The Nations That Will Be Hardest Hit By Water Shortages By 2040

merbs writes: Water access is going to be one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century. As climate change dries out the already dry areas and makes the wet ones wetter, we're poised to see some radical civilizational shifts. For one, a number of densely populated areas will come under serious water stress—which analysts fear will lead to strife, thirst, and even violent conflict. With that in mind, the World Resource Institute has assembled a new report projecting which nations are most likely to be hardest hit by water stress in coming decades—nations like Bahrain, Israel, Palestine, and Spain lead the pack.

Comments

Alaska

[Anonymous Coward]

I love how Alaska gets included with the rest of the nation even though we have nothing close to a water shortage with all the glaciers up here. We should have been grouped with Canada.

Re:Alaska

[NicBenjamin]

If you're gonna divide it up like that the Great Lakes bit of the Midwest should have no shortage, either. The prairie bit of the Midwest is in much bigger trouble because the Oglala Aquifer is being drawn down too much, and the Mississippi is probably gonna be schizo with more evaporation (ie: lots of heat meaning more evaporation, and some years the rain'll come down within the Mississippi valley and they'll have too much, and others it won't and they'll have too little). The Pacific Northwest should also be fine.

I suspect the South, Southwest, and Cali will have the biggest problems.

No idea about the Northeast.

Re:Alaska

[hawguy]

I love how Alaska gets included with the rest of the nation even though we have nothing close to a water shortage with all the glaciers up here. We should have been grouped with Canada.

Did you read the headline? The Nations That Will Be Hardest Hit By Water Shortages By 2040. Unless Alaska has somehow seceded from the union, I don't see how they could group Alaska with Canada.

There are plenty of other US state drought maps that you can use if you really care about a single state's water, but don't complain that a global representation of drought was not local enough for you.

Re:Alaska

[Z00L00K]

It would make a lot more sense to build up a map of regions where areas with the highest shortages are plotted, much like the US drought monitor but worldwide.

There are areas within countries with a lot of water like Canada where there's a shortage because the population density is too high as well as areas where there's no shortage of water even though it's arid because few people live there.

Re:Alaska

[rtb61]

A lot of weather forecasting is done based upon analysis of past data with prior weather patterns. More accurate future weather forecasting will require analysis of future stable weather patterns. Localising data is very difficult at the moment as weather patterns oscillate somewhere between past weather patterns and future developing weather patterns.

Water shortages are subject to water usage at particular locations, so more water in areas not developed to make use of it and less water in areas fully developed to make use of existing availability.

Water as a resource is unlike other resources and totally bound to energy availability. With surplus cheap energy, there is no such thing as a water shortage, as you could condense it straight out of the atmosphere.

Re:Alaska

[userw014]

Drought is relative too. An ecology evolved for wetter conditions can suffer when precipitation falls - even to levels that would be considered "wet" elsewhere. The northern part of the lower peninsula of the State of Michigan has been under fire-watch/no-burn orders over the summer for the past few years, even though Michigan is surrounded by the Great Lakes. A few years back, parts of the south around Georgia were under drought conditions.

There is fraking (hydraulic fracturing) extraction occurring in Michigan - and because of shallow water tables in some areas, the fraking operators are demanding large quantities of water from local water systems because on-site wells can't supply their needs (to make a speculative profit.) These demands on local water systems exceed the capacity of systems designed for residential and light industrial use - and might require local communities to overbuild local water systems for transient gain by non-local companies and investors.

Of course, given the importance Californian agriculture has for the whole of the United States, drought conditions there impact everyone

Speculation on top of speculation

[Crashmarik]

Oh well, I suppose people with very stable and safe lives need to find something to fear.

Re:Speculation on top of speculation

[garyisabusyguy]

"Those who fail to plan, plan to fail"
-Sphinx

That's messed up

[fustakrakich]

By 2040 we should have all that crap sorted out. If there are any shortages, it's because some corrupt bastard is mucking up the works. There is absolutely no longer any technical reason to suffer shortages of any kind anywhere.

Re:That's messed up

[Anonymous Coward]

some corrupt bastard is mucking up the works.

Why would you think they would be any fewer in 2040?

Re:That's messed up

[MightyMartian]

I'm assuming you're talking about desalination. That requires a lot of energy, and there's no way short of a revolution in fusion technology that you could use that to produce enough water for irrigation of any significant amount of stable land. And you're still left with the problem may users of aquifers are suffering; way to much salt.

A succinct change in rain patterns will almost certainly turn land now under cultivation into semi arid lands, without sufficient fresh water to reverse the problem.

Re:That's messed up

[hawguy]

By 2040 we should have all that crap sorted out. If there are any shortages, it's because some corrupt bastard is mucking up the works. There is absolutely no longer any technical reason to suffer shortages of any kind anywhere.

It can take a decade or longer to do an environmental review, get permits, and build a large desalination plant (and decades more to build a nuclear plant to power it). Building a dam or large reservoir can take even longer (and still needs time to fill).

While some progress will be made, don't count on the problem being solved in 25 years.

Re:That's messed up

[kenwd0elq]

Any major change in rain patterns will likely cause water shortages in SOME places and water surpluses in others.The desert Southwest of the United States was probably fertile and green 700 years ago; after all, the Anasazi had a civilization of SOME sort then, and there hasn't been any water around in the last few hundred. Everything goes in cycles; don't expect that every change will be a bad one.

Re:That's messed up

[fustakrakich]

I'm assuming you're talking about desalination.

There is that. The bigger issue is transportation. There's plenty of water, just not where we need it at the moment. And we have to restore contaminated water. Time to build some big-ass, nuclear powered tunnel boring machines, and pipe it around like oil, gas, and battery acid. And after bailing out the bankers, I don't want hear anybody crying that we don't have the money. There's plenty of that also, just not where we need it at the moment...

Re:That's messed up

[MightyMartian]

And what if that rainfall change leads to greater rainfall on one side of a national border and far leads arable conditions on the other? Imagine of large swathes of the Midwest are rendered unsuitable for large scale agriculture, because rainbelts have moved into Canada. Suddenly the United States' food security is in a foreign country's hands.

There are serious geopolitical ramifications of male changes in rainfall patterns.

Re:That's messed up

[MightyMartian]

Read about the water wars in California and neighboring states when the Colorado River was tapped to turn desert into oasis. Any jurisdiction that imagines it is just going to wholesale grab another jurisdiction's water is likely in for a rude surprise. Now imagine if those jurisdictions are in different nations.

Re:That's messed up

[hawguy]

So you're saying that government is the major impediment to progress? I agree!

No, its the under educated voters that vote on emotion and sound bites rather than issues. Oh yeah I guess the people and the government are one and the same.

Re:That's messed up

[Crashmarik]

You Americans and your "might makes right." Just remember, they might burn the White House again.

How much do they want to do the job ?

I am pretty sure if you put it on kickstarter you can probably hit stretch goals for the capitol and all of K street.

Re:That's messed up

[gsslay]

By 2040 we should have all that crap sorted out. If there are any shortages, it's because some corrupt bastard is mucking up the works.

One thing we're never likely to suffer any shortage of is corrupt bastards mucking up the works.

strife in israel and palastine?

[xxxJonBoyxxx]

So...water shortage might cause Israel and Palestine to have issues, then?

Re:strife in israel and palastine?

[skaag]

I was going to say that the report is out of date. Israel have already solved their water shortage problems, forever, and they have so much to spare that they have begun exporting water to neighboring countries. I believe this could work in Israel's favor, as they forge a path to peace with the region.

Re:strife in israel and palastine?

[RabidReindeer]

I believe this could work in Israel's favor, as they forge a path to peace with the region.

So when do they stop bulldozing and start forging?

And yes, I know the Palestinians are launching rockets. The best way to achieve peace isn't tit-for-tat. Ask Ireland.

Re:Great

[MightyMartian]

Christ will this lying meme ever fucking die?

Obviously...

[tlambert]

Obviously, it will be the ones with inadequate desalination plants.

More Fearmongering

[LordLucless]

Uh-huh. Here in Australia, we had one of these guys screeching about the perpetual drought Australia was going to be enduring. The government poured billions into building the biggest desalination plant in the country. Then the drought ended, the dams filled, and the desal plant is idling along, producing nothing, but costing half a million a day.

Re:More Fearmongering

[barc0001]

Weather *is* cyclical you know, and with climate change some places are going to be hit with even more aggressive patterns.

Or there could be other problems brewing. I'm not sure what the water table usage in Australia is, have you looked into it? It's one of those things that can be really bad when the water runs out but nobody thinks about because it's out of sight, out of mind. Just look at California - they've been drawing way more out of the aquifers than can possibly be replenished for decades and it's causing the actual ground to sink. One day not too far off those aquifers will be dry and then their entire agricultural sector will be screwed.

Re:More Fearmongering

[LordLucless]

Some rural areas might rely on aquifers, but the vast majority of Australia relies on man-made dams. I *know* weather is cyclical - as does everyone who's lived in Australia for more than a decade. Poems have been written about the juxtaposition of our "droughts and flooding rains". That's why I get cynical when people start screaming that the sky is falling, because we're in a part of the cycle they're not enjoying.

Re:I'm from Mongolia

[tlambert]

Desalination plants are also used for treatment of alkali water.

"A new report from the Asian Development Bank sent a warning signal to Mongolia that, despite its wealth of natural resources and pristine image, the country faces a severe water scarcity and quality crisis"

So if you can't fix the quantity, fix the quality.

Africa, corruption

[Anonymous Coward]

The most blatant corruption here are the so-called "free" trade agreements rammed down the throats of African nations (EU, I'm looking at you). They are killing local industries (just one example: they are swamped by cheap, disgusting leftovers from EU chicken industry because the "developed" nation's citizens can only stand breast and drumstick).

Water? The same: The likes of Nestlé and Veolia steal the water to re-sell it to the locals.

Now that's not to say that the local chiefs aren't corrupt -- but pointing at them from our "first world" couch totally misses the point.

Now excuse me, I'm going to barf.

Israel on the list?

[hydrodog]

Israel currently or will shortly desalinate 100% of its water needs and is actually refilling its aquifers. So I'm not sure what the basis of the claim is. However, the desalination is using natural gas, not solar, so it is not long-term sustainable. Not all the damage has been undone yet. The dead sea has been falling by 1 meter per year for the last 30+ years because all the water coming into it was used for irrigation by Israel and Jordan. While I believe they have arrested or perhaps stopped the drop, they have not yet refilled it. There has been an interesting proposal to develop hydroelectric power with a canal from the meditteranean, and an interesting twist proposed by professor Dan Zaslavsky to generate all power needed by Israel AND Palestine with a single downdraft tower. Here is an article on this interesting concept in Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... Zaslavsky's claim was that such a tower would reduce the amount of water going into the dead sea by 90% due to evaporation, therefore they could increase the flow into the dead sea by a factor of 10, generating 20GWatts of power. The concept has never been tested at scale so no one knows if it would work.

Re:A "condom" fixes all serious problems

[rubycodez]

Note the birth rate of middle class or wealthy people is much below the 2.1 children per couple it takes to have "break even" population. The poor and ignorant are the problem