Patricia, Strongest Hurricane Ever Seen In Eastern Pacific, Strikes In Mexico

CNN reports that Hurricane Patricia has made landfall in Mexico; Patricia is notable for having the third-lowest barometer reading ever recorded, and as "the strongest hurricane ever observed in the eastern Pacific or Atlantic oceans." Slate points out that at one point, "satellite estimates of Patricia’s intensity broke the Dvorak scale, peaking at 8.3 on the 8.0 scale. ... In fact, Patricia is now very close to the theoretical maximum strength for a tropical cyclone on planet Earth." The Weather Channel is tracking the storm's path, and predicts "catastrophic damage ... along a narrow path as the eye slices into the interior of southwest Mexico Friday night." Here's a map from the National Weather Service showing Patricia's track as well as projected path.

Comments

Eye collapsed well before reaching shore

[JoeyRox]

As often happens with Pacific storms since ocean conditions for maintaining strength are rarely favorable near coastal areas in that part of the world. Winds were down over 50mph by the time it made landfall.

Re:Eye collapsed well before reaching shore

[jklovanc]

Winds were down over 50mph by the time it made landfall.

Fifty miles per hour seems like a lot until you realize that means winds are still up to 150mph.

Re:Eye collapsed well before reaching shore

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm not sure the ocean is to blame for the weakening. Patricia had a very compact inner core and a tiny eye. Strong hurricanes generally undergo eyewall replacement cycles, in which the inner eyewall contracts in and an outer eyewall takes over as the main eyewall. The NHC advisories emphasized the very compact inner core in the 11 AM EDT advisory. The 5 PM EDT advisory mentioned an outer wind maximum, which would be the outer eyewall. It sounds like Patricia was undergoing and eyewall replacement cycle as it made landfall in Mexico. Category 5 hurricanes rarely maintain their maximum intensity for very long. Eyewall replacement cycles typically result in the storm weakening while that takes place. Normally, cool waters associated with the California current (the cool northerly branch of the north Pacific gyre) do result in cool waters in the eastern Pacific, but I don't think that's the primary reason for Patricia weakening. I think an eyewall replacement cycle is primarily responsible for the weakening.

190 mph winds

[rmdingler]

It'll crush the ocean-front vacation homes of the wealthy,

and,

the only homes of the poor.

Re:How did it fit on a scale it broke?

[Anonymous Coward]

Dvorak is derived from sustained wind speed and pressure. The wind speeds are so high, and the pressures so low on this storm that they exceed the theoretical maximum (8.0) listed for Dvorak.

I assume they calculated it at 8.3 by extrapolating from the existing scale.

Re:How did it fit on a scale it broke?

[hawguy]

Does anyone understand the Dvorak scale well enough to comment on how this hurricane supposedly broke it and yet it can be accurately put on the scale as an 8.3?

And more importantly, what is it on the Qwerty scale, which is the one that most of us know?

"Third-lowest barometer reading ever recorded"

[Solandri]

That's not quite so exclusive as it sounds. There are a lot of storms with the same barometer reading

870mm - Typhoon Tip (1979)
875mm - Typhoon June (1975)
875mm - Typhoon Nora (1973)
877mm - Typhoon Ida (1958)
880mm - Typhoon Kit (1966)
880mm - Typhoon Rita (1978)
880mm - Typhoon Vanessa (1984)
880mm - Hurricane Patricia (2015)

The 1970s were a bad decade for storms in the West Pacific.

Re:Get used to it

[jklovanc]

a chaotic system will produce much larger storms than ever before.

I love it when people use phrases like "ever before" when they actually mean "in our brief recorded history".

This is a small fast storm

[trout007]

The hurricane force winds only extend about 25 miles which is way below the average of 100 miles. Katrina was around 125 miles. So while the peak winds here are fast it's a very small storm. Almost midway between a hurricane and tornado.

Re:How did it fit on a scale it broke?

[theskipper]

First, some background. Dvorak is a well-known blowhard tech pundit. His blowhardness is so great that meteorologists unanimously decided to adopt the scale to measure the strength of hurricanes.

To put this in perspective, imagine being in the same room with one Dvorak. Then imagine the same room filled with eight point three Dvoraks. That's how strong this hurricane is.

Re:How did it fit on a scale it broke?

[Qzukk]

Me? I'm just hoping that the windspeed stays below escape velocity!