Scientific Study Finds There Are Too Many Scientific Studies
HughPickens.com writes: Chris Matyszczyk reports at Cnet that a new scientific study concludes there are too many scientific studies — scientists simply can't keep track of all the studies in their field. The paper, titled "Attention Decay in Science," looked at all publications (articles and reviews) written in English till the end of 2010 within the database of the Thomson Reuters (TR) Web of Science. For each publication they extracted its year of publication, the subject category of the journal in which it is published and the corresponding citations to that publication. The 'decay' the researchers investigated is how quickly a piece of research is discarded measured by establishing the initial publication, the peak in its popularity and, ultimately, its disappearance from citations in subsequent publications.
"Nowadays papers are forgotten more quickly. Attention, measured by the number and lifetime of citations, is the main currency of the scientific community, and along with other forms of recognition forms the basis for promotions and the reputation of scientists," says the study. "Typically, the citation rate of a paper increases up to a few years after its publication, reaches a peak and then decreases rapidly. This decay can be described by an exponential or a power law behavior, as in ultradiffusive processes, with exponential fitting better than power law for the majority of cases (PDF). The decay is also becoming faster over the years, signaling that nowadays papers are forgotten more quickly." Matyszczyk says,"If publication has become too easy, there will be more and more of it."
"Nowadays papers are forgotten more quickly. Attention, measured by the number and lifetime of citations, is the main currency of the scientific community, and along with other forms of recognition forms the basis for promotions and the reputation of scientists," says the study. "Typically, the citation rate of a paper increases up to a few years after its publication, reaches a peak and then decreases rapidly. This decay can be described by an exponential or a power law behavior, as in ultradiffusive processes, with exponential fitting better than power law for the majority of cases (PDF). The decay is also becoming faster over the years, signaling that nowadays papers are forgotten more quickly." Matyszczyk says,"If publication has become too easy, there will be more and more of it."
Predictable, but sad outcome of the popularity contest that our lives have been converted to. Now mandatory for nearly all lifestyles and incomes.
The solution is simple. Throw out studies that sound "too meta".
claimed they dont respond to polls.
Where's the study which examines studies about studies and found that 50% of them are fueled by irony.
Further study is needed to confirm that number.
Does that include this one?
Deal with reality - the world as it is - rather than ideality - the world as you would like it to be.
I am going to write up a project proposal to do a scientific study about why scientific studies are exploding at exponential rate. But calling it exponential before the doing the study would be prejudicial, so I am going to have to do a prelim study to determine whether or not it *is* exponential.
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
As Slashdot patrons are eager to point out every time this sort of story gets published, the phenomenon described is not necessarily a bad thing.
Many physical chemists these days are investigating ways to build nanostructures that can demonstrate interesting phenomena. For example, chemists have known for a long time that certain molecules will scatter light in the visible range but decrease its frequency by a molecule-specific constant. This process is called Raman scattering. These molecules are often dissolved in water, and it was recently shown that the adding metal nanoparticles to the solution will dramatically increase the amount of observed Raman scattering. Suddenly there's a lot of new research to do: How does the increase depend on the nanoparticles' sizes? On their shapes? On the particular metal of which they're made? On whether their surfaces are smooth or rough? What if the nanoparticles are hollow, or composed of layers of different materials? What are the theoretical explanations for the observed behaviors? And do any phenomena *other* than Raman scattering benefit from the presence of these nanoparticles?
Many papers have been (and are still being!) published on all the clever things people have tried with these nanoparticles. Ten years from now, we'll have a pretty understanding of all the properties of surface-enhanced Raman scattering and most of these papers will be "forgotten" as researchers consolidate their knowledge into a couple of good textbooks. But that's perfectly fine---in fact, that's the whole point of scientific progress. Science is the process of observing a lot of complicated stuff and finding the most compact explanations for everything that was observed. It's nice that eighty years ago one researcher could sometimes discover a new phenomenon and provide a complete explanation for it before publishing his knowledge to the world. Today we have more researchers exploring a larger space of possible experiments, and the things they're studying are much more complicated. So they publish more papers as "scratch work" to help other researchers who are investigating the same phenomena, and eventually these papers are replaced by books. Again, that's perfectly fine.
People are surprised that their are two many studies when when we keep pumping out academics who need to publish in the field lest they perish? That's like saying we're installing too many toilets because most only get used a handful of times.
I'm a consultant - I convert gibberish into cash-flow.
Everyone wants their 15 minutes of fame, even scientists. Perhaps more so than others, because their pay scales and tenure often depend on being published and cited as often as possible.
The sad thing is that even a plethora of citations does not demonstrate the quality of a given paper. It just means it had one or a few quotable paragraphs; not that it's methodology or conclusions were necessarily stellar.
When I worked on some research back in the university days, the prof in charge of publishing the paper insisted on citing a whole bunch of papers that neither I nor my cohort had ever read. Although the professor was only supposed to be the guide for the research, he'd read those papers so he insisted they had to be cited.
I've always thought that was just "citation bloat" to try to make our own paper look more "researched" than it was.
I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
... we do need some way to separate good scientists that are working really hard and shit ones that are slacking off.
So... do we have another method besides demanding that they be in various journals at some interval?
Why do these studies need to be in journals at all? why not just have publications put out by every university where they internally audit every paper and if it is valid... publish it.
Sure, you're going to have a lot of boring studies but so what? Science doesn't have to be exciting to be useful. And possibly if there was less bullshit in the studies they'd be a better resource.
I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
And find there are too many first posts.
The crop of PhDs from the last 10 or so years are either unable or unwilling to 'hit the books'. If they can't find it in an electronic database AND easily download a PDF, they will ignore the existence of the work.
Such work often includes seminal publications, REVIEW articles of a field, and things like conference proceedings before 'everything-PDF' – all of which contain a wealth of information.
It really bugs me when I see cited references from "whoever did something like that most recently," rather than drilling down to the original source. Unfortunately, there seems little we can do about it, aside from good scientists not referencing lazy scientists.
Pay Walled Knowledge Is Not Useful
This is most likely an effect of new studies replacing older studies more rapidly when more studies are published in a field. The expected time until a study gets obsoleted by newer, superior studies thus gets shorter. Citations to older studies thus decline faster than before.
being a scientist these days has become something like a job option. then work productivity is measured by number of publications.
It saddens me to see so many sarcastic and cynical posts which fail to demonstrate that the poster has given the issue any thought whatsoever. Does the Slashdot community really consider it self-evident that scientific research is a failed enterprise? And does the Slashdot community really have no idea how scientific research works?
Scientific papers aren't published for your benefit, you silly Slashdot reader. They're published for the benefit of other researchers. Suppose that some meta-researcher studied email patterns at your place of employment and found that this year a smaller percentage of your emails are replies to other messages [as compared to last year]; that is, a higher percentage of this year's emails are about new subjects. Then this paper gets referenced on Slashdot and someone (the author of the original article, the Slashdot submitter, or the editor) suggests that the lower reply percentage implies that intelligent discussion must be on the decline at your workplace because discussion requires people talking back-and-forth about the same topics. Then imagine that a bunch of people make short sarcastic posts that agree with that interpretation and variously lament about the decline of society as a whole or of your workplace in particular.
Let us now make the biggest assumption of all and suppose that you have enough self-respect to be offended by this challenge to your intelligence. What would be the most mature contribution you could make to this discussion? I suppose it could be something like, "Your statistical analysis of my company's email habits is interesting, but your interpretation seems a bit misguided; it seems like a pretty big jump to go from 'percentage of emails which are replies to other emails' to 'abundance of intelligent discussion.' "
So too it is with research papers. A statistical analysis has shown that researchers in various fields are more likely to cite recent papers than older papers, and the "half-life" of the typical paper (in the author's own words) has decreased somewhat over the last couple of decades. What conclusion should we draw from this? If scientists are less likely to cite a ten-year-old paper today than they were a decade or two ago, does that mean that there are "too many papers" and they're just swamped with recent stuff? Or does it mean that they're sufficiently well-organized that problems that used to take fifteen years to work out now only take five, and the investigations are moving on to new things?
To paraphrase an old joke: I don't go to where you work and statistically analyze all the dicks in your mouth. So stop doing the same to scientists.
People are surprised that their are two [sic!] many studies when when we keep pumping out academics who need to publish in the field lest they perish? That's like saying we're installing too many toilets because most only get used a handful of times.
The problem is not "too many academics", but "too many studies" - and there is a difference: many academics with fewer studies -each involving more academics- may produce better studies (and even... better academics?!).
Each toilet of your example can only be used -and requires the butt of- one academic at a time, but each study can be served by more than one academic at a time.
I am a Greek; there is so much to be "discoved" by modern researchers in the studies of my ancestors that i often wish to stop "modern research" for a long period and just study... the discoveries of ancient Greeks!
Maybe because most studies are put out before even verified. Seems like the studies are either stupid, and a lot of them are later disproved, and many are paid to get the desired results. (See climate change)
I'm just gonna go ahead and assume this headline wasn't supposed to come out for 17 more days.
Although this could be due to the "publish or perish" mentality, that often forces researchers to break down their work in several publications of lesser impact than make a single publication of larger impact, the fact that the "lifetime" of publications is getting shorter may also mean that the research is speeding up. Knowledge moves faster from papers, then to books, and then to being "common", and before you know it you don't really have to cite someone every freaking time anymore because everyone knows what you're talking about (I'm talking about things that are considered "common knowledge" here; you surely don't cite Newton every time you mention that white light can be broken up using a prism). More commonly, somebody will sum the "state of the art" into a book or in a good introductory chapter of a doctoral dissertation and people will cite that, instead of all the papers. Also, books keep getting cited for decades after their publication, so maybe a follow-up study could check whether there is a similar trend in the citation of books?
While the plurality of journals has made publishing quite easy nowadays, I don't think this is the reason for the observation that papers get forgotten faster. A bad paper will not even get noticed and will probably get cited only by its own authors in subsequent publications. Since we are talking about papers that do get cited here, this means that they have managed to attract some attention, and can therefore not be too crappy.
Has science gone too far?
For a change, this is something that appeared on SoylentNews before Slashdot. It has been interesting tracking this article through the social media sites that I frequent:
Reddit — Submitted Wed, Mar 11; 211 comments at the time of writing this comment
SoylentNews — Submitted Sunday, Mar 15; 16 comments at the time of writing this comment
Slashdot — Posted Monday, Mar 16; 30 comments at the time of writing this comment
Ask me about repetitive DNA
When you see ads on TV telling you about a "study" proving Ab-Something works x% better than Ab-Otherthing - its sort of given how "studies" work.
With the "publish or perish" culture thriving, more studies that help to determine what needs to be studied would be great. I fear that this doesn't happen enough because people feel like it gives away ideas that others might complete. But if the researcher who can show the need for a study can actually follow up, then they can get a head start on that work. If not, then why not let someone else do it? In academia, this is supposed to be about the good of the species and not some misguided desire to become the next science pop star.
And that's point two. If you can't do, teach. If you can't do and you can't teach, become a celebrity. Help the public understand science in layperson's terms, without the need to teach the full rigorous skill set. We need that. The step before celebrity is journalist. So, that can come full circle back to doing and teaching. If you can crystallize concepts well, and you can communicate them in a tone others respond to, then we need you helping the public. What good does it do to answer humanity's questions if nobody can understand the answer?
Unfortunately, none of this is going to change until boomers finally pass the torch once and for all. And ladies and gents, I hate to be the bearer of bad news but if we don't prevent this kind of problem in the future then we're going to be far worse than boomers. Life expectancy tends to increase as the species ages.
next IgNobel awards.
"Win treats sysadmins better than users. Mac treats users better than sysadmins. Linux treats everyone like sysadmins."
is that others want to decide what you get less of.
There is too many of them.
It seems like this (too many scientific papers) is a problem that could be solved by data mining. I know that concept is considered evil these days, but it does have it's practical, non-evil uses.
It was inevitable, really, that at some point there would be more science going on than could conveniently be published.
Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
Having so many publishing venues available right now, with (thankfully) every day more of them available under open access licensing schemes, we can get to much more research in our field.
That, however, means that when I start reading on a subject related to my area of study, there are too many documents fighting for my attention. And I will undoubtedly miss many among them, just because of sheer probability.
Of course, the same will happen to my published works: They will no longer be _so_ unique, they will also depend on my luck for you to read them.
Of course there are too many (useless or only marginally useful) scientific studies. Just look at the people who are working as scienctists that you know personally or that you otherwise vaguely know, how smart they are (everyone cannot be an Einstein) and your estimate of the quality of knowledge artifacts that they would produce, and what is the research they do, not just limited to your own field of schooling or expertise. And what do your friends and connection who are researchers have to say about the publish or perish regime, and whether they are happy about how they are able to go about their research. There is no need for some scientific study to tell us what most people who are not working as scientists ourselves - and thus have no need for convincing ourselves that the world of science is so fantastic and perfectly objective - can plainly see bright as day if we just open our eyes.
As progress in most scientific fields occurs at an ever faster rate, it is logical that previous research is more quickly supplanted by more relevant recent papers. Are we supposed to be surprised by this phenomenon?
This reminds me of my last job. There was a BIG concern (and it was justified) that managers had no time to actually manage their departments or their people because they were doing nothing but sitting in meetings 8-9 hours/day. I didn't see my manager for over a month once because he was SOLIDLY in meetings from the time he got there until the time he left. Upper management's response to this: "Let's have a meeting to discuss that".
you just made my whole evening. I love to wander among wiki articles, and now you have given me a map! I'm happier than a tie dye teddy bear jumping and laughing sparkling rainbows with confetti
Eliminate biased studies and the rest can see the light of day.
'Scientific Studies' today are a creation of a Marketing department in many cases. There is a product to be sold and it needs support and affirmative publicity. A company may do several studies in hope that one or two will be useful in their advertising. The others tend to disappear.
The US government (and other governments and non-profits) conducted studies for many years with the intention of proving that smoking and second hand smoke were dangerous. When the statistical validity of their second hand smoke studies was not sufficient, they simply redefined the term 'statistical significance'. They are the government, after all.
Any study that begins with the premise of proving some theory is flawed. They should clearly state the theory and try every possible means to disprove it. If they can't disprove it, they present their findings to their peers so that they may attempt to disprove it. Failure to disprove the theory over time can lead to general acceptance of it. The scientific method at work. Most studies do it backward.
Big bold letters at the top of every study should reveal who paid for it and the financial interest of every contributor. It's a start, but still subject to corruption.
...omphaloskepsis often...
I just know there is a relevant XKCD to back this up.
Someone needs to do a study on XKCD comics and their ability to predict future slashdot headlines.
Competing standards is almost spot-on concerning a study about too many studies. But there is also Meta-Analysis.
...we heard you like scientific studies. so we did a scientific study of scientific studies so you can science while you science.
stephen
If everyone must make their data available, then a paper will be judged on the strength of its:
a) academic contribution; and
b) quality/usefulness of the data.
So you might not be the author of the greatest paper, yet your impact might be the quality of the experimentation and resulting data.
Right now, papers appear and the data is just hearsay. In that environment, anybody can publish anything ... and today, there's is a strong incentive to do just that.
"Consensus" in science is _always_ a political construct.
Department of Redundancy Department
What they need to do is rank the studies based on the number of vowels in the authors name.
"My sister says all the good thesis topics have been taken. She's doing hers on how a dust speck bounces when it hits the table"
"My brother is doing his on the letter G".
Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
That rather than shorter attention spans, or more useless papers, papers are not staying relevant as long simply because the rate of technological progress continues to increase?
For example, a paper on VHS would have been cited during a longer period than a paper on DVD, which would have been cited more than a paper on Blu-Ray... The rate of innovation has increased, and thus the duration of the usefulness of the discoveries as compared to updated versions of the same has gone down.
- Holy crap, I've got MOD points! Who thought that was a good idea.
The problem is NOT too many studies. The problem is too few Survey papers.
When entering a new field of knowledge (or getting back up to speed in an old one), most folks will start with Wikipedia (to get a quick handle on the domain's terminology), then get the best text books in the field (pedagogical approach), and finally move on to tools like Google Scholar to climb the citation tree.
That's skipping a vital step: Reading the relevant "survey" papers.
Writing a survey paper must be one of the most thankless tasks in research, looking at everything published within a limited scope, comparing and contrasting the papers, and summing them up with a view toward the future. The best survey papers I've read tend to be written by three types of folks: 1) Those at the start of their careers, paving their own way into a field. 2) Those at the end of their careers, desiring to sum things up. 3) Extraordinary (and possibly deranged) individuals who just like writing survey papers.
Survey papers don't discuss only the knowledge. They can, and often do, also discuss writing, presentation, and organization. Most importantly, they also discuss technique, both theoretical and experimental.
One of my favorite papers was a pure rant about the misuse of statistics in medical trials, covering not only gross errors, popular misconceptions, and actual fraud, but also revealing lower-level biases and bad historical traditions. Several highly-cited papers were torn to shreds, and a few hidden gems were revealed.
Survey papers don't just boil down the content of a bunch of papers into a more conveniently digestible form. They also show how papers on identical topics can have vastly different impact in the field due to the clarity of exposition. Survey papers can also reveal which papers created new terminology that spread throughout the field, or techniques that changed how the field was explored. They can reveal how a field evolved and matured.
The primary negative aspect of survey papers is simple: They are always historical, and never up-to-the-moment. But that's also their greatest virtue: After digesting the relevant survey papers, the number of individual papers left to read is reduced by orders of magnitude.
So, as I said at the start: The problem is NOT too many studies. The problem is too few Survey papers!