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Can Riots Be Predicted By Social Media?
sciencehabit writes: The broken glass and burned wreckage are still being cleared in the wake of the riots that convulsed Baltimore's streets on 27 April. The final trigger of the unrest was the funeral of a 25-year-old African-American man who had died in police custody, but observers point to many other root causes, from income inequality to racial discrimination. But for a few researchers who are studying Baltimore's unrest, the question is not the ultimate causes of the riot but its mechanism: How do such riots self-organize and spread? One of those researchers, Dan Braha, a social scientist at the New England Complex Systems Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, has been collecting data from Twitter that spans the riot from buildup to aftermath, part of a larger study of social media and social unrest around the world. He spoke to Science about how researchers are helping to predict the riots of the future.
Monitoring, monitoring, monitoring. Pretty soon you won't be able to plan a protest without being added to a dozen watchlists as a dangerous subversive.
Is to ban Twitter and Facebook?
Is it really a prediction when someone tells you where and when they are going to riot ahead of time?
So says TWP
HBI's Law: Frequency of calling others Nazis is directly correlated with the likelihood of the accuser being Communist.
I wonder what the cause of those riots are....
http://chimpmania.com/forum/images/imported/2013/08/culturaldiversityatitsfinest_c_1600913-1.jpg
Black "hooligans" (different from black people) will riot if their home team wins the championship, or if a black person is shot by a white cop, regardless of context or the facts. The shooting of Michael Brown is a great example. His "parents" only gave a shit about him after he was shot and all the SJWs started to riot on social media. This creates a frenzy for the thieves and crazy folk to take advantage of the "outnumbering public" hence the clashes with police. The recent Baltimore shooting is a little bit different. That cop was cold blooded, a sociopath or some flavor. Regardless, the libtard SJWs (this term deserve its fair time slice occasionally mods, please) get all riled up and clash with police. The fundamental problem I see is that all those "oppressed" "protected classes" of people in America are just getting their toes wet compared to other tragedies in other more wild and free parts of the globe. But alas, instead of making for themselves they get the government to declare it legal to take money from society's producers. It every case from Communist Russia to the $22+ billion in debt Liberal wasteland of Detroit. In all cases, liberalism fails. That is all
Considering most riots these days are organized on social media, you should be able to "predict" them.
The final trigger of the unrest was the funeral of a 25-year-old African-American man who had died in police custody, but observers point to many other root causes, from income inequality to racial discrimination.
I think some "triggers/root causes" are (deliberately) left out from this "/." summary...
Antisthenes: "Wisdom begins by examining the words/names." - excuse my English, i am (slightly...) better with my Greek!
Seriously, the unrest is brewing in our towns. The powder keg is filled to the brim, all it takes is a spark, and any kind will do, to blow it up. You're getting close to a critical mass of people who are severely unhappy with how things are going, the only thing missing is a focal point for this anger. As soon as a justification is found to vent that anger, you have a riot.
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
Ask Harry Seldon!
Problem solved!
You are an ignorant idiot, not just using tabs for identation, but also racist!
This riot started with a press release from the Baltimore Police Department:
According to the Baltimore Sun, a call to "purge"—a reference to the 2013 dystopian film in which all crime is made legal for one night—circulated on social media among school-aged Baltimoreans that morning. The rumored plan—which was not traced to any specific person or group—was to assemble at the Mondawmin Mall at 3 p.m. and proceed down Pennsylvania Avenue toward downtown Baltimore. The Baltimore Police Department, which was aware of the "purge" call, prepared for the worst. Shortly before noon, the department issued a statement saying it had "received credible information that members of various gangshave entered into a partnership to 'take-out' law enforcement officers." ...
Meghann Harris, a teacher at a nearby school, described on Facebook what happened:
Police were forcing busses to stop and unload all their passengers. Then, [Frederick Douglass High School] students, in huge herds, were trying to leave on various busses but couldn't catch any because they were all shut down. No kids were yet around except about 20, who looked like they were waiting for police to do something. The cops, on the other hand, were in full riot gear, marching toward any small social clique of studentsIt looked as if there were hundreds of cops.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/04/how-baltimore-riots-began-mondawmin-purge
Officer at computer console: "Sir, there seems to be a lot of Twitter traffic about a gathering at 6:30pm by the river!"
Supervisor: "Damned pinko commie terrorists! Deploy the usual - tear gas, sound cannon, fire hoses, horses, flamethrowers, yadee yadee.. Tell the boys to avoid breaking any backs if possible, the boys in Baltimore are having a hard time of it right now and we don't need that noise."
Officer at computer console: "Roger that!"
Meanwhile, down by the river...
Left MS Windows for Linux Mint and never looked back!
Vote for Bernie in 2016!
I'm terribly sorry that there's poverty. But:
I grew up on the wrong side of the tracks. I mean, pretty seriously on the wrong side of the tracks.
I thought speaking English was a good idea, so I learned how to speak, and how to write.
I thought education was important, so I learned to read and even where teachers were inadequate, I taught myself.
I thought that nobody owed me a life but I had to make it for myself.
It's really that simple.
will post something interesting for once?
What's funny about your comment is that you and the asshole that modded your post up are so ignorant on the topic that you're blissfully unaware of your contribution to the problem you're criticizing.
"I like to lick butts!" by MobileTatsu-NJG (#32700246) (Score:5, Informative)
do
{
blather_racistly();
} while (AC === "racist bigot");
Not to mention the assignment rather than equality check in the if clause, and the fact that the whole statement is redundant since the value of riot is simply the value of the "i": basically, if "i" want to riot, I will.
Fuck all the mods who modded this insightful. Go fucking kill yourself you ignorant pricks.
Black people like to riot and loot AND THEY'RE NOT ASHAMED OF IT. And I don't judge them. I like rioting too, I just never find my fellow white neighbors ever rioting. I'm not the one to start, but I'd totally join in with the right momentum. So please stop acting like such an oversensitive child and shouting names at the mods. If you ever said something useful, perhaps you could shut up and just use your own damn mod points.
Kinda thought it was part of the joke - as the riot happens regardless of color its actually pretty politically correct. The racist compiler warns about that, though (are you sure you want to be painted black?).
Its sad How all these protests are over people that were criminals to start with. Most recent one, the guy was charged with distribution of narcotics 11 times since 2007, and least 7 other crimes. Brown wasn't much different, robbed a store then assaulted a cop in his cruiser. Pretty sad how they protest of a Criminal's death. https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
I'm pretty sure the scumbag gangbangers and crackheads looting those stores were the ones doing all the poking in those neighborhoods. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, and sometimes the guy looting your store is just a fucking scumbag thief.
If someone rapes your wife, you don't blame it on society's ills. You blame in on the piece of shit that did it.
What's funny is how much you don't realize they don't fucking care
Lets see an Example!
In Brazil, the governor of Parana State, government take the money from the people and give to Judiciary, to help the judges have a lot of privileges and stewardships. A Judge in the beginning of career , get a salary of 20 teachers. Judges receive housing assistance, even they have houses. The value is 2 times a salary of an teacher. All this stewardships, take a price, and the State go Bankrupt. To save state finances, governor have a great idea of to get pension fund of the state public workers.
At same time, many deputies and govern allies are involved in corruption and tax fraud. Judges, left they free.
To pass the vote, government prohibits people from going to parliament and throws bombs on teachers.
SO PREDICTABLE! SEE THE VIDEO:
http://revolution-news.com/bra... a>
Yes, they very noisily don't care.
"I like to lick butts!" by MobileTatsu-NJG (#32700246) (Score:5, Informative)
What's the point of predicting riots if all we're going to do is stand around and give people "space to destroy" when they do riot?
These aren't thunderstorms...
The retards knew the whole story before acting their I.Q. and demonstrating or rioting. They think it's another poor underprivileged non-white on the way to bible study, when in fact it's another drug selling thug that inflicted his own wounds. I foresee this happening more and more, idiots trying to martyr themselves to make cops look bad. I hope every demonstrator gets arrested for being stupid. The news networks and people demonstrating are playing this as another racist issue, when it's really the idiots (and his parents) fault.
Flash mobs are organized on social media... if you do a riot the same way then... sure, if you monitor the whole fucking internet like skynet or something then you might be able to predict a riot.
However, here is a better idea... when a riot starts... How about you actually send the actual police to the actual disturbance and stop it before it gets completely out of control.
It is really not that hard. You get the police out there with a megaphone and you say "you have a right to peacefully protest so long as you do not obstruct traffic or businesses. Be peaceful and respectful of the community and you are welcome here. If however there is vandalism, intimidation, or other illegal activity, the police will break the up the crowd by any means. You have been warned."
Then have the police there with tear gas and gas masks and a meat wagon. If the protest is peaceful like an MLK protest, then leave them alone because they're not hurting anyone. If however they pull a Rodney King, Katrina, Frugison, Baltimore type riot... then you say over the megaphone "We are not dispursing the crowd as members of the crowd have begun vandalizing property etc. Leave the area if you do not live here and if you do live here then go home. You have five minutes to dispurse"
Anyone that doesn't want to choke on tear gas is going to leave right then and there. Those that remain get to eat tear gas. And while they're on all fours vomiting up their breakfast, the police can come in with gas masks, zip tie everyone that decided to stay, and cart them all away in the meat wagons.
No one gets hurt. Property damage is kept to a minimum. Everyone is warned of what is going to happen before it happens. No one is subjected to the tear gas without being given an option to not be hit with tear gas. And the riot is stopped cold.
The looting and lawlessness that is typical of riots happens because there is a break down in order. You do not solve that problem by backing off and letting the whole area turn into Mad Max. You stop it by going in there and laying down the law.
I am NOT advocating brutality or infringing anyone's rights. You do not have a right to riot any more then one person all by himself doesn't have the right to walk around throwing bricks through windows. You don't inherent rights in a mob that you don't have by yourself. If you don't have the right to tip cars over whenever you feel like it then you don't have the right to do it in a mob simply because a lot of people are doing it with you.
The gas is largely harmless. We subject our own soldiers to tear gas in basic training. If it actually caused any lasting harm to anyone then we wouldn't do that. The gas will also break up all but the most die hard members of the riot. Ideally you want as many people to leave the area on their own without requiring the police to deal with each individual person.
That leaves the core of the riot. And those people tend to have long criminal records, be mostly interested in exploiting the chaos to steal, and are generally people that society rarely suffers from having in jail.
I was in Los Angeles during the King riots. And the same stupid thing happened in LA that happened in Baltimore. You do NOT give the riot space or assume that it will just burn itself out if you leave it alone. It is as likely to turn into the Lord of the Flies in there as anything else. They're more likely to eat each other than they are to calm down on their own.
What is so sad is that modern police in the 21st century are failing to do something that the average city guard throughout history had no trouble handling.
It isn't rocket science. Let the police do their jobs and the riot will be over before it starts.
I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
if(i=black)
Well good job, this will always equal true. Try "==" next time you fucking moron.
Watching from the outside, it sure seems so. I wonder why, though? It couldn't possibly be because the country refused to give up racism when offered the carrot of a dream, so now it gets the stick of fire and brimstone, now could it?
Humanity seems utterly unable to learn tgat injustices are weaknesses that lead to destruction yet the universe seems just as unable to stop hammering the lesson home. Unmovable object of human stubborn evil meets the unstoppable force of obvious consequences. We haven't met any aliens because they're addicted to, mesmerized by and terrified of the epic farce that's human history. Assuming they're even alive anymore - not helping when able inserts them right back into the same pattern, after all, most likely by opening old scars.
We should really make ethics a branch of national defence, since most problems and threats originate from someone racking up bad karma in the name of short-term benefit.
Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.
Instead of trying to predict riots, wouldn't it be better to prevent them in the first place? Putting effort into righting the injustices that cause the riot would be the best thing for everybody.
Pope John XXIII said "If you want peace, work for justice." Seems to be some wisdom there.
Baltimore represents the best of urban decay. Sure there's new developments, the Harbor etc. but most of Baltimore resembles Detroit. If you take the plight of people living in that squalor and add a few professional malcontents and any reason, you can have a riot. Unfortunately Baltimore's leadership also failed, miserably. The Mayor should resign because from all news accounts and her public statements she didn't sufficiently protect the neighborhoods and businesses becoming trashed in the name of "racial justice."
Harrison's Postulate - "For every action there is an equal and opposite criticism"
I would agree that our so-called "News" blows some things out of proportion. At the same time I lived most of my life near Detroit and more recently in CA (SF Area). I have friends and family in most Southern states. There are absolutely pockets where the economy is bad enough that I'd agree with GP about the powder keg waiting for a spark. Even in the SF Bay area, I wonder how much it would take to see riots. Here there are the people with money, and those those without.
Measurements on just about everything prove that the Middle Class is becoming an endangered species. The lack of a middle class will lead to revolts at some point, history is pretty clear on that. The Lords with money are generally given plenty of room to be Lords as long as the subjects have a trajectory upward. When all avenues are closed and your option is to be a peasant, Lords tend to lose their heads.
You are claiming that media plays up incidents of protest, which I agree with. We also know that they downplay incidents of protest, distort protests, and in some cases just ignore the best informed protests. It happens to work both ways, depending on who benefits. Racial tensions keep the peasants bickering with each other. Political corruption does not. Guess which gets air time?
-The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.
It might be easier to predict them based on poor governments, squalor, and abuses of power. Ever played any city simulation game? pretty easy to tell when you've screwed up so bad the masses are about to riot.
these moronic, undereducated, clueless 'researchers' like this one are getting on my nerves.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
If so.. yes.
Look- I donate to the police survivors fund each year, but the drug war, militarization of police, and grossly racially imbalanced police forces lead to these events.
Freddie Gray's record was minor drug infractions which wouldn't even be a problem in three states any more.
Once he was arrested the first time, he had no hope of ever getting a good job with an arrest record. Once he had a conviction, it was over.
She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
if(i=black)
{
assume_suspect_guilty_by_default = true;
use_excess_or_lethal_force_on_suspect = true;
riot = true;
}
else
{
assume_suspect_guitly_by_default = false;
use_excess_or_lethal_force_on_suspect = false;
riot = false;
}
That about sums it up
FTFY.
Also, white people have a strong tendency to riot for no good reason whatsoever (e.g. the 2011 Stanley Cup riots in Vancouver).
Those aren't white people. They're Canadians.
The article is not about *stopping* riots.... it's about *predicting* them, so you know where to set up the news vans, and you know where to go to be on camera so you can demonstrate that you are a "community leader".
If you actually *stopped* the riots, it'd be a hell of a slow news day, and you'd have to run human interest stories about the baby ducks who've infested some guys swimming pool, or stories about cats.
They tend to be rather quickly destroyed by criminals so that there's no admissible record of their criminal activities.
Why should we believe you've got it as bad as people who are rioting?
Mod parent up.
People stupid enough to riot definitely have it worse off than people smart enough to not riot. Because they're not only in poverty, they are also stupid.
Flash mobs are organized on social media... if you do a riot the same way then...
Sorry, that's not a "riot". If you organize it in a premeditated fashion, it's called "insurrection".
Or it could be that the social media promotes riots? So its not really predicting anything if they cause it.
Look at it this way. Imagine if every time one of your users either introduced a vulnerability to the network, you were punched in the face. If the vulnerability were exploited, you would be punched twice. The user, on the other hand, would have to take an online 30-minute class to teach them about vulnerabilities. It would be the same class each time they introduced one, even thought it clearly had no effect. Now imagine that you were allowed to walk the user to the class, and punch them for resisting... How many times would you have to get punched in the face before you started taking it out on them? Would that number change if you knew they were intentionally introducing vulnerabilities so they could watch you get punched in the face?
Now that we understand what motivates and causes such mob activities we can flood the networks the 'right kind' of messages and perform 'traffic shapping' of the social groups. ( welcome to a Brave New World !! ) .
And if I did, I'd be taking out the predations of some punch-happy psycho on innocent people because I was too scared to confront the real culprit. That might make me a fine citizen for such bastions of greatness as North Korea or East Germany, but in the West, it just makes me a collaborator - a traitor to myself, my country, and humanity.
It's one thing to be a coward, it's another to internalize a lie and start actively serving it. At that point you've basically joined a cult, and all your perceptions get twisted by being filtered through its dogma; and because of such induced insanity, joining a cult sometimes ends very, very badly. As we have seen numerous times in the recent past.
Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.
The murder of Freddie Grey wasn't all that unusual an occurrence, sadly.
It's too early to declare Freddie Gray a murder. There are multiple investigations underway and, given the high profile and scrutiny this case now has, I expect those investigations to provide some truthful answers and not standard police boilerplate. Let's wait for some facts before we start making assumptions like murder.
A brother of mine worked on a project for the military, they monitored a 'statistically full' twitter feed (you need more than a T1 to get a full feed, theirs was only 1 in every 20 or 100 messages), and did detect several 'large public events' that happened well before the news reported on it even on a 7x24 new cycle. The tools allow to select on keywords or #tags that are getting the largest exposure and will let you know what geographic area they are coming from. It was fast, accurate, and inexpensive given the data being monitored. Downside is it is available to anyone, with more accurate data for those willing to pay for it. The bad thing (or good) is anyone can get it, if you have the hutspa to deal with it.
There were riots long before social media, children.
I can't say whether the police killed this particular man, but taking more than 24 hours for an after-action report that involved a prisoner's death would have been grounds for court-martial where I was trained.
Well, it's certainly going to be harder than predicting the riots of the past.
There's no time like the present. Well, the past used to be.
'Diverse society will fail' --Putnam;
Let black Police deal with black Culprits;
http://www.boston.com/news/glo...
Casteism