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Why the Framework Nuclear Agreement With Iran Is Good For Both Sides
Lasrick writes: Ariane Tabatabai breaks down the details of the framework agreement between Iran and the P5+1 that was announced Thursday. It appears to be better than most analysts expected, with positive outcomes for both sides. It truly seems historic: "A number of these steps will, in effect, be irreversible. They will not just limit Iran's nuclear capability for 10 to 15 years, but will reshape it entirely and indefinitely. ... [B]oth sides stand to gain from the framework agreement, which should also be considered a victory for the global nonproliferation regime. Ahead of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference that begins in late April, where no major achievements in nonproliferation are likely to be announced, the framework agreement is a very important success."
The woman is positively delusional. Neville Chamberlain could have done better.
Global humanity fucked up when we let Isreal have nuclear weapons and shit all over the NPT. This just kicks the can down the road. T2-style Judgement Day will be a few years later than expected is all.
Iran will mothball all its NES and Playstation-level cetrifuges, while keeping all its Xbone and PS4 centrifuges running full tilt. Wouldn't you, in the same situation?
"You can keep your doctor if you like him."
Now you are trusting the same man to not allow a nuclear war to happen.
From the second the GW Bush made his crazy ill-advised "Axis of Evil" speech and then proceeded to invade one of those Axis members, it was pretty much guaranteed that Iran and North Korea would pursue nukes (and NK has already succeeded). They're not stupid. They know nukes are the only way to assure you won't be invaded or overthrown by the U.S.
So if you don't suck up to Iran and give them a deal that says "We're not going to invade you if you'll just play ball," then it's really only a matter of time. Mossad can car-bomb all the scientists it wants. The U.S. can release a hundred Stuxnets. But eventually it WILL happen.
So if you don't give them a deal, you're really only assuring it. Now, maybe they'll still do it anyway. But at least this way there is a CHANCE they won't.
SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
They're going to get nuclear weapons if there ISN'T a deal. Rejecting the deal will only assure it. At lease this deal gives us a chance to stall it, or maybe make some headway on becoming finally more friendly. You know "friendly," as in they're one of only two allies who can help to really fight Isis (the other being the Assad regime in Syria). "Friendly" as in WE FUCKING NEED THEM.
The only other option is to go to war with them and overthrow the government. And we saw how wonderfully that turned out in Iraq, didn't we?
So, are you going to add another state to the caliphate or deal?
SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
All we had to do, was simply not lift the sanctions.
That was it. All we had to do was LITERALLY NOTHING, and they still fucked it eight ways from sideways.
The new agreement guarantees Iran will have plenty of money to finish up work on shine new nuclear weapons and improve the ICBMs they already have (oh, you thought any kind of nuclear agreement would be linked to getting rid of ICBMs with no other purpose than nuclear weapon delivery? HA HA HA HA HA).
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Couple things you don't seem to be aware of -- Iran is at war with the USA's ally Israel via proxies. Iran's leaders are threatening to destroy Israel and wipe it off the map. It is perfectly rational for Israel to bomb Iran's nuclear weapons programs back into the stone age, and they are itching to do so. So yes, there are threats being made to force a "sovereign nation" to bend to the will of other nations, but that's because negotiators are trying to avert a war, or at least not increase the scope of the existing conflict.
This draws my attention back to the Cold War, when the 'imminent threat' of Mutual Assured Destruction was used by the leaders of the USSR and USA to justify the election of hawkish leaders and the spending of significant portions of the GDP of each country on military build ups
It was great for hawkish leaders and the people who sell weapons, but not so good for everybody else, with the USSR even being driven to financial bankruptcy
At what point do we say, "hey this isn't good for anybody but Likkud, the Mullahs and whoever is selling them weapons, maybe we should try a different approach?"
Wherever You Go, There You Are
Kendall,
Sure, and will they use magical powers to prevent the retaliation from the hundred-odd nukes that Israel has?
Hardliners in Iran and Israel both use this issue to stay in power, the longer the status quo, the worse the jerks that get into office
Wherever You Go, There You Are
Just what did you think Iran was going to do with all the money that floods into the country after sanctions are lifted? A fleet of Ice-Cream trucks? Infrastructure for the people that constantly demonstrate against the ruling regime?
No, that money is going to go into full scale nuclear weapon development. You'll see in a year or so.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Not sure that jab works here. It was an honest mistake.
There's nothing about The Affordable Care Act that mandated the insurance companies "reorganizing to meet federal standards" in a fashion that would deny you access to your favourite physician. Obamacare set new, higher standards for the minimum coverage, and the ensuing chaos of getting the most money out of the customer as possible was often achieved by reducing the "available doctors" to the smallest cheapest subset they could get away with.
It might be a fair jab, if you read through this agreement and found subtle holes that due to market forces and greed would allow a nuke to slip into existence, but now that "unannounced inspections" by the IAEA guaranteed by the plan, it's not just Obama that they need to trick.
Personally, I think it's great. I think starving out those people is part of what keeps them dangerous. My Iranian friends in the states are cultured, happy, fun people. So I see the potential for their country becoming a stabilizing element in the region when the previously-quite-appropriate sanctions can be safely lifted.
Attack with an Iranian weapon in 1.5 years.
Attack with an Iranian weapon Iran will admit to responsibility for, in four years (they want time to stockpile more than a few nukes before going on a full offensive).
Read it and weep. A thousand centrifuges in an un-killable under-mountain facility. Once sanctions are lifted they would take a long time to restart, so even IF you catch Iran cheating you can do nothing now to stop the inevitable.
If I lived in a coastal community I would move out immediately.
I hope Iron Dome can be switched to "reflect".
Nothing like some irrational fearmongering to brighten your day.
What on earth does your mental model of Iranians look like?! A nation of genocidal suicide bombers??
You know how many wars Iran has launched since 1979? Zero.
You know who does the suicide bombings? Not Shias, the dominant religion in Iran.
Yes their human rights record sucks, yes the probably want a Nuke or at least some practical Nuclear expertise to deter attacks from Israel or the US. But they're not cartoonish supervillians and I have no idea what evidence you're basing your predictions on. Healthy relations between the US and Iran is a good thing for everybody.
I stole this Sig
If "third world" Pakistan can control itself while wielding nuclear weapons, I'm sure Iran can as well. The inescapable fact of the matter is this: The United States does not "militarily" mess with nation possessing nuclear weapons. This fact alone makes the weapons highly desirable.
Didn't stop us from covertly assassinating a high-valued target with a special-ops team.
"Screw Sun, cross-platform will never work. Let's move on and steal the Java language." - Visual J++ Product Manager
They're going to get nuclear weapons if there ISN'T a deal.
If Obama would stop warning the Israelis off of bombing the shit out Iranian enrichment plants (and actively denying them airspace travel through Iraq to do it), this whole question would have been settled long ago.
Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
MAD only worked because both sides of the conflict were rational and relatively sane. Iran has no such encumbrance.
Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
So...
Iran gets to keep its full ICBM program, now defacto sanctioned OK because nothing in the "deal" mentioned it, period.
Iran gets to keep its nuclear reactors intact and also now sanctioned to operate.
Iran gets to keep ALL known and unknown weapons manufacturing and nuclear weapons facilities.
Iran get to keep upgrading its uranium to "weapons grade".
Iran does not have to move outside of the country into third-party hands existing weapons grade nuclear materials...
Iran does not have to have any snap weapons inspections (the existing "deal" requires prior notice well in advance of any inspections)
Iran gets off the US/international Terrorist List (despite still funding terrorism worldwide)
Iran does not have to admit that the United States and Israel are not its enemies and they do not have to agree to any consequences for attacking either country.
Iran gets it seized billions of dollars returned to it internationally.
Iran gets all banking and trade embargoes (including arms dealing) lifted.
Iran gets to sell its crude oil on the world market (then expect oil to quickly drop into the $20/barrel range as they flood the market with their 2 million bpd)
Iran has zero requirement to abide by any deal as there are no precisely defined consequences to when they break whatever the Obama Admin claims the "deal" is...
Iran can abruptly cancel and reverse anything it allegedly agreed to with the Obama Admin and it will STILL have all sanctions removed and the Obama Admin cannot put them back even if it wanted to do so.
Iran gets to legitimize all of its weapons programs and keep all of its WMD programs it had before plus get its economy back fully operational.
Iran does not have to remove from its charter the destruction of the United States and Isreal.
So, the US basically gets nothing it wanted, and Iran gets all it wanted and more... and the media will spin doctor the Obama Admin into the greatest diplomatic team with the highest achievable pinnacle in US diplomacy history.... Its almost as if the Obama Admin had an Iranian Adviser guiding the decisions of the president... (Valerie Jarrett)
Bibi was exactly right, this is an awful, terrible, horrendous deal. Changing nothing and canceling any and all deals on the table would be the best possible deal for US National Security... (Sometimes "the only willing move is not to play")
An Iran with nuclear weapons means that the other moslem counties (who can afford them) will all want their own nuclear weapons... and this is deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize how exactly? Welcome to M.A.D. middle-east style...
MAD only worked because both sides of the conflict were rational and relatively sane. Iran has no such encumbrance.
There are no signs the Iranian leadership is irrational or insane; far from it. Considering the snake pit of the middle east, I would say that they have played the game about as well as they possibly could. That doesn't make them nice people, but being nice doesn't get you points in this game.
So yes, they know about MAD, and they are motivated by it. It is more their opponents I'm worried about.
It was an honest mistake.
No it wasn't. BHO isn't that stupid. He said what he needed (or thought he needed) to say to get his bill passed. Anybody who followed the issue at even a casual level immediately knew that he made a promise that he couldn't keep.
I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
MAD only worked because both sides of the conflict were rational and relatively sane. Iran has no such encumbrance.
MAD worked against the likes of Joesph Stalin and Mao Zedong, the latter of whom actually believed that he could fight and win a nuclear war. The Iranians have nothing on that level of crazy paranoia. Nor do they possess the Soviet Union's technological skill or the Chinese demographic advantage. In the hierarchy of current and historical threats to Western Civilization they fall somewhere between "annoyance" and "existential". We can't casually dismiss them but we don't need to be kept awake all night worrying about them either.
I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
Actually only one side was rational and relatively sane, the other side figured that God was on their side, that they could put nukes on the oppositions borders with no blow back and when the blow back happened (tit for tat, they put nukes close to the opposition as well) the crazies came very close to starting Armageddon.
The same crazies seem to think that they can bomb anyone they feel like it and no one else better even think about it unless their religious believes might lead to the rapture.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
Saudi Arabia is also at war with Israel via proxies (and I'm not even sure who's sinking more money into it, them or Iran). But it doesn't stop US from sucking Saudi's royal dick.