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The Demographic Future of America's Political Parties
HughPickens.com writes: Daniel McGraw writes that based on their demographic characteristics the Democratic and Republican parties face two very different futures. There's been much written about how millennials are becoming a reliable voting bloc for Democrats, but there's been much less attention paid to one of the biggest get-out-the-vote challenges for the Republican Party heading into the next presidential election: The Republican Party voter is old—and getting older and far more Republicans than Democrats have died since the 2012 elections. By combining presidential election exit polls with mortality rates per age group from the U.S. Census Bureau, McGraw calculated that, of the 61 million who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, about 2.75 million will be dead by the 2016 election. About 2.3 million of President Barack Obama's voters have died too but that leaves a big gap in between, a difference of roughly 453,000 in favor of the Democrats. "I've never seen anyone doing any studies on how many dead people can't vote," laughs William Frey, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who specializes in demographic studies. "I've seen studies on how many dead people do vote. The old Daley Administration in Chicago was very good at that."
Frey points out that, since Republicans are getting whiter and older, replacing the voters that leave this earth with young ones is essential for them to be competitive in presidential elections. "Millennials (born 1981 to 1997) now are larger in numbers than baby boomers ([born] 1946 to 1964), and how they vote will make the big difference. And the data says that if Republicans focus on economic issues and stay away from social ones like gay marriage, they can make serious inroads with millennials." Exit polling indicates that millennials have split about 65-35 in favor of the Dems in the past two elections. If that split holds true in 2016, Democrats will have picked up a two million vote advantage among first-time voters. These numbers combined with the voter death data puts Republicans at an almost 2.5 million voter disadvantage going into 2016.
Frey points out that, since Republicans are getting whiter and older, replacing the voters that leave this earth with young ones is essential for them to be competitive in presidential elections. "Millennials (born 1981 to 1997) now are larger in numbers than baby boomers ([born] 1946 to 1964), and how they vote will make the big difference. And the data says that if Republicans focus on economic issues and stay away from social ones like gay marriage, they can make serious inroads with millennials." Exit polling indicates that millennials have split about 65-35 in favor of the Dems in the past two elections. If that split holds true in 2016, Democrats will have picked up a two million vote advantage among first-time voters. These numbers combined with the voter death data puts Republicans at an almost 2.5 million voter disadvantage going into 2016.
Orrin G. Hatch, Utah-Jan. 4, 1977 Thad Cochran, Miss.-Dec. 27, 1978 Charles E. Grassley, Iowa-Jan. 5, 1981 Mitch McConnell, Ky.-Jan. 3, 1985 Richard C. Shelby, Ala.-Jan. 6, 1987 John McCain, Ariz.-Jan. 6, 1987 James M. Inhofe, Okla.-Nov. 30, 1994
The following is a list from rollcall.com of the Democrats in the U.S. Senate that have served for at least 20 years and the dates when they first took office ...
Patrick J. Leahy, Vt.-Jan. 14, 1975 Barbara A. Mikulski, Md.-Jan. 6, 1987 Harry Reid, Nev.-Jan. 6, 1987 Dianne Feinstein, Calif.-Nov. 4, 1992 Barbara Boxer, Calif.-Jan. 5, 1993 Patty Murray, Wash.-Jan. 5, 1993
The following is a list from rollcall.com of the Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives that have served for at least 20 years and the dates when they first took office ...
Don Young, Alaska-March 6, 1973 Jim Sensenbrenner, Wis.-Jan. 15, 1979 Harold Rogers, Ky.-Jan. 5, 1981 Christopher H. Smith, N.J.-Jan. 5, 1981 Joe L. Barton, Texas Jan. 3, 1985 Lamar Smith, Texas Jan. 6, 1987 Fred Upton, Mich.-Jan. 6, 1987 John J. Duncan Jr., Tenn.-Nov. 8, 1988 Dana Rohrabacher, Calif.-Jan. 3, 1989 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Fla.-Aug. 29, 1989 John A. Boehner, Ohio-Jan. 3, 1991 Sam Johnson, Texas-May 18, 1991 Ken Calvert, Calif.-Jan. 5, 1993 Robert W. Goodlatte, Va.-Jan. 5, 1993 Peter T. King, N.Y.-Jan. 5, 1993 John L. Mica, Fla.-Jan. 5, 1993 Ed Royce, Calif.-Jan. 5, 1993 Frank D. Lucas, Okla.-May 10, 1994 Rodney Frelinghuysen, N.J.-Jan. 4, 1995 Walter B. Jones, N.C.-Jan. 4, 1995 Frank A. LoBiondo, N.J.-Jan. 4, 1995 Mac Thornberry, Texas-Jan. 4, 1995 Edward Whitfield, Ky.-Jan. 4, 1995
The following is a list from rollcall.com of the Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives that have served for at least 20 years and the dates when they first took office ...
John Conyers Jr., Mich.-Jan. 4, 1965 Charles B. Rangel, N.Y.-Jan. 21, 1971 Steny H. Hoyer, Md.-May 19, 1981 Marcy Kaptur, Ohio-Jan. 3, 1983 Sander M. Levin, Mich.-Jan. 3, 1983 Peter J. Visclosky, Ind.-Jan. 3, 1985 Peter A. DeFazio, Ore.-Jan. 6, 1987 John Lewis, Ga.-Jan. 6, 1987 Louise M. Slaughter, N.Y.-Jan. 6, 1987 Nancy Pelosi, Calif.-June 2, 1987 Frank Pallone Jr., N.J.-Nov. 8, 1988 Eliot L. Engel, N.Y.-Jan. 3, 1989 Nita M. Lowey, N.Y.-Jan. 3, 1989 Jim McDermott, Wash.-Jan. 3, 1989 Richard E. Neal, Mass.-Jan. 3, 1989 José E. Serrano, N.Y.-March 20, 1990 David E. Price, N.C.-Jan. 7, 1997 Also served 1987-95 Rosa DeLauro, Conn.-Jan. 3, 1991 Collin C. Peterson, Minn.-Jan. 3, 1991 Maxine Waters, Calif.-Jan. 3, 1991 Jerrold Nadler, N.Y.-Nov. 3, 1992 Jim Cooper, Tenn.-Jan. 7, 2003 Also served 1983-95 Xavier Becerra, Calif.-Jan. 5, 1993 Sanford D. Bishop Jr., Ga.-Jan. 5, 1993 Corrine Brown, Fla.-Jan. 5, 1993 James E. Clyburn, S.C.-Jan. 5, 1993 Anna G. Eshoo, Calif.-Jan. 5, 1993 Gene Green, Texas-Jan. 5, 1993 Luis V. Gutierrez, Ill.-Jan. 5, 1993 Alcee L. Hastings, Fla.-Jan. 5, 1993 Eddie Bernice Johnson, Texas-Jan. 5, 1993 Carolyn B. Maloney, N.Y.-Jan. 5, 1993 Lucille Roybal-Allard, Calif.-Jan. 5, 1993 Bobby L. Rush, Ill.-Jan. 5, 1993 Robert C. Scott, Va.-Jan. 5, 1993 Nydia M. Velázquez, N.Y.-Jan. 5, 1993 Bennie Thompson, Miss.-April 13, 1993 Sam Farr, Calif.-June 8, 1993 Lloyd Doggett, Texas-Jan. 4, 1995 Mike Doyle, Pa.-Jan. 4, 1995 Chaka Fattah, Pa.-Jan. 4, 1995 Sheila Jackson Lee, Texas-Jan. 4, 1995 Zoe Lofgren, Calif.-Jan. 4, 1995
I'm glad you think that the abortion issue hasn't changed in the last 40 years. You must not be female and must not be paying any attention. Many states have made changes that have made abortion difficult to get. For example there have been laws that closed all but ONE clinic in one state, others that required "vaginal probing" with some sort of ultra sound stick along with requiring the Dr. to lie to patients, and several that have banned abortion after 20 weeks. There has been a lot of change in the last 40 years in this area - most of it driven by the religious zealot arm of the Republican party and of course mostly in the south.
You got that quote backwards. "Not to be a socialist at twenty is proof of want of heart; to be one at thirty is proof of want of head." - Georges Clemenceau
Nixon was for an ACA-style healthcare system. It was rejected by the Democrats at the time, since it didn't go far enough, and the Dems thought they could get single-payer instead.
Nixon is too liberal for the modern conservative party.
> "JFK was more conservative than most conservatives are today"
BULLSHIT!
Keith T. Poole at the University of Georgia has built his career on quanitfying the liberality/conservativeness of politics.
I couldn't find his numbers for John Kennedy, but he gave John Kennedy a -.318 during the 83rd Congress, making him the 15th most liberal member of that body. By comparison, in today's Senate, he'd rank as the 31st most liberal senator, between Senators Wyden and Murphy, and more liberal than EVERY SINGLE Republican in Congress.
To make laws that man cannot, and will not obey, serves to bring all law into contempt.
--E.C. Stanton
After the 2008 elections everyone realized the Democrats under Pelosi and Obama were too far left
Really? Obama has signed into law - including during the time when Pelosi was leading the house - bills that Reagan and both Presidents Bush could have only dreamed of. Under Obama - regardless of who controlled either chamber of congress - we saw huge tax cuts to the wealthy, and continued marginalization of the middle and lower classes.
Essentially, while the GOP was marching further to the right, the democrats decided it would be a good idea to follow.
Damn_registrars has no butt-hole. Damn_registrars has no use for a butt-hole.
One big reason for this is the Electoral College system for electing the US President. If, say, one party had 40%, and there were two parties with a similar platform splitting the remaining 60%, the minority platform will win.
In the 1912 election, Teddy Roosevelt running as the Bull Moose party candidate managed to beat the Republican candidate Taft, and Woodrow Wilson won with 42% of the popular vote. He also got 88 electoral votes to Taft's 8.
In the 1992 election, H. Ross Perot took 18.9% of the popular vote, but failed to get a single electoral vote, and probably didn't affect the election enough to be responsible for the loss by GHW Bush.
At least it isn't as bad as the recent UK election, where UKIP had significant support in terms of individual voters, yet only ended up with two seats. In the US, senate and congressional elections require a 50% majority for a candidate to win. If the majority is not met, a run-off election with the two leading candidates determines the winner.
#naabhaprzrag, #sverubfr-000, #agi-fcbafberq, negvpyr[pynff*=' negvpyr-ary-'] { qvfcynl: abar !vzcbegnag; }
> People believe the Tea Party was all white, because the media edited out the black people from the pictures
Oh puhlease. So it isn't 100% white, just 89%. Big deal. Just 1% of tea party supporters are black.
> People believe the elderly fools in the GOP represent the mainstream (every party has its embarrassments), because that's the only view the media will give.
Like Michelle Bachman, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry? Or maybe Huckabee and Cruz? They aren't podunk polliticians from some backwater with backwater ideas - all republican nominees for president serious enough to be invited to the debates by the party itself.
> Did you know that the average GOP congresscritter is actually a few years younger than the average Democrat?
Don't make mountains out of molehills. Republicans in congress average 55 years versus democrats at 60 years. They are both still old. What matters is the age of the voters and there is a big age gap there and it started in 2004.
> That the Citizens United ruling did not say that corporations are people (but instead that tightly-held corporations are effectively partnerships)?
That is like complaining Palin didn't actually say she can see russia from her house. Literalism isn't necessarily the best way to communicate truth.
> Indiana's recent Religious Freedom Restoration Act was effectively the same as the one Clinton signed into law in the 90s amid no controversy?
Times change. Are you trying to argue that times shouldn't change? I guess that would be a conservative viewpoint.
> That the frequency of rape on college campus is actually lower than in America as a whole?
That is probably true, I couldn't find confirmation. I am pretty sure that practically all violent crime is less on college campuses than it is in America as a whole. You know, because colleges don't matriculate many violent criminals. It is weird you think that is meaningful.
> That polls of right-wings voters show the leading issues right now are economic, foreign policy, and immigration, and that social issues like gay marriage and abortion aren't important enough to make the short-list?
And yet prominent republican politicians put that stuff on their short list. For example, all the GOP contenders for president this year defended that Indiana law you mentioned. The 'media' didn't make them do that.
But you keep right one believing the problem is the media misrepresenting the republicans, it is a conspiracy!
The Tea Party has no position on cultural issues. The Tea Party has no position on gay marriage, or abortion, or immigration, or drug legalization. It's a one-issue group, just like the NRA is a one-issue group. The NRA's issue is guns. The Tea Party's issue is the national debt.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/tea-party-leader-we-ll-take-the-debt-ceiling-hike-if-you-put-gay-troops-back-in-the-closet
Only three out of the ten commandments are codified into US law: thou shalt not kill (murder), thou shalt not steal(theft), thou shalt not bear false witness (perjury). Adultery laws might still be on the books in some states, but I doubt they'd hold up in court. Otherwise you are perfectly free to dishonor your parents, worship graven images, work on Sunday, take the Lord's name in vain, and covet your neighbor's wife. As for abortion: an embryo or a fetus is not a person and it is not viable to live on its own. Even the Bible makes this clear since the punishment for striking a pregnant woman and causes her to miscarriage is not the same punishment as murder.
Ultimately they remain not difficult to get otherwise the poorest wouldn't get them in such high numbers. There are much better questions to be asking, let's add some facts into the discussion, shall we? In a nutshell this seems to be a poor issue, in a country that struggles with contraceptive use. Blacks are over represented. For those with an agenda this is an empowerment struggle (her body, her choice etc.). I've also noticed when it isn't wanted it's a bunch of cells, when it's wanted it's a baby (women crying over a miscarriage). Source with nice graphs. At least half of American women will experience an unintended pregnancy by age 45, and at 2008 abortion rates, one in 10 women will have an abortion by age 20, one in four by age 30 and three in 10 by age 45.
Eighteen percent of U.S. women obtaining abortions are teenagers; those aged 15–17 obtain 6% of all abortions, 18–19-year-olds obtain 11%, and teens younger than 15 obtain 0.4%.
Women in their 20s account for more than half of all abortions: Women aged 20–24 obtain 33% of all abortions, and women aged 25–29 obtain 24%.
Non-Hispanic white women account for 36% of abortions, non-Hispanic black women for 30%, Hispanic women for 25% and women of other races for 9%
Women who have never married and are not cohabiting account for 45% of all abortions.
About 61% of abortions are obtained by women who have one or more children.
Forty-two percent of women obtaining abortions have incomes below 100% of the federal poverty level ($10,830 for a single woman with no children).
Twenty-seven percent of women obtaining abortions have incomes between 100–199% of the federal poverty level.
The reasons women give for having an abortion underscore their understanding of the responsibilities of parenthood and family life. Three-fourths of women cite concern for or responsibility to other individuals; three-fourths say they cannot afford a child; three-fourths say that having a baby would interfere with work, school or the ability to care for dependents; and half say they do not want to be a single parent or are having problems with their husband or partner.
Fifty-one percent of women who have abortions had used a contraceptive method in the month they got pregnant, most commonly condoms (27%) or a hormonal method (17%)
The number of U.S. abortion providers declined 4% between 2008 (1,793) and 2011 (1,720). The number of clinics providing abortion services declined 1%, from 851 to 839. Eighty-nine percent of all U.S. counties lacked an abortion clinic in 2011; 38% of women live in those counties.
Forty-six percent of abortion providers offer very early abortions (before the first missed period) and 95% offer abortion at eight weeks from the last menstrual period. Sixty-one percent offer at least some second-trimester abortion services (13 weeks or later), and 34% offer abortion at 20 weeks. Only 16% of all abortion providers offer abortions at 24 weeks.
In 2011-2012, the average amount paid for a nonhospital abortion with local anesthesia at 10 weeks’ gestation was $480. The average amount paid for an early medication abortion before 10 weeks was $504.
Eighty-four percent of clinics experienced at least one form of antiabortion harassment in 2011. Picketing is the most common form of harassment clinics are exposed to (80%) followed by phone calls (47%). Fifty-three percent of clinics were picketed 20 times or more.
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