Slashdot Mirror
VC Firm Y Combinator Launches an Experiment In Universal Basic Income (fastcoexist.com)
New submitter Gordon_Shure writes: Silicon Valley startup financer Y Combinator, remembered for successes like Airbnb and Dropbox, is launching an experiment to give people a Universal Basic Income. At present, the plan is for hundreds of participants to get repeated cash payments unconditionally. Then, assessors will record life consequences like changes in work patterns, self-employment, artistic endeavors, or idleness.
Recent focus on UBI in Finland, Switzerland and other countries see proponents claim a basic income will — in a world facing structural unemployment due to jobs taken by automated AI, robotics and machines — combat poverty and work insecurity. Others remain unconvinced. What do you think about the significance of what this kind of small-population study would show?
Recent focus on UBI in Finland, Switzerland and other countries see proponents claim a basic income will — in a world facing structural unemployment due to jobs taken by automated AI, robotics and machines — combat poverty and work insecurity. Others remain unconvinced. What do you think about the significance of what this kind of small-population study would show?
Does the study include some "middle-class" test subjects so see how well they do after paying higher taxes ?
1% APY, No fees, Online Bank https://captl1.co/2uIErYq Don't let your $$$ sit in a no-interest acct.
They will only be paying people for five years. If someone paid me for five years, I would be constantly worried about what would happen at the end of five years. I wouldn't want to re-enter the workforce with degraded skills, etc.
But if I knew I would be getting that money for the rest of my life, it very likely would affect my habits.
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
People will work; it's in our natures.
I'm not sure I agree with your premise. I know that some people will always work. Myself and my mom for example. My two sisters probably wouldn't. My ex wife, a childhood friend, and a few others I know all avoid work as much as possible. Fun experiment, ask a lazy person do help you and see how fast they are busy that day. I am not against the citizen dividend as long as the citizens have to something other than breathe to get it. Work and pay taxes, great you qualify. If you're retired or not working a paying job then you have to do something else. I like what Maine has done with regards to people who want free stuff, where you have to volunteer a certain number of hours to qualify. Everyone I know on disability is doing a big fat nothing to help the world that helps them. This is wrong. I'm not against helping people, however money for nothing is a bad idea.
I'm not entirely convinced that the number of net work hours will even decrease. It is an interesting experiment, and I will hypothesize that the results will be determined by the financial state of the person that started receiving the UBI. I think that the largest change in behavior will come from people in the middle to lower income levels. People with very little income level will most likely have most of the money consumed simply escaping debt, which is usually what has them locked into lower income levels while the middle class will see the most change.
I predict that most of the middle of the road people who show up for a paycheck will cut back on hours worked during the day while most of the 'doers' will increase their average time worked. I feel that with more security on the financial side the people who are more naturally inclined to take risks and push the envelope will lose the largest disincentive to making a startup in their financial insecurity in the event of failure. Thus I predict certain groups will end up working even more hours than they were before because many people today work for reasons other than a paycheck.
Regardless of number of hours worked I feel that this move will have significant upward pressure on wages. With people cutting back hours due to disinterest there will be a decrease in the supply of labor and most of all UBI gives every single person bargaining power in terms of salary. For people of all income levels having an income that gives you the time and luxury to find a good job with a good salary gives you tremendous advantage in salary negotiations, which, properly leveraged, can translate to salary increases even in what were traditionally minimum wage jobs. Who wants to slave behind a cash register for 8 dollars an hour when they aren't desperate to feed their kids?
In the end the question will be whether those that choose to make do with the basic income can be supported by the the ones that choose to work, but the idea can certainly generate benefit for everyone involved through increased wages and a decreased number of people who show up to fill a seat.
"There are lies, there are damn lies, and there are statistics"
Yes. We have problems now with welfare recipients using money for everything but it's intended purpose. I've donated coats to children that live in homes with cable tv and a donk with 30" rims sitting in the driveway. I feel sorry for the kids, they didn't choose their fucked up parents. I think any kind of basic living stipend should be in the form of food, clothing and housing. If they want money they should work for it.
It's a temporary study, so here's my prediction:
People currently living beyond their means will continue to live beyond their elevated means.
What does this even mean when you have a global economy with surplus capacity? Machines/People are sitting around not making stuff because those living within their means just want to save, and those living beyond their means are being told not to borrow the money those living within their means are desperate trying to shove into their bank accounts through the finance industry. An entire economy can't save for next year's harvest by hoarding piles of green paper.
People capable of affording their current lifestyle will invest the additional income.
By desperately trying to find someone to borrow the money off them, even though negative real interest rates would suggest you ain't going to find any takers.
People who tend to make bad decisions will quit their jobs and pursue fame by some manner. Any success in this group will be seen as a strong argument for the UBI even if it proves to be statistically consistent with other people who drop their lives to pursue fame.
As opposed to doing a job we could easily automate but won't because those of us who still have utility value ensure (through housing benefits, tax credits) that subsistence level humans can out compete robots for all the rubbish jobs.
I'm not a fan of lazy people. But I don't think it makes sense to have them do jobs that robots could do under the threat of starvation, simply so that I can feel better about some kind of puritan work ethic that was beaten into me as a child.
People always point to someone else and say "they don't work" or "they're wasting their money".. it's usually never that simple. Our system of employment is very hit or miss, and isn't really capable of even determining what jobs a person would be good at or find interesting.
Fun experiment, ask a person if they are busy that day and offer them some money to help you instead of assuming they should for free, see how fast they come over. Your "lazy person" may have just figured out that busting their ass for nothing isn't the best thing they can do with their time.
You do realize the entire left-right paradigm is essentially a fallacy when analyzed to any depth?
Automation and AI are for real. I've heard about job replacement by automation my whole life. But now it is seriously happening and not just for menial labor. Professional services and complex tasks are being replaced as fast as the software can be written.
So it is useless to talk about UBI as if it is optional. The only alternative is some form of luddite resistance to automation. UBI is a much better solution. It can be funded by taxing the massive profits coming from the automation. So the only real obstacle is the mindset that resists the idea of not requiring work for survival. Get over it.
"He took a duck in the face at 250 knots." -- William Gibson, Pattern Recognition
The question is whether it actually would reduce productivity. The summary mentions "a world facing structural unemployment due to jobs taken by automated AI, robotics and machines." If you believe (as I do, and as the people behind this study clearly do) that we're heading toward a world where productivity isn't driven by human labor, we'd better start figuring out how to support all those people who won't be needed to maintain productivity.
Besides, there are many kinds of "productivity", and economists are much better at measuring some than others. A parent who stays home to raise their children may be contributing far more to society than if they were running a cash register at the grocery. But conventional economic measures only include the latter while ignoring the former.
"I'm too busy to research this and form an educated opinion, but I do have time to tell everyone my uninformed opinion."
Most people need externally-imposed structure, even though they hate it. Otherwise, it's too easy to put things off until "later." Case in point: statistics inform me, dear reader, that you're probably 10+ pounds over your ideal weight. As a /. reader, you probably consider yourself to be above-average motivated, etc, but I'll bet you're (still) planning to get rid of the weight, and how's that working out? Now, if you suddenly couldn't get any kind of sex whenever you're 3+ lbs. over your ideal weight, how long would it take you to get and stay skinny?
For many people, financial need is what gives them that sense of urgency. Some may view having a "crappy" job like working as a waiter as human bondage that should be automated, but they're ignoring the fact that said job is what gets that person up in the morning and gives their life structure. Otherwise, it's just too easy to smoke a joint and think about what you'd like to do today... but probably won't get around to doing.
I grew up with a lot of kids with rich-kid allowances. Not huge amounts of money, but typically in that annual $30 - 60K range that's being proposed for a UBI. In about half the cases they've wasted their potential. In other words, they're middle-aged fuck-ups still sucking on the parental teat, and their well-meaning parents can't bring themselves to cut them off.
And guess what? They mostly spend their days pleasantly high or buzzed. Based on this (not conjecture), my experience is that giving many people an allowance gives them one less reason to stay off drink and drugs.
I have some savings that earn approx 7% interest per year. You can argue the interest payments are the premium I'm paid for the risk of default, or perhaps that they represent the opportunity cost of spending the money, but it's pretty hard for me to understand how I'm "earning" them in any sense that relates to actual work. I could go into cryogenic suspension and the money would still roll in.
I'd wager that most rich people aren't really rich from earnings; they're rich from renting out their capital.