Slashdot Mirror
Tesla Says Model 3 Had 'Biggest One-Week Launch of Any Product Ever' (theverge.com)
An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Verge: Tesla announced Thursday that it has received 325,000 preorders for its recently unveiled Model 3. If it sells every car that's been reserved, the company says it will earn enough revenue to make this the "biggest one-week launch of any product ever." A few days ago, the electric car company was saying it had received twice the number of preorders it originally expected to get. Now it's quickly approaching three times that number, which raises questions about the company's ability to meet its increasingly complex production goals. If it can, it stands to make a boatload of money. Tesla says the number of preorders it has received so far corresponds to $14 billion in implied future sales.
IIRC the $1000 is refundable if they decide to pull out reasonably soon.
13m * $500 average cost = 6.5bn.
Tesla is claiming $14bn. Seems reality-based to me.
People bought the first infinity car sight unseen when they did those stupid car commercials that didn't even show the car or talk about it. This is not even close. The Tesla 3 was demonstrated at the launch event, the internet is littered with photos and reviews by people that attended the event and got to drive one. It is still 18months before full production but the tooling is being built right now so there probably won't be significant changes before the retail model is available. The same method was used on the Model S and it changed very little.
there are only 15 million cars sold in the USA every year. figure the dozens of models out there and this was a great launch
Airbus sold 85 A380 for $400m a pop. Emirates purchase 140 of them in 2015 again for $418m a pop. Thats at least 54billion in committed revenue.
They may have trouble keeping up. They hope to be able to satisfy 500,000 orders a year by 2020. They will need to fast track that considerably, but even at that rate Bloomberg says that EVs will displace over 2,000,000 barrels of oil a day by 2023. That would be enough to cause a crash in the oil market: https://youtu.be/NOPHHgJgJ2s
I mean, 8 years and your battery is almost a brick right?
No. It will have reduced capacity, but it will still be functional. The quoted estimate is around a 30% reduction in capacity after 8 years.
If the reduced capacity is great enough to be covered by the warranty, then Tesla will replace the battery for you. If not, you will have the option of either using the battery as-is, or purchasing a better replacement yourself (which will probably be expensive, but less expensive in 8 years than it is now since battery prices keep decreasing).
A gas car you can keep going for 15 to 20 years.
Modulo maintenance, gas, and the various parts you will have to repair or replace, or course.
I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
There are a lot of reasons to put the deposit down:
1. Low risk - fully refundable until actually placing configured order. The only risk is Tesla going under.
2. Early Model 3 car still qualify for up to $7,500 US government tax credit. After Tesla has produced 200K cars for US market (including all Model S and X) the rebate drops off fast.
3. With this strong demand, those who put the deposit down will get their cars up to 2 years earlier. First releases of a new model car tend to hold higher residuals as there are no older alternatives.
4. Some may hope to speculate, buy an early car and sell it for profit to those who will pay an extra couple of thousand for not waiting 2 years for the new, trendy car. Once the $7.5K rebate drops off, that's an extra $7.5K value for the person who did get it and is reselling the car to those who can no longer get it.
So, rather that collect 0.25% in a savings account, place a $1000 deposit, with low risk, but lots of potential upside. Why do people think that's crazy?
Refundable until the car goes into production.
By the time the car goes into production it will not be sight unseen. There will have been opportunities for test drives just like with the last two Tesla vehicles. I put down my deposit because in the worst case scenario I have $1000 in a non-interest bearing account for a couple years, and in a best case scenario I will likely be part of the last Tesla buyers who get Federal tax credits.
-- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
At a high level, the battery is damaged just a little bit each time it's charged. The amount of damage caused during charging is based on the temperature and how full the battery is. This means the longevity of a lithium ion battery is basically a function of how many times they are charged, the temperature, and if you charge it to 100% or only to 70%.
In the real world, with the Model S, people are reporting under a 20% degradation after 100k miles. It should last somewhere between 300k-500k before it's half dead.
As I understand it, as the battery capacity decreased, there should be a plan would be to install a new fresh battery pack, with the old one reused in a role for stationary storage, before finally being recycled.
However, the 380 purchase was not made all at once: 21 ordered in June 2003, and another 21 in November 2003 and so on. So this doesn't meet the requirement of "biggest one week launch ever".
Already in the works:
In an email sent out last night (see below), Tesla confirmed that following the overwhelming number of Model 3 reservations it received, the company is currently âoeincreasing its production plans to minimize the wait for Model 3â.
http://electrek.co/2016/04/07/...
Based on what? Pent-up interest in transitioning away from fossil fuels? The incredible price point? Tesla's good safety and reliability record? I don't see what's so hard to believe about these numbers.
I read the internet for the articles.
I keep fairly detailed records of the maintenance cost of my cars. My 2000 Toyota 4Runner, purchased in 2003, has cost me $13,479 in maintenance. I've put 140,000 miles on it. My 2007 Honda Accord has cost me $5174 with 95,000 miles put on it. This is excluding the purchase price and gas.
Purchase plus maintenance plus gas on the Accord comes out to about $0.37/mile. The 4Runner is $0.43/mile.
In theory the EV won't require nearly as much in maintenance cost and would save in gas so even if I had to buy a new battery for $8,000 every 8 years it would probably make sense.
In 10 years we'll laugh at these impatient people who couldn't wait a year to get the same car at a steep discount. Like Apple line people, Cabbage Patch line people, Tickle Me Elmo line people, etc.
W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
...that I've ever seen on Slashdot. And I clearly remember "No wifi, less space than a Nomad, lame".
I will meet you back here in 4 years and then stalk you through every thread reminding you of this prediction. This god awful, hilariously stupid fucking prediction.
Tesla sold more that 50K Model S's last year--and that's a car with an ASP north of $85K. This year they are selling more than 80K Model S's + Model X's (the ASP on Model X's is even higher). And you think they won't manage 50K of a car that starts at $35K? You sir, are an idiot.
Not like an everyday "noone is going to buy iPads" kind of idiot, but like a platinum-level "noone is going to buy these stupid Model T Fords" kind of idiot--the kind that only comes around once every 100 years or so.
The market returns around 7% on average. At best you will get 0% on this investment, and you'll overpay just for the honor of getting the first buggy models off of the assembly line. Good luck.
No, at best you get to buy a $35k car for $27,500 instead of $35k like everyone who did not put $1000 down. That is a pretty good deal. Even if your car isn't delivered until 6 quarters after the 200,001st Tesla is delivered, the tax incentive is still $1875. That is still quite the return on investment.
-- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
Don't forget that after the USA cars have been delivered, the rest of the world gets it. And they have different tax rules. And after that, if noone is in the queue anymore because all orders stop today, *then* you might get one. Might.
For tax reasons, I'm putting down $1000. That's a bit less in euro's and it provides me with a chance at a company car in my own company, that has no additional "car tax" of 60%, that has a very low "road use tax", that has (due to environmental taxes) just a third of the fuel cost of my current Prius, that will come with a tax rebate of 25% in addition to the other stuff. Oh, and maintenance cost are near zero. And if I drive it as a business car, it will only count towards personal income with 4% of the car's original value as opposed to 25% for regular cars.
So, I'm putting down $1000 dollar which in the worst case I will get just back (Tesla isn't going to go bankrupt when they can get a loan based on 14 billion dollar worth of pre-orders) without interest. In the best case I get what looks like the best car on the planet (*) for half the price of a regular car. That's not a bad opportunity cost at all.
(*) I used to drive a Mercedes when I worked for the company - the model S is a MUCH better car than the Mercedes S-class and Tesla is also much better for its customers.
Therefore, by the (faulty) logic you're using, you're just a cow with a keyboard - osu-neko (2604)
I understand your analogy, but in what way do you think this model will be shit? The specs already look much better than top of the line cars. Compared to the S, it's shorter. But most of the features of an S will still be on it.
Tesla doesn't have to do the regular "screw the customer" dance that I hated so much when working at Mercedes. They don't have to intentionally make a cheaper car less luxurious in order to justify the overpriced "luxury model". They don't have to avoid putting in a navigation so you have to put down $8000,- for the integrated navigation that's worse than the $100 garmin you buy in the store. They don't have to worry about cannibalizing sales of the model S and model X. Tesla can just sell the model 3 and make it as good as they possibly can, and become a huge car maker in the process because the competition is scared to match it.
The only company with a chance of catching up is Chevrolet and if you look at the Bolt you see the same attitude: it's intentionally made worse than it could be to avoid hitting the sales of their other cars. So if you base your attitude on the long standing practice of other carmakers I understand that. But Tesla is just not in the same position, and has a different strategy. So to assume the model 3 will be any less than the model S except in range and size is an assumption I don't share.
Therefore, by the (faulty) logic you're using, you're just a cow with a keyboard - osu-neko (2604)