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Swedish Scientist Suggests That There Is Only One Earth (blastingnews.com)

MarkWhittington writes: The conventional wisdom has been among scientists is that a myriad of Earth-like planets exist in the universe, some of which have to be the abode of life, even intelligent life. However, Astrophysicist Erik Zackrisson from Uppsala University in Sweden has run a computer simulation of the universe, incorporating what we know about exoplanets thanks to the Kepler Space Telescope, the laws of physics, and the state of the early universe. The computer simulation came up with exactly one Earth, which is to say the one we live on. Every other planet in the universe does not have the conditions necessary to sustain life. Indeed, strictly speaking, Earth itself should not exist, according to the computer model, according to the story in Discover Magazine.

28 of 720 comments (clear)

  1. Then he's doing it wrong. by tekrat · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If his model says that Earth should not exist, then there's something wrong with his model.

    Also, considering how life thrives even in hostile environments here on Earth, it's simply a mathematical impossibility that there are no other planets in the universe capable of supporting some kind of life.

    --
    If telephones are outlawed, then only outlaws will have telephones.
    1. Re:Then he's doing it wrong. by Lispy · · Score: 1, Insightful

      That's not what he's saying. He says that earths are statistically rare. That doesn't make any predictions on the amount of life in the universe that might exist on not-earth like planets/habitats...

    2. Re:Then he's doing it wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It is what he's saying. If you've got a "model" then you should be able to make predictions from it and test those predictions. In this case, his model predicted "There's no way Earth could happen based on this." so we know his model is off. That can be a good thing, as it can give us more specific insights as to where our understanding of physics has its gaps, if his model is true to our laws of physics.

      Because there's not just Earth. Mars isn't "far off" from being habitable, and neither is Jupiter's Enchilada Stand. 3 spots in a single, relatively small solar system that have the geological potential to bear life are showing 3 massive errors in our understanding of the universe's development.

    3. Re:Then he's doing it wrong. by sims+2 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      And this model is infallible just like the hundreds of thousands of computer models before it. GIGO Garbage in garbage out.

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    4. Re:Then he's doing it wrong. by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      "should not exist" does not mean it "cannot exist". So the model could be correct.

    5. Re:Then he's doing it wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If his model says that Earth should not exist, then there's something wrong with his model.

      Also, considering how life thrives even in hostile environments here on Earth, it's simply a mathematical impossibility that there are no other planets in the universe capable of supporting some kind of life.

      An actual astrophysicist in a University spent time and effort to conduct a study and run a simulation and came up with a result. A slashdoter decided that he is wrong and that his result is mathematically impossible based on... hmm.. just his version of common sense.

      I am with the Slashdoter!

    6. Re:Then he's doing it wrong. by Grishnakh · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The "astrophysicist" came up with a model which says that Earth doesn't exist.

      Obviously, his model is plainly wrong. Why should I believe his simulation results when his simulation can't even get the one data point we *do* know about right?

    7. Re:Then he's doing it wrong. by Agent0013 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That's not what he's saying. He says that earths are statistically rare.

      And how can he possibly know that given the tiny sample size of solar systems we have seen so far compared to the number in the universe? Suppose the chance of an Earth-like world forming is one in a billion. Given the number of solar systems we have studied so far it would be entirely possible that we had not seen one so far and yet with 400 billion stars there would be 400 "Earths" in the Milky-way alone let alone in the billions of galaxies in the universe. Extrapolating to a universe of billions of galaxies each with hundreds of billions of stars using a sample size of what, a few thousand?, ten thousand?, is statistically daft...and having a model which agrees with your statistically insignificant sample does not make it any better.

      It seems worse than that to me. He isn't just using a small sample size, he is using a sample that is skewed toward large planets that are close to their parent star. How many exo-Plutos have we found? How about exo-Mercurys? I don't think we have even found a planet as small as earth yet, but I could be wrong on that. When the reports of exo-Earths have come out they have been larger than our Earth, but they call them an exo-Earth because it might be in the Goldilocks zone.

      Car analogies work so well, lets use one here. We will make a model that recreates all the cars on the road. But we will only input the semi-trucks and tour buses. I bet the model will say that sports cars are highly unlikely. I think the term is GIGO, Garbage In - Garbage Out.

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      -- ssoorrrryy,, dduupplleexx sswwiittcchh oonn.. -Quote found on actual fortune cookie.
  2. Ho hum by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Computer modeler cranks out computer model that predicts that things we know to be true are not true, and then asserts the universe is wrong....

  3. Based on what we know about exoplanets by amRadioHed · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The huge problem here is that his data is based on what we know about exoplanets so far. Of course his model will show most of the planets are much larger than earth. Those are the ones we're able to find so far.

    --
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  4. Earth itself should not exist... by TommyNelson · · Score: 3, Insightful

    ...according to the computer model.
    Says something about the model, then, doesn't it?

  5. Re:Duh. Because God made it by Iamthecheese · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Yeah! God loves you so much that he'll torture forever if you don't love him back.

    --
    If video games influenced behavior the Pac Man generation would be eating pills and running away from their problems.
  6. Useless model? by gstoddart · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Earth itself should not exist, according to the computer model

    If your model doesn't account for reality, is your model deficient? I'd say yes.

    Many things are improbable, but in a vast universe, improbable becomes fairly likely.

    So, if he can't account for the Earth we have, the estimation of other ones like it is pretty useless.

    --
    Lost at C:>. Found at C.
  7. Science articles suck. by TsuruchiBrian · · Score: 4, Insightful

    When one refers to a "1 in a million chance" they are not implying that they actually tried something 1 million times and it only worked once. They are implying that *if* they would have tried something 1 million times it would have only worked once. So if you win the lottery jackpot, your winning ticket was still "1 in 300 million" regardless of how many other tickets you bought or how many exist.

    The title of the article is "Earth may be a 1-in-700 quintillion kind of place", but the article cites the 700-quintillion number as the total number of planets, and then goes on to say that according to the scientist's calculations, the earth should probably not exist (i.e. the odds of an earth like planet are even lower than 1 in 700-quintillion). So what are the odds that earth should exist? Who knows, it's not even mentioned.

    This would be like if I reported on some guy winning the powerball and said "This guy bought 100 lottery tickets and one of the tickets won the jackpot. That was an amazingly improbable event that happened, making the ticket a "1 in a hundred kind of ticket.""

    I have no idea if the statistical analysis done by this scientists is good or bad. But all I ask is that it is presented in a way that is coherent.

  8. Re:Duh. Because God made it by Jhon · · Score: 1, Insightful

    "Yeah! God loves you so much that he'll torture forever if you don't love him back."

    A lot of people like that trope you just keyed and repeat it quote often. The problem is that it misrepresents Christianity completely. In Christianity, one does not "love" God like one "loves" a person -- or a dog -- or a sandwich. It's not the same thing.

  9. Re:Duh. Because God made it by Captain+Splendid · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You might be right, but from a human perspective, God can really be a colossal dick.

    --
    Linux, you magnificent bastard, I read the fucking manual!
  10. Re:Duh. Because God made it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This is how I know every god-based theism is wrong. Any sort of supreme consciousness would not care about things like "worship" or "tribute". These are egotistical human constructs and reflect the mindset of the people who lived in ancient times when most religions were created -- where a "god" would behave like a king or overlord. The Bible even uses these terms explicitly to refer to God and Jesus.

  11. Anthropic Principle by bigdavex · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Anthropic Principle
    We tend not to observe universes in which life is impossible.

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    -Dave
  12. Re:Duh. Because God made it by JustAnotherOldGuy · · Score: 4, Insightful

    In Christianity, one does not "love" God like one "loves" a person -- or a dog -- or a sandwich. It's not the same thing.

    Lol, anyone that "loves" me enough to drown the entire planet and kill everyone, including babies and innocent people on other continents, is someone whose love I can do without, thankyouverymuch.

    --
    Just cruising through this digital world at 33 1/3 rpm...
  13. Re:Duh. Because God made it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The problem is that it misrepresents Christianity completely.

    Okay, enough is enough, let's set the record straight...

    Christianity

    The belief that a cosmic Jewish zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his flesh and telepathically tell him you accept him as your master, so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a rib-woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree.

    There, now people can judge Christianity for themselves based solely on its inherent merits.

  14. Re: Duh. Because God made it by GammaKitsune · · Score: 5, Insightful

    In the exact same sense that you can choose to pay protection money to the mob, or have your shins bashed in with a baseball bat. It is your choice, not something Vinny did to you.

    --
    Gamertag: WyleType
  15. Re:If accurate, this is good news. But be skeptica by swb · · Score: 3, Insightful

    How many have truly died out, though?

    Rome is a great example -- you can argue that the Western Empire fell in 476, or you could argue that by 476 Roman culture had been so influential for so long that the end of an official government empire wasn't really the end of the civilization -- people didn't suddenly drop every last bit of Roman cultural traits. Latin was still spoken, Roman buildings, cities and roads were still used and so on.

    To this day, we call one of senior legislative bodies the Senate in a building that borrows a lot of architectural elements from Rome.

    Did Roman civilization end, or did it just evolve into what we now refer to as Western Civilization?

  16. Re:Duh. Because God made it by ClickOnThis · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Look, I'm not going to take sides between you and Jhon on whether God is a dick or not.

    But Jhon is right about what "a human perspective" means. It distinguishes a perspective from a non-human perspective. Your attempt to make it mean one of a plural of human perspectives is just back-pedaling.

    --
    If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
  17. Re:Duh. Because God made it by Jhon · · Score: 2, Insightful

    "According to the bible it is."

    Then you didn't read the bible very carefully.

    "All that makes me is human."

    That's right. You are anthropomorphizing God -- who is not human. And attributing contempt to God for actions that would be understandable were it being done by Bob in accounting rather than God.

    "It has nothing to do with the myriad lies told in the bible."

    Re-read my statement. I wasn't claiming anything other than reasons are far more nuanced than you care to accept. And what I said had everything to do with your over simplification of the bible and anthropomorphizing God.

  18. Re:Duh. Because God made it by Jhon · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Statistics. It seems in vogue to pound on the Christians of late.

  19. Re:Duh. Because God made it by gweihir · · Score: 2, Insightful

    There is really no need to point this out. Anybody halfway rational already knows that "God" and organized religion are great big meme-based scams, done to control people, to acquire and keep power, etc. Anybody else is deeply infected by that malicious meme and cannot think rationally about things involving religion anymore.

    From the numbers (apparently something like 80% infected and hence deeply irrational), things do not look good for the human race. Does explain a lot of things though.

    --
    Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  20. The Color of God by mcgrew · · Score: 1, Insightful

    My dad was color blind, and he hated that term. âoeI can see colors,â he would say, âoeJust not the same ones as you.â
            He was one of the five percent of males with the red/green color blindness, as was his brother Bill. They couldn't tell the difference between red and green at all.
            When I was small, stop signs in Illinois were yellow. Dad was mad as hell when they changed all of them to red, because the red stop sign stands out against a green background for most people, but for someone with this type of color deficiency the sign becomes practically invisible when there are green plants around.
            He got a ticket for running a red light once in Arizona. For you and me, green means go, red means stop. To him, the light on the top means stop and the light on the bottom means go. They had installed the traffic light upside down! He still had to pay the ticket, even though it was the city's fault that he ran the light.
            Now, imagine not color deficiency like my dad had, but a true color blindness, where a truly color blind person could see no color at all, only shades of gray.
            Imagine a world where half of the people were truly color blind and could only see gray. How could you describe âoeredâ to such a person? I don't think it's possible; one needs a referent, and there would be none.
            People who could see color would know for sure that color exists, even though they couldn't explain color to someone who couldn't see color. But what would a color blind person believe? Probably half, who have half of the people they know able to see color and half who donâ(TM)t telling them that color exists, and they would believe that they were lacking in this useless ability.
            A very large percentage of the color blind population would believe that those who believe in color were fools or insane.
            âoeProve that your âcolorâ(TM) is real!â
            "I can't.â
            âoeThen it doesn't exist.â
            Now, imagine that God exists. Guess what? He does. I can no more prove that He exists than I can prove that the color red exists. I can prove that the frequency 4Ã--10^14 Hz exists, but I can't prove that I can perceive that frequency as the color red, which is what you want me to prove.
            Half of us know God. We donâ(TM)t just believe, we know. We can see his handiwork everywhere, feel his love. Half of us can't, so must either believe me or think I'm full of bovine excrement.
            Such is the color of God.

  21. Re:Duh. Because God made it by mcgrew · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Thanks for hijacking this thread with an offtopic anti-theist thread that goes on forever. I'd like to discuss the fucking article if you fake nerds don't mind.

    This is something I've argued for a long time: WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE CONDITIONS NECESSARY FOR LIFE ARE. I'm agnostic on the subject. As far as we know the universe could be teeming with life, but in our galaxy we're the only one. It's possible that, as this guys simulations show, this is the universe's only life.

    People THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE SUBJECT AND EVERY FUCKING ONE OF YOUR RELIGIOUS COMMENTS ARE OFF TOPIC. This has nothing whatever to do with religion.

    Fucking high school dropouts... slashdot is turning into facebook.