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Climate-Exodus Expected In The Middle East And North Africa (phys.org)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Phys.Org: Researchers of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and the Cyprus Institute in Nicosia have calculated that the Middle East and North Africa could become so hot that human habitability is compromised. The goal of limiting global warming to less than two degrees Celsius, agreed at the recent UN climate summit in Paris, will not be sufficient to prevent this scenario. The result is deeply alarming: Even if Earth's temperature were to increase on average only by two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, the temperature in summer in these regions will increase more than twofold. This means that during hot days temperatures south of the Mediterranean will reach around 46 degrees Celsius (approximately 114 degrees Fahrenheit) by mid-century. Such extremely hot days will occur five times more often than was the case at the turn of the millennium. In combination with increasing air pollution by windblown desert dust, the environmental conditions could become intolerable and may force people to migrate.

154 of 240 comments (clear)

  1. That's one way to convince the deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Tell them that if we don't take action soon, more Muslims will move to their neighborhood.

    1. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by NotInHere · · Score: 2

      I don't think republicans or anybody else will really care. If there are 1 billion people who want to move into your country with a few hundred million people, you always will have to say "no", even if they all were evangelicals or had other kinds of religions the republicans *would* like. The sheer number of it will just drown this religion argument, or any other argument. It will just be about bikeshedding issues about how to keep them all out of the place. Like whether to put automatically shooting devices at the border line or whether to man it with guards.

    2. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by chadenright · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Humanity has come reasonably close to a local extinction event a couple times in the last couple millennia. The black plague, in medieval europe, for example had about a 90% kill rate, comparable with what modern militaries would like to see in an engineered bio weapon.

      What is new in the last century is that humanity is now capable of initiating its very own mass, global extinction event. Global warming could easily be comparable in scope, scale, and damage to a nuclear holocaust and the death toll due to global warming in the next one hundred years -is- going to be measured in percentages of total human population on planet earth. That is, in part, what this article is talking about. People are going to migrate or else they are going to die, and some of them will die.

      Is this starting to sound like something you might be interested in? Homo sapiens, as a species, may in the near future cease to exist. I'd like our species epitaph NOT to read "Died from their own greed and nearsightedness." That is -your- greed and nearsightedness, in case you were wondering.

    3. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by MightyMartian · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The history of mass migrations suggest that even powerful states can be overwhelmed. Rome, Byzantium, Medieval Islamic civilization and China were all unable to prevent massive amounts of migrant peoples, and where the states weren't outright wiped out, they were heavily damaged.

      Europe can't even cope with migrants from Syria and North Africa as they are. Now imagine what it would take to prevent many times more than that trying to get into Europe. Could Turkey hold them back? If Turkey fails, could the Balkan states prevent millions of people? And what about the Mediterranean, will the British Royal Navy start laying mines and sinking any boat that tries to get across?

      The ramifications of massive migrations out of the Middle East and North Africa for Europe are enormous, and judging by the reactions to current migrations, I think we can see how destabilising and dangerous they will be.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    4. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by dwywit · · Score: 4, Informative

      You're being selective. The plagues during the first half of the second millennium were estimated to have killed killed from 30% to 60% of the population of Europe+Asia. You're making it sound like it killed 90% - that was the death rate from people who caught it. The rest of the population either a. weren't exposed, or b. resistant.

      --
      They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
    5. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by Teckla · · Score: 1

      The black plague, in medieval europe, for example had about a 90% kill rate, comparable with what modern militaries would like to see in an engineered bio weapon.

      For what it's worth, I typed this into Google: what percentage of the population did the black plague kill

      And got this:

      Spreading throughout the Mediterranean and Europe, the Black Death is estimated to have killed 30–60% of Europe's total population. In total, the plague reduced the world population from an estimated 450 million down to 350–375 million in the 14th century.

    6. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by SuperKendall · · Score: 2

      And you are acting like an outright lie doesn't color the rest of the message entirely. Which it does.

      Try not lying so blatantly the next time you are trying to scare people into conformance with your religion.

      --
      "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    7. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by Oligonicella · · Score: 1

      Global warming could easily be comparable

      And it could easily not be.

    8. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      That completely illogical statement takes into no account the current level of technology. Already you are seeing massive breaks being put onto immigration and fence and armed guards are going up all over the place. You can not have massive human migration without there being same place for them to migrate too and quite simply they will not allow it. Expect higher and higher fences and more and more heavily armed security and you can bet the will employ the same solution that immigrant Americans used against the American nations, biological weapons, they will spread highly infectious diseases on purpose in the refugee camps on the other side of the boundary fences. In stressed environmental conditions mass exodus of populations will not be tolerated, simply never happen. We have already hit a solid wall of rejection in Europe at the current numbers let alone ten times that and ten times current numbers would result in the use of biological weapons.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    9. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by swb · · Score: 2

      Rome in particular is a questionable example of that logic.

      First of all, was it even migration necessarily? Roman citizenship used to be limited to classes of people who actually came from the city itself. As time passed, the class of people who could be citizens and further regions of the empire were granted citizenship.

      Many of the "migrants" who moved to Rome weren't migrants, but slaves brought to Rome after conquest of new territories. And I've also read a logic employed similarly to support contemporary immigration that they brought with them things that were appropriated by Rome for its own benefit, not to mention the labor value needed to support a growing civilization and city-state.

      Plus by about 100 CE the Empire was geographically quite large, raising the question as to how much was migration and how much was just Romanized people moving around the existing empire. You don't think of people moving to Florida from Minnesota as necessarily a destabilizing form of migration, and a lot of the people who may have moved from Gaul to Rome were already living as Romans, speaking Latin and living in Roman cities in the provinces.

      Some of Rome's problems in the late Republican period were due to mass migrations that had nothing to do with Rome. The Cimbrian wars were caused by mass migrations from Germania into Northern Italy, migrations that continued destabilizing the greater Roman frontier and largely serving to motivate Caesar's conquest of Gaul, which for better or for worse sorted out and pacified the regional conflicts of mass migrations into Gaul for at least a century if not longer.

      To the extent that later mass migrations resulted in the fall of Rome, it's probably a better explanation that Rome had other problems, such as internal corruption and an economic structure that weakened the state and made a large frontier structurally unsupportable.

    10. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by ganjadude · · Score: 1

      if i have 100 people, and 30 die - rebuilding is easy

      if 90 die, not so much

      yes, it IS a big difference, and thats the exact argument that makes people AGW deniers. instead of going with facts, a lot of global warming people like to push worst case and ignore reality

      --
      have you seen my sig? there are many others like it but none that are the same
    11. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by Teckla · · Score: 1

      You are acting like quibbling over whether the number was 90% of the exposed population, or 30% of the total population, is important and you're ignoring my point. Let's take another example. Smallpox wiped out the great majority of Native Americans when they were exposed. How many? Nobody knows for sure. It was lots. Humanity is inflicting itself with another situation in which we will be quibbling over what percentage of the total population was killed or harmed by it, and the percentages could be similar. This is the point that I'm trying to make and if you're too cowardly to acknowledge it, there's not much point in continuing the conversation.

      I'm not quibbling or addressing your point at all. I'm just correcting a single factual error in your post. I'm not saying the correction strengthens or weakens your argument at all. I thin you're mistaking me for someone who is arguing with you.

    12. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 1

      I'm betting there won't even be mass exodus but rather a mass increase in air conditioners. The only thing stopping it is corruption and warlordism.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    13. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      He's not quibbling... he's just wrong. The Black Plauge did not kill 30%, 60%, or 90%. The Black Plague killed 100% of Europeans and the entire civilization was wiped out. True story. Either we stop global warming by taxing the shit out of people who have more money then me... or the skies will fall, the oceans will rise, and Jesus will return. Anyone who disagrees with me hates science.

    14. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by Reziac · · Score: 1

      Also, the big migrations mostly happened after the climate cooled off (causing crop failures and famines in northern regions), not during the Roman warm period. By that point Rome had already pulled back and was falling apart internally.

      Further, research on the Sahara indicates that during warm periods, it gets enough moisture that it greens up. Is that not more habitable than a rocky desert? North Africa was Rome's breadbasket (and had Roman cities which are now covered by sand). What is it now?

      And finally, an average degree or two one way or the other makes damn little difference in how tolerable the heat is... I say as a longtime desert dweller who worked outdoors in temps up to +122F. But a couple degrees average cooling is sufficient to bring on an ice age. Which do you prefer?

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
    15. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Ecologically speaking, humanity is an extinction-level event.

      Diseases, however tailored, aren't going to wipe out the species. Nobody wants to engineer a biological weapon that will kill 90% of the population, because it's impossible to target those things precisely, and governments want to keep their own population more or less intact.

      Global warming is going to cause a lot of problems. It isn't going to wipe out the species or destroy civilization. It could wipe out large numbers of people and be really expensive, but humans are good at adapting (themselves and their environment, doesn't really matter).

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    16. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      You're referring to powerful states in periods where there were large populations of nomads, expert in mounted archery, and fearsome barbarians, so there were the awesome invaders vs. the terrified natives. That hasn't applied in centuries.

      Nowadays, the natives have well-organized, well-trained, and well-equipped armies, capable of dealing with many times their number of brave but less organized invaders.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    17. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by Plumpaquatsch · · Score: 1

      You're being selective. The plagues during the first half of the second millennium were estimated to have killed killed from 30% to 60% of the population of Europe+Asia. You're making it sound like it killed 90% - that was the death rate from people who caught it. The rest of the population either a. weren't exposed, or b. resistant.

      That count ignores people that didn't die from the plague itself, but because e.g many of the healers died, resulting in death from things otherwise easily curable. Or because their parents died and couldn't feed them. Et cetera.

      --
      Of course news about a fake are Fake News.
    18. Re:That's one way to convince the deniers by Stuarticus · · Score: 1

      I trust your judgement, let's take that gamble. Or not.

      --
      If you think someone isn't free to have a different definition of "freedom" you may be a tyrant.
  2. global warming still better then what NK can get t by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 1

    global warming still better then what NK can get to any one for 100,000,000 C

  3. Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by SuperKendall · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Look at the seasonal variation of temperatures in Bahgdad.

    A shift of a few degrees C is nothing compared to normal seasonal variation, even adjusting the topmost temperatures doesn't mean that much difference in reality.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by DigiShaman · · Score: 1, Troll

      It's to give the globalist elite an excuse to import cheap islamic labor into Europe and America; all under the auspices of humanitarian aid caused by Global Warming.

      Wrap this thread up, done and done!

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
    2. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by Hylandr · · Score: 2, Informative

      114 is a cold day for a Tucson summer.

      What are these climate-whiners on about this time?

      --
      ~ People that think they are better than anyone else for any reason are the cause of all the strife in the world.
    3. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Insightful

      A shift of a few degrees C is nothing compared to normal seasonal variation

      For people, that is true. People are not going to die of the heat. But their crops and pastures will dry out. So the people will either move or starve. The problem is that there is no where to move to. Even Syrians, who are more educated and secular that most other Middle Eastern people, are not wanted anywhere.

    4. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

      And the swamp coolers keep it pretty nice inside. I wasn't impressed with 114 either. Yeah, it's hot as hell, but it's nothing a little beer can't remedy. And with all that sunlight, they can power up enough air conditioners and desalinators to stay comfortable. It's not like the old days, except for the political bullshit, the region could be made into a real paradise.

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    5. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      And Tucson is 5 degrees (2.77C) degrees cooler than Phoenix. Almost pleasant if ou are used to the later. Awesome monsoons too.

    6. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by quantaman · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Look at the seasonal variation of temperatures in Bahgdad.

      A shift of a few degrees C is nothing compared to normal seasonal variation, even adjusting the topmost temperatures doesn't mean that much difference in reality.

      Of course that's only kinda relevant if the temperature increases uniformly which it doesn't

      In the Middle East and North Africa, the average temperature in winter will rise by around 2.5 degrees Celsius (left) by the middle of the century, and in summer by around five degrees Celsius (right) if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase according to the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8,5).

      That's ~9F, would you consider that change in your summertime average to be inconsequential? The average high in Baghdad in July is 44C, if the projection is right it will become 49C, I suspect there's a few places you start to consider uninhabitable at that point.

      --
      I stole this Sig
    7. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by Gavagai80 · · Score: 1

      People in Tuscon are wealthy enough to own air conditioning.

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      This space intentionally left blank
    8. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      I lived in Phoenix wen it got up to 50C one day and was/is regularly above 45C. And no AC either other than at work.

    9. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 4, Insightful

      A shift of a few degrees C is nothing
      Says the guy who grasps nothing.

      The link you gave is using Celsius as scale, not Fahrenheit.

      This article is about: if global average increases by 2C then at "hot spots" that might mean 20C or more.

      If at those hot spots such peak temperatures are reached, then the normal seasonal variation has doubled. And the peak is so high that you can't live outside anymore, that is much difference in reality.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    10. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by quantaman · · Score: 2

      I lived in Phoenix wen it got up to 50C one day and was/is regularly above 45C. And no AC either other than at work.

      And what if it was regularly 50C, and once hit 55C? You really think it's inconsequential?

      (oh, and I don't know how the shift in means affects the max with climate, but people dying in heat waves is definitely an issue in parts of the world)

      --
      I stole this Sig
    11. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by kheldan · · Score: 4, Insightful
      I don't know if you're kidding or not, but you represent a third of the problem:

      The weather is nice where I am, so I don't think the problem is real

      Then here's another third of the problem:

      The weather is terrible where I am and it used to be fine
      Followed by:
      Oh, well, just because it's bad where you are doesn't mean global warming is real

      Then the final third of the problem:

      Oh hi we're climate scientists! Since you apparently aren't paying attention to what we're saying, we're going to say it louder and be more extreme to try to make you listen!
      Followed closely by:
      Oh, well, you're just being alarmists!

      This is then exacerbated by extremists on both sides of the equation tossing around their conspiracy theories, pseudo-science, tree-hugging anti-human rhetoric, plain old-fashioned politicking, and the religious types who quietly tell you it's all part of "Gods plan", "the End Times are coming", and "soon there will be Heaven on Earth and none of this will matter anymore", or whatever other nonsense they spout. So nothing actually gets done to prove anything one way or another because everyone just keeps arguing. What will 'decide' if it's real or not will be if it either becomes Too Late To Do Anything About It (at which time everyone will continue to argue, this time about whose fault it is), or it just Goes Away On It's Own (in which case everyone will continue to argue, this time about who was wrong, who was right, and why).

      You want the TL;DR version?

      Doesn't matter, we're doomed one way or another, because humans are fucking stupid, especially in large groups

      --
      Are YOU using the TOOL, or is the TOOL using YOU? Think about it!
    12. Re: Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by Namarrgon · · Score: 4, Informative

      Average high temp for a Tucson summer is 99 degrees, so no, 114 is not a cold day. In fact, there's only 7 days on record where it's ever reached that high.

      --
      Why would anyone engrave "Elbereth"?
    13. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      I can't tell the difference past 46. It just sucks, but you deal with it. Work at night or early morning when possible, drink lots of water. Same as below -15, it becomes difficult to differentiate. And cooling is less energy intensive than heating and is easily accomplished with zero CO2. It also maps well to solar.

    14. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

      There was a reason the Romans thought the Huns were representative of the End Times. A civilization can be challenged to its core without all of humanity being threatened. But so far as the Romans were concerned, the threat was existential.

      Now imagine millions more people than now are trying to get into Europe using any means they can to get there. If Europe pushes back by closing the borders and using military force to keep the migrants at bay, at some point they're going to get organized, and you may find some ISIL leader becoming the next Attila the Hun. Maybe the West can stop it, but the costs will mount, and one of the victims, apart of hundreds of thousands of people, will be much of what we long thought made the West superior and special.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    15. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by hey! · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Except we're not talking about Baghdad getting uniformly 2C warmer, every day of the year. We're talking about 60 additional hot days in the summer with the rest of the year being roughly similar to today. Those sixty days would, almost own their own, raise the year-round average by more than 4C (not 2C). For that to happen the temperature increase on these days be closer to +20C, rather than +2C.

      A lot of denialist reckoning does this kind of simplistic reckoning -- e.g., assuming 2C global warming means exactly 2C warmer, uniformly distributed in space and season across the globe. That of course would only amount to a trivial change. But what you're actually going to get is vast increases in extreme weather (hot AND cold) which averaged out across the globe.

      Think of it this way: imagine we hold the global increase in temperature to 2C. The amount of additional kinetic energy per unit volume represented by that additional 2C, integrated over the immense volume of the atmosphere, works out to be a staggering amount of total energy, which will change the patterns of weather. Since that immense fluid is rotating, the additional energy cannot mix and diffuse out uniformly and neatly; instead it will drive massive eddies of hot and cold migrating out of their old geographic limits. You'll get all kinds of extreme weather both hot AND cold, it just all averages out to +2C temperature-wise.

      To put that perspective, current estimates are that we're capturing an additional 8 x 10^21 joules of extra solar energy per year, every single year.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    16. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by AaronW · · Score: 2

      How about if you don't have air conditioning? A lot of people in the ME can't afford it and the power is often intermittent at best in many places. Also, clean water can be a luxury in many places in the ME.

      --
      This post is encrypted twice with ROT-13. Documenting or attempting to crack this encryption is illegal.
    17. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by dryeo · · Score: 1

      That's not really true, lots of Canadian climate scientists lost their paychecks when they were told to stop talking and didn't.

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    18. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by myowntrueself · · Score: 1

      114 is a cold day for a Tucson summer.

      What are these climate-whiners on about this time?

      The problem isn't just the temperature, its the humidity. Past a certain humidity you don't lose body heat through sweating. Then you just cook from the excess heat your metabolism generates.

      --
      In the free world the media isn't government run; the government is media run.
    19. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by Hylandr · · Score: 1

      The 'Feels like' Temperature is a recent addition to weather forecasts and is largely imaginary.

      Are you saying that these ''Feels Like" numbers are what are being used to calculate the global temps?

      --
      ~ People that think they are better than anyone else for any reason are the cause of all the strife in the world.
    20. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by myowntrueself · · Score: 2

      The 'Feels like' Temperature is a recent addition to weather forecasts and is largely imaginary.

      Are you saying that these ''Feels Like" numbers are what are being used to calculate the global temps?

      Not at all.

      As human beings we lose heat by sweating. If the air around you is saturated with water vapor sweating does not work. If the air temperature is high enough you will not lose heat and you will die.

      --
      In the free world the media isn't government run; the government is media run.
    21. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by Hylandr · · Score: 1

      OK, that's not what we were discussing. ;)

      --
      ~ People that think they are better than anyone else for any reason are the cause of all the strife in the world.
    22. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by pipingguy · · Score: 1

      #ClimateScience reporting doesn't have to make sense; it's only there to sustain the alarmism and keep the government funding flowing.

    23. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by Type44Q · · Score: 1

      At what, five thousand feet above sea level? Apples to oranges. You should try Muskogee at 97 degrees. You can watch the mold spread across the wallpaper in realtime...

    24. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by 0111+1110 · · Score: 1

      You forgot the anti-simulationists like me. I can write a computer simulation too, and if I do write one I can pretty much guarantee that *my* simulation will not include mass migrations based on a 2 degree rise in global temperature which certainly seems absurd or at least very counter-intuitive. Somehow the current temperature, the exact one we have now is the only one in which human beings can survive? I call bullshit on that. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Maybe my simulation will include aliens from a far more advanced simulation landing to help out equatorial desert countries as CO2 levels increase. Since it is a computer simulation and that is now considered science it can't be wrong. So it will have to be right.

      --
      Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave.
    25. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by SydShamino · · Score: 1

      Exactly. People who point out that Canada will become more arable (eventually) don't usually realize that Canada might not want a large influx of Americans, nor will America want a large influx of Mexicans who can no longer farm their lands. Even assuming the same total amount of land remains capable of producing food, the migrations necessary to get people near those lands will spark several wars and lots of pain and suffering.

      --
      It doesn't hurt to be nice.
    26. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by Stinky+Cheese+Man · · Score: 1

      But... Could! Might! Maybe!

      We must act now before it's too late!

      Because models!

    27. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Not sure why you're talking about faking data. To me it looks like you don't understand the ramifications of statistical variation. A moving of the average leads to a much larger effect at the extremes, and especially when everything relation to temperature is exponential.

      Besides, we're talking about people without air conditioners. Big difference.

    28. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by Captain+Splendid · · Score: 1

      . As soon as it became political

      When was that?

      --
      Linux, you magnificent bastard, I read the fucking manual!
    29. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by danbert8 · · Score: 1

      This. So much this. The globe is probably warming, we probably have something to do with it. But do I trust computer models? HELL NO. Just because you can throw a lot of variables into a computer and have it churn out graphs and maps doesn't make that data analysis worth shit. Until you have done actual experiments and compared them with the predicted results of your simulation (you know, REAL science) those simulations are nothing more than an interesting science fiction. Write up a climate modeling simulation, take the baseline based on the data we have now, and in 10,000 years we can compared what actually happened to the model. Until then, all we have is wild ass guesses.

      It doesn't matter how many variables you correct and how many adjustments are programmed in. The climate is a chaotic system with a ridiculous number of variables, most of which we can't predict at all.

      --
      Yes it's an anecdote! Were you expecting original research in a Slashdot comment?
    30. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by dave420 · · Score: 1

      Because they are not allowed to work, because so many delicate princesses in the countries in question are so scared of their jobs that people fleeing for their lives from warzones pose strong competition in the job market.

      But please keep spouting your xenophobic, cowardly narrative. Whatever gets you through the night, appropriately-named Anonymous Coward.

    31. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by GameboyRMH · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Scott Adams makes two great mistakes in that blog post: The first is that he blames science instead of industry for industry-led pseudoscientific disinformation campaigns (diet and tobacco specifically, and presumably also climate). He lays it all at the feet of science for failing to overpower these efforts with hardly a finger shaken at industry. He is saying that science has a credibility problem because of industry's lies. That's bullshit.

      The second is that he fails to see that the wrongness of science is relative. Apparently until some extremely stringent rightness threshold is passed, science's answers are uselessly wrong, and telling people to cut down on fatty foods to prevent obesity was as wrong as telling them that they're fat because they're full of demons. That's also bullshit.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    32. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by silentcoder · · Score: 2

      I've said for a long time that the greatest loss of life from climate change will be people killed by other people. Resource wars have a tendency to be exceptionally brutal, especially when the resources in question are essentials like food and water.

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
    33. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by dave420 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      How have the scientists lost all credibility? Their findings are fine - no one has managed to challenge them. The thing about science is it doesn't matter who pays for what - the findings must stand up to scientific rigour before they are accepted into the general body of knowledge.

      It sounds like you don't understand the scientific method, and are looking for any excuse to stick your fingers in your ears. You are wasting your brain, but I think you know that, and simply don't care. What a wonderful example for future generations.

    34. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by silentcoder · · Score: 2

      Tectonic drift was first proven on a computer simulation, we didn't have the technology to confirm it with first-hand observation until it had been consennsus for almost 3 decades.
      That was done on an early predecessor of the PDP-10. The thing was archaic.

      We have much better simulation systems now, much better hardware to run them on - and far better statistical analysis teams to set the parameters and figure out what the results mean.

      I've never yet encountered and anti-simulationist who had a sane argument against using simulations to study things. Simulations have been the means by which we did experiments that were otherwise impossible for many decades. They are a key part of every field of science. If you reject them, you are literally putting us back to 1930 in every single field of human endeavour. That's pretty fucking crazy.
      Einstein praised "Gedanken experiments" (thought experiments) as a critical part of the scientific method - before committing lots of time and money into testing an idea - first run a test in your own mind and at least try to figure out if it *should* work. Sometimes an actual experiments isn't even possible or nobody has figured out a way to do one (yet) so this is a key feature of science. Einstein used one to test the idea of gravitational lensing, we didn't have a way to prove it with a physical experiment until nearly 10 years later - and we only started having any ways of testing such things without waiting for rare events like Jupiterian eclipses in the last few years (and have recently used some of that advanced technology to test and confirm another of his predictions - gravitational waves).
      Simulations have been key in recent refinements to and improvements to evolutionary theory as well.

      Simulations are thought experiments taken to the next level. They don't run on quite so powerful a computer, true, but on the other hand they can be scrutinized - they can be adjusted and improved and re-run with those improvements - which makes them, over all, a great improvement.
      Thought experiments have the problem that you can unconsciously alter the parameters of the experiment (like, say, the exact force of gravity) to show what you're expecting, a computer simulation places those parameters under peer-reviewable scrutiny.

      It's true that even the best simulation is still not as good as a physical experiment, but where physical experiments are not actually possible they are a critical next-best-thing. We can't do a physical experiment to test the big bang theory (or compare two slightly different versions of it), because nobody has yet figured out how to build a control universe. But we can take all the knowledge we have, plug them into a simulation and see whether the results match predictions. We can't do an experiment to figure out how complex systems like eyes evolve because nobody has a control-earth to compare against, but we can create a simulation in which a simulated organism is put under selection pressure, with a simple light-sensitive cell and allowed random mutations with the most sensitive ones surviving to breed ... and confirm that within a hundred generations they have recognizable eyes - complete with reshapable focussing lenses like ours.

      So why is simulations critical and accepted in every field of science (including ones like evolution which are infinitely more chaotic and difficult to predict than climate)... but not in climate ?

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
    35. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by dave420 · · Score: 2

      In other words you really have no idea what you're talking about. No data has been faked. It's not "statistically less likely to happen than getting hit by a meteor". It's not ONLY the summer, as has been explained to you time and time again. So yes, it is "straight-up" the realm of idiots and fools, as you made it up.

      You are the only one here lying, and it's your religion which is becoming toast. Hint: If you find yourself calling the scientific method bogus, you might just be an idiot.

    36. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by Hylandr · · Score: 1

      Al Gore,

      Also known as the "Goracle".

      --
      ~ People that think they are better than anyone else for any reason are the cause of all the strife in the world.
    37. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by Hylandr · · Score: 1

      You're not paying attention then.

      --
      ~ People that think they are better than anyone else for any reason are the cause of all the strife in the world.
    38. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by Captain+Splendid · · Score: 1

      That's a name, not a date.

      --
      Linux, you magnificent bastard, I read the fucking manual!
    39. Re: Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by Do+You+Smell+That · · Score: 1

      Just a thought, but instead of spending the time telling the GP to pound sand, shouldn't you have asked your city why they're lying about their published weather data? At the least, ask them to install a weather station in your neighborhood, due to extreme local variation from the available measurements?

      --
      I'm not good at making signatures...
    40. Re: Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by Hylandr · · Score: 1

      A good question and offered solution if I still lived in that god-forsaken state. As far as I am concerned it can pound sand too. Every pun intended.

      It's been established that everyone that's crying 'the sky is falling' WANT to believe the sky is falling and refuse to examine the situation in it's entirety and place themselves at ease. I have mentally lumped them in with people that believe we are being poisoned by chem-trails and that the lunar landing was faked.

      It's not worth my time validating and verifying every temp over the last 25 years ( The last time I lived in Arizona ) . Eventually, and it seems sooner than later now ( thankfully ) that the pendulum of reason is beginning to swing back towards the 'sane' side of things.

      --
      ~ People that think they are better than anyone else for any reason are the cause of all the strife in the world.
    41. Re:Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by david_thornley · · Score: 2

      I've been paying attention. I've seen a lot of people decide for stupid reasons that global warming can't be happening, and since climate scientists say that it is they need to come up with inane reasons why climate scientists don't have credibility. Maligning climate science and climate scientists is the hallmark of the denier. (Skeptics may be dubious of climate science, but won't make up ludicrous stories about a massive conspiracy or a whole field of scientists clinging to a false orthodoxy.)

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    42. Re: Wrong as per usual Warming Alarmists by Stuarticus · · Score: 1

      I have mentally lumped them in with people that believe we are being poisoned by chem-trails and that the lunar landing was faked.

      You mean people who don't believe in basic science and don't listen to experts in the field? Yeah, just keep trusting your gut, champ.

      --
      If you think someone isn't free to have a different definition of "freedom" you may be a tyrant.
  4. No change there, then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    the Middle East and North Africa could become so hot that human habitability is compromised.

    That's like saying Nevada might not be able to support dolphins.

  5. More Great Editing by chipschap · · Score: 5, Informative

    This is in the summary:

    "the temperature in summer in these regions will increase more than twofold"

    This literally means that if the temp averaged 90F it will then average 180F. That's a lot of climate change.

    Could we, you know, maybe have something that makes sense? Like "the temperature in summer in these regions will increase twice as much as previously expected"?

    Slashdot may have new owners but the editing hasn't quite gotten there yet.

    1. Re:More Great Editing by JesseMcDonald · · Score: 4, Informative

      "the temperature in summer in these regions will increase more than twofold"

      This literally means that if the temp averaged 90F it will then average 180F. That's a lot of climate change.

      It's worse than that, because 0F is just an arbitrary point on the temperature scale. The only sensible way to interpret a doubling of temperature is relative to absolute zero, so this means that if the temperate averaged 90F (305 Kelvin) it will then average 638F (610 Kelvin).

      That is, indeed, well outside the range of human habitability.

      --
      "The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else." - Bastiat
    2. Re:More Great Editing by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1
      It doesn't work like that because it's not an absolute scale.

      First, convert to Kelvin. 90F = 305kelvins. Then you can double it. 610kelvins. Now convert back to Fahrenheit. 610kelvins=638F.

      That's a lot of climate change.

      It's far worse than you thought. 638F. That's hot enough to melt Lead an is 200degrees above the temperature at which paper spontaneously combusts.

  6. Re:Welp, we're screwed. by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 2

    I'd guess at minimum, plant respiration would be hindered due to higher rates of evaporation.

    Plants lose moisture through leaf pores. The pores are open to absorb CO2. As CO2 levels go up, they can absorb enough CO2 through fewer and smaller pores, so they lose less water. So higher temps will be bad for plants, but the higher CO2 levels will help mitigate the problem somewhat.

  7. The Dems will see to that no matter what by frovingslosh · · Score: 1

    Heck, we're talking about a 1.3 degree or so rise in global temperature. That simply ISN'T ENOUGH! After the next election there will be a mass exodus to Canada (the liberal drug policies have already made it unsafe for U.S. citizens to flee to formerly tropical paradises). When that happens we need Canada to be a lot warmer. Maybe ten degrees if we just go to Toronto and Vancouver, but a lot more if Canada expects to take American Refugees into the vast sparsely populated wastelands to the north. Lets quit thinking about the needs of the terrorists and crank up the heat for the needs of our own families. Think of the children!

    --
    I'm an American. I love this country and the freedoms that we used to have.
    1. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by mark-t · · Score: 2

      In the months leading up to every US election I always keep hearing about how so many Americans will want to move up to Canada if or when so-and-so becomes president, and then it never happens.... even when that person wins the election.

      Honestly, it's getting old... how many times do you think you can cry 'wolf' and people will believe you?

    2. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The frozen tundra, even if completely thawed out, isn't suitable for farming. You're going to have to stop breeding so much no matter how you slice it. 1 child per family will probably be the world-wide norm in the coming years.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    3. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by Locke2005 · · Score: 1

      My Alaskan friends don't seem to have any problem with global warming; they think it's a GOOD thing! I don't know why...

      --
      I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
    4. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by Locke2005 · · Score: 1

      I beg to differ. Once the permafrost all thaws out, it can be farmed, but it's a mess for several decades while it is in the process of thawing out.

      --
      I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
    5. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by frovingslosh · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Child, are you too young to remember the Americans who moved to Canada due to the politics of the 60's and early 70's? I know people who went, and the numbers were not insignificant.

      --
      I'm an American. I love this country and the freedoms that we used to have.
    6. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by frovingslosh · · Score: 2

      The lesson we learn from California is that any soil can be made suitable for farming, just add enough fertilizer, water and sun.

      --
      I'm an American. I love this country and the freedoms that we used to have.
    7. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      You'd better hope they don't thaw out - there's a lot of methane trapped in the permafrost, and methane is a much worse greenhouse gas than CO2. Plus, it has a tendency to explode in the ground.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    8. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      And where are you going to get all that fresh water as supplies dry up?

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    9. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by MightyMartian · · Score: 3, Informative

      Forgetting, of course, the amount of methane trapped in the permafrost in Siberia and Canada, which would greatly accelerate the warming, as methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    10. Re: The Dems will see to that no matter what by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Yeah try telling that to muslim families with 7 kids if you get a word in before they kill you for not being their brand of muslim

    11. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by mark-t · · Score: 2

      Your example is not really a counterpoint to the one I was making. In fact, most of the Americans who moved to Canada at the time you refer to did not ever "threaten" to do so... they simply did, without any announcement of their intention in advance (in fact, to have done so would have defeated the purpose because of the situation they were trying to get away from).

      My point remains... historically, almost all Americans who announce that they will move to Canada based on the outcome of an election before the election has even happened do not. If the situation is truly dire enough for them, they will move without feeling any need to announce it so long in advance. In fact, the very fact that they *CAN* freely announce such a claimed intention is actually proof that the situation is not that dire anyways, and probably not worth moving to another country for. At least not for most people.

    12. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by dryeo · · Score: 1

      Well the warming isn't going to change the length of the days, something that most agriculture crops have been bred for.

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    13. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by dryeo · · Score: 1

      That'll change once the glaciers have finished melting and the fires really start burning.

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    14. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by frovingslosh · · Score: 1

      I'm arranging to melt the fresh water glaciers.

      --
      I'm an American. I love this country and the freedoms that we used to have.
    15. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by frovingslosh · · Score: 1

      What's your point? The length of days isn't shorter in most of Canada, the sunrise/sunset transitions are just a little different. In fact, if you go far enough north the summer day gets VERY long.

      --
      I'm an American. I love this country and the freedoms that we used to have.
    16. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by myowntrueself · · Score: 1

      And where are you going to get all that fresh water as supplies dry up?

      The melting ice is pretty rich in fresh water

      --
      In the free world the media isn't government run; the government is media run.
    17. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by caseih · · Score: 1

      Some Alaskans have a very different opinion.

      https://www.washingtonpost.com...

      http://www.smithsonianmag.com/...

      Alaska and Northern Canada will be some of the very first places to see the more extreme effects of warming. In fact already the ice roads are less stable than they used to be, which will eventually have a huge impact on the ability to operate mines and other economic activities in the far North. To say nothing of the natives who are finding the drastic changes very damaging their their livelihoods.

    18. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by dryeo · · Score: 1

      The growing season gets much shorter

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    19. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by Oligonicella · · Score: 1

      That wasn't because such and such got elected, it was to avoid the draft. Both Dems and Reps oversaw that conflict.

    20. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by frovingslosh · · Score: 1

      Because it is much colder there, and the killing frosts come much later in the spring and much sooner in the fall, not because of the length of daylight. And we are working on fixing the frost problems with global warming.

      --
      I'm an American. I love this country and the freedoms that we used to have.
    21. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by frovingslosh · · Score: 1

      It was a politically driven exodus. Just like now we had two bad political parties trading power, it isn't like either party then or now was responsive to the will of the people. You only have to look at the statistics on how the will of the people has no effect on passing laws when either party is in power, and the will of big business and political contributors comes out ahead of popular opinion in passing laws no matter which side is "in power".

      So I guess your point is that the 60's and 70's exodus to Canada was politically driven, just like this one will be.

      --
      I'm an American. I love this country and the freedoms that we used to have.
    22. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by DesertNomad · · Score: 1

      Define "not insignificant".

      http://www.tradingeconomics.co...

      Shows a fairly smooth and stable population for Canada, with no spikes in the 60's or 70's.

      Could it be that your idea of "significant" is pretty insignificant?

    23. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by mark-t · · Score: 1

      I said nothing about a politically driven exodus being something that never happens. I said that when they *announce* that they are going to move to Canada because of something like an election, they never actually do. It is less of a criticism that they won't ever move when they feel it is right for them to do so than it is a criticism of what they are saying, because what they are saying is usually just so much hot air if it involves actually leaving their home.

    24. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by bingoUV · · Score: 1

      I said that when they *announce* that they are going to move to Canada because of something like an election, they never actually do

      That is just making your claim more difficult to ascertain. For that, we need :

      1. the number of people that claim to intend to leave in a certain situation; AND

      2. the number of people that actually left in that situation; AND

      3. the overlap between these people.

      How do you intend to get these numbers? (1) and (2) are difficult as it is, (3) might be impossible for historical exoduses. Now, you can leave the burden of proof of *your* assertion to others, but that would be dishonest.

      This also makes the claim useless and irrelevant in this context. The original post remains un-addressed, because even if people who say they would relocate to Canada don't relocate but others relocate, the need for pre-warming up Canada remains.

      --
      Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.
    25. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by mark-t · · Score: 1

      You don't need to know (2) or (3) when actual immigration data from the USA into Canada can't even begin to corroborate the claim of (1). In fact, even the *TOTAL* number of people permanently residing in Canada who were born in the USA is only around half a million... which is barely a tenth of the number of people that said they would leave if Obama was re-elected. And that's the total number of Americans who've moved into Canada *EVER*... not just during Obama's run as president... and of course, there weren't any noteworthy spikes in immigration from the USA after the election either.

      If you won't take my word for it... listen to what the Prime Minister has to say about it.

    26. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by bingoUV · · Score: 1

      Your post is full of holes.

      In fact, even the *TOTAL* number of people permanently residing in Canada who were born in the USA is only around half a million ............. that's the total number of Americans who've moved into Canada *EVER*...

      No, others could be American citizens born elsewhere who now permanently reside in Canada.

      only around half a million... which is barely a tenth of the number of people that said they would leave if Obama was re-elected

      So 5 million said they would leave, and half a million left. Or 100 people left. That might cause your statement "I said that when they *announce* that they are going to move to Canada because of something like an election, they never actually do" to be considered false. Unless we know the overlap between the 5 million, and the half-a-million; or the 5 million and the 100.

      --
      Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.
    27. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      1 child per family leads to a ton of retirees and not enough workers to support them, ask China about that (or even look at Japan's problems).

      2 children per family makes a lot more sense.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    28. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by GNious · · Score: 1

      Yet Canadian officials quote immigration numbers, that clearly show that Americans leave "when so-and-so becomes president" to go live in Canada - what evidence did you see of the contrary?

    29. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by mark-t · · Score: 1

      Not even half a million left over that though.... that's the *total* number of people permanently living in Canada right now that were formerly or still are citizens of the USA. The number of people who have left in just the past few years is not statistically any different from the number of people who have been immigrating into Canada from the USA in the years preceding.

      *THAT* is the what I refer to when I say that most Americans that say they will move to Canada over the results of a presidential election are just actually spouting bullshit. Millions say they will... and then after the election, nothing happens.

      Okay... some probably do what they said they will, and I won't dispute that. But even if you allege that *EVERY* American that actually moves into Canada from the USA is doing so over some previously announced claim that they would do so because of election results, that number is not even 1% of the number that previously threatened they did (closer, in fact, to about 1/10 of a percent)... and there is no statistical basis to assume that all of them did anyways. While millions of Americans actually do threaten to move to Canada over election results in the months leading up to an American election, it is not anywhere close to a majority of Americans, so there's no sustainable reason to conclude that a majority of Americans that actually immigrate to the Canada had previously threatened to do so either. Even arguing the possibility that this *might* have been true rests on nothing but conjecture, while what I am talking about is supported both by actual historical immigration rates and ordinary statistics.

      The last time there was actually a significant number of immigrants from the USA into Canada was in the 60's and 70's. And back then, they didn't publicly announce they were going to do it, they just did.

    30. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by bingoUV · · Score: 1

      So you take back your statement that

        "I said nothing about a politically driven exodus being something that never happens. I said that when they *announce* that they are going to move to Canada because of something like an election, they never actually do."

      ?

      Because in that statement, you were not concerned with the actual number of relocations, just the overlap (or lack thereof) between announced intentions of relocations and actual relocations.

      Now you're saying you have no hope of ever getting information on the overlap, and are just basing your post on the actual relocations being low.

      --
      Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.
    31. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by mark-t · · Score: 1

      My criticism is not even about the overap, per se... it's about the fact that so many people say it, when so few actually do. It's more about what they are saying when they talk about leaving their country (and then don't) than it is about any lack of taking action over what they might think is the right thing for them to do.

      I expect this is particularly true for presidential elections than other kinds of political issues because even a terrible president will only be in power for a maximum of 8 years, which I suppose is viewed by most as being less of an issue on the grand scheme of things than leaving their country behind entirely. If the USA is truly a great country, and many Americans believe that it is, then in reality, it will take much more than just one lousy president to bring it to absolute ruin.

    32. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by bingoUV · · Score: 1

      That is a fair statement, you had a weird way of saying that.

      And yes, you're right, presidents have little actual power anyway.

      --
      Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.
    33. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      They're already melting - many have completely disappeared.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    34. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      So we need to improve geriatric care and slow down aging. We should want to be doing this anyway, because it's the one thing that will lower the burden on our kids as we get old. Do this, and 1 child per family is fine.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    35. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by mark-t · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure what imaginary immigration numbers these so-called officials are quoting to substantiate the claim. While it may certainly be true that some do leave, the numbers are not significant. Consider that even though millions of Americans threaten to move to Canada before the election if the results are unfavorable, the immigration rate from the US remains fairly steady in recent years at about 7 to 9 thousand people per year, which is represents less than 4% of Canada's total immigration, and less than a tenth of a percent of the people that make threats about moving to Canada. Further, since most Americans do not threaten to leave the US in anticipation of an election, there is no reason to assume that those reasons are high on the agenda for most of those who chose to immigrate to Canada anyways. There may be other political reasons, but it is usually not because of who is president. Logistically, this is probably because the president's maximum term can only be eight years, which is probably not as big a deal in the grand scheme of things as leaving one's country. What's unfortunate is that there are so many people that don't realize this before they start shooting their mouth off and say they'll move elsewhere if they don't happen to get their way.

    36. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Yeah. All those people who promised to move out of the country if Obama was elected.... I'm still waiting, guys.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    37. Re:The Dems will see to that no matter what by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      President? I thought I was running for emperor!
      - D.Trump, January 2017

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  8. Yay, more migration by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The syrian civil war was started because of a 5 year drought. We got 1 million new migrants in Europe. Unless we quit destroying the world climate we'll have 500 million migrants. Stop Using Oil Now! And retarded americans stop using gas guzzling cars.

    1. Re:Yay, more migration by Dorianny · · Score: 1

      The syrian civil war was started because of a 5 year drought. We got 1 million new migrants in Europe. Unless we quit destroying the world climate we'll have 500 million migrants. Stop Using Oil Now! And retarded americans stop using gas guzzling cars.

      The drought was just the Last straw that broke the camels back. The tensions between the Assad family Regime and the oppressed Sunni majority have been simmering since Hafez al-Assad seized power in 1970

  9. Re:Crichton was right by x0ra · · Score: 1

    Nature has *naturally* extincted probably 99% of the whole species, a few more wouldn't really matter.

  10. Kinda dated by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

    But somebody has been advising this

    --
    “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
  11. That isn't how bell curves work by JoshuaZ · · Score: 4, Interesting

    That isn't how a bell curve works. If you move a bell curve slightly to the left, the big change isn't in the average, but is in how much you have where you end up sampling from the extremes of the distribution. This is why for example, China doesn't have nearly as many top-tier soccer players as some much smaller countries, or how the best runners are almost all Kenyan even though the Kenyan isn't much faster than the average in most other populations. One very controversial example of this is how some populations (e.g. Ashkenazi Jews) have many more Fields Medal and Nobel Prize winners than one would expect naively, but if you move the average intelligence up just a tiny bit, you get a massive change in how many really brilliant people you have.

  12. A few more by bretts · · Score: 1

    Is it a few more, or everything but rats, squirrels, sparrows, feral hogs and cockroaches?

  13. heat wave by phantomfive · · Score: 1

    Either people will find it unbearable and move away,
    or the general economy will improve so much that they'll just buy air conditioning (like people in death valley).

    --
    "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  14. Re:Welp, we're screwed. by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

    Problem with that is the th emechanism of photosynthesis breaks down at higher temperatures and the plants will compete with us for O2 instead of being net producers.

    --
    "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
  15. Re:Crichton was right by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

    Climate fluctuates naturally.
    Does it?
    Then name as many natural causes or named fluctuations from your mind as you can. Feel free to stop early if you think it is to much for us :D

    --
    Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  16. Re: And this makes the Republicans... by Locke2005 · · Score: 2, Informative

    Summer heat waves have killed hundreds in Europe (mostly elderly), although it hard to distinguish "global warming" from "normal variations in temperature".

    --
    I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
  17. Re:Welp, we're screwed. by Locke2005 · · Score: 1

    Most animals will simply migrate to areas more favorable to them. Plants, on the other hand, lack feet...

    --
    I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
  18. Re:Welp, we're screwed. by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

    And how does the plant know it should grow smaller pores?

    --
    Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  19. Re:Look on the bright side by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Tundra, even thawed out, doesn't have enough topsoil to make farming possible. So forget that idea. Russia is going to be nervous about Chinese climate refugees. Both have nukes, and both share a common border in certain areas.

    --
    "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
  20. more power generation by xfizik · · Score: 2

    More reasons to build thermal and solar power generation there.

  21. Re:Welp, we're screwed. by saloomy · · Score: 1

    Angel-o-sphere, I'm not sure as IANAE, but I believe plants (and their leaves) naturally can control the pore size which helps prevent moisture loss during the night and days where its cloudy, so its a naturally occurring function for pores to open as much as needed to obtain CO2, but only as much as needed.

  22. Re:Crichton was right by chadenright · · Score: 1

    Global warming is stupid hype because we cannot look at the whole of human impact, which is regulated by population and not product choices by people in the 5% of the population that comprises the West. Climate fluctuates naturally. What does not is human use of land, which at this point is nearing epidemic proportions and will result in many extinct species. But you don't hear about that on the news.

    Humanity has come reasonably close to a local extinction event a couple times in the last couple millennia. The black plague, in medieval europe, for example had about a 90% kill rate, comparable with what modern militaries would like to see in an engineered bio weapon.

    What is new in the last century is that humanity is now capable of initiating its very own mass, global extinction event. Global warming could easily be comparable in scope, scale, and damage to a nuclear holocaust and the death toll due to global warming in the next one hundred years -is- going to be measured in percentages of total human population on planet earth. That is what this article is talking about.

    Is this starting to sound like something you might be interested in? Homo sapiens, as a species, may in the near future cease to exist. I'd like our species epitaph NOT to read "Died from their own greed and nearsightedness." That is YOUR greed and nearsightedness, in case you were wondering.

  23. Re: And this makes the Republicans... by MightyMartian · · Score: 2

    You distinguish by looking at trend lines. That means you can't definitely say any particular extreme temperature event is caused by climate change, but you can look at the overall frequency and temperatures of such events and correlate them to other data points, and can say, overall, AGW is going to be responsible for many, if not most of them.

    --
    The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
  24. Re:Welp, we're screwed. by MightyMartian · · Score: 4, Insightful

    There are benefits, but the costs overwhelm the benefits.

    A malfunctioning septic system may see your lawn grow greener, but that's usually followed by a sewage smell and a very large bill to fix the problem.

    --
    The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
  25. Twofold? by ScentCone · · Score: 1

    Who EDITS this stuff? If temperatures in the Middle East are going to increase two-fold, that's a LOT more than hitting 114F. Temps there already routinely exceed 100F ... twice that would be 200F. How about "would increase by several degrees." Except that wouldn't sound so horrific, which would take some of the fun out of the shrill rantiness.

    --
    Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
    1. Re:Twofold? by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

      In places like Dubai, regular summer temperatures could be around 117 degrees in the summer. In places like Kuwait City they could be as high as 140 degrees. That's by 2070.

      http://www.theguardian.com/env...

      I'd say even 117 is pretty fucking hot, and 140 is beyond even the maximums recorded at Death Valley.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    2. Re:Twofold? by ScentCone · · Score: 1

      Sounds pretty awful! Imagine if temps actually DID reach "twofold" there because of a global average change of two degrees. It's a bit crazy, their use of that word. If temps ANYWHERE on earth hit double, we'd be talking about a global changes WAY outside of two degrees.

      --
      Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
    3. Re:Twofold? by dave420 · · Score: 1

      It's not difficult to understand. The summary states that they will receive double the expected increase. If the extent of your argument is complaining about a slashdot summary, you might just want to stop now.

  26. One shot, one kill by bretts · · Score: 1

    I'll mention an ice age here :)

    1. Re:One shot, one kill by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      You get one point.

      Next point :D ?

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  27. The civilization disease by bretts · · Score: 1

    Homo sapiens, as a species, may in the near future cease to exist. I'd like our species epitaph NOT to read "Died from their own greed and nearsightedness."

    Then find a better method of leadership :)

  28. Adelaide, South Australia by DiSKiLLeR · · Score: 1

    > This means that during hot days temperatures south of the Mediterranean will reach around 46 degrees Celsius (approximately 114 degrees Fahrenheit) by mid-century.

    We already get temperatures hotter than that (47 C) in Adelaide, South Australia.

    It's why I left.

    Fuck that place and fuck that heat.

    --
    You can tell how powerful someone is by the magnitude of the crime they can commit and be able to get away with.
    1. Re:Adelaide, South Australia by ChunderDownunder · · Score: 1

      Boris Johnson's Brexit plan involves a 4 country free migration zone with our 2 countries, NZ and the UK.

      So there'd be no reason you can't buy a second house in South Australia. Travelling between them might accelerate global warming though.

    2. Re:Adelaide, South Australia by Kinthelt · · Score: 1

      I'm from a place in Canada that is often -35 C from November to February, wanna trade places? :(

      Wasn't this winter.

      --

      "Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Dark Helmet (Spaceballs)

  29. the opposite may well happen by ooloorie · · Score: 1

    There is a good chance that climate change will, in fact, bring more precipitation to Northern Africa:

    Desertification, drought, and despair—that's what global warming has in store for much of Africa. Or so we hear. Emerging evidence is painting a very different scenario, one in which rising temperatures could benefit millions of Africans in the driest parts of the continent. Scientists are now seeing signals that the Sahara desert and surrounding regions are greening due to increasing rainfall. If sustained, these rains could revitalize drought-ravaged regions, reclaiming them for farming communities. This desert-shrinking trend is supported by climate models, which predict a return to conditions that turned the Sahara into a lush savanna some 12,000 years ago.

    http://news.nationalgeographic...

    1. Re:the opposite may well happen by dwywit · · Score: 2

      I used to trust the National Geographic, but since most of it was sold to R. Murdoch, I take anything from NG with a big grain of salt. Hang on, no - I just believe the opposite.

      --
      They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
  30. Re:Crichton was right by Teckla · · Score: 1

    The black plague, in medieval europe, for example had about a 90% kill rate, comparable with what modern militaries would like to see in an engineered bio weapon.

    Spreading throughout the Mediterranean and Europe, the Black Death is estimated to have killed 30–60% of Europe's total population. In total, the plague reduced the world population from an estimated 450 million down to 350–375 million in the 14th century.

  31. Re:Welp, we're screwed. by ChunderDownunder · · Score: 1

    The cleverer plants are tasty. Animals will ingest their seed and thus the plants' children will migrate to wherever the animals go.

  32. People who say by huckamania · · Score: 1

    'You're either part of the solution or part of the problem' are the problem.

    I'm so glad that the El Nino is fading. The Warmistas certainly enjoyed the last year. Finally some warming to talk about. Statistically it's rather small and insignificant, and they had to cool the past again, but it's there. Now they have their fingers and toes crossed hoping that the slight rebound in Artic ice will take a nosedive. Where's the next major conference? Somewhere nice I'm guessing.

    1. Re:People who say by dave420 · · Score: 1

      You seem to be labouring under the impression that you know more than the climate scientists. Either you are mistaken or the scientific method doesn't exist. I wonder which is more likely...

    2. Re:People who say by Stuarticus · · Score: 1

      Exactly, better keep waiting until it happens and then do something - same attitude I have with my car, the temperature gauge is reading a bit high and the engine is knocking, bit of coolant dripping out when I stop, odd burst of steam, the heater doesn't seem to be blowing warm air. No way am I getting scammed by one of those mechanics convinced there's something wrong though. I'll wait until my car is on fire at the side of the road before I start trying to do something about it.

      --
      If you think someone isn't free to have a different definition of "freedom" you may be a tyrant.
  33. Re:They were the worthless ones by frovingslosh · · Score: 1

    Yea, lets criticize the "hippy sorts" when Nixon and Henry Kissinger believed the war in Vietnam was unwinnable and “simply wanted to punt the issue until after the 1972 elections, after which they expected South Vietnam to collapse.” And Robert McNamara even admitted this and that he was just sending kids to their deaths for political reasons believing that we could not win that war. But by all means, lets try to shift the blame to the dirty hippies.

    --
    I'm an American. I love this country and the freedoms that we used to have.
  34. I don't see a problem by countach · · Score: 1

    Just build more coal power stations and fire up your air-conditioning. Problem solved!

  35. Re:Welp, we're screwed. by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

    Sorry, my fault. You sounded as if you wanted to indicate that plants in future will have smaller pores.

    --
    Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  36. Not migration by ThatsNotPudding · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Expiration. The one-percenters realized a few decades ago that with fewer and fewer menial jobs remaining, there would be waaaay too many of the underclass that could ultimately threaten their lifestyles and very lives. Thus military, environmental, and especially economic policies have been implemented to 'thin the herd'. Explains quite a bit, actually.

  37. Re: And this makes the Republicans... by dave420 · · Score: 1

    Translation: "I don't understand the science, but I will act as if I do, as clearly the problem must lie elsewhere".

  38. Re:They were the worthless ones by silentcoder · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You seem to have a real issue with Carter... odd for the man who is probably the most productive ex-president in American history. The man only went and eradicated and entire disease from humanity since he left office, and he is a few months from eradicating a SECOND one.

    But yeah... a president who actively avoided wars and were more focussed on saving lives than taking them and has the sense to employ highly skilled scientists to tell him how to solve problems rather than lobbyists (and continued to do so after leaving office - which is how he achieved the eradication of one disease and is on the verge of doing it again) ... can't have that !

    --
    Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
  39. OR... by PortHaven · · Score: 1

    The increased warmth, and melting of the polar ice caps leads to an increased global humidity. This in turn leads to a reduction in deserts, and makes the north African and southwest Asiatic regions far more habitable. Allowing moisture to be captured and utilized to spur plant growth. Global Warming in fact could allow rich Arab countries to re-green their deserts.

    Global Cooling in fact leads to more temperature extremes and an increase in equatorial deserts. That may seem counter-intuitive, but cooling increases ice caps, which in turns locks up much of the earth's water moisture, leading to dryer climates and increases in equatorial desert regions.

  40. WRONG by PortHaven · · Score: 1

    Global Warming increases moisture vapor in the air. Their crops are not going to dry out, in fact, moisture traps will become far more effective allowing for a greater increase in biomass production and a reduction in deserts.

  41. Re:Crichton was right by dave420 · · Score: 1

    You appear to be woefully ignorant of just what has been ascertained, and the level of confidence thereof.

    You are getting your scientific learning from the guy who wrote Jurassic Park. Please stop.

  42. Re:Less habitable, given air conditioning? by dave420 · · Score: 1

    You might not want to post to opinion pieces at WUWT, but to actual papers in real journals. That's if you want people to take you seriously, that is.

  43. Crichton's C.V. by bretts · · Score: 1

    Crichton graduated summa cum laude from Harvard College, received his MD from Harvard Medical School, and was a postdoctoral fellow at the Salk Institute for Biological Studies, researching public policy with Jacob Bronowski. He taught courses in anthropology at Cambridge University and writing at MIT...Crichton’s interest in computer modeling went back forty years. His multiple-discriminant analysis of Egyptian crania, carried out on an IBM 7090 computer at Harvard, was published in the Papers of the Peabody Museum in 1966. His technical publications included a study of host factors in pituitary chromophobe adenoma, in Metabolism, and an essay on medical obfuscation in the New England Journal of Medicine.

    More interesting information at his website.

  44. Re:Welp, we're screwed. by Stuarticus · · Score: 1

    This should work out great as long as we stop killing animals for eating our tasty plants and making plants whose seeds can't survive in the wild.

    --
    If you think someone isn't free to have a different definition of "freedom" you may be a tyrant.