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How Bad of a World Are We Really Living In Right Now?

Posted by timothy on from the best-of-all-possible dept.

New submitter Y.A.A.P. writes: Slate has a surprisingly relevant article of the state of the world today. A reasonable number of graphs and statistical comparisons show that our world is more peaceful than it has been for a long time. The article tells us that, despite what most news outlets (and political candidates) tell us, The World Is Not Falling Apart. Well, not from violence, at least.

5 of 210 comments (clear)

  1. It just seems bad because of the news cycle. by davester666 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The news started with
    "these are the 5 worst things that happened in our city"
    then it became
    "these are the 5 worst things that happened in our state"
    then
    "these are the 5 worst things that happened in our country"
    and now it's
    "these are the 5 worst things that happened on the planet"

    And every day, somewhere, something really bad happened.

    And people have trouble determining how likely that event is going to happen to them anytime soon [normally, a lottery ticket is more likely to hit].

    --
    Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
    1. Re:It just seems bad because of the news cycle. by AthanasiusKircher · · Score: 5, Insightful

      And every day, somewhere, something really bad happened.

      And people have trouble determining how likely that event is going to happen to them anytime soon [normally, a lottery ticket is more likely to hit].

      Yes, or evaluating the chances of dying a plane crash vs. a car. (Driving your car is a LOT more dangerous.) Or the probability of a terrorist event. Etc.

      People are really bad about evaluating probability, and our fears are shaped by whatever the news media can dig up about the scariest things going on.

      I agree with a lot of TFA, though what's missing is the LONG-term perspective. There's a lot of graphs from the late 20th-century on showing how things (particularly violence) are trending downward, but I still remember the first time I saw a graph of the estimated murder rate over the past few centuries. Hint -- it has basically dropped pretty precipitously since the days of medieval Europe.

      Granted, the numbers are more speculative, but I think most people just have no freakin' clue how dangerous and terrible life was in the past. Everybody wants to pretend to be the "lord and lady" at the Renaissance fair, but the reality for most common folk was that you struggled to grow enough food to survive the winter. Every year. You were lucky if even half of your children survived to adulthood.

      And in those sorts of life-and-death situations, life was -- frankly -- "cheaper" than today. You could get a finger or hand cut off in a random bar fight or a street brawl. If you committing anything resembling a crime, the authorities would likely do it for you. If you tried to leave town, you were very likely to be robbed, stripped, raped, or killed by random "highwaymen."

      The trend toward improvement has continued through most of the 20th century and into our current one. Trust me -- you do NOT want to live in a poor urban center of the early 1900s compared to one today. A lot of violence is down compared to a generation or two ago, and it's certainly a heck of a lot better than it was several generations ago. Yes, kids used to roam the street without care late at night or whatever "back in the day," but they were much, much more likely to abducted or suffer a violent attack or whatever back then than they are today. The "golden age" which people are nostalgic for never existed.

      What has changed is that we are more fearful of certain things, NOT that such things (in most cases) have actually gotten worse.

  2. Things are looking up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The truth is we are living during the safest, most prosperous times in human history.
    The media gives us a (false) perception that the world is collapsing under war, civil unrest and terrorism. The reality is that now, more than ever before, people are more likely to die form old age than from a violent death.
    Crime is down worldwide. So is hunger, war, rape and genocide.
    The world is far from perfect and the Syrian crisis is very real and should not be minimized. But as tragic as things are in the Middle East, what is happening there is the exception, not the rule.

  3. Coincidentally by Pollux · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I just finished watching the movie Tomorrowland yesterday. It was a bit of a let-down ... good acting, but the story made the movie weaker than it should have been.

    But, hidden within it was this very insightful gem:

    "In every moment, there is the possibility of a better future. But you people won't believe it. And because you won't believe it, you won't do what is necessary to make it a reality. So you dwell on this all-terrible future and resign yourselves to it for one reason: Because that future doesn't ask anything of you today." -- David Nix / Hugh Laurie

    We like being pessimists when it comes to our future. When we imagine a brighter future, then we are responsible for doing what is necessary to create it. But when we imagine a bleaker future, there's nothing we have to do to make it a reality. We can just live as hedonists until our passing.

  4. Re:Percentages vs raw numbers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If you have a single serial killer and your population doubles you are doing better, because statistically society should have produced a second serial killer. Each person's odds of being killed by a serial killer have dropped by 50%. I'm not sure in what way you think that's a bad thing.