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How We Know North Korea Didn't Detonate a Hydrogen Bomb

StartsWithABang writes: The news has been aflame with reports that North Korea detonated a hydrogen bomb on January 6th, greatly expanding its nuclear capabilities with their fourth nuclear test and the potential to carry out a devastating strike against either South Korea or, if they're more ambitious, the United States. The physics of what a nuclear explosion actually does and how that signal propagates through the air, oceans and ground, however, can tell us whether this was truly a nuclear detonation at all, and if so, whether it was fusion or fission. From all the data we've collected, this appears to be nothing new: just a run-of-the-mill fission bomb, with the rest being a sensationalized claim. (Related: Yesterday's post about how seismic data also points to a conventional nuke, rather than an H-bomb.)

27 of 176 comments (clear)

  1. Forbes Warning by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    WARNING: The link goes to Forbes.com. Do no click on it.

  2. Whew by fph+il+quozientatore · · Score: 5, Funny

    Just a normal fission nuke? Oh, ok, we're safe then.

    --
    My first program:

    Hell Segmentation fault

    1. Re: Whew by TheReaperD · · Score: 2

      Well, they can only destroy one city per bomb instead of one country (or US western state) per bomb. Sound like a small difference except that they have so few of them to work with.

      --
      "Be particularly skeptical when presented with evidence confirming what you already believe." -
    2. Re:Whew by DoktorMidnight · · Score: 2
      This is a bit of a nomenclature/semantics problem. Culturally, all non-conventional weapons are regarded as "nukes" due to the fact that the entirety of the non-conventional arsenal is composed of thermonuclear devices (i.e. hydrogen bombs aka fission-fusion trigger devices). What the North Koreans detonated was an atomic bomb (possibly with a hydrogen component, but not truly a fission-fusion trigger device and therefore not a thermonuclear weapon). And from what the seismic data indicate, it was smaller than the device used on Hiroshima (and/or Nagasaki).

      Executive Summary: Yes, it's a largish bomb, but don't go building a fallout shelter.

    3. Re: Whew by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 4, Informative

      a fusion bomb may have much more power in terms of megatons TNT, but it won't destroy more than a medium sized city.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    4. Re: Whew by TheReaperD · · Score: 2

      I was thinking of the super powerful ones we tested in the pacific. Now that you mention it, they can come in smaller sizes though.

      --
      "Be particularly skeptical when presented with evidence confirming what you already believe." -
    5. Re: Whew by NormalVisual · · Score: 4, Informative

      Fusion bombs aren't that strong. An average 1.2 Mt device set off in the air at the Magic Kingdom in Walt Disney World would likely leave most of Orlando unscathed beyond broken windows and a bad sunburn, and wouldn't even have any effects at KSC beyond hearing it. Running the plot for a much larger 5 Mt explosion shows that while there's significantly more damage, even the nearby cities of Sanford and Lakeland wouldn't be significantly affected.

      --
      Please stand clear of the doors, por favor mantenganse alejado de las puertas
    6. Re: Whew by Gojira+Shipi-Taro · · Score: 2

      It would also cleanly eliminate The Great Rat's dark hold on Orlando.

      --
      "Oh my God. This is terrible. This is the end of my Presidency. I'm fucked."; ~ Donald J. Trump
    7. Re: Whew by dcw3 · · Score: 2

      You're off just a wee bit...

      From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
      The Chicxulub impactor had an estimated diameter of 10 km (6.2 mi) or larger, and delivered an estimated energy equivalent of 240,000 gigatons of TNT (1.0×1024 J).[21] By contrast, the most powerful man-made explosive device ever detonated, the Tsar Bomba, had a yield of only 50 megatons of TNT (2.1×1017 J),[22] making the Chicxulub impact almost 5 million times more powerful. Even the most energetic known volcanic eruption, which released an estimated energy equivalent of approximately 240 gigatons of TNT (1.0×1021 J) and created the La Garita Caldera,[23] delivered only 0.1% of the energy of the Chicxulub impact.

      --
      Just another day in Paradise
  3. Smells fishy. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I'm no Korean speaker, but did they actually announce a hydrogen bomb explosion, or certain technologies involved hydrogen bomb production? It's not like they wouldn't be aware that foreign organisations would know what's going down, of course, so this might just be an internal propaganda exercise that the RoW decided to pick up on. Maybe they wanted to see sensationalised headlines from the West to prove to their people that they were under threat again.

    1. Re: Smells fishy. by TheReaperD · · Score: 5, Insightful

      There's no doubt that this is all about propaganda, it's just a question of who the story is aimed at.

      --
      "Be particularly skeptical when presented with evidence confirming what you already believe." -
    2. Re: Smells fishy. by phantomfive · · Score: 4, Informative
      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  4. Re: What the fuck has happened to Slashdot?! by TheReaperD · · Score: 4, Insightful

    OK, over half of the topics you suggest are your personal pet peeves, rather than current news stories. The others have already had their run here. What do you suggest, that they keep rerunning your issues with software development until your satisfied with the end result? Now, that being said, some of the articles here have been pretty bad.

    --
    "Be particularly skeptical when presented with evidence confirming what you already believe." -
  5. TWICE IN ONE DAY! by thegarbz · · Score: 3, Informative

    WTF Slashdot.

    Two fucking Forbes articles in one day.
    Two fucking StartsWithASlashvertisement posts in one day.

    How many more readers do you want to leave? I'm getting to my breaking point!

  6. Why they detonated it by phantomfive · · Score: 3, Interesting

    This is my favorite theory of why N Korea detonated a bomb, because China snubbed the dear-leader's hand-picked girl band. Things are strange over there.

    --
    "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    1. Re:Why they detonated it by phantomfive · · Score: 2
      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  7. Fuck Forbes, and in particular Ethan Siegel by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    I've posted this, today, on slashdot and I'm posting it again.

    In particular, Fuck Ethan Siegel, the handle resembling a human name used by the StartsWithABang guy, well-known Internet troll and manipulator of disinformation ("digital strategist" in today's Internet dysphemism), who is claimed to be "professor" perhaps of nothing but the art of aggressive marketeering.

    dieethandie.

    Forbes is a well known scam site.

    The website "offers" 17 trackers on a single page serving what they claim to be "content", by the count of Ghostery. In comparison, Slashdot serves 6.

    The site claims to promise "light ad" and nags you to turn off the ad blocker. In reality, it's 4% content and 96% ads.

    What's worse, the blogs hosted there offers no information that is so unique that is worthy of whitelisting the site in your content blocker. The "Starts with a bang" blog, for example, "publishes" stories that are actually regurgitated, thinly-wrapped, dumbed-down, borderline plagiarism from science journals, websites and blogs. The link to the actual news is usually buried with a wall of distracting text and images copied or re-phrased from the original source. The whole blog serves no other purpose than baiting the reader for the purpose of tracking.

    In addition, it appears that the purpose of hosting ads includes malware delivery.

    The behavior of Forbes.com is at best sociopathic and outright criminal at worst. They look really desperate.

    It's only a matter of time before this hub of mal-adverts gets its page ranks bitchslapped by Google, and pulling down the rank of all prolific referrers, including Slashdot.

    Which is completely deserved.

  8. Re: What the fuck has happened to Slashdot?! by Ultra64 · · Score: 2

    You mean you *are* him.

  9. Re:So Duck and Cover Still Good Advice? by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 2

    We can try to shoot down the missile inbound and it they get off they will be wiped out.

  10. Re:What the fuck has happened to Slashdot?! by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The destruction of the GNOME project thanks to the horribly failed GNOME 3 debacle. * The destruction of the Firefox web browser thanks to numerous fucking idiotic changes being forced on its users by Mozilla.

    Nobody cares any more because realize that Mozilla is so f'ed up that it has to get worse before it gets better.

    * The destruction of Linux as a viable OS, especially when used on servers, all thanks to systemd being forced by all of the major distros.

    FreeBSD FTW. If it's good enough for Sony and Apple, ...

    * The fall of the GPL thanks to people wanting to use truly free licenses like the BSD and MIT licenses.

    You say that like it's a bad thing to replace a restrictive license like the GPL with a freer license.

    * The fall of Ruby and Ruby on Rails.

    That was an easy one to figure out pretty much right from the get-go. Only the n00b language-of-the-month people got sucked into that.

    * The Rust and Perl 6 programming language disasters.

    And? There weren't that many people using Rust, and Perl 5x still works fine.

    * The Go and Swift programming language success stories.

    Nobody who's not using it cares. Replacing a set of tools with another because "NEW" has been done too many times.

    * The rise of FreeBSD and OpenBSD, thanks to systemd ruining Linux.

    Again, what's so bad about a system with no licensing restrictions, as opposed to the GPL?

    * Microsoft porting .NET to OS X and Linux.

    They're free to do whatever they want. That's not suddenly going to make someone who didn't use it before suddenly want to use it.

    * Firefox OS failing worse than nearly any software project has failed in a very long time.

    How is this not a GOOD thing? Maybe it will force them to concentrate more effort on core products, like fixing the memory leaks and other bugs in Firefox.

    See, there's always a silver lining around every cloud.

    --
    "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
  11. Effective immunization against US aggression... by bogaboga · · Score: 4, Insightful

    According to the Norh Koreans:

    "...The Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq and the Gaddafi regime in Libya could not escape the fate of destruction after being deprived of their foundations for nuclear development and giving up nuclear programs of their own accord, yielding to the pressure of the US and the West keen on their regime changes... a bitter lesson should be drawn from those events..."

    I wonder why I am inclined to believe them. Am I alone?

  12. Duck and Cover works for asteroid strike by Latent+Heat · · Score: 2

    Ha, ha, and ha, very funny but completely unoriginal.

    In the Chelmyabinsk asteroid air burst, there was a video of people who saw the flash and then stood there for multiples of seconds until the blast wave bloodied their faces with glass shards.

    Duck and Cover is for real for all wide-are effect events in the kiloton to megaton range, whatever their source. If you are close enough, yes, you will be vaporized. If you are far enough away that you can be conscious after seeing the flash, it will take some time for the blast to arrive. Instead of just standing there with your mouth open, get your face under cover so people don't have to pick the glass splinters out of your hide.

  13. Re:What the fuck has happened to Slashdot?! by Zontar+The+Mindless · · Score: 2

    * The fall of the GPL thanks to people wanting to use truly free licenses like the BSD and MIT licenses.

    Your phrasing clearly shows an agenda. This "fall" is occurring only in the dreams of those who want to corporatise OSS software while giving nothing back.

    * The Go and Swift programming language success stories.

    *What* Go and Swift programming language success stories?

    * The rise of FreeBSD and OpenBSD, thanks to systemd ruining Linux.

    While I'm not a huge fan of systemd (wouldn't miss it, were it to... die in a fire, for instance), this hasn't kept *me* from using Linux for the last decade-plus. I don't see it stopping many other folks, either.

    --
    Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
  14. Re:What the fuck has happened to Slashdot?! by nightfire-unique · · Score: 2

    So to a business owner, _no_ commodity is more valuable than feedback.

    People have a bad meal at a restaurant, and 90% of the time, leave without saying a word. The business owner is perplexed, and eventually goes out of business.

    "The roast beef here is terrible."

    Six words could have saved his business.

    The same is true for every business.

    AC is certainly free to stop reading, and AC knows that. You're not really adding to the conversation, but you could dissuade them from providing an extremely valuable service to businesses in the future - feedback.

    --
    A government is a body of people notably ungoverned - AC
  15. Re: What the fuck has happened to Slashdot?! by 0100010001010011 · · Score: 2

    I think we need a technical solution in FOSS.

    I think the climate of the internet is ready for it. Everyone is sick of Slashdot's turn for the worse. Redditors are crying about reddit going down. Everyone is complaining about the twitter sinking ship. Facebook is... facebook.

    We haven't seen a new, good, decentralized site in years. Personally I think all of the software is already written, it just needs a bit of tweaking.

    - Usenet for discussion.
    - IRC for chat.
    - nginx front end.

    The only thing that needs to be written is a decent moderation on top of it all.

  16. Re: What the fuck has happened to Slashdot?! by doccus · · Score: 2

    His list selections are all SLASHDOT material. That's kinda what this site used to be about. If you want "current news stories" go to ..er.. FOX ;-)

  17. Re: What the fuck has happened to Slashdot?! by thechemic · · Score: 2

    My workstation at home has never had a BSOD, never any data corruption, and never any issues at all for over 2 years. But I also make it a rule to not buy my computers from Walmart. I also implement configurations to mitigate code execution from the user profile. Windows is an exceptionally stable and powerful platform assuming you didn't install it on top of complete garbage for hardware and assuming you don't run it using an administrator account - just like on Linux.

    --
    Let's make like a bird... and get the flock outta here.