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Researchers Study "Harbingers of Failure," Consumers Who Habitually Pick Losers
AmiMoJo writes: Is your favorite TV show always getting cancelled? Did you love Crystal Pepsi? Were you an early adopter of the Zune? If you answered yes to these questions, researchers say you might be a "Harbinger of Failure." In a study published in the Journal of Marketing Research, researchers identified a group of consumers whose preferences can predict products that will fail. “Certain customers systematically purchase new products that prove unsuccessful,” wrote the study authors. “Their early adoption of a new product is a strong signal that a product will fail.”
I thought we just called those people Browncoats.
"I have never let my schooling interfere with my education." - Mark Twain
Is this just another term for hipsters? People who seek out things that everyone else has dismissed for (usually) good reasons.
An online summary of a newspaper pay-walled newspaper reporting on an article... quoting the original with sentences like "At least, according to a group of researchers ..." and "n a study published in the Journal of Marketing Research, researchers ...".
Anyone have an actual link to the actual paper? I have a nagging suspicion that this may actually be an artifact of how the analysis is done.
SLOGEN [ http://ungdomshus.nu : Sebastian cover music]
My Zune still works fine and I'm typing this on a first gen SurfacePro, some products that do their job well just don't sell (in this case because of the worlds worst marketing).
Dear aunt, let's set so double the killer delete select all
This,
because fucking TV companies are retarded for canceling Heroes and Forever, I'm not a harbinwhatever
Moderating "-1, Disagree" is simple censorship. Have the guts to post your opinion. -- Spazmania (174582)
Maybe those "harbingers of failure" are just people who are a bit more persistent in their choices and less fickle, or they are the normal ones: people who pick stuff because they like it, not because their friends do. If a large majority of the population are dedicated followers of fashion, then the remaining group will be over-repesented amongst the buyers of unfashionable items. Watching that group is a great way to predict failure after the fact: if you see a large portions of "harbingers" buying your stuff, then you are probably already looking at slumping sales. That group does not flock to failing products, they are simply the ones left over after the rest has moved on.
A better way to predict success is to do what some companies are already doing: watch who sets the trend, and follow them.
If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...
Screwed up the link to the PDF -- better link to abstract here, where you can get PDF.
I don't want to live in a world where I can't watch DVDs out of the box through Media Center.
Political debates have me rolling my eyes so much I think I got optical whiplash. I should sue. - Foamy The Squirrel
The point of the article is that the same people constantly prove to be early adopters of products that don't succeed in the market.
consumer goods can "come back": Febreeze, for example. http://www.forbes.com/sites/pe...
Family Guy and Firefly were more or less sabotaged by politics. The reason Family Guy came back was Fox executives looked at the sales numbers of the DVDs and basically said "WHO THE FUCK CANCELED THIS?" With Firefly, they wouldn't license it to the Sci Fi channel under any terms, even though they had a commercial success with the Stargate franchise. Even when they pitched a home run with Battlestar Galactica, they wouldn't reconsider.
Not long ago, Longmire was canceled by A&E for bizarre reasons. It had good ratings and was pulling in a few million viewers. They said "the demographic is too old." Uh, ok, anyone in your marketing department notice that young viewers (ie millennials mainly) are the poorest generation in the market right now?
A show getting canceled is not necessarily indicative of anything about its quality or marketability. A large part of the problem is just the delivery mechanism. If all TV were content on demand, you'd probably see a lot more quality shows and many shows currently on getting canceled.
The people who like Timothy's editing of stories on the weekends & the changes that Dice has been bringing to /.
Democracy is a sheep and two wolves deciding what to have for lunch. Freedom is a well armed sheep contesting the issue
The actual report is in the Chicago tribune, behind a paywall. Fuck that and fuck the idiot who submitted this non-story.
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
If we need to pick a 'celebrity' to represent this crowd Bill Gates would be the perfect shoe-in
Other than his first venture - Microsoft - none of his other investments make sense
Furthermore, when Bill Gates stepped down from MS he picked an absolute loser, Steve Ballmer, as his replacement
My zune still works as well. I use it every day.
Maybe you do but if so you are a good approximation of the entire user base. I'm not sure I've ever actually even seen a Zune in the wild.
Good battery life, large amount of storage.
That's not exactly a compelling argument to buy one over the competing products. Nobody cared about the Zune because there was nothing special or compelling about it. It was a me-too product introduced several years too late to matter. It's most compelling selling point (and compelling is a stretch) was that it wasn't made by Apple. Since people mostly like Apple better than Microsoft that is an argument without very wide appeal. The only way Zune would have had a chance would have been to be technically WAY better than the iPod and it simply wasn't.
Only downside is that you have to use the stupid zune software.
That's a pretty huge downside considering it's basically abandon-ware at this point.
I'm sure the apple fanbois will be shocked that I don't buy a new mp3 player every year when this one still works fine.
Since standalone mp3 player sales are falling like a rock I doubt the apple fanbois you seem to want to sneer at will be shocked or even care. Basically everyone listens to music on their smartphones now. Why carry two devices when one will do the job just fine?
The study, available in MS-Word format in a link posted by a kindly slashdotter, contains this gem. 67% is 75th percentile? People who trust the findings of such articles are the harbingers of onslaught of stupidity.
Careful complaining about stupidity.
Less than 25% bought more than 67% flops, and 75% didn't. That makes people picking 67% flops or more the 75% percentile.
I have anti-charisma and whenever I zig, everyone else in the universe zags. If I like something, that means that 99.99% of the rest of the world doesn't. If I hate something, it's probably going to be a big hit.
Mind you, this isn't just contrarianism. I usually don't even pay much attention to what the rest of the world thinks about something. I only find out after-the-fact that every other human being on planet earth else disagrees with me--on EVERYTHING.
Want to win a political campaign? Hire me to campaign for your opponent.
SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
There will inevitably be a group of people who seem to always pick things that don't work, it's the nature of huge numbers. If you get a hundred million quarters, you'll find that there are probably close to a million of them that flip tails a dozen times in a row. Human nature would skew this somewhat, but I doubt this demonstrates people who are attracted to trends that fail - more like they're simply not following the mainstream trends.
Opps, so I am stupid. What a way to start the week.
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
Certainly some early adopters pick products that don't take off, and mathematically some of these will have done it multiple times.
But the article claims that some people are actually predictors-- that their product choices have predictive value for product failure.
Is this actually true? It's easy to select out a set of people who have bought failed products, and then cull out of that set the ones who have not also sometimes bought successful products. But is this group statistically able to make future predictions?
I'm doubtful. Clearly, the way to not select products that don't grab a market niche... is to not be an early adopter. Lots of products fail; if you're an early adoptor, you're likely to be adopting failed products. If you instead wait to see where a product is going before buying-- you never buy products that fail a month after launch.
FWIW, the original article is here:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/pa...
http://www.geoffreylandis.com
Contract manufacturing isn't going to magically make tooling and setup costs just disappear, and some manufacturer isn't going to just eat those and go without a profit. Newer tools (CAD) and processes do make it easier and cheaper to make new designs though. The thing CM is good for is allowing smaller companies to get products to market, because they don't have to have their own factory (which requires a lot of capital), they just pay an existing factory to make it for them. It increases the market size and the number of players in the market. However, it doesn't lower costs; the CM has to make a profit too. It's always cheaper to have your own factory, but only in the long term. Companies obsessed with short-term numbers will sell off their factory and move to CM because in the short term it shows up as a positive, but in the long term they're paying more for manufacturing and also losing out in flexibility (it's easier to make changes, or do exactly what you want, when you control your own manufacturing processes). As an example, there's a good reason that Intel fabs all its chips, and doesn't just farm them out to TSMC like some other chipmakers.
Have gnu, will travel.
Lennart is professional programmer who has had great success. You sound jealous. The software packages you list are actually the most used solutions, not failures. Failure doesn't mean, "I don't like it, waaaaa."
And I'm sure Lennart would tell you that applications are different than kernels, and you're comparing apples and oranges. I know he'd see that, because he's a programmer.
RedHat has huge resources, they have a war chest, they're not in trouble or "stuck with" anything. They've written software in the past that they don't still use. They're not known as being irrational or emotional, they're known for being the business-and-oss-friendly distro. They make pragmatic decisions.
Hate away. But remember, attacking the man is a logical fallacy, not a rational point. You will be understood accordingly.
It really depends. Are you picking stuff which is crap, and the general populace correctly realizes is crap? Or are you picking stuff which is too high-quality for the general market?
How the fuck should I know? I only know that whatever I think or like is not what everyone else does. Whatever I do is not what everyone else does. Whatever I say is not what everyone else says.
Happened again this weekend. Let me explain.
I liked Terminator Salvation and Terminator 3. T3 was a little redundant, but I liked the humor and its much darker, fatalistic take on the future. I thought Salvation was good when I first saw it. And I've come to like it more and more as I've watched it since. Christan Bale's performance is excellent (I knew it would be, since he had already done and excellent job playing basically the exact same role in Reign of Fire), as is Sam Worthington's. The series finally dispensed with that tired old time-travel cliche and moved into the very real war that had been hyped to death repeatedly by previous entries, with only teases that we might one day actually see it. The story was strong. The conclusion was powerful, and raised some interesting questions about what it really means to be a "human." And I really loved the closing shot of John Connor on the radio encouraging humans to keep fighting.
So this weekend, in wake of the new Terminator movie, I saw a whole series of videos of everyone and his brother talking about how awful T3 and Salvation were, and how T2 was so incredible. Now, I liked T2 mind you, but I wouldn't rate it nearly as good as the original. And frankly, I would rather sit down and watch Salvation again than T2. T2 has been shown so much it's become like that song on the radio that you really liked at one time, but you got sick of hearing the 1000th time it was played.
So here we are again. Everyone in the universe hates T3 and Salvation, and thinks T2's shit doesn't stink. Everyone except me, of course. And it's not like I set out to disagree, I just did--yet again.
SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
Slashdot is the ultimate mecca for the "Harbingers of Doom", a site literally ripe with people who will vociferously back the worst of products that obviously have no future. In fact I use this very site myself to predict failure for some things, as there are a lot of repeat posters here that spend 24x7 backing future failed products.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley