US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Programmer Jobs Will Decline 8% (computerworld.com)

theodp writes: Two weeks ago, as the nation's schools 'taught kids to program' with an Hour of Code, Microsoft and others celebrated a 6-year lobbying effort that culminated in the passage of legislation that made Computer Science a core K-12 subject, which the software giant said "will advance some of the goals outlined in Microsoft's National Talent Strategy." But on Tuesday, Computerworld reported that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has put somewhat of a buzzkill on the learn-to-code party, saying IT jobs will grow 12% over the next decade, although computer programmers will see an 8% decline. "Computer programming can be done from anywhere in the world, so companies sometimes hire programmers in countries where wages are lower," explained the government. The silver lining is that software developers, the largest occupational group in IT, will increase by 17% or 186,600, over this period. The nomenclature here is a little muddy, since "programmers" and "software developers" are often used interchangeably. Here's how they're distinguished in this article: "Programmers are focused on coding and implementing requirements, and that’s why they may be more susceptible to offshoring, in contrast to software developers who may be more engaged with the business, analyzing needs and collaborating with multiple parties."

Comments

Short term: change title from programmer to dev

[xxxJonBoyxxx]

Short term, I guess its time for any remaining "programmers" to change their titles to "developers"...which is probably what's really driving the "growth."

>> software developers who may be more engaged with the business, analyzing needs and collaborating with multiple parties

In other words, don't ever let anyone figure out what exactly you do, and make sure you're attending more meetings than actually working. Mission accomplished!

Re:Short term: change title from programmer to dev

[gstoddart]

Long term, get the hell out of tech, and stop giving your employers any loyalty ... because they'll drop you like a hot turd the moment they can.

But, then, we've pretty much all known this teaching all kids to code was a self-serving thing to get them more cheap labor.

Got kids you want to be gainfully employed? Get them into a trade like an electrician, welder, or plumber.

Tech is being gutted to the lowest bidder. So all of these years of saying tech jobs were the way of the future ... well, so long, suckers.

Re:Short term: change title from programmer to dev

[jonnyj]

Tech jobs are only one way of using programming skills.

When kids learn to code, they learn to think algorithmically. They learn to break down problems into smaller, easier to define sub-problems. They learn to construct models. They learn to apply numerical methods to problem evaluation. They learn about the relationship between inputs and outputs, cause and effect. They get to explore feedback mechanisms, hysteresis, system complexity and instability.

These are highly desirable workplace skills in a wide range of occupations. Physicists, bankers, data scientists, pricing specialists, marketing consultants, accountants (the list is endless) all benefit from the analytical mind of a someone who understands how to code.

Re:Short term: change title from programmer to dev

[Chrisq]

Go where the money is. If management is what you want to pay me for, I'll be a manager. How hard can it be to pretend I know what I'm talking about despite not having any clue?

Actually its difficult for a lot of people. To say with complete confidence "we know that the future is sub-prime lending" or "stock markets will keep going up, we've seen the end of boom and bust" is very difficult for anyone who understands empirical methods, basic probability, and so on. It is also something that anyone with a conscience would feel bad doing (unless they really believe it).

The same holds true for other jobs, too.

[scunc]

During that same time period, secretarial jobs will likely see an 8% drop in demand, but administrative assistants will see a 17% increase!

Re:The same holds true for other jobs, too.

[Tablizer]

And I'm changing my title from "troll" to "agitation engineer".

Unions

[rsilvergun]

If there's going to be any hope for the American working class we're gonna need to get over our childish "I can make it on my own" attitudes and bring back organized labor and the power and protection it offers. It's ridiculous to think we as individuals can effectively bargain with mega corps. John Galt is a child's daydream...

Re:Unions

[Tablizer]

American working class we're gonna need to get over our childish "I can make it on my own" attitudes and bring back organized labor and the power and protection it offers

That's indeed one of the most powerful propaganda gimmicks of the plutocrats: claiming unions are for unmanly wimps, and if you can't "cowboy" it out there on your own, you deserve to perish. They spend a lot of money to shove that message up the population.

Of course, the rich have their crony "buddy system" that does pretty much what a union does. Bill Gates had access to a minicomputer as a kid because his parents had money and lived in the better school district. Mitt, Trump, and the Bush bro's had daddy's money and influence.

Re:Unions

[iamacat]

We can bargain with megacorps quite effectively so long as supply and demand of labor is balanced. Compare your consumer experience when shopping for personal electronics (lots of competition, abundant supply) vs dealing with Comcast (monopoly). It's exactly the same with jobs - if you have a skill set which is in short supply, you will get great deals without any unions.

So the best solution for oversupply of labor is for government to hire part of the workforce away from private market and put them on projects that reduce fixed costs of living for everyone else and increase disposable impact to purchase privately made goods. That's why New Deal worked well for recovery from Great Depression. If we build good roads, affordable housing, public transportation and affordable domestically produced energy, we provide lots of jobs while freeing up most of people's paycheck to go into private economy rather than mortgage and gas bill.

So politics is a better direction to put your time in money than unions, although I guess the later is a useful stopgap measure and can be an organizing force for politics.

Re:Unions

[Tablizer]

See, you're doing it.

Citizens accept a certain degree of inequality because we know it's necessary for capitalism to work properly. However, populations won't accept HUGE inequality very long. The claim that huge inequality is necessary for "motivation" is utterly ridiculous.

It's not just about "fairness", but the very political system. The rich buy laws they want via campaign contributions and political ads, short-circuiting democracy.

Look at their attack on climate change research and solutions. They don't want to pay for greener energy, and so spend boatloads of money to discredit the idea. And it works, roughly 40% of the population fell for it.

Re:Unions

[ClickOnThis]

John Galt gave up on the system and ran off to be a farmer. What does that say about progress?

Nothing.

But it says a lot about Ayn Rand's juvenile self-centered world-view.

Not bloody likely

[iamacat]

Everybody tried outsourcing and realized that it doesn't work. Creating a great product requires creativity and each contributor capable of saying no to superiors and standing up for their improvements to the solution. This mind set does not yet exist much outside Silicon Valley, let alone USA and huge lifestyle disparity between american bosses and outsourced coders would not allow it to flourish.

By the time developing countries have the kind of talent in greater quality/quantity than US, labor will not be that cheap anymore because employees will know their worth. At that point, I will just move there.

Re:Not bloody likely

[sinij]

Outsourcing can and does produce as good if not better software.

People can and do win lottery. In my experience, outsourcing to China and India results in a quality drop. Indian teams tend to practice cowboy coding and are more comfortable releasing without robust testing. Chinese teams tend to value seniority and rigid hierarchy, as such problems that are discovered are not communicated and as a result go unaddressed. Sure, all of this can happen without outsourcing, but outsourcing makes it a lot more likely.

What am I?

[freak0fnature]

Am I a programmer? Am I a Software Developer? Maybe I'm a Software Engineer! Maybe a software architect... honestly I can't tell anymore

Re:Programming is for Cows

[Spy Handler]

No, Sexconker, it's the H1-B workers who are cash cows for asshole U.S. corporations who keep firing U.S. workers and hiring them, so they can make more money off of destroying the middle class in this country.

This is why you must vote for Bernie (if you're a liberal) or Trump (if you're a conservative). Clinton, Bush and Rubio want exactly the same thing which is to make their corporate masters richer while gutting the middle class. When Disney was laying off their entire IT department and forcing them to train their H1B replacement workers, whose campaign do you think Disney was funding? Hillary and Jeb's. Not Bernie or Trump: Disney hates these guys.