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This October Was the Hottest Ever Measured (scienceblogs.com)

GregLaden writes: Scientists track the global surface temperature, an average of readings from thermometers at approximately head height, and an estimate of sea surface temperatures, in order to track global warming. Over the last year or so we have been seeing many record-breaking months. Now, both the Japan Meteorological Agency and NASA have identified October as an extraordinary month. October 2016 is significantly warmer than any other in the NASA record, which goes back to 1880.

26 of 369 comments (clear)

  1. Back to the future.. by malkavian · · Score: 5, Funny

    Nice to know that next year will be even warmer.. I've been enjoying the warm October we've had here in 2015..

    1. Re:Back to the future.. by PopeRatzo · · Score: 5, Insightful

      keeping academics awash in a government funding jackpot

      Those filthy rich scientists, awash in money. Yes, they're the problem. Greedy goddamn climate scientists and their grubby-handed grad student research assistants. Living like kings while the honest energy industry has to scratch out a subsistence with nothing but hard work and grit.

      I'll tell you, this world is upside-down.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    2. Re:Back to the future.. by dave420 · · Score: 3, Informative

      You seem to be in the "I don't understand it, but from my limited personal experience and assumption of knowledge I'm pretty sure it'll be fine" camp.

      Anything that helps reduce your heating bills is fine with you? So you'd be fine with someone murdering you then, as that will lower your bills to 0 indefinitely - clearly there are limits to what you'd accept to lower your bills. Hyperbole aside, the warming you are experiencing comes with a price, and that price is a lot more than your heating bills. No-one is denying the climate hasn't changed in the past, only that when it has changed this quickly we weren't around to experience it, and that a climate change will mess up humanity's requirements from the land - such as farming where we have the suitable land, infrastructure, and skills to make use of it. Our crops are also suited to our current climate - more CO2 and heat will cause lower staple crop yields, and make pests more dangerous to the crops.

      But I guess you can ignore all the science, focus on your temporary heating bill dip, and be happy. That's easier and doesn't require all this horrible thinking.

  2. NASA ignoring satellite measurements... by Glock27 · · Score: 5, Informative

    That's amazing! Especially, given the complete lack of correlation with the satellite datasets:

    UAH RSS

    The satellite datasets directly integrate temperature over almost the entire globe, with no interpolation and no revisionist "adjustments". They use laboratory grade instruments, and are frequently calibrated against balloon soundings. And no, there is nothing magic as far as detecting temperature trends gained by measuring at ground level only.

    It's beyond ironic that NASA is trumpeting ground-based measurements while ignoring better data gathered from space.

    --
    Galileo: "The Earth revolves around the Sun!"
    Score: -1 100% Flamebait
    1. Re:NASA ignoring satellite measurements... by Yoda222 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Which part of the statement "This October Was the Hottest Ever Measured" is the uah data supposed to completely "lack of correlation" with? When I look at the global temperature in the uah data (http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt , Globe column) and take only October (month=10), I see that October 2015 is indeed the warmer, with a delta of 0.57 degC with 1981-2010, where the previous warmest were 2012 and 2014 with 0.37 each.

      It's relatively difficult to see that in your plot, as you give a plot with all temperatures, including October and the other 11 months of the year.

    2. Re:NASA ignoring satellite measurements... by Glock27 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      That's amazing! Especially, given the complete lack of correlation with the satellite datasets:

      UAH RSS

      The satellite datasets directly integrate temperature over almost the entire globe, with no interpolation and no revisionist "adjustments". They use laboratory grade instruments, and are frequently calibrated against balloon soundings. And no, there is nothing magic as far as detecting temperature trends gained by measuring at ground level only.

      It's beyond ironic that NASA is trumpeting ground-based measurements while ignoring better data gathered from space.

      And the first satelite was launched when?

      Ohhh certainly not in the late 1800's.

      Certainly. However, since the last adjustments, the surface datasets of record have been diverging from the satellite measurements:

      The Diverging Surface Thermometer and Satellite Temperature Records
      The Diverging Surface Thermometer and Satellite Temperature Records Again

      Interesting that this is taking place going into another big climate conference complete with demands for "climate justice", and also while we're on the eve of a solar Grand Minimum...

      A quote from that last linked article:

      Scientists at the Climate and Environmental Physics and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Berne in Switzerland have recently backed up theories that support the sun's importance in determining the climate on Earth. A paper published last year by the American Meteorological Society contradicts claims by IPCC scientists that the sun couldn't be responsible for major shifts in climate. Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, rejected IPCC assertions that solar variations don't matter. Among the many studies and authorities she cited was the National Research Council's recent report "The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate".

      Other researchers and organisations are also predicting global cooling - the Russian Academy of Science, the Astronomical Institute of the Slovak Academy of Scientists, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism Russia, Victor Manuel Velesco Herrera at the National University of Mexico, the Bulgarian Institute of Astronomy, Dr Tim Patterson at Carleton University in Canada, Drs Lin Zhen at Nanjing University in China, just to name a few.

      --
      Galileo: "The Earth revolves around the Sun!"
      Score: -1 100% Flamebait
    3. Re:NASA ignoring satellite measurements... by CaptainLard · · Score: 4, Funny

      Lottery Commission: "Congratulations! You just won our largest ever estimated jackpot! $539M is greater than the next biggest jackpot by 0.08% +/- $2k! We'll know for sure in 2 weeks."
      You: "Yawn. I only deal in absolutes and percentages greater than (some moving target)% and spend all my time pointing out anything less than perfect information delivered by time travelers from the future. As you can imagine the internet keeps me too busy to deal with that worthless jackpot."

    4. Re:NASA ignoring satellite measurements... by bdeclerc · · Score: 3, Informative

      1) Satellites don't measure the same thing as ground thermometers (satellites measure the lower troposphere in its entirety, surface thermometers measure the surface temp) so it's not entirely unsurprising they don't give identical numbers to within an error margin.

      2) Satellites don't measure polar temperatures very well, and polar amplification makes the temps at particularly the north pole go up faster than average - so a lower total response from the satellite data is expected.

      3) People are freaking out over minor adjustments to the surface record which are well-supported by evidence (for example corrections made for a change in the time-of-day of the measurements at some stations at some point, or stations moving from city-centers to airports outside the city center) but the whole satellite record itself is full of far bigger corrections, the raw data of the satellites isn't a directly measured temperature but a remote sensor reading, which is influenced by a whole bunch of internal (sensor drift) and external (observation angle, satellite orbital height, weather conditions) factors. It's almost a miracle that they manage to get a useful data-series out of these satellite sensors.

      Honestly, the only reason deniers try to argue that the satellite record is "more accurate" is because it shows a higher peak in 1998 and less total warming, allowing them to fiddle with the results to make it appear there's no warming at all - except that nowadays even the satellite record no longer supports that conclusion.

  3. Re:Why this is wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    Actually, there would be measurements of sea surface temperatures over many decades. This is done for good reason.

    Even before meteorology was a science, people had a good reason to want to know sea surface temperatures. They affect fishing, which is a source of money and food. In shipping routes, it would affect when they might see ice on the waters, which is a hazard. Sea surface temperatures were measured then. I'm aware of data sets going back to the 17th century. You can easily get this data online for free.

    Today, ships still do measure sea surface temperature, in addition to buoys. This data is of particular interest in tropical regions because of the importance to hurricanes. Measurements are done as water is cycled through the engine rather than lowering a bucket overboard to sample the water. For that reason, there is a positive bias to the raw observations during the past several decades. As a result, the temperature record is actually revised downward in recent decades to counteract the observation bias. Despite what some people think, adjustments to the data to remove biases work both ways. Not all are upward. Also, global sea surface temperature data generally comes from the many satellites in orbit. This data set only goes back a few decades, but it's a great data set.

  4. Re:Climate has never not been changing. by PolygamousRanchKid+ · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Not the point. Point: it's never changed this fast, and it's our fault. Denier doesn't get it, news at 11:05.

    True science needs deniers:

    That is the essence of science: ask an impertinent question, and you are on the way to a pertinent answer. - - Jacob Bronowski

    The "Science" of Physics was "settled" back in the time of Issac Newton. Oops, then came Einstein along! Our views on global climate change are based on we *think* is right, based on the facts that we have today. In another 100 years, things might look very differently. Hey, using blood-sucking leeches to treat sick folks seemed like a good idea a while back! The gag is, blood-sucking leeches are back in fashion in modern medicine: it turns out that they are very useful in restoring blood flow to skin transplants.

    Even Einstein himself, probably one of the most gifted minds that ever walked on this planet, had problems with that newfangled Quantum Theory:

    Einstein: "God does not play dice!"

    Niels Bohr: "Stop telling God what to do!"

    Erwin Schrödinger: "So, is like, my cat dead or alive . . . ?"

    Einstein: "If I had my way, all those cats would be dead! They pee on my furniture, and shit in my shoes!"

    --
    Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
  5. Re:Climate has never not been changing. by Jason+Levine · · Score: 3, Informative

    And just to forestall anyone replying to you with "lots of snow means no global warming": Warmer air means it can hold more moisture. This leads to more precipitation. Also, warmer weather means less lakes freeze over which means more lake effect snow. So a warming climate CAN lead to more snow despite the claims of certain politicians who claim that seeing snow outside proves global warming wrong.

    --
    My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
  6. Re:Climate has never not been changing. by rs79 · · Score: 3, Informative

    Try going outside. You appear to be in a condo in Vancouver. You may be on heroin.

    It's been so cold in Canada in the last three years we've broken dozens if not hundreds of cold record temperature records:

    http://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/febru...

    We've not broken one for warm/hot, just record cold.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...

    "Environment Canada has released its list of top weather stories over the past year, and the long winter chill took top spot."

    The Great Lakes attained 92 per cent ice coverage for the first time in 35 years, sea ice was back on the East Coast and ice in the Gulf of St. Lawrence was its thickest in 25 years."

    Frost in late may/early June? Welcome to Canada, eh?

    http://www.quintenews.com/2015...

    Niagra falls has frozen about 7 times in 200 years. Last year and the year before were two of those times.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new...

    Plus, you know, the Arctic sea ice has grown so much - because it's unseasonabley cold and hs been for a decade according to the NOAA - that we have to redraw the maps becvause of eht INCREASE IN ARCTIC SEA ICE. There's more of it now than when "global warming" started.

    I'd have to say, as a Canadian living in Canada you don't see a lot of global warming here. More like the next ice age.

    One scientist who predicted this in 2008 had his work vetted by CERN and NASA and botttom line: 27 more years of this cold then it'll warm again.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/technol...

    Look at the number of temperature records set for cold and hot worldwide. I believe that explains why they're so desperate to prove a hot climate record. It's because they keep trying to prove one, keep being corrected when it's pointed out it's not really a record in a field of so many cold weather records.

    Can't say there's any sign of warming in Canada. The current Indian Summer, a first in a decade is not a sign the planet is warming, Sparky.

    --
    Need Mercedes parts ?
  7. Re:Climate has never not been changing. by RabidReindeer · · Score: 5, Insightful

    True science needs deniers:

    No, True science needs challengers.

    You can deny the Gravitational Theory all you want, but if I drop an anvil on your head, you're still dead.

    On the other hand, if someone challenges that gravity must inevitably operate in such and such a way and that leads to development of anti-grav technology, that's True science.

  8. Re:Climate has never not been changing. by SomeoneFromBelgium · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The "Science" of Physics was "settled" back in the time of Issac Newton. Oops, then came Einstein along!

    Well, yes and no. Yes in relativistic environments (near light speed) you get a different physics. But this is only applicable to elementary particles and the like.

    For the rest: all the calculations that were done previously using Newton's laws: the force needed to change the speed of an (not relativistic) object (cars, trains, elements of a machine...) are STILL calculated using newtons law.

    And this is the hallmark of the true science denier: he wants to use the fact that science is allways in motion to promote the notion that nothing is ever certain. I can assure you that whatever new theories there will be found concerning the laws of physics they will have to comply with all known observations and therefore will have to be in compliance with newton's laws for normal day to day objects.

    Einsteins theories have not supplanted Newton's theory gave an extension for elementary particles. BTW talking about Bohr and the theory of quantum mechanics: there is no sane way to apply these to macroscopic objects. For that you NEED newton's laws. So in that sense they are more complementary.

  9. Re:Climate has never not been changing. by NotDrWho · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The problem that I have with anthropogenic global warming is that it started out sounded like a science-based issue, but it has since moved into the realm that's more reminiscent of a religion (complete with established dogma, punishment of heretics, an apocalyptic theology, etc.). Most proponents today sound less like reasonable people and more and more like shrill cultists holding up placards proclaiming the end is nigh.

    It also disturbs me that AGW proponents have not only created an echo-chamber for themselves within the university system, but have also carefully tailored what appears to be an unfalsifiable hypothesis. It's very difficult to conceive of any data that could contradict it. And when data DOES come along that seemingly does contradict it--rather than reconsidering the hypothesis itself, proponents merely "adjust" the data until it nicely fits the hypothesis again.

    Meanwhile, individual weather patterns continue to be dismissed as "just weather" when they are mild or abnormally cold, but sung from the rooftops as evidence of AGW when they are usually chaotic or hot. This very report cites October as the hottest October on record as evidence of global warming. Will it therefore be evidence AGAINST global warming if this December is the coldest December on record? Or will the same people who cited this report as AGW evidence suddenly dismiss that as "just a minor weather pattern, not related to climate."? Or maybe the data would somehow be cleverly be "adjusted" until December turns into the hottest on record instead (you see, that initial data didn't take into account a huge adjustment for ocean currents being very strong in the Indian Ocean this year, therefore we have to adjust it up several degrees to compensate).

    I know this will get me modded down on /. But that is why I've come to seriously doubt the idea of anthropocentric global warming over the last several years, and why I have come to believe that the issue is more about religious zealotry and social agendas than actual science.

    --
    SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
  10. Cui bono? by Opportunist · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Quite frankly, I start to get pissed. Ok, folks, from both sides of the fence, please tell me why. Why would the "other side" lie, and lie so vehemently to start something that is nothing short of a religious war by now?

    What's in it for you, specifically? I can see why corporations would fight accepting human created climate change tooth and nail considering that emission control is coming up right behind such an admission. What do you have to gain or lose from siding with whatever side you're not on that you go into full blown shitstorm mode whenever the topic comes up?

    And this is by far not the only topic that gets people worked up. What the fuck is wrong with you? Have no problems so you have to create some to get worked up about, so you feel like you still exist?

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  11. Re: Climate has never not been changing. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Anybody else curious that they reference October 2016 in the article, not 2015? I'm not sure that I can trust this information, maybe it needs another correction. :-)

  12. Where does the sun go at night? by truck_soccer · · Score: 3, Insightful

    You can't answer THAT, scientists.

  13. Re:Climate has never not been changing. by Plumpaquatsch · · Score: 4, Informative
    http://www.vancouversun.com/te...

    64 temperature records smashed in B.C.
    Weather experts are now predicting June will be Vancouver's hottest on record
    Vancouver Sun June 30, 2015
    Fuck you.

    --
    Of course news about a fake are Fake News.
  14. Re:Climate has never not been changing. by Plumpaquatsch · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The problem that I have with anthropogenic global warming is that it started out sounded like a science-based issue, but it has since moved into the realm that's more reminiscent of a religion (complete with established dogma, punishment of heretics, an apocalyptic theology, etc.).

    IOW you were fine with it until somebody noticed that there could be real life consequences. Then you locked up, because that's something only religions talk about, but not real science - that lives in a world of spherical cows in a vacuum on a frictionless surface.

    --
    Of course news about a fake are Fake News.
  15. Re:Climate has never not been changing. by dave420 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    It's called "an overwhelming body of evidence, which some people ignore on ideological grounds".

    It's not an echo chamber, it's science. If someone can demonstrate AGW is not happening, they will find fame and fortune in these exact same institutions. They will be lauded and given wealth and opportunity beyond measure.

    All your examples are just ignorance of what the scientists are actually talking about and what they're doing. Blaming them for that is, well, ridiculous. Judging from what you've written you have a lot of knowledge of this subject missing, so no wonder you get so confused. It would look like a scam to me, too, if I knew as little as you do on the subject. I don't mean to sound rude, but there is simply no other way to put it.

    The fact you will ignore scientific discoveries because they sound weird to you and confuse the evening news with scientific journals speaks more of your grasp of science than any science in particular.

    And yes, people who actively deny scientific findings (using a medium born from the same method) will usually garner criticism, and rightly so. The irony is palpable.

  16. Re:Climate has never not been changing. by budgenator · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Don't get too excited, we're in a pretty strong El Nino, it's supposed to be unseasonably warm, I'm worried that it's not warmer. The Warmists are grasping at straws because even the El Nino hasn't broken the pause, there still hasn't been any statistically significant warming in the RSS satellite data for 223 months.

    --
    Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
  17. Re:Climate has never not been changing. by CaptainLard · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The problem that I have with anthropogenic global warming is that it started out sounded like a science-based issue, but it has since moved into the realm that's more reminiscent of a religion (complete with established dogma, punishment of heretics, an apocalyptic theology, etc.).

    So what? The science is still there no matter how much perceived crap is on top of it! The greenhouse effect still traps radiated heat from sources such as incident light (see: your car with the windows up in the sun). CO2 acts as a greenhouse gas in atmosphere (see: Venus). The carbon cycle has recorded itself in all sorts of ways so we have a general picture of whats "normal" (see: tree rings, ice cores, fossil record). Humans are currently contributing carbon to the atmosphere that is NOT part of the usual cycle (see: oil rigs digging 5 miles into the earth) but was sequestered a long time ago when conditions were drastically different.

    If you stop worrying about how some guy says some data point may be off by 0.3% and look at what we know about the physical world we occupy it should be obvious that we should be spending time and money on reducing our carbon footprint.

  18. Re:Climate has never not been changing. by budgenator · · Score: 3, Insightful

    When somebody like you calls the adjusted, normalized field data average monthly temperature data, my head just wants to explode. Even the Climatologists call it "Data product".

    --
    Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
  19. The thought police are coming...if we let them! by CheckeredFlag · · Score: 3, Interesting

    A recent Rasmussen poll states:

    But 68% of Likely U.S. Voters oppose the government investigating and prosecuting scientists and others including major corporations who question global warming.

    Seriously? 32% of Americans are not opposed to imprisoning scientists having theories that differ from the political establishment?!

    Ridiculous you say? It's already happening with a number of climate scientists calling on Obama to bring racketeering charges on skeptics:

    The science on global warming is settled, so settled that 20 climate scientists are asking President Barack Obama to prosecute people who disagree with them on the science behind man-made global warming.

    Scientists from several universities and research centers even asked Obama to use the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) to prosecute groups that “have knowingly deceived the American people about the risks of climate change, as a means to forestall America’s response to climate change.”

    Have we really not progressed from the inquisition of Galileo? Time to wake up, America!

  20. Re:Climate has never not been changing. by TonyXL · · Score: 3, Insightful

    So basically whatever happens (more snow, less snow, more ice, less ice, etc.) the cause can be attributed to global warming. Got it.