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NASA's Ten-Year Mission To Study All the Ways the Arctic Is Doomed

Lasrick writes: NASA is kicking off the Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment, a decade-long effort to figure out just how bad things in northern US and Canada really are. The large-scale study will combine on-the-ground field studies as well as data from remote sensors—such as satellites and two season of 'intensive airborne surveys'—to improve how scientists analyze and model the effects of climate change on the region.

24 of 125 comments (clear)

  1. Bender says by Revek · · Score: 2

    DOOMED!!!!!

    1. Re:Bender says by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 2, Insightful

      DOOMED!!!!!

      More like self destruction. After complaining that they are underfunded, NASA is crazy to be sticking their nose into a politically sensitive issue like this. They are likely to have their funding cut a lot more. The effect of climate change on forests is important, but "on-the-ground field studies" are not part of NASA's mission. They are a space agency, not the forest service.

    2. Re:Bender says by ClickOnThis · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The effect of climate change on forests is important, but "on-the-ground field studies" are not part of NASA's mission. They are a space agency, not the forest service.

      Uh, yeah ... because NASA's study of planet Earth was removed quietly from its mission statement during the Bush administration.

      --
      If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
    3. Re:Bender says by TapeCutter · · Score: 2

      This is why I admire James Hansen, a public servant with the balls to speak truth to power, we need more people like him in government institutions.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  2. Word by fustakrakich · · Score: 2

    Change != DOOM!

    --
    “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    1. Re:Word by NotInHere · · Score: 2

      I agree that change itself is neutral, and that species extinction is a natural process just like the creation of new species. The earth has a history of change in its ecosystems. However, as we currently spend our time on this planet, and our lives depend on the hospitability of those ecosystems towards humans, our view isn't neutral. Science and the general thinking process is and should be neutral yes. But the motivation for which we do science has to be biased. This isn't a secluded cave where we study its completely independent ecosystem, here its about our lives.

    2. Re:Word by fustakrakich · · Score: 2

      In that case we just have to adapt. It still doesn't have to be doom. But, with so much corruption permeating the system, it will probably be pretty doom-like. And there are plenty of people who wouldn't mind seeing 6 billion or more people die off, as long as it doesn't drive up the cost of cheap labor.

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
  3. Not doomed. by Lumpy · · Score: 4, Funny

    It will be just fine, warmer but just fine. Honestly all you people have zero clue as to reality. the temperature on the earth can increase 500 degrees and the planet will be perfectly ok. Look at Venus, the planet it's self is still in it's orbit, and doing great. No chance of deorbiting and crashing into the sun, no chance of being flung into deep space. as a planet it is doing well.

    Earth will do just fine and probably better after all the pesky people have been boiled off.

    --
    Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    1. Re:Not doomed. by ClickOnThis · · Score: 2

      I don't completely agree with George Carlin's take on this but I still find it entertaining.

      --
      If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
  4. Geologist's Core Samples by BoRegardless · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I would expect we already have core samples from the tundra and sea bottoms which cover the last 250,000 years.

    That means we have over two complete cycles of the 110,000 year natural glaciation periods.

    Given core samples we already have, I want to know whether the core samples show we have even warmer centuries coming, or not?

    1. Re:Geologist's Core Samples by phantomfive · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Here is a graph of the data from the Vostok core samples. The (numbers on the bottom are in thousands of years). Based on those core samples, what do you think? How would you say CO2 relates to temperature?

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  5. Re:The Arctic is NOT doomed by AK+Marc · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Then if it's a temporary warming, we should use the opportunity to build the rail to Russia and other things that are easier in the warmer clime, and when the cold comes back, it's not a big deal. The trains run year-round in cold places, but it's harder to build in the cold than the warm. Digging down to the permafrost when it's melting is harder, but when it's growing back, it's easier, less drilling into the frozen ground, which is some of the hardest drilling on the planet.

  6. Russia's problem by PPH · · Score: 2

    They own the rights to the Arctic. Let them deal with it.

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    Have gnu, will travel.
    1. Re:Russia's problem by ClickOnThis · · Score: 2

      They own the rights to the Arctic. Let them deal with it.

      No, they don't. At least not all by themselves.

      --
      If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
  7. the canadian scientists cannot help by crispytwo · · Score: 3, Insightful

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/technol...

    And even if they could help, they could not talk about it

    https://news.vice.com/article/...

    we're doomed

  8. Craters in Russian Arctic from methane gas by billstewart · · Score: 3, Insightful

    WaPo article on craters in Siberia - apparently they're from methane gas evaporation, which is spectacularly bad news, because methane has more greenhouse effect than CO2. There's a lot of methane stored in frozen arctic tundra, and if warming temperatures make more of it escape, that's going to warm things up faster and make more of it escape.

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    Bill Stewart
    New Fast-Compression-only CPR http://preview.tinyurl.com/dy575ks
  9. Re:Maybe they should study why people don't care? by CanadianMacFan · · Score: 2

    Maybe it's because people are really bad at caring (wrong word but the right one is escaping me at the moment) for the consequences in the future. You see it when a person needs to lose weight or stop smoking in order to prevent bad health in the future, being unable to put money aside for a rainy day, or even in those tests that they give kids where they can have one candy now but two if they wait 20 minutes. We seem to be programmed to want the immediate satisfaction of a smoke, buying something, or a candy despite something better for us in the future.

    So with climate change we feel we are being asked to make sacrifices, and sometimes there are, for benefits that might not even be in our lifetime or may not even happen to our area of the planet. Why should I drive less so that the ice in the Arctic doesn't melt in 35 years and flood some island half way around the world? If someone has a hard time stopping to buy their lunches in order to save for a new TV then it's going to be really hard for them to be motivated to drive less. (Not that I'm saying that's how you have to save the environment but that is how a lot of people think you have to.)

  10. Re:The Arctic is NOT doomed by deviated_prevert · · Score: 2
    What a miss informed bunch of absolute bullshit. Have you ever seen tundra or what permafrost really is? Obviously many here have no freaking clue as to the nature of the north.

    What replaces permafrost is bog and that bog is impossible to put a rail line over period. Millions of square hectares of bog is what we will see as the permafrost melts. A rise in sea levels and near the arctic ocean a decrease in land mass. The delta of the Mackenzie River will be swamped so will the deltas of many Russian rivers that flow into the low artic. The amount of slow seepage to the ocean from the melting permafrost is incredible. As the glacier cover over Greenland calves to the sea the effect will increase.

    You think the last problem with flooding in New York and New Joisy was bad, just wait you ain't seen nothing yet. But that is ok you can just move up to Canada and take advantage of the new land created eh! What a bunch of freaking morons.

    By documenting what is happening from space and what happens in the upper atmosphere and working in combination with data that is land based at least Nasa is helping to accurately document what is happening and the rate at which we can expect the coast lines to change in the near future! Perhaps all you idiots in the states should do is just elect another moron like Jeb or better still Ronald Frump, you can bet either one will put Nasa in its place and make America great again by teaching everyone to stick their head into the Canadian oil sands and kiss their ass goodbye. DRILL BABY DRILL, frac the shit out of the planet who cares if New York sinks.

    --
    This message was not sent from an iPhone because Peter Sellers really was a deviated prevert without a dime for the call
  11. Re:The Arctic is NOT doomed by deviated_prevert · · Score: 2
    Yes and sections of the CPR go over muskeg in Northern Ontario. But we are taking about a completely different logistical challenge when it comes to permafrost that can become lakes over vast distances. There are vast stretches of frozen mush that run for hundreds of miles in both North America and Northern Siberia. What will happen as this thaws out is not well understood. As small sections of it melt what happens now is the dead plant material sinks and presto you have a lake. So what happens when huge areas of it thaw is that huge lakes will suddenly form where there once was vegetation living on top of mushy ice.

    I have worked the oil fields up north and can tell you that come May you are shut down for the summer and the shut down times are getting longer and longer and the ice road season is getting shorter. The interior of British Columbia has lost the pine forest because of climate change and that change is moving further and further north every year. This year the wild fire season showed what we are in for. But unfortunately the vast majority of Americans are morons that ignore what is really happening to the environment until something actually happens to them.

    People who do not have a freaking clue are making statements about what is going on. The climate change that is happening is undeniable and if it accelerates because of methane coming out of the tundra then the results are going to be changes that will effect the worlds food supply. Drought in the American south west and the winter food production in California and elsewhere is already causing drastic increases in food costs.

    The answer that Ronald Frump and others are putting forward is more of the same bullshit that caused these problems in the first place. Unless we get our act together there is going to be food shortages and unrest in the next 10 years. We cannot afford not to act the other choice is very disturbing and will lead to social chaos that we will not be able to cope with regardless of who has the guns!

    People who think that climate change is suddenly going to open up the north are absolute fools and need to be ostracized and exposed for the Charlestons they really are! Especially the ones that think that a new North West passage is going to lead to financial gain and an increase in world trade. As we lose the oceans fisheries and people begin to starve then come back and talk to me. Our greed and stupidity has caused these things, more greed and stupidity will not fix them but most definitely eventually will lead to lower population levels!

    --
    This message was not sent from an iPhone because Peter Sellers really was a deviated prevert without a dime for the call
  12. Re: The Arctic is NOT doomed by riverat1 · · Score: 2

    Then perhaps you could cite some references where Al Gore actually said that.

  13. Re: The Arctic is NOT doomed by RJBeery · · Score: 2

    See this is part of the movement. When it comes to nuanced hard data, Environmentalists cite Science...but when it comes to INTERPRETATION of that data they have no problem using every hyperbolic, apocalyptic prediction in every news article they can get their hands on. If these "predictions" don't come to pass it isn't a problem because they can just ask for "peer-reviewed papers" making these predictions. I don't suppose you're old enough to remember the Global Freezing predictions of the 70's? Anyway, failed climate predictions from prominent news and political sources abound if you care to look. http://wattsupwiththat.com/201...

  14. Re: The Arctic is NOT doomed by riverat1 · · Score: 2

    I went and read that list of 107 "failed predictions". Most of them are from the 2000s so it's way to early to call them failed. Let's see what conditions look like in the 2030's to 2050's to before we judge them. A number of them are from non-scientists who I will generously say misinterpreted what scientists have said. Even the ones that you could say failed contain words like "may" so I interpret them more as a worst case scenario.

  15. Re:Wildlife is already dying by deviated_prevert · · Score: 2

    Just look at this. From nat. geo. Polar bear deaths

    Fucking sad.

    Fixed the link for ya. And well quoted point well taken but the implications of what is happening to the arctic are much further reaching than just the sudden extinction of the top predators!

    And that is the whole issue in a nut shell. What is even more concerning is as the sea ice changes so does the ecosystem that supports the arctic cod that requires sea ice habitat. This in turn supports the summer populations of sea birds, seals and the food web of the arctic. So it gets much worse than that in a hurry. The entire food web of the arctic is now in chaos and we will see increased extinctions, the polar bears will be the first because they are at the top of the food web. Then the seals and finally the sea bird populations will crash.

    The whales that live off krill will die off as the krill population crashes due to changes in currents. In some places there will be minor increases in local populations of specific species but by and large the large animals will all die off.

    Our ocean fishery is doomed because of rapid climate change and within the next 20 years it will become obvious that what we have done to the environment of planet earth is going to starve us off as well. There is no stopping the coming extinction cycles. The only realistic solution is for us to evolve as a species and that evolution must be artificial. We need to genetically modify ourselves to survive. A body that can survive in low gravity is the answer, essentially a space cadet or grey alien like body with very light bone structure and a high resistance to extreme g forces seems the most sensible modifications. Perhaps this guy is right! I guess that is why my favourite movie of all time is a doomsday one. I consider myself lucky to be of the last generation that could have prevented the global extinctions and instead chose to go out with our collective heads in the oil sands of time believing that paving the planet would lead to a bright future! We have ignored the obvious warnings and we are doomed because of our greed and stupidity. The human race is not worth saving because it did not learn to rise above greed and the ensuing acts of war that tribalism creates. Our chance to become a single species is past and we instead are again falling into a narrow minded self serving tribal economic chaos which we call capitalism. We have lost the only chance we had to rise above greed and strife. Mother nature is about to cull the herd and it will be brutal because we are incapable of thinking beyond ourselves as individuals regardless of skull and bones and secret hand shakes and all the other bullshit that we delude ourselves with the human race is going to evolve and that evolution is not something which we have control over!

    --
    This message was not sent from an iPhone because Peter Sellers really was a deviated prevert without a dime for the call
  16. Re:The Arctic is NOT doomed by dywolf · · Score: 2

    multi decade cycle my ass: http://haveland.com/share/arct...

    --
    The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.