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A Push To Ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty? (thebulletin.org)

Lasrick writes: Hugh Gusterson thinks a symposium sponsored by the U.S. Energy Department was the first sign that the Administration is readying a push to finally ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). "Conceding that the earlier drive to ratify the treaty in 1999 ended in a humiliating defeat for the Clinton Administration, [Secretary of State John Kerry] said that "the factors that led some senators to oppose the treaty have changed, so [senators'] choices should change too." The article goes into the technology that has developed over the last 15 years that make testing unnecessary.

44 of 67 comments (clear)

  1. Testing is unnecessary. by sims+2 · · Score: 3, Funny

    Sounds like something apple would say.

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  2. Missing credibility right now by khallow · · Score: 2

    The big problem with this "push", if it's real, is that the Obama administration doesn't have the credibility it needs to back the treaty. Nobody who didn't already want the treaty is going to believe a thing these guys say.

    1. Re:Missing credibility right now by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The fact that he's waited till a year before he leaves office shows he's not terribly serious about it. If he'd been serious, he'd have been working toward it for the last seven years. Or at least the last three years (he hasn't been eligible for reelection that long, so why not?)....

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    2. Re:Missing credibility right now by Tailhook · · Score: 1

      Treaties only we obey. Let it rot another quarter century and if — after that time has passed — China and Iran want to sign+ratify, we'll see. In the meantime, pursuing this non-problem serves as evidence that we've solved all of our actual problems.

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      Maw! Fire up the karma burner!
    3. Re:Missing credibility right now by careysub · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Right . He has only arranged a deal to shut down the Iranian nuclear weapons program. You know, that thing that Mitt Romney called "the greatest threat that the world faces"? Nothing at all.

      --
      Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
    4. Re:Missing credibility right now by blue9steel · · Score: 2

      Considering that the other alternative was to begin bombing, it seems worth trying.

    5. Re:Missing credibility right now by matfud · · Score: 2

      China has signed it but like the US has not ratified it. Iran? who cares.
      India and Pakistan have not signed it.

    6. Re:Missing credibility right now by dinfinity · · Score: 1

      Undoing misclick mod.

    7. Re:Missing credibility right now by quantaman · · Score: 2

      A 'non-treaty' that has so many holes that people are already debating if Iran has already broken it. The only thing the deal does is makes sure to delay Iran getting a nuke until after Obama (and, therefore, Kerry) leaves office.

      Who is debating if Iran has already broken it? The same people who are still spinning BS about the Iranians getting 24 days to delay inspections to undeclared sites (more like 17 days), claiming that Iranians will be inspecting their own facilities or that the US has to defend Iran in a war?

      The Iran deal is a good idea, the only reasons to oppose it have nothing to do with keeping Nukes away from Iran.

      Similarly ratifying the CTBT is a good idea that makes the world safer, improves the US's reputation, and improves the US's relative military advantage. The only reason to oppose it is politics.

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      I stole this Sig
    8. Re:Missing credibility right now by Zontar+The+Mindless · · Score: 1

      Kerry has another year as head of state...

      No he doesn't.

      John Kerry is Secretary of State.

      Barack Obama is Head of State.

      ("Head of State" has a clearly defined meaning and it's got nothing to do with the State Department.)

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      Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
    9. Re:Missing credibility right now by khallow · · Score: 1

      I think the previous poster meant "head of the State Department", but if they didn't, you set them straight.

    10. Re:Missing credibility right now by blindseer · · Score: 1

      No, there is a reason to oppose a complete ban on nuclear weapon testing outside of politics.

      So, let's say we use simulations to verify our weapon design. Does that simulation prove the weapon works as intended? No, it doesn't. Only detonation of the weapon will prove it works as intended.

      In computer engineering we us simulations all the time. Creating a real actual integrated circuit costs a lot of money. Even using FPGAs in testing costs money because it's a lot easier to simulate a test bench than to build one for real. Even after all the testing is done in simulation a small run of real circuits are built for testing. Good thing too. If computer testing was done like nuclear weapon testing then we'd have a pile of worthless computers because the real circuit didn't work like the simulated one.

      If any nation is going to claim to have a working nuclear arsenal then they must prove it through periodic testing. Someone that's detonated a real nuclear bomb in war time, like the USA, might be able to bluff their way through not testing for a long time but that won't suffice for everyone. These nations are going to want to test their weapons, of only to show others that they have a successful design before a shooting war starts.

      Also, digital circuit design is not like nuclear weapon deign. We've been building digital circuits for a very long time and making billions or trillions of them. We know how they work. Nuclear weapons are a technology that we are still learning about. We need to test to build a proper simulation. The simulation is only as good as the data put into it. Garbage in, garbage out. Nuclear weapon testing not only verifies the design, it verifies the simulation.

      No wonder a complete nuclear weapon test ban failed to get approval, no one with the knowledge of how actual simulation works is going to agree to not be able to test their simulations once in a while. If the simulators are garbage then the designs tested by it are likely to be garbage as well.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    11. Re:Missing credibility right now by quantaman · · Score: 1

      The thing is that no one is able to match the US's combination of previous testing data and simulation abilities so in a no-test world (or a world with only 1 or 2 symbolic tests) the US has a huge advantage over other nations claiming Nuclear capabilities.

      This is why the US no longer performs Nuclear tests, so they can raise the diplomatic costs of performing tests for other nations. And since the US isn't going to start testing anyway ratifying the treaty only makes the diplomatic cost for other nations higher.

      --
      I stole this Sig
    12. Re:Missing credibility right now by ToddInSF · · Score: 1

      Why not ? Strategy. It's really not complicated.

    13. Re:Missing credibility right now by Dog-Cow · · Score: 1

      Who would have begun bombing? Obama doesn't give a shit if Iran gets The Bomb, and he sure as shit doesn't care if they use it, given their first target would be Israel.

    14. Re:Missing credibility right now by whodunit · · Score: 1

      A deal with no method of enforcement or verification, relying entirely on Iran's stellar promises and clean hands.

      Get bent.

  3. Am I the only one that... by manoweb · · Score: 3, Interesting

    ...would like to attend a test detonation? My ultimate dream would be to witness, at a safe distance and with the proper danger mitigation procedures in place, a nuclear detonation. I mean an atmospheric one, not underground. They have done *thousands* such tests some decades ago, now that we understand these devices better, it should be much safer.

    1. Re:Am I the only one that... by sconeu · · Score: 3, Informative

      Atmospheric tests were banned by treaty in the '60s.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      And how do you plan on dealing with fallout?

      --
      General Relativity: Space-time tells matter where to go; Matter tells space-time what shape to be.
    2. Re:Am I the only one that... by rubycodez · · Score: 2

      The real world nuclear devices are not clean, even without counting fission primary they aren't even "fusion" weapons, but a fission-fusion positive feedback system. so half the energy comes from fission and half from fusion (again completely ignoring primary trigger)

      There are estimates of cancers and deaths from all that testing, the answer is they performed all those detonations and killed and maimed thousands. let's stop doing that, m'kay?

    3. Re:Am I the only one that... by erice · · Score: 1

      Atmospheric tests were banned by treaty in the '60s.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      And how do you plan on dealing with fallout?

      Move? Fallout does not rain down immediately. It takes quite some time for particulate matter raised by a nuclear explosion to come back back to ground. All an observer needs to do to avoid fallout is not hang around long after watching the detonation. Also, an aerial detonation produces negligible fallout anyway.

      That does not mean it is safe, though. If you can see the explosion than the primary X-rays and gamma rays can "see" you. I don't think there is any safe way to directly observe a nuclear explosion.

    4. Re:Am I the only one that... by Lodlaiden · · Score: 1

      Could we do tests on the Moon, to "tap" it back into place, so it doesn't wander off? I'd be afraid of it starting to spin though.

      --
      Suborbital [spaceflight] is the special olympics of spaceflight. - Rei
    5. Re:Am I the only one that... by sims+2 · · Score: 1

      The test detonation is not really the dangerous part at this point It's the weather. In years past https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... (1954 Castle Bravo) the winds have shifted and exposed unexpected areas to fallout.

      I would like to think we can predict the weather better today than we could in the 1950's but If you have ever tried to plan around a weather forecast you know how inaccurate they can be.

      Afaik kim jong un has not agreed to any nuclear testing treaties although so far all the claimed tests have taken place underground. I don't know of any other countries that are still doing testing.

      Personally while I think it's interesting I think we should give up on keeping nukes on weapons dump the money into energy research or start a home for homeless squirrels anything really would be better than keeping huge stockpiles of expensive dangerous weapons that we aren't allowed to use anyway.

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      Minimum threshold fixed. Thanks!
    6. Re:Am I the only one that... by nojayuk · · Score: 1

      Hundreds actually, if you're only counting atmospheric tests although some were underwater and a handful in the stratosphere. The US fired off about 220 atmospheric tests, going to underground testing after the Sunbeam series of tests in Nevada in 1962. The Soviets did a lot fewer; the US has carried out more than half of all the nuclear tests by all nations.

    7. Re:Am I the only one that... by sims+2 · · Score: 1

      I think it's one of many things that we just didn't realise how dangerous it was at the time. Just some the things I can think of. Mercury used to be sold as a toy to children. Radioactive glow in the dark paint. Drinking radioactive water for better health. Shoe-fitting xray machines.

      Anyone would tell you that those were terrible dangerous ideas today but at one time it was considered safe.

      At one point in time there was a large push to find a peaceful use for nuclear explosives (see the DOE's plowshare program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... ) but no one was ever able to make one detonate cleanly enough to consider it safe.

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      Minimum threshold fixed. Thanks!
    8. Re:Am I the only one that... by Greyfox · · Score: 2

      I weep for the unborn generations of children who will never know the joy of taking a break from helping dad lay asbestos in the attic to enjoy a smooth cigarette and a delicious mercury smoothie.

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      I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?

    9. Re:Am I the only one that... by matfud · · Score: 1
    10. Re:Am I the only one that... by Garfong · · Score: 1

      How to make a nuclear weapon is (as far as I know) not particularly hard to figure out. Even in the Manhattan project the major hurdle wasn't the bomb design, it was acquiring the necessary nuclear materials. E.g. they were so confident in the design dropped on Hiroshima they never tested it in advance.

      Now, of course, it's even easier. Apparently in the 50s the US government wanted to see how easy it would be for countries to acquire the bomb, so they had a couple newly minted physics Ph.D.s attempt to design a nuclear weapon based on publicly available information. It took them 2-3 years, and they ended up with a design which likely would have worked.

    11. Re:Am I the only one that... by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

      And how do you plan on dealing with fallout?

      Stay upwind

      Testing is necessary. Might be be better to do it space, on the moon, for mining...

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    12. Re:Am I the only one that... by rubycodez · · Score: 1

      Go ahead and chug a shot of the mercury, elemental mercury will just go right through you with no worries. Compounds of mercury are a different matter.

    13. Re:Am I the only one that... by Spinalcold · · Score: 2

      Just watched The Fantastic Mr Feynman and found it interesting that while everyone put on sunglasses for the first test, he did some quick calculations and just got behind normal glass to block the UV. He was the only person to see that first test with the true naked eye. Must have been amazing and horrifying at the same time.

    14. Re:Am I the only one that... by Greyfox · · Score: 1

      That's exactly what dad said! Then he'd pour some over his Kelloggs Shredded Asbestos(tm) and hand me another Pall Mall!

      --

      I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?

    15. Re:Am I the only one that... by rubycodez · · Score: 1

      Kellogs? Don't eat processed sugar and bleached flour breakfast cereals, that shit will kill you

  4. Re:Testing is necessary by rubycodez · · Score: 1

    you gotta be kidding, those things run on backpack/suitcase nukes

  5. If testing is unneceessary than what is the point? by erice · · Score: 1

    Underground testing was never an environmental problem. Ending all testing has always been about ending the nuclear arms race.

    If technology allows the existing arsenal to be tested without detonating anything then it is only a small step further for new designs to be be verified without physical testing. Then we are back on the nuclear treadmill only this time, advancement can be hidden since there are no testing that friends or foes can detect.

  6. Re: Testing is necessary by kellymcdonald78 · · Score: 1

    NERVA is not impacted by the treaty as it doesn't involve nuclear explosions

  7. Re:If testing is unneceessary than what is the poi by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

    Well yeah, that's the point. It's political to ensure those in the Middle East, N. Korea, India, Pakistan, and potentially Iran get condemnation buy the more advanced nations. Nations such as the US, Russia, China, and UK are well advanced enough to just continue on with computer simulations. Personally, I think it's all BS. Creating a political artificial barrier to entry never has, and never will work. But, it will be done so that "something was done" to pat themselves on the back for doing something.

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    Life is not for the lazy.
  8. Re:Sounds like something a US defense contractor s by KGIII · · Score: 1

    Littoral Combat Ship.

    I was all sorts of excited when I first read about this. Then, I realized I was reading it wrong.

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    "So long and thanks for all the fish."
  9. Trust and cynics by mynamestolen · · Score: 1

    To those commenting above that they wouldn't believe a word the US says, I share your doubts, but with one BIG proviso. Doesn't the CTBT include inspection regimes that treaty partners sign up to so that everyone can be assured that other signees are following the rules? Seems like a great idea to me.

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    work in progress
  10. Re:If testing is unneceessary than what is the poi by Gavagai80 · · Score: 2

    It has already worked. Not perfectly, and it'll continue to fail in various ways, but the international pressure has prevented a lot of countries from considering it worth the risk.

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  11. Re:Ha, another leftist hates the truth by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    If people are going to rapidly down-score things to -1, they ought to at least post a thoughtful argument for doing so. I've never done that to even the most left-wing of posters here.

    Maybe you should start.

  12. We got ours by penguinoid · · Score: 1

    Now that we've done every nuclear weapons test we can imagine to get all the data we might need, it's time to ban this horrible practice.

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    Don't waste your vote! Vote for whoever you want, unless you live in a swing state it won't matter anyways
  13. Re:nope, will not gutter-dive by ToddInSF · · Score: 1

    The whole left-right thing is tired and hypocritical.

    If you're going to make blanket statements like that about who actively suppresses free speech, you should attempt to back them up with something substantial. Because most people that read your shit just look at it and dismiss you as a anon troll.

    Which is what you are.

  14. Re:Sounds like something a US defense contractor s by Dog-Cow · · Score: 1

    And holding it wrong. Or at least that's what she said!

  15. Great. Just great... by TaleSpinner · · Score: 1

    Coming on top of Obama's huge "success" with Iran and nuclear weapons we can expect the following good things to come out of this:

    - Iran will be excepted from conditions of the treaty
    - China's compliance will be self-monitored and voluntary
    - Russia's compliance will be mandatory and supervised by the UN, but they'll ignore the damn thing and do as they please while Obama takes all the credit, and the UN won't give a damn unless they can use global warming to shut down capitalism..