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In New AI Benchmark, Computer Takes On Four Top Professional Poker Players

HughPickens.com writes: Stephen Jordan reports at the National Monitor that four of the world's greatest poker players are going into battle against a computer program that researchers are calling Claudico in the "Brains Vs. Artificial Intelligence" competition at Rivers Casino in Pittsburgh. Claudico, the first machine program to play heads-up no-limit Texas Hold'em against top human players, will play nearly 20,000 hands with each human poker player over the next two weeks. "Poker is now a benchmark for artificial intelligence research, just as chess once was. It's a game of exceeding complexity that requires a machine to make decisions based on incomplete and often misleading information, thanks to bluffing, slow play and other decoys," says Tuomas Sandholm, developer of the program. "And to win, the machine has to out-smart its human opponents." In total, that will be 1,500 hands played per day until May 8, with just one day off to allow the real-life players to rest.

An earlier version of the software called Tartanian 7 (PDF) was successful in winning the heads-up, no-limit Texas Hold'em category against other computers in July, but Sandholm says that does not necessarily mean it will be able to defeat a human in the complex game. "I think it's a 50-50 proposition," says Sandholm. "My strategy will change more so than when playing against human players," says competitor Doug Polk, widely considered the world's best player, with total live tournament earnings of more than $3.6 million. "I think there will be less hand reading so to speak, and less mind games. In some ways I think it will be nice as I can focus on playing a more pure game, and not have to worry about if he thinks that I think, etc."

89 comments

  1. Count cards by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 0

    Will the computer be prohibited from counting cards? Humans may bluff, but they cannot fake statistics.

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    1. Re:Count cards by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      Will the computer be prohibited from counting cards? Humans may bluff, but they cannot fake statistics.

      If you are not counting cards, you are playing poker wrong. This is not blackjack with multiple decks.

    2. Re:Count cards by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      In Texas Hold 'em, you see your own two cards and the up-to-5 community cards each hand, and the deck is shuffled between hands. Everyone knows what cards have been seen and what have not all the time without any card-counting skill.

    3. Re: Count cards by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Counting cards will not help

    4. Re:Count cards by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      Your replies aren't quite making this clear for some reason, but counting cards is a strategy for blackjack, not poker. In poker, the deck is shuffled after each hand, so there is nothing to count. Of course, using whatever information is available to estimate the value of the hands' of your opponents is part of the basic strategy of poker that every sane player, including this computer, uses.

    5. Re: Count cards by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 0
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    6. Re:Count cards by theskipper · · Score: 2

      I was also confused how this could work in holdem. After some googling it appears that "counting" in poker only refers to certain stud games where hands ahead of you are exposed.

      In holdem the only (?) additional info you could have over a competitor is if someone in early position folded and revealed their cards (obviously uncommon). That's info that the small blind wouldn't have had, and could be very useful if you're in late position, especially on the button. But imo that's not really "counting", just gaining info to craft your betting strategy.

      Decent answer here:
      https://answers.yahoo.com/ques...

    7. Re: Count cards by Rockoon · · Score: 3, Interesting

      No, it doesnt depend. All the cards that you have seen are visible to you for the entire hand. Card counting is about remembering statistics about cards that you have seen but are no longer visible.

      The guy that you linked to thinks that knowing how many outs you have is "card counting" -- no. you also apparently think so, which means that you cannot possibly have anything to add on this subject (and your ignorance on this subject is not a secret to you, so why are you pretending?)

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    8. Re: Count cards by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's not card counting, THAT IS HOW you play poker..

    9. Re: Count cards by greg1104 · · Score: 2

      That site doesn't understand what card counting is. When you count cards, it changes how much you bet on a hand you haven't seen yet. You increase your bet (or enter the game altogether) only when the player odds are higher than normal.

      Counting "outs", the number of cards in the desk that will improve your hand, is not what's called card counting in casino games.

    10. Re:Count cards by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      With a computer, its more than "counting cards" - a computer can remember every single card played and compute probabilities far more precisely than a human ever could. So the question is - how much real information can people *really* get from other players betting behavior? Is it really enough to offset the advantage from simply being able to fully compute the probabilities? Furthermore, if the computer model includes factoring in information revealed by bidding and uses that to obfuscate its betting behavior I would be surprised if this was really a good exercise in AI as much as it is simply creating a good model that can be computed more accurately than a human can do in their head.

    11. Re:Count cards by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      Maybe you should work out that there not all card games are blackjack. There are no revealed cards that are then hidden before a reshuffle in a texas hold em game, so there is nothing to count. Seven card stud, as one example, would be a poker game in which there are such cards - but such a small number that all the player's (well or the ones who can actually play) remember them.

    12. Re: Count cards by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This.

  2. That's Great and All by Njorthbiatr · · Score: 2

    But can it make me a sandwich?

    I think it's important to note that while we're good at making AI good at one thing, we're still a very long way from making it good at general skills.

    1. Re:That's Great and All by Marginal+Coward · · Score: 2

      But can it make me a sandwich?

      I doubt that an AI program will be able to do that anytime soon. However, it's well within the capability of today's genie:

          Human: Genie, make me a sandwich.
          (Flash! smoke dissipates to reveal sandwich in place of human)
          Genie: OK, you're a sandwich.

    2. Re:That's Great and All by NoOneInParticular · · Score: 1

      Yes it can make you a sandwich.

    3. Re:That's Great and All by AqD · · Score: 1

      It's retarded to even think there is some general skill in animals or anything.

      Either you program sandwich making directly or you program its artificial desire to eat and the ability to taste, rank, and make food out of raw materials, and give it some time to learn to make an eatable sandwich.

      It's supposed to learn and do things the way people find best. So it's just a matter of time before we deprecate most humans since we cannot improve our thought process or upgrade our brain speed.

    4. Re:That's Great and All by peragrin · · Score: 1

      Yes,

      http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/2...

      But would you trust a chef who won't eat their own food?

      --
      i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
    5. Re:That's Great and All by Opportunist · · Score: 1, Redundant

      This.

      Why would I want an AI that plays games? I want an AI that takes the boring tasks off me so I can play games!

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    6. Re:That's Great and All by CanadianMacFan · · Score: 1

      You want an AI that can make you a lot of money playing games like poker so that you can play the games you want to. Just as long as not a lot of other people have the AI.

    7. Re:That's Great and All by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      So ... you enter it into a competition where exactly that is being tested? I'd rather let that AI play in some online casinos...

      Wait... who says that's not already happening?

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    8. Re:That's Great and All by sjames · · Score: 1

      We'll have to see if sudo is installed.

    9. Re:That's Great and All by MrL0G1C · · Score: 2

      The article claims a machine is more sanitary. But think about it, food gets everywhere, is a robot going to clean the machine? or a human? It's only more sanitary if it is cleaned thoroughly and regularly otherwise bacteria and mold could run rife.

      --
      Waterfox - a Firefox fork with legacy extension support, security updates and better privacy by default.
    10. Re:That's Great and All by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      Poker is a game of chance, straight probability calculations nothing more nothing less. Beyond that it is about reading the players and that has nothing to do with poker. So I am 'ass'uming they are inserting butt plug stress monitoring probes and using that to associate stress with betting styles and to be able to assess when a players arse puckers with relation to the quality of their cards and the bets they make.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    11. Re:That's Great and All by kanweg · · Score: 1

      Given that a robot doesn't go to the bathroom, in some respects the robot is to be trusted more.

      Bert

  3. Mind games by Layzej · · Score: 4, Insightful

    not have to worry about if he thinks that I think, etc.

    I think he's wrong on this. A computer would still need to consider what his opponent thinks he holds and raise accordingly.

    1. Re:Mind games by RoverDaddy · · Score: 1

      Exactly. I think the whole point of a good AI is that it will be able to simulate these 'mind games' and take advantage of whatever data the interface gives it. Unfortunately, I see no indication that the computer will have things like cameras and microphones that could allow it to look for tells other than the opponent's play action. No indication it can talk to the players either. So not as interesting a test as it could be.

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    2. Re:Mind games by Rockoon · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I think he's wrong on this. A computer would still need to consider what his opponent thinks he holds and raise accordingly.

      Isn't necessary for chess... the top competitive chess programs (like the foss stockfish...) are not the best suited to beating humans... they still beat humans repeatedly, without mercy, game after game after game. Even the world (human) chess champion (Magnus Carlsen) admits that playing one of these engines is like repeatedly ramming your head into a wall.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    3. Re: Mind games by gordo3000 · · Score: 1

      That's because chess and poker are different. In chess all players know the complete state and the best move is to make the beat move possible, regardless of what your opponent may be thinking.

      This is why poker is harder. Chess isn't an AI problem,because it does not need to learn about the nature of your play. The engine need merely take the board and solve for the best move. But a good poker AI must find a way to infer your thinking patterns else it is just playing an odds game and will dump excess information about its own hand every betting round.

    4. Re:Mind games by CodeArtisan · · Score: 1

      not have to worry about if he thinks that I think, etc.

      I think he's wrong on this. A computer would still need to consider what his opponent thinks he holds and raise accordingly.

      Actually, in heads-up play using GTO strategy, this is not necessarily true.

    5. Re:Mind games by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Chess is not a game of limited information and intentional deception. Chess is merely a computing resource problem in comparison to detecting, creating, and taking advantage of deceptive tactics.

    6. Re: Mind games by Rockoon · · Score: 1

      In chess all players know the complete state and the best move is to make the beat move possible, regardless of what your opponent may be thinking.

      For a highly restricted definition of "best", sure...

      Chess isn't an AI problem,because it does not need to learn about the nature of your play.

      It does if it wants a maximal score in a tournament...

      You have defined "best" to mean "best against this opponent" in poker, but have arbitrarily defined "best" to not mean the same thing in chess.... there is no justification for using separate definitions here.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    7. Re: Mind games by XO · · Score: 1

      No -- There is an absolute best way to win in chess, from every possible position, and it can be calculated. The human opponent can only screw it up for themselves. (yes, I am aware that the 100% absolutely perfect chess program has not yet been written, that will win when given a time limit, but given unlimited time, a computer will always win at chess. The only reason computers have not already done this is because of time limits. It's the same reason all casinos have betting limits -- in a game with near 50-50 odds such as perfectly played Blackjack, you can do Martingale betting, and never lose .. if you have unlimited funds. The moment you hit the betting limit and lose a hand, you are now losing, and not recovering)

      In poker, particularly in No Limit Hold'em, you are typically up against up to 9 other opponents. The only way TO win is to figure out how to play each player individually, and adjust strategy based on that. (or figure out one really bad player and capitalize :-) ) If you play entirely on the odds, a good player will capitalize on that, and make it only possible for the computer to win if given a literally unlimited amount of time and money.

      --
      "Champagne for my real friends - and real pain for my sham friends!" http://ericblade.postalboard.com/
    8. Re: Mind games by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Specifically, it is very likely that in optimal chess play White wins. White moves first, white forces play in a direction where Black will be obliged to give a checkmate opportunity. If Black makes a miss-step, the checkmate happens earlier, but in other respects Black has no control over their fate.

      The other (less likely) possibility is that optimal chess is a draw, probably by repetition or stalemate which are really dull outcomes. White is unable to force Black into a position where it can achieve checkmate, and eventually either White chases Black endlessly (draw by repetition) or Black is able to force stalemate and get a draw.

      In theory there is a vanishingly small chance that optimal chess ends with Black winning, but our experience strongly suggests that good play by White can avoid all the scenarios where that happens and thus end up no worse than a draw.

    9. Re: Mind games by Rockoon · · Score: 1

      No -- There is an absolute best way to win in chess, from every possible position, and it can be calculated.

      Wrong. If every move leads to a draw in minimax, that does not mean that ever move is equal. Your thinking is extremely shallow on this subject.

      Your sort of thinking is the same reason that the top chess engines sometimes suicide against its opponent because while the top engine sees that it is lost (and thus immediately commences to delay the loss as long as possible by sacrificing every piece that it can) its opponent does not see it.

      Its straight up suicide, and now you please explain how straight up suicide is "best" play.

      Chess rating websites like CCRL is chock-full of games where the losing engine saw that it was losing while its opponent did not (the engine evals are in the pgn files), and then the losing engine proceeded to force the loss. Made sure that it happened. Guaranteed it. Saw to it that its opponent would eventually and with certainty find a win.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    10. Re: Mind games by Rockoon · · Score: 2

      The subject of "optimal play" is always in terms of "an optimal opponent"

      This doesnt define what the "best move" is if at least one player is not one of these "optimal players."

      Here then is the problem: The grandparant learned about minimax and now think that he is an expert on chess engines, but hasn't actually put enough thought into it to even pretend to be an expert. He injects long series of assumptions into his arguments in order to reinforce his reliance on knowing what minimax is as being the focal point of his supposed expertise.

      The fact continues to be that the "best move" is not defined by minimax. The best move is defined by all the same criteria that poker theorists rely on: The opponents knowledge, tendencies, etc...

      In poker if both players are "optimal" then the sum of the game is $0.00, and the sum of the two different positions in heads up player are exactly opposite each other. Ergo "optimal" in poker has all the same characteristics that it does in chess so why then do we allow ourselves to use one definition of "best" in poker (happily declaring "because psychology!") while arbitrarily assign "only optimal is best" (happily declaring "fuck psychology!") in chess?

      We only do so if we are naively trying to justify a belief that hasnt any other justification. You think the top human chess players arent psyching each other out? arent bluffing? then you havent been paying attention.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
  4. AI has great chances by Kartu · · Score: 1

    Poker games take time (hours), people grow tired, computers don't.
    People struggle at memorizing chances, taking shortcuts, computers have exact picture talking into account every single bit.

    All one needs is behavior that is random enough, for human players not to guess if computer is bluffing.

    Then, of course, there is luck factor, so results will fluctuate quite a bit.

    1. Re:AI has great chances by Paradise+Pete · · Score: 1

      Poker games take time (hours), people grow tired, computers don't.

      This is a good point. Computers have no emotion, either. Even the best human players are affected to some small degree by their emotions, especially when they are tired.

      People struggle at memorizing chances, taking shortcuts, computers have exact picture talking into account every single bit.

      Not much of an issue in Hold 'em. Good players can handle those odds with little effort.

      All one needs is behavior that is random enough, for human players not to guess if computer is bluffing.

      You of course don't want the human to be able to guess when the computer is bluffing, but it's certainly not "all one needs." Not by a long shot.

      Then, of course, there is luck factor, so results will fluctuate quite a bit.

      Yes. They'll be playing 1500 hands per day, but in no limit hold 'em the outcome often comes down to a handful of key hands.

    2. Re:AI has great chances by greg1104 · · Score: 1

      People getting emotional isn't always an advantage for the computer; it's part of the complexity of playing against them. Some people will rampage where their aggressiveness ramps up after losing a hand due to luck (a bad beat). Some will bet less aggressively because they're stinging from the loss and worried about their stake. You can't just model the human opponent's patterns and expect them to be consistent.

    3. Re:AI has great chances by Rockoon · · Score: 2

      People struggle at memorizing chances, taking shortcuts, computers have exact picture talking into account every single bit.

      Memorizing chances isn't very important in no-limit. A rough estimate is all you need because other factors will completely dominate whatever error exists in your estimate. When the implied odds can vary between ~1:1 and 100:1, the second or third digit of your estimate of the chances of making a winning hand (for instance, ~2.5:1 against making a flush) is drowned out.

      In car analogy terms, its like worrying about if insurance will cover the broken taillight after your car has been t-boned at an intersection by another car going 60 mph. Yeah, it would be nice if the insurance will replace that taillight... but its more important that they will cover the hospital bills

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    4. Re:AI has great chances by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I disagree. Humans have the advantage as computers can't legally keep the money they win.

    5. Re:AI has great chances by Kjella · · Score: 2

      It's my impression that pro players often get amateur players through bet sizing, if your call/fold response doesn't match the equity of your hand they'll pretty easily see that they can milk you for value or push you into folding. Or that the amateurs are bad at getting the maximum value out of their good hands because they give the pros easy call/fold odds. Of course there's a lot more to bet sizing than your own two cards, but you can't bluff properly without having a pretty good clue about what you represent having and making credible bets as if you had those cards. Pros are pretty good at smelling stories that don't make sense where you're betting on the turn/river like you have cards that you'd never play that way preflop/on the flop because they're usually a bluff. Or a very well disguised hand, but they'll sure test if you're capable of that.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
  5. Less Mind Games? by tomhath · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I think there will be less hand reading so to speak, and less mind games.

    Isn't that what makes the game so interesting? Any good card game involves messing with your opponent's head.

    1. Re:Less Mind Games? by houghi · · Score: 1

      It might be interesting, but that does not mean it is better if you want to win.Many do play not because it is interesting, but because the result of their game makes them money.

      And if a boring game makes them more money, that is what they are willing to play.

      The goal is to make money; not to play.

      --
      Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
  6. A Strange Game by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The only winning move is not to play.

    1. Re:A Strange Game by GuB-42 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      In fact poker has rules (antes, blinds) where the whole point is to make not playing a losing move.
      In a global thermonuclear war, it would be like making unused bombs self detonate in one's country after some time.

  7. Texas Hold'em is not complex by ichabod801 · · Score: 3, Informative

    It's poker that's dumb enough to be on TV. If they want a real challenge they should play seven stud.

    1. Re:Texas Hold'em is not complex by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Jesus Christ you are a nitwit. It's not the game that's the challenge, its beating your opponent, in this case, some of the best players in the world.

      God damn this place has gone downhill. Go away, 3,000,000+ ID boy.

  8. Why poker isnt real by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Poker is bullshit.

    Try playing without looking at your cards. Suddenly you've taken the human element away from the other player and it becomes a game of classic war. Did my random pile of cards beat his random pile of cards? You will never win but im pretty sure you wont lose either.

    Why? Because poker is bullshit random flop of the cards and people have turned it into a game they think requires skill.

    1. Re: Why poker isnt real by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Bridge is a much more fun game of genuine skill over random luck, especially duplicate bridge. Computers are also great at bridge. The AI test is not of the cleverness of the player but the ability to cope with randomness, lack of information, and epistemologically ugly scenarios--exactly what make poker a lesser man's game. The degree of logic and memory and discipline required for bridge ironically make it less a test for computers.

    2. Re:Why poker isnt real by belthize · · Score: 1

      Can I play you for money. Whatever stakes you want (please be a billionaire, please be a billionaire)

  9. But by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Poker is at least as much about psychology (reading your opponents' body language) as about anything else. You cannot do that to a computer program. This is not a true test of AI.

    1. Re:But by RoverDaddy · · Score: 1

      Why can't a computer program do this? We have these inventions called 'cameras' and 'microphones' to supply the data. We have facial recognition software today. We have speech recognition software today. Emotion recognition software will exist someday.

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  10. How good of an idea is this? by cold+fjord · · Score: 0

    Teaching computers to beat humans at bluffing, decoying, and no doubt (now or in time) lying? Is that what we want AI to be capable of? I'm not sure that is a good idea, and the code to do that should never be among the "standard includes". I understand the utility of it in dealing with humans, but still ...

    --
    much of left-wing thought is a kind of playing with fire by people who don't even know that fire is hot - George Orwell
    1. Re:How good of an idea is this? by Paradise+Pete · · Score: 1

      It's not about lying or decoying. It's about making the best decisions. You want AI that's capable of making good decisions even when the information is incomplete.

    2. Re:How good of an idea is this? by cold+fjord · · Score: 1

      The concern isn't about making good decisions, but about the behavior and use of the system's capabilities and emergent properties.

      --
      much of left-wing thought is a kind of playing with fire by people who don't even know that fire is hot - George Orwell
    3. Re:How good of an idea is this? by Rockoon · · Score: 1

      You want AI that's capable of making good decisions even when the information is incomplete.

      ...and intentionally injected with misinformation...

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    4. Re:How good of an idea is this? by RoverDaddy · · Score: 1

      I'm not scared. I think we are so far from understanding 'real intelligence' that the possibility of developing AI with significant emergent properties in my lifetime is practically nil.

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  11. Easily by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This guy here can make a sandwich and many other things that humans can do for about $4/hour.

  12. World's best? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    ... says competitor Doug Polk, widely considered the world's best player...

    What, are you kidding me? Bluff has him ranked as number 36. That's pretty good, but a far cry from "widely considered the world's best."

    1. Re:World's best? by justthinkit · · Score: 1

      And it is not as if Bluff is the best ranking place either. Most of the names there I've never even heard of. The Magician isn't even listed on page 1 (top 50), yet in a single tournament he won 4 times what Polk has won over an entire career. Phil Ivey & Huck Seed are also missing from page one, in part because they are big cash game players.

      I imagine Polk is some very average player who got roped into this project and so, to give the project credibility, they trump him up into the stratosphere.

      --
      I come here for the love
    2. Re: World's best? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Are you high? Polk plays some of the highest limits available.

    3. Re: World's best? by justthinkit · · Score: 1

      Oh surely.

      Doug Polk's Global Poker Index ranking:

      Ranking Position National rank Total score Highest

      GPI rank #164 for 1 weeks #85 1,942.19 pts #77

      PoY 2015 rank #1228 for 1 weeks #471 254.16 pts #353

      --
      I come here for the love
    4. Re: World's best? by XO · · Score: 1

      I paid attention pretty thoroughly to offline poker, from '02 to about '10... and I've only ever heard of him as a guy that writes articles for Bluff. He's certainly not a name anyone I know would say is #1, when there's players out there who churn through (lose-win) more than this guy has made in his entire life, on a weekly basis.

      --
      "Champagne for my real friends - and real pain for my sham friends!" http://ericblade.postalboard.com/
  13. What about Mahjong? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'd like to see a Mahjong playing robot. Preferably with big tits and no underwear.

  14. Tell by nospam007 · · Score: 1

    Unfortunately the AI has a tell, his hard-disk lights flash when he's bluffing.

    1. Re:Tell by RoverDaddy · · Score: 1

      That's what he wants you to think.

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  15. Heads-up No Limit cash game, not tournaments by grimJester · · Score: 2

    Amusingly, Bluff magazine has a ranking of the best HUNL players where he's number one. But he's written the list himself :)

    He really is among the best heads up no limit players though.

  16. If someone cheats ... by PPH · · Score: 1

    ... will the AI pul out its six-shooter?

    --
    Have gnu, will travel.
  17. Lies and liars by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There a lies (bluffing), damned liars (poker players), and then there are statistics and probability (so-called AI). A good neural network will learn from the patterns of the opposition, and then get pwnd when the opposition changes tactics (human adaptive algorithms). Anyway, this will be interesting to observe! :-)

  18. How about an AI benchmark by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    in a game of dice? Surely there must be some way of winning that with an AI...

  19. Crappy, sensationalist reporting. by bradley13 · · Score: 5, Informative

    TFS refers to TFA which refers to another TFA, and all of them are pathetically written. Here's a link at CMU discussing the competition. This is the second link in TFS, but it's not clear that all of the other links in the first paragraph are just trash.

    In any case, a couple of points and/or musings:

    • 1500 hands per day, 6 days per week, for two weeks running. I only play at a hobby level, but...isn't that a whopping lot to expect of the human players? Any serious players out there who can comment?
    • One of the pros expects fewer "mind games". But mind games are part of the game - if this is a decent AI, shouldn't he be in for more mind games?
    • The hands are "prepared". On the one hand, this bothers me, because we must assume that the researchers do not (even subconsciously) select hands that their AI can win. On the other hand, the reason for the preparation (only discussed in the CMU article - all of the "journalists" failed to understand this point) is so that they can play duplicate, in support of better scientific results.

    As a final note: may I please encourage submitters and/or our illustrious editors to not fluff up submissions with links to crappy articles that miss most of the important points? Just the source link would have been enough - it's a good article with real information written in actual English.

    --
    Enjoy life! This is not a dress rehearsal.
    1. Re:Crappy, sensationalist reporting. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      1500 hands a day is ridiculous unless they are speeding through games without much thinking. Assuming 1 minute to go through a hand, that's 25 hours of nonstop playing not. This assumes hands includes changes of hands in the middle of games and betting antes/calls are finished within that minute.

    2. Re:Crappy, sensationalist reporting. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      1500 hands per day is 150 hands per hour with a 10 hour day. A Vegas casino poker table might do 30+ hands per hour. A single online table might do 40+ hands per hour (no need to "shuffle" cards in a computer, and less chit-chat). But the trick is that professional online players run multiple simultaneous tables to increase their income. So for someone who can handle four 40+ hand per hour tables, 150 hands per hour against a machine might be OK.

    3. Re:Crappy, sensationalist reporting. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > One of the pros expects fewer "mind games". But mind games are part of the game - if this is a decent AI, shouldn't he be in for more mind games?

      Nope - No tells

    4. Re:Crappy, sensationalist reporting. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is not that unreasonable. In an online, heads-up game, you can see 80-100 hands an hour. It is common for the top internet pros to play between 2-4 heads up tables at the same time.

    5. Re:Crappy, sensationalist reporting. by XO · · Score: 1

      Heads-up or even 4-handed, you're going to clear 100 hands an hour on a single table.

      --
      "Champagne for my real friends - and real pain for my sham friends!" http://ericblade.postalboard.com/
    6. Re:Crappy, sensationalist reporting. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Strictly speaking, what is removed from the game is "physical reads". For example an amateur might visibly sweat and keep adjusting their tie whenever trying to bluff and that's a "physical read" once you notice it. If they go all in after a third spade appears on the river, you can stare at them and if they are sweating and adjusting their tie it's very likely they're bluffing so you should call. A pro might do something that seems to offer a "physical read" but it turns out that was just part of their strategy, a mind game.

      But there are other tells. For example, maybe you always go "all in" when you have better than a straight. So if you raise me (but not all in) when the only good hand you could plausibly have made is a full house or better, then I know you're bluffing - because if you really had those hands you'd go all in, and you didn't. The machine is still able to have, and to observe, such tells. A really dumb example might be a player who always makes odd bets when semi-bluffing, as some sort of aid to their memory. After you notice they do this, you can see that they've just made an odd bet and know it's a semi-bluff. For example, maybe at the turn they have a draw with plenty of outs, but no made hand. If you've got a decent made hand you should maybe raise to try to force them out without risking them making their outs.

  20. to infinity ... and beyond by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    2017 the fusion generators come online (think I'm joking? http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html )

    2022 ai replaces all common jobs money is abolished

    2025 the replicators come on line and we live in a postindustrial phase

    the singularity is coming

  21. 2500 hands/week is speed poker by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    > will play nearly 20,000 hands with each human poker player over the next two weeks.

    elsewhere it says there are 4 participants, so that is 2500 hands per player week -- and that is quite a bit faster than normal human play, even at this level, even heads-up.

  22. My guess. by TsuruchiBrian · · Score: 1

    I would guess that the game will just end up being more random. Humans are bad at being random number generators, so that opens the window for psychological strategies. A computer can be a pretty near perfect random number generator, and therefore is immune to the psychological aspect of the game. It could try to exploit this weakness in the human players through some kind of psychological heuristic algorithm, but I think that also opens the door to it being tricked by those same human players especially if they successfully guess what strategy the AI is using. It may just be better to go by the numbers.

  23. Online poker .com would pay BIG by Billly+Gates · · Score: 1

    This would be very profitable. If I were an evil asshole with no ethics I would love to buy or rent such software out and put in a fake virtual player for each session. No way I would ever lose money unless through very odd anomalies. Oh hell who am I kidding this is how half of Las Vegas works where they hire statisticians to favor the house as much as possible.

    You are dumb to ever think you can win and are just smarter than the other guys

    1. Re:Online poker .com would pay BIG by XO · · Score: 1

      ... this shows how little you understand of poker. Primarily, that poker is a game played between people, and it does not involve the house. The house makes some money for providing the service of dealing the cards, but it is not involved in the game of poker.

      Just playing the odds is an extremely exploitable strategy.

      --
      "Champagne for my real friends - and real pain for my sham friends!" http://ericblade.postalboard.com/
  24. One thing a computer opponent won't do... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...is call you out for winning a hand by "playing wrong" and insisting that if you would just play correctly, it wouldn't be losing.

  25. Doesn' t the computer have a huge advantage? by Locke2005 · · Score: 1

    The computer can count cards perfectly and brute force calculate the odds of each possible hand. The computer has no "tell"; but on the other hand, it probably can't read any human tells either. Over enough hands, the computer is always going to come out ahead, just by better calculation of probabilities. Artificial Intelligence isn't really required to give it an advantage, and other than being able to read the faces and tells of opponents, I'm not sure AI is even useful for poker. Of course, the software is probably also trying to use past bluffing history to predict when opponents are bluffing, giving this somewhat of the flavor of the Rock, Paper, Scissors programming competition (my quick and dirty algorithm sucked at that).

    --
    I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
    1. Re:Doesn' t the computer have a huge advantage? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If the computer plays entirely on probabilities, every time it doesn't raise, you go all in, it folds.

      That's where the intelligence begins. If the AI merely plays the probabilities, then anyone can out-smart it simply by figuring out when it doesn't have the best possible hand, and betting more money than would be a correct call. In other words -- the optimal way to beat the most basic of computer programs is to simply play in a fashion that you would appear to a regular player as a reckless maniac. There's no point in ever trying to get the computer to make bad calls, because it will always make bad folds. Hell, a computer would probably make more money by just calling every time it had a greater than 40% chance of winning.. assuming that the computer had an unlimited amount of money at it's disposal. Without intelligence qualities to it, the optimal play would probably not be playing the probabilities 100%, because real players would quickly figure it out and exploit it.

      That's what we do with people who just play math. We use their math against them. We make terrible bets against them, and end up walking away with their money, all the while being called donkeys and idiots, because they don't understand anything beyond probability, and often don't even consider what other players are holding. Put one computer against 100 players in a series of 100 tournaments, playing probabilities, and it would probably have a winning record. Put one computer against 10 players playing LIMIT hold'em, and it will probably make a tiny profit.

      As said in a thread above, card counting is a blackjack skill, not a poker skill, and is completely irrelevant. Other than the 2 cards that each player is holding, everyone can see the shared cards in hold'em. There's nothing to count. It doesn't even kind of work in the same sort of way at all, other than that they both use decks of cards.

      The computer can easily keep track of everything that it has seen over hundreds or thousands of hands, though. It can deduce information about how each of the players play, if it can identify them. And then it can apply strategy based on math known about the player. That's a little bit harder, but online hold'em players turned it into an art-form years ago -- people can play 100+ games simultaneously and still come out winners, by having the computer keep track of a bunch of stats, and feeding them a HU display of various percentages of how players react in given situations. These heads-up-displays have quite a lot of headroom to go, though. A lot more information can be made available, especially if the computer is able to see the current hand in progress, which most heads-up displays are NOT able to (not a software problem, any poker site figures out you have a HUD that is smart enough to analyze information about the current hand in progress is going to ban you no questions asked, no money back).. but since that will of course be a requirement for the computer that is playing the game... Things like this have a lot of progress to be made.

      But it's still not really intelligence. It's throwing pre-developed strategies into a mix of statistics. I guess that's what most current "AI"s are, though. Something like this, will be able to provide heads-up display programmers a lot more data, which will provide truly thinking players the ability to determine what data is useful, and then they can generate better strategies. But for now, truly good human players are going to absolutely destroy the machine as soon as they get a handle on it's strategy. If the machine can figure out that it's strategy has been broken, rather than it just getting unlucky, and change to some other strategy, then maybe it'll have a chance.

    2. Re:Doesn' t the computer have a huge advantage? by Ihlosi · · Score: 1
      The computer has no "tell"; but on the other hand, it probably can't read any human tells either.

      I'm sure you could run a side-channel attack on the computer for tells, and I'm also sure the computer could be fitted with a camera and appropriate algorithms to read your heart rate, blood perfusion rate, respiration rate, rate of sweat production, etc, for information about your general level of anxiety, surprise, etc.

    3. Re:Doesn' t the computer have a huge advantage? by XO · · Score: 1

      And even then, all you can do is throw models at it and strategies to attempt to use on those models.

      --
      "Champagne for my real friends - and real pain for my sham friends!" http://ericblade.postalboard.com/
  26. Yeah whatever by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Poker is 90% luck and 10% skill..