Slashdot Mirror
Replacement of Writers Leads Gartner's Predictions (computerworld.com)
dcblogs writes: Gartner's near-future predictions include: Writers will be replaced. By 2018, 20% of all business content, one in five of the documents you read, will be authored by a machine. By 2018, 2 million employees will be required to wear health and fitness tracking devices as a condition of employment. This may seem Orwellian, but certain jobs require people to be fit, such as public safety workers. By 2020, smart agents will facilitate 40% of mobile interactions. This is based on the belief that the world is moving to a post-app era, where assistants such as Apple's Siri act as a type of universal interface.
Things will progress at roughly the rate they've been progressing. In 3 years, things will look basically the same. Some of these things may start to come true, or be in trial stages, mostly though it's nonsense.
Robobosses will not be a thing. Management as a discipline is not strongly defined. First you have to get executives to widely agree that there is a set method to manage appropriately, at which point you would be able to legitimately evaluate managers. If you've noticed we're nowhere near that happening, you'll realize it won't be automated within 3 years.
Smart agents show few signs of catching on. Surveys everywhere show Siri is barely being used and even those who use it give up on it frequently.
What they refer to as "smart machines" sound like little more than the automation of metric gathering.
I'm tired of reading these stories. Where's the flying cars? Personal space travel for all?
Most of the "amazing" technology we've gotten recently is just a refinement of things we've been working on for 30-40 years. Internet of things? Electric cars? Smart decision systems? It's all been around for decades.
Captcha: Marketed
Flawless AI in 5 years to drive those "intelligent" agents?
Yeah, right.
They've been predicting "hard" AI within 20 years for about 35 years now...
I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
They are so hilariously wrong so often you could build a successful career out of assuming they will be wrong about everything. A selection of their idiocies:
Bogtha Bogtha Bogtha