Slashdot Mirror
Bank of England's Andy Haldane Warns Smart Machines Could Take 15M UK Jobs (robotenomics.com)
New submitter Colin Robotenomics writes In an important new paper based on a speech at the trade union congress in London, Andy Haldane Chief Economist at the Bank of England and Executive Director of Monetary Analysis and Statistics has examined the history of technological unemployment and has given a thorough review of the literature and implications for public policy. The media will likely focus on the number of jobs that can be displaced and not necessarily Haldane's points on new jobs being created – both of which are highly important as is 'skilling-up'. His report reads in part: "...Taking the probabilities of automation, and multiplying them by the numbers employed, gives a broad brush estimate of the number of jobs potentially automatable. For the UK, that would suggest up to 15 million jobs could be at risk of automation. In the US, the corresponding figure would be 80 million jobs."
15M UK people could do something else. The world fails to end.
They've been saying this since the 1970s, with all sorts of forecasts of 15 hour weeks. Yet there are many millions now in work compared to the 1970s and everyone's working longer hours than ever.
Oolite: Elite-like game. For Mac, Linux and Windows
That's what a lot of people don't understand. 15 million people not having to do tedious mindnumbing work that can be replaced by a machine is a GOOD thing. The fact that this is seen as bad news is proof of our disfunctional society and economical model. The day basic income comes in together with a reform of our economy, is the day automation will truely be embraced as it should.
In Capitalist US, the commerce controls the Government.
UK population is 64M.
The UK workforce is 30M[1]
You're trying to tell us that half of all jobs in the UK can be replaced by "smart machines"?
Somehow I don't believe that number.
[1] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new...
The estimate is way too low. We will rapidly replace almost all human employment. And it will not be in just the lowly positions at all. School teachers are already being laid off as computers can teach certain subject quite nicely. Meanwhile, the public does not want to see what is happening. The denial is so deep it resembles global warming denial. There are already homes being built by 3D printers and there is one bridge actually being 3D printed at this time. The public sees these things as a novelty or some kind of foolishness, but the reality is that it will explode and eliminate entire trades with an ever accelerating pace. Since humans rarely learn from past mistakes, we will do nothing to improve the transition until we suffer deeply.
> Smart Machines Could Take 15M UK Jobs
The same topic has recently been discussed on Slashdot, concerning another island nation:
http://tech.slashdot.org/story/15/11/03/2256251/analog-still-big-in-japan
The article is definitely correct on one point. It says "The media will likely focus on the number of jobs that can be displaced and not necessarily Haldane's points on new jobs being created." And the /. headline? "Bank of England's Andy Haldane Warns Smart Machines Could Take 15M UK Jobs."
Quidnam Latine loqui modo coepi?
What would you say if I told you that today is Friday . . . the THIRTEENTH !!
Finally, things are coming to the point Marx predicted two hundred years ago. Take that, modern economics.
No,because it's from those morons in threadneedle street,they are so far removed from reality and so used to lying about everything that you cannot trust a word they say. According to them,interest rates should now have been going up for a year,same in USA,idiots with fingers crossed that wishful thinking works...
Who`s going to buy all that machine prodced stuff?
Millions of millions of jobless across the globe?
* Some people simply can`t be trained to to status qou white collor jobs. You can`t breed a slash dotter off of a truck driver, etc, etc, etc, etc.. Much less to put millions of job less truck drivers into a evermore accellerating IT.
*Some people simply can't bei trained to be artists. You can`t breed a successful, artst aout of an slash dotter.
Art is a personal desposition, not so much a paying job.
Nothing, to put millions of people into work, still more so for a paying job.
I really suspect, the political class (globally) will decline the prospect this ever to happen. They've been brought up the way, it is since the industrial revolution. We've been brought up this way as well.
Once millions of people will be lais of in a couple of years, (or even months), they will lose their ability to feed themselves, their familes, the very same companies, that laid them off 3 months earlier.
The whole organism will grind to a halt.
Why continue to produce food, products, services, civilisation when no one will have money to buy it?
So there's probably only one way to solve this.
Unemployed people will have to be able to buy stuff, no matter what. That alone will change the entire planet.
Machine tax (iirc)...
Just my 2 cents...
$15/hr movement isn't moving fast enough for my robots to take over and make my order right 100% of the time, every time.
The guy who invented new pin machine makes more, the guy who buys new pin machine makes more. The guys who only did as told and never attempted to improve themselves are in misery.
What you are implying is the guys who invented/invested in new pin machines should get no benefit from it and the lazy guys should get it all. If we went with that economic theory, how many advancements would be made? There is no benefit to inventing new techniques, no benefit to investing in new equipment, why bother because you would get no benefit from it.
The other side, the total economy is improved for everyone because those laid off pin makers can make something else, or even collect welfare as they mow the lawns of the workers. Instead of that you sound like you want to punish the successful and teach them and everyone else the lesson to not be successful or you will use the full force of the government to punish them for thinking ahead.
For economists and planners, the world of tomorrow is always the world of today, plus a little bit of what's already going on today. Forecasts of doom because of the 'machines take over' have been around since a long, long time.
Religion is what happens when nature strikes and groupthink goes wrong.
In other news, the invention of the modern light bulb will put thousands of whale hunters, butchers and ship owners out of work, endangering their retirements and family healthcare plans.
The solution that all the socialist countries is trying is unlimited immigration by uneducated Muslims. If the system does not crash on its own, bring in more unemployables. Once they control the government they can bring down those pesky statues of kings and perhaps Big Ben too. Ask Syria how it is working out.
Create robots to do our jobs and create a huge underclass of unemployed peasants who are completely dependent upon the government dole. These will be simple workers, tied to the land and living at the leisure of their demoncrap masters. They want to force the men to fight for their amusement and use the women into sexual servitude. This is what liberals want. They want to own you. Because they hate you.
Hey now, that's an unfair comparison. Syria doesn't have millions of white women to gangrape to the point that their intestines come spilling out their buttholes.
and bank of england can be replaced with bitcoin?
should be enough for any planet
There won't be 15M jobs left in the UK after the dust settles.
Time for a one child policy. Everywhere.
Perhaps this will make us think whether it makes sense to create more people in the long run. If automation and uncertainty about the future drive down the birth rate, in a few centuries this planet will become a much better place.
Lets throw it under rug and let them win...
OK, lets all believe the 15mil is right.
Now what NEW jobs will be created from the influx of human resources available?
Or is it that politicians are lazy and business owners only want the status quo. All lazy arse folks at this point. Adam Smith rolling in his grave I say.
The following very interesting video discusses this topic, worth 15 minutes of your time....
http://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU
@daddydidaw