Kim To N. Korean Military: Be Ready To Use Nuclear Weapons At Any Time (reuters.com)

PolygamousRanchKid writes with this story from Reuters, excerpting: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered his country to be ready to use its nuclear weapons at any time and to turn its military posture to "pre-emptive attack" mode in the face of growing threats from its enemies, state media said on Friday. The comments, carried by the North's official KCNA news agency, marked a further escalation of tension on the Korean peninsula after the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday imposed harsh new sanctions against the isolated state for its nuclear program. South Korea's defense ministry said on Thursday North Korea launched several projectiles off its coast into the sea up to 150 kilometers (90 miles) away, an apparent response to the U.N. sanctions. ... North Korea has previously threatened pre-emptive attacks on its enemies including South Korea, Japan and the United States. Military experts doubt it has yet developed the capability to fire a long-range missile with a miniaturized warhead to deliver a nuclear weapon as far as the United States. Says PolygamousRanchKid: "Oh, joy oh joy... I knew that 2016 was missing something: the threat of nuclear war!"

Comments

Nuclear weapons aren't the deterrent

[Harlequin80]

There is no real risk of a nuclear strike coming out of NK. The real deterrent they have is the massed conventional artillery pointed at Seuol. Any attack on NK would have to be so overwhelming as to destroy the artillery in a minute. If not millions of civilians die.

Re:Nuclear weapons aren't the deterrent

[Dorianny]

There is no real risk of a nuclear strike coming out of NK. The real deterrent they have is the massed conventional artillery pointed at Seuol. Any attack on NK would have to be so overwhelming as to destroy the artillery in a minute. If not millions of civilians die.

Nobody is seriously considering a first strike on North Korea. All their bolstering about their enemies threatening attack is for domestic consumption. With the new sanctions imposed life in North Korea is about to get even harder and injecting a new dose of fear in the populace helps to keep them under control. The truth is that what South Korea fears as well as China fear most is a rapid collapse of the regime and millions of immigrants making a mad-dash for the borders

Re:Nuclear weapons aren't the deterrent

[ShanghaiBill]

rhetorical threats from a mentally unstable leader

Kim is NOT mentally unstable. His actions are deliberate and rational. The Kim dynasty has been in power for 70 years. They have wrung concession after concession out of the rest of the world. If Kim negotiated calmly, no one would cave in to his demands. But by issuing threats, and using bizarre behavior, he has been able to get his opponents to accept any deal this is even halfway sane.

The North needs to deescalate.

That would be foolish. It would lead to the end of his regime. He needs an external enemy to justify his rule.

Re:Nuclear weapons aren't the deterrent

[hairyfeet]

It wouldn't be the first time. ladies and gentlemen meet the freedom tank where a Czech found an old Nazi battle tractor, slapped hillbilly armor on that bitch, and drove it right through the iron curtain. I'm sure there are tractors in NK that could similarly be made into "freedom tanks".

Re:Nuclear weapons aren't the deterrent

[Tailhook]

millions of civilians die

Millions would not die. The death toll of a surprise barrage by NK conventional artillery would be tens of thousands. Long range NK artillery would be neutralized in the first week. Seoul would survive.

You're parroting the claims of the NYT and others that tend to exaggerate the consequences of conflict for their own misguided reasons. Without nuclear or chemical weapons NK cannot destroy Seoul, and with such weapons they face rapid obliteration by the strategic weapons of South Korean allies.

Re:Nuclear weapons aren't the deterrent

[Richard_at_work]

Right. Through a minefield designed to stop T-72's. I don't think you realise the enormity of the situation there.

Re:Nuclear weapons aren't the deterrent

[jafiwam]

This stuff is easy to look up yourself.

Hell, get on Google Earth or Google Maps and review all the places they say there will be attacks from.

You'll find a few holes and tunnel entrances.

What you won't find, is fast deploy-able anti aircraft weapons. You won't find ports or ships to carry attackers. You won't find rail lines that can't be cut fast, and you won't find shit for infrastructure to support a war or a movement of troops. You won't find airfields of any merit. You won't find planes on any of the ones that are there that have moved in years. To attack, they'll have to WALK. Over MOUNTAINS.

Cluster bombs, dropped mines, and other simple stuff will stop them. Hell, drop FOOD behind the lines with a leaflet that says "we dropped all the food behind you." That's what they want anyway, that's the reason for all the threats.

Nothing will come of any of this. China will ship them some more food and they'll quiet down until the crops fail next year.

The silver lining around every (mushroom) cloud

[BarbaraHudson]

Look at the bright side - the day after a North Korea 1st strike, the problem with North Korea will be solved. Or at least disappear.

Yawn

[Anonymous Coward]

I live in Seoul and no one I know is even slightly concerned about this guy. No one is scared and no one cares.

Ignore him.

It's just all bluster.

[MtViewGuy]

Mostly because people who have seriously studied the DPRK military note their military is like the military divisions in Moscow during the Soviet era: all show and no go. Many have said that the DPRK military may not even have enough ammunition and military hardware to mount a full-scale invasion of South Korea.

Re:It's just all bluster.

[Harlequin80]

They don't have the capability to invade South Korea. They haven't in a very very long time. If they tried to march south they would be massacred.

What they do have is an absolutely stupid number of artillery pieces pointed south and we know at least some of them work because they keep firing them. The US estimates that NK has 8600 artillery pieces of which 4500 are currently aimed at SK. Even if you assumed 50% were inoperable the amount of explosive that would rain on Seoul is insane.

Re:It's just all bluster.

[thesupraman]

Since you ask a serious question, then why not a serious answer.

My ballpark would be 100,000 people dead depending heavily on the type of ordinance (HE, AP, Incendary, Frag, etc)
so, that is around 1% of the population. Remember, those shells will land roughly randomly - I am assuming they have been
setup to specifically target the population (if totally random then it will be MUCH lower).

However your figures are highly flawed, as you are not allowing for losses in the NK artillery, or for desertions in people who dont
actually want to shell their own families (remember, Korea was only separated a few generations ago), equipment failure, etc.
You are also assuming all of those pieces can reach high popluation densities, however the border is long and the ranges not that great.

By your own claims (and I agree) their most common artillery piece is similar to the D20, around 20km range.
The center is Seoul is 30-40km from the border (30 if you count a specific inset area..), so they only have the closer areas to
target, which are lower density. They would also need to have concentrated all their artillery in a very small and specific region to even
target Seoul.

And, lastly, think about what they would 'gain' by such an attack. The rest of the world would wipe them out.
No more young girl harems for the great leader, no more european sportscars, no more playstation, no more living as kings for the ruling class.
If they are lucky they will be reduced to running and hiding while they are being hunted after the fall of their state.

Hard to see their motivation for such an attack..

He had to up the ante

[Anonymous Coward]

He took one look at American's presidential candidates and said to himself: "Self, if I don't do something fast, I'll lose my title as craziest man on the planet."

This is when editors really need to step in

[rebelwarlock]

Says PolygamousRanchKid: "Oh, joy oh joy... I knew that 2016 was missing something: the threat of nuclear war!"

We don't need this stupid bullshit in the summary. I'll read the comments if I want stupid bullshit.

His numbers don't add up.

[dsmatthews9379]

So he picks a fight and some good and innocent people die, but 100% of his country gets vaporised in the counter strike. He had better check the weather before he wumps SK too, because at the moment the fallout would poison most of eastern China. Or does he realise that and is trying to intimidate Xi Jinping as well? Somehow I don't think that strategy is likely to go well for him.

Cue cartoons of him in a nappy trying to count on his fingers, because that is the magnitude of his arsenal and the nature of his behaviour.

Re:Nuclear weapons aren't necessarily missiles

[drnb]

Sorry I don't give NK military the level of credit you do. I doubt that they are particularly well trained or well equipped. They are also not combat tested to any degree.

Do not confuse the NK military in general with the NK special operations types. Its night and day. They're special operations types are highly capable and have proven it in South Korea. For example in the 1990s a NK reconnaissance team infiltrated South Korea by submarine and successfully surveilled a navy base for several days. When the sub came back to pick them up the sub ran aground. Classified equipment was destroyed and then the recon team executed the sailors and tried to make it to NK on foot. They were discovered and evaded the South Korean military for over a month, killing and wounding several dozen South Korean soldiers in the process. Most of the recon team was killed during this long hunt, one is thought to have made it to NK.

On another occasion a NK sub got caught in a fishing vessels nets. Its seems to have scuttled itself when the South Korean Navy tried to take it. The water was shallow enough for divers to search it. Evidence of numerous successful recon mission on South Korean territory was found.

Instead of armchair explanation...

[three27]

Why not consider an expert's opinion? I point you to the work of Andrei Lankov and in particular a recent (Feb 1, 2016) Q&A he did with the Korea and the World podcast. He's traveled to China and spoken with officials there about the relationship with North Korea—it is in better shape than the media lets on. Also he talks a bit about the current state of the economy and the growth of private markets—they are thriving and being allowed to do so. The conclusion is that North Korea is much more stable than most would give them credit—especially the South Korean propaganda machine—and that despite appearances Kim Jong Un may actually be allowing an openness not previously seen in North Korea. This is demonstrated by the decrease in the number defectors over the last two years and the general increase in the standard of living. source: http://www.koreaandtheworld.or...

Re:Nuclear weapons aren't necessarily missiles

[msauve]

"special operations types are highly capable and have proven it ... the sub ran aground ... recon team executed the sailors ... Most of the recon team was killed..."

"Highly capable" doesn't mean what you think it means.

Re:North Korea's next target ...

[TomGreenhaw]

LOL, hell no.

The fact is Americans love the Chinese. We buy their products like crazy. We love their food. We admire their art, exotic language and respect their ancient heritage. We welcome their people to study and work here. Sure we complain about the trade imbalance and the gamesmanship between our governments. But for the things that really matter they are our brothers and would instantly and without hesitation rally to their aid.

Make no mistake, if North Korea would actually use nuclear weapons in anger against *anybody*, it would cease to exist as a political entity in less than a week.

Lankov may have an agenda

[Zontar_Thing_From_Ve]

Lankov is Russian and is based in Russia. Do I really have to point out that nobody in Russia is a reliable source of information under Putin? For all you or I know, he has Kremlin ties. I do think it's certainly possible that private markets are helping stability, I'm not convinced that Lankov doesn't have an agenda straight from Putin and for a variety of reasons it is in Putin's interests at the moment to paint North Korea in a picture as rosy as possible. I have read Victor Cha's book _The Impossible State_ and I recommend it. Cha points out that China basically has no choice but to support North Korea. They don't want refugees flooding over the border, which not only would cost them money but would take up valuable resources they are going to need to keep the population in line as the economy declines. China lost Taiwan, perhaps forever, as a result of going to North Korea's aid in the Korean War. This is still a major sticking point for them. Their desire to have complete control over Taiwan is insatiable. Also, China paid a real price in blood to save North Korea, including the loss of one of Mao's sons. And finally to give China something for their support, North Korea is basically letting them ravage the environment to dig up rare earths that China pays a huge discount for. Cha states that while China has more influence than they are willing to use most of the time, they actually have less real influence than is commonly believed in the west. North Korea knows that ultimately it can do what it wants because there are real limits to how much China will push back.

Re: North Korea's next target ...

[Coren22]

It is gullible to think that Kim Jong Un is insane? He pokes SK, Japan, and the US on a regular basis. He has attacked SK previously, and fires off missiles and explodes nukes as a temper tantrum every year when the US and SK have their annual cooperation drills.

The guy is clearly crazy, the only reason they won the Korean war was due to China's support, and he has managed to alienate China, their closest ally, by setting off nukes after they told him to quit it.