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What an IT Career Will Look Like 5 Years Out

snydeq writes: InfoWorld's Paul Heltzel reports on the impact that IT's increasing reliance on the cloud for IT infrastructure will have on your career in the years ahead. "[O]ne fact is clear: Organizations of all stripes are increasingly moving IT infrastructure to the cloud. In fact, most IT pros who've pulled all-nighters, swapping in hard drives or upgrading systems while co-workers slept, probably won't recognize their offices' IT architecture — or the lack thereof — in five years. This shift will have a broad impact on IT's role in the future — how departments are structured (or broken up), who sets the technical vision (or follows it), and which skills rise to prominence (or fall away almost entirely)."

233 comments

  1. Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by damn_registrars · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Careers, at least as we used to know them, are mostly gone now. We won't see them again any time soon. Even the industry that the federal government so lovingly bailed out back in 2010 has been laying off plenty of IT workers in recent times, and they were amongst the most stable places for IT "careers" before now. If you want to be able to retire at some point before you die, you need to be constantly looking for other job opportunities. Move up, move down, move laterally; it doesn't matter. Just keep moving or you'll be under the chopping block.

    --
    Damn_registrars has no butt-hole. Damn_registrars has no use for a butt-hole.
    1. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      WORST BAIL OUT EVER.

      Turns out it wasn't even a bail out, it was just an additional tax.

      I say this as an IT employee in the healthcare sector currently working on a project to replace some of our in house applications with a cloud solution...

      Our infrastructure isn't going away completely, not in 5 years time, not in 10, maybe in 15-20... but it is definitely reducing as time goes on. Biggest obstacle to going full cloud is concern over Patient Health Information (PHI) so far we've managed to avoid putting that in the could, but we are getting less and less risk averse when it comes to the cloud, so there may come a time when we don't have anything holding us back and go 100% cloud, but it's still a great many years off.

      I'd venture that working in the healthcare space is still one of the most secure jobs in IT, but that just isn't saying as much as it used to.

    2. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Wow. That is possibly the dumbest thing I have read on here. Keep moving, or you will get fired? Who is going to hire someone who keeps switching jobs constantly? I'm sure you will be modded to +5 Insightful though.

    3. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Pretty sure the point the OP was trying to make was "keep your resume handy, don't get too comfortable".

    4. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anon-Admin · · Score: 4, Informative

      This is an IT Management issue that I am hoping someone will realize is a huge drain on the budget.

      1) New IT manager arrives with vision of how he is going to improve IT
      2) Hires new staff to realize that vision
      3) Trains new staff. ($$$)
      4) Is promoted in 2 to 3 years into a new higher position.
      5) New IT Manager arrives with new vision of how he is going to improve IT
      6) Decides the company needs "New Blood" in IT and proceeds to lay off old IT staff.
      7) Hires new staff to realize that vision (In most cases paying %10-%30 more to get new staff due to salary changes over the years)
      8) Trains new staff. ($$$)
      9) Is promoted in 2 to 3 years into a new higher position.
      10) Rinse and Repeat.

      Each round you loose the knowledge of what was tried, and failed, before and what worked for the business need. I have seen new managers come into a company and decide to revamp the whole system with no review of ROI, TCO, or even the understanding that completely retooling the environment will be cost prohibitive.

    5. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      With a comment like that, I was fully expecting you to have cited one of the American motor car companies, but actually you cited an industry where the overall compensation is lessening.

      The medical system didn't receive a bailout, it wasn't failing. It received a pay cut in conjunction with a promise that it would be paid for every patient. You might be surprised, but prior to that they didn't get paid for a lot of treatment supplied to a lot of patients, and it drove costs up across the board for those who could pay.

      Why treat those who couldn't pay? Because it is (and was) the law. You can't query a guy going into the ER about his medical status before treating him, to prevent predatory ERs from allowing people to die at their doorstep. Who paid for those that couldn't? The states paid, driving up taxes, so the poor already got free medical treatment. After all, it's not like they were going to pay anyway.

    6. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Yeah, working in IT the health and health insurance industry is no rose garden. Most of us have to deal with executives who don't understand the realities of hardware and infrastructure, or come from other industries and fail to understand that losing control over the data could not only cost you the contract, but could have you end up in jail with hefty fines and penalties.

      We had one newly minted IT Director a couple years back who was all set and ready to move our processing offsite to a contractor in China to save a few dollars and look good to the other executives. I argued strenuously that it was in violation of the contract we had with a number of large clients, and he came back with the whole spiel "It's an industry standard practice. No one is so antiquated that they expect us not to offshore." That lasted right up until a client got wind and came back to us with a specification in the contract that specifically stated that any data that was sent to us had to reside with us and could not be shared with any other party outside the contract. Helps to read and understand the contract, right? He was gone within a week.

    7. Re: Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Name names.

    8. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Constantly, like every year, that's a problem for me. 2+ years at a job now, in my mind is no problem whatsoever and I'm on the "long timer" side of the equation. A lot of my co-workers think as long as you hit one year, you put in your time.

    9. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No he didn't mean that>

      "Just keep moving or you'll be under the chopping block"

      That means keep switching jobs, because if you stay somewhere you will be fired. Dumb.

    10. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by orlanz · · Score: 1

      He is actually spot on. The way it is setup, the HR procurement process would much rather hire someone working for another company or in the company over someone who recently became unemployed. Even promotions and raises go to those who show that they can easily leave to better pastures. HR seems to equate this to mean the company is undervaluing them presently. I have seen many examples where the guy who says "I have a job offer, match it or I am leaving" every two years advances by leaps compared to his peers that didn't.

      Most of the younger companies in the IT industry think 5 years is a very long time to be working at any company. My last interviewers were shocked that I was at my present company for 4 years. My peers have been here for 10+. But even at my company, we have done mass firings and hired many... at the same time. Big companies tend to gravitate into thinking that the wallpaper employees are dead weights. Mostly because the wallpaper gets taken for granted and their work not documented... eventually management doesn't know what they do. The hoppers are the squeaky wheels whose "value add" is very visible to management. Their job history appears like their growth is unbounded and potential unlimited... even of that person is just sinking and jumping ships.

    11. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I am doing the same thing where I work, how funny would it be if we were sitting next to each other....

      Buzz word of the year "Velocity"

    12. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 2

      10) Rinse and Repeat.

      This is very similar to the in-house versus oursource issue. Our's was on a five year cycle. Engineers on one side, bean counters on the other.

      A;ways came back to in house because of the control, then the bean counters show how much money can be saved by outsourcing, then all that money saved and more is wasted by reworks and travel, then it comes back in house for the control, then the bean counters show how much money can be saved......

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    13. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The obvious solution is to outsource the bean counters.

    14. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by damn_registrars · · Score: 1

      The medical system didn't receive a bailout,

      You're right. The bailout was to the insurance industry, which was living high on the hog and wanted a return on their investment (in the federal government). The government responded by giving them the greatest corporate handout in the history of government.

      --
      Damn_registrars has no butt-hole. Damn_registrars has no use for a butt-hole.
    15. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by rayd75 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Wow. That is possibly the dumbest thing I have read on here. Keep moving, or you will get fired? Who is going to hire someone who keeps switching jobs constantly? I'm sure you will be modded to +5 Insightful though.

      I've been interviewing candidates for a high-end generalist position for six months now. (We're cheap and no-name) One thing that has struck me is that few people stay at an IT job for more than 18 months to 2 years. I'm an exception, having been here for 7 years and at my previous job for 9. But what really surprises me is that I've started to consider those 18 month stints as normal. Now, when I look at a resume where someone has been at the same place for 3 or 4 years, I ask myself "What's wrong with this person that they couldn't find another job?" It never crosses my mind that they, like me, might simply have found a relaxed environment in which they're comfortable and not expected to hold down a desk for 9 hours before doing the real work after everyone else goes home. It's scary. I'm both the senior technical person at my organization and my IT department's hiring manager... and by my own standards, I'm practically unhirable.

    16. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are stupid.

      If you think that people are more valuable when they show less commitment to staying at a place for any length of time, then as an extension of your logic, you are probably the least valuable employee to your company. After all, you've been there for nine years.

      The reason you don't see people with 10 years in is because our industry doubles every three years, so 100% will have under a year of experience, 50% will have about 3 years of experience, 25% will have about six years of experience, and 12% will have about 9 years of experience.

      If you are in that 12% odds are you have already jumped in and out of the less desirable jobs and have found a place where you are generally happy. For example, I worked for Cisco systems for 8 years and was rather happy there. My "move" from Cisco had a lot to do with layoffs and nothing to do with motivation to find a new team.

      I am one of the really rare ones, I have over 15 years of experience. I assure you that I'm not unemployable. In fact, there is a high demand for people who really know their field, and in computers, it is still a field where you can command a high salary if you have the skill set to back it up.

    17. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      The obvious solution is to outsource the bean counters.

      Hoopefully they will resume their reguar place Starting around 2000, they became commodities instead of normal employees. Then they ended up running the show. The place I was at went from a few accountants to maybe a hundred.

      And despite that increase, there always seemed to be a "need" to hire several more.

      I used to joke about "needing" a 150 K accountant to keep track of 2K of company pencils. Not certain that hasn't become reality in some places.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    18. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by tobiasly · · Score: 1

      If you want to be able to retire at some point before you die, you need to be constantly looking for other job opportunities. Move up, move down, move laterally; it doesn't matter. Just keep moving or you'll be under the chopping block.

      This, this, this. I've been trying to preach this to any of my IT peers who will listen for years now. Always have a Plan B. Keep in touch with local recruiters, get your name out there, know what jobs are available, and use that info to your advantage.

      Even here in the Midwest where cost of living is much lower, I can go out and get a six-figure job on about a week's notice but that's because I've already done the legwork. Don't wait until you need a job before you start looking; there are plenty of them out there. Several times a month I have recruiters emailing to say "hey I know you're at XXX right now but there's an opportunity over here if you're interested..." Or start freelancing on the side.

      Be "agile" about your career... some sprints are longer than others but you don't wait until one is finished to start planning for the next!

    19. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No he isn't "spot on". No one wants to train new employees. It costs money to hire and retrain. Companies want to keep you at the cheapest amount possible. No one is going to hire anyone who jumps around every year.

    20. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by tobiasly · · Score: 1

      Keep moving, or you will get fired? Who is going to hire someone who keeps switching jobs constantly? I'm sure you will be modded to +5 Insightful though.

      You obviously haven't been keeping an eye on the job market. There are plenty of places who are looking for 6-12 month contracts to get some new site up and running, or to staff up for some new initiative that may last a couple years then who knows. I've never stayed at any IT job for longer than 3 years, and I have never once had a single hiring manager bring that up as a negative.

      The ones you want to work for understand how the market is these days. And believe me, it's a seller's market. Companies are dying to find good IT talent. They realize that "global sourcing" is more like "you get what you pay for" and they want good help quickly. They can't promise they'll still have that need 5 years from now -- who can? -- and don't want to waste each others' time pretending that's not the case.

      Even if you did stay at the same place for years, you wouldn't earn what you're worth. They'll pay the new guys a lot more than your yearly increase. So work the system to your favor, and always be the new guy.

    21. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by ranton · · Score: 1

      Keep moving, or you will get fired? Who is going to hire someone who keeps switching jobs constantly?

      While switching jobs every year will be a red flag (unless you were a consultant), switching jobs every three years or so will not be a red flag for any employer worth working for. As long as these are not consistently lateral moves, it shows the candidate is managing his career well and will probably bring more varied skills than someone who stayed at one employer for 10 years.

      When I am asked where I see myself in 5 years during interviews, I am always open that I will either have moved to a more senior role at this company or have solved their immediate needs and moved on. For every potential employer that I still wanted to work for after the interview, that answer has never stopped me from getting a competitive offer.

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    22. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      I've been an IT support contractor for ten years, working anywhere from one day to one year. I recently ran into a former coworker during a job interview last year. He's still making the same amount of money that I made nine years ago when we worked together. Since I worked all over Silicon Valley for Fortune 500 companies and exposed to a wide variety of experiences and technologies, I made 80% than my former coworker. Those 2% raises for staying put in one job over the years doesn't add up to much.

    23. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by ranton · · Score: 1

      No he isn't "spot on". No one wants to train new employees. It costs money to hire and retrain. Companies want to keep you at the cheapest amount possible. No one is going to hire anyone who jumps around every year.

      So don't be one of the employees who has to be trained.

      I have taken failing projects away from company lifers within a couple months at new companies on multiple occasions. While I will be more productive after a year or two than I am on the first day, my varied work experience makes me more valuable on day 20 than most employees with 10 years of company specific experience. I just keep 1 to 2 company lifers close so I can ask for advice so the company gets the best of both worlds. The coworkers I choose to work close with are usually the ones who want to improve themselves and are eager to be part of projects that are improving their internal IT processes, so everyone benefits. Everyone but the lifers who resist change that is.

      I do have to agree that changing jobs every year is a bit much, unless you are a contractor. Three years per company is very reasonable though.

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    24. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You know what they say... never go full cloud.

    25. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is a plateau after which any new technology doesn't add much to marginal utility. Eventually, the applications themselves will just run on one infrastructure and noone needs to be really worried about it. All that product differentiation based on where they stand in the OSI model will just fade away.

    26. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by luis_a_espinal · · Score: 1

      No he isn't "spot on". No one wants to train new employees. It costs money to hire and retrain. Companies want to keep you at the cheapest amount possible. No one is going to hire anyone who jumps around every year.

      Except for the very few who have internship programs, no one trains new employees anymore. Welcome to yesterday's news.

      So when you hop, it is because you know your shit (or know how to figure things out) and land on your feet running. If you lack that skill, you are dead weight, plain simple.

      Also, the OP never said jumping every year, but keep looking and keep moving. That can be 2-3 years intervals at least to no more than 5. 2-3 years is the norm. 4 is pushing it, and 5, either you lack the drive or you are one of the very few who has landed a gig worth keeping past 5.

      That is how it has been for the last 20 years. Not by our choices mind you, but as a reaction of the way the industry has been changing.

      No one wants to keep jumping ship every 2-3 years. Of course not!

      But no one gives permanent jobs anymore. They are all contracting jobs. No benefits. No yearly raises. And every 3-4 years there is this churn when all of the sudden the whole dev/it group is let go with their jobs going offshore. And since most people are contractors, there are no legal obligations to give advanced warning or severance packages.

      That is reality. Not of our choosing, but one that has been imposed on us (and the country at large - just look at all those people who are still dreaming for their manufacturing jobs to come back from China.).

      I mean, seriously, under what type of rock have you been hiding for the last 15-20 years?

    27. Re: Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by lolococo · · Score: 1

      says the AC to the AC

    28. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by luis_a_espinal · · Score: 1

      You are stupid.

      If you think that people are more valuable when they show less commitment to staying at a place for any length of time, then as an extension of your logic, you are probably the least valuable employee to your company. After all, you've been there for nine years.

      The reason you don't see people with 10 years in is because our industry doubles every three years, so 100% will have under a year of experience, 50% will have about 3 years of experience, 25% will have about six years of experience, and 12% will have about 9 years of experience.

      If you are in that 12% odds are you have already jumped in and out of the less desirable jobs and have found a place where you are generally happy. For example, I worked for Cisco systems for 8 years and was rather happy there. My "move" from Cisco had a lot to do with layoffs and nothing to do with motivation to find a new team.

      I am one of the really rare ones, I have over 15 years of experience. I assure you that I'm not unemployable. In fact, there is a high demand for people who really know their field, and in computers, it is still a field where you can command a high salary if you have the skill set to back it up.

      Exactly. Layoffs. That it happened to you only on a rare occasion that allowed you to stay at Cisco for 8 years only means that you are an statistical outlier in this industry.

      Nobody is motivated to jump ship just for shits and giggles, but because we know the vibe of things and known when a round of head chopping is around the block.

      And you get laid off very often in this industry without having anything to do with performance. In my 20 years of experience, I've been laid off three times because funding cuts. The first two experiences showcase how abnormal shit can be, specially when the economy is going belly up.

      First time I got laid off, because money ran out. Took me 2 months to find another gig just for the company to run out of money again. I had to work for 8 weeks without a salary just to make sure we could deliver to our last client to get our last paycheck. 13 years later I got another lay-off, also because the accountants up there decided to cancel a shitload of projects to make their 1st quarter reports look pretty.

      And in between, another firm (big firm, no names) that also did the same - cut funding. So I had to bail ship after just 6 months. At another company there was no prospect of a raise (not just for me, but for everyone), so after 2 years, guess what? Bail ship.

      Very recently I was working for a DoD contractor, going to my fifth year. Great job. Then comes the sequester. Guess what? Bail ship again.

      That is life. From the highly technical to the incompetent. That's what the American software person goes through. Shit even in SV you see that regularly (for each successful startup, there is a trail of carcasses of failed startups - what do you think those folk do when shit runs to an end.)?

      Good for you that you have not had to experience the churn. Either you are one lucky bastard, or you are one of the talented few who will never run out of solid opportunities, or you are like a horseshoe crab - plowing through the endless sands for ages, blissfully unaware of the changing world around him.

    29. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Coren22 · · Score: 1

      In fact, I have noticed in this industry, if you don't hop, your pay stagnates, hopping gets you a 20% increase, staying gets you 0-3% increase. There is no reason to stay with a company long term if they don't value enough to give you raises. I am not an under performer either, it is just the way of companies.

      --
      APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
    30. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by smooth+wombat · · Score: 1

      Those 2% raises for staying put in one job over the years doesn't add up to much.

      Oddly, people whine about government workers who get a 2% (or less) raise every year, claiming they're mooching off the taxpayer with their exorbitant salaries. I'll have to remind them of your comment.

      --
      We will bankrupt ourselves in the vain search for absolute security. -- Dwight D. Eisenhower
    31. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The problem is that you have to keep moving. It is a constant game of musical chairs, and if you wind up standing when the music stops, it will be incredibly hard to find meaningful employment.

      Lets be real here. You can have 15 years of IT knowledge, but who gives a flying fsck about IRIX, Solaris, AIX, or antediluvian technologies? You are either using Puppet, Splunk, Hadoop, Chef, OpenStack and other technologies to deal with el cheapo x86 racks, or you will be replaced by someone who does know this.

      Even now, if you don't know what the buzzword "hyperconvergence" is, it is not the latest and greatest thing yet, but when W2016 hits RTM, it (and to a lesser extent Docker) will be smacking IT in the face, especially with the fact that you can just add more Hyper-V compute nodes using Storage Spaces Direct to increase cluster space without having to have a SAN. No, this won't replace the VNX... but for a lot of setups, it will be a cheap and working alternative.

      One always has to keep moving. Yes, hyperconvergence is just the reinvention of automounter and the /net filesystem... but IT is about making the PHB happy, and getting a paycheck.

    32. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by minijedimaster · · Score: 1

      Keep moving, or you will get fired? Who is going to hire someone who keeps switching jobs constantly? I'm sure you will be modded to +5 Insightful though.

      You obviously haven't been keeping an eye on the job market. There are plenty of places who are looking for 6-12 month contracts to get some new site up and running, or to staff up for some new initiative that may last a couple years then who knows. I've never stayed at any IT job for longer than 3 years, and I have never once had a single hiring manager bring that up as a negative.

      The ones you want to work for understand how the market is these days. And believe me, it's a seller's market. Companies are dying to find good IT talent. They realize that "global sourcing" is more like "you get what you pay for" and they want good help quickly. They can't promise they'll still have that need 5 years from now -- who can? -- and don't want to waste each others' time pretending that's not the case.

      Even if you did stay at the same place for years, you wouldn't earn what you're worth. They'll pay the new guys a lot more than your yearly increase. So work the system to your favor, and always be the new guy.

      This. I was at a company for just over three years, took their lowball offer because at the time I NEEDED a job. But after 3 years in they were still the cheap ass stingy company that hired me and refused to give me any kind of raise or path to higher paying positions. So I found a new job that gave me a 30% raise. The new job wasn't exactly what was explained to me when I was hired, so 10 months into this job I found another one that was. Took another 15% raise from that point. I'm now earning over $40,000 more per year than I was at the original company. All within 1 year of moving on from their cheap asses. Moving can be very beneficial if done right and at the right times.

    33. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      My current IT contract job is with the government. I'm getting paid the same amount as I was making in the private sector and a 2% raise after working for a year. I've seen five contractors get fired within two weeks of being hired because they tried to "mooch" by not working. The primary benefit of this job is that the contract is fully funded for the next four years. It's a nice break from the contracting work I've done for the last ten years. Meanwhile, I'm studying for certification exams to get my next job.

    34. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by KingMotley · · Score: 1

      There are a good number of government employees who make in salary much more than they would if they weren't in the government sector, but add to that, the benefits packages that many/most government employees get (health, dental, sick leave, vacation, holidays, 401k, pension, and early retirement) and then all of a sudden you have MOST government employees making way more than they would elsewhere.

    35. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is rampant in all industries, but especially smaller companies. Accountants comprise a solid quarter of the employees where I work and they account for roughly half the payroll. They're getting close to the point where they'll run the show like they did at my last company, where it became an ever worsening downward spiral as they consumed more and we couldn't even afford to develop new products. The mysterious thing is that they're constantly hiring because they never have enough people, which in turn has constrained Engineering's budget (for both people and R&D), which in turn has necessitated outsourcing in various departments. Accounting seems to ultimately kill many smaller companies when they grow their department at a faster pace than the rest of the company. An Engineer moves on and Accounting hires a glorified data entry person or two so we can't hire another Engineer. The head of Engineering luckily has figured that out and tries to avoid leaving any position open and increasing salaries where possible to keep Accounting from consuming everything (but they caught him on that a year or so ago when they compared our pay to regional medians and underestimated the skill level of everyone in every other department within the company to justify higher salaries in Accounting and cutting our budgets).

      It's a dirty game of chess...

    36. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      This is rampant in all industries, but especially smaller companies. Accountants comprise a solid quarter of the employees where I work and they account for roughly half the payroll. They're getting close to the point where they'll run the show like they did at my last company, where it became an ever worsening downward spiral as they consumed more and we couldn't even afford to develop new products.

      And there it is - the end product of accounting - failure.

      While some accounting is obviously necessary, somewhere along the line, we forgot they produce absolutely nothing, and will consume whatever they are allowed to consume. But accounting has now become the alpha activity.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    37. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I have been with current employer for three years and my last for six years. In my last position I was responsible for hiring. Personally I think the ones that move regularly are moving before or after the get "found out". Its very easy to talk a good game as far as IT is concerned, and there are lots of people who don't know any better that think this is a somewhat glamorous industry...

    38. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by slavdude · · Score: 1

      I've noticed this too. The cynic in me sees IT types as being treated as interchangeable drones who can be dispensed with easily if something goes wrong, ramp-up costs and the effort to replace the lost institutional knowledge be damned. By the same token, though, legacy systems don't go away, and there are certain industries where putting things in the cloud is not practical or desirable. All those WinForms desktop applications aren't going away overnight, any more than mainframe or COBOL computing have. While, yes, one could make an extremely good living contracting in these niches, there is something to be said for longevity when you understand the codebase and/or company workflows and so are able to solve problems and get the job done in a reasonable amount of time.

    39. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by micahraleigh · · Score: 1

      Insightful. Wish I had some mod points. Almost sent that one to my boss.

    40. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by jp10558 · · Score: 1

      I don't know if this is common, but at least some people do get promoted for noticeable raises (maybe because they did have another job offer at the time) at the same place, and so stay for a long time. I list the title changes as different jobs on my resume, and it seems to work for me in getting interviews and job offers if I need to.

      That said, as many other people are pointing out, money isn't everything. Or people figure their effective hourly rate. I've turned down jobs that "pay more" because even though the salary is $30k higher, the monthly rent is 2x in that location, you're expected to work 15hrs more per week and the retirement match is 1/5 as much. The salary sounds better but you end up with less money and less time to do stuff outside of work.

      So I wouldn't hop just to hop. I'm pretty confident that if I were laid off, I could get another job easily enough except for this one thing, I've worked in the same place for 9 years.

      --
      Opera, Proxomitron-Grypen,GPG 0x0A1C6EE3
    41. Re:Career Is But A Quait Concept Now by toddestan · · Score: 1

      I have seen many examples where the guy who says "I have a job offer, match it or I am leaving" every two years advances by leaps compared to his peers that didn't.

      I can't really see that working well. Sure, they may match it, but after that they'll do their best to make sure that they can get rid of you on their terms, and when that happens you won't have the other offer in your back pocket. In that situation you're best off just taking the other offer and splitting ways. Or not telling them about the offer and just making your demands, and if they aren't met then giving your notice.

      On the other hand, what does seem to work well is leaving for 1-2 years then coming back to the same place, often for a significant pay bump.

  2. Bonus Impact by phmadore · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Whole organizations will be reliant on whole other organizations, who may go out of business on the random, or get swallowed up by competitors of whole organizations(1).

    1. Re:Bonus Impact by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      But think of the short term savings!

    2. Re:Bonus Impact by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're always reliant on something from somebody else. The real question is, if that vendor went away, how quickly/easily/cost-effectively could they be replaced? What you don't want is a service with no alternative.

    3. Re:Bonus Impact by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Dockerize everything. Boom, problem solved.

    4. Re:Bonus Impact by major_handicap · · Score: 0

      You can't dockerize everything...try running SAP or PeopleSoft or something big and mammoth in Docker and you'll be doomed.

    5. Re:Bonus Impact by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well if you're using that junk, sucks to be you.

  3. And in most cases it is wrong by rtkluttz · · Score: 5, Insightful

    In reality a hosted cloud is more expensive and less secure in almost all cases. When will people wake up and realize that cloud was created not to provide any particular service that can't be provided locally, but is just a way to turn something you used to pay for once into a monthly forever and ever payment. Cloud is cheaper up front, but almost always more expensive in duration.

    --
    Digital is, by definition, imperfect. Analog is the way to go.
    1. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by mccalli · · Score: 2

      "a way to turn something you used to pay for once into a monthly forever and ever payment"

      Not necessarily, no. If I buy my own kit, I need to care about support contracts for that kit, end of life status for that kit, upgrades, system design for (infrastructure-level) uptime etc.. If I use a cloud service (I hate the word, but it's stuck so there we go) then I don't need to do that.

      It's trade-off. Cloud is not all good, but it's not all bad either. A lot of gardening-style detail of looking after kit goes away, but clearly there are still things you need to worry about.

    2. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by coofercat · · Score: 5, Insightful

      From a business point of view, using the cloud means you get to put your monthly costs into your "op-ex" as opposed to buying a load of stuff up front (with cash) and writing it off over a couple of years on your "cap-ex". That can help your accounts look good because you get to maintain cash flow (particularly in the early days) and don't have lots of assets on the books. Not one single accountant that looks at your accounts will know if you're getting a good deal from your cloud or not, so it's works very well at impressing those sorts of people. Those sorts of people are quite probably your backers and bankers, who are increasingly risk adverse. They don't want to give you loads of cash today which all gets spent immediately (on the promise of success) and so would much rather drip-feed out their investment in you over a couple of years as they see success actually happening.

      Going to the cloud means you don't need start-up capital to get started. In that sense it's very good and a great enabler of small business. However, as you say, once you've started up, you're better off taking the initial hit (from your cash reserve) to buy it all and run it in house. If you've got any sort of reputation to maintain, then moving stuff in-house is pretty much your duty of care (well, it is as soon as you lose your data and your customers complain about it). The question is... when are you no longer a "small business" that can be forgiven minor transgressions and "big enough" that you should know better? It seems to me that lots of really big corps. are trying to pretend they're "small" (ie. lean start-ups) when they absolutely should know better. We'll probably have to ride this out until the next 'fad' comes along.

    3. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by sociocapitalist · · Score: 1

      In reality a hosted cloud is more expensive and less secure in almost all cases. When will people wake up and realize that cloud was created not to provide any particular service that can't be provided locally, but is just a way to turn something you used to pay for once into a monthly forever and ever payment. Cloud is cheaper up front, but almost always more expensive in duration.

      Are you including labor costs of non-cloud support in that calculation...?

      --
      blindly antisocialist = antisocial
    4. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Someone on Slashdot who understands business fundamentals. I hope you are modded up.

    5. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by gmack · · Score: 2

      It is a tradeoff that often works in favor of the cloud for smaller companies. Here, we did the math and discovered that at $5 an email, the yearly cost was higher than my new mail cluster+ 9 TB san we already deployed and that math was still working against the cloud when we applied the resulting proposed discount.

    6. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by jbmartin6 · · Score: 1

      Where in the world is the something you used to pay for once? If you buy it then chuck it in the dumpster maybe. Otherwise there is a long list of ongoing expenses like power, maintenance, floor space, physical security, and on and on and on.

      --
      This posting is provided 'AS IS' without warranty of any kind, implied or otherwise.
    7. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If people at work were charged $5 to send an email, a lot more work would get done.
      and charge $20 for every unneeded person on a CC.

    8. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, but leasing office space is usually more expensive than owning real estate outright. How many companies still own their HQ building these days? OK, Microsoft probably does.

    9. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      From a business point of view, using the cloud means you get to put your monthly costs into your "op-ex" as opposed to buying a load of stuff up front (with cash) and writing it off over a couple of years on your "cap-ex". That can help your accounts look good because you get to maintain cash flow (particularly in the early days) and don't have lots of assets on the books. Not one single accountant that looks at your accounts will know if you're getting a good deal from your cloud or not, so it's works very well at impressing those sorts of people. Those sorts of people are quite probably your backers and bankers, who are increasingly risk adverse. They don't want to give you loads of cash today which all gets spent immediately (on the promise of success) and so would much rather drip-feed out their investment in you over a couple of years as they see success actually happening.

      Going to the cloud means you don't need start-up capital to get started. In that sense it's very good and a great enabler of small business. However, as you say, once you've started up, you're better off taking the initial hit (from your cash reserve) to buy it all and run it in house. If you've got any sort of reputation to maintain, then moving stuff in-house is pretty much your duty of care (well, it is as soon as you lose your data and your customers complain about it). The question is... when are you no longer a "small business" that can be forgiven minor transgressions and "big enough" that you should know better? It seems to me that lots of really big corps. are trying to pretend they're "small" (ie. lean start-ups) when they absolutely should know better. We'll probably have to ride this out until the next 'fad' comes along.

      There's potentially economies of scale in play also. A massive server farm will be cheaper to maintain per server than a dozen or so, and, even with the cloud provider making a profit, the result could be cheaper for many organizations.

    10. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by bytesex · · Score: 1

      'The cloud' is also a backup facility. For those not-so-small companies.

      --
      Religion is what happens when nature strikes and groupthink goes wrong.
    11. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      In reality a hosted cloud is more expensive and less secure in almost all cases. When will people wake up and realize that cloud was created not to provide any particular service that can't be provided locally, but is just a way to turn something you used to pay for once into a monthly forever and ever payment. Cloud is cheaper up front, but almost always more expensive in duration.

      Are you including labor costs of non-cloud support in that calculation...?

      Are you including depreciation of capital equipment?

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    12. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      'The cloud' is also a backup facility. For those not-so-small companies.

      No it isn't. Every single cloud service has lost customers' data. It's down to the business to create backups via the provided tools. But that's rarely used and rarely tested. Find one single company that's using the cloud that has performed a single disaster recovered exercise with it.

    13. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by sociocapitalist · · Score: 1

      Are you including depreciation of capital equipment?

      Sorry what's your point?

      --
      blindly antisocialist = antisocial
    14. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This might be harsh, but if your business doesn't have enough systems in house that you need clusters, and maybe don't need an IT guy to build and maintain that infrastructure, you might be able to cover the cost of quite a few mailboxes.
       
      To take a slightly less severe position, I've found that many cases I don't have sufficient staff to have experts in all areas, particularly areas that aren't core to the business.. So I outsource it, rather than have one guy spending a quarter of his time maintaining a system he isn't expert in, I leverage a vendor whose sole focus is that particular thing. It isn't a panacea though, and needs to be handled on a case by case basis. As it happens, we host our own mail for exactly the reasons you mentioned.

    15. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by swb · · Score: 1

      I work for an IT consultancy and we've seen a surprising number of cloud adopters move back on premise because the costs of cloud were too high (primarily), along with the usual raft of support complaints and inflexibility. Cost is a particular problem because cloud vendor pricing is really opaque and even when it's transparent-ish, you need a degree in accounting to sort out the costs.

      About the only place we haven't seen as much reverting back to on-premise is email which is probably driven by the belief that Exchange is voodoo and bad memories of poorly installed/maintained Exchange installs, and even then only for smaller clients where the on-premise numbers are harder to swallow. Plus email has a longer history of being cloud-like anyway, from the POP3 days to webmail, so it's kind of familiar, especially to less technical decisionmakers.

      I think virtualization has cut into the value proposition of cloud a lot -- if people were still looking at the painful compromise of too many boxes or too many services on one box and the colossal DR headaches of bare metal backup and restore, it would seem a lot more enticing. But with on-premise virtualization you can do a lot of in house DR that's faster than cloud support. Even if its same premise, you end up covering a lot of the likely failure scenarios and you cut your hardware overhead by a metric ton.

      I think the other cloud limiter is WAN connectivity -- it really needs to be fast and reliable, preferably separate-vendor-infrastructure redundant which is expensive and not always all that available in every location or for prices that are at all appealing.

    16. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by Junta · · Score: 1

      Note that one of two things happen:
      1) You are paying someone else the expense of caring about that stuff (on top of their margin)
      or
      2) They are not caring about many of those things, and you may not have to care as much either.

      Note that a *lot* of #2 is happening is these providers. They are doing things that a business wouldn't dare do to themselves (sometimes for not particularly good reasons). A lot of the savings for these customers is getting to close their eyes and not see the stuff they wouldn't do to themselves that turns out to work just fine for the most part. When it does go awry, there are big news stories about an outage that affects a bunch of people, and that does happen to the 'best' of them.

      There are really two things at play, economies of scale (if you need very small utilization of equipment) and moving capex to opex. If you have large scale, then it really is mostly a financial debate about whether you get out better with overall more money, but in opex, or save some money, but it's capex. There is some fierce debate about which way is better.

      --
      XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
    17. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by Jawnn · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Well said, sir. I would only add that regulatory compliance also makes "going to the cloud" more complex and expensive. Despite their claims, most cloud vendors claiming to have "compliant" solutions, have a poor understanding of the regulations their claiming to comply with. Not saying that their aren't vendors who do it right, but from what I've seen, using something from that group is definitely more expensive than doing it in-house.

    18. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      Are you including depreciation of capital equipment?

      Sorry what's your point?

      The point is that somehow, someway cloud eliminates all your problems. When I had a part time business, my capital equipment was depreciated over time, giving me tax benefits. Which was in answer to including the labor costs of non-cloud operations, s a fatal indictment of non-cloud operations.

      Because it doesn't eliminate all your problems, it isn't all blue sky, puppydogs and unicorns.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    19. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by gsslay · · Score: 1

      In reality a hosted cloud is more expensive and less secure in almost all cases. When will people wake up and realize that cloud was created not to provide any particular service that can't be provided locally, but is just a way to turn something you used to pay for once into a monthly forever and ever payment. Cloud is cheaper up front, but almost always more expensive in duration.

      In reality a motorised carriage is more expensive and less safe in almost all cases. When will people wake up and realize that engines were created not to provide transport that can't be provided by horse, but is just a way to turn something you used to feed with hay into a machine that guzzles oil. Motorised carriages are cheaper up front, but almost always more expensive in duration.

    20. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by chispito · · Score: 1

      you used to pay for once into a monthly forever and ever payment. Cloud is cheaper up front, but almost always more expensive in duration.

      Pay for once? Support contracts, software licensing, and qualified staff to run and maintain it all for you are neither inexpensive nor one-time costs.

      --
      The Daddy casts sleep on the Baby. The Baby resists!
    21. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      At one company I worked at, the bean counters figured that every email sent company-wide cost the company $700 in lost productivity for 3,000+ workers who had to stop, read the email, and read the subsequent reply-all emails. That didn't stop the management team from sending out company-wide emails.

    22. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by scsirob · · Score: 1

      Go ahead, delete a record in Salesforce (*the* leading example of SaaS), and then try to get that record back.
      Go ahead, I dare you.

      --
      To Terminate, or not to Terminate, that's the question - SCSIROB
    23. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by afidel · · Score: 1

      Find one single company that's using the cloud that has performed a single disaster recovered exercise with it.

      Netflix, they continuously test their DR practices with chaos monkey.

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    24. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by mlts · · Score: 1

      IMHO, cloud storage is just another storage medium, like disks, tapes, DVDs, or printouts. It has its good points, and it has its shortcomings.

      The trick is to use the cloud, but also have backup/storage locally. Take NetBackup. It isn't tough to configure it to go use S3, making sure all data is encrypted. You can do this as a secondary means of migrating data, as a primary storage method, or an archival method. Ideally, you want to dump data to a local storage device that uses SSD, just so backup windows can be short, then propagate the critical data to the cloud as need be, keeping everything else on local arrays.

      Is the cloud the magic bullet for backups? No. Security, costs for WAN access, and other gotchas are present. However, as a storage medium, it is something useful to have.

    25. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by rtkluttz · · Score: 1

      Yes, but the point with the capex opex game is that. Its just a game that shuffles money around. In reality in REAL money, It is nearly always cheaper in the long run to stay out of the cloud.

      --
      Digital is, by definition, imperfect. Analog is the way to go.
    26. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But not, apparently, the difference between averse and adverse.

    27. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by bev_tech_rob · · Score: 1

      In reality a hosted cloud is more expensive and less secure in almost all cases. When will people wake up and realize that cloud was created not to provide any particular service that can't be provided locally, but is just a way to turn something you used to pay for once into a monthly forever and ever payment. Cloud is cheaper up front, but almost always more expensive in duration.

      In reality a motorised carriage is more expensive and less safe in almost all cases. When will people wake up and realize that engines were created not to provide transport that can't be provided by horse, but is just a way to turn something you used to feed with hay into a machine that guzzles oil. Motorised carriages are cheaper up front, but almost always more expensive in duration.

      Just shut up...

      --
      You're messin' with my Zen Thing, man.....
    28. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by Darinbob · · Score: 1

      But if you lose all your data because it was in the cloud, or it is compromised, who do the business guys blame?

    29. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by The-Ixian · · Score: 1

      In reality a hosted cloud is more expensive and less secure in almost all cases.

      Well, in Microsoft's case, for about $45000/year/300 users (business premium tier 3 plan) you get quite a few services.

      By the time you buy all the software licenses (with software assurance) and the hardware with the same amount of redundancy that the cloud offers (redundant high speed links, load balancers, etc), plus figure in staff or a consulting firm to set it all up and then maintain it (backups, updates, etc) you are looking at a much larger price tag than $45000/year.

      And you still wouldn't have all of the features that you get when living in the cloud.

      As for security... well, if you architect poor security from the start, you will have poor security. As in, if you are running your own servers... you really need to know what you are doing to make a secure system from the ground up. I will say that people with a much higher pay grade than me architected the cloud services I use. I tend to trust that they know what they are doing more than me.

      All I am saying is not all IT managers can be stupid... And yet, across the board, moving to the cloud (especially Microsoft's cloud) is a pretty popular thing to be doing.

      --
      My eyes reflect the stars and a smile lights up my face.
    30. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by jrumney · · Score: 1

      In reality a hosted cloud is more expensive and less secure in almost all cases.

      For a large company that is probably true. For smaller companies that have one overworked IT support worker, cloud hosting makes sense in a lot of cases for both security and cost reasons.

    31. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by jrumney · · Score: 1

      $5 an email means what exactly - $5 per support email you send to the hosting company? If it's $5 per email passing through a cloud hosted email server, I don't see how that can be economical for any company, and will soon lead to disputes over whether a sudden deluge of spam shortly before the hosting company posts its year-end financial results is actually a malicious attempt at extracting revenue or unlucky coincidence.

    32. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by gmack · · Score: 1

      Somehow "address" got left off the post. It's $5 per email address.

    33. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by sociocapitalist · · Score: 1

      Are you including depreciation of capital equipment?

      Sorry what's your point?

      The point is that somehow, someway cloud eliminates all your problems. When I had a part time business, my capital equipment was depreciated over time, giving me tax benefits. Which was in answer to including the labor costs of non-cloud operations, s a fatal indictment of non-cloud operations.

      Because it doesn't eliminate all your problems, it isn't all blue sky, puppydogs and unicorns.

      Depreciation over time vs. cloud being an operating expense which is 100% deductable as you pay it so yes, from that point of view it is also better on the bottom line.

      I never said it fixes jack shit incidentally - just that CEOs/CFOs are going to go for it because it's cheap.

      --
      blindly antisocialist = antisocial
    34. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by gsslay · · Score: 1

      What a well-crafted and convincing counter argument.

    35. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      Depreciation over time vs. cloud being an operating expense which is 100% deductable as you pay it so yes, from that point of view it is also better on the bottom line.

      But the expense goes on forever.

      I never said it fixes jack shit incidentally - just that CEOs/CFOs are going to go for it because it's cheap.

      If there is high demand, it won't be cheap for long. And if the cloud provider goes out of business orloses your data, it's not so cheap. And you are just another customer.

      Guess it's just a matter of falling off that bridge when we get to it. It''s just another inhouse vs outsource argument. And outsourcing is always cheaper until it isn't

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    36. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by sociocapitalist · · Score: 1

      Depreciation over time vs. cloud being an operating expense which is 100% deductable as you pay it so yes, from that point of view it is also better on the bottom line.

      But the expense goes on forever.

      I never said it fixes jack shit incidentally - just that CEOs/CFOs are going to go for it because it's cheap.

      If there is high demand, it won't be cheap for long. And if the cloud provider goes out of business orloses your data, it's not so cheap. And you are just another customer.

      Guess it's just a matter of falling off that bridge when we get to it. It''s just another inhouse vs outsource argument. And outsourcing is always cheaper until it isn't

      CEOs don't think in terms of forever. They think in terms of 'how can I maximize profits NOW so that I can make a huge bonus and move on to the next company that I can rape for even more money?'.

      Nothing else goes through their heads. Nothing. Ever.

      So it doesn't matter that the cost goes on forever. It isn't even worth arguing about the fact that in-house costs also go on forever. Because it just doesn't matter.

      --
      blindly antisocialist = antisocial
    37. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      So it doesn't matter that the cost goes on forever. It isn't even worth arguing about the fact that in-house costs also go on forever. Because it just doesn't matter.

      How's that nihilistic cynicism workin' out for ya?

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    38. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by sociocapitalist · · Score: 1

      So it doesn't matter that the cost goes on forever. It isn't even worth arguing about the fact that in-house costs also go on forever. Because it just doesn't matter.

      How's that nihilistic cynicism workin' out for ya?

      Typical - conversation doesn't go your way so you sideline into an insult.

      Go away now :-)

      --
      blindly antisocialist = antisocial
    39. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      How's that nihilistic cynicism workin' out for ya?

      Typical - conversation doesn't go your way so you sideline into an insult.

      Go away now :-)

      Nihhilistic cynicism is a description, not an insult. I'm a cynic, but not nihilistic. It is what you are, so why you would take that as an insult, is beyond me

      If I called you an asshat, now that would be an insult. But I didn't. And I had no idea that the conversation wasn't going my way.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    40. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by jp10558 · · Score: 1

      Do you really get out of support contracts, software licensing, and qualified staff with the Cloud? Because as far as I can tell, if you need Windows licenses, it's an extra fee per cpu hour on the cloud. If you need the Cloud vendor to maintain the OS, it's a massive extra fee per server (well, compared to just running the OS, it's orders of magnitude more expensive). I shudder to think what the fee is to manage the application on top of the cloud stack for you. And all of that is basically a support contract with the vendor.

      Unless you're talking SaaS, in which case the per user cost can be eye opening, and you still get that "great support" from the vendor where you wait on hold for someone in India to run you through a script... if you even get a phone number to call. Plus, forget about just staying with a version that works for you for a while with SaaS. You can't choose to go off maintenance and re-buy when you actually need an upgrade and have budgeted for it.

      I have no idea what the SaaS to SaaS migration path / idea is either.

      --
      Opera, Proxomitron-Grypen,GPG 0x0A1C6EE3
    41. Re:And in most cases it is wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In reality a motorised carriage is more expensive and less safe in almost all cases....

      This is a stupid analogy. A much better one is purchasing a car vs. taxi cab. Short-term a taxi is much cheaper. Depending on your usage levels it can be cheaper even long term. Sadly here our availability requirements make the taxi approach cost prohibitive.

      If you stop to think it is very obvious. The ONLY reason cloud can be cheaper is because they can have:
      Higher density in the DC which results in cheaper per server cost of space
      Better hardware discounts due to greater purchasing power
      Better VM density due to larger and more diverse workload
      Better labour utilization due to larger and more diverse workload

      Those savings, plus a healthy margin, have to come out enough cheaper than on-premises to off-set:
      The cost of an Improved network link to the cloud provider
      Increased uncertainty of heavily relying on the cloud provider
      cost of migrating to cloud service

      So it basically comes down to a cost-benefits analysis. And it turns out that many of the early adopters had unrealistic expectations and are now migrating back to on-premises. Economies of scale turn in to diminishing returns very quickly in the data centre world. If your DC+hardware+OS licensing budget is over $300,000/year you are not going to save significant amounts of money going to the cloud while adding significant risk.

      Many managers want to use "cloud" simply to remove it from their area of responsibility but most of the time that is not a good enough reason when weighed against the inflexibility cloud introduces. And with all things, the better and more flexible a cloud service you get, the greater the cost, and the lesser the benefit of "out-sourcing" to the cloud.

  4. No change for me by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I've been a programmer/senior engineer for 30 years; never swapped out a drive, pulled a cable or plugged in a server at work.

    1. Re: No change for me by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Same here. I don't even program anymore - that's what the Indians are for.

    2. Re: No change for me by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's why your software doesn't work...

    3. Re:No change for me by jon3k · · Score: 1

      Congratulations on being one of the few not outsourced to India or replaced by H1-B workers. You are in the minority. You're even more replaceable than the helpdesk guy, because he needs to be on site to turn someones computer off/on.

    4. Re:No change for me by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      I worked at the Google help desk for a little while in 2008, where I had to walk a new employee from Stanford University through the process of TURNING ON THE COMPUTER. He was shocked — shocked! — that a cubicle farm wasn't like a university computer lab where someone walked around to turn on the computers and made sure they worked everyday.

    5. Re:No change for me by theArtificial · · Score: 1

      I would be extremely interested in more anecdotal Google experiences (seriously). I'm not sure if I could resist telling them to Google something or not.

      --
      Man blir trött av att gå och göra ingenting.
    6. Re:No change for me by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      I used to make engineers cry all the time when they requested a software package that had to be manually installed on their Windows XP workstation, which didn't allow concurrent user sessions like Windows Server 2003. A typical engineer had 30 windows open at any given time, and it took 15 minutes to log out of the system.

  5. We're still trusting the cloud? by geekmux · · Score: 3

    Seriously?

    Wonder how many more times we're going to hear of cloud architectures being compromised before that idiotic mentality changes.

    1. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Seriously?

      Wonder how many more times we're going to hear of cloud architectures being compromised before that idiotic mentality changes.

      While that is certainly a valid comment, the alternative that you seem to imply is that everyone hosts and maintains their own infrastructure. And do it more securely than the 'cloud'. For most organizations, that just does not make sense. Even a mid-size company would be hard pressed to keep their stuff more secure and/or reliable than a specialized cloud provider. Yeah, there are still going to be incidents, but that is _also_ the case with in-house IT. So unless you are a very large organization or your systems are particularly sensitive or critical (banks, military, air traffic control, whatever), it still makes sense to me.

    2. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by houghi · · Score: 1

      Compromomized in what way? When I see hpw other solutions are compromized, I don't think that The Cloud is the problem.

      The problem is that data, by its very nature, is unsafe.Data is intended to be shared, so it is unsafe.

      Combine that with the fact that the majority of people is not safety minded and you have compromized systems.

      All you can do is try to stop them as long as possible or make what they steal not worth their wile.

      This would mean thinking if having all that data is more important than the risk it poses. As the risk is not by the people maintaining the data, the answer is a big YES.

      So first let ccompanies take reposability when things go wrong. I I mean hefty fines if data is stolen if the data they maintained was not essential for their operations.

      This means e.g. credit card numbers; solcial security numbers and what not. And I mean essential, not "easier".

      As that will never happen in my lifetime, data will be compromized, regardless if it is in The Cloud or on my moms USB drive.

      --
      Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
    3. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by l3v1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Problem is, when a company's own infrastructure gets compromised, they get fsckd, but when a 'cloud' provider gets compromised, everyone they host get fsckd.

      --
      I am putting myself to the fullest possible use, which is all I can think that any conscious entity can ever hope to do.
    4. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by Anonymous+Brave+Guy · · Score: 1

      I'm guessing the GP's point was that people keep saying the cloud should be more secure and reliable for most organisations, but the evidence to support that is looking more sketchy almost by the day and the critics are starting to say "I told you so".

      Pretty much all the major cloud infrastructure providers have had major outages. Plenty of business-critical software-as-a-service providers have had major outages, privacy leaks, data loss, and so on. Some services have been discontinued. Some prices have been hiked. Some services have been changed in ways that made them less useful for certain customers as the service developed, and maybe their customers then found their data is effectively locked in as well.

      Perhaps most telling, quite a few small/medium businesses have suffered unnecessary outages because they hadn't configured their cloud-based systems properly. It's all very well saying that your Amazon-hosted services could have been robust against the data centre flooding if you'd just set option 17A to distribute the back-ups across multiple sub-sites of your logical cluster in the relevant geographical region of your continental group, but the fact is, people thought they were resilient using the cloud and their systems still failed. At this point, I don't think it's credible any more to argue that in-house systems will fail due to lack of expertise but that complicated cloud-hosted deployments will magically work when set up by the same level of staff.

      --
      If you disagree, post your argument. (-1, Overrated) isn't your personal censorship tool for views you don't like.
    5. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      How many more times are we going to here about some company's own servers being compromised before that idiotic mentality changes?

      The nice thing about companies running their own servers is they tend to not notice that they've been compromised longer than a company whose only business is providing cloud services so they can bask in the belief they aren't the idiots.

    6. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      These are people we're talking about. The majority of us are idiots that respond to stimuli no better than lab rats.

    7. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by sociocapitalist · · Score: 1

      Seriously?

      Wonder how many more times we're going to hear of cloud architectures being compromised before that idiotic mentality changes.

      You have to keep in mind that most CEOs aren't going to give a shit if it's really secure as all they care about is the bottom line - which means cutting labor costs - which means going to a cloud service.

      --
      blindly antisocialist = antisocial
    8. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by lgw · · Score: 2

      That's not a problem, that's somebody else's fault, which is the first thing and CIO looks for in any solution.

      Though, really, have we ever seen the clouds from Amazon, Google, or Microsoft get compromised?

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    9. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by jon3k · · Score: 1

      I miss the good old days before the cloud when nothing was ever hacked. Right, guys? Right?

      Take a look at the hacks over the last few years and tell me how many were due to compromised public clouds. Home Depot? Nope. Target? Nope. Heartland? Nope.

    10. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by geekmux · · Score: 1

      Seriously?

      Wonder how many more times we're going to hear of cloud architectures being compromised before that idiotic mentality changes.

      You have to keep in mind that most CEOs aren't going to give a shit if it's really secure as all they care about is the bottom line - which means cutting labor costs - which means going to a cloud service.

      Perhaps we should ask Noel Biderman what he thinks about not giving a shit about anything but the bottom lin...oh wait, that's right. He'll soon not have a bottom line to worry about anymore.

    11. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by chispito · · Score: 1

      At this point, I don't think it's credible any more to argue that in-house systems will fail due to lack of expertise but that complicated cloud-hosted deployments will magically work when set up by the same level of staff.

      Do you think it is easier or more difficult to configure a cloud deployment than to host it yourself?

      --
      The Daddy casts sleep on the Baby. The Baby resists!
    12. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by afidel · · Score: 1

      Though, really, have we ever seen the clouds from Amazon, Google, or Microsoft get compromised?
      Yes, the NSA has ALL of them infiltrated. Google and MS have been trying to lock them out through more internal encryption but you can bet anything that they then just receive a national security letter that tells them to turn over their encryption keys, even for servers outside the US.

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    13. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      All the time. But its never THEIR fault when something gets pwned, It's the leaser's own fault for not setting up X according to Y.

    14. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by lgw · · Score: 2

      The NSA has everything compromised, though, so that doesn't differentiate cloud from non-cloud. That's very different from, say, the Sony hack, where everything becomes public.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    15. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by Anonymous+Brave+Guy · · Score: 1

      Do I think it should be easier to configure a cloud deployment? Probably.

      Do I think it actually is, based on real life experience of seeing people try to do both? Not even close.

      I think the ease of deployment of cloud services is one of the great IT lies of our generation, but so many people have bet on it now that it's very hard for them to acknowledge that not everything has worked out as idyllic as it was supposed to be according to the brochure. As the saying goes, it's hard to accept something as the truth when your salary depends on it being false.

      --
      If you disagree, post your argument. (-1, Overrated) isn't your personal censorship tool for views you don't like.
    16. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There are benefits, though. The leak is highly compartmentalized and limited to a single entity. With a high concentration of resources in finite locations, their destruction is easier.

      This is why the Internet was laid out the way it was - it was more robust due to a highly distributed architecture. While one small piece could fail, the rest would continue with little, if any, interruption.

    17. Re:We're still trusting the cloud? by Wheely · · Score: 1

      This is truth!

      "Somebody else's fault" can not be quantifies in mere monetary value. It is priceless to many in upper management. It is the basis of the cut and thrust of living in the upper echelons of large corporations and a trifling issue such as cost is irrelevant by comparison.

  6. IT Careers will look much the same by silas_moeckel · · Score: 1

    There will be less of them. Already most corp IT is not IT but vendor management the cloud move is going from outside vendors taking care of your inhouse IT shop to outside vendors taking care of your cloud IT shop.

    Overall this is a good thing boil down the IT staff to the real people and boil off the fluff. Give it a decade and watch core business functions go back in house as companies figure out a one size fits all is to ridged.

    --
    No sir I dont like it.
    1. Re:IT Careers will look much the same by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I noticed that all the people he quoted saying everything was moving to the cloud and there would be no in-house in 5 years were all senior execs of cloud companies. Perhaps just a little conflict of interest there, maybe?

    2. Re:IT Careers will look much the same by silas_moeckel · · Score: 1

      I laughed when a client was looking for a cloud solution to store their pb's of cad and high res imaging data, they had a blazing fast 10mbs internet BTW. Napkin math showed that even a 10ge internet link would not give him acceptable access speeds since latency matters.

      If your talking about office productivity sure grab a google or o365 account and pray they don't start charging more or drop a feature you need. Sure they are great at sucking data in getting it back out can be a pita. Just look at MSSQL for the long game of give it cheap then once you have a decade or more of investment charge more but still less than the cost to migrate.

      --
      No sir I dont like it.
  7. all stripes moving infrastructure to the cloud? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Organizations of all stripes are increasingly moving IT infrastructure to the cloud."
    FALSE /Schrute
    This assumes all kinds of organizations are moving any portion to the cloud. Some organizations will never, ever, give up control of their IT infrastructure to external companies. Especially cloud providers. And by that, I mean cloud providers won't be using the cloud unless they're a ponzi-scheme style provider.

    1. Re:all stripes moving infrastructure to the cloud? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My cloud is built on top of other clouds. In fact, it is clouds all the way down!

    2. Re:all stripes moving infrastructure to the cloud? by Anon-Admin · · Score: 1

      I dont know about that, I worked at a cloud provider that was outsourcing there cloud to another cloud provider in India.

      It looked good on paper which is all that the upper management cared about.

    3. Re:all stripes moving infrastructure to the cloud? by Sique · · Score: 1

      Especially cloud providers will be customers of other cloud providers - imagine them being new to some market niche and don't having the capacity to serve them all, cloud providers can rent clouds at other providers much more easily.

      --
      .sig: Sique *sigh*
  8. An article about the ubiquity of cloud services by by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    A rep from a cloud services company.

    Nothing to see here.

  9. And yet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    if we follow this vision what little IT staff remains will still get the blame when the cloud fails.

  10. Looks like I better stock up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    On blank 3.5" floppy drives, and wallets to hold them.

    1. Re:Looks like I better stock up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      WTF is a

      blank 3.5" floppy drive

      And why are you beginning your post in your subject?

  11. Not really. by magamiako1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    People keep saying this to me. "Oh we won't need your type in a few years because cloud everything." Never mind the fact that around 99% of my work is software-based. I only rarely on occasion mess with hardware. Every 5 years for a hardware refresh, and the occasional drive swap from a vendor. Everything else I do is software-based. And it really doesn't matter whether it's "in the cloud", or "on premise". My job role stays the same. So I save a whole 15 minutes a year on not having to swap drives.

    What you will see with "cloud", just like "virtualization", is a maturation of the technology's use inside a company. Not every workload is appropriate for virtualization, and not every workload will be appropriate nor cost effective in the cloud. The cloud is great for every "devops" guy who thinks they're going to write the next Facebook, Amazon, or Netflix--but yet again, for 99% of companies out there, workloads are entirely static. There's just little need for "SUPER HYPER SCALE AUTOSCALING UP AND DOWN CLOUD INFRASTRUCTURE" for a vast majority of business workloads.

    Specific applications are hugely appropriate for "cloud", particularly e-mail (and I say this as an Exchange Administrator). And for these "we need this up 110% of the time" applications, they'll find that if the "cloud vendor" has a problem there's nobody they can call to fix the issue. And never underestimate the value of management having someone that they can call to "look at the issue right away at 2:30AM". This need will keep a lot of folks employed.

    Finally, you can't really depreciate cloud assets like you can capital expenses. So really, again, you're ultimately just comparing the cost of operating a datacenter versus the cloud technology. And you can already not worry about operating your own datacenter by simply using a colocated one.

    So at the end of the day, no matter how much technology changes. No, the 'devops' revolution isn't actually going to happen, and being able to swap a drive or add some ram will still be a necessary skill.

    1. Re:Not really. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well said.

      Also keep in mind you are only as good as your provider. If they suck. You suck. Meaning you end up managing it anyway. We found that out the hard way. Or they may be glorious on all the charts, reviews, and whatever; but what does your contract say?

      How tied to your provider are you? Does your whole process revolve around that providers stack? If so you have a big problem. You can not move. In some cases it means you can not upgrade/expand. Meaning you are locked in with an ever increasing cost with hardware that does not meet your needs.

      'cloud' is just shorthand for 'I am renting someone elses hardware'.

    2. Re:Not really. by lgw · · Score: 1

      Not every workload is appropriate for virtualization

      People still think this? There's no performance downside to virtualization any more, unless you overload the host, and you get the ability to make snapshots if nothing else.

      And for these "we need this up 110% of the time" applications, they'll find that if the "cloud vendor" has a problem there's nobody they can call to fix the issue

      Always read your SLA. Many cloud-provided services are well supported, with people oncall 24/7 if the service itself goes down. Amazon is infamous for putting all its devs on pager duty, and the cloudy parts of MS as well (haven't heard about Google - anyone know who gets the pager duty there?). But you can't assume anything, and if you want someone to call, of course you'll need a support contract, just like anything else in IT.

      Finally, you can't really depreciate cloud assets like you can capital expenses. So really, again, you're ultimately just comparing the cost of operating a datacenter versus the cloud technology. And you can already not worry about operating your own datacenter by simply using a colocated one.

      The cloud is just a colo all grown up. What only the cloud offers is "I need 1000 new servers tomorrow, but I only want to pay for them for a week". (And capital depreciation is not a feature. It's when you spend all the money this year, but for taxes you must spread the cost over several years - it's almost always better to count the cost ASAP.)

      being able to swap a drive or add some ram will still be a necessary skill.

      But not a particularly valuable one - it's a blue-collar job now, like pulling cable.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    3. Re:Not really. by Sir_Eptishous · · Score: 1

      Specific applications are hugely appropriate for "cloud", particularly e-mail (and I say this as an Exchange Administrator).

      Have fun migrating to (cough...)Office 365(cough...)!

      --
      We play the game with the bravery of being out of range
    4. Re:Not really. by magamiako1 · · Score: 1

      Yes, People still "think" this. And it's in your best interest to read the platform documentation for the systems and applications you're leveraging before you make decisions on whether to go physical or virtual.

      As an example of the "scalability problem", Microsoft has documented their Exchange 2013 Preferred Architecture--which is pretty much 2U, 2CPU servers with JBOD of 7200 RPM disks. Essentially, you take away what you think and know being a VM platform guy (Snapshots, SANs, LUNs, RAID, etc.) and throw it out the window because none of it applies to Exchange 2013 (and newer). Microsoft, and other application vendors, have built resiliency into the application stack. Because of this, all of your traditional VM methods of failover (host failover, DRS, HA) do not apply to the technology. Or rather, is an unsupported configuration which may result in performance problems at best, and data resiliency problems at worst.

      The links below don't necessarily say don't virtualize, but they do say to understand the design they're going for and build appropriately (scale out, not up). VM Architecture is a massive overhead cost in comparison of throwing a bunch of dumb servers together and saying "make it work".

      http://blogs.technet.com/b/exchange/archive/2014/04/21/the-preferred-architecture.aspx
      http://blogs.technet.com/b/exchange/archive/2015/06/19/ask-the-perf-guy-how-big-is-too-big.aspx

      This is just one particular item that I think doesn't lend itself well to virtualization, but another area is SQL server--where the disk i/o requirements of SQL are so intense that it's cheaper to build out a dedicated SQL cluster than it is to build out a virtualization environment that meets the disk i/o needs of the databases.

      An application which leans heavily on iops workload is something like Sharepoint (https://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/library/cc298801.aspx). Microsoft strongly recommends dedicating a cluster to Sharepoint, do not share (do not add an instance to a cluster running other applications), and that for a large size you may need some serious iops.

      Again, these things aren't impossible to virtualize. But the raw needs of both of these applications lend themselves better to physical hardware rather than being tossed on a VM cluster. By the time you dedicate enough resources (whether CPU time, dynamic memory usage, or io priority) to these apps, you would have been better off just buying some dedicated physical hardware, and you'd end up with much better performance.

      Yes, for a lot of workloads VM is great. Things like low end application servers, scale-out web servers (using web clusters preferably where you can) are great. You can get a lot of VM density on a great many workloads. But not everything can be done this way. Unless you want to put 100Gbps links in all of your physical servers going to your storage clusters...and SSDs everywhere.

    5. Re:Not really. by jp10558 · · Score: 1

      The interesting thing for me is we have a compute cluster running OpenGrid Engine (SGE). It seems like one of the best fits for cloud computing at first blush. Much of the time it's idle, so "in the cloud" it costs "0" when not using it. (there's always an OS image storage cost or something so keeping it ready to go isn't truly $0 but closeish)

      The problem is data access. We have tens of GB of data and a 30Mbit pipe at best to the cloud. The compute is worthless if they can't access the data, and local 1Gbit has too much latency for network operations - it can cause orders of magnitude slowdowns in waiting for the NFS transactions to occur. For certain data sizes, you can locally RSYNC the data in for processing and then RSYNC out your results. But if it takes 4 days to upload the dataset - even if you could use 10x as many nodes, you're still done sooner on site because the data transfer is 1Gbit instead of 30Mbit at best. And on site you can limit to where the transfer is 10Gbit (some nodes support it).

      Latency, difficulty of accessing local environment, accounts, network storage, throughput limits all ON TOP OF constant billing which is usually not any cheaper TCO compared to lower maintenance costs on owned hardware and depreciation.

      Heck, even for a simple tiny multi core process, we tried cloud and it went no where. We could get a 16 core machine for $2 / hour. The problem was we either had to pay for the whole month, or there was a variable 10min-1hr startup time before you could then log in to the machine because shutting down the VM didn't stop billing - you had to decommission it, and recommission it each time, which meant waiting for the whole OS to load over the SAN at the cloud vendor.

      Our users found it cheaper to buy a 8 core machine than pay for 3 months of the cloud service. And they refused to wait that long each time they wanted to use the software - they'd get distracted and never run the calculation with that lag to starting.

      Even e-mail is crappy in O365 for us. We went from broadly supported IMAP standard e-mail, to whatever MS thinks is IMAP, OWA and Outlook. All of which end up worse for most of our users, but especially vexing for the Mac and Linux users.

      --
      Opera, Proxomitron-Grypen,GPG 0x0A1C6EE3
  12. And there will be no mainframes or COBOL either by Required+Snark · · Score: 2
    It's not reasonable to say nothing will change in the next five years, but get real. Yes, a lot of organization will blindly follow the herd, but not everyone will. A lot of stuff will stay exactly the same.

    "The cloud" is not a magic carpet, and there are a lot of organizations who will get burned by falling for all the hype. I personally know a cloud based service provider that actually believed the marketing crap on reliability. When their cloud provider (one of the big two) crashed they had no backup and no recovery plan either. They were flat on their back for a week, and were still picking up the pieces a month after that. One more of those and they might just shut their doors.

    So here is another fad, and the inevitable backlash will come when it fails to deliver. So how dumb do you have to be to announce the start of a brand new shiny paradigm shift that will make everything really different in a blink of an eye. Grow up.

    --
    Why is Snark Required?
    1. Re:And there will be no mainframes or COBOL either by Psychotria · · Score: 2

      So here is another fad, and the inevitable backlash will come when it fails to deliver. So how dumb do you have to be to announce the start of a brand new shiny paradigm shift that will make everything really different in a blink of an eye. Grow up.

      There is no paradigm shift. "The Cloud" is just another way of saying distributed computing which was available in the 1960s and became popular in the 70s. It then started a slow decline because it was shit. Mostly it was shit because of network speed, but on the other hand it was shit because you relied on a remote location. It's still shit and I really hope this "Cloud" evaporates sooner rather than later.

    2. Re:And there will be no mainframes or COBOL either by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ..I personally know a cloud based service provider that actually believed the marketing crap on reliability. When their cloud provider (one of the big two) crashed they had no backup and no recovery plan either. They were flat on their back for a week, and were still picking up the pieces a month after that. One more of those and they might just shut their doors.

      No backups and no recovery plan.

      Honestly, if they didn't learn something from that rather massive fuck-up the first time around, they deserve what they get when it happens again.

      And ignorance alone assumes it won't happen again.

    3. Re:And there will be no mainframes or COBOL either by l3v1 · · Score: 1

      Well, if your company jumped all-in for a 'cloudy' solution, having backups and a real recovery plan probably means keeping a local infrastructure in place, just-in-case. I don't think there are many who do that.

      --
      I am putting myself to the fullest possible use, which is all I can think that any conscious entity can ever hope to do.
  13. No Career anymore by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Now you have skills or not.

    Companies hire based on skills, and that's it pretty much.

    You will have to fence for your own skill turf (don't wait for being taught in school / university - tech changes too fast for them to be relevant in the long run).

  14. In 5 years it will look at lot like now by Stonefish · · Score: 1

    The cloud is a new service, for some it will be economical and for others it won't be. If the cloud was really changing IT companies like IBM, HP and Microsoft etc would be tanking. They're not so these clowns are just trying to convince you to part with your cash. Yes the cloud will mean the mum and dad companies can run their IT services in the Interwebs however bigger companies will still see the break even point for running their own infrastructure with maybe their backup web presence in the cloud when and if it makes sense. In the final analysis money talks and bullshit walks.

    1. Re:In 5 years it will look at lot like now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The cloud is a new service,

      No, it's NOT. Now, the telecommunications have come down in price, and improved in speed to the point where it may may an option for many more companies.

    2. Re:In 5 years it will look at lot like now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Indeed all of the mainframe guys were selling access to time share services...in early 1980s and before...

  15. IT as a utility - we're already there. by zerofoo · · Score: 5, Insightful

    At our school, here's the list of stuff we pushed into the cloud in the last few years:

    Student information system (attendance, grades, IEPs, lesson plans - the lot). This eliminated an RDP server farm and a couple of SQL servers.

    Email - this eliminated a couple of Exchange Servers.

    Student data storage and applications - Google Apps eliminated most of our Windows and Mac student workstations. Chromebooks are cheap and easy.

    Firewalls/VPN - management of these devices is now in the cloud - goodbye to local firmware updates and far more flexible provisioning of devices.

    MDM - no longer in-house.

    In each case we realized cost savings simply due to sharing someone else's infrastructure instead of home-brewing our own. Security concerns in the cloud are overblown by those trying to save their jobs. The fact is that most small to medium size businesses can not afford to have the security talent that most cloud companies have.

    We don't make our own water or power - why should we try to build all of our IT?

    1. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The one time cost of a server and OS vs the monthly or annual cost of off site services that WILL go up every contract will quickly eat into your budget then it will be 'cheaper' to bring it all back in house.

      School districts are the last place to find competent IT... so I guess in that industry its a good thing.

    2. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by magamiako1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      And then your Internet connection goes out.

    3. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We don't make our own water or power - why should we try to build all of our IT?

      Hi, I'm from the NSA and I approve this message.

    4. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by ILongForDarkness · · Score: 1

      In most cases if your internet connection is out work stops anyways. My work we us google for mail, and Skype for IM but otherwise have everything in house. Still if we have a glitch work slows down to a crawl. Every time you try to do something and need to look up a manual page or something, oh crap can't access the site. Huh, okay maybe I can do something else ... oh crap that bug has a link to a website, can't work on that ... It quickly becomes "lunch time" for everyone in the office for that 30min or whatever where the gateway is having issues.

    5. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And one idiot on Campus with an errant JCB (backhoe digger) and your are stuffed then?

      Putting all your eggs in one basket might look good on paper and a few spreadsheets but I'd be making sure that my CV is kept updated.
      What can go wrong will go wrong. A lot of cloud purponents seem to have forgotten that.

    6. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My work we us google for mail, and Skype for IM but otherwise have everything in house. Still if we have a glitch work slows down to a crawl.

      If your data, print, and application servers are all in-house, why are you relying on external email and messaging? Trying for a worst-of-both-worlds approach?

    7. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You do know that saying something is "in the cloud" just means you are paying someone else to do it for you right? It is like expecting a financial planner to manage your money with more care than you would. Why would cloud service providers put the effort that you would? It isn't their data, you don't have the control to know when something bad happened, and besides, they have to cut corners to keep the price of "The Cloud" low enough to justify the added managerial and profit overhead of their own employer.

    8. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Yes, but the share price will go up, and the managers who outsourced all that stuff will exercise their stock options and move on before the inevitable disasters happen.

      In most business, reward systems encourage managers to make short-term savings with no concern about the long term. So they do exactly that.

    9. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by ageoffri · · Score: 1
      Actually I do expect my financial planner to not only manager my investments with more care than I would, but with more knowledge of investments then I have. I played that game for a year or so with my 401k, and in the end I get a higher rate of return by letting the managing company chose where my money is invested based off of some broad rules I set.

      We get control through solid contracts, with limits of liability and indemnification and insurance. I'm sure there is some cost cutting, but the really cost savings is through scale, for the cloud providers.

      --
      -- Slashdot, making the Left look conservative since 1997.
    10. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by ILongForDarkness · · Score: 1

      Yep. The other servers are likely to have source code and such (bug/feature ticketing, Stash repos, TFS etc). Why GMail: not sure. We build collaboration software so our products do need to interact with google, Office 365, SharePoint etc etc not sure if they just figured we all need a business account for G Drive anyways to test our software we might as well get the email service too or what.

    11. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The same errant backhoe will kill most of your IT function anyway, as most people assume internet=computer. That and if you've got more than about 200 simultaneous users, the cost of a physically redundant line is not huge. We've got a redundant OC-3 for something on the order of $200/mo, so when the errant backhoe strikes, we'll have to kill youtube and bittorrent to keep QoS tolerable. Not a huge deal.

    12. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by Sir_Eptishous · · Score: 1

      Security concerns in the cloud are overblown by those trying to save their jobs.

      Wow, really?
      Your post was interesting until I read this.
      Depending on what you are putting on someone elses servers/infrastructure I guess security isn't a priority.
      And yes, I support and configure systems that run on "cloud" infrastructure.
      To make such a blanket statement about offsite resources(as I like to call it) is naive.

      --
      We play the game with the bravery of being out of range
    13. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Would you mind telling which school, or give a general size to provide some perspective?

      I ask because I am in IT at the University of Colorado Boulder and could not imagine a situation where we would push our SIS to an outsourced cloud provider. We have moved staff email to Office365, student mail to Google, etc., but that was more about shifting blame than providing a better service.

    14. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by neurovish · · Score: 1

      And then your Internet connection goes out.

      Parent is talking about a school, not a bank.If their internet goes out, then so what. The students can still get to learning. Most places really don't need the uptime they say they do.

    15. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by max99ted · · Score: 1

      Thank God we have 2 connections from different providers!!

      --

      Please stop APK.. you're only hurting yourself.

    16. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by zerofoo · · Score: 1

      I've worked in regulated high-security industries (finance and medical). I've seen small to midsize shops with TERRIBLE security practices that did not have the necessary security staff onsite to keep their systems secure.

      These small to midsize companies would absolutely benefit from the security groups at larger outsourced firms. Frankly, after seeing the credit union/community banking IT industry from the inside - I can say for certain the big service providers are way more proactive about securing their systems.

      Are all cloud providers this good? Probably not. This is simply a resource issue. Many cloud providers have dedicated security teams auditing their systems/infrastructure. Almost no small to midsize company has this ability. Using a good cloud provider will give them a piece of that security team.

    17. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thank God we have 2 connections from different providers!!

      "It's okay, the data is mirrored across the street in WTC 1!"
      *boom* "Fuck."

    18. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by antdude · · Score: 1

      What about power outages? :P

      --
      Ant(Dude) @ Quality Foraged Links (AQFL.net) & The Ant Farm (antfarm.ma.cx / antfarm.home.dhs.org).
    19. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We don't make our own water or power - why should we try to build all of our IT?

      Funny you say that. Many large buildings where I live do exactly that - they formed a consortium and it's much cheaper than the city utility.

    20. Re:IT as a utility - we're already there. by jwhitener · · Score: 1

      Having several different routes out to the internet is way cheaper than a server farm.

      That said, the ease and prevalence of virtualized server farm environments make the cloud a lot less appealing to sys admins now. They push a button and a 'server' is born. It doesn't cost the organization anything, because we already pay for site wide licenses for most things like the OS, database, etc..

      We may move some of our test/dev servers to something like Amazon. It would be nice as a dev to be able to create a new server instantly from a template, and not have to put a ticket in to our sys admins. But even then, virtualbox or the like works well enough for bringing servers up/down as needed for testing.

  16. It's over.... by beheaderaswp · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I can see the writing on the wall, from the perspective of having my first IT job in 1983... It's over.

    No one should really seek to enter a non development position in IT. Because it is being snuffed out by "big computing cloud services" and the "appliancezation" of IT infrastructure. There will always be some high end jobs around. But the numbers (and the pay) are shrinking- fast.

    So pack it up kiddies. Almost 30 years of booming industry will be evaporating in 5 to 7 years.

    It is truly time to find something else to do.

    --
    Another consultant who stuck it out.

    "We are the Priests, of the Temples of Syrinx..."
    1. Re:It's over.... by Drethon · · Score: 2

      The same way code generation was/is going to eliminate software development? Even with code generation tools, we still need people with design mentality as that is where most of the work is, not in the implementation.

    2. Re:It's over.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Who do you think will be building, maintaining, and supporting all those cloud solutions? A: the same people that were doing it in-house before the cloud. IT wont shrink. More phone support might be necessary. More mid and high-level networking people definitely. All the cloud has done for IT careers is change where the same work ill be done.

    3. Re:It's over.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I hear ya bro,

      It's changed and not in a good way, I was OK with the underlying changes in IT, new tools new methods, new things, but the job is so much less rewarding now. I wish I owned a corp that made oven mits, then I would do that work myself and pat myself on the back.

    4. Re:It's over.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Code generation is being farmed out to Indian development companies where they have thousands upon thousands of coders on tap. The code that comes back is crap, but beaten into shape. The big US financial corporations have years of this under the belt now. Take those c/cards out of your wallet. I can guarantee they're using code from this offshore development process. Many western world developers are going to find the same situation rippling down to the smaller IT shops an in-house dev teams once the CIOs catch wind on saving development costs, regardless of the final quality.

    5. Re: It's over.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, but you will still need less manpower, because centralizing all those services under one big provider means you need a small fraction of the workforce you used to need for all those fragmented realities. And this smaller workforce will be highly specialized and very qualified. Two-bits IT chumps (those who love to bash the Cloud knowing it means the end of their trade) won't find a place there. The IT of the future is going to be leaner and meaner. Too bad for you.

    6. Re:It's over.... by cfalcon · · Score: 2

      The push to centralize is usually driven by analysts who expect cost savings. But there's two other things that follow. The first is, if it becomes, even for a little bit, "expected" to run to a cloud, then you'll see a bunch of clouds forming to run to, each with some angle on why you should use THEM... and those clouds will themselves want IT ppl. The second is, there's downsides to centralization, and those downsides will always be there. Centralized places are a security risk because you can stack data in a place quicker than you can stack security, they are a connection risk because they rely on a lot of physical connections that your business would not natively care about ("Protesters across the country from you..." goes from "discuss with friends" to "now is your problem"), and they are a financial risk because they will gate access to your applications and switching from one cloud to another cloud will become as hard as required (serving the interests of the cloud providers, not yours), and they are a future risk because once something becomes a central repository in whatever way, it invites the government to start having meetings. Should these guys be allowed to do this based on their ability to market and provide services.... or does there maybe oughtta be a law?

      I just don't see the total gloom and doom.

    7. Re:It's over.... by Drethon · · Score: 1

      My job for quite a while has been taking the code that came back from overseas and putting in a state that does the company any good. I think we spend more time reworking it than we would if we had written it in the first place.

    8. Re:It's over.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I work 2 jobs, by day I am an enterprise nutjob and by night I fix residential issues. At least 1 of those will be around in 5-7years.

  17. Helpdesk and Inevitable by DrRiAdGeOrN · · Score: 1

    Most on prem IT will be a glorified helpdesk unless you have some other overriding cost or the size to keep it in-house, its been happening for awhile in bits and drabs. Most of the proposals I've been working on deal with some aspect of the Cloud, or pushing data to it. Just like how the Security Assessment Process is moving to to Continuous Monitoring. Where is the infrastructure/hosting? In the cloud of course. Costs dictate this.

  18. I forgot one more - cloud based phone system. by zerofoo · · Score: 1

    Telephones - we pushed that out as well. Gone are the expensive PITA PBX systems. Now we drop an IP phone into a classroom or on a desk - a few mouse clicks and we're done.

    1. Re:I forgot one more - cloud based phone system. by Psychotria · · Score: 1

      Yeah, I guess the idiots in the suits want to offload infrastructure and employees to third parties. But most of all they probably do a SWOT analysis and decide that they can offload the risk to the third party. It's just a pity that this risk mitigation is impotent because cloud providers (well, every that I've seen) pretty much make sure that their liability is as close to 0% as possible. "Cloud services" are just something that's old, proven crap, and wrapped up in cotton wool to make it all cutesy, fluffy and attractive. It's still a piece of pooh though no matter how much the guys offering the service like to shape it an wrap it up to look pretty. It reminds me of the scene from the movie "Ghost" where there is a piece of clay on a potter wheel, but instead of clay it's pooh and the velocity of the wheel causes the pooh to explode.

  19. Disturbing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I disagree with many of the precepts of the cloud and these types of articles. From a technical aspect, the cloud is simply incapable of delivering much of what traditional IT infrastructure delivers in house. I keep thinking or hoping that my very real contentions with cloudy services will be illustrated by outages, security breaches, latency, lack of integration... But, even when large incidents do occur, which I admit is rare, people don;t seem to mind at all. The drum beat continues and people continue to migrate to the cloud.

    The thing is that no matter how I feel about it, there can be no denying that there is a groundswell movement to the cloud. It is happening yesterday, today and tomorrow. It is happening, the media is proselytizing it, the vendors are building it and the traditional vendors are either dying or shifting to cloud only products. The file server chugging away in the dusty closet of most small businesses is almost completely gone, already. It's happening for the wrong reasons and I still think I'll be prove correct. One day...

    But, the thing I find really disturbing is the Slashdot crowd. The technology elite that have historically blazed the trails in IT are all here in the echo chamber denying that it's happening, that its going to happen. They're sticking their fingers in their ears an posting lalalalalalalalalalal. I want to agree with these people, but I can't. The cloud thing is fully underway. I'd estimate that it's 50% or more of the way there, right now. Denying it is ridiculous, but people aren't presenting a cogent argument against it.

    In 5 years it is likely that the world will be mostly cloud. I think it will also be the beginning of the revolution, back to the old way. But, that is to be seen. For now, you eoither need to realize that it is happening or present a public and cogent argument against it. Lalalalalala isn't convincing anyone of anything other than that your position needs to be eliminated.

    1. Re:Disturbing by Anon-Admin · · Score: 5, Informative

      It's not that we are denying it. It's that we have seen it before.

      Windows NT was going to eliminate the need for corporate IT. It is so simple that the secretary can manage the system. (Yes, Microsoft sales used that as a selling point)

      Central server management was going to eliminate corporate IT. It would be so simple you just have to hire a person to push a button and the problem is fixed.

      Self Healing systems are going to eliminate the need for Corporate IT. The systems will detect an issue and heal without the need for IT personnel.

      Outsourcing to India will eliminate the need for Corporate IT. You outsource all your systems and management to a data center and share the cost of the infrastructure while getting the best of the best to work on it.

      Now, Clouds are going to eliminate the need for Corporate IT.

      History shows that each has been wrong. Dont misunderstand, each did some small part of what they claimed but over time it all becomes more expensive and less productive.

      Clouds are no different!

    2. Re:Disturbing by Culture20 · · Score: 1

      From a technical aspect, the cloud is simply incapable of delivering much of what traditional IT infrastructure delivers in house. [...] but people aren't presenting a cogent argument against it

      You just did. And we keep pointing this out to non-IT folk, but they don't understand the cogent argument.

    3. Re:Disturbing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The problem is that you say they don't understand. But, they are saying; 'we've already done it and don't see any problem. Perhaps it's time for you to STFU.'

      Dropbox is not a fucking file server and neither is a NAS. Yet, how many businesses have already successfully eliminated their file servers with Dropbox-ish implementations that harken back to peer-to-peer workgroups? Lots! They'll be eliminating HTTP with something like NetBUI next. Please kill me!

      Accessing spreadsheets from smartphones is not productive and it is NOT secure. But it's happening more and more every day. Today's college student is tomorrow's exec and they use smartphones and cloudy services almost exclusively. Only clueless old people use PCs and desktop spreadsheets.

      It may be a mistake, like I claim, but so far they're "broken" method is working and there's not much I can argue about that. Yesterday and today's IT workers can't wait out what I suspect will be a 10 or more year cycle back to where we were with in house IT and datacenters. But the posts under this article all seem to believe that if they ignore it, it won't happen.

      It IS happening. The rug is half way out from under your feet.

    4. Re:Disturbing by Culture20 · · Score: 1

      so far their "broken" method is working and there's not much I can argue about that

      It's only working in the same way that a cartoon bridge built out of haphazard boards and nails works. The rug may be halfway out from under my feet, but they've already walked off the cliff. They'll be fine until they look down and notice the bridge has collapsed.

  20. more like software IMO by ILongForDarkness · · Score: 1

    More geographically concentrated. At least it has been my experience for the jobs I look for in software development about 80-90% of jobs are in major cities. You can find a job pretty much everywhere but the big companies hiring dozens of developers at a time overwhelm the one or two positions smaller companies in smaller communities are hiring. You switch jobs you either find another job in the big city you are in or you move 1hr + away (I'm from Canada: huge country, vastly distributed major cities). I think IT is going to become more like that too. You'll still need the low level support in house but the large number of jobs will be concentrated into areas with huge datacentres. In this case likely more rural locations because of cheap power, colder climate, cheap land etc.

  21. End of line by RubberDogBone · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Got laid off yesterday from an IT job I'd had for almost 15 years. Small company so I did a lot of things, from hardware to software to physical security, to sweeping the floors to to taking boxes of mail to the post office at midnight. If it needed to be done, I was the guy to get,

    So now this middle-aged man is suddenly out of work and looking at an IT field that is already vastly different than it was even five years ago much less fifteen. I don't have a clue what I am going to do. What I know how to do is of rapidly decreasing value and/or there are kids who will do it cheaper.

    I have no idea what I am going to do. Savings and severance will carry for a while but I've got to make a pivot to do something entirely different which pays well. My job may be gone but naturally the bills aren't.

    --
    Sig for hire.
    1. Re:End of line by pstorry · · Score: 5, Informative

      Having been in the job market myself recently, here's a few pointers...

      Skills are good, accomplishments are better. The skills are usually just there to get you past the filter - once your resume is being read (not skimmed) by a human, the accomplishments are what will matter.

      In the current market, integration and automation are the kings. If you think it can be done in the cloud, then assume it is being done in the cloud - and forget doing that as a job. The very best case will be that you integrate with it.

      If you work in Windows environments, you need to brush up on PowerShell. If you work in *NIX, then you'd think bash/python/perl should be your focus - but I'd suggest you get familiar with puppet/chef etc., because I didn't see a single job that required *NIX skills that didn't also require or express an interest in using a puppet-like system to automate configurations.

      There are some migration jobs out there - migrating users to O365 etc. Those jobs will pay bills for the next couple of years, but will dry up for obvious reasons. Feel free to take one in the short term, but keep looking for something else in the background if you do.

      Otherwise, throw your skills into some search engines and see what happens.

      Oh, and good luck. I hope you find a decent job...

    2. Re:End of line by monkeyxpress · · Score: 1

      Feel for you. If you were doing lots of office admin stuff anyway, have you considered if you could get into an office manager role? There is always demand for versatile people who can act as the glue to keep an office running, and if you can also bring IT skills that just makes you more employable. I think tech people can sometimes become so fixated on hard skill roles that they don't value the soft skills they might have developed along the way.

      One thing I have learnt from all my BA friends who now work in senior admin and marketing jobs, is you just have to be confident. Most people don't have a clear concept of what each role really means in today's modern economy, and they are mostly looking for versatile people who are a good cultural fit - that likeable guy who you throw a problem at and he just goes and solves it for you. If you come across as that person, which it sounds like part of what you were doing, then you'll fit perfectly into the new economy.

    3. Re:End of line by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Wish I had points to mod this up. I sincerely wish you the best. You might be able to bridge the gaps by finding a consulting gig.

      This is exactly what I'm trying to avoid. I've been in IT for nearly 20 years now... when I started out in the late 90s, it actually felt possible to "know everything" and flying by the seat of your pants was just how things got done. I don't even think I'd heard the term "best practice" until 2002. If you were good at what you did, you could run on instinct. It was, I daresay, fun back then. Now everything is so regimented and governed...

      Over the years I've moved around a bit, and done everything from helpdesk to system admin to IT manager to consultant and again to sysadmin. I got very comfortable in my role as IT manager (at a construction company that didn't really understand the role or value of IT), since I was pretty much a one-man-show for almost 8 years... but when they allowed me to hire a junior admin to handle some of the day-to-day stuff, all they saw was a young kid enthusiastically doing the grunt work for less than half what they used to pay me to do it. Never mind all the complex project work I was doing, never mind the vendor and client relationships I'd built, forget that I'd essentially built the entire infrastructure from the ground up... I was suddenly "redundant" and got RIF'ed. Out on my ass and replaced by a kid who wasn't even old enough to drink. Hopefully he's been able to do well. He was a good kid and I bear him no grudges. Sucked for me though.

      From there I went into consulting, thinking it would be a good place to pick up some of the skills that were growing in importance, and get my hands on some of the tech that passed me by because the company I'd been at for the last 8 years preferred the "bubblegum and paperclips" methodology to spending money on IT. I was hired into a senior role due to my years in the field, and did manage to learn a few new tricks, but I felt like a dinosaur next to these twenty-somethings who were genuinely excited about tech and were already schooled on stuff that I needed to try and catch up on. My many years of experience was less applicable than their months' worth.

      Part of it is a passion problem... I'm 40, and have all the requisite grown-up worries that come with marriage, home ownership, kids, divorce, remarriage, home ownership take 2, etc., etc., etc... when I'm lucky enough to have a little spare time for myself, I sure as hell am not going to use it to read about anything IT-related or build labs in my basement. Information Technology is what I do, not what I am. However, many younger guys and gals who are starry-eyed and excited about their futures have genuine passion for filling their minds with tech, and are not burdened by years or decades of "deprecated" knowledge that seems to get in the way of learning new things. They're also not burned out by years of being the scapegoat when things break and being invisible when things work. And they're cheaper.

      Tribal knowledge has some value in IT, but not as much as in other fields. Eventually that mainframe is going to die, be replaced with some shitty Wintel solution, and knowing your way around an AS/400 isn't really worth anything anymore. Age is a liability, and experience is like being a musician... you might be a maestro, but if you're playing an older style of music as opposed to keeping up with trends, your audience is going to dwindle until you can't find gigs anymore.

      I'm hoping to have an epiphany one day soon and figure out what I want to do next... because I don't want to do this any longer than I have to.

    4. Re:End of line by EdwardFurlong · · Score: 1
      I agree with the part of grown up issues. I work with some single 20's people living with their relatives, they have all sorts of time to tinker like I used to. For me it's errands, chores, picking kids up, and so on. When I take a class for school I am just trying to get the work done, and I really do not even have the time for that.

      I do not think all knowledge is obsolete, I think I have picked up enough functional knowledge that I do better than younger people with some new tech.

    5. Re:End of line by blue9steel · · Score: 1

      Don't panic, there are still plenty of small and medium size companies that need an in house generalist.

    6. Re:End of line by dougg76 · · Score: 1

      Not really. I think a lot of them are going to MSPs or the sort.

      --
      I laugh at inappropriate times.
    7. Re:End of line by h4ck7h3p14n37 · · Score: 1

      Sue for age discrimination. They'll probably settle :)

    8. Re:End of line by antdude · · Score: 1

      Same here back in January when I was an employee for 12.83333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333... years. :( The best way to get hired is to connect with people you worked with. I got lucky with a former VP who works for another big company. Even though it is a short contract work, it is better than nothing and I get to work from home 100%!

      --
      Ant(Dude) @ Quality Foraged Links (AQFL.net) & The Ant Farm (antfarm.ma.cx / antfarm.home.dhs.org).
    9. Re:End of line by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not really. I think a lot of them are going to MSPs or the sort.

      Yup. I used to work at an MSP. A fairly high number of our clients brought us in to replace their in-house IT generalist.

      The MSP market is growing pretty quickly. It's generally a better deal for the client, and I've found most low-level IT generalists we replaced had it coming. For the majority of new clients, I'd say: 1) nothing was documented, 2) backups were rare, 3) test restores NEVER happened, 4) core infrastructure (networking and storage) were severely misconfigured.

      Of course with what I know now, I think I could automate most of what MSPs do and really eat their lunch. I'm sure someone will get around it sooner or later.

    10. Re:End of line by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      one word: data science... well... two words. also, big data. big data data science... put those on resume, and ask for 2x as much money than anyone is offering.

    11. Re:End of line by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you're a jack of all trades, you've worked with business, IT, developers, project managers. You're doing DevOps - you just don't know it. Learn Chef (pretty straightforward), build out your scripting skills. Look for positions advertising DevOps - it's the buzzword of choice for sysadmin generalists. I didn't know I was doing DevOps for the last 15 or so years, but it turns out that's what they call me now.

  22. IT != SA by CountZer0 · · Score: 2

    Information Technology covers an incredibly wide range of careers, only a small portion of which are system/network administration related. Yes, in some organizations, the "cloud" may reduce the need for traditional SAs, but it is simply the latest in a long-term trend of reduction in force for that sector.

    Automation has already decimated the SA workforce. Long gone are the days when companies needed armies of SAs to maintain datacenters of servers. The datacenters are still there, but are being maintained by much smaller teams of SAs using automation rather than manpower. Many large corporations who haven't (and won't) embrace the cloud, have already gotten rid of their SA staff, relying instead on vendors like HP to provide both hardware and SA level support as a bundled package. There are still SAs, of course, but they increasingly work for one of the main vendors, rather than being distributed throughout many corporations.

    1. Re:IT != SA by Sir_Eptishous · · Score: 1

      Mod points bro.
      Yours is the best post in here.

      I'm a SA, and I agree totally with your analysis.

      --
      We play the game with the bravery of being out of range
  23. IT careers will evolve, not die off completely. by dablow · · Score: 1

    Although lots of IT services lend themselves well to cloud solutions, not all do.

    The job will evolve to take advantage of the new developments in tech, like it always has. Like how to this day, most companies that I worked for still have phone systems, because frankly it's cheaper than having a phone line for each and every employee.

    Also going cloud still requires you to have a local LAN and somebody to manage it. And firewall. And ISP. This requirement is going nowhere anytime soon.

    What will vanish is (and I would argue has already vanished) is small companies (50 or less) having to have a full time IT guy to manage their stuff. But this is not cost free, as I used to see a lot of these companies during my consulting days falling into complete chaos and dissaray because cloud providers don't usually manage your workstations or make sure your employees are following the processes and business practices your company relies on. Some went back to having their own in-house IT because of it.

    A huge chunk of sys admins will be absorbed into cloud providers. And some positions will also be eliminated. This is to be expected.

    Biggest issue we face in the IT industry (IMHO of course) is more that companies like Google, Apple, M$ and others pressuring universities and colleges to expand their CS/IT programs and issue a related diploma to people who just look at the curriculum. They also keep spreading the propaganda that it is a hot industry (drawing in suckers) and keep pressuring the government to allow in more H1Bs (aka digital slave labor) all to drive down IT salary costs.

    1. Re:IT careers will evolve, not die off completely. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You'd be wrong. At the multinational I work for, the local switch management, routers, firewall, internet connectivity is all out sourced to another multinational but an IT company.
      Oh we still have IT guys on site sure. Users need local support, laptops need replacing, and so on.
      But they don't look after the network. Typically they get a call that someone is wrong or about to go wrong before it happens.

      But that level of support is just as available to SME's & mom&poop too.

    2. Re:IT careers will evolve, not die off completely. by dablow · · Score: 1

      How am I wrong? You say it in your own words "At the mutlinational I work for, the local switch .....".

      All I said is that infrastructure does not go away, I said nothing about it being managed in-house or outsourced. The point was that even in an all-cloud environment, you still need to keep a good chunk of infrastructure in place, and pay somebody to manage it.

      In my experience, when the environment is small (50 computers and less), it is best to outsource as that kind of environment is nothing complicated to setup and manage (I am talking about a standard setup for emails, file server, networked printers and internet).

      At 51-200, it can go either way. It really depends how complex your environment is, if you have remote offices (generally that size is a no). I would says it all depends how tolerant your business is to downtime (yes I know nobody is but realistically some companies depend on information systems way more than others) and how overloaded the person will be making interface with the 3rd party company is with his actual work. It can go either way, but generally speaking the rule of thumb is 3rd party is cheaper, in-house you have more quality control.

      200+: I would recommend in most cases it is best to have the expertise in house, or at the very least 1 person who's primary task is to manage and oversee their IT infrastructure while outsourcing the actual work to 3rd parties. Remember the goal of any 3rd party solutions provider is to maximize $$$$$ and not you. So they will often times try to sell you solutions your do not need, or solutions offered by their "partners" which is not always the best/cheaper option.

      In any case, the Cloud is not the final solution for IT that the marketers are making out to be.

  24. So who does it in the "cloud" by guruevi · · Score: 2

    Someone has to assemble these computers and repair them, replace the hard drives etc.

    With cloud you're paying overhead and profits on all of the things your IT guy has to do anyway. Your virtual host still needs hard drives and expansions and software updates. Swapping a hard drive once in a while is not a big deal.

    Cloud is great if you only need very small quantities of something, perhaps for testing or a resource you only use once in a while. If your core business is dependent on it, unless you have a small company that can't afford a full time IT guy, you pretty much can host, colocate or rent your own stuff cheaper than an entire cloud stack.

    --
    Custom electronics and digital signage for your business: www.evcircuits.com
  25. Re: And there will be no mainframes or COBOL eithe by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    It won't evaporate. Back in the '70s lines were slow (1200 bps when really lucky) and mainframes were slow. Minicomputers and later personal computers were cheaper and performed better. Now the trend has inverted: lines are fast and big irons are way better than anything you can buy at reasonable prices. Computing is now a service. So no, sorry for you, this is the way it will play out. It only makes sense. You don't have your own power station, do you? And you won't have any internal IT department. And good riddance!

  26. Similar to what I recently experienced by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I recently transitioned from an older established company to a startup.

    former employer / older company:
    rarely trust outside services unless it's something super complex or necessary
    test backup strategy regularly
    encrypt everything

    new employer / startup:
    has the mentality that you trust 3rd party services and cloud providers above your own ability to code
    has never tested backup strategy
    have an issue? submit a ticket and wait

    The reason the startup prefers using cloud and 3rd party services has nothing to do with quality - It's all about avoiding liability.

  27. Slogging Hardware is 10% by avandesande · · Score: 1

    The rest of the time you are configuring applications, setting permissions and troubleshooting. Is your cloud provider going to be doing all this for you?

    --
    love is just extroverted narcissism
    1. Re:Slogging Hardware is 10% by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It'll be outsourced to companies that do it. I've been making monies at it for years now on the side on contract for a couple large Fortune 100's. They don't maintain IT staff on site in their franchise branches. They do what I said above for their servers, workstations, and custom wares they run on it.

  28. Timesharing by naris · · Score: 2

    Back in the day (60s,70s,80s) "The Cloud" was called "Timesharing" on Mainframes. "The cloud" does not eliminate infrastructure, it just moves it to another company that you pay fees to. There will always be IT pros "pulling all-nighters, swapping in hard drives or upgrading systems", but they will be working for the cloud hosting companies (and probably be offshore). Also, chances are that companies with stable infrastructure needs that don't expand and contract all that much (which is most companies) would of saved money overall if they owned their own equipment instead of renting capacity from a cloud company. After all, the cloud company has to pay for all the same things *and* make a profit (often a very substantial profit), which will be reflected in their fees.

    1. Re:Timesharing by DaMattster · · Score: 1

      Back in the day (60s,70s,80s) "The Cloud" was called "Timesharing" on Mainframes. "The cloud" does not eliminate infrastructure, it just moves it to another company that you pay fees to. There will always be IT pros "pulling all-nighters, swapping in hard drives or upgrading systems", but they will be working for the cloud hosting companies (and probably be offshore). Also, chances are that companies with stable infrastructure needs that don't expand and contract all that much (which is most companies) would of saved money overall if they owned their own equipment instead of renting capacity from a cloud company. After all, the cloud company has to pay for all the same things *and* make a profit (often a very substantial profit), which will be reflected in their fees.

      Maybe one day the pendulum will swing back to hardware ownership but change is a slow rolling boulder. Cloud computing has been set in motion for some time now and I'm seeing more and more job descriptions that are asking for experience with Azure, AWS, and others. The IT pros pulling all nighters are now likely to work in a data center and there are going to be far fewer staffing needs.

    2. Re:Timesharing by dave420 · · Score: 1

      Timesharing is/was nothing like the cloud. Yes, both involve connecting to remote computers to perform tasks, but that's where the similarities end.

  29. Cloud and Jobs by DaMattster · · Score: 1

    Undoubtably, the cloud has already started to reduce the number of server and storage engineer jobs out there. I'm already starting to see the handwriting on the wall and I'm thinking it might be time to retrain as a network administrator/engineer. With services going to the cloud, the role of the network engineer is only going to become more and more important and I'm just a server guy. Soon, I'll be handing out happy stickers at Walmart.

    1. Re:Cloud and Jobs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...and your jobs as a network engineer is going to stay permanent...how ? If AWS + Azure + GAE can create a network subsystem for you, how is your job more secure? Or if one to deploy Docker on flannel or weave or socketplane without your help, how is your job more secure?

    2. Re:Cloud and Jobs by dablow · · Score: 1

      BTW, most cloud providers do not actually manage the windows/linux/etc. server.

      They just make sure the vm is running, their network is up, their internet is up and it ends there.

      It's extra if you want them to manage servers, manage accounts etc.....

      So server admins are not necessarily dying off.....They are being consolidated into the data centers in most cases (the ones who offer the service). Or the job is outsourced to India.

      Most new software that is coming is adopting the SaaS model, so you do not need to run your own Windows/linux box to use it. Short term it does decrease costs, long term I believe it will end up costing an order of magnitude more than had you hosted the solution yourself.

  30. What is an IT career? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    With the mass outsourcing and H1B visas being issued, IT jobs won't exist in 5 years.

    At least for US Citizens.

  31. Everything old is new again by ErichTheRed · · Score: 1

    The cloud as it is today is just a much more flexible version of colocation. The problems don't disappear, they're just moved around. Hardware management is just one piece of the puzzle -- the rest is getting the jumble of stuff working and keeping it running. The bigger challenges are getting the provider to care when something does go awry, and controlling costs which can balloon unexpectedly. Unfortunately, the MBAs are in control, and the cloud vendors are currently promising that all these problems disappear. Worse, naysayers appear like they're protecting their jobs to the average person from the business side, so any concerns are dismissed out of hand.

    Either way, cloud or no cloud, what I see happening is the decline of traditional data center jobs and the rise of integration experts. I wear lots of hats - I'm in systems integration and so I have to know a little bit about everything; my specialty is end user systems. Just like coders who can only write for the web framework they learned in coder bootcamp, IT people who know only their little corner of the environment are going to have a tougher time finding work. Previously, you could have a very lucrative string of contract work just being an expert-level EMC administrator or Cisco network guy. I know someone who is a savant-level genius on Windows group policy, of all things. There was (and still is, for now) so much proprietary knowledge in just one of these little subfields that a full career could be built out of it. Is software-defined networking or storage just a buzzword? You might think that, but cloud providers and even on-premises equipment vendors are embracing it. I know a few Cisco engineers -- some are networking geniuses and will thrive in any environment, and frankly, some of them know the Cisco stuff and that's pretty much it.

    Career-wise, I see a lot more turbulence as release cycles keep getting shrunk down, SaaS starts taking over completely, etc. Companies have been doing everything in their power to promote the "gig economy", cheered on by fans of Uber and others. This has led to a drop in the number of full time IT employees, so increasingly, people have had to resort to stringing contracts together to make a "career." My secret so far has been to be the "make it work" guy, knowing enough about the end to end system to know where a problem lies. Even if I don't know how to fix that piece, I can find who does and talk intelligently to them about it. All I know is this -- even if it's not totally stable, as long as it pays enough, I would much rather have a job where I'm constantly learning new things than a report-pusher job. Most people who are suited for IT work are like this. I'm not a 23-year-old newbie either, who will happily work 80 hour weeks because they don't know any better. In fact, being older has its advantages. I've worked very hard on long-term projects only to have them canned for stupid reasons. It sucks but as long as you acquired a new skill along the way, and can adapt, that makes it better.

  32. Re: And there will be no mainframes or COBOL eithe by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And you won't have any internal IT department. And good riddance!

    What happened sysadmin tell you your not allowed to watch netflix anymore?

  33. The cloud only works if everything is the same by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I currently admin around 500 servers for a large company. Of these servers there are maybe 10 groupings of 5 that are similar, otherwise they are totally different. Different products, different solutions for different departments. Am I to believe that I will be replaced by 460 different cloud services? They will need me just to keep it straight!

  34. Cloud Shmoud by sycodon · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "The Cloud" is a buzzword created to fool executives into paying for Other People's servers. Executives see it as some magical technology that is fool proof and infallible.

    The term should be eradicated, preferably with fire.

    --
    When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
  35. You know a it will replace IT when... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...most of the comments are IT people trying to convince other IT people that their jobs are safe/worth it/etc. Nice echo chamber you got here guys.

    The cloud is better, faster, cheaper, deal with it.

    Maybe recycle yourself into making private clouds à la OpenStack?

  36. Not again. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Same thing was said 5 years ago. I still have my job. Keep trying though.

  37. Career Development vs Job Security by ranton · · Score: 1

    Career Is But A Quait Concept Now

    Using the word Career instead of Job is more important than ever, IMHO. In past decades career development was simply finding a good company and moving up the ranks. Having a career was basically just the same as having a job. In today's economy, managing your career is much more difficult. But because it is more difficult, it is far more rewarding for those who do it well (and more hazardous for those who do it poorly).

    Move up, move down, move laterally; it doesn't matter. Just keep moving

    This is very good advice for most people. The more you move, the more varied experiences you will have. It is far better to have 10 years of actual experience than 1 year of experience repeated 10 times. There will be rare times when you will be promoted within a company (my first move to Senior Developer along with a 30% raise was a promotion), but "promotions" will be far more rapid when switching companies.

    And the most important benefit of moving between jobs is gaining more varied experiences. You see more people doing things right, and more people doing things wrong. If you ask the right questions during interviews, you can ensure you will be part of more interesting projects, instead of being put on some sun-setting maintenance project.

    Once you gain enough experience, you get the job security back since you are so much more valuable than the workers who stayed at a company for 20 years.

    --
    -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
  38. Re: And there will be no mainframes or COBOL eithe by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    It won't evaporate. You don't have your own power station, do you? And you won't have any internal IT department. And good riddance!

    Bad example. Pretty much everyone here has a battery in a laptop that sits on a desk 99% of the time, and most of us have a UPS for our gear, so yeah, we do have our own power stations.

    As for internal IT support... You may not have a line item for an IT guy, but you are paying for it in hidden costs. Every hour an employee spends trying to figure something out on their own instead of asking a friendly, skilled IT guy who can solve it in two minutes is a 30x waste of resources.

  39. Or maybe... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Go work at a Cloud Service Provider...you know..since they'll HAVE all that pesky physical IT infrastructure...

  40. This thread is a feast for "cloud to butt" users! by cfalcon · · Score: 1

    As most of you are aware, there are important cloud based extensions in the popular web browsers. I'm speaking, of course, of the "Cloud To Butt" extensions, which replace all instances of the word "cloud" with the word "butt". This replacement is truly revolutionary, and it discriminates not- even the text "clout to butt" becomes "butt to butt"!

    There is a version for Chrome:
    https://chrome.google.com/webs...
    And the functionality is also on Firefox:
    https://addons.mozilla.org/en-...

    So here are some highlights from THIS thread:

    ...I think the other butt limiter is WAN connectivity...

    After all, the butt company has to pay for all the same things *and* make a profit (often a very substantial profit), ...
     
    ...Butts are going to eliminate the need for Corporate IT...

    A huge chunk of sys admins will be absorbed into butt providers.
     
    ...the butt is simply incapable of delivering...
     
    ...you pretty much can host, colocate or rent your own stuff cheaper than an entire butt stack...

    Many large corporations who haven't (and won't) embrace the butt...

    With services going to the butt, the role of the network engineer is only going to become more and more important...

    Butt is cheaper up front, but almost always more expensive in duration.

    And our winner...

    If you think it can be done in the butt, then assume it is being done in the butt- and forget doing that as a job.

  41. What could possibly go wrong? by MarkvW · · Score: 1

    Follow the herd. Store your data in somebody else's box. Trust encryption that you don't understand, and that is guaranteed to obsolete with the next big jump in computing technology.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    1. Re:What could possibly go wrong? by Baron_Yam · · Score: 1

      One thing I've learned in the business is that once a slick enough sales rep gets in the Director's ear, you're going to implement the tech regardless of whether or not it's a good idea.

      And you'll also catch heat from the users when it fails.

  42. Where have you been in the last 15-20 years? by luis_a_espinal · · Score: 1

    Wow. That is possibly the dumbest thing I have read on here. Keep moving, or you will get fired? Who is going to hire someone who keeps switching jobs constantly? I'm sure you will be modded to +5 Insightful though.

    Where have you been in the last 15-20 years? The IT/software industry moved towards a contractor-base system years ago, where layoffs are a common occurrence every 2-5 years, with up/down cycles lasting 5 to 10. Outside of SV, it is rare to find a perm opening, let alone a place where you can spend 10 years on the job uninterrupted.

    Nowadays, it is just contracting jobs. Even the health and DoD sectors (sectors I've worked with in addition to others) have been moving towards that modus operandi.

    That you act surprised like this tells me that you are either new to this shit or you are in a very special niche. Nothing wrong with the later if your niche is a highly technical one (otherwise you are just playing a "Dodo on an island" role completely unaware of changes around you - not a good place to be.)

  43. Networks are forever by ptsux · · Score: 1

    None of this shit works without a correctly configured, working network. In short order that network will have to transport ipv6 as well as legacy ipv4, and ipv4 will - indeed must - go away. There will be acres of physical network plant to organize, manage, upgrade & replace. Locally hosted apps will be niche apps, for those things which aren't in the cloud yet or that you don't want to put there, e.g. 911 systems, (air) traffic control, anything realtime that can't stand latency, and anything connected to a sick human being.

  44. Interest Piqued by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You've got my attention. Can you tell us how big your school is? Can you describe how much bandwidth you require and how you manage it and redundancy?

    A couple of hundred or thousand students and staff watching videos, reading lessons, streaming desktop office apps, running SIP trunks for internal and external calls, all sounds like a huge amount of bandwidth and dependency on internet reliability,

    Also, what are your VPNs for? If everything is already in the cloud, why do people VPN into your school?

  45. Re:This thread is a feast for "cloud to butt" user by pstorry · · Score: 1

    My comment about the cloud won an award from the cloud!
    I'm perversely proud that the cloud will have a permanent record of my cloud comment. You made my day, thank you for sharing your cloud to butt knowledge with us all. :-)

  46. Is this really a big problem anymore? by zerofoo · · Score: 1

    We have FIOS and Comcast cable connecting our locations. We haven't had a significant internet connectivity failure in years.

    If we did have a reliability problem with our network providers, we would account for that with redundant internet connections.

    This isn't the 90s anymore. Internet connectivity is pretty reliable - and many areas do have more than one choice of network provider.

  47. Funny....I worked for a bank too. by zerofoo · · Score: 1

    I was a network manager at a small community bank. We also had FIOS/DSL/Cable interconnecting our sites - and we had a channelized DS3 as a backup.

    Granted, we had almost all of our systems in-house, but many many of our competitors were "serviced" banks in that they had very few IT system in-house. Those companies also had redundant network connectivity.

    The cloud is simply a way to cost-share someone else's computer. Your network design should have reliability built in whether your IT is cloud based or in-house if your business requires high availability.

    Having a crappy internet connection has nothing to do with cloud VS in-house. Especially if your enterprise spans multiple locations.

  48. Re: And there will be no mainframes or COBOL eithe by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You can't differentiate between power generation and power storage? If you're an example of IT competence, I'm glad we're moving everything to the cloud and getting rid of you chumps.

  49. IT not needed, so long as you want nothing new by jd.schmidt · · Score: 1

    IT was never needed beyond the initial set up. Computer programs run just fine for years on end, computer hardware lasts much longer than most companies replacement cycles. You only need IT when you want new features or functionality. Problem is users want more of it then ever, as computing becomes cheaper, more and more will be demanded to do more things.

  50. Better question: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What will IT smell like in 5 years?

    Answer: body odour and stale curry.

  51. Re: And there will be no mainframes or COBOL eithe by undefinedreference · · Score: 1

    This is merely because hardware has been fairly stagnant for years now. Cycles are turning into a fungible commodity again and therefore hardware prices are being driven down. In the 1970s it was similar, but Moore's Law was devaluing it at a rapid pace, while network connections were still slow. Eventually the Big Iron that was managed by groups of highly trained people in clean rooms couldn't compete.

    However, you're deluded if you think fast and reliable lines are cheap. They're not. This is why anything involving large quantities of data is staying local... The easy stuff that was designed decades ago for those slow links are the only low-hanging fruit that have experienced a strong shift to outsourced service ("cloud") providers due to the fact that they do not depend on a big pipe. Email, documents, and spreadsheets are one thing; terabytes of data are completely different... "Cloud" services are only good for easy problems.

  52. What an IT Career Will Look Like 5 Years Out? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Do you want fries with that?

  53. The Risks of The Nebulous Cloud by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I've been in higher ed IT for over 20 years. We have our own data center but the all magical cloud is alluring to the business-y people because it seems to be cheaper. We've taken the bait on a few services. The more stuff that goes up into the cloud, the more important reliable high bandwidth network infrastructure becomes. All business comes to a halt if that service is interrupted. The biggest question we encounter is with the intellectual property of our researchers. These guys and the financial support behind them are absolutely paranoid about corporate or state-sponsored espionage (and rightfully so). We can audit our internal systems, but a third party sure isn't going to want to tell us they've been compromised since it's bad for business.

    The cloud services have a great bottom line appeal, but then when there are problems or support issues, we are at the mercy of that third party (and after the eager sales people make the deal, the support is less than stellar--at least lower in quality and expediency that we can provide in-house).

    One hidden cost that many on our campus did not anticipate was the cost of tightening up computer life cycling so that the system requirements stay in spec. While the average corporation usually has this built into their budgets, colleges and universities are experiencing budget crunches and cut corners. Divisions on our campus that life-cycle computers every 5-10 years find themselves in a pickle when their computers don't meet the requirements. Of course, we IT folks like getting rid of the older more troublesome hardware, but the unexpected (or conveniently postponed) cost of doing business for that business unit tends to be painful. I suspect we're not the only university to encounter this--especially with a mixed platform environment like ours.