food products you take out of the specialized recycling greenhouses.
The trick is to get the farmers to use a sustainable amount of water. Even just burying seep lines can drop usage by over 75% over daytime spray irrigation.
I don't read AC A human right
Cue the sky is falling crowd again. 10-50-100 years of climate data is worthless. The earth is how many millions of years old? Plus, I remember as a school age teenager in the early 70's, how everyone was talking about we were entering a new ice age, due to pollution, dumping crap in the water, smog, etc....now after getting rid of lead in gasoline, using energy saving appliances, lights, houses etc...it's warming up? If that is the case, then maybe we should go back to pollution and wasting energy, just to cool us down a little?
It's all the hot air coming out of Sacramento. Ironically, they keep yammering on about climate change so they really only have themselves to blame.
You know what else is caused by global warming? Nearly everything.
http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/globalwarming2.html
I don't get how even on slashdot you get so many fucking unbelievably insane ass-wipes who believe in the scientific method *except* when it applies to global warming. However, every time it's mentioned they come out in the crazy droves to drop their dumb-ness on the rest of us, so, by all means crazy morons - have at it.
Human climate change was responsible for the blip of cool wet weather, and now things are coming back around to typical long dry seasons.
California has a long record of occasional severe and long-lasting (up to 40 years long) (one of many links)
droughts (all of which pre-date the car, and even the coal-fired power plant).
Sadly, "Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it" applies in more than way ... think about it.
California's problems have been made artificially far worse by politics - We have MILLIONS of illegal aliens adding to the already-too-large civilian population that needs water AND we have big agribusiness planting lots of water-hungry crops that are totally inappropriate for the region and only work with imported water (which was ok when neighboring states had few people and needed little water). And then, on top of all that, we have politicians pandering to all the "greenies" and demanding that large volumes of potable water get flushed into the sea to protect certain species, oppose desalinization plants, etc...
the fact that its in.......you know.... A MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATE. Next thing you know these climate nutzis will be blaming their manbearpig god for the lack of snow in the Philippines!
Regardless of how much scientific evidence you throw at them, you will never convince the Slashdot crowd that climate change is anthropogenic. Slashdot has become the last refuge for irrational antiscientific ideology.
And people wonder why we have global warming doubters. With all the acronyms and techspeak, it might as well be written in Swahili.
Please just fuck off with that shit!
Any fucking thing that the weather does is hyped to the fucking moon and blamed as climate change!!!..
Just because it ties into your fucking stupid biases you don't fucking notice!
... frackin' change. What the hell isn't these days?
And all predictions made with 50% certainty.
Oh, and this has all happened before climate change.
Someone is making money off the 'climate change' mantra, which means pronouncements in that regard are no longer credible. Too much noise in the message. Don't care.
"Consensus" in science is _always_ a political construct.
Well, you can sit here loudly proclaiming your ignorance as if it's something to be proud of, or you can educate yourself, answering your question and preventing more unfortunate outbursts which tarnish your reputation further.
You might also want to learn that Arizona started the year unusually dry, but it should leave its drought conditions in April. But whatever - don't let facts get in the way of an insane rant against Maoists! They're simply everywhere, didn't you know? Scary! Boo!
Actually the first big storm of the year started onNew Year's Eve, and was in progress as the new year dawned. Can't get any earlier than that
The people claiming that 'weather is not climate, unless it's on our side' are not the climate scientists, but the apocalyptics who have been pulling for the extinction of mankind since the early Seventies. We were all gonna die of running out of food, then because of the coming ice age, then running out of industrial metals, then because of nuclear anything, then acid rain, then the disappearing ozone layer. Climate is just the latest hope the Luddite lobby has for wiping out the hated human species.
So you really don't care about learning, just complaining. Gotcha. Good jerb. You are a credit to your family.
Based on models with huge errors and another huge one just found
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/03/10/whoops-study-shows-huge-basic-errors-found-in-cmip5-climate-models/
You insist on living in a desert, you get lots of sunshine and not very much rain. That's WHY they are deserts! California was one before humans arrived, it remains one today, and it will revert to one when liberals join the dodos. It right now pretends to be otherwise by swiping water from every other place around it. Whether it swipes more water, or less water, is a function of how the DESERT is progressing, and almost certainly not linked with global anything. Stop lecturing people about WEATHER when LOCALITY has even more to do with a LOCAL problem.
I wish to God New England could get some drought. Some heat would be appreciated too. Of course the fact that we're freezing our frickin' asses off up here and digging mountains of snow out every week doesn't mean we don't have global warming! - or so say people who LIVE IN A FRICKIN' DESERT!
California isn't a desert.
This study is interesting in light of the fact that a recent NOAA study found that the current California drought is not caused by climate change. In fact, under climate change California winters are supposed to get wetter, if also hotter. See http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/s... .