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Calculating the Truck-Factor of Popular Open Source Projects

An anonymous reader writes: The Truck Factor describes the minimal number of developers that have to be hit by a truck (or quit) before a project is incapacitated. Wikipedia defines it as a "measurement of the concentration of information in individual team members. A high truck factor means that many individuals know enough to carry on and the project could still succeed even in very adverse events." The term is also known by bus factor/number. In this article, the authors calculate the truck factor for 133 popular GitHub applications. Spoiler, but unsurprising: Linux ranks near the top (meaning that it's highly resilient).

79 comments

  1. Breaker-19 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Going 10-10

  2. Re:morbid story is morbid by RyuuzakiTetsuya · · Score: 2

    It's morbid as hell, but for anyone who works with, or hell RELIES, any of the packages at the TF1 level, if any freak accident happens, you could be fucked bad.

    It's morbid, but it's something we all need to consider with any software project.

    --
    Non impediti ratione cogitationus.
  3. Re:morbid story is morbid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Fuck your software projects, I'm already dead! I don't care!

  4. Old news by Coryoth · · Score: 4, Informative

    Over 15 years ago Segfault.org reported their classic: "What If Linus Torvalds Gets Hit By A Bus?" - An Empirical Study. If we learned anything from that, it's that we also have to watch out for muffins.

    1. Re:Old news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Linus's freak accident in the muffin factory is a cautionary tale for us all.

    2. Re:Old news by fisted · · Score: 1

      we hope that this study will eventually be published in peer-reviewed Linux publications such as Linux Journal and Slashdot. Well, Linux Journal.

      I like how even in 2000 /. apparently was already garbage.

  5. Re: morbid story is morbid by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 3, Funny

    Not as f*cked as the dev that was hit by the truck, you insensitive clod!

    --
    "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
  6. Where is the code? by friedmud · · Score: 2

    I wanted to run this on my own GitHub hosted project. But the "article" has nothing but a huge link to a LICENSE and README file.

    Bummer.

    1. Re:Where is the code? by pegdhcp · · Score: 1

      I was starting to suspect my git account being faulty :) There is nothing over there...

  7. Could be worse by thaneross · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You know what's significantly worse than an Open Source project with TF1? A closed source project with a TF1.

    1. Re:Could be worse by JaredOfEuropa · · Score: 2

      Depends. If you are a manager responsible for a service that relies on the TF1 project, there are two scenarios.
      Close source TF1 goes bust: "Unfortunately this happens sometimes, but at least we get to sue the company for damages"
      Open source RF1 goes bust: "You used FOSS for this project? How could you have been so irresponsible?!"

      To be fair, that was 5 years ago, and my last few clients (large corporations) are wising up to this particular risk. When they buy software, they do assess the risk of the vendor going out of business and weigh that against the impact of losing the software. When they use open source, they implement a strategy to mitigate that risk, by identifying alternatives, or by assessing the feasibility to provide continued support of the software with in-house resources or external consultants.

      --
      If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...
    2. Re:Could be worse by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You know what's heavier than a tonne of feathers? A tonne of bowling balls.

    3. Re:Could be worse by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No it's not, because if all the key developers left simultaneously from a closed source software company with a reasonably successful product, job ads would start running immediately, and a new crew would be hired from the existing licensing and support revenues.

    4. Re:Could be worse by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Exactly who do you sue in a TF1 company? The truck driver?

  8. Tragic, but not catastrophic by Sarten-X · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I once joined a project where one of the core developers had mysteriously disappeared. He had been one of the early designers, and was the only person who actually knew how his areas worked.

    It took a small team about a year to fully understand all of his work, but the project survived. To this day, four years after his disappearance (three after his body was pulled from a river), we still find some code with his name on it, and it's a tradition to assign it to the newest team member to read, understand and deliver a report on how it works. It's a rough process, but we got through it eventually.

    His legacy on the project is as an object lesson in the necessity of good commenting, and a reminder to management that they must be wary of one-man teams.

    --
    You do not have a moral or legal right to do absolutely anything you want.
    1. Re:Tragic, but not catastrophic by davester666 · · Score: 5, Funny

      Maybe next time, just ask him to explain his code instead of killing him and throwing him in the river.

      --
      Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
    2. Re: Tragic, but not catastrophic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      Have you read the code?
      It was all the team could do.

    3. Re: Tragic, but not catastrophic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      Man, I've heard of places with tough code review sessions, but I have to say this is too much!

      Okay, okay, I'll make sure my comments in my code are actually readable...

    4. Re:Tragic, but not catastrophic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Maybe they asked but he refused. Increasingly brutal methods of information failed, they dumped him into river and proceed with actions described. Ever since the cidez delivered by teams have documentation and are actually commented(overlaping but nit the same).

    5. Re:Tragic, but not catastrophic by foreverdisillusioned · · Score: 1

      Bookmarking this post for the next time someone tries to argue that black humor is never funny.

  9. Re:morbid story is morbid by NoNonAlphaCharsHere · · Score: 5, Funny

    I think there are bigger issues going on than if an open source project dies if someone gets hit by a truck.
    Seriously, you guys think that some stupid piece of software is more important than human life...

    OK, if it makes you feel better, we'll call it the "Girl Factor". That's the number of developers who have to discover girls before the project is incapacatated.

  10. Larger projects? by thogard · · Score: 1

    It would have been more interesting to see major projects like Apache/http, gcc or core python and perl but I expect they had an easy way to pull their data from GitHub. It also reads like a rejected academic paper. It should have started out the list stating that TF=1 is bad and TF>1 is better.

  11. Re:morbid story is morbid by gweihir · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Actually, by all relevant measures any important software project can more important than a human life. That is not nice, but it is reality. That we usually do not have to sacrifice human life to keep software projects going is nice and I am all for it. It is however a luxury we have because circumstances allow it. But look at Karshi for example, and you will find that this is not universally true even in modern and more enlightened times.

    But that is not what this story is actually about. It is about contingencies and insurance.

    --
    Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  12. Homebrew makes a lot of sense by CODiNE · · Score: 1

    At first I wasn't sure if it was the OS X package manager or the Vagrant VM... okay it's the package manager.

    That makes a LOT of sense. Many of those package install scripts are handled by someone dedicated to that project who wants it working on their Mac. So there's hundreds of different build scripts with a large variety of project maintainers. In this case they'd probably be better off separating the build script authors from the main project authors, that would probably drop the track factor of Homebrew by a lot. Being able to make a build script for top for example doesn't mean you can maintain the homebrew project itself.

    --
    Cwm, fjord-bank glyphs vext quiz
  13. Slow news day? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Who really gives a flying fuck?

  14. Re:morbid story is morbid by gweihir · · Score: 2

    That should be "Karoshi" with a bar over the "o". Cut&paste did not work...

    --
    Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  15. Re:morbid story is morbid by binarylarry · · Score: 2

    Why buy the horse when you get the milk for free?

    And what happens when the free milk gets hit by a truck?

    --
    Mod me down, my New Earth Global Warmingist friends!
  16. Re:not statistically likely by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Mr. Trump, ya fihed.

  17. Truck factor of Github? by aNonnyMouseCowered · · Score: 2

    Maybe we should be asking what's the truck factor (or is that nuclear strike factor?) of Github. What's the effect of developers centralizing on on the ONE opensource hosting site? Seriously what happens when Github is incapacitated by say a malicious state actor (put your favorite cyberbaddy here)? I know it's git, so there should be "mirrors" everywhere for the big projects (which have a high truck factor to begin with). So TF has to be divided further by the resiliency of the host site.

    1. Re:Truck factor of Github? by x0ra · · Score: 1

      On the same idea, what's the truck factor of AWS ?

    2. Re:Truck factor of Github? by i.r.id10t · · Score: 1

      Instead of a truck (servers don't typically go walking around or for a drive in the country) perhaps AWS needs a Simian Factor ? http://whatis.techtarget.com/d...

      --
      Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos
    3. Re:Truck factor of Github? by Dutch+Gun · · Score: 3, Informative

      Well, that's the beauty of distributed source control. Everyone who works on those projects has a complete repository of their own. The website provides a convenient synchronization point, but it's only authoritative by designation, not by any differences in the data. If there's a project on Git, and no one else has even bothered to keep a local copy of it somewhere, how much is really lost if GitHub goes away? If it's open source and no one else has even bothered to use the code anywhere else, again, how much are we losing? At that point, the project is already dead, and the general consensus is that it wasn't worth using anywhere. Not all code is really worth saving forever and ever. Hopefully GitHub is taking care to ensure that this doesn't happen, but active projects have no need to really worry.

      So, I think the TF isn't really affected by the resiliency of the hosting site for distributed source control projects. The only thing it would do is potentially inconvenience developers for a time as they search for a new method/host to synchronize their development.

      --
      Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
    4. Re:Truck factor of Github? by Beezlebub33 · · Score: 3

      That actually sound like a decent idea: every 2 or 3 years, GitHub gets wiped (or gets archived). And then everybody who cares can push again. Will reduce the cruft and will provide an incentive to increase the Truck Factor.

      --
      The more people I meet, the better I like my dog.
    5. Re:Truck factor of Github? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So WHAT software is around to HELP analyze the code?
      Graphics flowchart software? cflow
      others that do what?

  18. How many of those scenarios by Ukab+the+Great · · Score: 1

    involve the truck being driven by another developer on the project?

  19. Re: morbid story is morbid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Horse...milk?
    WTF

  20. Bitcoin TF=3 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I guess it's like putting all your eggs in 3 baskets.

    USD on the other hand must be close to TF=INF for practicality.

    1. Re:Bitcoin TF=3 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Only 3? We can totally get this done

  21. Truck Factor is meaningless in OSS by goruka · · Score: 2

    Truck Factor is more related to losing developers key to a project to a point the project can' t be satisfied with the assigned budget or time constraints.
    In the case of Open Source Software, if the project is popular enough, at much the project will be delayed until new developers can understand the code, but that's about it. Everything is there for anyone to continue the work and there are no time or budget constraints.

    1. Re:Truck Factor is meaningless in OSS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There are very few projects, however, which will pass this "popular enough" criterion.

      At a minimum, if new developers take months/years to understand the code, the project may lose significant mindshare (especially if competing projects improve themselves during the time period that the project is effectively in stasis. Many open source projects do have time constraints, even if they are not explicit: technology moves ahead no matter how much time developers have to spend on the project.

  22. Bad night to be dyslexic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I was hoping for news on the fuck tractor and when it's coming to my town.

  23. Greetings, Focus-Group. by newbie_fantod · · Score: 1

    Is Dice Holdings just floating this story in order to get quality feedback on how to justify their next attempt at seizing "abandoned" projects on SourceForge?

  24. Re: morbid story is morbid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Is the concept of mammalian nipples foreign to you?

  25. "Girl Factor" hit procps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    She turned into a wife! Being a hard-core Catholic, she popped out 10 kids! This turns out to reduce hacking time.

    On the bright side, at least I made copies of nerd DNA.

  26. Need 2 guys to help out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    bitcoin has a TF of only 3.

  27. Re:morbid story is morbid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    OK, if it makes you feel better, we'll call it the "Girl Factor". That's the number of developers who have to discover girls before the project is incapacatated.

    It doesn't make him feel better if you are talking about developers getting girl friends, you insensitive clod. Why do you think he has time to post on Slashdot?

  28. Re: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    All projects start at TF1

  29. Re:morbid story is morbid by Bert64 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It's actually less of a concern than it is with small vendor closed source...
    There have been a few small software vendors where the company owner or core developer was killed, which then resulted not only in the ceasing of development, but also in the source code either being lost or tied up in legal disputes for years.

    For something that's open and has user interest, it can be forked and development can be continued by someone else...

    --
    http://spamdecoy.net - free throwaway anonymous email - avoid spam!
  30. Definition by RuffMasterD · · Score: 1

    Japanese for "death from overwork".

    --
    Human Rights, Article 12: Freedom from Interference with Privacy, Family, Home and Correspondence
    1. Re:Definition by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Exactly.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  31. Re: morbid story is morbid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    ReiserFS?

  32. Re:morbid story is morbid by PolygamousRanchKid+ · · Score: 1

    You may not want to think about it, but you are going to die sometime. That's it. A lot of people are afraid of death. I have no fear of death, because I know it is inevitable. The philosopher Thomas Nagel wrote in his work "Mortal Questions" that death, was a part of living. So you should view death as "completing the totality of your existence".

    Maybe a better example for nerds, I'm watching "Space:1999" right now on broadcast TV . . . dubbed in German! Anyway, for some reason, a planet of folks become immortal. They have some kind of cell regeneration that makes them live forever. Their society degenerates and becomes corrupt. Because death gives life a meaning. Without the thought of death, living has no meaning.

    These morbid jokes about Truck Factor or Bus Factor in no means devalue the worth of life. They are simply us looking into the future, and tapping on a subject, that most of us would rather avoid thinking about.

    --
    Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
  33. Re:morbid story is morbid by geggo98 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    It's morbid as hell, [...]

    To avoid the morbid feeling, I prefer a different wording: "Lottery factor", meaning when someone wins the lottery, cashes the money and never comes back. I imagine the person living on a personal tropical paradise without any access to the internet. So this person won't be reachable, won't contribute but is not dead but enjoys life. Same effect, less morbid.

  34. Re:morbid story is morbid by Carewolf · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It's actually less of a concern than it is with small vendor closed source...
    There have been a few small software vendors where the company owner or core developer was killed, which then resulted not only in the ceasing of development, but also in the source code either being lost or tied up in legal disputes for years.

    A much bigger problem with closed source software: The company making it gets bought by its largest competitor, usually the exact product and company you tried to avoid, which then kills the product you were using and tries to force all the costumers to convert.

  35. Re:mythical man month by Cederic · · Score: 1

    Completely fucking orthogonal.

    Stop spouting shit if you don't understand it.

  36. Harsh code review? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Imposter Syndrome, perhaps?

  37. Re: morbid story is morbid by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

    Not as f*cked as the dev that was hit by the truck, you insensitive clod!

    He's done fucking, unless they send his body to the "You stab 'em, we stab 'em again" necrophiliac mortuary.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  38. Re:morbid story is morbid by romiz · · Score: 1

    Cut & paste did work. Unicode on Slashdot failed, as it does since 2002.

    The Slashdot admins have an irrational fear of bidirectional characters, and neither a blacklist nor a whitelist can calm them.

  39. Re:morbid story is morbid by gweihir · · Score: 1

    Ah, I see. Thanks for the hint!

    --
    Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  40. Truck factor? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    WTF people? There is already a term for this and it involves getting hit by a BUS, not a truck.

    Now get off my lawn.

    1. Re:Truck factor? by PPH · · Score: 1

      bus factor

      Politically incorrect. Busses: good. Trucks: bad.

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
    2. Re:Truck factor? by tepples · · Score: 1

      It's Sunday. There are no buses. (Source: fwcitilink.com)

  41. Re:morbid story is morbid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'd get bored not being at work. Work is fun, most of the time. I would probably just work part time.

  42. Re: morbid story is morbid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not if the relevant factor is human lives.

  43. Re:morbid story is morbid by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Funny

    OK, if it makes you feel better, we'll call it the "Girl Factor". That's the number of developers who have to discover girls before the project is incapacatated.

    Most of the developers that I know are more likely to get hit by the truck.

  44. Moderation spoofing (5:erocS) by tepples · · Score: 1

    2002 is when Slashdot administrators deliberately broke Unicode to plug a exploit that used right-to-left control characters to spoof comment scores (demonstrated here). SoylentNews, on the other hand, uses a fork of Slashdot's software that has been fixed to have better Unicode support.

  45. really big problem at small nonprofits by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    with a dozen or so employees

    All but one will be involved with 5 year planning, meetings, programs, trips, conferences, all the "fun" things.

    The one employee (usually a guy with a tech background) will have all the "scut work" dumped on them. Stuff like accounting / bookkeeping, paying the bills writing the checks, the donor and grantmaking and fundraising mailing lists, keeping the network and computers running in spite of facebook and twitter. Processing credit card and ACH donations, web site updates, everything nobody else wants to do

    When this guy reaches 62 and retires, panic and disorder ensue. Hint to governing boards: If all of the first category are women, you can bet they pulled the "I am offended temper tantrum" stunt to shirk their share of the hard work. Board needs to impose cross-training mandates NOW, before the loss of this single employee makes you look like a bunch of horse's backsides.

  46. TF1 (disambiguation) by tepples · · Score: 1

    How many people would need to get hit by a bus to end maintenance of Valve's closed-source Team Fortress 2? Two? Because one thing's for certain: Valve can't count to three.

  47. Why is it always developers by Big+Hairy+Ian · · Score: 1

    I've known business analysts, testers and stake holders who were just as if not more vital to a project than any one of the developers.

    --

    Build a Man a Fire, and He'll Be Warm for a Day. Set a Man on Fire, and He'll Be Warm for the Rest of His Life.

    1. Re:Why is it always developers by WallyL · · Score: 1

      Because this site is mostly for developers, not BAs, testers, or stake holders.

  48. Ashton-Tate Framework by John+Bayko · · Score: 1

    This actually happened at an important point in software history. Under founder George Tate, Ashton-Tate ("Ashton" was marketing fiction) was one of the few software companies competitive with Microsoft, although they had a different initial focus (desktop databases). They finally went head to head when Ashton-Tate bought Forefront, which was developing an integrated office suite, before Microsoft had fully committed to the concept.

    There had been office suites of a sort before, generally bundles of software that didn't actually interact (the Osborn computer included bundled software worth more than the actual computer, a big selling point), but Framework was fully integrated, including its own development environment and desktop. It was essentially Windows before Windows, built on much better technology (similar to the "Lisp environment machines", but on normal hardware).

    Unfortunately Tate died of a heart attack shortly after its introduction (around 1984, the Macintosh year). He had a vision for the product and was basing the company's future on it, but unfortunately everyone else had the mindset of running a database application company, and had no idea what to do with this thing. Rather than treating and promoting it as the new platform for a whole ecosystem of new software (basically an OS), they treated it as just another application, and while it had the potential to be the dominant OS before Windows was even finished, it eventually became just another forgotten Windows application.

  49. Re:morbid story is morbid by johanwanderer · · Score: 1

    I work in a small software company, and a lot of our big clients require us to have an escrow of the product's source code for the duration of the contract.

  50. My projects are safe. by bobmajdakjr · · Score: 1

    Around here all I have to worry about are soccer moms in minivans and rich snobby women driving Teslas to Neman Marcus. Not so much trucks. My projects are safe. For now.

  51. Re:mythical man month by allo · · Score: 1

    no, it's related. Think about it.

  52. Systemd TF? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So, what would be the truck factor of systemd?

    Remember that it doesn't absolutely need to be a truck, a hellfire missile would do the trick as well...

    captcha: flatten