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NASA 'Moving On' From Low-Earth Orbit (arstechnica.com)

An anonymous reader writes: NASA has issued a warning to private space companies: the agency is moving on from its focus on low-Earth orbit. William Gerstenmaier, chief of human spaceflight, said, "We're going to get out of ISS as quickly as we can. Whether it gets filled in by the private sector or not, NASA's vision is we're trying to move out." This leaves a void for the private companies building rockets to supply the ISS. "NASA says it would like to see the private space industry "take over" low-Earth orbit, although it acknowledges that any successor space station or orbiting module will be far smaller than the $140 billion space station, a collaboration between 15 countries. The message from NASA to the US industry is simple: we're serious about the commercialization of low-Earth orbit, we have this marvelous facility available with unique capabilities, and we want you to use the heck out of it."

33 of 118 comments (clear)

  1. What for? by JaredOfEuropa · · Score: 4, Interesting

    It's a nice idea: commercial space exploration. But what are commercial, for-profit companies supposed to do in LEO? Space tourism, maybe some very specific R&D that requires freefall, but other than that?

    --
    If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...
    1. Re:What for? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

      Um, communications infrastructure?

      Radio astronomy?

      Surveillance?

      It's ALREADY a multi-billion dollar industry.

    2. Re:What for? by JaredOfEuropa · · Score: 2

      That's satellites. What are they going to do on the space station?

      --
      If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...
    3. Re:What for? by slack_justyb · · Score: 2

      To quote someone at some point, "It's not about what we can think of now, but what someone down the line will think up of later." But that aside, I can think of a few, though I can't specifically speak about the marketability of these.

      LEO could be a staging point or a point of operation for energy production. Solar panels in space do collect more energy than those on Earth. The caveat being transmission from LEO or higher to ground.

      Communications and all that fun jazz come to mind as well. While LEO may just be the staging point in global communications, cheap and less government entangled LEO could be the impetus to drive this industry. It's kind of a hit or miss, I won't lie. But companies seem to be all gung-ho when there is less red-tape involved.

      Tourism as you pointed out. Let us not forget the almighty power of tourism.

      Trash collection, if you can make a market out of it... Let's face it trash in space is a literal mess. Imagine some young hipster type pitching the idea of LEO clean up. Few might bite, but it still could generate some cash for someone.

      Going out further. LEO could become a pretty busy place if it's a little more well kept and there are several services for getting your payload up there. That could include anyone wanting to build a company on go outside of LEO (those folks that want to mine the asteroid belt, come to mind).

      However, I'll say that it is a bit hard to think of what value opening up LEO for the public would provide. But I would argue that the value is most definitely a non-zero value. So I hope my spattering of ideas provides some level of creativity but I'd side with you on the big shoulder shrug on what *exactly* it could provide.

    4. Re:What for? by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 4, Informative

      collect more energy than those on Earth

      They collect (1366/1006)*(24/6) times more energy (5.46x). To be economically viable, hey can't be more than 5.46x more than ground based systems that are currently under $1/watt, so you have to put a system in place for about $4-5wp. Good luck.

    5. Re:What for? by Rei · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Sun-tracking systems can get higher capacity factors than 25%, you're being pessimistic with your earth figures and optimistic with your space figures ;)

      --
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    6. Re:What for? by rraylion · · Score: 2

      Energy production should not take place in LEO -- reason being is that you move too fast in LEO to send energy anywhere consistently. if you were going to put say solar collectors in space you need to go all the way up to geo sync orbit so that you can hit a ground station receiver all the time.

    7. Re:What for? by Nidi62 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      What about using LEO as a jumping off/assembly point? Obviously a lot of companies are interested in exploiting possible resources in space. By using a structure in LEO, couldn't you maximize efficiency by pre-launching supplies and materials in a way that maximizes payloads and reduces the number of launches necessary? Take the ISS and modify it to store consumables such as food, water, and fuel, and then send up any vehicles in stages for assembly and stocking in orbit. A small crew stationed on the ISS can assemble everything, then either use them to man the mission or send up a final flight with crew and any last minute cargo (experiments, low stock items or perishables, any needed spare parts, etc). Obviously I am not well versed on the economy of space launches, but it stands to reason that there a point where the ratio between cost and mass is most efficient, and this would allow you to harness that efficiency.

      --
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    8. Re:What for? by mrchaotica · · Score: 2

      Nah, LEO is better because then it can give the Earth lovely cross-hatched grill marks!

      --

      "[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz

    9. Re:What for? by bitingduck · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Fiber isn't that useful on a boat in the middle of the ocean.

    10. Re:What for? by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 2

      you're being pessimistic with your earth figures and optimistic with your space figures

      Yes I was being conservative and it still shows that space solar is not economically competitive with ground based.

      That aside, Sun-tracking systems are not economically competitive with fixed mounts. Theoretical maximum increase by 41% has to be less expensive than adding 41% more panels. Not even close.

  2. The message is garbled. by xxxJonBoyxxx · · Score: 2

    >> NASA...acknowledges that any successor space station or orbiting module will be far smaller than the $140 billion space station...message from NASA to the US industry is simple: ...we have this marvelous facility available with unique capabilities, and we want you to use the heck out of it."

    So...are you selling off taxpayers' $140B investment for pennies on the dollar or are you going to deorbit the existing spacestation and prod private industry to replace it when it's gone?

    1. Re:The message is garbled. by CanadianMacFan · · Score: 2

      By 2024 the first modules of the ISS will be closing in to their expected end of life. While they won't immediately fail it does mean that the chances of seals or equipment failing start to rise past acceptable tolerances.

      I would like to see replacement modules created and sent up. Any salvageable equipment from the old module should be saved and installed in the new module to help reduce costs (mostly those to lift it to orbit). However it seems unlikely to happen as budgets are small and interests from all space agencies are on other goals.

    2. Re:The message is garbled. by k6mfw · · Score: 2

      Shortly after orbiter Columbia crashed in 2003, (story I heard) Paul Shawcross and others at NASA HQ pushed proposal to not return Shuttle to flight, de-orbit the space station, cut NASA budget in half, and focus remaining NASA to develop new technology (i.e. put a end to HSF as program was not developing anything new). Obviously that didn't happen. But wait, NASA was in same situation in 1969/1970/1971 when looking for "the next big thing" after Apollo. Space budgets were being slashed, proposed Mars mission, lunar base, and space station was removed from any planning. Top men at NASA were trying to come up with a shuttle design that OMB will approve its budget (Dale Myers said in a lecture at MIT in 2005), it looked like manned space flight for US will end after Skylab as even Apollo/Soyuz was not approved. Finally Shuttle was approved as it was election year and Nixon needed electoral votes from Calif and Florida (aerospace industries took a heavy beating and lots of layoffs). President told OMB to approve Shuttle. I sometimes wonder what if things turned out otherwise.

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    3. Re:The message is garbled. by crunchygranola · · Score: 2

      The fix was in for the Space Shuttle. It was intended from the beginning to be a military program, but operating under the cover (and appropriating the budget) of the civilian space program. The payload specs (weight, bay size), the whole winged flight thing (turning it into a deadly dangerous system for the crew), the overall system specs to make it capable of a polar launch from Vandenburg (never used), all of these were military requirements, not driven by any civilian needs.

      All that stuff about cutting launch costs by having a system that could launch once a week? The original claimed development schedule and budget (both greatly exceeded)? How could the engineers have been so wrong?

      They weren't wrong. The shuttle capabilities, budget and schedule all met the real, secret, objectives. All the other stuff were made up cover stories to maintain Congressional support.

      There was no way the shuttle was not going to get approved. The military got what the military wanted. In the end, for all that 200 billion in program costs, they only used it 11 times.

      --
      Second class citizen of the New Gilded Age
    4. Re:The message is garbled. by k6mfw · · Score: 2

      ah yes, the big wings for 1500 mile cross track ability (or whatever term) for single orbit from Vandenberg, deploy satellite and land. Or better yet, grab a Soviet "bird." But when Challenger blew up and Titan down for the count, Space Command was in a bind with no way to put up a recon satellite. Whatever the case may be, those orbiters sure looked cool in space, and with those big windows! Actually engineers were not "wrong" it was overall management had to oversell the program which has always been the case. I believe exception was Apollo program when James Webb took the estimates of $12B and doubled it with a little padding.

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      mfwright@batnet.com
    5. Re:The message is garbled. by Rei · · Score: 2

      It's interesting to look at why they were planning on such a big launch rate. NASA's operating assumptions were on the continuation of Apollo-era budgets. They were envisioning first reboosting, refursbishing, and expanding Skylab, then two new huge projects coming online: a permanent moon base, with rotating crews, and a huge, 50-man orbital space base, with the Shuttle in its proposed "space bus" configuration wherein the cargo bay would be converted to a people carrier, like a space jetliner. There would have been constant needs to ferry crew, supplies and huge numbers of modules and boosters for each of these projects

      As soon as the budgets came crashing back to Earth (in part due to the Vietnam War, although it really was inevitable), the Shuttle concept was pretty much doomed. Even if everything technologically had worked out as hoped (unlike all of the difficulties that it actually faced), the combination of significantly reduced development budgets (meaning far less "flyback", having to take the USAF design compromises, and higher-maintenance design elements (for example, aluminum frame instead of titanium, meaning you have to be far better at getting rid of heat, meaning sensitive tiles)) and significantly reduced launch rates made it clear it was never going to be a cost-effective system. The original concept really wasn't bad. The Soviets felt it was an important enough of a system that they felt the need to copycat with Buran it so that the US wouldn't have a system that they didn't. But ultimately the assumptions that led to its construction were not to live up to reality.

      --
      Nothing says 'welcome to the neighborhood' like a gunny sack full of dead squirrels.
  3. Interesting implications for diplomacy by Bovius · · Score: 2

    The USA's continued cooperation with Russia on the ISS mission has been one of the many things that keeps me assured that we're not going to just completely devolve into war, because nobody wants to come to blows over that particular asset. And now we're trying to get out of ISS involvement "as quickly as we can."

    Wow.

    1. Re:Interesting implications for diplomacy by k6mfw · · Score: 2

      I second your feelings on this. ISS has been a huge Peace Dividend. I wonder when in 1990s when we had an air war in Kosovo which also relations with Russia significantly deteriorated but we never got into a shooting war with them (all this was in same area of their former Warsaw Pact allies), maybe it was ISS program that prevented Kosovo spreading beyond like in WWI.

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      mfwright@batnet.com
  4. Re:How about moving from corporate welfare... by GLMDesigns · · Score: 2

    What is the difference between legitimate government expense and corporate welfare to you?

    And - don't corporations sell food? So isn't feeding children corporate welfare? Or is corporate welfare just a slogan you fling out when you disagree with the expenditure?

    --
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  5. Re:Not a lot of commercial use cases. by Rei · · Score: 2

    There's tons of reasons for private industry to go to LEO: satellite launches. Now, as for ISS.... that's a bigger question. If it were low cost to free I imagine Bigelow might have interest in it as a space hotel module; it has a lot of hardware that could be useful even if it's not as roomy as his ultimate plans call for. But Bigelow is still waiting on crewed Dragon and Falcon Heavy. They are planning to use ISS shortly to test a prototype of one of their inflatable modules. So maybe there's someone who'd be willing to keep it stocked and reboosted...

    If nobody is interested and NASA really is keen on abandoning it, I'd hope that they'd launch a final mission to boost it into a high orbit before doing so so that it doesn't reenter any time soon. There's a lot of good hardware up there.

    --
    Nothing says 'welcome to the neighborhood' like a gunny sack full of dead squirrels.
  6. Re:How about moving from corporate welfare... by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 2

    Like farm subsidies?

  7. Fantastic! by cyn1c77 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    This is actually great news for many who were pro-space exploration.

    After their wildly successful lunar missions, NASA got stuck in LEO decades ago and has never been able to escape. It's continuously drained all of their money and talent into stationkeeping for the US military and corporations and eliminated the possibility of human exploration in space.

    Ultimately, I think this is just gamesmanship. The government won't let NASA completely abandon LEO, it's really a strategic asset. However, they may have to cough up more funding or split the agency to support both LEO efforts and actual space exploration. That is likely what NASA wants.

  8. Re:Not a lot of commercial use cases. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "Also zero gravity ball bearings"

    This particular pile of dung has been repeated since the 1960s. It made no sense then, it makes no sense today. We are already able to make atomically perfect spheres right here on Earth. Oops, so sorry, technology got better and we don't need your antique space dreams.

    "art"

    You're shitting me?

    "biology research in 30 categories"

    See above. Technology gets better, we don't need your space fantasies anymore.

    " preparing to exploit asteroids"

    Beyond delusional.

    "crystal growth"

    May I point out we are perfectly able to not only make atomically perfect speres right here already, but IC fabs are doing just fine, thanks.

    The rest of your list sounds like a Tim & Eric sketch.

    "This is the list of the things I like, IN SPACE!!"

    Your sad devotion to ancient space religions is as tragic as it is hilarious.

  9. Re:Collecting Money Is For Cows by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Did you hear about the group of cows that NASA wanted to send into low earth orbit?

    It was the herd shot round the world.

  10. Re:How about moving from corporate welfare... by MachineShedFred · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Yeah, because absolutely no good has come from NASA, ever. Absolutely no materials science or technology that allows for more efficient food production to "feed the children". Definitely not things like weather satellites or GPS - those are complete boondoggles that have absolutely no effect on modern agriculture.

    People like you would still have us using oxen to plow fields, and then bitch that so many still go hungry.

    --
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  11. Re:NASA's mission... by MightyYar · · Score: 2

    Yeah, those robotic missions to the outer planets probably would just happen on their own.

    --
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  12. Actually this is a good idea. by CaptnCrud · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The less red tape needed to just use the thing the more use it will get. Part of the reason the ISS is so ridiculously over budgets is because of all the BS redundancy and BS "safe" tech high-pork approach (as in, scared to use fancy new things like "kevlar" and "carbon fiber", or scary words like "inflatables"....but lets keep using laptops from 15 years ago because they are COTS approved.).

    As someone who used to work there, all I can say is NASA is often NASA's worst enemy....budget issues aside.

  13. Re:Not a lot of commercial use cases. by Coren22 · · Score: 2

    If nobody is interested and NASA really is keen on abandoning it, I'd hope that they'd launch a final mission to boost it into a high orbit before doing so so that it doesn't reenter any time soon. There's a lot of good hardware up there.

    Unfortunately the seals between modules are deteriorating, it won't stay pressurized for much longer, and once depressurized, I am not sure how much of the technology will be useful.

    --
    APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
  14. Re: ISS has been a waste of time by Redbehrend · · Score: 2

    As someone that has worked with NASA and JPL I can tell you they are not very effective and need the reconstruction. It takes forever for anything to get done lol BTW did you see the about 10 times before Obama where they needed money and almost went under. Yea... I love NASA I just feel they need to stop being stubborn and evolve. The fact the private sector is moving at least three times as fast shows that.

  15. More than Fantastic! by nucrash · · Score: 2

    Various experiments have taught us what the effects of micro gravity on humans as well as several other species. Just this year, we have started to grow and consume food in space. We are trying to get more species up there and for longer iterations. These studies allow us to extrapolate what potential long term effects of micro gravity will have as we try to explore other planets and asteroids. I look forward to continued experimentation and exploration.

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    Place something witty here
  16. Not Moving on Until September 2024! by Irate+Engineer · · Score: 3, Informative

    The recent Commercial Space Bill mandates that NASA maintains the ISS as a "viable and productive facility capable of potential U.S. utilization through at least 30 September 2024".

    Moving on is hard to do sometimes.

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  17. Re:Not a lot of commercial use cases. by Megane · · Score: 2

    If ISS ever gets VASIMR installed, it shouldn't need boost missions.

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