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Can Electric Signals In Earth's Atmosphere Predict Earthquakes? (sciencemag.org)

sciencehabit writes with interesting news about a possible new avenue for earthquake prediction. Sciencemag reports: "Ask seismologists when they'll be able to predict earthquakes, and the answer is generally: sometime between the distant future and never. Although there have been some promising leads over the years, the history of earthquake forecasting is littered with false starts and pseudoscience. However, some scientists think that Earth's crust may give hints before it ruptures, in the form of electromagnetic anomalies in the ground and atmosphere that occur minutes to days before an earthquake. Now, researchers are sharing their evolving understanding of these phenomena—and how they might be used to predict deadly quakes."

71 comments

  1. Not Bloody Likely by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 0

    Another question being put forth as some sort of possibility.... sorry, no evidence to support this at all and it doesn't even pass the common sense test.

    1. Re:Not Bloody Likely by The-Ixian · · Score: 3, Informative

      Well. That is what I was thinking too. But in TFA they reference a couple of occurrences which appear to already be known:

      lights just prior to earthquakes

      and

      [...] the reported tendency for compass needles to dance around.

      So, it sounds like electrical activity is something that is sometimes known to happen just prior to an earthquake.

      Weird that now there is all of a sudden an "aha!" moment.

      --
      My eyes reflect the stars and a smile lights up my face.
    2. Re:Not Bloody Likely by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It definitely passes the "sounds like all the other pseudoscience they mentioned" test, though.

    3. Re:Not Bloody Likely by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 0

      That just looks like more of the same to me. You get all kinds of reports, animals acting funny, strange feelings, but there is still no recorded observation. If this were a clearly linked phenomena, it would most likely have been scientifically observed already.

    4. Re:Not Bloody Likely by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Then you're not very smart. You ever heard of the piezoelectric effect?

      Here's another thing that doesn't pass the "shitbrain" test:

      The Sun has a magnetic field, and we are orbiting inside of it. This is a generator, therefore there are currents in the Earth's crust.

      Can you figure this out with that handicapped oyster that's sitting in your skull?

    5. Re:Not Bloody Likely by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You get all kinds of reports, animals acting funny, strange feelings, but there is still no recorded observation.

      What the fuck do you think a "report" is?! It's the "recorded observation" you're demanding, for crying out loud!

    6. Re:Not Bloody Likely by mikael · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Electric currents are known to travel underground. There's also the piezoelectric effect where crystals put under strain can generate electric currents and thus magnetic fields. Combine that with rock being heated under pressure then snapping due to the earthquake, then it's not to hard to imagine that magnetic field lines would be reconnecting in the way that solar flares do.

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    7. Re:Not Bloody Likely by mmell · · Score: 2
      Oh, like a lie detector for the Earth!

      We all know how reliable those are.

    8. Re:Not Bloody Likely by vel-ex-tech · · Score: 1

      The Sun has a magnetic field, and we are orbiting inside of it.

      Citation provided. Huh, seems obvious in hindsight but I guess I never thought about it very much. More info (update to that link: solar maximum was 2014).

    9. Re:Not Bloody Likely by NormalVisual · · Score: 1

      If this were a clearly linked phenomena, it would most likely have been scientifically observed already.

      It sounds to me kind of like the situation with rogue waves. They were reported by sailors for centuries, and despite this many scientists still expressed skepticism that they actually existed until 1995 when one was recorded with instrumentation. They've since been found all over the place now that we can examine huge swaths of the oceans. Previously it was sheer luck if you were there when one spawned.

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    10. Re:Not Bloody Likely by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, you could teach a thing or ten million to Mr D and his acolyte Coren22....

    11. Re:Not Bloody Likely by Ungrounded+Lightning · · Score: 1

      Electric currents are known to travel underground. There's also the piezoelectric effect where crystals put under strain can generate electric currents and thus magnetic fields.

      Under stress, actually. And producing very high voltage electric fields. So the impedance is very high, allowing small currents through even high resistances to transfer large amounts of energy, potentially for long distances.

      (It's almost Tesla style.)

      I've wondered for decades (since first hearing about "earthquake lights") whether:
        - Continental drift stresses on piezoelectic minerals might create such electric fields
        - the CHANGES in stresses during earthquakes (and their foreshocks) might create strong electric fields deltas and associated electrical, radio, and visual phenomena
        - minute, but high voltage, currents through conductive material (such as water in a fault) might carry the energy, at electrical speeds, to piezoelectric rocks in other locations, to be transduced back into large forces that might, in turn, affect the release of faults and/or the propagation of rips in them (and among nearby fault systems)
        - these electrical phenomena might be measured, or detected as ultra-low-frequency ground currents or radio waves.
        - externally applied high voltages might also flex piezoelectric minerals, allowing triggering of quakes by things like lightning strikes or even human intervention.

      The energy involved in an earthquake's stress relief is on the order of, to a few orders greater than, that of very large nuclear bombs. There's a LOT of deposits of piezo materials down there - notably quartz - often with very large crystals to provide similarly-oriented force/voltage transduction, rather than randomly-directed forces or electrical potential vectors. If even a tiny amount of an earthquake or foreshock's energy is transformed from mechanical stress changes to electrical signals, you're dealing with lightning-strike, or far greater, levels of electrical activity.

      --
      Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
    12. Re: Not Bloody Likely by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's right, because the reported height of the waves was higher than the theoretical maximum height of an ocean wave. I think the tool that got the first measurement was fixed to an oil rig, but they can now use sattelite a to track them - and they are more common than first thought.

    13. Re:Not Bloody Likely by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you get some sort of weird lights, electrical disturbances, dogs acting up or whatever and nothing happens then it's soon forgotten. If you get the same and a earthquake happens shortly after then everyone notices the coincidence and thinks they've found a correlation.

      It's a little like alternative medicine: people try all manner of weird shit, usually nothing happens, but when they see a few coincidental took a and b happened events they think "well then a must cause b".

      I'm not saying that there isn't a possible connection that might be worth considering, but given how many people have looked into this and found precisely nothing...

    14. Re:Not Bloody Likely by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're not saying anything, and your default position (that there is nothing to look at because a bunch of people must have looked at it before) is astonishingly dumb.

      So thanks.

    15. Re: Not Bloody Likely by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      High impedance does not enable large energy transfers. Quite the opposite.

    16. Re:Not Bloody Likely by Coren22 · · Score: 1

      What exactly makes me an acolyte to Mr D? When I posted, there were no visible comments, are you just jealous of us or something?

      Show me a graph of the "electrical field" for a week before, during, and a week after, and prove your position. Science doesn't work on intuition, that is mysiticism. If you feel so strongly about this, PROVE IT!

      --
      APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
    17. Re:Not Bloody Likely by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      OK, but you'll have about a century's worth of science to wade through first.

      http://www.nlvocables.com/images/telluric_current/telluric_current_map.gif

      These are the Earth currents flowing in the crust.

      "prove your position"

      We proved that the piezoelectric effect exists. I don't think there's a debate about that.

      You said "By what mechanism do they expect stresses in rocks to produce electric fields".

      What proof do you want of that? A 1960s record player with Rochelle salt pickup? Whether or not they predict earthquakes is another story, but YOU are the one who didn't even know about the piezoelectric effect!

      YOU are the moron. Show US that you graduated high school first. Either that, or you're a programmer, in which case we shouldn't pick on the mentally handicapped.

    18. Re: Not Bloody Likely by Ungrounded+Lightning · · Score: 1

      High impedance of the SOURCE DOES enable greater energy transfers through high impedance - including high resistance - of the channel.

      In this case that takes the form of a "found" channel of fixed, and high, impedance. A high voltage, low current, source will drive far more energy through that channel than a source that is capable of delivering the same amount of energy but only at a lower voltage and higher current. Impedance is voltage over current. If it weren't for breakdown (think arcing) the higher the voltage the more energy you send.

      Impedance is voltage over current. When applied to the energy source, impedance doesn't mean what the name would naively imply. Having a high impedance doesn't imply that the source has any losses at all.

      --
      Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
    19. Re:Not Bloody Likely by KGIII · · Score: 1

      Hmm... Name checks out!

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    20. Re:Not Bloody Likely by Coren22 · · Score: 1

      You know what, go make an account, then we can have this discussion. Until then, I will assume you are a troll and just trying to get a rise out of me. You are being intentionally ignorant and attacking, when there is no need. You are also arguing against a strawman you have created, which has none of my positions in it.

      --
      APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
  2. Can any headline ending in ? be answered with no? by StikyPad · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Yes.

  3. Can electric signals in Earth's atmosphere predict by Coren22 · · Score: 0

    No.

    By what mechanism do they expect stresses in rocks to produce electric fields?

    --
    APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
  4. sure they can. by turkeydance · · Score: 0

    in my experience, they predict lots of things. time for dinner.

  5. Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Correlation is not causation... or in this case, any chance that someone invented an earthquake machine and is using to it to cause quakes?

    1. Re:Correlation is not causation by techno-vampire · · Score: 1

      Yes. An Electric Earthquake machine was invented and used in 1942, but it was soon destroyed.

      --
      Good, inexpensive web hosting
  6. Solar Activity for detecting earthquakes by shubus · · Score: 1

    Solar activity should be considered a major contender for detecting earthquakes, ongoing research at SuspiciousObservers.org. Electrical activity in the earth's atmosphere is too little too late.

  7. Re:Can electric signals in Earth's atmosphere pred by The-Ixian · · Score: 1

    However, scientists have yet to agree on a mechanism by which the crust could create electromagnetic signals. One idea is that rocks can generate positive charges when heated or stressed in the build-up to an earthquake, says Friedemann Freund, an adjunct professor of physics at San Jose State University in California and a senior scientist at NASA’s Ames Research Center in Mountain View, California. “When you stress a rock, it turns into a battery,” Freund says. “Not an electrochemical battery that you find in your car, but a new type of semiconductor battery that produces electrons and holes.”

    These “holes” are positive charges that come from molecular defects known as peroxy bonds, which occur in most crystalline rocks and involve two oxygen atoms bonded together instead of to silicon or another element. At high temperatures and pressures, peroxy bonds break, causing them to pull in an electron from a neighboring atom, and leave behind a positively charged “hole.” This creates a chain reaction of electrons flowing toward the peroxy defect, effectively creating a cloud of positive charge flowing away, potentially to the surface and beyond.

    --
    My eyes reflect the stars and a smile lights up my face.
  8. Italy will jail Scientists for failing to use this by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 2
  9. Seems straightforward enough by Krishnoid · · Score: 1

    Just check on Lex Luthor's recent real estate purchases and make friends with his escrow agent. Shouldn't be too hard.

  10. Re:Can electric signals in Earth's atmosphere pred by Dan+East · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The mechanism by which stresses in rocks produce electric fields.

    Alex, what is piezoelectricity?

    --
    Better known as 318230.
  11. Piezo effect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The first thing I thought of was pressure fluctuations on naturally occurring piezoelectric crystals

  12. Re:Can any headline ending in ? be answered with n by avandesande · · Score: 2

    Perhaps we can trick Betteridge.... "Electric Signals In Earth's Atmosphere Predict Earthquakes, false or true?"

    --
    love is just extroverted narcissism
  13. Re:Can electric signals in Earth's atmosphere pred by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

    No.

    By what mechanism do they expect stresses in rocks to produce electric fields?

    There is a well known mechanism called the piezoelectric effect by which stress in a crystal produces an electrical field. Quartz, for example, is a well-known piezoelectric material...and also a component of igneous rock.

    So, it's not completely implausible.

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
  14. Like the Fire Swamp? by Irate+Engineer · · Score: 1

    The flame spurt - no problem. There's a popping sound preceding each; we can avoid that.

    --

    Left MS Windows for Linux Mint and never looked back!

    Vote for Bernie in 2016!

    1. Re:Like the Fire Swamp? by NormalVisual · · Score: 1

      The ROUS will get you every time though.

      --
      Please stand clear of the doors, por favor mantenganse alejado de las puertas
    2. Re:Like the Fire Swamp? by Irate+Engineer · · Score: 1

      The ROUS will get you every time though.

      Rodents of Unusual Size? I don't think they exist.

      --

      Left MS Windows for Linux Mint and never looked back!

      Vote for Bernie in 2016!

  15. But those Republucans... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    think u can do the same by praying.

    1. Re: But those Republucans... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's how they be.

    2. Re: But those Republucans... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Their kind hates science.

    3. Re: But those Republucans... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They want scientists to die.

    4. Re: But those Republucans... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They want people to die so they'll outlaw this.

    5. Re: But those Republucans... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      While they r killin scientists, they r so killn us 2.

    6. Re: But those Republucans... by Sardaukar86 · · Score: 1

      Fuck off with your infantile txt-speak and vacuous commentary.

      --
      ..Mullah or Pope, Preacher or Poet, who was it wrote: "Give any one species too much rope and they'll fuck it up"?
  16. piezoelectric effect by supernova87a · · Score: 4, Informative

    This has long been known, and as usual not super new news.

    Even in 1975 ("Haicheng Earthquake" ), schoolchildren who had been given electrical measurement kits began to detect unusual fluctuations in ground voltage. This earthquake is one of the few that have reasonably legitimately been claimed to have been predicted on the order of days in advance, with significant population lives saved by concrete action beforehand (could be fortuitous coincidence, but they definitely saw the warning signs -- and note that this earthquake is one of the many documented where animals foretold the earthquake through unusual activity).

    There have also been reports of the atmosphere turning purple/blue around the location of an impending earthquake, which is probably what led to the work here. What is new is some more consistent effort to try to detect the precursors.

    My uninformed interpretation of the phenomenon is that geophysical / piezoelectric stress in the rocks induces voltages/currents in the ground, which in turn cause atmospheric electrical effects that can be detected.

    1. Re:piezoelectric effect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      As a second data point, there was a whole bunch of sensitive radio receivers sitting on top of the epicenter of the Loma Prieta quake. When the data was examined, there were clear signals prior to the earthquake. A paper was published that said something like, we are not geologists. Here's our data. Enjoy.

      AFAIK, no one has gone from something happens to a system that can reliably predict earthquakes.

  17. Re:Can electric signals in Earth's atmosphere pred by wonkey_monkey · · Score: 1

    By what mechanism do they expect stresses in rocks to produce electric fields?

    By what mechanism have you come to the conclusion that it's impossible and the idea is immediately dismissable?

    Talk about argument from ignorance...

    --
    systemd is Roko's Basilisk.
  18. Quartz by jtara · · Score: 1

    By what mechanism do they expect stresses in rocks to produce electric fields?

    Quartz. Squeeze it, it creates a charge. The last 100 or so years of radio technology has depended on this. Earthly rocks got lots of it.

    But.... yawn... pretty sure I read this like 40 years ago in Popular Science or Popular Electronics or some such.

    Build an earthquake detector!

  19. Really quite simple... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Just look where the biggest concentration of CO2 is located - after all, it's blamed for all other ills of the Earth! So that must be it...

  20. Re:Can electric signals in Earth's atmosphere pred by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The piezoelectric effect, you nimrod high-school dropout.

  21. Re:Can electric signals in Earth's atmosphere pred by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The same mechanism that makes the piece of rock in your wristwatch oscillate. Are you as stupid and obnoxious as you appear to be?

  22. Some Scientific Background by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
  23. idea goes back decades by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    https://mitpress.mit.edu/index.php?q=books/when-snakes-awake
    When the Snakes Awake
    Animals and Earthquake Prediction
    By Helmut Tributsch
    1984

  24. Re:Can electric signals in Earth's atmosphere pred by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You should probably stop offering your opinion if you have no idea what you're talking about.

    Apply a current to a piece of quartz and it vibrates. Squeeze it and it generates a current.

    But you seem hell bent on sounding like an idiot, so you've succeeded.

  25. Light travels faster than sound by rossdee · · Score: 1

    so the electric signal of the quake will get to you faster than even the p-wave

    that would give birds time to fly up into the air, and people time to get into a doorway, but probably not enough time to get out of a really tall building
     

  26. Re:Can electric signals in Earth's atmosphere pred by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You're the exact type of complete fucking moron who would have argued that it is impossible to break the sound barrier or that man cannot reach the moon.

    There is no such thing as a vacuum or microorganism either.

    Please do us a favor, and stop communicating with people.

  27. Somebody watched San Andreas ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    .... and decided that all the crap in it was based on scientific fact.

  28. Re:Italy will jail Scientists for failing to use t by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    They do not need scientists: italian radio amateurs are very busy detecting radio signals emitted from earthquakes!

  29. Re:Can any headline ending in ? be answered with n by tinkerton · · Score: 1

    Watch it. You're messing with the fabric of space-time now.

  30. not nearly as well as... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not nearly as well as sheep's bladders.

  31. Re:Italy will jail Scientists for failing to use t by ctrl-alt-canc · · Score: 2

    Thank you for posting this. I have been considering getting back into ham radio after quitting it years ago, but given the stuff they are doing, for sure I will keep myself miles away from that!

  32. Re:Can electric signals in Earth's atmosphere pred by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So, are you going to apply your sig to yourself?

  33. HAARP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program

  34. Re:Can electric signals in Earth's atmosphere pred by XxtraLarGe · · Score: 1

    By what mechanism do they expect stresses in rocks to produce electric fields?

    All of this, and MORE can be explained by the Electric Universe Theory. Any gaps in EUT are filled in by TIMECUBE.

    It's been a long time since I've visited that site. Looks like they've had a major redesign.

    --
    Taking guns away from the 99% gives the 1% 100% of the power.
  35. Re:Can electric signals in Earth's atmosphere pred by Coren22 · · Score: 1

    Says the AC that apparently isn't even old enough to graduate yet.

    --
    APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
  36. Re:Can electric signals in Earth's atmosphere pred by Coren22 · · Score: 1

    Exactly!

    --
    APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
  37. Re:Italy will jail Scientists for failing to use t by Coren22 · · Score: 1

    It is good to hear they were cleared. That seemed like the politician/managers faithful fallback "someone must be to blame!" I hadn't heard about the outcome of the trial yet, thanks for the information.

    --
    APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
  38. Re:Can electric signals in Earth's atmosphere pred by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I knew about the piezoelectric effect before graduating high school, yes. Go back to your software, you thick-skulled autist.

    You *do* realize that by your own weak insult, you are admitting that a teenager knows more about the real world than you! You're not even smart enough to come up with an insult that doesn't blow up in your face!!

  39. over 40 years of prediction attempts by peter303 · · Score: 1

    When I was at Stanford in the 1970s there were several promising methods associated with at least one major earthquake. They included the Russian acoustic - shear velocity ratio which was supposed to change before earthquakes due to an increase in microcracks. The Chinese had two successes with farmyard animal anomalies, but missed the most costly Chinese quake in the 20th century, the Tianjin right at the doorstep of Beijing science academies. Heliem soil anomaly increases seemed promising too. The US funded studies in all these methods. But none ever really predicted another quake. "Prediction" became a nasty joke wordk on scientific resumes. The field dribbled on with more narrow problems such as early warning systems to give 30 seconds or so early notice of damaging seismic waves or tsunamis. And less rigorous "forecasting"- windows of increased probablity rather than a specific prediction.

    Yet the prediction effort sunders on. A Greek group claimed ground resistance anomalies associated with quakes, but no one could reproduce their results. A Stanford group saw a magnetic jump just before the large 1989 San Andreas quake, but this was never seen again in later quakes. A Russian group calimed their secretive "circles of probability" method predicted the same quake, but missed other quakes. And ionospheric anomalies, the topic of this slashdot, are startign to be looked at. All these methods have received some funding from government agencies, so its not like they are completely ignored. The USGS had a huge and expensive effort to instrument Parkfield California for a large quake which happens about every 20 years. The quake did happen a dozen years later than expected. There werent any promising anomaly signals.

    The most promising method still seems to be previous seismicity and fault mapping. These hint at the possible size and location of earthquakes. Its been known for a century that quakes tend to obey a size-frequency law. That means when you see a persistent swarm of small or medium quakes like in northwest Nevada, central Oklahoma, and eastern Tennessee, is this a sign of something larger to come?

    These seismicity data are are online in public databases for anyone to test their pet analysis theory on.

  40. Re:Can electric signals in Earth's atmosphere pred by Coren22 · · Score: 1

    I was merely pointing out that children use insults to belittle others. That or you never progressed socially since around middle school. So, the question is, who is acting more like an autist here? You insult someone you don't even know for no apparent reason, or me for pointing out your needless insults as coming from someone who is socially still in middle school.

    I knew about piezoelectric effect in high school too, wow, aren't we special together. But I don't go around throwing insults at others to make myself feel better, while you do.

    you nimrod high-school dropout.

    I point out your needless insults, and you think I am insulting you? It is only an insult because you think you are being insulted, instead realize you are the one acting abnormal here, and I am the one trying to have an adult conversation. Perhaps when you learn the difference, maybe you can join the adult table.

    --
    APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
  41. Earthquakes are Predictable: by SomeGoober · · Score: 1

    This group predicted 7 of the top 8 earthquakes during a 2 week test. https://youtu.be/lPjhaweEWXA/