How To Make Moonshots
An anonymous reader writes Google Glass failed. Its self-driving cars might change the world. At Google[x], pursuing the biggest, craziest projects means getting comfortable with failure — and embarrassment. Astro Teller, who leads Google's experimental lab Google[x], embraces the idea that failing fast is a way to learn even faster. "Larry Page told me, a little over two years ago, that he wanted to see us crash at least five of these scale versions of the energy kite. Obviously he wants us to be safe and we work very hard to be safe in everything that we do. What he meant by that was that he wanted to see us push ourselves to learn as fast as possible and though the learning from the crashing itself would be close to zero, he was pointing out that if you aren't failing, if you aren't breaking your experimental equipment at least occasionally, you could be learning faster."
For most of us there's a significant incubation period that might even require profitability before we can afford to push past the point of safety or reliability and dial it back.
That's a sign that your aspirations are too aspirational. Failure is a common consequence of attempting to do things, and if you can't afford to fail, you're betting against the odds.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
2 oz Gin
3 oz Clam Juice
1 dash Tabasco
They could have just googled for it :-)
"Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
A boy once asked a successful businessman what makes a man successful?
"Good decisions, my boy, good decisions!"
The boy thought for a moment and then asked how does a man learn how to make good decision?
"Bad decisions, my boy, bad decision."
I've found in life life I learn more from my mistakes than my successes. Similar to how poker players can rarely tell you about all the pots they've won, it's the big ones they lost that stand out in their minds.
Feel free to change gender of the examples. It doesn't change the message.
If you were me, you'd be good lookin'. - six string samurai
You learn no more from failure than you learn from success. There are many ways to fail and few ways to succeed, thus it is better to learn what to do than what not to do.
This is a rational argument applied to the real world, and it doesn't hold true. Rational arguments are almost *never* true when applied to the real world, unless they start from a fundamental model and build up. (And in that case you can make testable predictions.)
Eighty percent of first businesses fail, but only 20% of *second* businesses fail, and it's not because people don't try to do it right the first time.
Both Thomas Edison and [head of IBM] Thomas J. Watson have extensive experience in this, and both have written positions on the subject. When someone approached Watson and asked "how can I increase my success rate", he responded "double your failure rate". When someone asked Edison how he could continue researching the electric light bulb after failing 5,000 times, he replied "I haven't failed 5,000 times, I know 5,000 ways that won't work" (source).
The rational argument fails when it's applied to the risk/reward formulation. Each time you fail you lose 1x the value of the experiment, but each time you succeed you regain 50x the value of the experiment in profit.
The mantra in the IT world is "fail fast, fail often", which reflects the risk-reward equation very well. It takes almost nothing to set up a website showing your idea to the world, and almost nothing to shutter it 6 months later.
But once in awhile, that idea becomes popular and profitable and you can recoup your investment many times over. That's why people should fail; or rather, not be afraid of failure.
Not because of any rationalization, but because it's historically the route to success.