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Researchers Study "Harbingers of Failure," Consumers Who Habitually Pick Losers
AmiMoJo writes: Is your favorite TV show always getting cancelled? Did you love Crystal Pepsi? Were you an early adopter of the Zune? If you answered yes to these questions, researchers say you might be a "Harbinger of Failure." In a study published in the Journal of Marketing Research, researchers identified a group of consumers whose preferences can predict products that will fail. “Certain customers systematically purchase new products that prove unsuccessful,” wrote the study authors. “Their early adoption of a new product is a strong signal that a product will fail.”
I thought we just called those people Browncoats.
"I have never let my schooling interfere with my education." - Mark Twain
Anyone have an actual link to the actual paper?
The study is only available on HD DVD.
I have discovered a truly marvelous proof of killer sig, which this margin is too narrow to contain.
My Zune still works fine and I'm typing this on a first gen SurfacePro,.....
So, what new products have you bought recently?
Here's a link to the study in case anyone is interested. I don't have the time to go through it in detail right now myself, but perhaps someone else could pick over it.
You'd think that Slashdot editors would try to include that kind of link in the summary as if there's anything worth reading it's the source itself.
You'd think that Slashdot editors would try to include that kind of link in the summary as if there's anything worth reading it's the source itself.
I've been here a few years....I wouldn't think that at all.
My zune still works as well. I use it every day.
Maybe you do but if so you are a good approximation of the entire user base. I'm not sure I've ever actually even seen a Zune in the wild.
Good battery life, large amount of storage.
That's not exactly a compelling argument to buy one over the competing products. Nobody cared about the Zune because there was nothing special or compelling about it. It was a me-too product introduced several years too late to matter. It's most compelling selling point (and compelling is a stretch) was that it wasn't made by Apple. Since people mostly like Apple better than Microsoft that is an argument without very wide appeal. The only way Zune would have had a chance would have been to be technically WAY better than the iPod and it simply wasn't.
Only downside is that you have to use the stupid zune software.
That's a pretty huge downside considering it's basically abandon-ware at this point.
I'm sure the apple fanbois will be shocked that I don't buy a new mp3 player every year when this one still works fine.
Since standalone mp3 player sales are falling like a rock I doubt the apple fanbois you seem to want to sneer at will be shocked or even care. Basically everyone listens to music on their smartphones now. Why carry two devices when one will do the job just fine?
The study, available in MS-Word format in a link posted by a kindly slashdotter, contains this gem. 67% is 75th percentile? People who trust the findings of such articles are the harbingers of onslaught of stupidity.
Careful complaining about stupidity.
Less than 25% bought more than 67% flops, and 75% didn't. That makes people picking 67% flops or more the 75% percentile.
I have anti-charisma and whenever I zig, everyone else in the universe zags. If I like something, that means that 99.99% of the rest of the world doesn't. If I hate something, it's probably going to be a big hit.
Mind you, this isn't just contrarianism. I usually don't even pay much attention to what the rest of the world thinks about something. I only find out after-the-fact that every other human being on planet earth else disagrees with me--on EVERYTHING.
Want to win a political campaign? Hire me to campaign for your opponent.
SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
Certainly some early adopters pick products that don't take off, and mathematically some of these will have done it multiple times.
But the article claims that some people are actually predictors-- that their product choices have predictive value for product failure.
Is this actually true? It's easy to select out a set of people who have bought failed products, and then cull out of that set the ones who have not also sometimes bought successful products. But is this group statistically able to make future predictions?
I'm doubtful. Clearly, the way to not select products that don't grab a market niche... is to not be an early adopter. Lots of products fail; if you're an early adoptor, you're likely to be adopting failed products. If you instead wait to see where a product is going before buying-- you never buy products that fail a month after launch.
FWIW, the original article is here:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/pa...
http://www.geoffreylandis.com
Have gnu, will travel.