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Pew Survey Documents Gaps Between Public and Scientists

PvtVoid writes: A new Pew Research Study documents an alarming gap between public perception of scientific issues and the opinions of the scientists themselves, as measured by a poll of AAAS scientists. Even worse, the gap is partisan, with clear differences between Republicans and Democrats, and between conservatives and liberals. For example, while 98% of AAAS members agree with the statement that "Human beings and other living things have evolved over time", only 21% of conservatives agree, compared with 54% of liberals. Global warming, similarly, shows an ideological gap: 98% of AAAS scientists agreed with the statement that "the Earth is getting warmer mostly due to human activity", compared with 21% of conservatives and 54% of liberals. Encouragingly, almost everybody thinks childhood vaccines should be required (86% of AAAS members, 65% of conservatives, and 74% of liberals.) Go here for an interactive view of the data.

278 comments

  1. Makes sense. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    In order to succeed as a scientist, one must be of above-average intelligence.

    The opinions of above-average people, on issues that require above-average intelligence to really understand, will naturally be at variance with the opinions of merely average and below-average people.

    I am sure there are plenty of average people who would disagree with me on this, however.

    1. Re:Makes sense. by praxis · · Score: 1

      In order to succeed as a scientist, one must be of above-average intelligence.

      Could not one of average intelligence yet above-average perseverance perform an experiment building on another's experiment and be called a "successful" scientist. You did not show that above-average intelligence is a necessary condition for success as a scientist.

    2. Re:Makes sense. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Good scientists would abstain because the true answer to most of these questions is "more data needed". Pick one question where the science surrounding it has made a precise a priori prediction that turned out accurate. I don't think that's the case for any, so anyone agreeing or disagreeing is doing so based off exceedingly weak evidence. Most likely it isn't even that, they are just parroting what they heard in the news or read in a textbook.

    3. Re:Makes sense. by sycodon · · Score: 1

      I think it's safe to say that in any SHTF event, it's the people who believe themselves to be smart who will suffer the worst.

      --
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    4. Re:Makes sense. by Rasperin · · Score: 1

      Let me clarify for OP's intent, "In order to succeed and receive your PhD (along with successfully defending your thesis), one must be of above average education". Intelligence is of little concern and to be honest I'd like to know what defines intelligence. The IQ tests show how good you are in ones culture and pattern recognition, emotional intelligence is another factor, than there is the drive required to actually use any intelligence, and finally education that allows adapting obtained knowledge to newly created ideas.

      To b) depends on what you define as intelligence. If it's education, than yeah be it field education or classroom education, I think knowing wtf you are doing is important and can play a rather large role in career success.

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    5. Re:Makes sense. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Could not one of average intelligence yet above-average perseverance perform an experiment building on another's experiment and be called a "successful" scientist.

      Well, it worked for Edison...

    6. Re:Makes sense. by jellomizer · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You are implying that ones political stance is an indicator of their intelligence?

      There is a huge group of people who's opinion is based on what the party says, I am a loyal Democrat/Republican so my stance will match what they say. There is no attention of the detail of the message nor any attempt to challenge the notion brought up. So the Democrats say Global Warming is a problem, people will blindly follow. If the Democrats say GMO foods are bad, they will blindly follow. Intelligence isn't the issue, it is just the current polarized nature of the two party system which will normally make one side right and the other wrong (assuming one side is right)

      Now the Democrats vs Government view on funding. Democrats prefer more of a blanket funding in scientists, So Scientists who are funded via the Democrats policies have invested interests in that party, so they are making a living off of researching climate science due to Democrats funding, so they will be friendly to that party, and in turn that party will listen to their studies. The Republicans will more likely fund Military or Energy science. Where there is less science and more engineering. Thus you will find a lot more Right winged engineers. As their main means of living is due to Republican policy. So the Republicans will more likely push ideas of a new Military Technology or Energy Extraction technology.

      It is interesting on how your political views change depending on where you are living and who is controlling your purse strings.
      Now they are crazies on both sides. You got the Leftist hippie type who wants to change everything to match their utopian vision where everyone is all happy because they follow one idea of a perfect life. Then you got the Far Right densest who thinks we should go back to the "Leave it to Beaver" life style, that he fondly remembers as a child (too young to realize the pressures of the world). These guys can often get into the House or Representatives thus get enough media attention to direct "The I have to do what the party says" people.

         

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    7. Re:Makes sense. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Let me clarify for OP's intent, "In order to succeed and receive your PhD (along with successfully defending your thesis), one must be of above average education".

      A PhD is a type of education. You need to be well educated to be well educated? Ah, we're just saying tautologies!

      1=1! Your turn!

    8. Re:Makes sense. by MightyMartian · · Score: 2

      And here's somebody who doesn't think solipsism is utterly pointless and nihilistic philosophy, and actually thinks researchers should adopt it.

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    9. Re:Makes sense. by morgauxo · · Score: 1

      Congratulations A/C. That's the most successful troll that I have seen since.. well.. since the article itself!

    10. Re:Makes sense. by jonnyj · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You are implying that ones political stance is an indicator of their intelligence?

      That is the clear intention of the article summary, because it highlights only those issues where Democrats are more likely to agree with scientists than Republicans. A more honest summary would have also brought attention to the subjects where Democrats differ from scientists: nuclear power, pesticide use in foods and animal research, for example.

    11. Re:Makes sense. by Penguinisto · · Score: 1

      To be fair, there is a vast difference between intelligence and wisdom; an intelligent and man may know/deduce everything there is to know about thunderstorms, but may not be wise enough to get his ass in out of one.

      --
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    12. Re:Makes sense. by cyberchondriac · · Score: 1

      I'm just surprised that only 54% of democrats apparently believe in evolution, if I get the gist of this article right.
      I know that doesn't translate to claiming that 46% are creationists, but still, that's hardly grounds for all the stone throwing at conservatives over it.
      FWIW, I identify as a very moderate conservative, (with several things on the right I don't agree with) and even I don't dispute evolution.. nor for that matter, believe in the Biblical god except as a complex mythology, like so many mythologies before it.. most of which are rather fascinating as such.

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    13. Re:Makes sense. by PopeRatzo · · Score: 2

      Intelligence is of little concern and to be honest I'd like to know what defines intelligence.

      If only there was some sort of reference that we could use to find such a definition...

      "noun
      1.
      the ability to acquire and apply knowledge and skills."

      or...

      " A very general mental capability that, among other things, involves the ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly and learn from experience. It is not merely book learning, a narrow academic skill, or test-taking smarts. Rather, it reflects a broader and deeper capability for comprehending our surroundings—"catching on," "making sense" of things, or "figuring out" what to do.""

      No matter how you define, it is most definitely not the same as "education". I'm not sure if you've ever gotten a PhD or been on PhD committees or been an adviser to PhD candidates, but "education" only gets you partway there (and not that big a part).

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    14. Re:Makes sense. by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Could not one of average intelligence yet above-average perseverance perform an experiment building on another's experiment and be called a "successful" scientist.

      Maybe, but they still have to write it up and get it published, and that's where the above-average intelligence comes in. There are drones in science, like in every field, but they don't get "successful" without publishing. And often that means working with others, and working with others requires above-average intelligence.

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    15. Re:Makes sense. by blue9steel · · Score: 1

      That's a good point.

    16. Re:Makes sense. by Rasperin · · Score: 1

      Point and score! Winner is you. :D

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    17. Re:Makes sense. by ranton · · Score: 1

      a) do you really trust any measure of intelligence?

      Yes. I trust no claim of a 100% accurate measurement of intelligence, but trust that many measurements of intelligence are at least able to measure large differences in intelligence. A standard deviation is a big difference, so I do believe a 15 point difference in IQ is going to have a great deal of predictive ability regarding someone's ability to learn and understand information.

      b) do you really think that scientists have higher intelligence?

      Yes. I have worked with PhD students and professional researchers, and I have worked with "average" people, and there is a big difference in intelligence. It is hard to quantify the difference, but it is there.

      c) do you really think that intelligence has anything but the most minor role to play in career success as a scientist?

      I guess it depends on what you mean by minor role. There are likely very few prominent scientists who are less than one standard deviation smarter than the average person. In this context intelligence has a very major role. But once you are at least this smart, access to education and hard work will have far more to do with your success than raw intelligence. In this context it has a very minor role.

      It is similar to how beauty impacted how I evaluated potential romantic partners. There was a minimal level of attractiveness before I would contemplate starting a romantic relationship with someone. This is probably a 7 out of 10 in quantitative terms. But after reaching this threshold, beauty has almost no impact on how overall attractive a woman is to me. Intelligence, humor, shared interests and beliefs, etc. are far more important. Success in most careers that demand a certain level of intelligence is just about the same in my opinion.

      --
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    18. Re:Makes sense. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And then those same people look to their leaders for direction. Hence the partisan results.

    19. Re:Makes sense. by penguinoid · · Score: 2

      You are implying that ones political stance is an indicator of their intelligence?

      What!? I'm sure both parties are equally likely to use words like "intellectual", "elite", "professor", "educated", "scientist" as disparaging or insults.

      --
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    20. Re:Makes sense. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The summary did point out actual numbers. So, according to TFS, while a majority of liberals agree with evolution, it's only 54%. That means that 46 of "liberals" actually believe in Creationism. So yeah, it would be interesting to see which subjects show clear disagreement between liberals and scientists, but it looks like they can't even agree on evolution. 54% is not anywhere near a clear majority.

    21. Re:Makes sense. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are implying that ones political stance is an indicator of their intelligence?

      Given that the GOP has been overtaken by the proudly ignorant, yes.

      Those that choose to stay with the GOP is of low intelligence.

    22. Re:Makes sense. by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      I guess the public modded this funny. It's bang on the button.

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    23. Re:Makes sense. by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      He wasn't a scientist, he was a manager.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    24. Re:Makes sense. by david_thornley · · Score: 2

      Actually, anybody who disagrees with me very probably has a lower IQ than I do. As well as anybody who agrees with me. There's lots of people out there with a higher IQ than mine, but vastly more with lower ones.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    25. Re:Makes sense. by david_thornley · · Score: 2

      It might be possible to get a Ph.D., that way, but building a career in science requires more than managing to do something original enough to convince a thesis committee.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    26. Re:Makes sense. by Sique · · Score: 4, Informative
      Even with a lot of questions surrounding the IQ, the generally understanding of intelligence and the importance of it, one fact is quite undisputed:

      If controlled for social factors, IQ is by far the best prediction of your future educational performance. So the chance of becoming a scientist is directly correlated to your IQ.

      The original IQ test, as invented by Alfred Binet, was created to determine in what class to put children who started school. In 1882, France introduced compulsory education, but many children in France had no or questionable birth certificates, and when they were about to start school, it was not clear what their real age was and which class would be suitable for them. And then there were the children who required special care, and until the beginning of the 20th century, it was up to the subjective judgement of the respective teachers to determine which children should get it. Thus Alfred Binet and Théodore Simon developed a test to more objectively assess the educational potential of a child, the Binet-Simon-Test, which was to calculate something called the "intelligence age" of a child, and which was used as a criterion in what class to put a child.

      It should thus be expected that the IQ as measured by the Binet-Simon-test (and the later development Stanford-Binet-test and all subsequent IQ tests) is quite predictive for your educational career, because that's what they were invented for.

      --
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    27. Re:Makes sense. by zephvark · · Score: 1

      You are implying that ones political stance is an indicator of their intelligence?

      There is a huge group of people who's opinion.

      .

      You had me until "who is opinion". The word you're looking for, I believe, is "whose", and please report back to your grade-school teacher for remedial work and a spanking.

    28. Re:Makes sense. by ahodgson · · Score: 1

      Anyone who believes things just because their chosen party proclaims them to be true is probably an idiot. Even politicians mostly just pretend to believe most of the crud they spew.

    29. Re:Makes sense. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So in other words, there are lots of people that have a higher IQ than you, but they're too smart to reply to your posts.

      See, look, aren't I smart?

      Uh wait... um... nevermind.

      ^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H

    30. Re: Makes sense. by terjeber · · Score: 1

      Or, perhaps he"s not an English native with "only" a reasonable grasp of English while you are one of those ignorant, moronic Americans who thinks English is the only language used in the world. You know: The bible is written in English and if English was good enough for Jesus then it should be good enough for the Spanish. Retard!

    31. Re:Makes sense. by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      I have worked with PhD students and professional researchers, and I have worked with "average" people, and there is a big difference in intelligence. It is hard to quantify the difference, but it is there.

      You can't argue with facts like that.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    32. Re:Makes sense. by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      working with others requires above-average intelligence

      By that definition every McDonalds employee is of above-average intelligence.

      While not impossible, it seems unlikely.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    33. Re:Makes sense. by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      You are implying that ones political stance is an indicator of their intelligence?

      That is the clear intention of the article summary, because it highlights only those issues where Democrats are more likely to agree with scientists than Republicans. A more honest summary would have also brought attention to the subjects where Democrats differ from scientists: nuclear power, pesticide use in foods and animal research, for example.

      You are assuming that the scientists are always right.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    34. Re: Makes sense. by KGIII · · Score: 1

      They obviously understand, otherwise why would they use the name Jesus?

      --
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    35. Re:Makes sense. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      About scientific issues? They are. Specially if the dispute comes from an illiterate moron.

    36. Re:Makes sense. by Stuarticus · · Score: 1

      The answers for those aren't as wildly divergent between party affiliation and between scientists and the public.

      --
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    37. Re:Makes sense. by gzuckier · · Score: 2

      You are implying that ones political stance is an indicator of their intelligence?

      There is a huge group of people who's opinion is based on what the party says, I am a loyal Democrat/Republican so my stance will match what they say. There is no attention of the detail of the message nor any attempt to challenge the notion brought up. So the Democrats say Global Warming is a problem, people will blindly follow. If the Democrats say GMO foods are bad, they will blindly follow. Intelligence isn't the issue, it is just the current polarized nature of the two party system which will normally make one side right and the other wrong (assuming one side is right)

      Now the Democrats vs Government view on funding. Democrats prefer more of a blanket funding in scientists, So Scientists who are funded via the Democrats policies have invested interests in that party, so they are making a living off of researching climate science due to Democrats funding, so they will be friendly to that party, and in turn that party will listen to their studies. The Republicans will more likely fund Military or Energy science. Where there is less science and more engineering. Thus you will find a lot more Right winged engineers. As their main means of living is due to Republican policy. So the Republicans will more likely push ideas of a new Military Technology or Energy Extraction technology.

      It is interesting on how your political views change depending on where you are living and who is controlling your purse strings. Now they are crazies on both sides. You got the Leftist hippie type who wants to change everything to match their utopian vision where everyone is all happy because they follow one idea of a perfect life. Then you got the Far Right densest who thinks we should go back to the "Leave it to Beaver" life style, that he fondly remembers as a child (too young to realize the pressures of the world). These guys can often get into the House or Representatives thus get enough media attention to direct "The I have to do what the party says" people.

      That's the cognitive style model of current US politics (my name for it anyway). Basically, all those various personality theories (Myers–Briggs, etc) can usually be collapsed along one axis; data-driven decisionmaking vs intuitive/gut feeling decision making. The set of things we call "identity politics", loyal party member, hierarchical authoritarian, all fall into the latter category. At this point in time, for whatever reasons, the political "right" has purged itself of all the data-driven folks; you buy the whole rightist program because you are a rightist or you're out. There are plenty of such people on the left also, of course, "knee jerk liberals"; but the thing is that data-driven folks are almost all now considered leftist, because if you disagree with the doctrine on AGW or Obamacare or immigration you are cast out of the right. RINO and all that. And the thing is, that the two kinds of decision making/personality do not get along well. They do not trust each other's decisions, they do not trust each other's motives, they do not trust each other personally. There is essentially no mobility between the two groups, they do not promote each other or support each other, etc. etc. etc. This is something that management consultants run into all the time; companies where the daily nitty gritty work is done by data-driven types, but the management is all gut feeling/instinctive types, and the two levels do not get along well. The prognosis for such companies is not favorable, there aren't any suggested remedies other than "try harder to get along". So, here we are in the US of 2015.

      --
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    38. Re:Makes sense. by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      You are implying that ones political stance is an indicator of their intelligence?

      That is the clear intention of the article summary, because it highlights only those issues where Democrats are more likely to agree with scientists than Republicans. A more honest summary would have also brought attention to the subjects where Democrats differ from scientists: nuclear power, pesticide use in foods and animal research, for example.

      You speak truth. http://www.syracuse.com/news/i...

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  2. Correction by PvtVoid · · Score: 5, Informative

    The correct figures for the Global Warming question are: AAAS members 87%, conservatives 29%, liberals 76%.

    1. Re:Correction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Came here to say this. What a crap summary.

    2. Re:Correction by PvtVoid · · Score: 2

      You realize I'm the one who wrote the summary, right?

    3. Re:Correction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Now I do! Thanks for the correction.

    4. Re:Correction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Summary Writing Rule #3: please define acronyms when first mentioning them.

    5. Re:Correction by PvtVoid · · Score: 1

      I would think that a link to their fucking web page counts as a definition of the acronym. YMMV.

    6. Re:Correction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So 79% of conservatives are morons, but about 10% of those aren't complete dumbasses.

    7. Re:Correction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      YMMV.

      Which organization is that? You forgot to include the website this time.

    8. Re:Correction by PvtVoid · · Score: 1

      Which organization is that? You forgot to include the website this time.

      Very sorry. I forgot to include the links too! I meant conservatives and liberals.

    9. Re:Correction by jfengel · · Score: 1

      Yeah, the similarity of figures between the two did strike me as suspicious.

    10. Re:Correction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm curious - why are "Scientific Issues" in these stories, code words for "man-made global warming" and "evolution vs. creationism"?

      Are there no other "Scientific Issues" in the world right now? Do Republicans and Democrats share opinions on the existence of dark matter? On the Theory of Relativity? On mapping the human genome? On P vs NP?

      There are a million things to ask about (and many of them would probably be instructive of the different mindsets) - why must it always be those 2 politically charged things? They're not a representative sample of the label of "Scientific Issues" at all. Thus the story/summary is politically charged bunk. If you want to complain about Republican vies on AGW and Creationism, label the story as such. But that wouldn't be the desired clickbait, would it? It would be treated with a yawn.

    11. Re:Correction by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      These are scientific issues where there is more of a controversy among people in general than among scientists. I doubt most people care about dark matter, most generally accept that the Theory of Relativity (which one?) is true because Einstein was smart, most don't understand genome mapping or P vs. NP.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    12. Re:Correction by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I'm curious - why are "Scientific Issues" in these stories, code words for "man-made global warming" and "evolution vs. creationism"?

      Are there no other "Scientific Issues" in the world right now? Do Republicans and Democrats share opinions on the existence of dark matter? On the Theory of Relativity? On mapping the human genome? On P vs NP?

      Those are two areas that have generated a lot of controversy in the general public so they get a lot of attention. The other areas that get a lot of attention would be in medical research and human health. Most other scientific issues are way under the radar of public attention so most of the public doesn't have an opinion on them one way or the other.

    13. Re:Correction by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      I would think that a link to their fucking web page counts as a definition of the acronym. YMMV.

      No, it doesn't.

      Most people reading a summary expect it to make internal sense without having to go off and look things up.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  3. Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 3, Insightful

    A segment of the population has views that are different from the average of the entire population.

    Do the same thing with investment bankers and you'll see lots of gaps as well.

    Do it with politicians versus everyone else... gaps.

    Do it with police officers versus everyone... gaps.

    Look at our little community here on slashdot. Are our views analogous to the general population? Nope. Lots of gaps.

    So... I don't quite get the point of the survey. There have always been gaps between scientists and the general public and always will be just as there are gaps between any sub group and the whole and ALWAYS will be.

    Meaningless.

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    1. Re:Shocker... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      There have always been gaps between scientists and the general public

      I think the value of the study is showing how political ideology is strongly predictive of the gap.

      This is obviously not a new idea, but the study provides hard data to back it up.

    2. Re:Shocker... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's the "new science" that started in psychology the 40s but has since taken over nearly every field. You just find a difference between two groups (which could be due to literally anything) or the mere presence of a correlation (everything is correlated with everything else) and then wildly speculate about the cause. Never put your speculations in a form that makes a prediction less vague than increases/decreases though, no reason to risk being proved wrong.

    3. Re:Shocker... by davide+marney · · Score: 1

      This. Furthermore, the questions are primarily policy related, so they are especially meaningless. I may agree with you on climate change factually, but utterly disagree with you on what policies we should adopt regarding them. Of course "AAAS Members" don't agree with Joe and Jane Six-Pack, they don't work where they work, they don't live where they live, and so on and so on.

      Sheesh. I wish Pew had done a better job here.

      --
      "We receive as friendly that which agrees with, we resist with dislike that which opposes us" - Faraday
    4. Re:Shocker... by davide+marney · · Score: 1

      And, never state your hypothesis, we might comb through your results and point out embarrassing places where the data contradicts you.

      --
      "We receive as friendly that which agrees with, we resist with dislike that which opposes us" - Faraday
    5. Re:Shocker... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's not new science, fortune telling has been around for a very long time.

    6. Re:Shocker... by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      All truth is socially constructed, so the real fools are the one who think data could contradict TRUTH. /sarc

      The fact is that those that believe facts are socially constructed have a bad case of 'Science Envy', hence they phrase their religious dogma with sciencish terms. They deserve to be kicked square in the crotch and ignored.

      They should also not be allowed anywhere near hard science. Look at the mess they've made of the 'social sciences'.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    7. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 0

      Its just another mastrabatory progressive poll where some collection of halfwits want to claim intellectual superiority by asking a set of cherry picked questions under controlled circomstances and then strip out all context.

      Its part of the reason statistics in general need to be read with great skepticism because they're all very easily manipulated.

      If you think about it, they're often weasel words masquerading as math.

      Its all "sometimes" "maybe" "probably" "mostly"... And the problem with that is that if you treat your maybes like "is"... then you can build very specious arguments on a foundation of pseudo logic that APPEARS reasonable.

      I'm so tired of the statistics articles. Everyone of them I've seen in the last few years has been deceitful bullshit. Its not about facts. Its about what whomever paid the statistician wanted the stats to say.

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    8. Re:Shocker... by HangingChad · · Score: 2

      A segment of the population has views that are different from the average of the entire population.

      You don't get a "view" on conclusions that are supported by an overwhelming weight of facts and data. You are also not entitled to a "view" that comes from a coordinated and deliberate effort to mislead by news outlets with a political agenda.

      It boils down to the simple reality that one side of the debate thinks they're entitled to their own facts.

      --
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    9. Re:Shocker... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Bingo was his fucking name-o. Hit the nail on the head and all that.

    10. Re:Shocker... by cyberchondriac · · Score: 1

      Though I think it should be said that there are times when "weasel" words like "most" or "some" are absolutely appropriate; to not use such a qualifier is to see everything in black and white, and assume a statement is all inclusive when real life is rarely that cut and dried.

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    11. Re:Shocker... by PvtVoid · · Score: 1

      This. Furthermore, the questions are primarily policy related, so they are especially meaningless.

      I don't know about you, but I personally would like to see science applied to policy much more often than it is.

    12. Re:Shocker... by Jawnn · · Score: 2

      Its just another mastrabatory progressive poll where some collection of halfwits want to claim intellectual superiority by asking a set of cherry picked questions under controlled circomstances and then strip out all context.

      Really? Somehow, I suspect that you'd have an entirely different critique if the answers weren't such an embarrassment to those who fit into the "conservative" camp.

      The really glaring thing here, to me at least, is that the non-scientist sample is so far off from the scientist sample. Do some research into why the non-scientists believe the stupid shit they do. Come, on, less than half of all laymen believe evolution is a thing? That's scary.

    13. Re:Shocker... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Problem with policy based on science, is that funding depends upon not disputing the prevailing paradigm, even when that paradigm has been proven to be utterly false, and completely lacking any basis in objective reality.

    14. Re:Shocker... by medv4380 · · Score: 1

      I don't quite get the point of the survey. There have always been gaps between scientists and the general public and always will be just as there are gaps between any sub group and the whole and ALWAYS will be.

      It's an ad populum argument, and appeal to authority in survey form. Rather than waist time trying to construct a valid argument just state a majority of experts believe different than you. You should change to match these experts. Useful of backing up bad arguments, and to inform politicians how to pander to the largest group.

    15. Re:Shocker... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It also seems to be a causation/correlation mixup.

      A significant portion of the reason people choose their political party is based on the party's stance on these issues.

    16. Re:Shocker... by riverat1 · · Score: 2

      Ignore the data, accuse climate scientist of nefariously altering data without addressing the well documented reasons and techniques used for those alterations and you could be a Climate Science Denier.

    17. Re:Shocker... by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Exactly, the real world doesn't give a damn what your views are. It just is what it is.

    18. Re:Shocker... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A segment of the population has views that are different from the average of the entire population.

      There's also an another interesting parameter: variance. If every segment would be close to the average, the variance would be small. This study shows there's a large variance of views between the segments of the population.

    19. Re:Shocker... by tehcyder · · Score: 1
      I assume the idea is that scientists know everything about everything, and therefore if you don't agree with them you're obviously wrong.

      So if most scientists say that Taylor Swift is a better singer than Lady Gaga, if you're a Lady Gaga fan you should shoot yourself.

      Something like that.

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    20. Re:Shocker... by tehcyder · · Score: 1
      There is a big difference between "facts" and "truth".

      Saying "truth is socially constructed" is not the same as saying "facts are socially constructed".

      --
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    21. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Pretty much. What really kills it is that the questions are mostly political in nature and there is no context offered.

      If you ask someone a question about global warming they're going to have nuanced answers.

      They might say they're totally on board with the IPCC... they might say the IPCC is generally right but is exaggerating. They might say we have global warming and we're doing it but it isn't going to be bad for humanity. They might say the warming is all natural... They might say they completely agree with the global warming thing but they don't agree with the political solutions suggested to correct the issue.

      It gets complicated. And the thing is that even the scientists are going to give nuanced answers. There is a lot of conflation to support what amount to confirmation biases.

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    22. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Not really. Cite a survey you think I'd suddenly betray my intellectual integrity over. Try it.

      Your argument largely boils down to "I don't have to have intellectual integrity, be honest, or make sense because no one else is doing it."

      First off... actually there are lots of people trying to be all those things all the time. But the political elements are cheating lying shitheads and they tend to drowned out all opposition or conduct lots of things that make any kind of rational discussion impossible.

      Listen to you for example right here... I point out something that is entirely valid and your response is little more than "because some people are shills we can all be shills."

      Fine... if you do that then you can't cite science or really evidence at all then. Because that all requires a certain amount of intellectual integrity.

      If you have ANY interest in a rational, constructive, and honest discussion... then you need to put that shit away.

      If you cannot do that or refuse to do that... then that has a price. And it starts with surrendering any claim to intellectual integrity. You do that and all that is left is politics. Period.

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    23. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Hmmm... not in science. What is more a gray scale image can be built up by having a very highly detailed black and white image.

      Its just a matter of resolution. If you specify all the places where something is and all the places where something is not... and are very detailed about it then you can have a nuanced and detailed image of an issue that effectively has shades of gray in the abstract while in the details everything simply is or is not.

      Absolute blacks and whites can be used to create a nuanced picture... if you're precise.

      Thus weasel words are often used as a lazy short cut. Rather than specifying what is and is not... they'll just sort look at the general picture and eye ball it estimate the gray.

      When you build an argument that way, it is very easy to misrepresent a position if you are so inclined by building maybes on top of probabiles on top of sometimes. Then you cite the whole thing as 'this thing happens"... when in the methodology it becomes clear that actually there were so many qualifiers that a conclusion is not actually possible.

      That is by using so many qualifiers... the conclusion is not "conclusive". You don't have proof of anything. You have HINTS and suppositions and indications.

      That's not science. You can cite it as being hypothesizing if you like but you can't base anything conclusive on it.

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    24. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      ... you're implying that sub groups don't frequently have large variances?

      Again, lets talk about investment bankers and compare their views on economics with the general public. Is that going to be the same?

      Nope... big variances.

      What about police officers versus the general public? Big variances.

      what about this little community on slashdot versus the general public do you think we couldn't have lots of big variances on a lot of issues?

      of course we will. Look at how many articles we say "oh this is dumb" about when the general public is lapping it up. Now why is that? because our views on those matters are different from the general public.

      This all boils down to statistics and how it seems that most people don't know how to read them. The more I see these cited, the more I think the practice should be discouraged. Fewer statistics of any kind. The only people that should be dealing with the statistics are people that understand statistics. Very few people in the population seem to understand them.

      Effectively no one in journalism which is pathetic... And the journalists get away with it because most readers don't understand them either.

      Once you understand that the stats are only as good as the methodology... what becomes even more important than the results is a recitation of the methodology of the statistics.

      Absent that... meaningless.

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    25. Re:Shocker... by Stuarticus · · Score: 1

      betray my intellectual integrity

      That's brilliant, are you going for Funny today for a change?

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    26. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Funny like me laughing while I hack your fucking premises to pieces and then feed them one by one into a wood chipper.

      Sure. I find that to be pretty funny.

      But come now, if you want to challenge my intellectual integrity, why don't you make a falsifiable statement rather than an unsupported insult?

      Your statement is as supported as my statement that you're a literal baboon... blue ass and all.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

      You people are too easy.

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    27. Re:Shocker... by Stuarticus · · Score: 1

      My premises? I work from home.

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    28. Re:Shocker... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A segment of the population has views that are different from the average of the entire population.

      Bingo here - if you read the TFA, you would know that the pollsters weren't looking at a sub group of the general populace vs a the entire populace, they were comparing a a sub group of scientists with the general population. Which is exactly opposite of your proposition.

      Looks like the moderators didn't bother to read TFA (or TFS for that matter). Congratulations on your success at befuddling them with bullshit.

    29. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure if you're agreeing with me or contradicting me?

      The poll was comparing a subgroup to the general population. That was my assertion and that is a fact... are you saying that I am right in that and that the subgroup was actually a subgroup of a sub group or are you saying that I made some sort of error?

      Clarify please.

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    30. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      Both spellings are acceptable. Your enlightenment is my only reward.

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    31. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      ... yes but which ideology dresses itself in the mantle of science more than any other? The progressive left does.

      And is there anything scientifically compelling about socialism or marxism?

      Nope.

      So as usual... these sorts of accusations tend to be more projection than anything.

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    32. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Hmmm... at this point the parties are more tribal actually. People rarely have different politics than their parents which implies it is a matter of indoctrination. Schools and universities have also shown ability to shift the politics of students. You poll them before they go in and then poll them after they come out and there are changes. Then you poll them 10 years after they leave university and their politics tend to have reverted to what they were before they went to university. So liberals become more liberal often after going to university and then become more moderate 10 years later but still liberal. Conservatives might go into a university as conservatives and come out either as moderates or even liberals... but ten years later that tends to have worn off.

      Think of it like the way religions work. Same sort of thing. Not a lot of christian kids converting is Islam. Not a lot of islamic kids converting to Christianity... etc.

      Atheism is more a matter of becoming lapse in a religion of birth rather than actually making any sort of conscious change.

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    33. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      By this same logic there are quite a few things progressives believe that are contrary to science as well... its very easy to make a given faction look bad when you ask only the questions that put them in a bad light and don't ask any of the questions that put their opposition in the wrong light.

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    34. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Things got heated when your faction made it political and attempted to censor the opposition. If you want to have a scientific discussion again... then you need to put the politics away. I don't want to hear anything out of you on the issue that isn't scientific.

      If you make a political argument... then you're talking politics. Truth and facts don't matter in politics. its about who has the power. A man holding a gun against your head and giggling... is right and you are wrong... politically. Is broccoli sapient? If the man holding that gun against your head says so then you'd better slowly nod your head and agree.

      And if you want to have that discussion, I'll just point out that the trend line for skepticism in the US and UK has been rising steadily despite your faction spending billions in tax dollars to promote your position. You're still losing.... politically.

      Now... that's the political argument... we can have that one... talk about who can force whom to do what. I'll rally my rabble angry peasants with pitchforks and noble knights that will be interspersed through the ranks... and you can do the same thing... and we can see which side runs out of potato farmers first.... and forces the opposition's knights to retreat or be captured and ransomed off. Or we can talk science. In which case I don't want to hear anything about sides or politics or political parties or how many people support you. That's all political. Even the consensus argument is ultimately political. You're saying X people agree with you.

      So you choose. Do you want to have a political discussion or a scientific discussion? Each has a price.

      You talk politics and i don't want to hear about the science. All that matters is how many people either side can get on their side.

      If you want to talk science... then I don't want to hear anything about politics.

      it is this tendency to hypocritically shift between the two and then damn the opposition for doing the same thing that I won't tolerate. Choose.

      Politics or science? And once you've chosen... stick with it.

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    35. Re:Shocker... by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Talking about data and the well documented reasons and techniques for adjusting it is science which if you look at my history is mostly what I talk about. The GP invoked some worn out climate science denier memes and I was responding in kind.

    36. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      hmmm... the problem is that you don't see any of those things as controversal or that there are even serious challenges made to the way a lot of that is done.

      What you do is blindly take a side and denounce all opposition.

      The "denier" comment is a political term... a frankly disgusting attempt to equate people questioning some aspect of AGW theory with holocaust deniers. The argument being apparently that if anyone disagrees with you they're probably racists or nazis.

      Use the more reasonable term "skeptic"... it is more accurate in any case and is not as politically charged. You surrender all claim to being for science here if you're just going to be overtly political.

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    37. Re:Shocker... by Jawnn · · Score: 1

      Funny like me laughing while I hack your fucking premises to pieces and then feed them one by one into a wood chipper.

      Riiight. OK, then. Off the meds again, are we?

    38. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Did you have a point you wanted to make or are you content to hand wave from the peanut gallery?

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    39. Re:Shocker... by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      If by "any of those things" you mean adjustments to temperature data I haven't seen any serious challenges to the way it is done. Perhaps you could cite one or two. And I don't mean something that refers to a single or just a few stations. It needs to be something that addresses the totality of the adjustments.

      I have confidence in the adjustments because different groups using different techniques come up with essentially the same answer. For instance NOAA and BEST.

      One other thing is if you plot the raw data against the adjusted data the raw data actually shows a steeper slope than the adjusted data. Do you think if they were trying to game the data they would have done that?

      Climate science deniers that don't like being called deniers are the ones that equate the term to holocaust deniers. It's a word that has a long history and co opting it to refer only to holocaust deniers is not warranted. Now-a-days I always write it out as climate science deniers to make the distinction clear.

      Skeptic implies someone willing to change their mind upon new evidence. Also someone who is not disposed to infer dishonest intent when there is no real evidence of it. A climate science denier often is ideologically unable to accept the implied solutions to the issue and so gins up a conspiracy to explain why the science is against them.

      If there's a conspiracy then it's got to be the biggest and longest running conspriracy of all time. It had to have been running for over 50 years and involve governments and scientists around the world. If they're that good you might as well give up.

    40. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      A few stations covers the entire poles though... and it is on the poles that nearly all the ground station warming is cited. If you actually gray out all the spaces on these heat maps that don't have stations in them... practically all the red areas vanish entirely... the red areas are often in places where there aren't any stations at all. The heat is imposed by models in many cases without any actual empirical evidence of it.

      What is more, we're talking about a fraction of a degree over all using data sources that are often not even accurate to the degree. This is especially true historically. And it must be kept in mind that these stations were put in place and are currently maintained mostly to assess local weather and not fractional changes in global temperature.

      Can you explain for example how climate data from these weather stations doesn't fall under the heading of "Spurious digits"?
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      It is my understanding that you can't cite a higher level of precision in your data than the precision of the initial data.

      Are you claiming that your ground weather stations are each accurate and calibrated to within a fraction of a degree?... and historically so... going back how many ever years?

      I think at the very least you're vastly overstating your precision. And if you can't cite figures within a fraction of a degree... can you even show warming? The figure currently was something like .4~.5 degrees?

      Is your data even accurate to a degree much less a tenth of one?

      Anyone that has had a few thermometers knows that it is very common for them to give slightly different readings. I have on that is a full 5 degrees off from the other one. I take any figure it cites and subtract 5 degrees to get a more likely figure.

      As to your use of the term "denier" this term is an attempt to equate skeptics with holocaust deniers. You're calling people that disagree with you racists or nazis. I don't appreciate it. Either use a less charged term or I'm going to be unable to treat you as anything other than a political creature. And if you do that, the science discussion ends and I'm just going to talk politics with you. On a purely political level, the percentage of the US and UK population that are skeptical is increasing. We're winning the political struggle. You are losing political credibility. Is that the discussion you want to have? If not... no more political arguments out of you. I will not permit you to use political arguments against me and then expect me to defend myself with science. I will answer politics for politics. Only when you talk science will I respond with science.

      As to changing minds... you've shown no ability to change your mind so you can't claim any superiority there.

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    41. Re:Shocker... by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      It is my understanding that you can't cite a higher level of precision in your data than the precision of the initial data.

      When you combine a large number of measurements you can easily cite higher precision than the measurement itself. The easiest example of this is baseball batting averages. The measurement is either a 1 or 0, you either get a hit or you don't but batting averages are commonly reported to 3 decimal places and a change of 1/100th in a batting average is pretty significant.

      Anyone that has had a few thermometers knows that it is very common for them to give slightly different readings. I have on that is a full 5 degrees off from the other one. I take any figure it cites and subtract 5 degrees to get a more likely figure.

      I think it's likely that thermometers used for meteorology are better calibrated than your home thermometers. Accurate thermometers have been available for more than 200 years. What's more important than the absolute accuracy is the repeatable accuracy. If a thermometer always gives the same reading for a given temperature the data is usable for studying how temperatures are changing over time even if it's a bit off in the absolute accuracy.

      As to your use of the term "denier" this term is an attempt to equate skeptics with holocaust deniers.

      Not by me. As I said I believe equating climate science deniers with holocaust deniers is an attempt by climate science deniers to redefine the word "denier". If climate science deniers showed as much skepticism for science that appears to support their positions as they do for main stream climate science I'd be more willing to call them skeptics but they usually don't.

      You're side may be temporarily winning the political battle but that doesn't matter one bit to the science. The objective reality that science studies will continue to do what it does regardless of any political struggles. As objective observations pile up they continue to mostly support the reality that the Earth is warming due to anthropogenic causes. You can try to ignore that reality but sooner or later it will become impossible to do so.

      I have no problem changing my mind once I see real science that contradicts the current science. In the mean time I have a hard time believing that thousand of scientists worldwide would be able to maintain a conspiracy for decades that distorts the science for political reasons.

    42. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      As to significant digits, I'm sure you're right... I think my biggest problem is the idea of turning the entire data set into one number... I have a great suspecion of over simplification. I've seen that go horribly wrong in many situations.

      An example you might be aware of was the 2008 credit crunch. Part of the issue there was that the banks had abstracted ALL risk in an investment to a single number. They had an equation that you'd key all the variables into and it would output a risk number.

      Anyway... to get that figure required a lot of assumptions... certain variables and market properties were assumed to be a given... for example they assumed the market would always go up. Over time it does of course... or at least has always done so. However... whether your investments can survive the system crashing for a significant duration before recovering is another matter.

      So that is just a general bias I have. I don't trust that sort of reduction. I'm struggling to think of any instance that I know really well where it didn't turn out to be very foolish.

      As to weather instruments being better calibrated... not historically. Keep in mind they were for local weather and part of the reason they struck so many stations of the list was that they were getting temperature readings from certain stations that they didn't trust so they scrapped the station entirely.

      Even in modern times I wouldn't be surprised if the stations are off by a degree one way or the other. It doesn't matter for the actual use of the station if it is off a degree. They wouldn't notice or care. If it says it's 86 degrees instead of 85 or 87... who's going to know or care?

      Only the climate scientists are going to care about that and that's not why those stations were installed or why they're maintained.

      As to denier. You either stop using that term or you're outing yourself as someone that has only interest in the political argument.

      It would be like me referring to warmists as "grand wizards" or something. If you'll let me identify you with the KKK then I'll accept your attempt to associate me with Nazis. Otherwise I reject the term as a pathetic political ploy and any attempt to maintain the terminology will be taken as a declaration that you want to play political games. At that point, I'm 100 percent politics with you and will ignore any scientific argument utterly.

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    43. Re:Shocker... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As to denier. You either stop using that term or you're outing yourself as someone that has only interest in the political argument.

      Except that here on /. calling you a denier has a completely different meaning. You deny your own words so often, that the term has taken on a new meaning in this context.

      Don't look at the generalization, look at the term in context.

      It's You, It's You, Only You Well, I know what I want and I'm sure I can get it But It's You, It's You, Only You Well, I know what I want and I'm sure I can get it I'm loosing my heart for you And I'm prepared to lose my life Ermmmm...

    44. Re:Shocker... by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I think my biggest problem is the idea of turning the entire data set into one number...

      I don't think that anyone expects that number to be exactly correct. The calculation has to be weighted by area as some areas have much different station densities than others (Europe vs. Siberia for example). There are some different techniques used for doing that. But if the number is derived consistently for each iteration it should give a reasonable indication of how temperature is changing over time which after all is what we really care about the most.

      I'm not sure what assumptions you think go into deriving a worldwide temperature. It's a pretty mechanical thing to calculate once you get the math set up.

      Even in modern times I wouldn't be surprised if the stations are off by a degree one way or the other. It doesn't matter for the actual use of the station if it is off a degree. They wouldn't notice or care. If it says it's 86 degrees instead of 85 or 87... who's going to know or care?

      As I said for climate purposes the repeatable accuracy is more important than the absolute accuracy. Most liquid based thermometers (mercury or alcohol) are very good at repeatable accuracy even if their calibration is a bit off. When you care more about the rate of change then repeatable accuracy is more important than absolute accuracy.

      You're the one who keeps bringing up Nazis. It's not something I equate climate science deniers with. And if you look at my posting history I think you'll find it's not a term I use a lot unless the subject was already a part of the conversation. I'll admit that my snarky reply to the OP on this thread was the first to bring it up but as I said I was just responding in kind.

    45. Re:Shocker... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Wrong. That's what the point of the term "Denier" was... it was a term cooked up by political elements.... not scientists. You use it, and you're using their term which they cooked up for their purposes.

      So you either use a non-political term or you're having a scientific discussion.

      Choose what matters more to you? Politics or science?

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  4. One of these is not like the others. by Iamthecheese · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The question of anthropomorphic global warming and evolution can be studied and understood on a factual basis as can whether vaccines help. Whether vaccines should be required is not a question for science to answer. The summary conflates matters of fact and matters of judgement.

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    1. Re:One of these is not like the others. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      +1 for insightful pedant pointing out statistically relevant disconnect.

    2. Re:One of these is not like the others. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That mistake is very common. It turns out that humans have a hard time distinguishing their own opinions from facts. The stronger they feel about the opinion, the harder it is for them to see it as anything other than a fact.

      Some people are particularly good at this. And the ability can be trained (formal study of Philosophy is one way). But this problem will always be there, especially for the majority.

    3. Re:One of these is not like the others. by Translation+Error · · Score: 5, Funny

      Please don't call it anthropomorphic global warming. It doesn't like it when you do that. I believe the term you were looking for is anthropogenic.

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    4. Re:One of these is not like the others. by ChromeAeonium · · Score: 1

      Perhaps, but it is certainty a topic for scientists to make very strong recommendations about, recommendations that good judgement says policy makers should listen to.

  5. Superstition and mysticism by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What I see is people turning more and more away from learning, actual knowledge, and truth, and turning back towards religion, superstition, mysticism, and other forms of wilful ignorance. Many people also seem to be turning away from technology because it's 'too complicated' for them, apparently. It all seems to be revolving around a common theme of people's brains being overloaded by modern life, and wanting to turn back to simpler things. It's almost as if people's brains, which on a geologic time scale aren't very far removed at all from a hunter-gatherer existence, just can't keep up with how fast science, technology, and even modern society are developing, and is just flat-out starting to reject it.

    Posted as Anonynmous Coward, because my brain is tired today, and I don't feel up to dealing with an Inbox full of hateful comments for daring to express my opinions on this subject.

    1. Re:Superstition and mysticism by tomhath · · Score: 3, Interesting

      What I see is people turning more and more away from learning, actual knowledge, and truth, and turning back towards religion

      Where do you see that? Church membership per capita is way down in the US.

      Also keep in mind the the Pew Trust is notoriously liberal, especially related to environmental issues. It isn't a surprise that their survey pushes their agenda. They're also known for sending their own employees (and having them claim to be from the general public) to attend congressional hearings so it appears there's more grass root support for their causes than there actually is.

    2. Re:Superstition and mysticism by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sure thing, go right ahead and dismiss something just because you don't like it's source. I've barely even heard of this 'Pew Trust', whoever the hell they are, I have no idea what they do and do not stand for, and yet I've formed my own opinions on the subject based on the last decade or so of what's in the news.

  6. The Truth by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The truth and facts have always had a liberal bias.

    The 0.1% have doe a good job of getting the 99.9% that sides with them on issues to think that it's about them (the 99.9%) when it's really about the 0.1%.

  7. That is not necessarily true by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Acceptance of the theory of natural selection is pretty much low all over the US. Beside educator and scientist, pretty much the majority of people in the US refuse to accept the theory. You may find variance for many subject, but they are usually not as crass as this.

    1. Re:That is not necessarily true by cyberchondriac · · Score: 1

      It must depend on what part of the country you live in, because most people I've ever known accept it.

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    2. Re:That is not necessarily true by Karmashock · · Score: 2

      The only significant group that doesn't approve of it are evangelical creationists and they're not numerous enough make that claim.

      What is more the survey is conflating POLITICAL positions with scientific positions. What someone will "say" on a survey to show political affliation is not the same thing as "what I ACTUALLY believe".

      The accuracy of these surveys is undermined by a long list of issues.

      Sample selection. Sample size. Question phrasing. Whether people LIE to pollers... look election polls prior to the election. They very rarely match up with the actual election. Why is that?

      Its very hard to get accurate polling on politically charged issues.

      This is why amongst other things we have secret ballots. Why is that? Think about it. People would feel pressured to vote otherwise if they were being personally identified by anyone when they voted. And the pollster is doing that... even if only the person collecting the data sees it.

      This is why people at the DMV ask people in person if they want to sign up for organ donations. The government has figured out that if you ask people at that moment they're more inclined to say yes. Where as if people just fill out a form and hand it in... they don't check that box as often.

      Think about that.

      This all biases the results.

      On issues of climate change... there are so many different positions on that... whether you're generally pro or anti... there is a lot of nuance... in science and outside of it. To abstract it all to one question with a yes or no answer is an over simplification of what are complicated questions.

      The questions being asked are also cherry picked to put progressives in the best possible light. There are quite a few issues progressives believe in that are not backed by science. We could shift the questions to those issues and they'd likely do poorly by the same standard.

      The obvious intention of what is effectively an editorial poll is to put progressives in a good light.

      I'd like to know who paid for this poll... it wouldn't surprise me if the poll were designed and paid for by a lobbying group. Pew conducted the poll... sure... but you can control the outcome if you control the methodology.

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    3. Re:That is not necessarily true by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      The only significant group that doesn't approve of it are evangelical creationists and they're not numerous enough make that claim.

      What is more the survey is conflating POLITICAL positions with scientific positions. What someone will "say" on a survey to show political affliation is not the same thing as "what I ACTUALLY believe".

      The accuracy of these surveys is undermined by a long list of issues.

      Sample selection. Sample size. Question phrasing. Whether people LIE to pollers... look election polls prior to the election. They very rarely match up with the actual election. Why is that?

      Its very hard to get accurate polling on politically charged issues.

      This is why amongst other things we have secret ballots. Why is that? Think about it. People would feel pressured to vote otherwise if they were being personally identified by anyone when they voted. And the pollster is doing that... even if only the person collecting the data sees it.

      This is why people at the DMV ask people in person if they want to sign up for organ donations. The government has figured out that if you ask people at that moment they're more inclined to say yes. Where as if people just fill out a form and hand it in... they don't check that box as often.

      Think about that.

      This all biases the results.

      On issues of climate change... there are so many different positions on that... whether you're generally pro or anti... there is a lot of nuance... in science and outside of it. To abstract it all to one question with a yes or no answer is an over simplification of what are complicated questions.

      The questions being asked are also cherry picked to put progressives in the best possible light. There are quite a few issues progressives believe in that are not backed by science. We could shift the questions to those issues and they'd likely do poorly by the same standard.

      The obvious intention of what is effectively an editorial poll is to put progressives in a good light.

      I'd like to know who paid for this poll... it wouldn't surprise me if the poll were designed and paid for by a lobbying group. Pew conducted the poll... sure... but you can control the outcome if you control the methodology.

      1) Pewe polls are paid for by the Pew Trust, whose mission is "Improving public policy, informing the public, and invigorating civic life" so, I imagine for you that's pretty far left.
      2) It's not as if you could read the methodology and find out what they did wrong. Oh wait, http://www.pewresearch.org/top...
      3) So, we see once again, that whenever something appears on the internet which may be interpreted as critical of the right, rightwingers will appear en masse to post comments demonstrating that it is correct. In this case, that rightwing opinions do not tend to be based on study of the facts involved, rather they are formed a priori and a bunch of hypothetical arguments as to why the opposing argument might not be true are produced in support. qed.

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    4. Re:That is not necessarily true by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...look election polls prior to the election. They very rarely match up with the actual election. Why is that?

      Why is that? Because you made it up, you fucking retard.

      The truth is polls are rarely wrong. for national elections.

      You constantly pepper your arguments with made up shit. I guess you think that you think your long bullshit posts won't be examined by anyone. Well, this is the internet, and you're not the only one with no life who can spend all day posting on /.

    5. Re:That is not necessarily true by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      1. I didn't claim they were left wing. I claimed the poll was a progressive puff piece.

      2. If you read their discussion on the methodology of that poll, they actually fucking say what I said in my post to a large extent about the findings not being indicative of a scientific position.

      3. As to right versus left... are you implying that progressives don't complain when hit pieces are published about them? Who do you think you're fooling besides yourself?

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    6. Re:That is not necessarily true by Karmashock · · Score: 1
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    7. Re:That is not necessarily true by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      1. I didn't claim they were left wing. I claimed the poll was a progressive puff piece.

      2. If you read their discussion on the methodology of that poll, they actually fucking say what I said in my post to a large extent about the findings not being indicative of a scientific position.

      3. As to right versus left... are you implying that progressives don't complain when hit pieces are published about them? Who do you think you're fooling besides yourself?

      "I'd like to know who paid for this poll... it wouldn't surprise me if the poll were designed and paid for by a lobbying group. Pew conducted the poll... sure... but you can control the outcome if you control the methodology."
      "1) Pewe [my typo] polls are paid for by the Pew Trust, whose mission is "Improving public policy, informing the public, and invigorating civic life" so, I imagine for you that's pretty far left."
      "Its very hard to get accurate polling on politically charged issues. This is why amongst other things we have secret ballots. Why is that? Think about it. People would feel pressured to vote otherwise if they were being personally identified by anyone when they voted. And the pollster is doing that... even if only the person collecting the data sees it. This is why people at the DMV ask people in person if they want to sign up for organ donations. The government has figured out that if you ask people at that moment they're more inclined to say yes. Where as if people just fill out a form and hand it in... they don't check that box as often. Think about that. This all biases the results. On issues of climate change... there are so many different positions on that... whether you're generally pro or anti... there is a lot of nuance... in science and outside of it. To abstract it all to one question with a yes or no answer is an over simplification of what are complicated questions. The questions being asked are also cherry picked to put progressives in the best possible light. There are quite a few issues progressives believe in that are not backed by science. We could shift the questions to those issues and they'd likely do poorly by the same standard. The obvious intention of what is effectively an editorial poll is to put progressives in a good light."
      "http://www.pewresearch.org/top... [pewresearch.org]"
      sorry, but you have to point out exactly what part of that methodology, and/or the discussion of difficulties of accuracy, and all the things you pulled out of your hinders in your OP actually act to "bias" the survey in terms of the findings, i.e. that people's belief in science depends on how closely it matches their a priori beliefs. You suggest that people will fudge the truth, say, to make themselves look better; how exactly does that relate to liberals saying they agree with science regarding AGW more often than conservatives do? Are you saying the liberals are pretending they agree when they don't, and the conservatives are pretending they don't when they do? How exactly does is there anything at all resembling evidence behind all this musing?
      "In this case, that rightwing opinions do not tend to be based on study of the facts involved, rather they are formed a priori and a bunch of hypothetical arguments as to why the opposing argument might not be true are produced in support"
      " As to right versus left... are you implying that progressives don't complain when hit pieces are published about them? Who do you think you're fooling besides yourself?"
      No, I'm saying the outstanding thing about your "skepticism" is that it emanates from wilful ignorance, literally; you could have found out the answers to your questions in seconds, but you didn't care to, as your arguments work better with innuendos based on things you dredge up from your pure dark imagination. FUD on the teacup scale. I provide answers to the questions you ask, and you decide that just proves that you were right the whole time. A posteriori justifying your conclusions, in that you pulled them out of your posterior.

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    8. Re:That is not necessarily true by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Structure your comments better... decoding your babble isn't worth my time.

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    9. Re:That is not necessarily true by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Structure your comments better... decoding your babble isn't worth my time.

      I don't want to talk to you no more, you empty-headed animal food trough wiper! I fart in your general direction! Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries! Now go away, before I taunt you a second time!

      --
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    10. Re:That is not necessarily true by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Seriously? Did you actually read the references you posted? Most of those links refer to the 2015 election IN THE FUCKING UK.

      ALL of those links are ANECDOTAL. You know what "anecdotal" means, right? I guess maybe you don't.

      Shut up. Just close your stupid mouth. Sit down. And don't speak again until addressed. You're an idiot. It has been officially noticed.

      You'd like that, wouldn't you. BUT I AM BINGO!!! I WILL ALWAYS FIGHT THE TIDE OF FECES EMANATING FROM YOUR CORNHOLE!

      Just like Holmes and Moriarty, we are inexorably tied together!

    11. Re:That is not necessarily true by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      So apparently you're a legit retard?

      Okay then... sorry for upsetting you. Enjoy your pudding.

      Explanation for people that aren't drooling all over themselves:

      That polling data in relation to elections has problems has been well known. Exit polls especially are very unreliable. You ask someone that just voted how they voted and they often don't feel comfortable answering honestly.

      papers have been written about and its a well known element of polling. As to the ease with which opinion polls can be biased by phrasing of questions is also very well known.

      There are other issues like who even answers the polls. Many polls have fewer than 5 percent actually consent to have the poll taken which means that 95 percent are self selecting out of the polling. That means the sample is not random.

      The issues are many and well known to anyone with any kind of education.

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    12. Re:That is not necessarily true by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Your inability to make a coherent argument is noted... that leads to an automatic concession by default.

      Your concession is accepted.

      Take fewer drugs the next time you post and you'll likely do better.

      Good day, sir.

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    13. Re:That is not necessarily true by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Your inability to make a coherent argument is noted... that leads to an automatic concession by default.

      Your concession is accepted.

      Take fewer drugs the next time you post and you'll likely do better.

      Good day, sir.

      We leave you to your own devices, for nothing properly suits you except hypocrisy, flattery, and lies. Thou reeky rump-fed malt-worm!

      --
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    14. Re:That is not necessarily true by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That polling data in relation to elections has problems has been well known.

      What are these problems? Apparently they're not significant enough to affect the polls' accuracy. Which is your claim. Which is patently false.

      Exit polls especially are very unreliable.

      Uh huh. See, the thing is you weren't talking about exit polls: "...look election polls prior to the election. They very rarely match up with the actual election. Why is that?" Are you so retarded that you don't know that polls taken prior to an election aren't exit polls? I guess you just might actually be that retarded.

      As to the ease with which opinion polls can be biased by phrasing of questions is also very well known.

      Now you want to talk about opinion polls. Your claim was about ELECTION POLLS you dumbass. How many more times are you going to attempt to move the goalposts in this conversation?

      Many polls have fewer than 5 percent actually consent to have the poll taken which means that 95 percent are self selecting out of the polling. That means the sample is not random.

      That statement displays so much ignorance of statistics, I'm just going to let it stand on it's own. What a fucking ignorant moron you are.

    15. Re:That is not necessarily true by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      I cited many examples of people talking about poll inaccuracy. And really the entire issue is common knowledge. I'm not going to debate whether or not the Sun is hot with you. I've already cited more than I needed to cite.

      As to opinion polls, actually the topic is about Pew Opinion poll. Kill yourself. No really. Put down the keyboard. Get up. And stop wasting oxygen.

      I'll continue answering questions for posterity but we should assume that the poster has done the honorable thing and committed suicide.

      As to ignorance regarding poll participation... You really did zero research in your short life didn't you?

      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

      What you can see there is that according to Pew... the same organization that did this poll that created this topic says... is that the response rate in 2012 was NINE PERCENT of people contacted. And from the previous years we can see a clear trend line DOWN.

      Now when only 9 percent even respond to the call and that 9 percent is not randomly selected but in fact SELF selects that could very easily bias the results.

      If someone has an opinion but doesn't want to talk to you for some reason then you won't record their opinion.

      The world is better place now that you're gone. There is one less moron. :D

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    16. Re:That is not necessarily true by SpankiMonki · · Score: 1

      I cited many examples of people talking about poll inaccuracy.

      I don't give the smallest fuck over your many irrelevant citations. I'm simply telling you that your claim about how election polls "very rarely match up with the actual election" is complete horseshit.

      Election polls in the US have a long track record of accuracy going back DECADES. The fact that you refuse to recognize this - even when you're pimp-slapped with actual data - just shows how utterly out of touch you are with reality.

      As to opinion polls, actually the topic is about Pew Opinion poll.

      No you pinhead, the topic at hand is your statement:

      ...look election polls prior to the election. They very rarely match up with the actual election. Why is that?

      Why do you have to constantly be reminded of your dimwitted remark? I guess if I were you, I would want to forget about it too. After all, the only thing dumber than saying it would be defending it...oh wait.

      Kill yourself. No really. Put down the keyboard. Get up. And stop wasting oxygen.

      What a childish little twat you are.

      As to ignorance regarding poll participation... You really did zero research in your short life didn't you?

      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

      Yes, poll response rates are falling. Yes, declining rates can introduce selection bias. I guess it's a good thing I didn't claim otherwise.

      But declining response rates don't automatically cause a poll to be inaccurate. How do I know that? Because the SECOND FUCKING PARAGRAPH of your huffpo article reads:

      "Yet the study also finds evidence that on most of the wide variety of measures tested, the declining response rates alone are not causing surveys to yield inaccurate results."

      Talk about doing ZERO research. Protip: read through an article BEFORE claiming it supports your position.

      What a pitiful display. Your ability to embarrass yourself with a constant flow of ignorant, self-contradictory statements is simply breathtaking. And your multiple sorry ass attempts to move the discussion away from your original statement isn't going well for you. Apparently you are oblivious to that fact.

      The world is better place now that you're gone. There is one less moron. :D

      I'm not going anywhere, nimrod. I've got lots of free time to help you continue to humiliate yourself.

    17. Re:That is not necessarily true by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      1. I didn't claim they were left wing. I claimed the poll was a progressive puff piece.

      What's the difference?

    18. Re:That is not necessarily true by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Are you channeling more of your stupidity from beyond the grave? Alright... I'll link hands with some people and I'll invite you into our circle, spirit... ... Ooooommm.... *meditates on your idioicy* :p

      If you don't care about my citations then I'm not going to care about yours either. Okay... moving forward where all citations are invalid... this should be fun!

      As to poll response rates not making them less accurate... it does make them less precise though. It has to increase your margin of error pretty dramatically when your total sample size is small and then you're introducing 91% non response rates on top of that. Can you even claim one significant digit at that point?

      And lets talk further about how these are telephone polls and they don't poll cellphones. Do you want to know the last time I owned a land line phone? NEVER. I've never had one. I got a cellphone as a kid and have kept the same number ever since. I don't see the point in landlines... people that want them... that's fine... I won't judge but I'll probably never have one. And that's a demographic and socio economic figure as well. Because the people that tend to have land lines tend to be older or richer. I personally do quite well but i'm younger. I grew up with a cell phone. I'm happy with it. And because of that, telephone polls don't touch me.

      The thing is that in these opinion polls, you have no way of determining empirically how accurate any of it is.. there's no way to actually know. So any of a billion things could bias a result and who is to say?

      You're basically using sloppy telephone statistics as a device to create the news story you want. And I'm supposed to respect any of it? Sorry... I'm not one of the peasants your lot bamboozles with this stupidity.

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    19. Re:That is not necessarily true by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Person/organization X is Y Ideology

      VS

      Specific Poll R is biased to support Y ideology.

      Is this not obvious?

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    20. Re:That is not necessarily true by SpankiMonki · · Score: 1

      Are you channeling more of your stupidity from beyond the grave? Alright... I'll link hands with some people and I'll invite you into our circle, spirit... ... Ooooommm.... *meditates on your idioicy* :p

      First you'll have to find some people who as out of touch with reality as you are. You can't make a circle when you're alone.

      As to poll response rates not making them less accurate... it does make them less precise though.

      You've completely lost it. Synonyms...have you heard of them?

      But go ahead and waste more time trying to split hairs with semantics. Poll response rates aren't the issue here. The track record of election polls is what's under debate. Since you are yet again trying to divert attention away from your initial position, let me remind you of it ONE MORE TIME:

      "...look election polls prior to the election. They very rarely match up with the actual election. Why is that?"

      Why do you continually try to avoid addressing this claim directly? Oh yeah, it's an indefensible position.

      And lets talk further about how these are telephone polls and they don't poll cellphones.

      O boy, can we?!? I SO want to talk further about something that has zip zilch squat to do with your original position. Your obvious and clumsy attempts at misdirection are becoming tiresome.

      Do you want to know the last time I owned a land line phone?

      No.

      And I'm supposed to respect any of it? Sorry... I'm not one of the peasants your lot bamboozles with this stupidity.

      The only thing people around here expect you to respect are facts. Here's a fun fact: Gallup has successfully predicted the results of 17 of the last 20 presidential elections. Pew has a similar track record. If you want to continue to argue that an 85% success rate equals "very rarely" matching up "with the actual election", I'm here for you. I am more than happy for you to continue to embarrass yourself in front of anyone reading this exchange.

    21. Re:That is not necessarily true by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      As to circles... sure I can... right hand holds the left... no? :D

      As to the notion that you can retain accuracy and precision with 9 percent response rates, ignoring people that only have cellphones, really just a tediously long list of reasons you're wrong... believe what you like. They can make up whatever they want with that system and dupes like you will drop to their knees,close their eyes, and suck their rewards out of a "hose"...

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    22. Re:That is not necessarily true by SpankiMonki · · Score: 1

      As to the notion that you can retain accuracy with 9 percent response rates [blah blah blah]...

      What a sad sad person your are. I don't have any notions about accuracy/response rates.

      What I do have is polling DATA from every fucking national election since 1936. You claim election polls "very rarely match up with the actual election". I show you a 85% success rate, and you still cling to your ridiculous position.

      I guess the fact that conducting polls is an activity of *every* *single* *election* campaign (that can afford them) in the US and elsewhere escapes you. All these politicians spending campaign resources conducting polls are just fooling themselves, because, according to you, polls are worthless.

      In your next response, you might consider avoiding yet another attempt at misdirection. Seriously. Using this tactic once is bad enough. Using it over and over and over just makes you look even more brainless.

      But hey, continue dancing around in a circle with one hand clasped to the other. Isn't that what retards do?

    23. Re:That is not necessarily true by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Really... and all the election polls were accurate?
      http://www.yourememberthat.com...

      Election polls are frequently wrong. The republicans in 2012 thought they were going to win as I remember.

      There is so much evidence that you're choking on stupidity:
      http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

      Your argument would require that the polls all agree with each other... but they don't. Every election cycle we have polls that are all over the place.

      Are some of them going to be right? Sure... will a shotgun hit a target with some pellets?... easy to do when you blast out bird shot.

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    24. Re:That is not necessarily true by SpankiMonki · · Score: 1

      Really... and all the election polls were accurate? http://www.yourememberthat.com...

      Nobody said ALL the election polls were accurate. YOU are the one who said:

      "...look election polls prior to the election. They very rarely match up with the actual election. Why is that?"

      How many times are you going to point to a SINGLE instance where the polls were wrong? Do you honestly think anyone reading this exchange is is as retarded as you are? The fact is, polls very rarely get elections results wrong. Exactly the opposite of your unbelievably ignorant claim.

      Election polls are frequently wrong.

      What the fuck does "frequently" mean? Your position is that polls "very rarely match up with the actual election." FACTS disagree with you.

      The republicans in 2012 thought they were going to win as I remember.

      What the Republicans thought in 2012 has shit to do with the historic accuracy of polls. That Gallup got it wrong in the 2012 presidential election doesn't change the fact that Gallup got it right 85% of the time.

      There is so much evidence that you're choking on stupidity: http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

      I thought you eschewed the validity of citations. Are you sure you want to bring them back into the argument? Why don't you show me some historical data confirming polls "very rarely match up with the actual election."

      Your argument would require that the polls all agree with each other... but they don't.

      Uh, yeah, more often than not they do. Your argument is that polls are rarely accurate. I have provided DATA nullifying your claim. The best you can do is shit out cherry-picked data.

      Continue to make a fool out of yourself. I'd say it's giving me a hard-on, but homo-eroticism is your specialty.

    25. Re:That is not necessarily true by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The republicans in 2012 thought they were going to win as I remember

      That appears to be a big part of your problem in this discussion. Better stop relying on your (faulty) memory and take a look at actual data.

    26. Re:That is not necessarily true by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Is this not obvious?

      No. No it isn't obvious. Perhaps to someone who views reality through ideological lenses, but to the rest of us...not so much.

    27. Re:That is not necessarily true by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As to circles... sure I can... right hand holds the left... no?

      No. In your case, your right hand holds the dick of the fag on your right. It may eventually form a circle if you have enough fags, and the last one is willing to grab your dick. If he can find it. Tweezers might be necessary. Odds are not in your favor.

  8. Alarming Freedom by OhPlz · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Isn't that kind of the point of living in a free country? We're all entitled to our own beliefs. Why is it "alarming" or "even worse" that one group doesn't agree with another on a particular topic?

    1. Re:Alarming Freedom by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's called a "push poll". It's a fancy way of asking questions to make some people seem stupid. It's grown-up name calling. That's all.

    2. Re:Alarming Freedom by Ionized · · Score: 4, Insightful

      because the topics mentioned aren't opinions, they are facts - there is no room for someone to have an opinion on whether "the Earth is getting warmer mostly due to human activity" for instance. Either it is, or it isn't, and facts overwhelmingly point to yes. By denying those facts we are totally fucking ourselves in the ass, pardon my french.

    3. Re:Alarming Freedom by praxis · · Score: 5, Insightful

      They are free to believe what they want, but they are not free to consider their beliefs as factual as actual facts.

    4. Re:Alarming Freedom by presidenteloco · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It's not alarming for people to have different opinions.

      What IS alarming is that scientific peer-reviewed information and the expertise of those who have had the intelligence and focus to get top-level credentials in a field of study is not valued higher than the opinion of those who have only casually looked into a matter without any rigour.

      I'm sorry, but everyone's opinion, on some specialized factual question amenable to scientific investigation, is not of equal worth.

      It is basic civility to listen to everyone's opinion. But opinions should be weighed rationally, according the opinion-stater's probable level of knowledge, demonstrated ability to reason, and freedom from self-interest on the particular topic.

      --

      Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
    5. Re:Alarming Freedom by known_coward_69 · · Score: 1

      lots of settled science has been debunked over the decades

    6. Re:Alarming Freedom by sexconker · · Score: 0

      because the topics mentioned aren't opinions, they are facts - there is no room for someone to have an opinion on whether "the Earth is getting warmer mostly due to human activity" for instance. Either it is, or it isn't, and facts overwhelmingly point to yes.

      It isn't.

    7. Re:Alarming Freedom by sycodon · · Score: 2

      Fortunately, when it comes to public policy, everyone's opinion is of equal worth.

      --
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    8. Re:Alarming Freedom by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      [citations needed]

    9. Re:Alarming Freedom by Stem_Cell_Brad · · Score: 2

      Good points. It goes beyond basic civility, though. It is a total waste to disregard the experts, in this case scientists. They are being paid largely by the gov't to develop knowledge and understanding. But somehow, when that knowledge presents an inconvenience, it gets attacked and denied. Weak.

    10. Re:Alarming Freedom by cbeaudry · · Score: 2

      "the Earth is getting warmer mostly due to human activity"

      I think you don't quite understand the subject.

      Let me break it down for you.

      - The earth is getting warmer... Fact (well, depends on the period you look at and time scale... but generaly yes)
      - How much warmer... Debatable (statistical error for "global average temperature anomalies" are LARGE)
      - Are humans responsible by way of CO2... Somewhat and debatable (Climate sensitivity from a double of CO2 is constantly being revised, currently at around less than 1C)
      - How much warming exactly are we talking about?
                  - We are talking about 0.85c over the last 100 years (per the IPCC)
                  - CO2 has only started affecting our climate since the late 70s (per the IPCC)
                  - Since the late 70s temperature average increase is only in the range of about 0.5c
                  - Humans are responsible for little more than half of that warming by way of CO2 (per the IPCC)
                  - Half of 0.5c is 0.25c

      So in FACT if we take all of those numbers (from the official scientific alarmist sources), humans are only responsible for about 0.25c increase over the last 40-50 years, 20 of those years (more like 18.5) where it has been statistically stable (for now, of course.)

      So you see, the statement above, is utterly meaningless without context.

      Go back and ask the question:
      1. Is it alarming that temperatures over the last century have increased by 0.25c (as far as we know FOR NOW) directly because of human activity?

      Also... you still need to establish that 0.25c does and or will affect our global climate and is linked to all the non statisticaly significant events that the media has tried to tie it to.

      You are aware that there has not been an increase in extreme weather, hurricains, precipitation, tornados, droughts or other... right?

    11. Re:Alarming Freedom by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      For example, Galen's miasma theory of disease (it was caused by "bad air") was overturned by the germ theory which said disease spread by direct contact or via water/food supply. Airborne spread of disease (eg viruses) was then totally ignored into the 30s because it was too similar to the debunked miasma theory. Although there were some stirrings about airborne spread from the 1930s-1960s, these were widely discounted and did not affect public policy. The predictions of eradicating measles in 1967 were based on the idea that airborne spread was rare or nonexistent. Here is an interesting paper on the history, written by the chief epidemiologist of the CDC at the time measles vaccines were introduced:

      During the past 15 years, major programs have been launched against three so-called contagious diseases: smallpox, measles, and rubella. The results in terms of achievement of expected goals have varied in the extreme.
      [,,,]
      In the present paper I will endeavor 1. To recall the prevailing attitudes among epidemiologists at the time these programs were started; 2. to reexamine
      the scientific validity of some of the theories that we so blithely accepted at the time; and 3. to appraise what we think we have learned from our vivid experiences during the past 15 years.

      http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=6939399

    12. Re:Alarming Freedom by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Unless they are your 'facts'? Am I right?

    13. Re:Alarming Freedom by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      By people who take science very seriously, not by low-info opinion holders.

    14. Re:Alarming Freedom by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They are not? Is not "considering a belief to be as factual as actual fact" not a belief? If someone has the right to believe in the flying spaghetti monster, how can they exercise that right while not thinking that it is factually true? The two are one and the same.

      A person can think whatever they want. It even happens to be impossible to deny that right, because we currently lack any means to know what a person is thinking if they choose not to express it. But fortunately we go so far as to legally protect their rights to express their thoughts, no matter how factually false those thoughts might be.

      If you're thinking about things like fraud being illegal, fraud presupposes malicious intent; requiring that the assailant is knowingly and wilfully disseminating false information about a subject to the detriment of those who choose to listen. It has nothing to do with belief.

      As long as your thoughts are you own, you are truly free to believe whatever you want. Those beliefs might lead to your own demise (if you believe that you can fly, for example), but you are still free to do so.

    15. Re:Alarming Freedom by ChromeAeonium · · Score: 2

      And also, those people vote and act within society. When denying climate change becomes a politically beneficial platform, that's a problem. When teaching the basic biological facts of evolution becomes controversial, that's a problem. When vaccine preventable diseases start to make a resurgence because people think vaccines are dangerous, that's a problem. I work in plant science, and I can't help but mention that the very first thing in the survey relates to the gap in acceptance of genetically engineered crops...don't tell me that hasn't had a very real negative effect on the world, because it has. Yeah, you're free to stand where ever you like on these issues, no one is disputing that, but when people are taking factually incorrect stances on very important topics with very real consequences, you bet I find that troubling.

    16. Re:Alarming Freedom by ChromeAeonium · · Score: 2

      Democracy should not mean that one person's ignorance is equal to another's expertise. I certainty wouldn't want issues like medical regulations, environmental welfare, or food safety determined by popular vote, prone to the misinformation of professional activists or corporate ad campaigns, why would these topics be any different? Do you really think that in a technical or scientific topic like, for example, proper surgical guidelines, everyone should get equal say? I sure don't. I want a team of experts exercising complete authority over it, and I don't particularly care what Joe Schmoe has to say.

    17. Re:Alarming Freedom by blue9steel · · Score: 1

      Actually they're not facts, they're theories backed by very strong evidence. A small distinction but an important one.

    18. Re:Alarming Freedom by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      It was ALL facts? For example, is it fact that pesticide treated food is safe to eat? Keep in mind that certain pesticides used in the states are not allowed elsewhere because they are considered unsafe.
      So, which fact is it?

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    19. Re:Alarming Freedom by ranton · · Score: 2

      It's called a "push poll". It's a fancy way of asking questions to make some people seem stupid. It's grown-up name calling. That's all.

      A push poll uses manipulative or loaded questions. Like asking "Do you like Obamacare" while not specifying if you think it goes too far or not far enough. A quick glance at these questions doesn't reveal any loaded or manipulative questions to me.

      Someone people seem stupid because they are, not because a poll is being manipulative.

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    20. Re:Alarming Freedom by ranton · · Score: 1

      Sometimes people seem stupid because they are, not because a poll is being manipulative.

      Fixed it for myself. Sometimes people need to proofread better so they don't seem stupid.

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    21. Re:Alarming Freedom by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Who's arguing for anything else? Assuming that by "opinion" you mean vote. If you mean opinion in the sense of expressed statement synthesized from knowledge, the opinion of an expert is worth a lot more than that of a layperson. You ask a doctor for medical advice, not Joe at the pub. This survey only shows how big a proportion of people voting with equal weight per individual are ill-informed compared with experts none of whose vote has any more weight. It highlights a problem and nobody implies that it should be addressed by altering the voting protocol. The only right way to address the problem is to make everyone more informed. In a good democracy public policy should be based on the values of the people when the people have the same information since there's a broad range of values none of which are better than any others (but I do insist that the values of e.g. ISIS are inferior to Western values).

      As a hypothetical example: If the people in a city were to vote on whether a new nuclear power plant should be allowed to be built, everyone would have ideally precisely the same accurate information - what's the likelihood of a disaster and what would power cost after it's built and what will treating the waste require. People then vote depending on how big a risk of a nuclear disaster they're willing to tolerate in return for a particular price on electricity and with such and such a consequence of treating the waste. There is no right or wrong answer and the result will be a fair reflection of what the people prefer. However, if most are completely misinformed, the result will not reflect what they prefer since their votes have been in response to a different - entirely fictional - question and not the actual one.

    22. Re:Alarming Freedom by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Isn't that kind of the point of living in a free country? We're all entitled to our own beliefs.

      But you're not entitled to your own facts, especially when they contradict objective reality.

    23. Re:Alarming Freedom by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I always laugh when I see someone cite the satellite data as more pure than surface temperature measurements. Satellite data is far more manipulated and massaged* than the surface temperature records and they don't even measure the same thing.

      *That doesn't mean I think the satellite data is invalid, just that it takes a lot of math to transform the measured microwave emissions of O2 in the atmosphere to a temperature record.

    24. Re:Alarming Freedom by riverat1 · · Score: 2

      You stated in a reply to Geoffrey Landis that you have indeed read the IPCC reports. If that is true then cite where you saw the following statements in them because I don't believe you.

      - Climate sensitivity from a double of CO2 is constantly being revised, currently at around less than 1C
                              - CO2 has only started affecting our climate since the late 70s
                              - Humans are responsible for little more than half of that warming by way of CO2

      There are a couple of different kinds of climate sensitivity but I've never heard any sensitivity for a doubling of CO2 being less than about 1.75C.

      CO2 has always had an effect on climate over nearly the whole history of the Earth. It's probably true that before the 2nd half of the 20th Century that human caused increases in CO2 didn't have much of an effect.

      Since the known natural climate forcings are trending in tending in the negative direction lately it's likely than over 100% of the warming is due to human caused increases in greenhouse gases and the feedbacks that causes.

    25. Re:Alarming Freedom by cbeaudry · · Score: 1

      1. About climate sensitivity estimates, as you know, are all over the place, however whats important is they keep shrinking as we learn more.

      https://landshape.files.wordpr...

      2. About my 70s comment:
      I did read it in there somewhere, however cannot pin point it right now.

      You will find in D.3 though:
      https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assess...
      "It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together. The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period. {10.3}"

      Since there was a cooling phase from 1944 until about 1975 it is clear CO2 wasnt warming the planet before that... according to the IPCC.

      3. You'll also see that the reference for the last claim I made is in there too.

      Now, of course climate has always had an effect on climate. We aren't talking about natural forcing, we are talking about AGW.

      Your last sentence is conjecture and speculation as are the supposed feedback's that is supposed to create this runaway warming.

    26. Re:Alarming Freedom by Bathroom+Humor · · Score: 1

      Depends on how harmful it is to hold a belief, or in this case, deny science.
      Usually it's not very harmful at all, but that doesn't mean it's always benign to say "no, these scientists are wrong because reasons, I'll keep doing the thing they want me to have caution with, except I won't use any forethought because reasons, mostly spite."
      Telling scientists to fuck off isn't always good for the general public, even if it's sometimes no big deal. Especially when "fuck off, science nerds" becomes the default response, which it does with certain demographics on certain topics.

    27. Re:Alarming Freedom by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Regarding sensitivity the IPCC AR5 Summary for Policy Makers says:

      The equilibrium climate sensitivity quantifies the response of the climate system to constant radiative forcing on multicentury time scales. It is defined as the change in global mean surface temperature at equilibrium that is caused by a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely in the range 1.5C to 4.5C (high confidence), extremely unlikely less than 1C (high confidence), and very unlikely greater than 6C (medium confidence)16. The lower temperature limit of the assessed likely range is thus less than the 2C in the AR4, but the upper limit is the same. This assessment reflects improved understanding, the extended temperature record in the atmosphere and ocean, and new estimates of radiative forcing. {TS TFE.6, Figure 1; Box 12.2}

      The range given is 1.5C to 4.5C so your statement that it was "currently at around less than 1C" is wrong. Even the page you cited at landshape didn't show anything less than about 1.5C.

      You will find in D.3 though:
      "It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together. The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period. {10.3}"

      Of course the last sentence of that quote implies that the warming since 1951 is around 100% due to human causes.

      Figure SPM.5 from the SPM gives the forcings found for different causes of radiative forcing. Notice most of the change in forcing is due to anthropogenic causes.

      No scientist (that I'm aware of) has said the warming will be a runaway. The fact that each increment of greenhouse gases (including water vapor) causes slightly less warming than the previous increment implies the warming will stop eventually when the level of greenhouse gases quits rising.

    28. Re:Alarming Freedom by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Fortunately, when it comes to public policy, everyone's opinion is of equal worth.

      “Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'”
        Isaac Asimov

    29. Re:Alarming Freedom by dog77 · · Score: 1

      Research the topic "how do cloud formation affect global warming".

      Is it a fact we understand the impact of cloud formation on global warming?

      Read what NASA thinks about it? http://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/rol...

      Here is an excerpt: "Right now, we do not know how important the cloud-radiative or cloud-precipitation effects are and can not predict possible climate changes accurately."

      My point is not diminish the concern of global warming, but to make the point that when we start talking about science in absolutes, we start to sound like religous fanatics, rather than rational and objective.

    30. Re:Alarming Freedom by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's not French. That's Greek.

    31. Re:Alarming Freedom by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually they're not facts, they're theories backed by very strong evidence. A small distinction but an important one.

      Give an example of anything within physics that is a "fact" as opposed to just "a theory backed by very strong evidence".

      Words have different meanings in different contexts. When a physicist says that it is a "fact" that opposite electrical charges attract, of course that is just a part of "a theory backed by very strong evidence", but this is what "fact" means in this context.

    32. Re:Alarming Freedom by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I always laugh when I see someone cite the satellite data as more pure than surface temperature measurements. Satellite data is far more manipulated and massaged* than the surface temperature records

      No.

    33. Re:Alarming Freedom by Stuarticus · · Score: 1

      No one is entitled to their own facts. There's also the tricky problem of wrongheaded groupthink blocking potential action to avoid any potentially catastrophic consequences of people thinking their beliefs are better than real science.

      --
      If you think someone isn't free to have a different definition of "freedom" you may be a tyrant.
    34. Re:Alarming Freedom by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Less than 1C would be physically impossible. There simply isn't a mechanism for it. All other things being equal, a doubling of CO2 must result in at least 1C of warming, and this is pretty easy to demonstrate in laboratory experiments. The water vapor feedback cycle is of course more complicated, but generally strongly positive, as your graph shows. This element of AGW probably has more solid foundations than the theory of gravity; one can only lament the GP's education.

    35. Re:Alarming Freedom by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      one can only lament the GP's education.

      I suspect it has more to do with ideology than it does with education.

    36. Re:Alarming Freedom by OhPlz · · Score: 1

      Real science brought us things like asbestos and CFCs. Real science has brought us conflicting nutritional guidelines. Real science had us fearing global cooling, then global warming, then global undefined change. It shouldn't be surprising that the average layperson is going to be skeptical of the latest batch of scientific facts. A honest scientist should also be skeptical, science requires a bit of skepticism and the ability to challenge its own accepted facts. At the same time, there is a need for everyone to be vaccinated against certain diseases, for example. The sad part is that we have to mandate it. Science isn't trusted, government certainly isn't trusted, and here we are. It's the ever-present conflict of liberty versus safety.

    37. Re:Alarming Freedom by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Care to elaborate?

    38. Re:Alarming Freedom by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You don't have to be sceptical about the possibility that the rock you threw up in the air might come down and land on your head.

    39. Re:Alarming Freedom by cbeaudry · · Score: 1

      “We must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”
      Dwight D. Eisenhower

    40. Re:Alarming Freedom by cbeaudry · · Score: 1

      Why is it that people distrust the government, but dont distrust government paid studies?

      If the government in power has an agenda, do you not think it possible that grants would be awarded only on subjects that align with that agenda?

      Somehow, research paid for by the government seems to get a pass on scrutiny, but when its paid for by anyone else it doesn't.

      “We must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”
      Dwight D. Eisenhower

      The intellectual dishonesty on this subject is mind boggling.

    41. Re:Alarming Freedom by cbeaudry · · Score: 1

      Your not entitled to your own model outputs to shape public policy, especially when it contradicts observations.

      Charts and models are NOT "objective reality".

    42. Re:Alarming Freedom by cbeaudry · · Score: 1

      Come back to us when you understand the difference between "Science", "Research", "Scientists" and "Government grants".

      Also, stop talking like Science is the bible and holds the "truth".

      When you start realizing that individual research and scientists are fallible, you'll start looking and reading papers with open eyes instead of ideological blinders.

    43. Re:Alarming Freedom by cbeaudry · · Score: 1

      And comparing gravity with how the climate works, is the same as comparing why a wheel needs to be round with the science behind nuclear fission.

      Your ignorance is showing, or your bias.

    44. Re:Alarming Freedom by Bathroom+Humor · · Score: 1

      Not sure what the straw man is for, but I think it's strange for you to assume science isn't a method for ascertaining the truth. If you weren't trying to imply that, then it's not immediately apparent to me.

      If someone wants to disagree with science and the scientists who advance it, simply because they don't trust it and the implications are inconvenient, I don't see why I should respect that wholly uninformed opinion. Not all skepticism is reasonable. Again, not that it always matters, since many things are not cut-and-dry, or life-and-death. But I was (and still am) specifically talking about cases where having ignorance of widely accepted and tested science can cause REAL harm, which many controversial topics have the opportunity to introduce. Knowledge is never static forever and research is subject to corruption, but there's a point where extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. 90% of scientists and their scientific contributions COULD be dead wrong for various reasons, but proving their work wrong should more thorough than "No I don't like them because I do not trust them". A spokesperson/religious leader/etc with their own motives telling uninformed citizens that scientists are ideological or greedy whenever the results disagree with their narrative is not evidence against anything. Scientists being imperfect doesn't change that in any way.

      Excellent example: http://www.doh.wa.gov/Newsroom...
      Not to say extra vaccinations would have absolutely stopped this person from dying from measles, but people who deny the very reputable and sound science on vaccinations (and vehemently distrust the scientists who work on them without exception) make this sort of event way more likely to take place. When a scientist is provably correct, denying that knowledge is effectively denying science.

    45. Re:Alarming Freedom by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I think it's impossible to say that models contradict observations especially since observations are still within the uncertainty ranges of the models.

      Observations are objective reality and so far 2015 is the hottest year on record. With the developing El Nino likely to be a strong one it's likely this year will set an unequivocal new temperature record.

  9. ideological? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Who ever wrote this is obviously not a scientist.

  10. Shouldn't we know why by now? by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

    I mean, it's not like this hasn't been discussed before... Ignorance is strength...

    --
    “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
  11. Group identity and outgroup hostility. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    On the science, you'll find this holds up in both the stated discrepancies because Republicans HATE the science and the facts because of their ideologies are incompatible with them.

    Democrats don't have any ideological problem (maybe not even caring, therefore "why not just take their word for it?"

    This isn't to say that republicans are *anti-science*, only that there are some things that science says that they have *VERY* strong feelings over, where the Democrats don't have that feeling in their ideology. OTHER areas Democrats will have an ideological stance and either refute the independent expert advice or *too vehemently* follow the weak evidence. I'm sure that someone will be able to find it, my problem isn't that I don't like (R), but that I'm not in the USA, the only things I hear about are the hot topics that generate the most media frenzy. And that at the moment is AGW and evolution. Both of which happen to coincide with the most negative view by mainly republican politics.

  12. Very large gap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I clicked on this hoping for a study on lasers, or at least sharks.

    Pew pew!

  13. but we knew that already ! by swell · · Score: 1

    An authoritative, expensive survey to affirm what we already know. What's remarkable is that few will argue the results. You might think that conservatives would be embarrassed to see that their kind don't believe in evolution, but since they are conservative they probably agree. It's difficult to see who benefits from this exhaustive study.

    --
    ...omphaloskepsis often...
  14. Biased summary by tomhath · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Aside from pointing out the glaringly obvious (people who identify themselves as Conservative gave responses consistent with what you would expect from people who identify themselves as conservative, same for LIberals), /. the summary ignores far more interesting points.

    1) There is a much smaller difference between Republicans and Democrats than there is between Conservatives and Liberals, e.g. the Evolution question goes from 21% versus 54% (Ideology) to 57% versus 72% (Party Id).

    2) Several of the questions show a fairly small difference between Republicans and Democrats (pesticides, animal research, world population, vaccines, manned space programs, bioengineered fuel, and space station).

    1. Re:Biased summary by Peter+Allan · · Score: 2

      It's also a biased poll. It's well known that liberals tend to hold some unscientific beliefs such as astrology, but they conveniently omitted any questions on them.

    2. Re:Biased summary by meglon · · Score: 1

      Yes, Reagan was a liberal. Did you notice, in your detailed dissection of the poll questions, that they were about science... not fucking idiocy like astrology? If there was a pool like this done on the idiotic fringe of "belief" systems, i'm would imagine that conservatives would score as having much higher numbers believing in the fringe areas, as conservatives tend to be much more prone to "believe" something than live in reality.

      --
      Fascism: An authoritarian and nationalistic right-wing system of government and social organization. See also: NAZI's
    3. Re:Biased summary by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's well known that liberals tend to hold some unscientific beliefs such as astrology...

      Yes, Reagan was a liberal.

      Wow. Someone failed logic class.

    4. Re:Biased summary by Peter+Allan · · Score: 1

      You spelled "fucking" correctly.

    5. Re:Biased summary by tomhath · · Score: 1

      I also don't understand the fixation on evolution. A certain percentage of any population, any country, any religion, will say that they believe what their religion teaches because that's what they've been taught to say (whether they actually believe it or not is another issue).

  15. Acronym AAAS means what? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Even if the summary cannot seem to spell it out, and the AAAS website does not either. Some of us click links to learn about things we know nothing about. Please spell out acronyms once, then we'll have it. Thanks!

    1. Re:Acronym AAAS means what? by sexconker · · Score: 4, Funny

      Assholes as a Service

    2. Re:Acronym AAAS means what? by PvtVoid · · Score: 2

      Assholes as a Service

      Man, they're putting everything in the cloud these days!

    3. Re:Acronym AAAS means what? by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      AAAS = American Association for the Advancement of Science

  16. Millennials don't mind government aggression by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    >>Encouragingly, almost everybody thinks childhood vaccines should be required (86% of AAAS members, 65% of conservatives, and 74% of liberals.)
    Not a real shocker these days that most are okay with someone jamming a needle into everyone even if they don't want it. It is very similar act to rape.

    1. Re:Millennials don't mind government aggression by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      The difference is that the needle will protect everybody.
      OTOH, rape does nothing of the kind.

      And if you are opposed to it, please go to Somalia. They will not require it.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  17. Re:Chicken Little by MobyDisk · · Score: 4, Informative

    Take, for example, Global Cooling back in the 1970's. That was refuted with Global Warming in the 2000's

    It was refuted in the 1970s, not the 200's. It was never a popular theory. No one should doubt Global Warming on the basis that the scientific community switched its stance. It never did: the majority of scientists were saying it was warming all along.

    now it's simply Global Climate Change

    It has been called "climate change" since before 1988, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed. Today, people act like the name is some kind of knee-jerk defense against the switch between "global cooling" and "global warming" when in fact, there was no name change at all, nor was there ever a switch.

  18. Re:Chicken Little Russian saying nonsence by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Trust but Verify"
    If you trust you don't verify but if you verify you don't trust BY DEFINITION.
    The whole definition of trust is you trust and because of that trust do NOT DO checks BECAUSE you TRUST!

  19. Reminds me of a 'Friends' episode by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Phoebe: Ok, Ross, could you just open your mind like this much, ok? Wasn't there a time when the brightest minds in the world believed that the world was flat? And, up until like what, 50 years ago, you all thought the atom was the smallest thing, until you split it open, and this like, whole mess of crap came out. Now, are you telling me that you are so unbelievably arrogant that you can't admit that there's a teeny tiny possibility that you could be wrong about this?

    ROSS: There might be, a teeny, tiny, possibility.

    PHOEBE: I can't believe you caved.

    ROSS: What?

    PHOEBE: You just abandoned your whole belief system. I mean, before, I didn't agree with you, but at least I respected you. How, how, how are you going to go into work tomorrow? How, how are you going to face the other science guys? How, how are you going to face yourself? Oh!

    Ross leave the room dejected.

  20. Re:Research studies are for cows. by sycodon · · Score: 4, Funny

    Strange, but I'm finding I agree with this.

    --
    When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
  21. What happened to the scientific method? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm sure there was a time when 9 out of 10 scientists would have said the world is flat, witches should be burned at the stake, or that the atom resembled some type of pudding. Of course science isn't about what the individual scientists think or feel, but what they can prove. You need to look at the data and arguments, not just the headlines.

    Oh and also, thanks for throwing in the pointless jab about "Encouragingly, almost everybody thinks childhood vaccines should be required," because obviously the 86%, 65%, and 74% you quoted really isn't almost everybody and again doesn't prove anything. Even the scientists who might agree in general still might not agree on the specifics, especially for vaccinations. That statement of "encouragingly" is exactly what's wrong with the subjective "I'll do whatever the scientists tell me to do" bandwagon, because taken to an extreme any eccentric billionaire can fund enough phony scientists and create enough marketing material to convince them of anything.

    1. Re:What happened to the scientific method? by WindBourne · · Score: 2

      Actually, science came about after the world was determined to be round, and science has always been against witchcraft.
      It was conservative religious nut jobs that push concepts of flat earth and witchcraft.

      Scientific method came about in 17th century.

      But hey, do not let facts get in your conservative religious nut job approach.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    2. Re:What happened to the scientific method? by EvilAlphonso · · Score: 2

      I'm sure there was a time when 9 out of 10 scientists would have said the world is flat

      The earth as a sphere has been known for something between 2400 years and 2600 years. Its size was calculated about 2250 years ago, with amazing accuracy for the time. The only major publication whose words could be twisted to reference a flat earth would be the New Testament in Revelations 7:1 (four corners of the earth).

    3. Re:What happened to the scientific method? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The earth as a sphere has been known for something between 2400 years and 2600 years.

      Exactly. Almost since the creation of the Earth itself.

    4. Re:What happened to the scientific method? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Religious nutjobs like (all referenced in your link):
      William of Ockham a Franciscan Friar
      St. Albert the Great a Dominican Friar
      Roger Bacon a Franciscan Friar
      and many others...

    5. Re:What happened to the scientific method? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Science existed long before the 17th century. Even before BC people where for example trying different treatments for diseases, writing down the result and then deciding on the best one based on the findings. To say that the Scientific Method came about in the 17th Century may be true by definition, But the actual practice of scientists has been around as long as history takes us (and in my opinion probably since the dawn of humanity).

      Sure one could always find a definition that "proves" that those conducting experiments and coming to correct conclusions before the advent of "scence" was soemthing else. But that would just be words.

  22. Funny I saw this poll the other day by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

    http://dailycaller.com/2012/04...

    Amazing how this sort of thing works.

  23. You clicked on the wrong button by tomhath · · Score: 2

    Take another look at the numbers for Republican vs. Democrat. They are much closer than the summary (mis)led you to believe by quoting the Conservative vs. Liberal numbers.

    Also notice the subtle wording of the AGW question: "The earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity". The word "mostly" is clearly there to bias the answers. They didn't ask "Is the earth getting warmer?", or "Is human activity contributing to the earth getting warmer?"

    1. Re:You clicked on the wrong button by neminem · · Score: 2

      Agree complete: I *would* agree with the phrasing "The earth is getting warmer because of human activity" (i.e. it's a contributing factor). I would even agree with the phrasing "The earth is getting warmer primarily because of human activity" (i.e. it's the *biggest* factor). Saying it's getting warmer "mostly" because of human activity means there's very little *else* contributing to the trend, which I'm not at all sure we have proof of, nor is it even particularly relevant. I caught that right away. I'm surprised that high a percentage of liberals/democrats agreed anyway, given it's not really true as stated.

    2. Re:You clicked on the wrong button by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I would understand the word "mostly" in the phrase "mostly due to" as meaning "more than 50% of the cause".

  24. Re:Chicken Little by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It's hard to trust anyone who's work is disseminated by the government or media today.

    That's an assertion that's hard to challenge in the libertarian atmosphere of slashdot.

    Research and reports are spun mercilessly for the gain of whoever needs it.

    Indeed, it's always wise to track down the actual original data, and actually look at the data and see what we know, and how well we know it, rather than to trust the media interpretations.

    It may not be scientist's fault but when you hear something like "the sky is falling" and then hear it refuted over and over, one starts to take things with a grain of salt.

    The media does like to run doom and destruction stories-- they are more of a story than talking about things like "slow increase in temperature over a time scale of decades."

    Take, for example, Global Cooling back in the 1970's.

    OK, let's take it for an example. There was never a scientific consensus about global cooling in the 1970s. The American Meteorological Society did a review, trying to look for the origin of that. http://journals.ametsoc.org/do... They summarize: "There was no scientific consensus in the 1970s that the Earth was headed into an imminent ice age. Indeed, the possibility of anthropogenic warming dominated the peer-reviewed literature even then.

    That was refuted with Global Warming in the 2000's

    It was not really "refuted" per se, since it was never a scientific consensus in the first place.

    and now it's simply Global Climate Change which seems to be a catch-all.

    "Global Climate Change" was the term coined by the (first) Bush administration.

    I don't deny GCC but I certainly want to see the data.

    Excellent! That's the difference between deniers and skeptics: deniers will make any possible excuse to avoid looking at data. As it turns out, there are literally terabytes of data.

    I will suggest starting with the Working Group 1 report, The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change, which summarizes what is known and how we know it. I'm most familiar with the 4th report (www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html), from 2007, but you might want to go directly to the more recent update, the 5th: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/...

    From there, dive into the data from whichever source you prefer-- I'd suggest possibly the Berkeley Earth data, which does an interesting job of comparing alternative hypotheses against the temperature data: http://berkeleyearth.org/summa...

    What's the old adage that Regan grabbed from the Russian's; "Trust but Verify" I think was it.

    Excellent. Much better than the denier's motto: "Never trust, never verify, never look at the facts."

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
  25. Re:Chicken Little by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So, exactly what is in THIS survey do you SPECIFICALLY KNOW FOR FACT is spin?

    Lazy thinking is bad.

  26. i'm going with 98% of the scientific community tnx by Ionized · · Score: 2

    not you, random internet guy.

  27. Vaccines by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Make a note that the vaccines graphs are broken. It just shows whatever you were viewing before you clicked on it.

  28. Re:i'm going with 98% of the scientific community by cbeaudry · · Score: 1

    The numbers above are from the IPCC (albeit from memory, correct some of they are wrong).

    Its all nice and dandy to say the sky is falling, but which of the points above do you not agree with?

  29. No alternative once you eliminate thr alternatives by radarskiy · · Score: 1

    "anyone who's work is disseminated by the government or media today"

    The only other category is "people I've never heard of". Hard to trust them either.

  30. to properly work vaccine must cover most pop by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "whether vaccines should be required is not a question for science to answer."

    You would be surprised what science answers. Vaccination do not work 100% and some people cannot get vaccinated. Thus science tells us vaccination should be given to the whole population to be the most effective, and protect those who cannot (not : cannot, NOT do not want) get vaccinated by lowering the chance of contagion. Thus : despite in california the level of vaccination being high (majority of population) despite that infantile illness still managed to contaminate and kill kids in mini localized epidemics. That is because as level of vaccination drop, such mini epidemic gets more likely very quickly. So the answer of science is clear : vaccinate everybody who can. Now allowing people to opt out a vaccination program IS the politic answer and handling of the issue of belief under the cover of freedom.

    1. Re:to properly work vaccine must cover most pop by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      protect those who cannot (not : cannot, NOT do not want) get vaccinated

      Like who? We all need to get vaccinated to protect that one guy in Ohio?

  31. Phrasing and subtlety by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The climate change question is:

    "The earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity"

    Which is, if one is to answer honestly, a shitty phrasing of the question. The reason it is a shitty phrasing is that the attribution places the majority of the cause on human activity.

    The IPCC makes that claim. However, it is possible to believe that humans affect the environment and add to warming while believing that there are other natural causes that are responsible for the majority of the warming and that the IPCC projections (note, the IPCC *never* ever predicts anything. Why? Because if a prediction fails to come true you can be called on it. Projections, on the other hand...) are way too high.

    As a simple example without going into the whole debate, I suspect that the ECS of a doubling of CO2 is much lower than the IPCC thinks. I am more in line with Lewis and Curry on this. Warning, PDF

    https://niclewis.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/lewiscurry_ar5-energy-budget-climate-sensitivity_clim-dyn2014_accepted-reformatted-edited.pdf

    The climate is a tricky, nonlinear problem. Not all of the factors are known and many of the 'known' factors aren't known very well. Yet some people insist on brushing these uncertainties under the rug and get mad when anyone dares to point these things out. And when questions are phrased badly, like the one in the study, the alarmists and those wishing to score political points jump all over anyone who dares to think about the issue a little deeper than "Humans are evil! We are all gonna DIE!'.

    At the same time ir is easier to state 'All conservatives are stooopid" than it is to actually check the science yourself.

    Slee

  32. quod erat demonstrandum by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

    I love stories like this one, which are proven conclusively in the comments section under them.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  33. Re: Chicken Little Russian saying nonsence by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Thank you. This stupid phrase is promulgated by conservatives who are so afraid that everyone is always out to get them that they no longer know how civil society can work. Hint: It includes the ability to trust.

  34. Re:i'm going with 98% of the scientific community by JackieBrown · · Score: 1

    I love your post. It demostrates how much blind trust you have for infomation that is pro-climate change.

    I'd be willing to bet that any anti-climate change info you read, you do the same lack of research and simply assume it's a lie from Big Oil.

    You blindly believed and quoted (without any independent research) the summary of a slashdot article.

    The article itself gives a different number and submitted mentioned that the 98% was a typo.

    http://news.slashdot.org/comme...

    That number made sense to you because it agreed with your viewpoint so you did no research and blindly accepted the information you were told (and proudly changed the subject line.)

  35. issues with liberals and scientists as well by WindBourne · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Look at the nuke issue. Scientists want to continue building new nuke plants. Why? Because we KNOW that global warming is a REAL ISSUE that needs REAL SOLUTIONS.
    However, Liberals, like conservatives, put their head in the ground and ignore the fact that new gen IV reactors can NOT have the issues that we seen in these gen II and gen III reactors.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    1. Re:issues with liberals and scientists as well by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      So someone needs to build one of those Gen IV reactors and show that it can compete economically with current sources of power.

    2. Re:issues with liberals and scientists as well by r0kk3rz · · Score: 1

      Gen IV reactors are still at the prototype/design phase, and as such you cant really just build one and expect it to compete with proven commercial designs.

      China is however building out Gen III/+ reactors like no tomorrow. which are the current state-of-the-art production grade reactor designs. Personally I don't see why the rest of the developed world can't follow suit, replacing the aging plants with outdated designs in the process.

  36. Re:Chicken Little by meglon · · Score: 1

    I don't deny GCC but I certainly want to see the data.

    I suppose the big questions is: beings as you are here, writing about climate change, why the fuck haven't you ALREADY looked at the data as it's been available for a while now?

    --
    Fascism: An authoritarian and nationalistic right-wing system of government and social organization. See also: NAZI's
  37. Re:i'm going with 98% of the scientific community by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 2

    The numbers above are from the IPCC (albeit from memory, correct some of they are wrong).

    Correct in the last part: some of them are wrong.

    The actual IPCC documents are here: http://www.ipcc.ch/publication...

    An interesting graphic comparing various sources of climate change is here: http://www.bloomberg.com/graph...

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
  38. Gaps between Public and Economists by TheSync · · Score: 1

    Indeed, there also is a large gap between the viewpoint of the public and economists.

    For example, few economists (11%) agree with the statement "'Buy American' has a positive impact on manufacturing employment", whereas 75% of the public feel that way.

    94% of economists feel that NAFTA was a good idea, only 46% of the public agree.

  39. Re:Chicken Little by lars_stefan_axelsson · · Score: 1

    It has been called "climate change" since before 1988, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed. Today, people act like the name is some kind of knee-jerk defense against the switch between "global cooling" and "global warming" when in fact, there was no name change at all, nor was there ever a switch.

    Especially as the gist of the theory is: anthropogenic global warming leading to climate change. (And the shift is sensible. If the global average temperature increase didn't lead to climate change, we wouldn't be that concerned with it).

    That we don't use that mouthful all the time is no different than you lot calling para-acetylaminophenol, acetaminophen, and we calling it paracetamol. The full thing is just too much. It's just basically a name. The underlying "thing" is still the same. In both cases.

    --
    Stefan Axelsson
  40. One man's facts are another man's opinions by penguinoid · · Score: 1

    opinion
    [uh-pin-yuh n]
    noun
    1.
    a belief or judgment that rests on grounds insufficient to produce complete certainty.

    To most people, both supporters and opponents, evolution and global warming are a matter of opinion because they don't know enough for certainty. I suppose a lot of them could argue that it's actually a

    fact
    [fakt]
    noun
    4.
    something said to be true or supposed to have happened:
    The facts given by the witness are highly questionable.

    While evolution and global warming are both definitely questions of fact rather than of preference, there are very few who could make that determination themselves rather than trust someone else's judgement.

    --
    Don't waste your vote! Vote for whoever you want, unless you live in a swing state it won't matter anyways
    1. Re:One man's facts are another man's opinions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      and yet, science differs with you.

  41. what are your qualifications? by Ionized · · Score: 1

    please share with us, where did you receive your advanced degrees in environmental science and climatology? it was probably somewhere really prestigious!

    1. Re:what are your qualifications? by cbeaudry · · Score: 1

      What are yours?
      What are Pew's?
      What are Obama's?
      What are Gavin Schmidt's?
      What are the qualifications of the 67 scientist who supposedly represent 98% of the entire SCIENTIFIC community?

      The intellectual dishonesty or out right laziness is very strong on this subject. As long as it fits your ideology, right?

    2. Re:what are your qualifications? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The named people are repeating the consensus of the scientific community. You are repeating half-remembered nonsense. If your readings have not convinced you that AGW is a serious threat to humanity, then either you haven't read enough, you haven't understood what you've read, or both. You also haven't seen most of the world's glaciers evaporating, or the shrinking polar ice caps. Do you have any comprehension of what a cubic kilometer of ice is like? Even small glaciers are of a scale that dwarfs all human structure. You can go to places in Alaska where glacier overlooks were constructed, twenty or thirty years ago, and since then the glacier has retreated so far it is no longer visible.

      We are observing global warming. It is very, very real. The theory behind it is somewhat complicated, but unshakable. If a higher partial pressure of CO2 does not cause warming, then everything we know about radiative heat transfer is wrong. And there's no need to take anyone's word on it: you can test the effect in your basement, with a modest amount of equipment.

      But you don't test it. You don't read the theory, and you look past the observations. You speak of intellectual dishonesty and laziness from deep personal experience, no doubt.

    3. Re:what are your qualifications? by JackieBrown · · Score: 1

      Cute.

      What part of my post do you think requires an advance degree in environmental science and climatology?

      As demostrated by quoting incorrect information in a slashdot summary, you screwed up and showed that you will belive anything that backs your bias without doing any research.

      Or do you think I need a degree to click the link on the summary?

  42. Re:Chicken Little by KeensMustard · · Score: 1
    So you find it hard to trust statements that have been repeatedly refuted?

    How ironic.

  43. Evolution numbers look wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    For the evolution question it says:
    Liberals: 54%, Moderate 38%, Conservative 21%
    But it also says:
    Democrat: 72%, Republican 57%.

    This can't be right. The most pro-evolution ideology can't be less pro-evolution than the most anti-evolution party, as a matter of math, unless their non-party identification rates are like 90%.

    1. Re:Evolution numbers look wrong by lucien86 · · Score: 1

      I just took a look and you are correct, the stats do look pretty odd. The sets of stats pos and neg don't add up to 100 so they are including those who returned no answer - That's why only 98% of the AAAS 'believe' in evolution.. the other 2% didn't answer.

      The proportion for conservative is still far lower than those for Republican, but the proportion for moderates is about the same as Republican. Probably a lot of the conservatives are Tea Party supporters.

      --
      Below the speed of light Special Relativity is one of the most accurate theories in physics - above the speed of light..
  44. +1, pedantic by Ionized · · Score: 1

    congratulations, you correctly identified that not everything in the list was a fact. here's your cookie.

    the OPINIONS of the people on that list were ultimately formed based on facts, either real ones or fake ones doled out by alarmists, quacks, or fox news. my point stands.

  45. Re:Research studies are for cows. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Please see my well-documented retort.

  46. Re:Chicken Little by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The libertard can't understand the raw data anyway.

    And in addition, in order to verify the data, you also have to trust the source of the data. In addition to trusting the source of the data, you also have to understand how the data was taken.

    Maybe if the libertard were to take 2+ years of college level math, physics and engineering courses; followed by another year or so of instrumentation classes.

    Just the easily refuted list of bogus facts the libertard's spewing. Saying "Trust and Verify" is easy, but apparently that libertard isn't even capable of doing that with their Faux nooz talking points much less verifying actual climate data.

  47. It is not that complicated by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Intelligence is of little concern and to be honest I'd like to know what defines intelligence

    Intelligence is a rough measure of a person's learning potential.

    All other things being equal a guy with a 130 IQ is going to be able to learn and understand much more than a guy with a 90 IQ.

  48. Re:i'm going with 98% of the scientific community by cbeaudry · · Score: 1

    I meant correct some IF they are wrong.

    An infographic for children filled with lines that have no data points is useless.
    Besides, it has been shown to be wrong.

    The CO2 trend alone is below actual readings.

    As for linking to the IPCC... well that was more than useless.

    Point out what is wrong or dont bother posting.

  49. That's why decent PR is needed by Natales · · Score: 1

    This could be easily solved by having a single place (a web site and an app) where the scientific community at large shares with the public what's the current consensus, explained in the simplest terms possible, with links to credible resources to second level and third level of depth.

    The site needs to be authoritative, and widely known as the single source from the community, so if anyone ever has a doubt, they know where to go to understand what the scientific community really think about a certain issue.

    This does not mean by any means the absence of debate, or the constant change in views and information, but a place where the bulk of the community put their minor differences aside for the benefit of the common good and their own, by helping closing those gaps.

  50. Source by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

    Besides, it has been shown to be wrong.

    You seen to think that by just saying that you will make it true.

    As for linking to the IPCC... well that was more than useless.

    Since you said you were quoting numbers from the IPCC, I would suggest that linking to the IPCC reports would be relevant. Since you now say it is "more than useless" to link to the source that you claimed to have based your post on, I'd say that your post is "more than useless."

    I haven't seen anything to make me think you have actually read any of the IPCC reports-- I suspect your poorly-remembered data is something you poorly-remembered from some political blog somewhere. Have you actually read anything from the IPCC, the work you claim to be quoting?

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    1. Re:Source by cbeaudry · · Score: 1

      About the Bloomberg graph.
      http://wattsupwiththat.com/201...

      About the IPCC reports. Indeed I have read them.
      You would like to imply I have not, as if reading should automatically turn me into a believer.

      It has not.

      Its unfortunate your superiority complex prevents any proper discussion.
      You are assuming I am wrong and thus linked, off offhandedly to the IPCC reports saying I'm wrong.

      As usual, your side doesnt debate anything, only appeals to authority.

  51. Re:i'm going with 98% of the scientific community by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 2

    In other words, you don't know what you are talking about, but you heard this really neat meme, that, if it were true, would be a slam dunk for the opinion you hold. The problem of course is that the "98% of the scientific community" claim is not supported by any actual studies. The actual study said that 97% of papers on climatology published in peer reviewed journals supported anthropogenic global warming. The thing is that the study counted any paper on climatology which did not explicitly express the the position that anthropogenic global warming was NOT true as supporting the theory, even when the subject of the paper was not connected to that theory in any way.

    --
    The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
  52. Repubs Liberals by buybuydandavis · · Score: 1

    ", with clear differences between Republicans and Democrats, and between conservatives and liberals. For example, while 98% of AAAS members agree with the statement that "Human beings and other living things have evolved over time", only 21% of conservatives agree, compared with 54% of liberals. "

    I hope PEW wasn't equally sloppy about conflating the republican/democrat axis with the conservatives/liberal axis.

  53. Re: i'm going with 98% of the scientific community by Ionized · · Score: 1

    Ok let's say that only 60% of experts agree that man is the primary cause of the current trends. A number that I pulled out my anus, and is surely way too low.

    I'm going to go with 60% of the experts.

    Incidentally, those are the 60% that aren't on the payroll of the oil or coal industry.

  54. WTF is AAAS? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Seems some essential data is missing from that summary. Seriously. Expand the fucking cryptic acronyms at least once.

    Association of American Astronaut Surfers?
    Anything Animated And Silly?
    Arbitrary Acronyms Are Stupid?

  55. Intelligence and education by golodh · · Score: 1
    By and large, education and intelligence tend to show show a strong correlation (if one controls for opportunity and rote learning)..

    Acquiring an education at university level (at a reputable university) requires one to be able to grasp a coherent set of ideas and techniques that together form the tissue of established science.

    A student's grasp of the subject matter is (in reputable universities) not tested by measuring if people can regurgitate the material (achievable by rote learning), but if they can *apply* the tools to a new problem and if they can correctly assess and explain the impact and importance of e.g. changing one or two basic propositions of the theory.

    That is how you test if a student has actually understood something they learned. And no, the questions that result from this line of approach can't be found in the books and can't easily be prepared for.

    Correctly answering questions like that demands knowledge (a student must *know* (i.e. have memorised) enough of the subject matter) as well as intelligence (defined as sufficient grasp of the theory and an ability to use the theory to reason with it (i.e. apply it), and (this is how you recognise very good students) the ability to reason *about* the theory).

    So by and large, someone who is educated in a reputable field at a reputable university and has better than minimum passing grades is intelligent. If they can grasp, apply, and reason about one theory, they will be able to do the same with other theories. Those tend to be the people that go into research by embarking on a PhD (at reputable universities).

    So there's the causal link underlying the correlation between intelligence and education.

    Of course there are a fair number of diploma mills that focus on testing memory. There you don't receive an education, you memorise a syllabus and learn how to avoid saying anything not covered by the text you learned.

  56. Re:Chicken Little by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Just read the National Weather Service report from measurement stations in USA.... they deemed that 98% of their own stations are affected by known issues and produce invalid/biased data... and YES this is in country that is no.1 in world in science.... so hold that in mind when you start looking temperature statistics...

  57. Citation needed by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

    Yeah, right. Let's believe anonymous cowards on facebook as reliable sources; they know much more than actual scientists.

    Citation needed.

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
  58. Re: Chicken Little Russian saying nonsence by unixcorn · · Score: 1

    Ah yes, the ability to trust. Tell that to my aging parents who live with me because social security is inadequate. Just another great promise of the government you feel I should trust implicitly. And certainly I should trust anyone who is looking for their next research grant and needs to prop up something as big as climate change too.

  59. One-sided skepticism by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

    I have a suggestion: I suggest you try analyzing blogs that attack climate science with just as much skepticism as you are applying to the actual climate science. You're showing one-sided skepticism: skeptical of the science, but completely credulous of the attacks on the science.

    That blog post you link is full of misdirection and not-quite-right analysis. The graph by Bloomberg cites that the data graphed comes from the GISS. In fact, it is from a 2005 paper, Hansen, et al. "Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS model E." Clim. Dyn., 29, 2007, pp. 661-696). The Watt's up post, though: what's up with that? He wrote a long and superficially detailed analysis... without linking a single reference. Why no references? It looks like he doesn't want you to check what he did. His motto is, apparently, "trust me... and don't verify".

    Why does he not link to the source of all the data he is analyzing? Doesn't that even slightly make you wonder?

    Then, he says it's "convenient" that the graphed data stops at 2005. Well, it's not terribly suspicious: since the paper referenced was published in 2005, it would be surprising if the data didn't stop in 2005). He then shows a graph that purportedly shows "the widening divergence between models and reality" that purportedly starts in 2005. No link to the actual source of that data, though it's easy enough to find. He prints that graph-- the largest graph in the criticism-- without mentioning that it's not even graphing the same thing as the article he's criticizing.

    He leaves off any explanation of where the data comes from probably because the data points graphed are not surface temperature-- this is the temperature in the mid-troposphere: 8–15km in altitude (and, to boot, only in the tropics, not the global average under discussion.)

    The graph Watts Up put in without explanation is charting something completely different than the subject being discussed! Now, you can argue (and Christy does) that tropical mid-troposphere temperate is something important to understand and model... but that's a change of subject from what the article being critiqued discusses.

    Why doesn't he say that?

    The answer is obvious: this is misdirection. He's not trying to spread understanding. He's trying to spread confusion.

    Start reading the Watts Up with the same skepticism you are applying to the actual science. Check his references. Look for misdirection and changes of subject. There's a dozen places right in that post you link that you can find things that you ought to find suspicious.

    ...About the IPCC reports. Indeed I have read them.

    No, you haven't.

    Your posts show no knowledge of anything except the denier arguments. If you had read the actual work that the denier blogs are attacking, you'd be able to comment with some actual understanding, instead of the comments you are posting with weasel-wording of "I am quoting from memory, I may be wrong." What a great weasel wording! You already told me that you think you might be wrong!

    As usual, your side doesn't debate anything, only appeals to authority.

    I linked to the source that you stated you were getting your facts from. You were the one appealing to authority: I just posting the link.

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    1. Re:One-sided skepticism by cbeaudry · · Score: 1

      How about you stop grandstanding and discuss the post where I specifically mentioned where in the IPCC reports I got my info.

  60. Re:Chicken Little by unixcorn · · Score: 1

    I didn't say that.

  61. like the 50's, but more so by whitroth · · Score: 1

    In '58, the famous essayist CP Snow published an essay entitled, "On the Two Cultures". In it, he was talking about the cultures of the sciences vs. the liberal arts. He noted, for example, that he knew plenty of scientists who could quote Shakespeare chapter and verse, but not one liberal arts person who even knew the simplified three laws of thermodynamics.

    It's gotten much worse, and spread, thanks to the GOP's explicit building a reliable base of yellow dog Republicans out of the extreme right, the conspiracyists, the group that wants their RIGHTS (but aren't interested in their responsibilities) andthe funnymentalists who think the world's only 6000 years old. Then the media whose owners want that legal and tax and spending agenda treat them as "equally valid", and dumb down the science in school, and this is what you get: the party adherents whose mind is made up, don't confuse them with facts.

                    mark "the RW trumps your opinion"

  62. Re:Correction - WEB SITE IS BUGGY by Qwertie · · Score: 1

    On the web site, if I click (under Ideology) "Safe to eat foods grown with pesticides" and then "Humans and other living things have evolved over time", the percentages shown for the latter will match the former (31-27-25-68%). If I click "The earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity" and then "Humans and other living things have evolved over time" once again I see the statistics associated with the former (29-56-76-87%).

    Perhaps the OP wrote incorrect figures due to this bug in the web site?

  63. +5, funny by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    stuff stuff stuff

  64. Re:Chicken Little by KeensMustard · · Score: 1
    So you DO trust statements that have been repeatedly refuted?

    Interesting.

    Most people (includign myself) tend to distrust in assertions that have been previosuly refuted, and further, to distrust organisations/groups who make those assertions repeatedly, after they have already been refuted. Take climate denialists for example. They claim that during the 1970's claims about Global Cooling dominated climate discussion, much as AGW has since the 1980's. But that claim ahs been shown to be ridiculous.

    Therefore we tend to distrust the claims of climate denialists.

    Then they claimed that the climate was not actually warming. This claim was refuted, but no retraction from the denialists was forthcoming, no explanation as to how their observations were so wrong.

    Therefore we tend to distrust the claims of climate denialists.

    Then they claimed that the climate was actually warming, but due to solar variation. This claim was refuted, but no retraction from the denialists was forthcoming, no explanation as to how their observations were so wrong.

    Therefore we tend to distrust the claims of climate denialists.

    Then they claimed that the climate was actually warming, but for reasons unknown, nobody knows why or could ever know, it's impossible to know. This claim was refuted, but no retraction from the denialists was forthcoming, no explanation as to how their methodology got it so wrong.

    Therefore we tend to distrust the claims of climate denialists.

    Then they claimed that the climate was actually warming, but not warming as much as observation would tend to make us believe because mumble mumble CONSPIRACY. This claim was refuted, but no retraction from the denialists was forthcoming, no explanation as to how their methodology got it so wrong.

    Therefore we tend to distrust the claims of climate denialists.

    Then they claimed that the climate was actually warming, but not warming as much as observation would tend to make us believe because models something something. This claim was refuted, but no retraction from the denialists was forthcoming, no explanation as to how their methodology got it so wrong.

    Therefore we tend to distrust the claims of climate denialists.

    Should I go on?

  65. Re: i'm going with 98% of the scientific community by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

    Actually, the oil industry IS paying for the global warming alarmists.

    I would suggest that you learn something about science. You do not do science by consensus. You do science by facts. The facts are that, so far, all of the AGW models have FAILED to accurately predict future temperature changes and most of them have even failed to predict what has actually happened with temperatures when started with the data of a point in the past.

    --
    The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
  66. Re: i'm going with 98% of the scientific communit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yeah, totes makes sense to fund yourself out of a business model.

    What's the air like on planet dumbass?

  67. Can't reply to what you don't say by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

    How about you stop grandstanding and discuss the post where I specifically mentioned where in the IPCC reports I got my info.

    I would... except you didn't.

    Possibly in some other thread somewhere, but in multiple replies to me in this thread you made no "specific mention" of where you claim to have gotten your data. Not only did you not "specifically mention where," you didn't even say which IPCC report you think you got your information from (in fact, this is the first post you've made that suggests that you know that there even is more than one IPCC report.)

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    1. Re:Can't reply to what you don't say by cbeaudry · · Score: 1

      Oh come off, you are sounding more and more like a petulant little child.

      Talking down to me, trying to ferment in the mind of readers that I'm retarded, lying or just plain ignorant.

      Make an effort and read the other thread replies below your first post and you'll find what I mentioned.

      If you are too lazy, then shut up and move along.

      Your replies in this thread have been all about trying to knock me down a peg and not about addressing the issue.

    2. Re:Can't reply to what you don't say by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

      Possibly in some other thread somewhere, but in multiple replies to me in this thread you made no "specific mention" of where you claim to have gotten your data.

      OK, I did a search of other threads, and see that in fact in a post responding to somebody else, in a different fork, you did make an attempt to back up your assertions.

      First take-away point: you can't expect people to be familiar with something you posted in response to a different person, in a different fork.

      Most of your comments were addressed by riverat1, who points out that you misinterpreted what was pretty clearly stated by the IPCC report.

      What I deduce from your comments is that no, you didn't read any of the IPCC reports, but you did skim them to quote mine, without bothering to actually try to understand what you were reading.

      OK, that's a start. I suggest next you actually read some of these reports. Then you will be able to comment from a position of knowledge, instead of ignorance, and the discussion may at least be somewhat higher level.

      riverat1 doesn't address one comment. You wrote:
      what's important [about climate sensitivity estimates] "is they keep shrinking as we learn more."

      Refining estimates is, of course, how science works-- but, in fact, they haven't been shrinking. The reference you give is a blog that seems to have cherry picked a dozen estimates over a very short time period-- out of perhaps thousands of climate models run over fifty years by dozens of groups on five contents. The first real estimate-- by "real", I mean "using experimentally measured values of IR absorption, and numerically integrating, instead of approximating"-- is of course Manabe and Weatherald 1967. Their estimate, with no feedback other than the assumption of constant humidity, was 2.25C per doubling. The 1979 National Academy of Sciences estimate was 3 C, plus or minus 1.5 C. Since then, the IPCC has been compiling the results of many models to come up with "best guess" estimates of climate sensitivity. These have been:
      1990 IPCC: 1.5 - 4.5 C ( "best guess" of 2.5)
      2nd IPCC: "No strong reasons have emerged to change" these estimates
      3rd IPCC: 1.5 - 4.5 C.
      4th IPCC: 2 - 4.5 C
      5th IPCC: 1.5C - 4.5C

      (These actual IPCC WG-1 reports give detailed explanation of what they mean by "likely," and citations and figures showing where the estimates come from, as well as discussion of the high and low outliers.)

      What is astonishing about climate sensitivity is how little they have changed since the National Academy of Sciences assessment in 1979. Basically, the models have been getting progressively finer scale, with more nodes and more and more of the second and third-order effects incorporated, but the overall result has not changed.

      In fact, the original 1967 estimate, 2.25C, is still within the error bars-- it's quite remarkable how Manabe's very simply model (simple by today's standards: a top-of-the-line supercomputer model by 1967 standards) still holds up.

      --
      http://www.geoffreylandis.com