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Global Catastrophe, Even Human Extinction, Isn't All That Unlikely (theatlantic.com)
HughPickens.com writes: Robinson Meyer writes in The Atlantic that in its annual report on "global catastrophic risk," the Global Challenges Foundation estimates the risk of human extinction due to climate change -- or an accidental nuclear war at 0.1 percent every year. That may sound low, but when extrapolated to century-scale it comes to a 9.5 percent chance of human extinction within the next hundred years. The report holds catastrophic climate change and nuclear war far above other potential causes, and for good reason citing multiple occasions when the world stood on the brink of atomic annihilation. While most of these occurred during the Cold War, another took place during the 1990s, the most peaceful decade in recent memory. The closest may have been on September 26, 1983, when a bug in the U.S.S.R. early-warning system reported that five NATO nuclear missiles had been launched and were bound for Russian targets. The officer watching the system, Stanislav Petrov, had also designed the system, and he decided that any real NATO first-strike would involve hundreds of I.C.B.M.s. Therefore, he resolved the computers must be malfunctioning. He did not fire a response.
Climate change also poses its own risks. [PDF] According to Meyer, serious veterans of climate science now suggest that global warming will spawn continent-sized superstorms by the end of the century. Sebastian Farquhar says that even more conservative estimates can be alarming: UN-approved climate models estimate that the risk of six to ten degrees Celsius of warming exceeds 3 percent, even if the world tamps down carbon emissions at a fast pace... Any year, there's always some chance of a super-volcano erupting or an asteroid careening into the planet. Both would of course devastate the areas around ground zero -- but they would also kick up dust into the atmosphere, blocking sunlight and sending global temperatures plunging.
Natural pandemics may pose the most serious risks of all. In fact, in the past two millennia, the only two events that experts can certify as global catastrophes of this scale were plagues. The Black Death of the 1340s felled more than 10 percent of the world population. Another epidemic of the Yersinia pestis bacterium -- the "Great Plague of Justinian" in 541 and 542 -- killed between 25 and 33 million people, or between 13 and 17 percent of the global population at that time. The report briefly explores other possible risks: a genetically engineered pandemic, geo-engineering gone awry, an all-seeing artificial intelligence. "We do not expect these risks to materialize tomorrow, or even this year, but we should not ignore them," says Farquhar. "Although many risks are addressed by specific groups, we need to build a community around global catastrophic risk. Cooperation is the only way for global leaders to manage the risks that threaten humanity."
Climate change also poses its own risks. [PDF] According to Meyer, serious veterans of climate science now suggest that global warming will spawn continent-sized superstorms by the end of the century. Sebastian Farquhar says that even more conservative estimates can be alarming: UN-approved climate models estimate that the risk of six to ten degrees Celsius of warming exceeds 3 percent, even if the world tamps down carbon emissions at a fast pace... Any year, there's always some chance of a super-volcano erupting or an asteroid careening into the planet. Both would of course devastate the areas around ground zero -- but they would also kick up dust into the atmosphere, blocking sunlight and sending global temperatures plunging.
Natural pandemics may pose the most serious risks of all. In fact, in the past two millennia, the only two events that experts can certify as global catastrophes of this scale were plagues. The Black Death of the 1340s felled more than 10 percent of the world population. Another epidemic of the Yersinia pestis bacterium -- the "Great Plague of Justinian" in 541 and 542 -- killed between 25 and 33 million people, or between 13 and 17 percent of the global population at that time. The report briefly explores other possible risks: a genetically engineered pandemic, geo-engineering gone awry, an all-seeing artificial intelligence. "We do not expect these risks to materialize tomorrow, or even this year, but we should not ignore them," says Farquhar. "Although many risks are addressed by specific groups, we need to build a community around global catastrophic risk. Cooperation is the only way for global leaders to manage the risks that threaten humanity."
There were many close calls during the cold war, roughly 10 to 20 serious ones, depending on how you score them.
Hard to say. Nuclear war doesn't necessarily mean "extinction".
a mere 15 million years ago CO2 levels were 4 times higher, average temperature was several degrees warmer, and seas were 200 feet higher.
200 foot sea level rise (your words, not mine) would probably count as a global catastrophe.
And this is the problem with climate change. How can we take this very serious issue to heart when you get garbage like this predicting global extinction and the end of the human race.
Humans are the most resilient species in the world. We live in Siberia. We live in the Sahara. The notion that we'll go extinct due to climate change is laughable. Unless "extinct" in this context means a few hundred million displaced simply because they want to keep the lifestyle they are accustomed to (i.e. move because of weather, move because their water front property is now an under water property etc).
I rate the chance of human extinction this century at zero percent. 9% chance of humans being greatly impacted due to their own activity is believable, but that doesn't make for a very exciting headline.
It rose over 300 feet at the end of the last ice age, humanity thrived. Sucks if you own beachfront property but not a problem for most of humanity, let alone an extinction level event. Ignorance of natural history is required to believe this scaremongering.
how to deal with quarantine
We have idiots now who refuse vaccinations that move freely among the population. We have what could be charitably called porous borders. Hell, even at the start of the AIDS pandemic when the mechanisms weren't clearly understood, public health took a back seat to the inference of homophobia.
Don't underestimate the power of social policy to completely undermine responding to a crisis. When I tested positive for TB eons ago, I was given a choice of 6 months of antibiotics or 4 months locked away. If a largish portion of the population were faced with the same today, you might as well write us off as dead as the coughing protest about the implied loss of dignity, historical prejudice, and freedom of religion lead us down the cliff.
Somehow this post misses the point. Yes, the species Homo sapiens sapiens L. can survive in an environment with 4 times the CO2 levels. No problem with that. What won't survive is the civilisation we built ourselves that eases the survival, and that allows us to be 7 billions and counting. No other animal of more than 10 pound body weight has 7 billion specimens out there with the possible exception of animals we grow for ourselves. What global warming means are large migratory movements of people fleeing higher sea levels and deserts that change their size and location. What global warming means is new distribution fights for ressources. Even small, local climate changes by moving trade wind patterns caused civilisations to collapse, accompagnied by war, pandemics and devastation of large regions. With today's technology and the fast moving climate change globally, we face a global war, and we still have overkill capacity -- even if we don't use the nuclear arsenal.
Yes, a nice example is to look at a hi-resolution photo of Earth from space. Much of humanity lives along coastlines and rivers, especially where a river meets the sea, as you get ocean access and river access to both global and inland trade, along with fresh water and a convenient way to get rid of waste.
/CDSServlet?status=ND0xODc3JjY9ZW4mMzM9KiYzNz1rb3M~
Civilization settled where trade was convenient, with few exceptions. Before flight, water was the best, fastest way to trade. Once we mastered the sea, and were no longer confined to rivers and coastlines, civilization flourished with increasing speed. A few centuries back
According to Harvard University,* in this era: " More than 2 billion people, an estimated 37 percent of the world's population, live within 60 miles of the coast and would be affected, directly or indirectly, by incursions of the sea."
If we increase that to about 93 miles,** then the number jumps to approximately 44 percent.
The Harvard article is talking about a 3 to 5 foot increase in sea levels wiping out much of the coastal infrastructure worldwide, as much of it is built on flood plains frequently no more than 3 feet or so above sea level.
I would think it a safe bet that a 300 foot rise in sea level would affect a great many more, likely much more than 50 percent.
*Harvard:
http://environment.harvard.edu/node/3272
http://www.oceansatlas.org/servlet
**UN atlas of the oceans:
Donald Trump, on a crusade to make Nixon look respectable
In fact, if another planet's advanced life resembled us too closely, it seems likely we have a common ancestry.
Happiness in intelligent people is the rarest thing I know.
Ernest Hemingway
Or are you seriously suggesting that given the choice of drowning or spending money in moving we as a civilization will choose to drown?
Who is this 'we'?
I think the elite will choose for you and I to drown, if they can arrange it. If the land area is reduced, the carrying capacity will be reduced.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
Religion and its attendant discipline kept civilization alive in Western Europe after the fall of Rome. I suspect it would do the same again.
That's the nicest description of the dark ages I've ever seen.
The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
Mankind survived actual ice ages (well, glaciation in the current ice age) with no technology. The species is more than 100 k years old, after all. If we can do it with stone knives and bear skins, we're hardly at risk for extinction today.
Wow - just wow. Pretty impressive that humanity is beyond extinction.
You are correct about runaway greenhouse effect - the earth has endured much higher CO2 and perhaps methane levels in the past. That's how we got geologic ages where the average temperatures were warmer than the present, even though we had less insolation due to the dimmer sun of the times.
But given that almost all species that ever lived have gone extinct, I don't think we are immune.
The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
The fact that our climate models are incapable of proving whether or not this is true, or even whether or not it comes true at some point, should give you pause when considering the veracity of our current models.
When the only tool you have is a claw hammer every problem starts to look like the back of someone's skull.