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Slowing Wind Energy Production Suffers From Lack of Wind

HughPickens.com writes: Gregory Meyer reports at the Financial Times that electricity generated by U.S. wind farms fell 6 per cent in the first half of the year, even as the nation expanded wind generation capacity by 9 per cent. The reason was some of the softest air currents in 40 years, cutting power sales from wind farms to utilities. The situation is likely to intensify into the first quarter of 2016 as the El Niño weather phenomenon holds back wind speeds around much of the U.S. "We never anticipated a drop-off in the wind resource as we have witnessed over the past six months," says David Crane. Wind generated 4.4 per cent of US electricity last year, up from 0.4 per cent a decade earlier. But this year U.S. wind plants' "capacity factor" has averaged just a third of their total generating capacity, down from 38 per cent in 2014.

EIA noted that slightly slower wind speeds can reduce output by a disproportionately large amount. "Capacity factors for wind turbines are largely determined by wind resources," says a report from the Energy Information Administration. "Because the output from a turbine varies nonlinearly with wind speed, small decreases in wind speeds can result in much larger changes in output and, in turn, capacity factors." In January of 2015, wind speeds remained 20 to 45 percent below normal on areas of the west coast, but it was especially bad in California, Oregon, and Washington, where those levels dropped to 50 percent below normal during the month of January.

26 of 224 comments (clear)

  1. Not quite ready by jodido · · Score: 2, Insightful

    to replace reliable hydrocarbons or nuclear power

    1. Re:Not quite ready by Coren22 · · Score: 3, Informative

      Reliable hydrocarbon?

      http://www.wusa9.com/story/news/local/2015/04/07/power-outage/25411283/

      An equipment failure at a switching station? That is your example?

      http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/10/how-national-grid-keeps-the-lights-on-when-a-large-power-stations-catches-fire/

      So, the grid handles a fire pretty well, thanks for that update...

      Reliable nuclear?

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29058644

      Wow...so they found some issues that impacted safety, shutdown the reactors safely, and are now fixing the issues? Oh the humanity! All those lost lives...that didn't happen..

      What was your point again?

      --
      APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
    2. Re:Not quite ready by gurps_npc · · Score: 2
      It is not supposed to 'replace', but to supplement.

      Creating really bad straw-man arguments and congratulating yourself on beating reflects poorly on you, not your opponent.

      --
      excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
    3. Re:Not quite ready by bws111 · · Score: 3, Informative

      When a hydrocarbon or nuclear plant goes offline, how does the grid handle it? By getting power from other hydrocarbon and nuclear plants.

      When wind does not produce power, how does the grid handle it? By getting power from hydrocarbon and nuclear plants.

      One of those is not like the other.

    4. Re:Not quite ready by Coren22 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      A switching station has exactly nothing to do with a power plant. A switching station failure does not weigh in on the unreliability of any particular source of power.

      #2 was dealt with quite well by bws111 above.

      So, a planned safe shutdown counts as unreliability? Huh?

      Unreliable is when you expect something to product power and nothing comes out. Shutting down a power plant isn't unreliability of the power plant, it is a planned event that happens with every type of plant. If suddenly the nuclear fuel pellets stopped producing heat, that would be unreliable, however, I don't think that has EVER happened.

      What I find incredible is this quote from TFS:

      "We never anticipated a drop-off in the wind resource as we have witnessed over the past six months," says David Crane.

      You never anticipated the drop off on wind asociated with El Nino? El Nino is a cycle, it cycles between El Nino and La Nina on a pretty regular basis:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      How could you not plan for this to happen? Why is it such a surprise that the wind could drop off for 6 months at a time due to seasonal variances?

      --
      APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
  2. Who could have foreseen? by digsbo · · Score: 3, Funny

    Who could have foreseen that wind power would be variable, even unpredictable?

    1. Re:Who could have foreseen? by blindseer · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I told you so.

      We need more nuclear power.

      To those that say choosing nuclear power is just choosing death from radiation than climate change I say you need to look at molten salt reactors. MSRs will "eat" radioactive waste from current nuclear reactors and make it inert, while producing electricity and valuable radioisotopes for medicine and industry.

      Another response to the nuclear opponents, I thought climate change was a worldwide problem that was going to kill us all so anything must be better than that. Seems like we can choose the status quo which gives us inevitable death from rising sea levels and destruction of the food chain, or freezing to death when winter comes and the windmills don't spin, or the slightest chance of increased cancers from radioactive waste in the environment. Which is a false choice of course because with a truly modern nuclear reactor we'd actually see less radiation in the environment.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
  3. Output is proportional to wind velocity cubed. by Ihlosi · · Score: 5, Informative

    Wind turbine power output is proportional to the third power of wind velocity. It only takes small changes in average wind velocity to effect large changes in turbine power output.

    1. Re:Output is proportional to wind velocity cubed. by alvinrod · · Score: 2

      What I think is interesting is that there are some people who are quite sure that we're in for massive climate change over the next fifty to two hundred years regardless of what we do now. Shouldn't those people be arguing against wind installations because there's no good way to predict how weather patterns will change in response. What is windy today, might be rather calm in thirty years. While it is certainly possible to move a wind turbine to a new location, I can't imagine that the cost of doing so is trivial.

      Out of all the different forms of green energy, I find wind to be the least useful on a variety of counts.

    2. Re:Output is proportional to wind velocity cubed. by Ihlosi · · Score: 3, Insightful
      While it is certainly possible to move a wind turbine to a new location, I can't imagine that the cost of doing so is trivial.

      The service life of wind turbines is finite. If a location proves to become less windy (which won't happen overnight) and moving the turbine isn't an option, you just take the whole thing down once it breaks for good.

      Climate change will make most places more windy, though, due to more energy being stored in the atmosphere.

    3. Re:Output is proportional to wind velocity cubed. by AmiMoJo · · Score: 2

      Just because change is inevitable doesn't mean that we can't lessen the scale of it. If you notice your car is speeding towards a brick wall too fast to stop before crashing, you still put your foot on the brake anyway.

      --
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  4. obvious fix by frovingslosh · · Score: 4, Funny

    If only we had some way to warm the planet, so that there would be more wind. Perhaps by putting more CO2 in the air and letting the sun warm us up.

    --
    I'm an American. I love this country and the freedoms that we used to have.
  5. Re:caused by climate change by stoolpigeon · · Score: 3, Insightful

    No - we just hit peak wind faster than anyone expected.

    --
    It's hard to believe that's how Micronians are made. Why don't we see it right now by having you both kiss one another?
  6. It's simple... by cayenne8 · · Score: 4, Insightful
    NUKES!!

    Build up and put in the safer nuclear reactors we have nowadays...and supplement them with wind and solar.

    There is no need to just have a monoculture when it comes to power.

    --
    Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
    1. Re:It's simple... by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 2

      Actually nuclear energy is more expensive than wind, and the lead times on nuclear reactors are huge, whereas wind turbines can be put up in a few years at most.

      Wind is not a direct replacement for nuclear, but it mostly doesn't matter. Also, variable power sources don't mesh well with nuclear reactors; nuclear reactors are expensive infrastructure, and have to be run flat out to be cost effective.

      For these reasons, as well as others, we're unlikely to see large widespread deployments of nuclear reactors any time soon, and renewables can be expected to continue to grow exponentially for perhaps a decade or so.

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    2. Re:It's simple... by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 2, Informative

      "Jimmy Carter put a presidential order with a permanent moratorium on any and all power reactor construction."

      Not so. Carter's order was against the US building a recycling plant for nuclear waste. And yes, there is a huge separation between deaths from nuclear and from the next runner up, but it's in favor of nuclear: http://www.the9billion.com/201...

    3. Re:It's simple... by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 2, Informative

      Actually, nuclear can load follow just fine. Its only that the existing fleet was not designed to do so. There is zero reason it cannot be variable, and the re are plenty of designs that allow it, either inherenlt or as an option.

    4. Re:It's simple... by penguinoid · · Score: 3, Informative

      Just compare the deaths per terawatt compared to more stable energy sources, even coal, and you will find that there is a HUGE separation between nuclear and the next runner up, even wind. Just this fact along gives credence to the people who rather live without power than deal with nuclear.

      I'm pretty sure that there is as you said a HUGE separation between per terawatt for nuclear vs other power sources -- just not in the direction you think. For coal, death and poisoning are considered standard operation, rather than a catastrophe -- and that's not even counting global warming.

      --
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    5. Re:It's simple... by TapeCutter · · Score: 2

      Nuclear power is so reliable, safe, and inexpensive that using wind and solar becomes nonsensical.

      Reliable and safe yes, inexpensive no. Economics and a very long lead time to build are the major issues holding back the use of nukes. Numbers vary but solar and wind are now cheaper per kwh than importing brown coal to countries like India. Costs per kwh are still steadily dropping for wind and solar, whereas costs for nukes are stagnant or rising.

      people will freeze to death because the sun didn't shine and the wind didn't blow when we needed it to..snip...people will die needlessly.

      That's just silly fear mongering, every bit as ignorant an mis-informed as the anti-nuke people you are arguing against. Local weather variations are irrelevant to a national solar/wind grid, climate wobbles such as the el-nino phenomena mentioned in TFA have a minor impact on output because they change the average weather conditions over the entire planet. Note the impact of natural climate wobbles on output can also be positive, it just happens that the one on TFA is negative for the US (it's likely the same climate event had a positive impact on Australian renewable output).

      I have no ideological problems with nukes, the appear to work very well in parts of Europe apart from the occasional political spat. However the costs and long lead times associated with building nukes means they will continue to be used in the future only where renewables are impractical. Worse still for the nuke industry, the economic niches for profitable nukes are shrinking as the renewables industry steadily continues improving their technology and ROI numbers. One thing is certain, king coal's crown is slipping, "book values" for coal assets are falling fast, the world bank, IMF, etc, have all recently stopped investing in coal and advised other to follow, nobody wants to be stuck with a "stranded asset", except the luddites running the fucking country down here in Oz, who are doing everything in their power to build the port/rail infrastructure to service "the world's largest coal mine", the mine itself is likely to fall into the "stranded asset" basket before it is even constructed.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  7. Re:caused by climate change by sycodon · · Score: 4, Funny

    Quick!

    Tax something!

    --
    When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
  8. Re:meanwhile solar output from the sun was stable by behrooz0az · · Score: 2

    I don't think universe is that old, YMMV.

    --
    Moderating "-1, Disagree" is simple censorship. Have the guts to post your opinion. -- Spazmania (174582)
  9. Gee... by 0123456 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It's almost like our ancestors gave up on wind power and build power stations for a reason....

  10. And the wind farm finances collapse like clockwork by Karmashock · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It was said when these things went in that their claims of being able to be self supporting would not pan out. That they would need extensive subsidies forever and that they would need COAL or NATURAL GAS back ups to cover their load whenever they didn't provide the power.

    All comments of this nature were treated like a naughty boy throwing spiders at the girls.

    A sign of immaturity, anti social behavior, and really a good reason to have their fathers give them a stern talking to...

    Because... when someone points out logical flaws in a power grid design, the best response is to address them like you're a kindergarten teacher and their attempts at rational dialogue are merely an expression of immaturity. Because after all... real adults... real mature and well adjusted people... they just immediately buy into whatever whomever the politician is that tells them what to believe. And anyone that doesn't some flavor of village idiot or deviant... probably a pedophile. Nothing screams pedophilia like questioning dodgy power and financial estimates of a wind farm.

    So where is this going? Same place it went last time:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

    Am I against wind? Not at all. I think its great. I am against large amounts of public money going to build big wind farms in clusters. I'd prefer that the projects either be privately funded so it isn't just a scam to get grant money and then run when they project dries up. Or I'd like the money to instead be pushed to encourage home owners and building owners to install renewable power on their roofs and in their property thus negating the possibility that given companies are colluding or bribing the government to get contracts because the home owners will be under no obligation to buy from a given company.

    --
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  11. Re:meanwhile solar output from the sun was stable by rubycodez · · Score: 2

    HVDC supergrids generate no power whatsoever. Now plug some nuclear reactors into that and then you'd really have something that could drive civilization and prosperity for mankind forward.

  12. Re:caused by climate change by blindseer · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Yes! Let's tax those evil rich coal producers so we can give the money to those evil rich windmill makers!

    This is what I don't get about those tax-n-subsidize proponents that want to subsidize things like wind, solar, and what not. The argument goes something like, "Those evil fossil fuel people are making money off the poor! They take our money and poison the planet! We need to make them pay!" Okay, so we tax them. What do we do with that tax income then?

    I'll tell you where that money goes. We subsidize electric cars because they are so expensive. Yep, very expensive. So expensive that only a rich person can afford them even after the subsidies and car makers sell them at a loss. Who's getting those subsidies then? Yep, rich people that are looking for a four door penis enhancement and car makers that use that money to make more SUVs.

    Solar subsidies? Same thing. Expensive solar panels are bought by rich people that want to feel good about themselves and then file for a tax rebate for doing so.

    Windmills? We tax the evil corporations that make coal so that another evil corporation can afford to make windmills. With the complex structure of corporate ownership in this economy it's quite likely that those that own the coal company also own the windmill company.

    This is not a problem that can be solved with taxes, as the parent post pointed out. This is a technology problem, and a policy problem. We'd have many more safe, reliable, and cheap nuclear power plants if only the government would get out of the way. One possible solution I see is taking nuclear regulation from the federal government and give it to the states. Let the states regulate their own nuclear power plants. The US Department of Energy is so fearful of dong anything wrong that they don't do anything at all.

    --
    I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
  13. Re:What? by WindBourne · · Score: 2

    I can see why you are AC. You do not have a fucking clue of what you are saying. You think that America's taxes on oil and coal is creating artificially low prices? Oil prices are low because of fracking combined with every nation now dumping on the market so that they keep their % of the market regardless of prices.

    And coal prices dropped because nat gas prices, along with WInd prices, are much lower than electricity from coal . In fact, the ONLY thing keeping it up to this price is that fact that we continue to increase coal to CHina.

    --
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