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Ocean Temps Predict US Heat Waves 50 Days Out, Study Finds (ucar.edu)
An anonymous reader quotes a report from UCAR.edu: The formation of a distinct pattern of sea surface temperatures in the middle of the North Pacific Ocean can predict an increased chance of summertime heat waves in the eastern half of the United States up to 50 days in advance, according to a new study led by a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The pattern is a contrast of warmer-than-average water butting up against cooler-than-average seas. When it appears, the odds that extreme heat will strike during a particular week -- or even on a particular day -- can more than triple, depending on how well-formed the pattern is. "We found that we could go back as far as seven weeks and still predict an increase in the odds of future heat waves," said McKinnon, a postdoctoral research at NCAR and the lead author of the study. "What's exciting about this is the potential for long-range predictions of individual heat waves that gives society far more notice than current forecasts."
Scientists believe there was no darkness before humanity and their CFC pollutants came along. Modeling shows conclusively that temperatures were milder, bowling scores were much higher, golf scores much lower, and waterslides were much more excellent in the pre-Phanerozoic eons.
Correlation is enough for short-term prediction, which is all they're claiming.
But if ocean temperatures (which are rising) are the indicator to this prediction, you folks in the east had best be getting ready for more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves.
That is all.
If you tell a farmer that there's a heatwave coming in ~50 days, I guarantee you they will do things differently.
Water patterns, planting patterns, fertilizing patterns, moving livestock to better places, etc, etc, etc.
I'm guessing you're not too familiar with farmers.
There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
Correllation is not Causation
Oh FFS, I wish this meme would die. I mean in particular the way people parrot it as a subsitute for insight.
No, correlation does not necessarily imply causation, but it does have predictive power, which is what TFA is about.
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