Are We Reaching the Electric Car Tipping Point?

HughPickens.com writes: Geoff Ralston has an interesting essay explaining why it is likely that electric car penetration in the U.S. will take off at an exponential rate over the next 5-10 years rendering laughable the paltry predictions of future electric car sales being made today. Present projections assume that electric car sales will slowly increase as the technology gets marginally better, and as more and more customers choose to forsake a better product (the gasoline car) for a worse, yet "greener" version. According to Ralston this view of the future is, simply, wrong. — electric cars will take over our roads because consumers will demand them. "Electric cars will be better than any alternative, including the loud, inconvenient, gas-powered jalopy," says Ralston. "The Tesla Model S has demonstrated that a well made, well designed electric car is far superior to anything else on the road. This has changed everything."

The Tesla Model S has sold so well because, compared to old-fashioned gasoline cars it is more fun to drive, quieter, always "full" every morning, more roomy, and it continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements. According to Ralston the tipping point will come when gas stations, not a massively profitable business, start to go out of business as many more electric cars are sold, making gasoline powered vehicles even more inconvenient. When that happens even more gasoline car owners will be convinced to switch. Rapidly a tipping point will be reached, at which point finding a convenient gas station will be nearly impossible and owning a gasoline powered car will positively suck. "Elon Musk has ushered in the age of the electric car, and whether or not it, too, was inevitable, it has certainly begun," concludes Ralston. "The future of automotive transportation is an electric one and you can expect that future to be here soon."

Comments

quickly to be followed by self-driving cars

[AttillaTheNun]

At least that is my hope. The concept of car ownership is archaic. I look forward to the offloading all the associated penalty costs of car ownership in favour of a service model.

Re:quickly to be followed by self-driving cars

[Anonymous Coward]

I couldn't be the recession that we've been suffering through for the last 8 years.

Or the increasingly reliable nature of vehicles in the past 30 years.

Or the higher cost of vehicles driven by crazy Government mileage requirements.

Nope, it has to be because everyone wants to be some communal hippy living in dense housing and riding stinky buses.

Re:quickly to be followed by self-driving cars

[MozeeToby]

At some point, the freeway system will go autonomous only with no set speed limit. That will be the day the last non-autonomous, non-just-for-fun car gets sold. When you can hit the freeway at 120mph, getting nearly the same gas mileage as today thanks to drafting, no one is going to want the alternative.

Re:quickly to be followed by self-driving cars

[ShadowRangerRIT]

Funny, for all those "crazy Government mileage requirements", I find that the cost of new cars has generally risen at slower than the rate of inflation, even as they offer more features, better reliability, and (thanks to said mileage requirements) lower fuel costs.

Case example: My parents bought a Geo Prizm LSi (also marketed as the Toyota Corolla) back in 1990. At the time, it cost ~$12.3K. It was much smaller than the current Toyota Corolla, the electrical system sucked (adjusting the power windows dimmed the headlights and radio), etc. The LSi add-on features (power windows) are all standard now, the MPG has gone from 21-22/26-28 MPG city/highway under the old system (that rated all cars better than what you'd actually get), to 27-29/36-38 MPG under the new, more realistic rating system (and remember, the car is actually bigger now than it was), which reduces your fuel costs by a third or so. Yes, the cost is up, between $19.5K and $22K for most models (remember, the 2015 low end model is still better on features than the top end model of 1990). But that $12.3K from 1990 is ~$22.4K in 2015 dollars (according to U.S. Inflation Calculator). So the price actually dropped in inflation adjusted dollars, while the car got bigger, more efficient, and got more "luxury" features.

Remind me how big bad government mileage requirements are making cars so expensive?

Truck Stops, Gas Stations, etc

[Sir_Eptishous]

I have a relative who is a part owner of a truck stop. I have heard how low the profits/margins are for selling gas. He tells me all the profit at those places is from the junk food inside... Apparently the deals they make with the gasoline/diesel suppliers are so bad there is almost no profit in selling gas.

Re:Truck Stops, Gas Stations, etc

[DigiShaman]

Randomly, the pump will display "please see register for receipt" upon selecting the print option. I've see it being random as the person after me (a friend), had his receipt print just fine. It's a fucking scam to lure people into the store and buy shit.

How do they fare in colder climates?

[gaudior]

How reliable are they in winter driving conditions? How is the battery efficiency affected by temperature? What about cabin heating? I'm having a hard time seeing any of the current crop being adopted for year-round use in areas that get more than a smattering of snow, or a few days below freezing per year.

Quite a few obstacles remain.

[nimbius]

Living in Los Angeles, the age of the electric car has been upon us for quite some time. everyone from BMW to nissan makes popular electric cars and sells them for a reasonable price here. The problem comes when you aren't in the second largest city in america.

During a business trip to an office in Ohio I learned firsthhand how awkward it must be to own one of these vehicles. In Blue Ash, Ohio I saw one or two teslas, but Ohio doesn't have a tax incentive like Los Angeles gives people to buy them. So, owners in Ohio aren't exactly the average joe. It seemed a status symbol, as though they mostly buy the car out of a desire to be perceived as 'elite' and progressive. Charging also seemed cumbersome. In LA we charge at parking garages for low cost, or free. most employers offer ChaDeMO charger stations as a perk in their garage. taking your car into the shop? its charged when you get out. Finally dedicated charging ports at some gas stations are also prevalent. None of this infrastructure existed in the cities I visited in Ohio because none of it had to. Gas was $3 a gallon, or less. Traffic was smooth flowing and quick, and mileage largely adherent to highway driving conditions above 50 miles per hour. There is also no public transit, no park and ride to charge the car at while you commute the rest of the way in by light rail.

Ohio also has winter weather to contend with. Most people owned larger SUV's or cars with all-wheel-drive in anticipation of snowy or icy roads, and temperatures well below those we're accustomed to in southern California. The car has to warm and cool much more actively, which im not sure is something electric cars can handle.

Disclaimer: I own a tesla. owning it in the midwest would seem to be a chore.

Trucks will be hybrids, not pure EV

[sjbe]

And frankly, current ranges on EV's make them pretty much useless for trucks. Who really wants to stop for a couple hours a couple times a day?

You won't see pure EV trucks for a long time. What you'll see is a power train similar to that on locomotives. Diesel engine charging electric motors with a battery bank to deal with the excess. It's very efficient, huge torque and the technology is well understood. I'm kind of surprised we aren't seeing it already.