Slashdot Mirror
Ocean Temps Predict US Heat Waves 50 Days Out, Study Finds (ucar.edu)
An anonymous reader quotes a report from UCAR.edu: The formation of a distinct pattern of sea surface temperatures in the middle of the North Pacific Ocean can predict an increased chance of summertime heat waves in the eastern half of the United States up to 50 days in advance, according to a new study led by a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The pattern is a contrast of warmer-than-average water butting up against cooler-than-average seas. When it appears, the odds that extreme heat will strike during a particular week -- or even on a particular day -- can more than triple, depending on how well-formed the pattern is. "We found that we could go back as far as seven weeks and still predict an increase in the odds of future heat waves," said McKinnon, a postdoctoral research at NCAR and the lead author of the study. "What's exciting about this is the potential for long-range predictions of individual heat waves that gives society far more notice than current forecasts."
Light this morning, with increasing chance of darkness in the evening hours
I'm pretty sure knowing there's a higher than normal chance of a heat wave 50 days from know wouldn't alter my behavior or lifestyle in any way, and even people like farmers probably wouldn't change anything because:
a) 50 days out is a long time away, and
b) there still is only a relatively small chance a heatwave will actually occur. Unless it's summer, in which case heat waves always occur 80% of the time.
Chaos maximizes locally around me.
Correlation is enough for short-term prediction, which is all they're claiming.
But if ocean temperatures (which are rising) are the indicator to this prediction, you folks in the east had best be getting ready for more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves.
That is all.
Neither the summary nor TFA has a link to the actual paper. Insensitive clods, the both of 'em.
If, as the summary says, they could pinpoint it to a particular week, then this would actually be quite useful. People who are at increased risk of death during a heat wave (ex: elderly) would do well to get out of the area. Our normal 10 day (or less) forecast isn't much time to plan a vacation, but if you had 50 days notice (and could count on the timing of the forecast) then those people would have plenty of time to make vacation plans to get out of the area.
Similarly, in the summer we often take several small vacations which we plan only 3 or 4 weeks ahead. Taking a vacation during a heat wave would be miserable, so this sort of info (if fairly accurate) would be enough to convince me to plan a few weeks earlier/later.
If you tell a farmer that there's a heatwave coming in ~50 days, I guarantee you they will do things differently.
Water patterns, planting patterns, fertilizing patterns, moving livestock to better places, etc, etc, etc.
I'm guessing you're not too familiar with farmers.
There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
Correllation is not Causation
Oh FFS, I wish this meme would die. I mean in particular the way people parrot it as a subsitute for insight.
No, correlation does not necessarily imply causation, but it does have predictive power, which is what TFA is about.
SJW n. One who posts facts.
What drugs are you on? It's roughly half a growing season.
OF COURSE they're going to make changes.
There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
Data crunching is awesome and I'm all for looking for these patterns but they predicting a change in the odds from 1-6 to 1-4 "that a heat wave would strike somewhere in the eastern U.S. during a given week" betwen June and August.. I'm not sure how useful this is.