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Taking the Lawyers Out of the Loop
An Associated Press story carried by the Christian Science Monitor suggests that expert systems can already replace lawyers in a great many disputes (especially low-level ones, where the disputants don't need or don't want to see each other), and the realm of legal expertise that can be embodied in silicon will only grow. The article spends most of its time on Modria, a company whose software is being used in Ohio to "resolve disputes over tax assessments and keep them out of court, and a New York-based arbitration association has deployed it to settle medical claims arising from certain types of car crashes," but mentions a few others as well. Modria's software has also been used to negotiate hundreds of divorces in the Netherlands, including ones with areas of dispute: "If they reach a resolution, they can print up divorce papers that are then reviewed by an attorney to make sure neither side is giving away too much before they are filed in court."
if ( $the_wife) then
give($goldmine)
if ( the_husband) then
give($theshaft)
I find that hard to believe. I have had 4 legal experiences in my time.
1) a divorce - (family law)
2) a labor dispute over a layoff - (labor law)
3) a private investment - (securities law)
4) A copyright filing - (intellectual property law)
In every case, there were some areas that could have been algorithmic, but in many dimensions on each one there were things that came about from advice from the attorney on how to position myself and under what laws I could make a case, which has a lot to do with language parsing and the definitions of the words used and their context. Unless this was paired with something like Watson which can determine meaning from context, I don't see this as being anything more than a paralegal replacement, but not a lawyer replacement.
But then the lawyers could just lower their prices to compete. Could actually make prices come down over a long enough time.
Personally, I think that we waste a lot of time and money paying professionals to do things that could much easier be accomplished by those who specialize in a very small task. I probably don't need an actual MD to tell me that my kid has an ear infection. It's probably a pretty simple diagnosis. Why not let somebody without an MD prescribe a limited number of medications?
I'm sure people hire lawyers for lots of things that are actually quite simple to somebody who focuses on the rules. You probably don't need a law degree to understand the law in a very limited field.
Some places are starting to catch on. I can get me teeth cleaned by a dental hygienist who owns their own office, no dentist is involved. I can get my flu shot at the pharmacy, no doctor involved. Hopefully someday we won't have to see a doctor to get a cast on a broken limb. You'll just go to somebody who specializes in diagnosing broken bones and getting them fixed, instead of waiting in a doctors office with lots of people with infectious diseases.
Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
>Hmm, do "amicable partners" actually get divorced?
Sometimes you don't hate the other person, you just realize that they aren't who you want to spend the rest of your life with. Lots of reasons for that - misjudging the other person from the start, you misjudging yourself, or one or both of you changed significantly during the relationship.
Even if you are angry, that doesn't mean you're also spiteful and greedy; you may hate the other partner but aren't trying to screw him/her over.
Of course, those types of divorces don't make the news; they just quietly happen.