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Jobless Claims In US Decline To Match Lowest Since 1973 (bloomberg.com)

Sho Chandra, reporting for Bloomberg: The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly declined last week to match a more than 42-year low, indicating employers are upbeat about an economy that bogged down in the first quarter. Jobless claims dropped by 13,000 to 253,000 in the week ended April 9, equaling the level in March that was the lowest since November 1973, a report from the Labor Department showed Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 270,000. Continuing claims also declined, to the lowest since mid-October. "Jobless claims are running really low and all other labor market data are telling us that the economy is creating a lot of jobs," said Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. "This is further confirmation that the labor market is strong."

6 of 227 comments (clear)

  1. OR by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Or they just fell off the list due to time limitations. I know more than a few who have been unemployed for sooooooo long they are no longer eligible (or counted) as unemployed.

    1. Re:OR by Rob+Y. · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I was unemployed for 10 months last year, and I didn't file for unemployment - because, as a private 'consultant' (with exactly one client - you do the math), I wasn't eligible. My 'employer' didn't pay unemployment or medical premiums for me - nor did they pay the employer's share of social security taxes. The future of employment in the U.S.

      You libertarians out there may tout my wonderful 'free agent' status, but I'm a free agent in name only - and I never wanted to be. After 34 years of good work put in on this company's products (which I was happy to work on, and felt a certain pride of authorship for), they've been killed off because, while nicely profitable, they weren't enough of a 'growth opportunity' to be of interest to the private equity guys that now own them. Easier to take the hit now and then show 'stellar growth' from a lower starting level next year (or the year after that), when they're hyping the company for yet another resale.

      None of which speaks well of the Obama recovery - which is good enough, given the headwinds and the refusal of Congress to ante up for real stimulus that would've done a better job than what the Fed has been pumping in. But such is the state of our governance and our media coverage, that this is being seen as the best of all possible worlds - and Hillary's going to attempt to run on it as 'Obama's record of success'. Which is not to say that anything Trump, Cruz or Romney is or was offering would not be a lot worse...

      --
      Posted from my Android phone. Oh, I can change this? There, that's better...
  2. Hm by fluffernutter · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The number of people employed doesn't really tell the whole story, since most people don't have a choice NOT to work and obviously people who have dropped out of the market don't get counted. Sure as many people employed as in 1973 but quality of employment means everything.

    --
    Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
  3. "Jobless claims" is not the same as unemployed by flink · · Score: 5, Informative

    Jobless claims is a deceiving statistic because it doesn't count people whose unemployment insurance expired without them finding new jobs or people who have dropped out of the labor market altogether (e.g. underemployed recent grads who move back into their parents because they can't find a job).

    The actual labor market participation rate is 63.0, which, outside of last year, is the lowest it's been since the late 70's. See Labor Force Participation Rate from Dept. of Labor. I couldn't save a URL that pointed to the full series, but just adjust the start date back to 1976 to see the graph.

    What's really happening is that capital is doing great, but the recovery from the financial crisis of 2007/8 has been largely jobless.

  4. Re:Hm [gray areas] by Tablizer · · Score: 5, Informative

    Unemployment statistics are a contentious topic because there are many "in betweens" to "unemployed". For example, a retired person may take up a job if it pays well and is convenient in terms of work/home balance, but otherwise are not spending much effort seeking. Does that make them "unemployed"? A prototypical "housewife" (house-spouse=PC?) may be in the same boat.

    Because of these gray areas, it's been generally agreed as a de facto standard to ONLY count those "actively seeking" unemployment. This is usually measured by a combination of random surveys, and unemployment applications, which typically ask one to list companies contacted. (Since they don't need to fill out such forms when benefits run out, the random surveys are used to fill in the gaps.)

    Sometimes political trolls will say, "unemployment is actually [really high percent] instead of the 5% official number; you are being lied to!". When probed, it will usually be found that they are using a statistic that includes one of gray area categories, like those mentioned above.

    The same trolls will then often switch metrics again when their favorite politician or party is in power to make them look better.

    Because what's usually used is merely a de facto standard, the trolls are not technically lying; just being manipulative. Most political "lies" are actually manipulation of words and misleading statistical games rather than being outright wrong.

  5. Re:Don't let facts get in your way... by hrvatska · · Score: 5, Informative

    Unemployment rates are not based on unemployment claims. They are based on a random survey of 60,000 households. Here's some information on how the various employment rates are calculated.