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Ex-CIA Director: We're Not Doing Nearly Enough To Protect Against the EMP Threat
An anonymous reader writes: Last week saw the release of an open letter written to President Obama by a committee of notable political, security and defense experts — which includes past and present members of Congress, ambassadors, CIA directors, and others — on the country's concerning level of vulnerability to a natural or man-made Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP). An EMP has very real potential for crippling much of our electrical grid instantaneously. Not only would that immediately throw the social order into chaos, but the timeline to repair and restart the grid in most estimated scenarios would take months to a year or more.
Executive Director of the EMP Task Force Dr Peter Pry said, "Well, the short answer to [why we aren't defending against EMPs] is called the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. They used to be a trade association or a lobby for the 3,000 electric utilities that exist in this country. ... There is no part of the U.S. government that has the legal powers to order them to protect the grid. This is unusual, because in the case of every other critical infrastructure, there's an agency in the U.S. government that can require them to take actions for public safety. For example, the Food & Drug Administration can order certain medicines kept off shelves to protect the public safety. ... The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission doesn't have those legal powers or authorities."
Executive Director of the EMP Task Force Dr Peter Pry said, "Well, the short answer to [why we aren't defending against EMPs] is called the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. They used to be a trade association or a lobby for the 3,000 electric utilities that exist in this country. ... There is no part of the U.S. government that has the legal powers to order them to protect the grid. This is unusual, because in the case of every other critical infrastructure, there's an agency in the U.S. government that can require them to take actions for public safety. For example, the Food & Drug Administration can order certain medicines kept off shelves to protect the public safety. ... The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission doesn't have those legal powers or authorities."
"Come on. It's unfair!"
It's unbelievable. No, wait, that's, uh, ??
The causes of an EMP are nuclear blast or solar flare, I think in case of the former you would have far larger problems than the grid to worry about.
From TFA.
And, the NERC, which owns half of K Street and has got very deep pockets, has been successful in lobbying against legislation like the Grid Act and the SHIELD Act, both bipartisan bills supported almost unanimously by Democrats and Republicans. They've been able to stall for years and keep these bills held up. One time when we got a bill passed: the Grid Act actually, in 2010, unanimously passed the House. Everybody supported it. But Washington is so broken, one senator put a hold on a bill - if they know which senator to buy, they can buy that one senator and the person can put a hold on the bill so it can't come to the floor for a vote and they can do it anonymously. The senator doesn't have to identify themselves. So, you never know who stopped the bill.
shield and fuse anything sensitive enough to have a real problem.
We've been hardening things against EMP since the 40s.
Cue the endless stream of people saying "but its really hard" or "we're not doing it now so we can't do it ever"... or other related nonsense.
Look, do we need to shield every fucking thing from EMP? No. Obviously not. Obviously... Not. BUT a few things really should be shielded. Core military communications, power, and computer systems? Yep.
The data center facebook keeps your duck face picts in? Nope.
The datacenters that keep account information for banks? Yep... unless you want an end of FlightClub moment.
The datacenters that keep all your cat videos? Nope.
The datacenter that keeps inventory and manages logistics for the military? Yep.
Notice a pattern?
We don't need to EMP harden consumer devices. If your car or your phone or whatever dies in an EMP, that is fucking tragic but that is the least of your problems if we've got nukes detonating in the upper atmosphere.
What needs to be hardened are those assets the guys in the strategic defense bunker need access to when they're sending orders to the ballistic submarines to conduct retaliatory strategic strikes. Very little outside of that actually needs EMP shielding on planet earth. In orbit... I'm not sure about solar flares... correct me if I'm wrong but that is similar phenomenon that is likewise negated by EMP shielding. if not, then ignore the reference.
But the consumer networks don't need to be shielded. Because who gives a fuck. Maybe you want some medical stuff sheilded as well just because people will die if the life support machine divides by zero. I don't know. Secure the military stuff... some of the finance stuff... the rest can blue screen when the apocalypse comes. No one will care.
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Just heard a long-format interview with three of the signers the other day. Very interesting.
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve your problem, you're not using enough of it. --AC
Really this should be done over the ISlamic State
There are some non-nuclear EMP weapons.
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How we put up with this shit really escapes me.
Feather-nesting bed-wetters. Why don't they predict something that will happen for a change?
Just don't invite the European Minister of Parliament, if Mr. Schulz is a threat.
"This is unusual, because in the case of every other critical infrastructure, there's an agency in the U.S. government that can require them to take actions for public safety. "
That's because electricity is relatively new to the US, if one judges why the power lines are still nailed to wooden posts all over the country.
In other civilized countries those have been put 6 feet underground several generations ago.
But I guess you needed that money to bring war on foreign countries with oil.
> An EMP has very real potential for crippling much of our electrical grid instantaneously
A *nuclear* one, sure. But that would require someone to explode a nuclear bomb over the US.
Non-nuclear EMPs are a joke, and not getting better.
The bigger the tensions in a country the more important that the infrastructure is up and running. If there is an power outage for a couple of days and your inner society tensions are not too big, life would get organized again. Most of the food I consume is produced locally. Real problems would be heating (in winter) and water supply. However, I assume that we could organize that in a couple of days based on existing catastrophe reaction plans. True health care especially hospitals will not work, however, this only affects a few people and is not threatening to society. The only determinable issue is tensions in different groups of people in town, as police will not be able to keep control in the same way.
Q: Why are we just talking about it and why hasn't the problem been fixed?
Dr. Pry: Okay. Well, the short answer to that is itâ(TM)s called the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. They are basically the representativeâ" they used to be a trade association or a lobby for the 3,000 electric utilities [...] agency in the U.S. government [...] protect the public safety
Woolsey: [mumble mumble THEY could make a bomb]
I call NO THANKS on this transparent attempt to create yet another regulatory agency arm of DHS, and Jen Bawden who may be as concerned as I am about the grid, but sounds like she wants a boxcar on the gravy train. Mumble mumble THEY could come by boat she says. Then Woolsey and Pry go so far as to declare NERC 'worthless'. Sounds like a gub'mint involvement power grab that has little to do with engineering. To find out how little a political initiative like this will actually improve the grid, just go ahead and create this new agency, just like all the other ones. Before long everyone will be working for the Federal Government and the economy will be supported by a single hot dog vendor in Wash DC. They'll spend their whole budget creating scary power point presentations about bad-people-threats, because they'd rather not go outside.
NERC is populated by people who don't mind going outside to look at things.
NERC does need a kick in the ass though. It needs to worry less about cyberattack (which conveniently does not require you to go outside) and put a more concentrated effort into black start capability --- which is the ability (through planned procedures and simulation) to bring up the grid from complete power down This involves the identification of islands and what are called 'black start resources', stations that can power up first and help others to start. See the working document on EOP-005-x. Whatever the disaster and no matter how pervasive its effects, the first priority needs to be a firm plan for getting things going again and isolating sections that need replacement parts.
Do not let that Carrington Event stuff terrify you too deeply. In the 1859 small gauge telegraph wires were strung hundreds of miles to make the perfect EMP antenna, and its effects were what could be expected of a system that was on no way designed to withstand induced EMF. The modern grid is a lightning-arresting monster of conductor. Many old or improperly maintained components may fail in places, but it's not some slate-wiper, the greatest challenge will be merely to isolate problems and restart the rest.
Unfortunately when it comes to telephone communication this generation is pretty well screwed by a series of shitty little compromises over 30 years that will result in NO PHONES WORKING a week after major sections of the grid has gone dark, no matter if there are portable generators handy. POTS is gone, control has been centralized to distant places. Don't expect that cell tower to let you call your neighbor.
But the essential components and practice of the power grid remains the same as it was in the 70s, robust and reliable. If NERC would spend more time planning and training for black start capability, THAT is the best, possibly only, thing that would make a real difference.
<blink>down the rabbit hole</blink>
In 1859 the world was hit by an EMP from a massive solar flare, called the Carrington Event. From a comment by Sampenny in the original article.
More recently in March 1989 we had a geomagnetic storm which caused a massive blackout in Quebec. It was repaired in 9 hours, but a more massive widespread storm could take months.
Really interesting reading, found the link at the Wiki article on NEMP.
http://www.ornl.gov/sci/ees/et...
I think, as usual, the truth lies somewhere in the middle (as the ORNL study points out). A few things to keep in mind:
1. Even a small nuclear weapon can cause a significant EMP. Larger weapons cause a more widespread affect, but even a relatively small 2KT weapon, targeted over a key facility, could knock out power to a large area.
2. The weapon needs to be detonated above dense atmosphere.
As far as electromagnetic pulses in general, shielding is effective ... and those who say it isn't don't understand that there are right and wrong ways to shield and ground. In my work (radio engineer), I have to do some odd-looking things to protect against lightning. A single loop in a feedline to an AM tower, for example, attenuates the lightning that comes back into my facility. Thus, I have big honkin' ball gaps at the tower base, but can get by with a smaller "horn gap" at the entry to my equipment.
Our grid could be protected with reasonable expenditures. We couldn't prevent all damage, but we could limit it. Solid-state electronics have to be protected two ways: overall shielding, and limiting/protection at the I/O points. For example, an old desktop computer in a heavy metal case, with a good ground, probably wouldn't notice the EMP ... *except* for induced voltages coming in on the video, mouse and printer cables. Those would probably send the motherboard screaming into the shrubbery. :)
Cogito, igitur comedam pizza.
I'm going to temper that apocalyptic-looking premise with a quote from that NASA article which may provide a little... comfort.
The worst geomagnetic storm of the Space Age, which knocked out power across Quebec in March 1989, registered Dst=-600 nT. Modern estimates of Dst for the Carrington Event itself range from -800 nT to a staggering -1750 nT.
So, that's 'only' up to 3x as bad as an event that happened in 1989, and we seemed to have got through that okay (their power was cut for 11 hours apparently).
Maybe even NASA is over-reacting a bit on this then..... But like CO2 emissions, it's best not to take the chance. It is possible to protect the grid to a large extent if the world cared enough the risk. I think we're talking in the range of $billions of investment to save $trillions of damage when the inevitable happens (definitely a question of when, rather than if).
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Thanks for posting from TFA, inspired me to go read it. Pretty messed up stuff. Broken politics aside, their conjuring up of "duhr, 'cause terruhrists, russia, china, much scare, very fear!" arguments are insignificant to me.
However coronal mass ejections are very real and very scary for power distribution networks, and I would say that even without phantom evils going bump in the night, hardening power distribution against EM events is an issue all nations should tackle.
As an outsider living in Europe though looking over the pond... I must say: It's all a symptom of a deeper illness I see in the USA: A short sighted attitude in isn't able to fund long term investment projects which will enrich future generations. The US used to know how to do this, but has forgotten. When I visit the US now days, I just see crumbling and ugly infrastructure everywhere I look. Crumbling infrastructure which was left by our grandfather's generation. Depressing like hell.
Back on topic, hanging medium voltage power cables from poles in US cities: WTF why? They might increase your vulnerability to EMP pulses a bit, but they are also just dumb by every possible measurement except the extremely short sighted near term where they seem cheaper. Long term though, you guys need to replace them after every major snow storm, wind storm, fallen tree branch, when they rot, or when a truck drives into one. The cherry on top is their horrible ugliness! Only costs a few times more to bury them but you won't need to service it for a century! Srsly.
So bury your medium voltage power throughout your cities. Yes, a lower EMP inductive surface area is nice, as buried cables are much better shielded. But it's also significantly cheaper long term and leaves your cities looking beautiful.
Nice side effect: your lights and heat all tend to stay on even during record breaking blizzards, hurricanes and ice storms. What's not to love? You don't need EMP fear mongering or phantom terrorists to justify doing this since it makes sense on every level to bury medium voltage power cables.
social order into chaos
Cats and dogs, living together; gentlemen and their pregnant maids, marrying; women and the poor, voting. See, chaos is the downfall of the British Empire! God save the Queen!
The world's fucked anyway so who cares?
If you like the topic of EMP and how it would affect the society, check this fiction from William R. Forstchen. It's called One Second After and it's written from the perspective of the US being brought to its knees after a terrorist EMP strike and its effects on all societal levels.
"The hallmark of humanity is the ability to move beyond sensory inputs" - Mary Helen Immordino-Yang
If the electricity is off for two weeks, society will begin to totally disintegrate.
Your water tap stops because no power to pump water into your nearby water tower. It may have a backup generator, but that takes fuel, which I'll come to next.
You won't be able to put fuel into your car because no electricity to operate the gas pumps at the filling station. Even using siphoning or other ways of pumping the fuel out of the underground storage tanks, the filling station fuel supplies will get tapped out soon.
Not only will you no longer be able to use your car (electric or fuel powered) but there will be no more deliveries. Your local grocery store should be completely picked clean by now.
At this point, people will fight for food, water, batteries, fuel, other supplies. Don't expect help from the police, military of government. They will be having the same basic problems. The people who participate in the police and military will be having the same basic problems with their own families.
By now, you can see where this is going.
I'll see your senator, and I'll raise you two judges.
I think our politicians watch too many nuclear war movies from the 70s.
EMP from a nuclear detonation simply does not do what preppers, paranoids, and government officials say it does. Yes, a fast EMP can induce voltages, but there is very little energy coupled. So, the only danger appears at high impedance terminations that are not protected from overvoltage. To my knowledge, this does not exist, as most devices are protected against overvoltage due to ESD.
There are enough surge protectors plugged into the grid everywhere to completely protect the consumer low-voltage side of the service (with their MOVs, TVSs, and GDTs across the line). There are also overvoltage devices in other segments of the grid that would easily handle a low-energy overvoltage from a nuclear burst.
This whole thing is being completely overblown by politicians in search of a "problem" to solve.
"Only costs a few times more"?? Do you say stuff like that often while shopping for a new car or a house to live in?
We can't even keep medical records secure. How are we going to stop an EMP?
EMP should be banned too. Problem solved, now back to work.
Okay, you're protected the grid but not a single post-1973 car or truck, or router, switch, phone, or household appliance survives. If it happens in the winter - strategically my choice - that would trigger a massive die off and you can write off most if not all of the northern Midwest and New England because they quickly become cannibal territory. If it was a very bad winter, you could maximize the casualties due to starvation and disease.
Add that the decrease in population makes all of this moot since there would be no one to **operate** the grid - communications would be gone and limited to traffic between Federal hardened facilities. An EMP strike would decapitate State and Local governments, create confusion, and kill off far more people than any single nuke could.
Only costs a few times more to bury them but you won't need to service it for a century! Srsly.
More like 10 times in the country, and much more in the city. I used to work in this industry, did you?
APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
I read a book called "One Second After" describing an EMP scenario. Very eye opening. One day, all the electronics just quit working. Every vehicle with a computer stopped running. For months nobody had any clue as to what happened. People died like flies, starting with hospital patients and progressing to people dependent on medication. Then the food started running out. By the end of the book, when the power started coming back, the great majority of the population was kaput. It was an interesting read.
I agree with your assessment, someone needs to have a nuclear device that they can deliver into the upper atmosphere above US infrastructure and detonate it there. This isn't a typical air burst where you light it off at say 5000 feet to increase the damage to a city or army group. It is quite possible that there will be few if any actual casualties caused by the initial detonation, so the motivations of an actor using this mode of attack are going to be quite different than an actor that just wants to kill a lot of people.
Realistically, I would only expect China or Russia to employ this sort of tactic, since they are powerful enough to be able to resist a conventional retaliatory invasion by us conventional forces, but they still would have the nuclear capability to retaliate in a conventional fashion should the US decide to just start paving their major cities with MIRVing cruse missiles.
I think either someone has a leaked copy of a 'Plan A' warfare scenario from Russia or China that they cannot avow, or they are looking for more budget.
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Further since an EMP is extremely unlikely to happen, they can spend endless amounts 'protecting' the grid and we'll never know whether it actually works.
What are you talking about? This isn't astrology here; this is well-understood science. We have some EMP data from old atmospheric nuclear tests, and if need be we can create low level (non-nuclear) EMPs for further modeling. This is just electrical engineering. Of course we can make sound predictions about whether or not specific types of protection will work
If they said they are concerned about someone using a nuclear weapon to take out the power grid, everyone would quickly point out that the problem is not protecting the power grid, but that someone has a nuclear weapon.
North Korea has nuclear weapons and will soon have the ability to deliver one to the west coast of the USA. What we going to do about it? Mostly nothing, because China will be very annoyed if we invade and we know that Seoul could be utterly destroyed even by conventional weapons if the North Koreans tried.
Despite widespread mockery, nuclear disaster mitigation (yes, including duck and cover) can work, and if we're talking about realistic measures we can take to limit collateral damage I can think of nothing more important than preserving the power grid.
I'm not commenting on the costs involved or where this should be on our national priority list, but it's a sound idea.
The problem is the vulnerability of the power grid. It is pretty easy to bring down transmission towers (with a limited quantity of explosives) and it would be trivial for some terrorist to e.g. place synchronized timer activated explosives on critical points on the grid. Done right the build in redundancy will not help and large areas could be without electricity for weeks to months.
EMP can be a problem but (again ignoring nuclear war) the effects of EMP devices are local, sure that can still be a huge problem given enough devices however the bang-per-buck for a terrorist or enemy state would be much lower than the above scenario. IMHO only critical infrastructure should be protected against EMP.
Just use tubes and copper cored relays, problem solved
Say one kind of power cable costs 400 dollars, but it lasts 100 years before maintenance.
Then say another power cable is a bargain at just 100 dollars but lasts 10 years before it must be serviced.
The depth of your foresight is the limiting factor in calculating your ROI.
To make matters worse, you're conflating very different things. A house or a car is a private asset. A power line is common infrastructure. If a private man buys a house which costs 4 times as much as that of another man, then we just call him rich and don't care much as it has no impact. But if a city replaces a street with cheap sand to save money, which must be shovelled and patched every time the wind blows, then we all would suffer at how they are making our day to day life worse, burning our money on endless repairs, and contributing to increased wear in our cars. Long term, sand always a more expensive road material if you look beyond today and into the *societal* total cost of ownership.
Past generations have spent vast fortunes on amazing infrastructure that makes our lives better. Why would you now cheap out and get bargain crap that won't be around in a few years.
The average American grandfather built and paid for the infrastructure that made a great nation.
Today's father is just leaving their children two legacies: rising debt and pointless war.
Sure. I happily buy a car costing "only a few times more" if it really is that much better. Which is why I don't drive cheap chinese cars. Similiar for housing. A tent (house sized) is so much cheaper. Still, I bough an ordinary house costing many times more. It has advantages like outlasting any tent, it stands up to wind, it is not hard to keep warm in the winter, it handles snow load, breaking in takes more than just scissors, . . .
Buried power lines cost more to set up, but cost less to maintain. burying is a win albeit not in the shortest term. Similiar to choosing american cars over chinese, or houses over tents.