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Should Japan Restart More Nuclear Power Plants? (thebulletin.org)

Lasrick writes: Seth Baum, executive director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, writes in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists that Japan should restart more of its nuclear reactors (the Sendai nuclear plant was restarted in August). The reason is simple, writes Baum: "Japan is now building 45 new coal power plants, but if it turned its nuclear power plants back on... it could cut coal consumption in half. And coal poses more health and climate change dangers than nuclear power."

33 of 313 comments (clear)

  1. Honestly, Japan's screwed no matter what. by Chas · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Basically every option for them and their little fireball of an island chain are Bad Choices.

    Still, engineered and maintained properly, with no corner cutting, they'd be better served by nuclear.

    --


    Chas - The one, the only.
    THANK GOD!!!
    1. Re:Honestly, Japan's screwed no matter what. by sycodon · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Actually, they can still use that land. It's unsuitable for living on, growing food, etc, but with proper protection and safeguards it can be used for storage and other things that wouldn't be a good mix in populated areas.

      And they definitely should build more...using the knowledge they've gained as well as new technologies. Molten Salt comes to mind.

      Nuclear Energy is really still in the nascent stages due to it being stalled for the last sixty years.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    2. Re:Honestly, Japan's screwed no matter what. by WalksOnDirt · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Actually, they can still use that land. It's unsuitable for living on, growing food, etc

      Over 90% of the affected area is suitable for those uses right now. The radiation in those parts is less than that of Colorado. I don't see people leaving Colorado because of the radiation.

      --
      a,e,i,o,u and sometimes w and y (at be if of up cwm by)
    3. Re:Honestly, Japan's screwed no matter what. by Harlequin80 · · Score: 3, Informative

      They are 100% importers of their coal. However they have very good coal supply contracts with Australia which provide them with a cheap and reliable supply.

      The simple reason is that wind does not generate enough power. If they were to build out their entire wind potential they would have a max generating potential of 752gw. If we assumed favourable wind conditions you might get to 30% of that figure (that would make it one of the best performing in the world) so 225GW. Currently Japan has C250GW of installed generating capacity so there is basically no overhead if they went all wind and there would be a monumental capital cost to achieve it as 600GW is offshore.

      As for tidal there isn't currently a working production level tech that I am aware of. Hydro sits at around 6.6% of their electricity generation but it has been expensive, hence they are not building any more. And they have 18 geothermal plants currently but their contribution to the power grid is almost noise level.

    4. Re:Honestly, Japan's screwed no matter what. by AmiMoJo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      While it may be technically suitable there are many problems, not least "hot spots" where contamination levels are higher. Most people don't want to carry a dosimeter around all the time, or outfit their kids with one. Kids love to play on the ground and get dirty - and since a lot of the "clean up" was just replacing or turning the top layer of soil it isn't safe for them.

      There is also the problem of those communities having been broken up. A lot of people have left for good now, moving their lives elsewhere instead of waiting for the clean up to finish. Many of them died, either as a result of the evacuation or due to other causes. Infrastructure needs rebuilding and repairing after maintenance was abandoned for four years, and new facilities like healthcare centres, government services, schools etc. need to be established to replace the old ones that are now defunct.

      The other big issue is compensation. If people move back into their homes they will get less compensation, because they have demonstrated that their property is not worthless and they have not lost their ancestral burial plots etc. Since most of them think that their homes have a value close to 0 yen now the compensation negotiations need to be completed first.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
  2. Fukushima was WORTH IT by mrchaotica · · Score: 5, Insightful

    We only get worked up about nuclear disasters because they're so unusual. Coal is a disaster in its normal operation!

    --

    "[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz

    1. Re:Fukushima was WORTH IT by bloodhawk · · Score: 5, Insightful

      every coal fire plant is a disaster that is occurring every single day and are continuing to affect the human race in ways we still don't fully comprehend long after everyone here is dead.

    2. Re:Fukushima was WORTH IT by liquid_schwartz · · Score: 4, Informative
      While it's true that nuclear tends to have longer consequences for mistakes, sometimes coal disasters have long lived consequences too: Citation:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralia,_Pennsylvania

      Between direct deaths (ie people who die immediately in accidents) and indirect deaths (ie people who die of cancer or pollution) I think coal has more deaths than nuclear by quite a bit. Interestingly hydroelectric dominates for direct deaths as shown here:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_accidents

    3. Re:Fukushima was WORTH IT by mrchaotica · · Score: 5, Insightful

      First of all, I'll reiterate bloodhawk's point above, that coal has worse long-term impact than nuclear disasters too.

      Second, the main long-term impact of Chernobyl and Fukushima (beyond the lifetimes of the humans involved) is that Russia and Japan have ended up with some accidental mandatory wilderness conservation! From the perspective of every species that isn't humanity, they were probably a net positive.

      Look, Chernobyl and Fukushima sucked for their victims. I get that, and I'm not trying to minimize it. But abandoning nuclear because of things like that is like abandoning air travel ("the safest form of travel," they say) in favor of playing chicken on the highway because a plane crashes every once in a while. It's an emotional, irrational overreaction that just doesn't make any damn (statistical) sense.

      --

      "[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz

    4. Re:Fukushima was WORTH IT by thesupraman · · Score: 4, Informative

      You seem to forget that the US dropped NUCLEAR FUCKING BOMBS on two Japanese cities only 70 odd years ago, and both are thriving cities these days.

      What goes on for so long is the bs paranoia that is so deeply ingrained that people refuse to look at the scientific facts that low levels of radiation are not lethal, and in fact are quite common naturally.

      Or perhaps you suggest we should require people to block up all basements in bedrock due to the natural radon levels?
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radon

      Not to mention banning bananas
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_equivalent_dose

      People living in Ramsir, Iran of course must be dead by now, but somehow they have been surviving for centuries
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramsar,_Mazandaran

      But dont let actual facts get in the way of your cold war radiation terror..

    5. Re:Fukushima was WORTH IT by thesupraman · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I beg to differ, no it cannot.

      It would, for example, be pretty damn hard to get a nuclear power incident more incompetently managed and 'dirty' as Chernobyl, and I am pretty sure that the human race has not yet been wiped out by it (although the local wildlife population is devastatingly healthy thanks to less people around).

      Perhaps you would prefer a mountain of radioactive ash from coal plants?

    6. Re:Fukushima was WORTH IT by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 3, Informative

      I beg to differ, too: although the local wildlife population is devastatingly healthy thanks to less people around . This is thirty years after the catastrophe, nearly 40 even!
      The first ten years after the incident you only had misscariages there and deformed birthes.
      The animals living there now are not decendents of the survivors of the catastrophe, but animals that migrated over the last 20 years into that area.
      Depending where they set up their "base of living" they survived the immigration or died quite soon on problems with the radiation, e.g. mushrooms are contaminated enough that you get cancer for sure if you eat more than one or two dishes with them.
      Even in south Germany you still can not eat wild boar or mushrooms.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  3. Re:No. by Luthair · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Point a geiger counter at your smoke detector sometime, and maybe watch Pandora's Promise to educate yourself on the reality of nuclear power.

  4. Re:Rubbish.... by Mashiki · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Article fails to mention that Germany is also importing massive amounts of power from France, and that the price of electricity in germany is between 0.20 and 0.45c/kWh now from all those renewable sources.

    --
    Om, nomnomnom...
  5. Climate change vs. Nuclear accident by Roger+W+Moore · · Score: 3, Interesting

    And Japan lost the use of a LOT of land with one nuclear incident.

    ...and how much land will they lose if it turns out that burning all that coal causes the climate to warm and sea levels to rise significantly? Whatever they do there is a risk. Either you go with coal and hope the climatologists are wrong or you go with nuclear and hope the engineers have got their act together. Personally I would take the nuclear option since I would bet on skilled professionals being right rather than wrong but either way there is a risk.

    1. Re: Climate change vs. Nuclear accident by Chas · · Score: 4, Informative

      What? A nuclear powerplant is not a potential teraton explosion waiting to happen...

      Since there's nowhere near a teraton of water in the cooling system? No.

      Nuclear plant explosions have more in common with a bursting water heater than they do with a nuclear bomb.

      Now, don't get me wrong. A high pressure steam explosion is a nasty thing too. But it's NOT a nuclear explosion.

      --


      Chas - The one, the only.
      THANK GOD!!!
    2. Re:Climate change vs. Nuclear accident by Alypius · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Nope. It is physically impossible for a plant to detonate into a mushroom cloud. Chernobyl was horrific because the engineers deliberately disengaged the safeties and ramped up the power. There have been significant advances in inherently-safe nuclear plants, such as pebble bed and thorium reactors. There are also breeder reactors that effectively "recycle" used fuel. Because of this, I just can't take seriously anyone who doesn't include nuclear as part of a climate-change-related energy policy.

    3. Re:Climate change vs. Nuclear accident by umghhh · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Why include nuclear anywhere? The problem with waste disposal is not going away any time soon. Solve this (and insure the plants) and this becomes a serious option again. Of course you would have to consider where you build those things i.e. plants and disposal sites as well. Do it right and I do not think many people will object. This is only one side of the story. I think there is a serious issue with overpopulation already and we do not really notice because the processes involved have time scales significantly larger even than anything else humans are used to (i.e. > 30 seconds of serious pumping for instance). I'd say relax and enjoy the ride as long as we can. The hordes of refugees from polluted, flooded, deserted or lands that become unpleasant in other unpleasant ways will make our lives much more interesting rather soon.

  6. Re:Rubbish.... by fisted · · Score: 3, Informative

    Germany [..] replaced all their nuclear power plants

    Except they didn't.

  7. Re:No. by 0123456 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It CLICKS! And that's SCARY!

  8. Well... by EmeraldBot · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Speaking as someone who currently lives in Japan (for work, I'm not Japanese), I think they should. Japan has a ridiculous amount of people in a very small space - Tokyo has is only 75% as large as New York City, but has almost twice as many people. The amount of coal needed to provide enough electricity for them would absolutely pollute the area around them and render it inhabitable - and in a country where habitable land is so scarce, and with such a nice natural climate that attracts a huge amount of tourists, ruining it would not be a good idea. So long as they invest properly in their nuclear power plants and ensure they are well maintained and regulated, they have virtually no environmental impact, and they can provide absolutely insane amounts of power for a very low price. If they act cut the nuclear power like Germany did (which I think was an idiotic move, but I digress), they are going to have a very, very, very hard time supplying enough power for everyone, and if they do it in coal, that will be a disaster. I'll finish with a nice little graph: what do you think?

    --
    "Set a man a fire, he'll be warm for the rest of the night. Set a man afire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life."
  9. Re:No. by Solandri · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Samples collected from gutters around my office (Kanda, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo) already light up the Geiger counter, and the soles of shoes right after make nice images when placed on photographic film.

    Ah yes, Nuclear myth #3: All radiation is caused by nuclear power and nuclear bombs.

    Fact: Nearly everything in the world is naturally radioactive. You're horrified that that stuff around your office lights up Geiger counters, because you never pointed a Geiger counter at that stuff before the accident. Thus you are incorrectly attributing natural radiation to the accident. Your largest annual radiation dose actually comes from your own body. Potassium has a relatively common naturally occurring isotope (K40) which is radioactive, and your body needs potassium to survive (it's essential to how your nerves function). Your second largest dose comes from cosmic rays. Most of these are filtered out by the atmosphere, so in a twist of irony many of those who fled Japan by plane after the accident unwittingly exposed themselves to more radiation during their flight (planes fly above most of the atmosphere) than if they'd just stayed put in Japan.

    This myth is so prevalent and pernicious that we screen our nuclear plant workers with detectors which would be screaming if placed at the exit of a drugstore or supermarket. K40 is common enough that most of the false alarms from the "dirty bomb" detectors at our borders are caused by shipments of food which are high in potassium - bananas, avocados, cocoa, etc.

    Perhaps most damning with respect to TFA, burning coal releases radiation. Coal contains trace amounts of uranium. The uranium in coal actually contains more energy than the coal itself, but because people who believe this myth are staunchly opposed to nuclear power, they end up breathing in those minute traces of uranium released by burning coal instead. (Burning coal is also the current major contributor to mercury in our oceans which makes fish like tuna dangerous to consume. Historically the biggest contributor was mining, but that's been regulated enough that the primary mercury source is now coal pollution.)

  10. Re:No. by thesupraman · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Try a banana on your Geiger counter..

    And yes, I spend plenty of time in Tokyo myself, so I get to have an opinion...
    Mind you, as you are posting anonymous, I suspect you are actually an american scaremonger posting BS, but thats pretty common.

  11. Restart Isn't the Right Choice Either.... by Noble713 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I'm pro-nuclear (generally speaking). I live in Japan.

    I don't think turning on a bunch of outdated reactors that sit on one of the most earthquake and tsunami-prone areas of the world is a good idea.

    How about replacing the existing reactors with a smaller number of very modern Westinghouse AP1000s? A far better way to spend billions of dollars than the stupid 2020 Tokyo Olympics. I think this is an acceptable medium-range solution until someone demonstrates a commercial 1GW thorium plant.

  12. Re:Fukushima was NOT WORTH IT by Firethorn · · Score: 4, Informative

    Nuclear and Coal are as bad as each other and Nuclear is worse in ways we still don't fully comprehend.

    I'd argue that Coal is worse, and worse in ways that we still don't fully comprehend. We understand the problems with nuclear power pretty well, including that it kills fewer people per MWh than solar.

    Remember, most of the dangerous byproducts from a coal plant don't break down, and aren't all that well contained. Nuclear power waste is at least contained.

    --
    I don't read AC A human right
  13. Re:Fukushima was NOT WORTH IT by bloodhawk · · Score: 4, Informative

    every coal fire plant is a disaster that is occurring every single day and are continuing to affect the human race in ways we still don't fully comprehend long after everyone here is dead.

    You are arguing that having two problems is the solution, instead of getting rid of both problems. Nuclear and Coal are as bad as each other and Nuclear is worse in ways we still don't fully comprehend.

    No, I am arguing coal is a KNOWN far worse problem right here and now, we don't have to wait for an accident, it doesn't have some "chance" of being an issue. It has far reaching known issues and probably just as many unknown.

  14. Restoring trust in the system. by westlake · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The geek's technical and ecological arguments count for nothing if you have lost faith in those who were responsible for the safety of nuclear power both in private industry and in government.

  15. Re:Rubbish.... by Hognoxious · · Score: 5, Funny

    Japan should take the lead from Germany

    I think a cable reaching all the way to France would be very expensive, and I suspect the resistive losses would be prohibitive too.

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  16. Re:What's with this headline? by Maritz · · Score: 3, Insightful

    You don't have to cry conspiracy for everything, you know. Yeah maybe Fukushima is the cause and maybe it isn't. We'll see in time.

    --
    I do not want your cheap brainburning drugs. They are useless for work. And I am a working man today.
  17. Re:Fukushima was NOT WORTH IT by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    ok lets state this clearly for you. EVEN the cleanest most modern coal plant is thousands of times more polluting than a nuclear plant. This isn't questionable, or ifs or buts, the only scenario the two can be compared is in a nuclear disaster. 2% increase in coal will mean the deaths of 10's of thousands of people, it will be polluting millions and millions of tons of toxins into the environment and atmosphere. If instead of building those new cleaner coal plants they built modern nuclear with high levels of safety they would generate massive amounts of clean low risk power, they would save 10's if not 100's of thousands of lives over the lifetime of the plant and they would MASSIVELY cut emissions across the country.

  18. Re:What's with this headline? by Coren22 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Even including the two bombs used on Japan, nuclear has killed less people than any power generation technology around. Fear of nuclear is failure of math/science education, not something to proudly proclaim from the rooftops.

    --
    APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
  19. Re:What's with this headline? by ericloewe · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Quite simply, nuclear power makes complete sense to technically-inclined people who do not go along with shortsighted ignorant paranoia, which I expect represent a significant part of people here.

  20. Re:What's with this headline? by ericloewe · · Score: 3, Informative

    This is pretty much it.

    Coal? Greenhouse gases, soot, ash and lots of other fun things (Note: not fun at all. Very dangerous.). Also, said not-very-fun stuff is (in part) radioactive.

    Natural gas? Greenhouse gases. It's better, I guess, but it still screws us over. Efficiency might be better, than coal, too.

    Solar Thermal or PV? Sure, let's take advantage of it on structures and stuff. Using it on an industrial scale isn't quite practical, though, considering the massive areas required. Large scale thermal installations are also hazardous to birds. Doesn't work all the time, either.

    Wind? Wind can be unpredictable, and it's supposedly a very big hazard for birds.

    Nuclear? Complex, expensive designs that produce highly radioactive materials - however, they're confined and easily handled (compared to exhaust from a boiler or turbine) and just have to be stored away until they decay or new reactors can use them as fuel.

    Hydro? Apparently, pretty bad for local ecosystems, otherwise a good solution. Probably going to be necessary for large-scale storage whatever happens.