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How Close Are We To a Mars Mission? (thenewstack.io)

destinyland writes: NASA is developing the capabilities needed to send humans to an asteroid by 2025 and Mars in the 2030s," reads the official NASA web site. But National Geographic points out that "the details haven't been announced, in large part because such a massive, long-term spending project would require the unlikely support of several successive U.S. presidents." And yet on November 4th, NASA put out a call for astronaut applications "in anticipation of returning human spaceflight launches to American soil, and in preparation for the agency's journey to Mars," and they're currently experimenting with growing food in space. And this week they not only ordered the first commercial mission to the International Space Station, but also quietly announced that they've now partnered with 22 private space companies.

26 of 173 comments (clear)

  1. The Answer: by Pikoro · · Score: 4, Funny

    I'm going to guess about 225 Million km. (on average)

    --
    "Freedom in the USA is not the ability to do what you want. It is the ability to stop others from doing what THEY want"
    1. Re:The Answer: by dotancohen · · Score: 4, Interesting

      We could just hitch a ride on a comet that is flying close by both planets to avoid fuel costs and size of spacecraft limitations :)

      At what relative velocity would you like your spacecraft to land on the comet?

      I know that you are joking, but I've heard this idea proposed seriously more than once. This comment is for those people.

      --
      It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong.
  2. Re: Why is /. so infested now with... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    Because /. is so full of Republicans. So full of Republicans.

  3. Mars isn't going anywhere. by sycodon · · Score: 5, Insightful

    We should not be in such a hurry that we are sending people in fragile tin cans reliant on chemical rockets. Instead we should be working on building an actual Ship in orbit.

    What is a "Ship"? First, it is a vessel with ample power: some kind of reactor that can run all the ship's systems, plus a magnetic shield. The other systems a reactor would power is the engines...Ion or those EM drives (should they pan out. I expect the truth should be sorted out by the time they get around to building something like this). Sure...they are low thrust, but you can have a lot of them. And they have some pretty powerful ones in development.

    Another thing it would have to be is big. Room for rotating sections for artificial gravity, hydroponics, a workshop (because AAA doesn't serve Space yet). Storage for fuel, water, a lander of some sort, etc.

    Sure, it sounds all futuristic, but we have the essential technologies or they are on the drawing boards, or can be with just a bit of political will. It's time we took the next step in Space Travel...the step where it's actual travel and not just joy rides to lower orbit. We can put off Mars for a decade or and instead focus on building something that is safe, reliable and not a one and done soda pop can.

    --
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    1. Re:Mars isn't going anywhere. by Alwin+Henseler · · Score: 2

      Along the same lines, we should establish a permanent Moon base first. The Moon is much, much, much closer to Earth than Mars, but having a permanent base there presents many of the same challenges:

      Temperature extremes, radiation, micro-meteorites (common to any space mission, I suppose). Needing to lift gear much further up than a 300~400 km low orbit. Actually succeeding in landing that gear undamaged. Gravity - but lower than on Earth. Redundant and/or extremely reliable life support systems, since Earth will be 'close' but still too far away for actual emergencies.

      Not to mention the advantage that (some) raw materials could be dug up on site, or even sent back to Earth for analysis. While the latter may not be feasible on a Mars mission, it wouldn't hurt for practice / research purposes. And communication lines would be 'low' latency and easy to set up. Also in case of the Moon, we don't have to wait for a launch window in which Earth & Mars are lined up for a shortest-possible trip time.

      Oh and btw what about other destinations? Read somewhere that the upper atmosphere of Venus might be an option? What about humans on one of the many other moons in our solar system? When talking about manned missions, would those options all be dropped in favour of a Mars mission? (if so, I'd pick the "send more robots" option...)

    2. Re:Mars isn't going anywhere. by Rei · · Score: 4, Interesting

      All of that is vastly more impractical than the current minimalist Mars mission concepts. We can't scrounge up the funding for one of them, and you want to build something vastly larger?

      Magnetic shields are good for preventing solar radiation but do little against GCR. You still need physical shielding sufficient to block GCR - which is harder to block anyway, aka, you still need significant shielding.

      You - and TFA - mentioning growing crops is naive. The reason that all serious baseline approaches only call for small, experimental-level (rather than sustinance-level) crop growing is because A) that's way too much risk (starvation due to crop failure, which is tough enough to prevent here on Earth from thousands of different causes, yet alone in a radically different environment) to impose on an early mission, and B) shipping in the food to last for a typical mission duration is actually lighter than the cost of shipping in a facility large enough to grow that much food and the associated power and environmental systems required to operate it. The ability to grow crops would be important for long-term habitations (which is why NASA is researching it - although the plant growth experiment designed for the Mars 2020 lander got cut), but the first missions to Mars absolutely will not be relying on it for any relevant portion of their calories.

      VASIMR is not new. One however does need to remember the downside: any high ISP /moderate to high thrust system is inherently going to be consuming vast amounts of power. And producing vast amounts of power means vast amounts of cooling area. So while it's "possible" to power a ship like this, it also means a very large ship... which partially eliminates the reason why one would want such a craft in the first place. It's more important for space "tugs"/"ferries" which take many trips, and for outer-planets missions. And note that there are many alternatives to VASIMR.

      And please, you do a discredit to yourself by adding "or those EM drives".

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    3. Re: Mars isn't going anywhere. by JockTroll · · Score: 5, Funny

      Look, dating the Moon is freaking hard. She's lunatic every darn month. Moreover, she's got a hidden side to her. I'll tell you, the Moon is a harsh mistress.

      --
      Geeks are so full of shit that "beating the crap out of them" takes a whole new meaning.
    4. Re:Mars isn't going anywhere. by Kjella · · Score: 2

      Because... why? Mars is the furthest where it makes sense to send humans and we know from the ISS that artificial gravity and growing food is overkill for trips of that length. The next viable target would be an Earth-like exoplanet somewhere 4+ light years away that your "real ship" would take many thousands of years to reach.

      --
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    5. Re:Mars isn't going anywhere. by jimtheowl · · Score: 2

      Ceres is further than Mars and might be an even better target. It has the added bonus of being a smaller gravity well.

    6. Re:Mars isn't going anywhere. by inasity_rules · · Score: 2

      Galactic Cosmic Rays, for everyone else who had no clue why we needed to shield our Global Credit Rating.

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    7. Re:Mars isn't going anywhere. by dotancohen · · Score: 4, Interesting

      ...many of the same challenges:

      Temperature extremes, radiation, micro-meteorites (common to any space mission, I suppose). Needing to lift gear much further up than a 300~400 km low orbit. Actually succeeding in landing that gear undamaged. Gravity - but lower than on Earth. Redundant and/or extremely reliable life support systems, since Earth will be 'close' but still too far away for actual emergencies.

      Not at all the same. Due to having an atmosphere, almost all those parameters are vastly different. The temperature extremes are not nearly as extreme on Mars, there is (slightly) less radiation, and almost no micro-meteorites. There is no 'landing' on Mars like with the moon, but rather EDL (Entry, Descent, Landing) as on Earth. That is actually much more difficult than landing on the moon: the atmosphere really isn't thick enough for parachuting a large mass, but too thick to light a retro rocket at high speed. I suspect that this is one of the reasons that SpaceX ignite a retrorocket on landing the Falcon 9 first stage: to practice doing so for a Mars mission. Also, Mars has twice the gravity of the moon, which will bear in ways that we don't know yet on astronaut's physiology.

      Other than the "getting there" stage, Mars will be much easier to colonize than the moon. And the "getting there" challenges are surmountable with current technology, the "living there" challenges are much, much more difficult.

      --
      It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong.
    8. Re:Mars isn't going anywhere. by taiwanjohn · · Score: 2

      the atmosphere really is .... too thick to light a retro rocket at high speed.

      SpaceX claims that their SuperDraco thrusters are capable of igniting during Mars EDL, at supersonic speeds. Of course, we won't know for sure until they actually do it, but given their accomplishments to date, I see no reason to doubt them.

      --
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  4. One huge problem still by Tablizer · · Score: 2

    How do we guarantee we don't contaminate Mars and vice versa? The risk of bringing back a deadly disease is not zero. Suppose Mars has prions or something we have no immunity for?

    I agree it's a small chance, but also a potential civilization-killing chance.

    1. Re:One huge problem still by m.alessandrini · · Score: 2

      Probes and rovers have found no visible signs of organic substances. Anyway, I say: let's contaminate it! If we are afraid of altering even a little bit of another planet we'll never go anywhere. Let's start a massive terraforming program and make Mars habitable to a minimum, I think it's the only hope to find possible signs of past life or other important discoveries, much more than leaving it as it is.

    2. Re:One huge problem still by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      While we're undertaking the timely and expensive process of terraforming a dead planet I hope we divert a little effort into protecting the one we're currently inhabiting ;)

    3. Re:One huge problem still by cfalcon · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I wish you were modded up because you are interesting, but you are oh so wrong.

      Prions are scary because they don't seem to have a solution- like Ice-9 in Cat's Cradle, they convert everything that is like them, into them, until nothing is left. But, they require full biological access- you pretty much have to eat them in order for them to be permitted access to the things that are "mostly" like themselves. In many other places, the immune system would be able to stop them (for instance, cell membranes), because they would recognizably change the surface You couldn't ruin yourself by just inhaling a prion, like you could a virus.

      A virus is probably more likely as a threat, and we (maybe) understand how unlikely it would be that a virus capable of infecting humans would be on Mars.

      Your post also has an interesting implication- it implies that the "Great Filter" is that a terrible anti-life thing evolves faster than defenses for it can, in most situations. It hypothesizes (whether you did or not) that life on Mars both existed, and met its end at the end of some molecular grim reaper, that we risk contaminating Earth with. I would argue that such a Grim Reaper (molecule or construct) would have reached Earth at some point already- and if not, that we would likely find such a Grim Reaper on pretty much ANY planet we looked, and were just spared for no reason. This seems unlikely (but interesting).

      Finally on the "Mars contaminates us" point, it is MUCH more likely that we find something inimical to human life here on Earth- for instance, very deep in an ocean, or near the top of a mountain, or buried in ice. Do you raise your FUD Flag against such a threat? Or is it only confined to space travel? Reminder: Our species will ultimately go extinct without space travel- this is a fact!

      On your other point- "we contaminate Mars"- fucking fine. There's nothing amazing on Mars right now, life-wise, and if there is, we can keep it in a tiny Mars zoo. It's totally worthless to dedicate a whole planet to whatever random bacteria Mars happens to host right now, if indeed it hosts anything. A few score petri dishes will do nicely.

  5. Will there be a profit this quarter? by EzInKy · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Sad to say, that has become the U.S.'s battle cry. Unless an immediate short term profit can be had the funding should be put elsewhere. Let the next guy worry about investing in the future, I need my profits now!China, on the other hand, has a history of investing for long term gains. They are a much more patient people,

    --
    Time is what keeps everything from happening all at once.
  6. Asking the wrong question by Required+Snark · · Score: 3, Informative
    It's not how close we are. It's how much money we're willing to spend to get there.

    My guess is that absent any major change on this planet, no group or combination of groups that has enough money is willing to spend it on the trip.

    So the answer is far away.

    --
    Why is Snark Required?
  7. Re:Still far by Maritz · · Score: 4, Funny

    Humans are still more concerned with blow each other than exploring other planets.

    Too bad your typo isn't true. But yes. Humanity is not the space-faring species we are looking for.

    --
    I do not want your cheap brainburning drugs. They are useless for work. And I am a working man today.
  8. Profit and robotics by DThorne · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I'm a guy who stared up, glassy eyed (mostly because I was a kid in the middle of a serious sunstroke) as Armstrong stepped down that ladder, I had my plastic model of the Saturn V and scrapbook after scrapbook of the Apollo missions,so I guess you could call me a fan of exploration, science, engineering - all the things that had to come together for that moment to happen, but I honestly think those days are gone or at least disappearing. Two things end up driving exploration - a romantic ideal of the need to know, and the chance for someone to make a whack of cash. I think like after the "discovery" of North America, it's the investors that will drive the future of space. Nobody with any control over the sort of money this is going to cost believes that we are genuinely on the edge of destroying Earth - no "Interstellar scenario" is forthcoming - so what it will end up being is profit. Mining, most likely. As robotics advances the arguments are fewer and fewer for putting humans in harm's way. Maybe Mars will end up being on the list, my bet is the asteroid belt, though.

  9. Commercial colony on the moon first by SkunkPussy · · Score: 2

    Sending people to Mars is aspirational, but ridiculous. We need to find a commercial basis for a self-sustaining colony on the moon first. Once we have a self-sustaining colony on the moon, that is somehow able to support itself commercially, sending people to Mars will be more achievable.

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    SURELY NOT!!!!!
  10. Fission in space by sjbe · · Score: 2

    Attempting anything at scale in space with chemical rocketry is utterly foolish.

    While I generally agree, we don't have anything else at present nor does there appear to be any promising replacements in the near future outside of a few corner cases. We have NOTHING else to get us out of Earth's atmosphere. Until we come up with an alternative for getting into space that is economical and has a similar safety record we're going to be using chemical rockets. While I'm hopeful we can develop something clever one day, I'm realistic that it is going to be a while. Probably longer than my remaining lifespan.

    Also, even if we put people on Mars, they need a dense, compact, and reliable source of power. Nothing but nuclear engines and reactors even remotely fit the demanding requirements for long-term space activites.

    I think we need to figure out how to get there first without it being a suicide mission. Other than RTGs we don't currently have any reactor designs that are ready for space travel and none are being seriously worked on to my knowledge.

    A molten salt reactor can be made compact enough to power an airplane, and would be suitable for use in a Mars colony, providing electricity, heat, and production of chemical fuels.

    Did you read your link? They never got a system that powered an aircraft. Yes we could probably design a fission reactor that could power a Mars colony and we could probably get it there. Furthermore how do you know that a molten salt reactor is an appropriate design for space or for use on Mars? There could be lots of better designs. But there are a LOT of problems to solve before that that are a LOT harder, including designing a (safe) reactor for the trip there and getting to Earth orbit economically and designing the life support systems to keep people alive and healthy for the journey.

  11. Re: Why is /. so infested now with... by Jhon · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "Except going to Mars is propaganda and not science. "

    Actually it's both -- and more. Is the goal to JUST send robots to probe our solar system? Or to actually make a human presence? I believe the latter and I believe it's important for many reasons which should be obvious.

  12. Moon *now*, Mars *later*, damnit! by kheldan · · Score: 2

    We need to go back to the Moon first, set up a colony there, and build infrastructure there to support further exploration of the solar system! Why? Number One, because we can make all our inevitable mistakes a few days from Earth, where we'll have an opportunity to handle them without everyone dying, and Number Two, if there are launch facilities on the Moon, it'll be that much easier in the long run to get to places like Mars and the asteroid belt, than having to use up all the delta-v necessary to boost out of Earth's gravity well, that's why.

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  13. Re: Why is /. so infested now with... by blue9steel · · Score: 2

    No scientific value in sending man to Mars.

    That's not true. You could argue that much of the science could be done cheaper another way, but it does have value.

  14. Probes can't teach you about us by sjbe · · Score: 3

    Except going to Mars is propaganda and not science. No scientific value in sending man to Mars.

    That's not true at all. We would learn a tremendous amount from sending a man to Mars. There would have to be great advances in medicine, agriculture, life support, power, shielding, and much more. Much of it would be technology we are unlikely to develop any other way. We would learn a tremendous amount by sending a man to Mars or even to the Moon.

    Lots of scientific value sending probes and what not to explore the galaxy. Cheaper too.

    Of course there is value in probes. But there are things you cannot learn by sending probes. That's like saying you can learn everything about Earth by using satellites and ROVs. It simply isn't true. You cannot learn anything about human physiology for one. You learn nothing about life (ours or alien) in these remote places. Probes have their value but the idea that they can completely replace sending people is absurd.