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World's Largest Private Coal Company Files For Bankruptcy (reuters.com)

An anonymous reader writes: Peabody Energy Corp filed for U.S. bankruptcy protection on Wednesday after a sharp drop in coal prices left it unable to service debt of $10.1 billion, much of it incurred for an expansion into Australia. As demand for metallurgical coal fell, particularly in China, Peabody's financial woes intensified. The company took a $700 million write-down on its Australian metallurgical coal assets last year. At home, the U.S. shale boom of the past few years made natural gas competitive with thermal coal, and the Obama administration's environmental regulations raised operational costs. Mr. Peabody's coal train might not be hauling away any more of paradise. Peabody, the world's biggest private-sector coal producer, said it expected its mines to continue to operate as usual and said its Australian assets were excluded from the bankruptcy. "This process enables us to strengthen liquidity and reduce debt, build upon the significant operational achievements we've made in recent years and lay the foundation for long-term stability and success in the future," Peabody Chief Executive Officer Glenn Kellow said in a statement.

235 comments

  1. Yes, but will it be chap 11? by WindBourne · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Most of these are going in as chap 11. IOW, they are simply dropping their debt and then being allowed to go back to mining coal. Yet, the real issue is that the coal burning plants are closing left, right, and sideways. Last year, Coal accounted for around 30% of America's electricity. And at this rate of dropping, coal will account for about 15-20% in another 2 years (they expect about 1/2 of the plants to close over the next 2 years).

    So, unless these companies are jumping on other mining ventures, OR they are developing uses for coal, then these will be bankrupt in another 3-5 years. So, society is being stuck with these loses over and over.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    1. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We can use the Fischer-Tropsch process to convert the coal to more usable forms. We aren't going to just let all those delicious hydrocarbons go to waste.

    2. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Most of these are going in as chap 11. IOW, they are simply dropping their debt and then being allowed to go back to mining coal.

      That is a fair point, they aren't going out of business and the coal is still coming out of the ground.

      Yet, the real issue is that the coal burning plants are closing left, right, and sideways. Last year, Coal accounted for around 30% of America's electricity.

      33% to be exact... a few years ago it was 39%, indeed the percentage is dropping. But the question is: "What is it being replaced with?"

      The answer is natural gas, which to be honest I was shocked to see is also now at 33% of America's power generation. That used to be MUCH smaller.

      OR they are developing uses for coal

      Coal can be turned into synthetic fuel, it has many uses besides power.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      The irony is that 50 years from now, our cars might not run on gas derived from Petroleum, but rather from Coal. The irony... :)

    3. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by adolf · · Score: 2

      Coal began being replaced by natural gas as it got cheap because of fracking.

      Natural gas fracking expansions got ruined because of OPEC dumping crude.

      Now the coal suppliers have begun to fail, as the natural gas suppliers have begun to stop expanding.

      If OPEC (or Saudi Arabia -- whoever) doesn't stop dumping crude oil onto the market, natural gas suppliers will fail next.

      It's a vicious cycle, this, at it eats its young.

      But gas is still hovering around $2.00 per gallon stateside and home heating bills are down, so nobody cares...yet.

    4. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Stephan+Schulz · · Score: 5, Informative

      We can use the Fischer-Tropsch process to convert the coal to more usable forms. We aren't going to just let all those delicious hydrocarbons go to waste.

      The Fischer-Tropsch process can turn coal into liquid hydrocarbons, but it is not energy efficient. Its feedstocks are hydrogen (currently mostly produced at a loss from methane, i.e. natural gas) and carbon monoxide (produced from the coal). If you have the Hydrogen, you can just use it directly, e.g. in a fuel cell, and burn the coal for electricity or heat. The Fischer-Tropsch process is only interesting if you need liquid fuels, say for operating tanks or aircraft, and don't have more efficient sources.

      --

      Stephan

    5. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      FT is inefficient and expensive. Horrible idea.
      Instead, it is far more efficient and cheaper to do Great Point Energy. In addition, it produces clean CO2, along with a very concentrated set of elements that can be separated out and used.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    6. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by C0R1D4N · · Score: 2, Insightful

      We should have been investing in Nuclear, seeing as uranium is found mostly in more developed nations and not places filled with psychos and sheiks.

    7. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      skip using uranium. We can build gen IV reactors that use the 'spent' nuke waste and not have to mine anything for a couple of 100 years.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    8. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Daemonik · · Score: 1

      The irony is that 50 years from now, our cars might not run on gas derived from Petroleum, but rather from Coal. The irony... :)

      50 years from now the only people burning hydrocarbons for energy will be die hard nutjobs who put smokestacks on their electric cars so they can "burn coal" at people.

      Most cars will be electric, most electricity will be from wind, solar, tides or thorium, or some exotic source not yet invented, possibly fusion.

    9. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by jandrese · · Score: 1

      Or maybe we can just stop burning so much Coal and let renewables take its place as much as possible?

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    10. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by rtb61 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      This story is nothing to do with energy or coal but all about fiscal shenanigans. Track the debt and all other fiscal manipulations and you will likely see the big banks fingerprints all over this either directly or indirectly. Run up debts, pay to much for capital assets, dress it all up and the sell it to pension funds et al and the bet the whole thing will collapse and then buy back those capital assets at a discount, then sell them again at a high price and repeat. You will see this happen again and again and again. The electric car is taking over and fossil fuels days are numbered.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    11. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The rumors of the end of coal are a dream of some but just an exaggeration.

      https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/world-coal-consumption-to-2011.png

      The data points to the opposite being true, coal like oil is cheap and easy enough said.

      Peabody share price has taken a hammering due to too much debt but the failure of the company has nothing to do with the product. Coal will be around as long as it is cheap and easy, same with oil. In fact the more cars that go electric the more load on the grid and the more coal needed.

      Peabody info shows the obvious problem
      https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BTU
      Total debt: >6b (b is for billion)
      Market cap: 38.38m (m is for million)

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
      Type in symbol BTU to get Peabody (I don't know how to link to the right stock here.)

      However in all that the company turnover is >5.6b and the value of assets is at $47 per share (trading at ~$2 per share.)

      Problem is that if your share price drops too much your debts become overwhelming but all that said it is time to buy BTU (the shares will take a hit over this announcement I suspect then they have to go up as the company is onto a product in very high demand just unpopular.)

    12. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 3, Funny

      50 years from now the only people burning hydrocarbons for energy will be die hard nutjobs who put smokestacks on their electric cars so they can "burn coal" at people.

      That is easy to type, hard to make happen.

      Oh, it might happen in Denmark or Sweden... but world wide?

      Not likely...

      Most cars will be electric

      They will? Maybe... Considering that out of 75 million cars sold last year, 540,000 were plug in of something or other (things like the Prius Plug In Hybid), that is a steep hill to climb.

      most electricity will be from wind, solar, tides

      How do you plan to store it? Laptop batteries?

      The math says that isn't going to happen, the size and scale of the problem far exceed what can be done today.

      some exotic source not yet invented, possibly fusion.

      Ahh Fusion... in the 80s I was promised Fusion was only 20 years away... now it is 2016 and Fusion is only 20 years away! :)

    13. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 3, Informative

      We can use the Fischer-Tropsch process to convert the coal to more usable forms. We aren't going to just let all those delicious hydrocarbons go to waste.

      Link for anyone interested...

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    14. Re: Yes, but will it be chap 11? by rfengr · · Score: 1

      You mean "roll coal", like rollin' coal on a Prius.

    15. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Yes, but will it be chap 11? (Score:5, Insightful)

      The second paragraph in the article:

      The Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing ranks among the largest in the commodities sector since energy and metal prices began to fall in mid-2014 as once fast-growing markets including China and Brazil started to slow.

    16. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by tnk1 · · Score: 1

      Fusion is constantly overrunning costs and deadlines, but ultimately, its a matter of being able to find the right materials and ignition method for a fusion plant. We already know fusion works and we know that it is about as renewable as the so called renewables, we just keep being overly optimistic about the engineering challenges. We're also not spending all that much money on it. We're barely breaking the equivalent of 1978 spending levels on it.

      For instance, ITER sounds really expensive, until you realize that it only costs about the same as a handful of bombers. I'm not against bombers or military expenditure, but a energy source like fusion would be a big strategic advantage, easily worth spending the money on.

    17. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Harlequin80 · · Score: 2

      Thermal coal prices have been in the pits for ages. But coking coal prices held up for a long time until the steel market crashed. Currently coking coal is the best way for making steel and if we see a pickup in steel prices then coking coal will recover. Much of the coal that is in the basins mined by peabody in Australia are coking.

    18. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Yes it is about dropping debt - unfortunately this mostly translates to dumping pension and retirement promises made to the miners. Ought to be criminal.

    19. Re: Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Meanwhile, somebody please explain the 'environmental regulations' that supposedly play a part in this.

      I personally wish the administration would regulate some businesses more, especially financial ones, but the truth is they've done very little and yet conservatives love to cite 'regulations' or 'regulatory uncertainty' any time their precious free market fails them since their base is just convinced it must be true even absent any actual examples.

    20. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      Natural gas has almost always been cheap though. There was a brief period where the price went through the roof in the 90's, but overall it's been inexpensive. The main reason it wasn't used for power generation is because of that, meaning high market volatility. Hell at one point it was so worthless and cheap, it wasn't even worth capturing and was simply burnt off during oil extraction and that wasn't all that many years ago.

      It's not just because of OPEC that coal extraction companies are failing though. There are governments that are putting environmental rules into place that are causing the industry to go tits up. Alberta would be the most recent example here in North America, of course the AB government is pushing a bunch of coal power plants out of production as well but there is no slack in the system. It means they have to either build new plants, import electricity or allow them to keep running. And in the far north of Alberta it's the only local power generation method, it's also the only method that's reliable. There are no pipelines to ship NG, and rail in some cases may be the only way in or out.

      What get's me is the BBL price, and gas prices are still through the roof. Hell we're paying $4/US-Gal here in Canada on average for gas, but you can skip across the border and pick it up for $1.75/US-Gal(around $2.30CAD).

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    21. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      Canada is already doing this, either building new plants or refurbishing old plants with new reactors. But how many other countries are? How many are simply going no-no-no, no nuclear and driving up the price of electricity due to renewables.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    22. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Appreciate it! In fact from there is a link to an even more in-depth article.

    23. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes because we can generate electricity for free, in unlimited quantities. Screw unicorn farts, Electric cars run on wishes and dreams.

    24. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      For instance, ITER sounds really expensive, until you realize that it only costs about the same as a handful of bombers. I'm not against bombers or military expenditure, but a energy source like fusion would be a big strategic advantage, easily worth spending the money on.

      I live in Texas, I'm still bummed the Superconducting Super Collider was canceled! :)

      That was going to be built back in the 90s!

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      If you told me tomorrow, "no worries, we can make Fusion work, it'll only cost $10 trillion dollars over 10 years...

      I'd say "sold, when do we start?"

      It would be, in the long run, "cheap", compared to all the other options.

    25. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by EEPROMS · · Score: 3, Informative

      accept if you run the numbers that's not possible within the next 20 years. Even with China pumping out insane amounts of solar panels renewable's are hardly making a dent in the market. China, Africa and India's energy consumption growth numbers are just insane, for example just to keep up with china's growth you have to build the whole UK power grid every year.

    26. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It may come to that but energy prices would have to hit the point where no other option made fiscal sense. It'd be like a second Apollo program, and it'd need similar levels of public support.

      Captcha: Mottoes. A man, a plan, a fusion reactor, a shoe, a canoe...

    27. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Z00L00K · · Score: 1

      Personally I think that Chapter 11 is granted way too easy.

      --
      If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker would destroy civilization.
    28. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Kokuyo · · Score: 1

      Even if I did run the numbers, I doubt I'd accept that conclusion...

    29. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Chapter 11 means the lenders are stuck with the losses. That is exactly what you want from an environmental point of view: investors should see the coal business as a high-risk, low-reward business. Without new investments, existing mines will move to the terminal phase until existing investments are written off, at which point the mines will be closed.

      Businesses just don't shut down because they're no longer profitable; they're shut down because they no longer can sustain a positive cashflow.

    30. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by silentcoder · · Score: 4, Informative

      It made sense when South Africa used it extensively in the 1980s - it provided a way to get fuel for cars when the world refused to sell it to us. We had coal, we didn't have oil - and nobody would sell it, so we made our own from the coal.

      But I would not suggest the US implements vast-scale segregation and human-rights abuses in order to create a new market for coal... though if the company's asked nicely I'm sure Trump would consider it.

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
    31. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      it is not so much the price of renewables that is the problem, it is the devastation they are having on the environment. Everyone focus's on how clean they are to run and ignores how incredibly environmentally destructive they are too make.

    32. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by ThatsNotPudding · · Score: 2

      Yet, the real issue is that the coal burning plants are closing left, right, and sideways. Last year, Coal accounted for around 30% of America's electricity. And at this rate of dropping, coal will account for about 15-20% in another 2 years (they expect about 1/2 of the plants to close over the next 2 years).

      Leaving behind shoddy dams brimming with coal ash, chocked full of heavy metals to leach into the ground and water ways

      But don't worry; the taxpayers will always be there to foot the bill, so the former coal and power millionaire CEOs can sleep worry-free in their mansions.

    33. Re: Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The truth hurts.

    34. Re: Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      1. Solar is not the only renewable
      2. There are other countries besides China, Africa and India
      3. Numbers don't matter when it comes to saving the fucking planet and every living thing on it. The world is going to die and you're still worried about profit margins.

    35. Re: Yes, but will it be chap 11? by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      It is exactly why we need the gen IV reactors . these burn at 800c. That heat is perfect for separating the elements in that ash.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    36. Re: Yes, but will it be chap 11? by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      And those lenders then write off the losses. IOW, we, the other tax payers, are paying for this.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    37. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by nickersonm · · Score: 1

      Indeed, we spend almost nothing on it and expect it to achieve great things anyways.

    38. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by CanadianMacFan · · Score: 1

      They will still be mining coal but they are shipping it overseas instead of burning it for electricity in the US. All the filing for bankruptcy does is allow them to restructure their debts and to cut back on pension plans and health care packages. Basically the workers will get the shaft again.

    39. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, amazing how everyone misses the part where they talk about how it's metallurgical grade stuff.

    40. Re: Yes, but will it be chap 11? by gurps_npc · · Score: 2

      Basically it works like this.

      Coal itself is relatively cheap, mainly because it is a lot easier to transport - you can do it in trucks, not pipelines.

      The EPA has had reasonable restrictions on what any new coal plants can burn (does not affect old plants). They can't emit more than 1100 pounds per megawatt hour . Note, this compares with a 1000 lbs limit for natural gas plants.

      But to make a power plant that emits 10% more than natural gas plants emit, means the coal power plant costs so much money to run that it isn't worthwhile (compared to natural gas plants).

      If you remove that limitation, then new coal plants could be created, creating new demand for coal. This is the regulation they are complaining about.

      Yes, this regulation is clearly a good one, obviously MORE than fair, but if someone was stupid enough to eliminate that rule, someone might make more of a profit selling coal.

      Also, regulatory uncertainty is caused by the fact that sane people keep trying to apply this fair rule to EXISTING coal plants, not just the new ones.

      --
      excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
    41. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Damn, and I just bought a new coal burning car.

      I agree with your assessment of the financial shenanigans, but what a way to ruin a perfectly good argument with a talking point that belongs in a different industry (oil).

    42. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The electric car is taking over and fossil fuels days are numbered.

      So, you're suggesting that I trade in my coal-fired steam engine car for an electric?
      You DO realize that most of the electricity your car uses to charge is coming from coal or natural gas fired power plants, right?

    43. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 2

      That will happen when the human labor involved is lower.

      It's a difficult problem: when you have a more expensive technology, that technology requires more human labor. This holds true at higher demands; low-demand economics are strange, and require understanding of business economics of risk. Energy is *the* high-demand product, so we can assume any energy technology is necessarily high-demand: if it's cheaper than modern methods, everybody wants it.

      In short: Nuclear competes with Coal; Nuclear will replace Coal practically overnight when the combined cost of transitioning to Nuclear is cheaper than the un-sunk costs of maintaining a coal plant. (The resulting slow transition is a good thing, generally, unless you want to see the Great Depression first-hand.)

      If we move early by brute force, two things happen. First, the more labor-intensive technology requires a bigger chunk of the population, thus more wages (and taxes and shit) for the product (electricity), thus depriving that labor from producing other things. Second, the cost of paying all those wages raises the price of the product, and the consumer finds themselves with less remaining buying power, thus cannot buy other products and support the labor required to make those products.

      In short: we expend the same amount of time and money, but make fewer things. Your paycheck can buy less, and you become poorer. This isn't a matter of inflation or deflation; it's a matter of the sum total of all money buys a sum total of less stuff.

      The long and short of that is it creates more poverty and leads to starvation and homelessness, and thus incurs some deaths.

      On the other hand, some pundits argue other costs in environmental damage. As well, nobody really talks about the technological and economic debt: we could just keep chugging along as-is, let the tech evolve, then use the cheaper energy tech to put the genie back into the bottle. We could go atmospheric gas to liquid hydrocarbon fertilizer to grow wood to make structures. We could accept a government tax (a cost that has the same poverty-creating impact I cited above) to create a strategic energy reserve by siphoning a small amount of atmospheric carbon into liquid hydrocarbon and pumping it back into the same oil wells we initially emptied.

      Long, complex problems. You'll notice a few finance analogies in there if you look hard.

    44. Re: Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 1

      "Everything is gonna die"

      Whatever, dude. Some question whether anything needs to be done at all regardless. The current state of humanity is no friend to human life -- it is advancement and industrial activity that saves and extends lives and increases quality of life.

      Your kind of hyperbole no doubt, in your mind, deserves complete command and control of the economy.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    45. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Obligatory xkcd.

      If you look at the EIA data, you'll see the coal generation percentages by year (if you manually compute them from the data).

      2010: 45%
      2011: 42%
      2012: 37%
      2013: 39%
      2014: 38%
      2015: 32%

      That 6% drop from 2014 to 2015 was due mostly to many units closing due to the MATS EPA requirements (the Supreme Court ended up issuing a stay on that regulation, but only after generators had spent the money to upgrade the units they decided to keep open, and after many of the units were retired). There are some significant MATS-related retirements in 2016, but I would expect the retirements to drop off dramatically after that since the remaining units will have made those significant capital investments to meet the MATS requirements.

      If the Clean Power Plan survives and natural gas prices stay low that will likely lead to significant retirements by the early 2020's.

    46. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If only is was just the lenders that got stuck with the losses. Retirement benefits are classified as debt according to generally accepted accounting practices, so the retirees, present and future, lose all retirement benefits and the current owners go back to reaping profits without having to pay those benefits.

      Bankers are also classified as secured debt while retirees are classified as unsecured debt, guess who gets paid first if a company liquidates.

    47. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by oldmac31310 · · Score: 1

      an acceptional post.

      --
      http://www.acetonestudio.com
    48. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by wyHunter · · Score: 1

      No, hillary already has a white paper on it.

    49. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by wyHunter · · Score: 1

      Aren't your taxes based on the price of oil rather than an absolute value? Unfortunately the decline of the Loony means that it gets more expensive for you EVEN THOUGH YOU PRODUCE THE FREAKING STUFF. Gotta love it. NOT!

    50. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by wyHunter · · Score: 1

      A little while back ( year or three) I was flipping through a magazine from ... 1951 I believe. There was an article in there about the miracle energy source that was being researched at Cern - nuclear fusion, that would power the world of your grandchildren. Well it's 2016 and yeah, the grandkids should be here - but nuclear fusion will still power the world of your grandchildren :)

    51. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by silentcoder · · Score: 1

      Hillary wouldn't do it. Not because I think she is in any way morally above it - because she is utterly dependent on black votes. Even the Clintons aren't dumb enough to disenfranchise people they need to win elections.

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
    52. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      In 50 years there won't be any gasoline powered cars anymore. Except in some niche areas, e.g. Alaska or Siberia and a few old cars that are still in use in North Africa or something like that.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    53. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      How do you plan to store it? Laptop batteries?
      Renewables don't need storage, that is a /. myth.

      If you have enough generation that you even under worst case condition can produce 100% of the power you need: you don't need storage.

      If you produce significantly less than the 100%, lets say only 50%: storage is pointless.

      The only way to have a benefit from storage is to have very cheap and very huge storage and have a surplus production very often.

      As storage right now is "expensive" ... no one is going to accompany renewable plants with storage. Except if you count solar thermal with build in storage.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    54. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Renewables don't need storage, that is a /. myth.

      No it isn't... Renewables such as solar and wind fall under the category of non-dispatchable power sources, they are highly variable...

      You need storage because sometimes it is night time and the wind is calm. You need storage because parts of the country/world have large snow storms that neither wind nor solar will work during. During such a storm, large amounts of heat need to be generated. Currently this is done via natural gas, fuel oil, etc. in the North East, but to move away from that to electric will require massive amounts of electric for a week or two without any useful sun or wind power.

      The fact that the sun might be shining in Mexico does not help New York in January during a blizzard. Oh sure, if you magically could remove all political boarders and magically make an international power grid, maybe you technically could set that up. But that isn't going to happen, so you can't.

    55. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      In 50 years there won't be any gasoline powered cars anymore.

      Please pass what you're smoking... Seriously... it must be good stuff...

      Just saying that doesn't make it true, and frankly you are just hoping and guessing, the facts really don't back you up.

    56. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by wyHunter · · Score: 1

      It doesn't matter who votes, it matters who counts the votes.

    57. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by silentcoder · · Score: 1

      Fair point - in practice though, it's a LOT easier to make votes dissapear than it is to fake them. Which is why republicans have become such masters at it. There are a million legal ways to prevent somebody's vote from counting. Hell they got so good at it than in the last midterms they managed to secure a record number of state governments and record majorities in both houses - with a minority of the actual votes (and when you consider that republican turn-out was well above 70% in that election while democrat turnout was below 50% and democrats STILL got more votes - it spells a disastrous presidential election for them - dems tend to turn up well in those and state level gerrymandering isn't nearly as effective there).

      Remember that video in 2012 of Karl Rove looking shocked and refusing to believe the results as they came in - thinking it impossible that Romney could be so trounced ? Yeah... this year he'll probably have a heart attack.

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
    58. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by wyHunter · · Score: 1

      As opposed to the Democrats, who have people voting illegally, left and right. They are both despicable parties and I wish Sanders, Clinton, Trump, and Cruz, and all the members of their parties would climb on rockets for a vacation on Venus and never return.

    59. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by silentcoder · · Score: 1

      >who have people voting illegally, left and right.

      Actually that's just plain untrue. Voter fraud like that is extraordinarily rare - so incredibly rare that it has zero statistical impact on any elections. Even in countries with far worse infrastructure than the USA it's not a major factor. It takes a truly extreme idiot to try and do that, because the risks are incredibly high, the odds of getting caught are overwhelmingly against you - and the reward is insignificantly small.
      There just aren't enough people THAT dumb to have any impact whatsoever.

      Election fraud by *adding* votes is effectively non-existent, removing the OTHER guy's votes is far easier to do, far easier to get away with and far more effective. You see that happen in every election in every democracy. But fake voters don't happen often enough anywhere to have altered any election results in history. Hell even in Zimbabwe they don't try *that*.

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
    60. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by wyHunter · · Score: 1

      I have seen people voting irregularly in Colorado, Your data is wrong. In ten counties in Colorado in the 2012 election there were more votes than there were adults in the county - forget about registered voters. You are absolutely wrong.

    61. Re:Yes, but will it be chap 11? by silentcoder · · Score: 1

      And as a percentage was it ? What was the statistical impact of this ?

      Oh yes, that's right, not enough to change the outcome of any election - ever.

      About the largest election you could ever manipulate with fake votes is class president of a homeschool.

      On the other hand, you can achieve near guaranteed results by "losing" ballots, or making it hard for people to vote, or gerrymandering them into a district where they will be outnumbere - and achieve them on a massive scale. That's why THIS type of election fraud is common all over the world, and actually does change election outcomes.
      Why fake one or two, or even one or two hundred votes - and face a massive risk with little chance of actually changing the outcome, when you can easily make 2-thousand votes dissapear ?

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
  2. Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

    At home, the U.S. shale boom of the past few years made natural gas competitive with thermal coal, and the Obama administration's environmental regulations raised operational costs.

    At the end of the day, this is really the problem.

    Natural gas has grown in volume while going down in price over the past few years. Since electricity in the wire doesn't care about the source, as soon as gas becomes cheaper than coal, it is really hard to keep the coal plants running.

    Combine this with lots of environmental regulations that make it hard to turn a profit, and things like this are to be expected.

    ---

    The above being said, some people will say they WANT coal to cost more, because it is dirty and because they want a switch to wind and solar. While that is a lofty goal, it has to be balanced against the increased price of electric generation for your average citizen and against what might really replace coal.

    If coal is replaced by natural gas, that is "cleaner", in the sense that per KWh of power, you do emit less CO2, it isn't exactly a switch to green power.

    If you run the coal plants out of business too quickly, you simply end up with a shortage of electricity, leading to brownouts and blackouts. Wind and solar are being installed, but it will take many years before they approach the volume required to replace the 39% of electricity the US generated from coal in 2015.

    1. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Layzej · · Score: 1

      China is also dumping coal. See: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/... and http://www.smh.com.au/business...

      India is investing 1.2 billion in solar: http://cleantechnica.com/2014/...

      The third world was the last hope for the coal industry.

    2. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      If coal is replaced by natural gas, that is "cleaner", in the sense that per KWh of power, you do emit less CO2, it isn't exactly a switch to green power.

      Natural gas is cleaner than coal in a lot of ways other than CO2. It's still a net positive change for the environment.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    3. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Natural gas is cleaner than coal in a lot of ways other than CO2. It's still a net positive change for the environment.

      Sure, I'm not objecting to that change at all.

      Coal is probably better used for synthetic fuel, plastics, and chemicals, than it is for burning into fuel anyway...

    4. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      China is also dumping coal.

      I wouldn't put it quite that strongly...

      China is aware that 60% of their power can't come from coal, the smog is too bad.

      As it is, their coal imports are down a bit, but have a long way to go. I don't doubt they will keep dropping, but they will still be using coal for a long time to come.

      India is investing 1.2 billion in solar

      $1.2 billion isn't exactly a lot of money...

      The problem is math. People love to post stories like you did, without understanding the size and scale of the problem.

      You assume that if that keeps happening, then all will be fine. It won't be. The problem is larger than a solar plant here or a closed coal plant there.

    5. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by WindBourne · · Score: 2

      What is funny is that none of the Obama regulations has had ANY impact on coal plants, other than stopping new ones from being done. All of the closing are for 2 reasons:
      1) cheap nat gas, combined with cheap wind. Wind is MUCH cheaper than coal. In fact, I think that it is wrong to subsidize it anymore, but CONgress likes to waste money.
      2) W's regulation of requiring that coal plants emit NO MERCURY by 2016 was huge. Per the bill, they could get an extension of like 1-2 years, but only if they were putting in place controls, OR building a replacement plant. As such, that is why we are at 30% or less THIS year, and will be around 15-20% in another 2 years. At that time, 1/2 of the coal plants will close and be replaced, by either wind or nat gas.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    6. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      China is NOT kicking their coal habit. China opened up a bunch of new coal mines and simply increased local production. Even now, they continue to build new 1GW coal plants EVERY 7-10 DAYS. Yes, they are adding around 45-50 GW of new coal plant EACH YEAR. That will continue until 2030.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    7. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      I would argue the same for oil and nat gas. The idea of burning all this is just .... horrible. SO many things from hydrocarbons. And getting them cheap makes a huge difference.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    8. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 2

      Wind is MUCH cheaper than coal.

      I keep seeing people say this, do you have a source?

      In Texas (the leader in Wind in the US), we have the choice to buy power from many different companies, and can choose the source for our power.

      If I buy coal power for my office, my price is just over 7 cents per KWh. Wind? 10 cents per KWh.

    9. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Smidge204 · · Score: 3, Informative

      https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/...

      Levelized cost, which includes the cost of building, operating, maintaining and decommissioning the facility.

      This may not bear any sensible correlation to the price your utility charges you, depending on how dickish they feel that can get away with being.
      =Smidge=

    10. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Layzej · · Score: 1

      The trajectory is important though. Coal is losing steam, renewables gaining.

    11. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Thanks for the link, that was interesting...

      Cost per MHh

      Advanced Coal - $95.10
      Advanced Nuclear - $95.20
      Natural Gas - $75.20
      Wind - $73.60
      Solar (PV) - $125.30

      The problem with wind is that you cannot store it. Not really anyway. Texas is flat, pumped storage isn't an option here and not in the volumes that would be required. We already get 9% of our power from Wind. That might go to 20%, but without storage, it will have trouble going higher.

      Nuclear is the one that interests me the most. Reasonable cost, works 24/7, rain or shine, wind or no wind.

      Put the plants out in West Texas where there isn't anyone anyway and have at it... Water cooling becomes the primary issue, due to a lack of water out there, but beyond that issue, no one would notice or care if one melted down out there. :)

    12. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Layzej · · Score: 1
      Doesn't really matter how many coal plants they make if their coal consumption continues to fall:

      "But they’re unlikely to be used to their maximum since China has practically no need for the energy they would produce. Coal-fired electricity hasn’t increased for four years, and this year coal plant utilization fell below 50%. It looks like this trend will continue, with China committing to renewables, gas and nuclear targets for 2020 — together they will cover any increase in electricity demand." - http://energydesk.greenpeace.o...

    13. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      I would argue the same for oil and nat gas. The idea of burning all this is just .... horrible.

      I agree... but every time I offer to build more nuclear, everyone goes all ape at me...

      The sad thing is that people who love the environment (and for the most part, I think they do), miss the choices on offer.

      While I'm happy to have Wind and Solar be a larger share of the energy mix, there will come a point where they are hard to increase further due to the inability to store large amounts of power for any length of time.

      So it really comes down to: "Do you want to burn dead dinos, or build nuclear reactors?"

    14. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      The trajectory is important though.

      Yes it is, but so are the total numbers...

      People probably read my posts and think that I'm against Wind and Solar. I'm not.

      I'm simply against bad math. Wind makes up about 5% of the power in the US. I can see this increasing to 10% over the next 10 years.

      Solar makes up nearly nothing, but it will likely increase to 5% over the next 10 years.

      In 20 years, the two of them combined may well be 20% of our total power production. Maybe 30% in 30 years. But it will hit a wall somewhere around there, they are not dependable enough to be our primary power sources.

      To have 24/7/365 power, you need something that runs all the time. Wind and Solar aren't it.

      ---

      The above is just the US, the situation is better in Europe, but far worse in the rest of the world. The total numbers are just ugly and everyone loves to talk about percentage changes and "cuts from prior levels", but no one wants to talk about total numbers and math.

      The US output over 5 billion metric tons of CO2 last year. To simply stop the rise of CO2 at 450 PPM would require an 80% cut to 1 billion metric tons of CO2 by 2050. And it also requires EVERYONE ELSE IN THE WORLD DO IT AS WELL.

      That is not going to happen.

    15. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Layzej · · Score: 1
      Robert E Murray of Murray energy: "Mackenzie and company just issued a report on all of the coal industry. We are bankrupt. The industry is bankrupt. Indeed we are 45 billion dollars short of the funds needed to fund our debt, our employee related, and our reclamation liabilities. 45 billion short, and as a whole the industry is bankrupt" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

      coal will continue to be burnt for a time to come, but consumption will continue to dwindle. Ultimately the coal companies will be left with stranded assets. Not a good investment at any price.

    16. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by tnk1 · · Score: 1

      Says Greenpeace.

      There's only one group that matters when you talk about China and that is the Party and they are building plants. We will see how the predictions go.

    17. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      If coal is replaced by natural gas, that is "cleaner", in the sense that per KWh of power, you do emit less CO2, it isn't exactly a switch to green power.

      If you run the coal plants out of business too quickly, you simply end up with a shortage of electricity, leading to brownouts and blackouts. Wind and solar are being installed, but it will take many years before they approach the volume required to replace the 39% of electricity the US generated from coal in 2015.

      And yet we hear about utilities having issues with solar power, and private wind power. You can have all of the power shortges you want because you know that without coal, there will be shortages. I am a dumbass, because I'll just put up more solar panels and supply what I need, all owned by me, and not a utility, for which I'll just get along fine.

      http://grist.org/climate-energ...

      I think the problem is you are stuck in a paradigm from maybe 1970. Solar power is for satellites, wind doesn't exist, and battery technology is zenithed out at ni-cads.

      But time doesn't stand still. I already use a lot less electricity than I used to. Everything in the house is as efficient as you can get, lights are LED, and I've increased the quality of life by doing so.It isn't just solar becoming cheaper and more efficient, the generation/use equation has the parts moving toward each other.

      As soon as the battery technology gets to the right price point, I'm cutting the power company completely off. In the meantime, the more people who are not on the grid, the less power generation needed. That solves part of your problem.

      Another issue is that if you don't build in an area already with electrical service - well it isn't the days of the rural electrification project any more. You get to pay the cost of the poles and running the wires. So in today's world, solar is quite often the most cost effective installation.

      Times aren't just a-changin, they have changed.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    18. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Harlequin80 · · Score: 1

      However in absolute terms if you have a look at coal exports out of Australia to total tonnage has increased every year. So while coal may make up a smaller % of power generation the total amount being mined and exported is increasing. http://www.minerals.org.au/res...

    19. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      $1.2 billion isn't exactly a lot of money...

      The problem is math. People love to post stories like you did, without understanding the size and scale of the problem.

      You assume that if that keeps happening, then all will be fine. It won't be. The problem is larger than a solar plant here or a closed coal plant there.

      Exactly. It's a lot of solar panels and wind turbines. And a non-gridded paradigm.

      1970 called and thanked you for the support.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    20. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Harlequin80 · · Score: 1

      The only reason their coal consumption fell off was because of the crash in the steel price. They dramatically cut their coking coal consumption. Their coal consumption for energy production increased significantly and absorbed much of the decrease in coking coal use. Should steel prices rise then coking coal consumption with recover.

    21. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by mspohr · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The problem is that the coal industry is leaving taxpayers with pension obligations and mine cleanup obligations. They will go bankrupt and leave us with the bill.
      Remember Capitalism = Privatize Profits and Socialize Losses

      --
      I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
    22. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I agree... but every time I offer to build more nuclear, everyone goes all ape at me...

      That's because you aren't qualified. Who do you think you are, David Hahn?

      The sad thing is that people who love the environment (and for the most part, I think they do), miss the choices on offer.

      Nuclear had billions in handouts under Bush, and after all that, one reactor is soon to be added to the US energy pool. It was originally supposed to be constructed in the 1980s, but the TVA whiffed on it. And even then, it's years behind. Vogtle and Summer won't likely make it till 2019 at the earliest. At least they'll be new designs, though the promises of being super-modular and easy to build didn't quite pan out.

      Sorry, but it seems that nuclear just wants more money poured down the drain, without being timely or responsive.

      At least if I get a solar tax credit, I'll have something that year.

      While I'm happy to have Wind and Solar be a larger share of the energy mix, there will come a point where they are hard to increase further due to the inability to store large amounts of power for any length of time.

      Actually, right now the big issue is the grid itself. Texas alone has lots of wind turbines that have nowhere to send the power. Tres Amigos may alleviate some of that, though.

      So it really comes down to: "Do you want to burn dead dinos, or build nuclear reactors?"

      It's not just building them, it's operating them. That's where China is having big problems. They don't have the qualified personnel.

    23. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      I think the problem is you are stuck in a paradigm from maybe 1970. Solar power is for satellites, wind doesn't exist, and battery technology is zenithed out at ni-cads.

      I'm not, but I can understand why you might think so...

      Solar and Wind are fine, we will continue to build them out until they are perhaps 30% of our total power mix. They may run into problems at 25%, or may extend to 35%, but beyond that you run into dependability issues.

      Batteries are nice for your home, but your home is not the primary energy user in the US.

      But time doesn't stand still. I already use a lot less electricity than I used to. Everything in the house is as efficient as you can get, lights are LED, and I've increased the quality of life by doing so.It isn't just solar becoming cheaper and more efficient, the generation/use equation has the parts moving toward each other.

      I too have gone to LEDs and I also now make purchase decisions based partly on power consumption.

      However, not everyone can make a massive difference in their total power usage. There is little that I can economically do to my home to get my power usage down much further. The windows may be next, but it'll cost over $10,000 to replace them all and the savings, while real, takes time to add up.

      As soon as the battery technology gets to the right price point, I'm cutting the power company completely off.

      First, residential power consumption is only part of it. Commercial power use is far higher than home use, so even if every home got off the grid (they won't, but lets pretend), you wouldn't cut power use as much as you think.

      Second, you likely won't be allowed to leave the grid. Already in some parts of the country laws are being passed to force people to stay connected. As more people try and leave, this will only continue.

      Times aren't just a-changin, they have changed.

      Not that much... Renewables in 1998 were just over 11% of US power generation. In 2015 they were 13.44%. It is a nice increase, but not THAT much.

      At the end of the day, it doesn't actually matter what you do. To stop CO2 at 450 PPM, the whole planet needs to cut CO2 output by 80%. That might not be possible, no matter how much money everyone is willing to spend (and lets be honest, a whole lot of people aren't even willing to try).

      I'm not telling you CO2 is good, it isn't... I'm telling you what reality is...

    24. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Exactly. It's a lot of solar panels and wind turbines. And a non-gridded paradigm.

      1970 called and thanked you for the support.

      There is "a lot", then there is "a lot lot".

      You should try the math and see how many solar panels and wind turbines would be required to make a difference.

      It is something on the order of one million panels... per day, every day, for the next 35 years... 10,000 wind turbines a week, and a nuclear reactor every other day, for 35 years...

      That is what it would take to cut CO2 output by 80% in 35 years.

      You're missing a few orders of magnitude with your plans...

    25. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by TroII · · Score: 1

      Says Greenpeace.

      When Greenpeace says the sky isn't falling after all, it goes entirely against their agenda, so it might be the only time to take them at face value. Imagine if MADD put out a story saying drunk driving is at an all time low, they aren't likely to be lying about that, because scaring people into thinking the opposite is how they get funding. If even Greenpeace is willing to say China's coal consumption is decelerating, they're probably onto something.

    26. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by kuzb · · Score: 1

      "The problem with wind is that you cannot store it. Not really anyway. "

      I don't know what rock you've been living under, but batteries have been a thing for decades now.

      --
      BeauHD. Worst editor since kdawson.
    27. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      I don't know what rock you've been living under, but batteries have been a thing for decades now.

      Again, you fail to understand the size and scope of the problem.

      Take Tesla's new Gigafactory, which is designed to more than double world-wide battery production...

      It will produce 35 billion watt hours worth of batteries a year. To provide battery backup of 14 days to the whole planet would require 22 years worth of production from that factory.

      And that also would require replacing and redesigning much of the world's power grids. I'll let you figure out what the bill for that would be.

    28. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Z00L00K · · Score: 1

      What's MHh?

      Do you mean MWh (MegaWatt hours)?

      --
      If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker would destroy civilization.
    29. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Do you mean MWh (MegaWatt hours)?

      Yes...

    30. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Smidge204 · · Score: 2

      To provide battery backup of 14 days to the whole planet

      What the fuckity fuck kind of absurdity is this? If the wind stops blowing and the sun stops shining and the waters stop flowing everywhere on the planet for two weeks straight we all have MUCH BIGGER PROBLEMS to worry about.

      Winds are forecastable and, amazingly, wind farms tend to be built where the winds are fairly consistent. It's almost like that consider this when planning them.

      Chemical batteries aren't the only tool we have for storing power, either. Pumped hydro, compressed air, hydrogen, thermal storage, magnetic storage and flywheels are all viable options depending on the specific requirements and all of them have been scaled up to utility grade storage facilities... and storage is nowhere near as critical for renewable energy as everyone seems to think.

      And that also would require replacing and redesigning much of the world's power grids.

      No, it wouldn't.
      =Smidge=

    31. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by religionofpeas · · Score: 1

      Of course, we wouldn't use lithium batteries for large scale storage. Instead, we'd use cheap molten salt batteries.

    32. Re: Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Green peace is lying about China to try to pressure western politics by comparison. It's not as though anyone in China gives a shit about what gwai lo hippies think anyway.

    33. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Of course, an industry so heavily government controlled at every single level is capitalism, right? I mean, when the president declares war on your industry as part of a genocidal campaign against your employees (yes, it's a deliberate destruction of Appalachian culture) then that's clearly a failure of capitalism, right?

    34. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How's life in la la land? In the real world, moving electricity a thousand miles is very expensive, and the grid in most places is very close to capacity. The quantity of hydro is small and as a fraction of power production shrinking. We have enough data to determine how often these events occur and it's a huge problem, just unlikely inside of 20 years. But go ahead and press your hopey changey I believe button and make the problem not be a problem.

    35. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by nateman1352 · · Score: 1

      The problem is that the coal industry is leaving taxpayers with pension obligations and mine cleanup obligations.

      In this case Peabody is essentially asking the court to take shares away from its current stockholders so that Peabody can then give those shares to their debtors as repayment for their debt. So in this case anyway, the current investors are the ones being f'd, not the US taxpayer.

    36. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Oh, alas! If only the government hadn't forced us to clean up our act, we'd have cleaned up on our own!"

      I suggest you find a new calling because Shakespeare you ain't.

    37. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by kuzb · · Score: 1

      Obviously you'd roll out in stages. Something like this couldn't happen overnight - it would probably take decades. Ultimately it may (as you say) not scale well enough. However that wasn't my point.

      The point is that your statement that you "can't store it" is complete and total bullshit. It makes me think you're an idiot with exactly zero knowledge on the subject.

      --
      BeauHD. Worst editor since kdawson.
    38. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Smidge204 · · Score: 1

      In the real world, moving electricity a thousand miles is very expensive

      Yet we already do it, everywhere. Grand parent was asserting we'd have to modify the grid substantially, which is simply not true.

      and the grid in most places is very close to capacity

      Irrelevant; We would not be increasing grid capacity and faster than is already necessary, only displacing existing capacity with new sources.

      The quantity of hydro is small and as a fraction of power production shrinking.

      Also irrelevant.

      We have enough data to determine how often these events occur and it's a huge problem, just unlikely inside of 20 years

      What events? The sun vanishing for two weeks straight? I don't think there's any precedent for that...
      =Smidge=

    39. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by mspohr · · Score: 1

      They are escaping significant environmental cleanup obligations as this article in the Washington Post explains:
      https://www.washingtonpost.com...

      Also this:
      Peabody’s Chapter 11 filing may also excuse it from its environmental cleanup obligations, which total nearly $1.4 billion, according to the company’s SEC filings. “Bankruptcy restructuring could provide coal companies with a way of escaping obligations to restore land,” according to Steven Mufson and Joby Warrick of the Washington Post. According to the Sierra Club, the company has $900 million unfunded cleanup liabilities in Wyoming alone, and public interest groups plan to monitor the Chapter 11 proceedings to pressure the company to keep its obligations.

      --
      I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
    40. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by wyHunter · · Score: 1

      But it was the socialists currently in power that bankrupted them, so can you blame them?

    41. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Of course, we wouldn't use lithium batteries for large scale storage. Instead, we'd use cheap molten salt batteries.

      And they will hold power for a month? For 10 million people?

      And they will cost how much? Who will pay for that?

    42. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      What the fuckity fuck kind of absurdity is this?

      It wouldn't seem absurd if you used your brain and actually thought about the problem from a real world point of view.

      We are simply not going to get a single world-wide power grid with storage and transmission lines moving it all over the place. That will not happen.

      It won't even happen regionally in many places. Power produced in South America isn't going to North America, power produced in Europe isn't going to Asia, etc.

      Winds are forecastable and, amazingly, wind farms tend to be built where the winds are fairly consistent. It's almost like that consider this when planning them.

      Well, the facts do not agree with you... Texas has more wind than any other state, but it is highly variable, sometimes we don't have enough and have to run gas turbines to make up for it, other times they have too much and actually give the power away.

      So you're simply wrong.

      And thus we have the problem. So many people THINK they understand this stuff, we won't get any solutions while people such as yourself flail about in the wind on hopes and dreams while allowing real solutions to elude you.

    43. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Smidge204 · · Score: 1

      It wouldn't seem absurd if you used your brain and actually thought about the problem from a real world point of view.

      You're the one that needs to think: TWO WEEKS. No sunshine for two weeks!

      And power is ferried thousands of miles, at least across the North American grid. So if not the entire planet, then at least an entire *continent* would need to succumb to darkness. For two weeks.

      Elsewhere you alluded to a whole month of capacity being necessary. If you're anywhere other than inside the arctic circle that simply is NOT going to be an issue.

      All the battery storage in the world isn't going to save us from the apocalypse.

      Well, the facts do not agree with you...

      "Forecastable" and "fairly consistent" are not synonyms for "constant." With wind, we have a good handle on reliability (consistency) and have reasonably good tools to determine when shortfalls or outages will occur (forceastability). This means we can plan accordingly so the lights don't go out if the winds die down.

      Natural gas is currently used because it's cheap and responds quickly. So be it.

      If you wanted to use a battery system instead, you certainly would not need TWO WEEKS worth of backup capacity to cover you.

      And as I said, you wouldn't even need to use batteries necessarily; there are other storage systems that would work just as well.

      real solutions to elude you

      Solutions like... what? By your logic we'd already be in the dark, since there does not exist a single power source with a capacity factor of 100%. Don't place nonsensical, fanciful requirements on a system and claim it will never work.
      =Smidge=

    44. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      The other point that you miss is that BOTH Wind and Solar depend on the sun. If the sun is gone, then wind dies. So, imagine if Yellowstone blows. Right when we need energy the most, we lose it all. HUGE mistake. Just HUGE.
      In addition, the ability to burn up the 'nuke waste', and use the intense heat of 800 C to reclaim the coal ash cheaply, to grab minerals out of desalinated waters, to grab minerals out of geo-thermal waters, etc. etc. etc is just a horrible waste if we do NOT do this.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    45. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      You're the one that needs to think: TWO WEEKS. No sunshine for two weeks!

      Yep, there are plenty of places the sun doesn't shine for a month. Major snow storms, overcast skies, etc.

      People have no interest in going from 24/7 dependable power to "almost maybe kinda" dependable power.

      There are times when the sun and wind are not dependable enough, we are simply not going to use them for 100% of our power needs.

    46. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Obviously you'd roll out in stages. Something like this couldn't happen overnight - it would probably take decades.

      Sure, but that misses the point...

      1. Who is going to pay for it...

      2. We don't HAVE decades to wait for it...

      The point is that your statement that you "can't store it" is complete and total bullshit.

      You can't store it using current technology and current economies of scale.

      Really, did I have to say that part? It should have been obvious.

    47. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Rakarra · · Score: 1

      A genocide, a deliberate destruction of Appalachian culture? You kidding?

      It's about coal. If Appalachian culture is so tightly woven to coal mining that it CANNOT survive without lots of coal mining, then maybe you don't have culture. It's certainly not worth continuing to mine coal just to "keep alive Appalachian culture."

    48. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      With regards to the last few power interruptions I've experienced, they've mostly* been attributed to storms and weather.

      Mostly because people put up with a lack of underground wires. So compromise. But some others have been the local power generation units having issues that cause a shutdown.

      *The one exception to the above that I can confirm was a man apparently attempting to acquire copper from a substation.

    49. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by kuzb · · Score: 1

      Hey, fuckface, what does that have to do with anything that I'm saying? You can store electricity. You've been able to do that for decades and decades now. Wise the fuck up.

      --
      BeauHD. Worst editor since kdawson.
    50. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      You can store electricity.

      Not at the size and scale required for all solar/wind and not for a price that people will actually pay.

      So no, you really can't, not in this case.

    51. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So the disagreement isn't on technical, but on costs?

      Ok, you hire your experts, somebody else will hire theirs, and never the twain shall meet.

    52. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Smidge204 · · Score: 1

      People have no interest in going from 24/7 dependable power

      So such thing exists. If it seems that way, it's only because of huge diversity, both in source and location. (yet somehow I'm the one who doesn't understand how this works...)

      Renewables are no different. Diversity in technology and location goes a long, long way to cover the shortfalls of individual plants.
      =Smidge=

    53. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Neither China not India are "third world" countries.
      China probably has still parts that are very backyard. But both countries are developed nations since 15 to 20 years.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    54. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      If you run the coal plants out of business too quickly, you simply end up with a shortage of electricity, leading to brownouts and blackouts.
      That is nonsense.
      The coal plants do not magical disappear. In case of energy shortage, the prices rise and power companies start up coal plants.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    55. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      China is aware that 60% of their power can't come from coal, the smog is too bad.
      The smog comes from heavy industries and cars and households, not from coal plants.

      As it is, their coal imports are down a bit, but have a long way to go.
      China is a coal exporter, not an importer.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    56. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      To have 24/7/365 power, you need something that runs all the time. Wind and Solar aren't it.

      This was debunked on /. already thousands of times.

      Wind does "run" all the time. The USA is far far far far to big to be windless everywhere. That is physically impossible. A single state is already to big, to have no wind all over. Except perhaps NYC, as it is small, on the other hand it is at the coast, so it _always_ has wind.

      The idea that you can not run a country from wind power alone is completely idiotic.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    57. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      the prices rise and power companies start up coal plants.

      If they are out of business, how do they do that?

      They take time to turn on and off, if off for very long, the employees start going away.

      You end up in a position of having to pay for it to keep it on standby, or you lose it completely.

    58. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      This was debunked on /. already thousands of times.

      No it hasn't. People love to post opinions as if they were fact, but that isn't debunking anything.

      Wind does "run" all the time. The USA is far far far far to big to be windless everywhere.

      The USA doesn't have a national power grid and due to political reasons, won't any time soon.

      While there is wind in places, there isn't enough to power everyone across the country without overbuilding 4 or 5 times more than is needed.

      Wind isn't "cheap" anymore if you have to build 400% of the required load, then completely redesign the national power grid.

      A single state is already to big, to have no wind all over.

      Well, you're wrong. I know you have this crazy German view of things and believe a lot of nonsense you're told, but you're just wrong.

      I live in Texas, we get 9% of our total power in Texas from Wind, yet we still have to have natural gas turbines on stand-by for those times when the wind isn't enough.

      At times, the wind is too much and they give the power away, other times they produce very little and that gap has to be made up with gas turbines.

      That is one reason why Wind actually costs more than coal power in Texas, you have to have backup power to keep online if the wind stop blowing.

      The idea that you can not run a country from wind power alone is completely idiotic.

      You may think so, but you thinking so doesn't make it true.

    59. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      In software engineering we call building a nuke plant a "big bang solution", no pun intended.

      What does that mean? 10 years of planning, 10 years of permit approval, 10 years of construction and then: wow in a big bang you have 1GW more power. Depending on how many reactors you built at that side at once. With luck you can perhaps reduce the total time from 30 years to 15 ... construction can hardly be reduced much.

      On the other hand wind plants can be installed one by one. So instead of having 1 GW installed - or 4 - after 30 years, you get 1 GW every year, continuously. So after the same time span you have 30 or more GW installed.

      Yes, you can plan and start your big bang with the goal to build up dozens or hundreds of nuke plants, but so you can with wind.

      Wind and solar is simply easier to install and attach to the grid.

      For that matter: it is no difference if we are talking about wind or coal or other plants. Every large scale installation is a "big bang" and takes decades.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    60. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      When Yellowstone blows up, rest assured, you in particular, have more server problems then the question how you produce power, or more precisely: if you even have electric power.

      the ability to burn up the 'nuke waste',
      That ability does not exist, it is a /. or wikipedia myth. If you put 100pounds of material into a reactor then not even a single gram is going to "disappear" during the reaction(s).
      In the end you have to remove what ever is left of that block of 100pounds - 1 gram and deposit it somewhere.

      No idea where that idiotic idea comes from that matter magically disappears in a nuclear fission reactor.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    61. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Wind is MUCH cheaper than coal.

      I keep seeing people say this, do you have a source?

      If someone is saying that, he is usually talking about production cost not about your price as a customer.

      If you pay more for wind then you likely are ripped of by "if you want to be green, you have to pay more" marketing.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    62. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      The problem with wind is that you cannot store it.
      You can't store nuclear or coal power either ... you should simply learn: the need for storage is a myth.
      Why would you need storage, hm? Can you explain?

      If a coal plant produces to much power you shut it down, you don't store the power.
      Why would wind be any different?

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    63. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      And they will hold power for a month? For 10 million people?

      That is a pretty weird question.

      You want to tell us Texas has only 10 million inhabitants? Well Germany has 80.

      You want to tell us that a country 4 times the size of german (or is it 10 times?) ... oh my fault ... 'state' has not enough wind or sun to support a mere 10 millions?

      Who cares about the cost? We had that discussion already. You come over as a greedy bastard. If your house lacks a certain compliance for a regulation regarding fire, you have for fuck sake build it. Regardless of costs.

      You always want to tell me that "the richest country of the world" can not afford to switch to renewables when the rest of the world is showing you how to do it.

      That is schizophrenia!!!

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    64. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Power produced in South America isn't going to North America, power produced in Europe isn't going to Asia, etc
      That is wrong.

      Europe, Asia and Siberia and North Africa are interconnected in the largest synchronized grid of the world.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      You americans are just very very very backyard yahoos.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    65. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Yep, there are plenty of places the sun doesn't shine for a month. Major snow storms, overcast skies, etc.

      In Texas?
      Stupid me, should have watches the western movies more carefully.
      My fault. I'm ashamed. (*facepalm*)

      , we are simply not going to use them for 100% of our power needs.
      No there are not. As plenty of nations mainly getting their power from Solar and Wind show you: Portugal, Denmark, Germany.
      And on top of that plenty of nations are switching like China, India, Thailand, Bangladesh ... wow "3rd world countries" show the mighty USA how to produce power in future.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    66. Re:Cheap natural gas and expensive regulations... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The USA doesn't have a national power grid and due to political reasons, won't any time soon.

      Tres Amigas would address a lot of that.

      Wind isn't "cheap" anymore if you have to build 400% of the required load, then completely redesign the national power grid.

      California's experience with Enron's manipulations prove that is already necessary.

      I live in Texas, we get 9% of our total power in Texas from Wind, yet we still have to have natural gas turbines on stand-by for those times when the wind isn't enough.

      Wind turbines are not enough in Texas now, and your grid needs improvement, yes. There's even a town in Texas that has a giant battery ALREADY because their connection isn't reliable enough.

      This has nothing to do with wind. Your transmission system isn't adequate enough for everybody. Nor generation, especially since you have a rather bothersome spike due to local conditions.

  3. Ironic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I just replaced my two electric furnaces with coal stoves. They are cheaper to run, and it's not "dirty" or "sooty" or anything like that. It's a very high quality of heat.

    Next year, I'm going to replace my brother's electric furnace with a coal stove too. I'm a coal convert.

    1. Re:Ironic by NotInHere · · Score: 1

      Well perhaps all the assets are auctioned and you can buy a cheap coal mine or two, then you have more than enough coal for your stoves.

    2. Re:Ironic by Daemonik · · Score: 1

      Enjoy the radioactive fly ash. Who needs to visit Fukushima when you can reenact it in your own home?!

    3. Re:Ironic by toddestan · · Score: 1

      Electric furnaces are expensive to run, at least any place that gets cold. Electricity is expensive, and they aren't very efficient. On the upside they are simple, low maintenance, and run clean (at the point where the heat is generated). But there's a reason why almost everyone here uses natural gas or propane for heat.

      I would have probably gotten a heat pump myself if natural gas/propane wasn't feasible.

  4. Wish I could do that... by BlueCoder · · Score: 1

    How did they do it? Sounds like they invested heavily in Australia and neglected everything else. How did they keep it exempt from the bankruptcy?

    In other words how can I buy a new home and get to keep it after a bankruptcy?

    1. Re:Wish I could do that... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do it in Florida, like OJ.

    2. Re:Wish I could do that... by Daemonik · · Score: 1

      Become a corporation.

    3. Re:Wish I could do that... by Harlequin80 · · Score: 2

      Because in Australia Peabody formed an equity partnership with Mitsui & Co, a japanese energy company, and Thiess Holdings an Australian domestic civil and mining contractor. As a result the Australian operations are not 100% owned by peabody and hence have to be treated as separate entities. Peabody's ownership of those operations will be represented as an asset in shares on the parent companies books. They could potentially be forced to divest some of those shares but that should not affect Australian operations.

  5. I'm sorry my son, but you're too late in asking by turkeydance · · Score: 1

    Mister Peabody's coal train has hauled it away........ Read more: John Prine - Paradise Lyrics | MetroLyrics

    1. Re:I'm sorry my son, but you're too late in asking by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or listen to the song, link is in the summary.

  6. Bond investors will be left with a lump of coal by JoeyRox · · Score: 1

    Literally and figuratively.

  7. Plastics are about to be a million times cheaper. by BlueCoder · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Coal is a very cheap hydrocarbon. Very easy and cheap to extract. So it's the most ideal resource for processing new plastics from. Once energy production drops from coal expect plastics to be used even more as they will be cheaper. Imagine plastic effused concrete.

    We might actually be heading into the true plastics era. You ain't seen nothing yet.

  8. $10 billion debt ? by swell · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Who in this century had the misplaced wisdom to invest $10B in this coal company? How is it possible to be so blind to the changing tide in the energy world? Whatever . . . I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell them if you can find these investors for me.

    --
    ...omphaloskepsis often...
    1. Re:$10 billion debt ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It would have come from greed around Iron Ore and metallurgical coal prices of a few years ago. Many companies were massively expanding and investing to try and get a slice of what was a huge pie, All of a sudden reality kicked in and prices started to drop (not unexpected), however the rate of the drop was unexpected. They expected prices to gradually reduce over a number of years, instead they plummeted due to massive oversupply by the big miners (basically they all cut each others throat and are now watching as they all bleed to death).

    2. Re:$10 billion debt ? by Harlequin80 · · Score: 1

      Because even at current market valuations which have massively slashed the value of their assets, Peabody has an asset valuation of over $12 billion. Also while coal may be being supplanted in the energy space in the developed world the total quantity of the seaborne coal trade is still increasing year on year. It is why there are ongoing proposals in Australia to open new coal mines.

    3. Re:$10 billion debt ? by religionofpeas · · Score: 1

      Big investments are often done with somebody else's money. It's a lot easier that way.

  9. Renewable Energy in the US by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 2

    Since someone will bring it up, might as well be me.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    Worth a look, the percentage of electricity production in the US by renewables is indeed at an all time high, but not as much as you'd think.

    In 1998, it was 11.06% of all electricity produced. In 2015 it was 13.44% of all electricity produced.

    Yes, an increase, but it has been mostly Wind and Solar picking up for the loss of hydro. Hydro is down 28% since 1998, while Wind and Solar are up massively.

    Overall, the US produced 150 billion KWh more electricity in 2015 than in 1998. Nice, but in real terms, nothing to jump up and down about.

    CO2 levels in the air are past 400 PPM, in order to get them to stop climbing and actually FALL, will require efforts far beyond all this in a timeframe that is highly unlikely to happen.

    http://400.350.org/

    The safe level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 350 parts per million. The only way to get there is to immediately transition the global economy away from fossil fuels and into into renewable energy, energy efficiency, and sustainable farming practices.

    The primary problem with this is that what would be required to do it may well start WWIII and lead to massive revolts worldwide. The math just isn't there.

    In many ways, the time to change direction was 30 years ago. The ship has sailed, so we now must prepare for the future that is so clearly coming.

    http://www.globalwarming.org/2...

    But as Newsweekreporter Sharon Begley points out, just to limit atmospheric concentrations to 450 ppm, nations would have to build 10,000 new nuclear power plantsâ"one every other day from now until 2050â"plus a mind boggling 1 million solar roof top panels per day from now until 2050. Even then, 450 ppm is attainable only if global energy efficiency improves by a whopping 500%, population grows only to 9 billion (instead of 10 billion or 11 billion), and global GDP grows at an anemic (near recession) rate of 1.6% per year.

    The problem with people like the 350.org group is that they encourage action without saying how MUCH of that action would be required.

    What would it take to lower CO2 concentrations to 350 ppm? According to Begleyâ(TM)s source, Cal Tech chemist Nathan Lewis, global CO2 emissions would have to drop to zero by 2050.

    Absent revolutionary changes in energy production, distribution, conversion, and storageâ"Nobel-caliber breakthroughs that nobody can plan or predictâ"lowering CO2 emissions to 350 ppm is impossible without draconian cutbacks in population, economic output, or both. Whether they realize it or not, the Climate 350 Club is asking us to go back to the caves.

    In other words, there is ZERO chance of this happening...

    So we need to prepare for a world of 500 PPM CO2, and frankly should prepare for 600 PPM, since 500 PPM will sail right on by and I doubt we'll stop before 600 PPM either...

    1. Re:Renewable Energy in the US by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The real problem is, we're fighting the wrong risk to the environment and our safety. Global warming = manageable. Supervolcano at Yellowstone = not.

    2. Re:Renewable Energy in the US by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      I agree that we will likely see 500 or even 600. For us to really stop this, requires that ALL nations, esp. China, cut their emissions. The only way to make this happen is to start taxing all goods based on where the worst sub-part comes from (i.e. which nation or state). If this tax starts low and then increases yearly, and it is applied as a % (best place like sweden would get 0; worst like China would get 100% of the tax).

      To make this work, requires 2 things; direct monitoring of all nations in the same fashion, along with a smart normalization. As to monitoring, the only real way to make that happen is with satellites. As it is, OCO2 has show that China is cheating massively. The total amount is not fully known, but OCO2 has shown that emit a great deal more than 33%. OCO3 goes in later this year, which will give us absolute values, and Japan is doing a new one as well, that will also give us absolutel values.

      And then comes normalization. The current one is to push emissions per capita which is about the worst one going. Why? Because individuals to not decide the majority of emissions. The majority is NOT from cars. It is from Electricity, along with business such as cement and smelting, which are decisions by businesses and govs. So, the RIGHT normalization should be emissions per $ GDP. This also has an advantage of discouraging nations from manipulating their money. If do something like this NOW, we can keep below 400, MAYBE 350 (I really doubt that though).

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    3. Re:Renewable Energy in the US by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      For us to really stop this, requires that ALL nations, esp. China, cut their emissions.

      Yes, but by how much?

      That is the question and answer that no one wants to actually hear or talk about.

      Allow me to share the answer... To stop the rise at 450 PPM and hold it there (not even to speak of dropping it to 350), we'd have to cut CO2 output from industrialized countries by 80% by 2050.

      The US is putting out over 5 billion metric tons of CO2 per year. This means that we'd have to cut output to below 1 billion metric tons. All while our population continues to increase, and we have to do it within the next 35 years.

      I simply don't see that as likely to happen.

    4. Re:Renewable Energy in the US by whoever57 · · Score: 1

      The only way to make this happen is to start taxing all goods based on where the worst sub-part comes from (i.e. which nation or state). If this tax starts low and then increases yearly, and it is applied as a % (best place like sweden would get 0; worst like China would get 100% of the tax).

      What do you think the TPP is for? Answer: stopping your proposal from ever happening.

      --
      The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
    5. Re:Renewable Energy in the US by Harlequin80 · · Score: 1

      I actually think the solution will come the other way. I think carbon production is almost impossible to cut by those levels. There is simply too much legacy infrastructure in place and the cost to shift away is too high.

      What I see as the only realistic way to reduce atmospheric carbon levels is to extract it. We talk about taxing carbon production to reduce production, but if instead we were able to remove it from the atmosphere using energy that would other wise be generated but not used we might get there.

      Renewable energy lends themselves to this because they fluctuate highly. So at times where grids are otherwise having to shed supply the extraction plants would use it instead.

    6. Re:Renewable Energy in the US by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      I think carbon production is almost impossible to cut by those levels. There is simply too much legacy infrastructure in place and the cost to shift away is too high.

      Yep, too many companies, too many existing buildings, too many houses, will simply not get upgraded...

      My own home, which isn't the worst or best, is likely to still be standing, as it is, in 2100, still needing tons of power just to exist...

      Renewable energy lends themselves to this because they fluctuate highly. So at times where grids are otherwise having to shed supply the extraction plants would use it instead.

      I'd be open to that idea... the question is, who pays for it in enough scale to dent the problem? Carbon tax?

    7. Re:Renewable Energy in the US by Harlequin80 · · Score: 1

      Carbon tax or carbon credits would be the only way to do it. Which raises all kinds of international competitiveness issues.

      But if carbon emissions were taxed at $x / tonne and the govt paid $x for each tonne captured you would create two incentives. The first is to reduce your carbon output, the second would be to create a market to extract it from the atmosphere. Over time the extraction methods would become more efficient and it may be possible to lower the value of x.

      In the end you are aiming to achieve a carbon neutral economy rather than a carbon neutral subset, such as power.

      As for international competitiveness, given the US is the largest consumer economy they could require a carbon output value for every product crossing the border, or apply a flat % to items without that come without a value. This way the US could use its dominant position to force carbon pricing through its global suppliers.

    8. Re:Renewable Energy in the US by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Carbon tax or carbon credits would be the only way to do it. Which raises all kinds of international competitiveness issues.

      I tend to agree... but it also brings into issue international treaties...

      As for international competitiveness, given the US is the largest consumer economy they could require a carbon output value for every product crossing the border, or apply a flat % to items without that come without a value. This way the US could use its dominant position to force carbon pricing through its global suppliers.

      Yes, but you can't really... the world no longer works that way, you'd have to renegotiate every treaty in the world, or at least all the trade ones.

      I like Donald Trump's "tough on China" talk as much as the next person, but I am enough of a realist to know that he can't just outright do what he says he wants to do, which is tax China's imports by 30%. He would be breaking treaties, agreements, and would start a trade war.

      So it would have to be done via negotiation, which considering all the various national interests... well, it wouldn't happen in the time frame that would matter, sad to say.

    9. Re:Renewable Energy in the US by Harlequin80 · · Score: 1

      To the best of my knowledge trade agreement allow for universal taxes. Which is what this would be as it would target internal & external producers equally. It is no different to a tax on alcohol for example. Californian wine would be taxed at the same rate as French wine so there is no argument of protectionism or favouritism. The EU is currently exploring the possibility of applying carbon costs to imports, the are calling them BCAs. Part of the reason is EU internal businesses are subject to an ETS and so are at a competitive disadvantage to external businesses. The BCAs are intended to fix that.

      I'm not from the US so I have a different perspective on the "tough on China" talk and rhetoric that comes out of the US. As a fairly neutral party and one who has visited both countries I do find the push back between the two interesting to watch. Over all I find the degree of anti-China sentiment a little odd, given so much of the US's standard of living has come from being able to use China for cheap production.

    10. Re:Renewable Energy in the US by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      To the best of my knowledge trade agreement allow for universal taxes.

      In theory that works... but the world doesn't work on theory... :)

      The EU is currently exploring the possibility of applying carbon costs to imports, the are calling them BCAs.

      They can call them anything they like, they risk starting a trade war, and the US can take it to the WTO, as can other nations...

      I'm not from the US so I have a different perspective on the "tough on China" talk and rhetoric that comes out of the US.

      Some of it is election year pandering... some of it is genuine feeling that open and free trade has simply cost too many jobs in the US. To some extent they are right, to others, it was going to happen regardless.

      A 30% tax on China imports won't suddenly make US labor competitive, and it would just push production to Vietnam and other places. A universal tax on all imports would start a massive trade war and hurt the global economy, which ultimately would defeat the point of it.

      I suspect Donald Trump knows better, he is telling people what they want to hear.

      Over all I find the degree of anti-China sentiment a little odd, given so much of the US's standard of living has come from being able to use China for cheap production.

      Actually, a lot of people here feel the reverse, that the basic standard of living has been falling, and in terms of real income, it has... Most Americans were able to survive on one income in the 50s and 60s, the Mother stayed home with the kids, people stayed married, and life was fine.

      Sure, we lived in smaller houses and had less stuff, but so what? Stuff isn't the end all, be all to life. Today most families need multiple incomes and divorce is a real problem. Is all the cheap stuff from China and all the Walmarts really making our lives better? I'm not so sure, and a lot of other people feel the same way.

      Keep in mind also that there is the idea that we are not really working on equal terms. There is a lot of nearly slave labor in China (not really, they are free to leave, but without options are they really?). The government isn't open and free, they are not democratic, etc. They also play with their currency and need a massive overhaul of their economic system.

      That being said, I get that China has massive internal issues and they can't turn on a dime. They are, in some ways, still recovering from the "Great Leap Forward" from decades ago and they are trying to open up in ways. They clearly are scared to do so...

    11. Re:Renewable Energy in the US by Harlequin80 · · Score: 1

      Stuff may not be the be all and end all but stuff is what drives a lot of people to go into dual income arrangements. It wasn't cheap chinese imports that increased the size of peoples homes and increased mortgages to go with it.

      From an external perspective it seems like the issues in the US stems from the concentration of wealth into fewer and fewer hands. The US has the most really rich people in the world but also has a crazy number of really poor people. For example, to someone who has grown up with it, universal healthcare just feels like a given. The fact that that doesn't exist in the US just feels strange. Also the labour setup for low income work in the US is really out of kilter with what I am used to. Tipping and a really low minimum wage, it's just alien.

      The other big difference seems to be the relationship between the citizens and your Government. In Australia we just tend to think of our Government as a bit useless. Nobody really likes politicians but outside of a general distaste we just think they couldn't find their arsehole with a telescope. The impression I get from media and on here is that US Citizens have a deep seated distrust of their Government. And partisan lines are so deeply deeply cut it's like the old protestant vs catholic argument in Ireland.

      As for China. It is not a democratically elected government no. But the methodology by which people enter the People's Congress is actually remarkably equal. Sure it is gamed by the incumbents, but the way people enter the government and move into the ruling party is remarkable and worth reading about. China has a lot of challenges ahead of it. Not least of all that it is not a homogeneous ethnic group which naturally leads to tensions. While people feel they can improve their lot in life, the tensions can be kept under control. If, however, their economy stalls in a major way there will be significant civil disturbance.

      As for manipulating their currency. All major economies do it. The US is still working on the largest currency manipulation in history with its quantitative easing program.

    12. Re:Renewable Energy in the US by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Because individuals to not decide the majority of emissions. The majority is NOT from cars. It is from Electricity, along with business such as cement and smelting, which are decisions by businesses and govs.
      That might be true for the rest of the world, but it is not for the USA. The USA has by far the highest household consumption of electricity and gasoline for cars than any other nation. In both terms you easy beat e.g. Germany by factor of ten
      Your idea about So, the RIGHT normalization should be emissions per $ GDP makes no sense either. If you remove the few superrich (how many are that anyway? 100?) from the GDP the USA is on the level of a third world country regarding GDP per capita..

      This also has an advantage of discouraging nations from manipulating their money.
      Then stop the backing of the dollar with oil and see how that goes ...

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  10. Re: Cleanup by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Is this a scheme to avoid cleaning up their mining sites after extraction operations are finished there? Leaving the mess for the tax payer to fix?

  11. progress by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 0

    While switching to natural gas isn't a sustainable option, it is forward progress because coal makes the worst pollution. Coal had it's day and natural gas is currently the top dog but renewable energy sources have drastically increased lately and will eventually take the cake. Just take a look at this graph.

    --
    Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
    1. Re:progress by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Coal had it's day and natural gas is currently the top dog but renewable energy sources have drastically increased lately and will eventually take the cake.

      I would tend to agree with you...

      The problem is the use of the word "eventually". We are now past 400 PPM CO2. 500 PPM will come and go without issue, the more interesting question is 600 PPM.

      Can we stop before we hit that? I have my doubts. Part of the problem is the oceans are stuffed full of CO2 and there is a limit to what they can absorb. We keep putting more CO2 out each year.

      http://www.economist.com/blogs...

      Even if we hold CO2 to current levels, that doesn't actually help. Lets say we cut them by 20%! Yea us! Except that also doesn't actually help.

      So what do we have to do? What would it take to drop CO2 levels in the air to 350 PPM?

      We'd have to cut 90% of CO2 worldwide.

      Even if we all wanted to, I don't think that would be possible and keep anything remotely like our current standard of living.

    2. Re:progress by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 1

      we could make enough nuclear plants to power everything, including machines to extract CO2 from the atmosphere. the question is when will our representatives admit that the situation is dire.

      --
      Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
    3. Re:progress by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      the question is when will our representatives admit that the situation is dire.

      When they aren't running for reelection. :)

      The problem is that the solutions involve pain, and people don't like pain.

      You won't change anything until the pain of change is less than the pain of staying the course. Sadly, it will be FAR too late by that point.

    4. Re:progress by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 1

      You won't change anything until the pain of change is less than the pain of staying the course. Sadly, it will be FAR too late by that point.

      you're wrong about that because they are running out of options and when they are out of options they will do the right thing.

      --
      Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
    5. Re:progress by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      you're wrong about that because they are running out of options and when they are out of options they will do the right thing.

      People are not going to accept their power bills being doubled without seeing a clear and obvious reason why. Even then they might complain...

    6. Re:progress by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 1

      "Men and nations behave wisely when they have exhausted all other resources.”

      --
      Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
    7. Re:progress by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

      :-) Any evidence of that? You politicians only talk about the "right thing" after retirement, and/or a book deal is coming. They never do while in office unless they are pushed into it. Are you up to the challenge of voting for the "right person"?

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
  12. Re:Plastics are about to be a million times cheape by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    again, zero chance. Oil and Nat gas are MUCH MUCH cheaper to obtain and better as a feed stock. Coal is far more expensive then both oil/nat gas.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  13. Do we have the Green Tech we need? by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 4, Insightful

    http://www.newsweek.com/begley...

    The irony is that the above was written in 2009, when CO2 levels were 386 PPM, now they have passed 400 PPM and show no signs of stopping.

    Two viewpoints:

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which assesses the causes, magnitude and impacts of global warming, said in 2007 that "currently available" technologies and those on the cusp of commercialization can bring enough zero-carbon energy online to avoid catastrophic climate change. And I regularly get reports from renewable-energy and environmental groups arguing that off-the-shelf technologies, fully deployed, can get us there.

    And on the other side:

    In the opposite corner is the Department of Energy, which in December concluded that we need breakthroughs in physics and chemistry that are "beyond our present reach" to, for instance, triple the efficiency of solar panels; DOE secretary Steven Chu has said we need Nobel caliber breakthroughs.

    ---

    In short:

    That is also the view of energy chemist Nate Lewis of the California Institute of Technology. "It's not true that all the technologies are available and we just need the political will to deploy them," he says. "My concern, and that of most scientists working on energy, is that we are not anywhere close to where we need to be. We are too focused on cutting emissions 20 percent by 2020â"but you can always shave 20 percent off" through, say, efficiency and conservation. By focusing on easy, near-term cuts, we may miss the boat on what's needed by 2050, when CO2 emissions will have to be 80 percent below today's to keep atmospheric levels no higher than 450 parts per million.

    Worth noting is that 450 PPM is 100 PPM higher than the Club 350 people want to keep it at and say is the "safe level".

    So is that possible? Here is a 12 step program from someone who says it could be done. And perhaps in a fantasy world, it could. Most of this list is completely silly stuff.

    http://sustainabilityadvantage...

    1. Mandate net zero energy (NZE) residential and commercial buildings. - Well that sounds nice for new construction, but what do you plan to do with existing buildings? People don't tear down and rebuild stuff every 10 years. This will also raise the price of new buildings making it harder to afford them.

    2. Design walkable, bikeable communities - That works for future communities, but not the ones already built. It also really only works for places that have expensive land or are boxed in by mother nature to small areas. In places that have lots of cheap land, it simply makes no economic sense.

    3. Stabilize the population - Talk about a political minefield. Go see if the Pope is going to start supporting birth control.

    4. Put a price on carbon - You can do this, but in the short term it will just push a billion people into poverty. Do it enough to actually matter and you may end up with riots. You ALSO have to do it world wide, or it doesn't matter.

    5. Capture CO2 - This is an easy suggestion to give, I'd like to see the worldwide pricetag for paying for it. Technically possible things are not always affordable.

    6. Electrify transportation - Even if you banned gas car production tomorrow, at current car production rates it would take nearly 15 years to replace the gas cars in the world with EVs, and that assumes that people will have the money for them, have a place to charge them, and that power plants can somehow produce enough power for a billion cars cleanly. Since you can't actually ban gas cars tomorrow, you might phase this in over a decade or two, at best, but in reality you're looking at multiple decades before even half the car fleet is EV.

    7. Create a national, smart elect

    1. Re:Do we have the Green Tech we need? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So what's your suggestion? I take anyone who bothers to write these kinds of silly lists instead of just another whining cynic (because I am one of those myself).

    2. Re:Do we have the Green Tech we need? by ledow · · Score: 1

      I know.

      Again - I will fall back to my usual question.

      As a scientist (i.e. someone of a scientific mind with a BSc, even if not in this area), and especially as a mathematician, I can assume any possible single fact and then extrapolate the logic from there.

      Let's assume, whether people believe it or not, that the levels are rising, it's us causing that, and we're all going to die if we don't do something.

      Now... let's get a list of things we can do. That list is great. Now, let's put our best guesses for the IMPACT of those changes, worldwide, instantaneously, with complete co-operation (when assuming, always assume the extreme so you get a feel for the maximum error). Now let's extrapolate quite what happens, if they WORK absolutely perfectly and beyond expectations, or if they do nothing at all.

      You just killed off vast portions of the third world. Everyone ditches their car but building a house becomes more expensive. You've lost affordable housing and maybe killed the building industry through loss of profit. You've lowered birth rates dramatically. You've billed the third world into oblivion, and potentially caused anarchy in certain regions. You've deployed uncertain capture technology and now have a stock of CO2 that you can never allow release of and must pay to maintain forever more.

      You've also - weirdly - put a lot of onus on electricity, especially peak demand, which is almost unsatisfiable in many regions (not just third-world, but also places that don't get much sun or are deep inland, etc. or don't have the infrastructure already in place). You've used up an awful lot of raw material - some of it non-renewable - over an incredibly short period of time, but somehow reduced industrial energy usage? Or added greatly to peak demand again. You've cured the politicians of greed, and found world peace amid the anarchy and poverty. And so on.

      I... honestly can't see the logic there at all. You have DRASTICALLY changed the way everyone lives and works and finds food and survives and has children while simultaneously creating vast industrial processes to allow that to happen inefficiently, on the basis of guesses.

      The impact of the changes, even if they work and save the planet, is so drastic as to be questionably loss-making. And that's if everyone immediately co-operates fully and it all works perfectly. If it doesn't, we've just made things more expensive, put a lot of money into things that could never stem the tide anyway, 99% died of whatever dire consequence of global warming anyway, and there's almost zero accountability.

      As I always say in this. I BELIEVE YOU. What now? And what's the impact? And what's the impact if that DOESN'T work or if it only partly works? And if that's true, is it honestly worth bothering (not sarcasm, honest question - if we put Armageddon off for 10 years, and those 10 years are in poverty and wasted technology and we throw away infrastructure that DID work to do that, was it worth it?) And what if it works perfectly? Are we actually going to kill no-one (unlikely) millions (possible) or billions (still possible) getting there?

      I realise it's a selfish human question, but if half the world dies trying to get there, did we "save the planet"? Technically, yes. Practically? I'd be hard-pushed to say yes if we're pushed back 10,000 years only to repeat it again and kill off everything else in between anyway.

      And that's assuming that - having caused the problem - our solutions have ANY IMPACT WHATSOEVER. I mean, honestly, it takes nothing to cook an egg but uncooking it is an entirely different matter.

      And, again honest question, would we not be better moving to another planet? Admit defeat, learn the lesson, move on because we've obviously broken this one? That seems a perfectly viable answer if some of the assumptions above turn out right.

      I'm playing devil's advocate, but it really worries me that people think that banning plastic bags, driving electric cars, putting wind tu

    3. Re:Do we have the Green Tech we need? by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      So what's your suggestion?

      Fair question...

      1. Move the planet slowly towards non-carbon energy. It can't be done at the speed required to do anything about AGW now, but we can at least make progress and not make it worse.

      2. Start preparing for our new world, because it is coming, like it or not. Plan for what to do when the coastal cities are 10 feet under water. Plan for moving crops and farming 1,000 miles north. Plan to get everyone off the islands that will end up under water.

      3. Get our population under control. Somehow, this has to happen. At current growth rates, humans will reach a population density of 1 person per square meter of dry land surface of the Earth in 720 years and equal the mass of the Earth in 2,600 years. Clearly the population has to stop growing some time much sooner than 720 years from now, it can be under our control, or it can be due to war, disease, starvation. Our choice.

      4. An all out push for Fusion needs to be made. This has been ignored for too long. If it costs $10 trillion dollars over 10 years, it'll be crazy stupid cheap in the long run, vs all other power options. If we fail to develop dependable 24/7 power at the scale of nuclear, but cleanly, then we have no long term future as a species.

    4. Re:Do we have the Green Tech we need? by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      Of course its not possible. CO2 emissions have been rising year over year, especially from the EU. Ask yourself why do CO2 emissions keep rising, even though everyone "agrees" that CO2 causes AGW?

    5. Re:Do we have the Green Tech we need? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      4. An all out push for Fusion needs to be made. This has been ignored for too long. If it costs $10 trillion dollars over 10 years, it'll be crazy stupid cheap in the long run, vs all other power options. If we fail to develop dependable 24/7 power at the scale of nuclear, but cleanly, then we have no long term future as a species.

      What'll happen is that they end up needing another 10 trillion, but they're almost there!

      Meanwhile, we could have spent the same time and effort doing other things.

    6. Re:Do we have the Green Tech we need? by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      What'll happen is that they end up needing another 10 trillion, but they're almost there!

      With that attitude, we might as well just all up and die...

      The Atomic Bomb was developed at great cost during WWII and they succeeded. It IS possible for government to do something right you know.

    7. Re:Do we have the Green Tech we need? by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Ask yourself why do CO2 emissions keep rising, even though everyone "agrees" that CO2 causes AGW?

      It keeps rising because we keep putting billions of metric tons of it into the air every year.

      We keep doing that because we like air conditioning, and cars, and airplanes, and stuff. More than we care about the long term climate.

    8. Re:Do we have the Green Tech we need? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      With that attitude, we might as well just all up and die...

      Not at all, you missed the entirety of what I said:

      Meanwhile, we could have spent the same time and effort doing other things.

      Do try to finish reading what somebody has said, so you can grasp the point more effectively. When you just snip off a single sentence, you can easily mislead.

      The Atomic Bomb was developed at great cost during WWII and they succeeded. It IS possible for government to do something right you know.

      All the more reason not to waste money tilting at windmills.

    9. Re:Do we have the Green Tech we need? by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      In places that have lots of cheap land, it simply makes no economic sense.
      Actually there it makes the most sense, as it would obviously the cheapest.

      Surprisingly all of Europe is bike able and walkable. That insanity that you need a car to go to a mall which is only 100 yards away only exists in the states ...

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    10. Re:Do we have the Green Tech we need? by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      You repeat this lie now since months. Are you a paid agitator?

      For your interest: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=EU+CO2+re...

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    11. Re:Do we have the Green Tech we need? by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Actually there it makes the most sense, as it would obviously the cheapest.

      You seriously must live on another planet... you have that completely and totally backwards...

      When land is cheap, you spread out, build large sprawling cities, where you have to drive everywhere.

      Surprisingly all of Europe is bike able and walkable.

      All? All 100% of it? Yea, I suspect that isn't true.

      Depending on how you define Europe, it is smaller than the US with far more people in it. You're also more concentrated in small cities.

      That insanity that you need a car to go to a mall which is only 100 yards away only exists in the states ...

      100 yards? Ha! How little you know... There are few places in the US built that tight....

      The suburbs simply don't work without cars. One could debate that design all day long, but that is the design we have, and future communities won't change existing ones.

      The original point was that you can't turn existing communities into walk/bike ones when they weren't designed for it, stuff is too far apart.

      The local mall would be a 30 min walk each way, crossing 2 major roads and a major highway. Even on bike it would be 10-15 min each way. And I live rather close to a mall, many people live twice as far.

    12. Re:Do we have the Green Tech we need? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      All? All 100% of it? Yea, I suspect that isn't true.

      Obviously not the watery areas.

      Depending on how you define Europe, it is smaller than the US with far more people in it. You're also more concentrated in small cities.

      You need to look up the REAL population distribution of the US, when averaged out, it seems different than when you control for the real picture and point out all the concentrated US population areas.

  14. Re:Plastics are about to be a million times cheape by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 2

    Oil and natural gas won't be cheap forever...

    The smart play is to develop factories that can take all three as a feedstock, so that you don't care which one is on top in any given year...

  15. How is this 'hardware'? by oneiros27 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I follow a fair bit of environmental news sources ... but this is only 'news for nerds' in that it's a case of people sitting at home complaining about things that they have little chance of directly affecting.

    The sign that this should be off-topic here is that it doesn't have an appropriate category -- it got shoved into 'hardware'. (I could maybe see it under science (climate change) or technology (issues w/ price competition in energy production) ... but how the hell is this 'hardware'?).

    Can we get this back to being a tech website again? Keep the articles on topic, and kill the 'Entertainment' category? ... unless of course, it's Star Wars ... or maybe comic book related ... okay, you can keep 'Entertainment', unless we see some post about some reality TV show with non-tech people in it or one of the dozen or so singing shows.

    --
    Build it, and they will come^Hplain.
    1. Re:How is this 'hardware'? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      My hardware is powered by coal.

    2. Re:How is this 'hardware'? by turp182 · · Score: 1

      While it may not have an appropriate topic to land, it is rather critical to technology as it involves power.

      This is because all of us use power, and the paradigm around power and energy is very much in flux these days (much more so that in recent history).

      For the record, I've been following this story for a while as I live in the St. Louis area, where Peabody is headquartered.

      --
      BlameBillCosby.com
    3. Re:How is this 'hardware'? by sl3xd · · Score: 1

      Mine used to be coal powered, but natural gas became cheaper.

      --
      -- Sometimes you have to turn the lights off in order to see.
  16. Re:Plastics are about to be a million times cheape by WindBourne · · Score: 2

    TOTALLY agree with you about that being the smart thing. I doubt it will happen. :)
    However, if we quit burning oil/nat gas, then our usage will be below 20% of what it is today. IOW, oil/nat gas will remain cheap for many decades, if not centuries. Still good to have alternatives.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  17. End Self Bonding by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is exactly why coal companies must not be allowed to self-bond for clean-up of their mines. It is a common practice that when paired with this kind of bankruptcy leaves the public in every country to foot the bill for the environmental restoration and safety problems they leave behind.

    1. Re:End Self Bonding by NotInHere · · Score: 1

      Oh so you say tax payers pay for the cleaning up? Great how the public hand funds this. What a wonderful job the politicians did.

  18. Pity they're not going out of business by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I say this as an Australian who is deeply ashamed of being part of an economy so heavily reliant on destroying our planet for its short-term survival. Here's hoping the whole damn industry dies sooner rather than later.

    1. Re:Pity they're not going out of business by ledow · · Score: 1

      The reason they died is because there's so much coal available from other sources that they were priced out of the market.

      If anything, OTHER countries caused that problem.

    2. Re:Pity they're not going out of business by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No they were most definitely front and centre of the problem too, expanding into Australia opening up new mines and expanding capacity along with the rest of them.

  19. people are overloooking a couple things IMHO by inode_buddha · · Score: 1

    Energy is not the only coal user. If you want to make steel out of iron ore, you will need a lot of coal.

    Historical tidbit: Peabody was an industrial powerhouse back in the days of steam. They were the coal equivalent of Standard Oil, and they became *very* wealthy.

    --
    C|N>K
    1. Re:people are overloooking a couple things IMHO by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you want to make steel out of iron ore, you will need a lot of coal.

      Maybe not quite as much as you think - car tyres are one alternative: http://crca.asn.au/green-steel-from-old-rubber-tyres-produces-no-waste-or-toxic-fumes/

      "The process, called Polymer Injection Technology has been patented internationally and has been commercialised for international steel makers using Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF), responsible for 40 percent of the world’s steel production. The first commercial implementation of the technology took place in Thailand in 2011."

      So, you're using electricity to heat the furnace (hence can use renewables) and old car tyres to provide the carbon for the steel.

      "As of March 2012, the technology has replaced almost 15,000 tonnes of coal with more than one million car tyres (or their equivalents). This has reduced many millions of KWh hours of energy each year while increasing furnace productivity and producing more steel from the same amount of ferrous scrap."

    2. Re:people are overloooking a couple things IMHO by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Energy is not the only coal user. If you want to make steel out of iron ore, you will need a lot of coal.

      Nope. Recent advances in tech mean that you can use a solar furnace to accomplish that. And by "recent" I mean the 1960's.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odeillo_solar_furnace

      Only if you you externalize the negatives of fly ash, radiation and heavy metal pollution (plus CO2 and sulfur, etc) is coal is a CHEAP way to do that.

      A plumber can hook up your new toilet cheap too, by leaving a hole in the bottom to let the sewage flow directly onto the bathroom floor. It's not a wise plan, even if it is cheaper to get started.

    3. Re:people are overloooking a couple things IMHO by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Can be done is different from producing tons of iron. Solar anything doesn't scale or work reliably. .

    4. Re:people are overloooking a couple things IMHO by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Can be done is different from producing tons of iron. Solar anything doesn't scale or work reliably. .

      Seems to scale OK for farmers. As for reliability, I have yet to see a day that wasn't brighter than the night that preceded or followed it.

      What else do you have?

  20. Re:Plastics are about to be a million times cheape by rahvin112 · · Score: 2

    Imagine plastic effused concrete.

    I have a hard time fitting plastic into effused concrete. Concrete is poured all the time. Though I think you meant infused, in which case I'd rather not as I can imagine it would result in death of significant numbers of people. Plastic infused concrete would likely offer no benefits and significant problems. Without some special plastics the results would be plastic that wasn't bonded into the concrete where the strength of concrete is from the bonding that forms. Now if you could construct it like fiberglass where it was stranded and had sufficient angular surfaces that the concrete could hold onto the plastic you might have something but I doubt it. Fiberglass reinforced concrete trades compressive strength for flexibility and additional tensile strength. Plastic infused concrete would likely weaken compressive strength and tensile strength while providing no actual improvement. Honestly if there was any benefit to such a combination it would already exist because plastic is already dirt cheap. Some plastics are already significantly cheaper per volume than aggregate.

    Even if coal was free it wouldn't significantly lower the cost of plastics because the additional processing steps would more than compensate for the cost of the base materials. Most plastic is made from very light hydrocarbons (gasoline and lighter). To use coal for plastic production you would need to refine the coal and frack off lighter hydrocarbons, this would be extremely energy and process intensive. Probably on the order of the Fischer-Tropsch process, which is wickedly inefficient, and then throw on a bunch of sub-processes and you'd even still need a hydrogen source like natural gas. We won't be making plastic from coal until every drop of oil is used up.

  21. Falling Chinese Coal Consumption Undermines Market by Layzej · · Score: 2

    Ok. How about the Wall Street Journal? Falling Chinese Coal Consumption and Output Undermine Global Market

    Both coal production and consumption peaked in 2013 and has dropped continuously, falling a further 3.7% in the first 11 months of 2015 compared to the same period the year before. Both coal production and consumption peaked in 2013 and has dropped continuously, falling a further 3.7% in the first 11 months of 2015 compared to the same period the year before.

    The central government has curbed construction of new coal fired plants with national regulators ordering in April 2016 a halt to construction in 13 provinces and delays for already approved projects in a further 15 provinces.[5] This is in line with a moratorium issued by the National Energy Agency in 2015 banning new coal mines in China for a period of three years and closure of thousands of small coal mines. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

  22. Always Something by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    So coal is bad because of CO2.
    Nuclear is bad because NIMBY
    Hydro is bad because environment
    Natural Gas is bad because of frakking
    Oil is bad because of pipeline/dependency on OPEC
    Wind is bad because it could kill birds/NIMBY
    Solar is bad because it could mess with desert environments

    If we keep going this route, we won't have to worry about reading Slashdot. There will be no power to run the servers!

  23. Dare not speak its name by bugs2squash · · Score: 1

    They've turned into coaldemort.

    --
    Nullius in verba
  24. Are there alternatives for metallurgical coal? by hackertourist · · Score: 1

    Coal is a vital ingredient for converting iron into steel. Are there any alternatives for this process?

  25. Re:Plastics are about to be a million times cheape by jandersen · · Score: 3, Insightful

    We might actually be heading into the true plastics era. You ain't seen nothing yet.

    I fear you may be right. Burning fossil fuel is bad enough as it is, but at least most of the waste products are going to disappear from the environment relatively quickly, and CO2 is not very poisonous, despite the fact that it causes climate change. Plastics on the other hand consists of entirely new molecules which biology has no response to, so it get broken down very slowly and mostly mechanically, and we are only now beginning to realise that the presence of microscopic fragments of plastinc in the food webs is likely to be a problem - perhaps a big one. And plastics leach other artificial chemicals that have their own, harmful effects; some mimic hormones, for example. It would be somewhat ironic, wouldn't it, if our enthusiasm for this brilliant wonder material ends up more of less sterilising us.

    For all that, I'm not against plastics - what I am worried about is the fact that we always seem to rush head first into whatever seems like a good idea at the time, ignoring all calls for caution because that might get in the way of making a quick profit. Why is it that we never learn? Plastics could be - already is, in fact - a hugely valuable material, cheap, strong, light weight, resistant to chemicals etc etc, but we really need to learn to think before we just release new, unknown substances into the environment. Perhaps we actually need something similar to the restrictions on pharmaceuticals - rigorous testing that proves that a new chemical meets certain, strict guidelines for harmfulness, utility and safe mechanisms for their final disposal.

  26. Re:Plastics are about to be a million times cheape by gtall · · Score: 1

    Yeah, you are correct about the oil/nat gas remaining cheap for decades. After global warming reduces industry and population, demand will drop and so will the price.

  27. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 2

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  28. Re:Plastics are about to be a million times cheape by silentcoder · · Score: 4, Interesting

    There is a longer-term risk to plastics we don't usually consider (because it's *very* long term ?) but it is worth thinking about maybe. The last time there was such an abundance of a molecule that nothing could break down it was lignin. Lignin being the key molecule that allowed plants to form wood and grow into trees. For quite some time there was nothing that could break down lignin - the era is what we now call the carboniferous. The presence of that molecule in abundance had interesting effects on nature. Firstly - a lot of carbon did not get broken down into CO2 when trees died, so it ended up being trapped and forming the fossil fuels we're now burning (interesting how the new unbreakable molecule is made from the results of the old one). In the meantime those trees produced oxygen but because they didn't decompose nothing balanced that out. The earth's oxygen content jumped to 40% - the highest it has been in it's entire history.

    In that environment a lot of things that can't grow very big due to inefficient lungs grew gigantic. There was a dragonfly with a 1m wingspan, the largest known arachnid of all time - which had a jaw almost 90cm long (we have no complete fossils but it's estimated to have been well over 3m from head to tail - nothing like that could live today).

    And when eventually things DID evolve that could break down lignin... in a very short time, all those creatures went extinct.

    Imagine if the results of something evolving that can break down plastics - is actually worse for us than the plastic dumping was... it's entirely possible and the simple fact is that if we keep putting plastic everywhere - things WILL evolve that can eat it. Sooner or later.

    --
    Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
  29. Mentioned it once by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    The Fischer-Tropsch process is only interesting if you need liquid fuels, say for operating tanks or aircraft, and don't have more efficient sources.

    I can't see how that could occur, unless your only friend is Romania and you fail to invade The Caucasus and Persia.

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    1. Re:Mentioned it once by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      South Africa had a large F-T system in the days of Apartheid and it is still running. They've recently completed laying a 700-odd km pipeline to deliver gas from 3 onshore Mozambique gas fields to the F-T plant ("gas-to-liquids" is the phrase they use), and are in the commissioning and field start-up phases.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  30. "Coal is good for humanity" by ChunderDownunder · · Score: 1

    Ha ha ha.

  31. The one promise Obama kept by mi · · Score: 1

    The Administration may have failed to bring America's gasoline prices to the European levels. But the promise to bankrupt the coal-industry is coming fulfilled.

    Maybe, he sincerely believes, coal is a poison and should go away. But it is far more likely, that he — or some of his more pragmatic allies in the party — are simply scheming to buy the companies for pennies on the dollar and then politically rehabilitate the fuel with the help of politicians grateful for their donations. And even ask taxpayers for assistance. Seriously, wouldn't Department of Energy be happy to issue grants and low-interest loans to something with "Green Coal" or "Clear Coal" on the first page of their brochure?

    the Obama administration's environmental regulations raised operational costs

    As the old adage goes:

    1. If it moves, tax it.
    2. If it keeps moving, regulate it.
    3. When it stops moving, subsidize it.

    The little scheme involves immense PROFIT to the well-connected cronies, who snatch the struggling businesses between the 2nd and the 3rd step.

    --
    In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
    1. Re:The one promise Obama kept by Yunzil · · Score: 1

      So the fact that a coal company is going bankrupt because they over extended, took on tool much debt, and are trying to sell a product in a world where there are better and cheaper alternatives points to a conspiracy where Obama is engineering the collapse of the coal industry so he can buy the companies cheap.

      Wow.

    2. Re:The one promise Obama kept by mi · · Score: 1

      in a world where there are better and cheaper alternatives

      Coal is incredibly cheap. What makes it unaffordable for would-be users are the regulations designed to kill off such use.

      points to a conspiracy where Obama is engineering the collapse of the coal industry

      Oh, Obama was blatantly open about it:

      So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it’s just that it will bankrupt them

      Whether Obama himself is "in on it", there is little doubt that the trillions of dollars worth of coal in the ground in USA will not be mined by some people eventually. That those people are currently among enthusiastic supporters of all politicians driving the today's miners out of business is not at all far-fetched.

      --
      In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
    3. Re:The one promise Obama kept by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Actually it was not Obama, it was me! But I'm happy if he takes the blame :D

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  32. liberals aren't normally so clear. Doesn't work by raymorris · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It's been 50 years, isn't it time to stop the political shenanigans and do something the environment now? Handing billions of dollars to democrat campaign contributors while ignoring the stuff that could actually save the planet is getting tiresome.

    > 3. Numbers don't matter ...

    Liberals normally seem to THINK like that, but they rarely say it so clearly. "So what if it doesn't work, it makes me feel good to pretend".

    We're not talking about "it would be hard" or "or would cost a little more". It's impossible, and therefore a huge waste of precious time. So far you guys have wasted 50 years chasing solar-electric, which is one of the most ineffective energy sources ever proposed, next to "pyramid power".

    Now if you go down to the hardware store and get an 8" plastic pipe for $12, you can put it outside, connect it to your water line, and have hot water. That works; it works quite well. Since it works, and you can do it yourself for $12, it doesn't involve handing a few billion dollars to Clinton and Gore's campaigning contributors, so they tell you to do that. They tell you to ignore what works and instead give billions to their buddies. You go right ahead and do that, while power continues to come from 80% fossil fuels because you're too busy handing money to political donors rather than using the carbon-free energy technologies that actually work.

  33. Start company to put coal back by jfdavis668 · · Score: 1

    Someone needs to start a company that extracts carbon from CO2 in the air, and then buries it back in coal mines where it came from.

  34. Coal will be back by avandesande · · Score: 1

    The shrinking market for coal is directly related to cheap natural gas from fracking. When these reserves are depleted it will revert to coal.

    --
    love is just extroverted narcissism
  35. Re: liberals aren't normally so clear. Doesn't wor by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They use this (passive solar heating of water sitting in a pipe/tank atop a roof) quite extensively in Saudi Arabia. When I first saw it I thought it was pretty smart. Would probably work for me here in Texas as well, at least good chunk of the year. Probably not so useful for people in Maine, though.

  36. Re: Plastics are about to be a million times cheap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Sort of. Take polyethylene, which is the largest volume plastic. The carbon-to-hydrogen ratio is close to 2. Coal has a C/H ratio closer to 1.2 - meaning that to turn coal to plastics, you have to reject carbon (which is done as CO2). Same thing applies for turning coal into liquid hydrocarbons.

    From a carbon utilization standpoint, using natural gas to make plastics is better than using coal. From a business standpoint, it of course depends on the spread between feedstock prices.

  37. Nonsense! by JimSadler · · Score: 1

    Coal is going down. It's over barring some new technology that can eliminate the nasty side effects of mining or burning coal.

  38. business always reneges on their obligations. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Pensions schmensions.
    We should just cut out the middleman and grind up retirees and use them for fuel. It would be more honest.

  39. Re: liberals aren't normally so clear. Doesn't wo by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In Maine, evacuated tube collectors are needed. They work fine and a couple racks of them supply about 1/2 the BTUs needed to heat my place in the winter...

  40. Re:Plastics are about to be a million times cheape by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
  41. Year-round in Texas it helps by raymorris · · Score: 1

    A black pipe in full sun will get quite hot even if the temperature outside is 50F or so. At lower temps, it at least REDUCES the amount of natural gas needed to finish heating the water.

    Even if the air is 40F, the ground 50F, and the solar water 80F, that reduces the energy that the natural gas water heater uses.

    I'm glad to see that many well-known environmentalists are now acknowledging that the way to significantly reduce fossil fuel use, with technologies that actually exist, is to use wind power during windy time to augment the nuclear baseline.

  42. Re:Plastics are about to be a million times cheape by jandersen · · Score: 1

    ... things WILL evolve that can eat it. Sooner or later.

    As a matter of fact, I read an article not long ago about just such a micro organism, which can digest some types of plastic, very slowly.

  43. Minimum Wage by DarthVain · · Score: 2

    Not to mention the total subsidy of all industry for lower wages on the backs of social programs. A few wealthy make more profit from a cheaper workforce where the entire tax base pays for the social programs required for all those people that can't live on the wages the receive. Pension and cleanup obligations are a drop in the bucket compared to this systemic problem.

    Walmart is the poster child of this issue for not only an example of the above but apparently profiting even more from accepting the most food stamps as well. Probably expressed as a Win-Win in the exec boardroom...

  44. Re:Plastics are about to be a million times cheape by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Fortunately, this time around (with plastic) it will be stored carbon being converted into a new form of stored carbon. We won't have a massive disruption of Oxygen levels. That said, I do imagine a Plastinocene era in the geological record.

  45. Re:Plastics are about to be a million times cheape by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

    Fiberglass is a plastic epoxy resin reinforcing a glass fiber.

  46. Re:Plastics are about to be a million times cheape by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Plastic infused concrete would likely weaken

    Look no farther than China where buildings have collapsed and on investigation it turned out garbage was used as a filler to skimp on concrete.

  47. Re:Plastics are about to be a million times cheape by previewlounge · · Score: 1

    We are not heading into a nightmarish "true plastics era". We are progressing to a semi-intelligent diamondoid materials era.

  48. Re:Plastics are about to be a million times cheape by silentcoder · · Score: 1

    One of the mainstay's of evolution is that as soon as a resource exist, the stage is set for something to show up that eats it. It can take a very long time, but once the stage is set the event becomes inevitable. Once something started laying eggs - the evolution of egg-eaters was guaranteed.

    --
    Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
  49. Really? by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    What new regulations has Obama created that caused the coal industry to collapse?

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    1. Re:Really? by Rakarra · · Score: 1

      He may have been referring to the stories in 2012 that coal mine owners told their employees, saying they'd be fired if they voted for Obama because Obama was going to stop all coal mining.

    2. Re:Really? by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      yeah, that is about as close as it comes. So far, the only regs that has shut down coal mines was the mercury regs that W extended until 2016.
      Otherwise, all of the coal plants that have been shut down to date have been because nat gas, along with wind, are much much cheaper than coal.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  50. Re:Plastics are about to be a million times cheape by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 2

    No ide how that got "insightful"

    Coal is not a hydrocarbon, coal is carbon

    No way to make any plastics from it unless you convert it with some hydrogen source into "hydrocarbons".

    --
    Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.