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Harvard Scientist: Rio Olympics Could Spark 'Full Blown Global Health Disaster' (independent.co.uk)

An anonymous reader writes: Doctors have warned that the upcoming 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro could spark a "full-blown public health disaster" with the spread of the Zika virus. The World Health Organization has declared a health emergency in response to the disease's spread through Latin America. Rio has the highest number of cases of any state in the country. Dr Amir Attaran said in the Harvard Public Health Review the Olympic Games could increase the spread of the virus, suggesting the Games should be hosted by a different city in Brazil. "While Brazil's Zika inevitably will spread globally, given enough time, viruses always do -- it helps nobody to speed that up," he said. "In particular, it cannot possibly help when an estimated 500,000 foreign tourists flock into Rio for the Games, potentially becoming infected, and returning to their homes where both local Aedes mosquitoes and sexual transmission can establish new outbreaks." It's highly unlikely the virus will cause officials to take drastic action since the Games start on August 5th. With economic and political issues in the country, the Zika virus is just one more thing undermining confidence in the country's ability to host the Olympics. It was reported earlier this year that Rio has given up on its promise to eliminate 80 percent of the sewage found in the city's notoriously filthy water.

21 of 147 comments (clear)

  1. Not very realistic by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The games are two and a half months away. Preparations for hosting them take years. I can't see the point in this guy's comments, other than as an attempt to garner some cheap publicity.

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    1. Re:Not very realistic by Frosty+Piss · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The games are two and a half months away. Preparations for hosting them take years. I can't see the point in this guy's comments, other than as an attempt to garner some cheap publicity.

      Regardless of *if* the games occur (they will), he's telling people to stay away . That is the point of his comments.

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    2. Re:Not very realistic by NicknameUnavailable · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The games are two and a half months away. Preparations for hosting them take years. I can't see the point in this guy's comments, other than as an attempt to garner some cheap publicity.

      Canceling them would be the sane thing to do if they can't be moved elsewhere or postponed to move elsewhere. Having a completely arbitrary worldwide event in a practical plague area that causes horrible birth defects in the infected is fucking stupid. No sport is worth the risk of allowing people from your nation to risk others in your nation like that.

    3. Re:Not very realistic by Aighearach · · Score: 2

      I recommend a 6 month quarantine before letting anybody return, if Brazil doesn't have the sense to cancel. Or just leave them there.

    4. Re:Not very realistic by KGIII · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Actually, I understand a whole lot of fucking goes on at the Games. It's a veritable fuck-fest, or so I'm told. I know about a dozen folks who have participated or been an alternate and gone to the games. Almost all of them have mentioned the sex and I do recall it being also mentioned either in a news program or a documentary but I'll be damned if I can tell you which one.

      It would appear that physically fit people, in their prime, like to fuck. Go figure?

      At any rate, it's a good idea to use a condom. I want to say the documentary talked about them handing out condoms and (maybe) running out? But, my memory is toast. (Buttered with cinnamon and sugar.)

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    5. Re:Not very realistic by LostMyBeaver · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I lost interest in much of what he said when I saw the school he goes to and that he says things like "host them in another city".

      He's absolutely without a doubt correct about the possibility of the virus spread. He is kinda down to earth regarding "let's not be extremist". But in reality, unless the transcription is terrible, he seems to lack the ability to put his separate thoughts into something logical and coherent. Therefore, it's difficult for me to be overly interested in his perspective.

      So... as you mention, the moral of the story is... shoot anyone you know who might be going to the olympics or may have been around someone who has before they get close enough.

      Here's a thought....
        - The Olympics will be in the southern hemisphere during mosquito low season.
        - People who attend the games will be at a risk of being infected with Zika, though not as high of a risk as at other times since it will be a low season.
        - The population of the city will be a minimum for 500,000 people greater during this event than normal.
        - The life span of a mosquito at the expected temperatures should be approximately 14 days, 10 if it warms up... which simply increasing population by 500,000 may contribute to.
        - There will be a much higher amount of trash and dirt in the city as well as viable food sources for mosquitoes
        - By the end of the events, the mosquito population should have grown... maybe even a lot.
        - More people will be at risk of infection due to simple population growth
        - More people will be infected... even if the infection rate is as little as 1 in 500, that's still 1,000 infected individuals
        - The people will travel home during summer in the northern hemisphere
        - The mosquito population following summer should be near it's apex at the time.

      It seems to me that there's more to consider on this topic.
        1) Identify whether early detection is possible and require tests followed by possible isolation before boarding airplanes.
        2) Offer quarantine at indoor spas in arriving countries for people who have been to the Olympics.
        3) As seems most logical and has been suggested... suggest to people to simply not go. I can't imagine why anyone would want to go to the Olympics anyway. It seems an overpriced way to drag your knuckles.
        4) How to exploit the American news networks to turn a profit on this... after all, in America's current "Fear Economy", the fear propaganda mills run almost 24/7 to ensure people keep their jobs. Zika is a great way to scare people... especially with the possible (even likely) link with birth related issues. There must be a way to turn a profit on this. Maybe a new fashion trend of veils and long gloves to reduce exposed body surface mosquitoes would find attractive?

    6. Re:Not very realistic by LostMyBeaver · · Score: 2

      Actually... it has absolutely nothing to do with physical fitness. People in general like to fuck.

      It's more a connection like this.

      People who like sports tend to have some sort of a need to gain an adrenaline rush of some type.
      Men who watch sports are generally testosterone addicted as well. These people find their entertainment through generally primal and highly physical forms.
      Women who watch sports are generally highly competitive in nature and are more likely to revert to primal states as well. Even my almost best buddy, she's a Ph.D. in DSP... her brain fails to function when exposed to any form of competition... physical or verbal.

      Spectators of sports seem to have some sort of illness that makes them irrationally believe that other people doing something more or less benign like kicking a ball around has something to do with them. They seem to believe at both an emotional and physical level that if some hairy tattooed guy with limited cognitive capacity jumps over a stick... this persons action effects them somehow. It's probably a similar mental disorder to the one which causes many people to feel a need to invent or at least believe in invisible sky gods and magical places you go to just be happy after you die.

      As such... these peoples hormone levels increase drastically causing people to revert to something closer to a primal state which obviously is expressed in primal behavior.

      I honestly an less concerned about Zika and far more concerned about the cleanliness of the prostitutes who will be in Rio during this event. Based on statistics published by PornHub during the world cup a few years back (was that Rio too?). People who get their rocks off on sports rush to porn sites during commercial breaks. If people are this horny over watching players (generally of their own gender) getting hot and sweaty... I can only imagine that even the meanest of the prostitutes is likely to receive some business from spectators not bright enough to realize "You do not wish to place anything in there".

    7. Re:Not very realistic by Anubis+IV · · Score: 2

      From what I hear, it shouldn't be difficult. Advance ticket sales apparently haven't been this poor in decades.

    8. Re:Not very realistic by just+another+AC · · Score: 4, Informative

      Competed at last few Olympics personally...

      Yes a lot happens, but the village also provides free condoms. Most people use them, as such, the village becomes the highest consumption of condoms ever. Easy to google and verify this. Although some of this number is people hoarding these for future use.

      http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new...

      Long story short, all athletes going to Rio have been warned many times over and advised that men should use protection for at least a month, and should not try for children for at least 6 months post games. Similar for women (but I think they only need wait a month for some reason).

  2. Filthy drinking water? by 110010001000 · · Score: 3, Informative

    Who cares about the water and dying children? They have a good soccer team. Get your priorities straight. More stadiums!

  3. The virus isn't the problem there by fustakrakich · · Score: 2, Funny

    The pollution, on the other hand, is indeed hazardous. And those are GMO mosquitoes from 2012 onward that are causing the microcephaly and miscarriages, not the virus.

    --
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    1. Re:The virus isn't the problem there by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 4, Interesting

      "And those are GMO mosquitoes from 2012 onward that are causing the microcephaly and miscarriages"

      You have the story scrambled. The GMO mosquitos are going to be introduced to kill off the natural organic free-range progressive mosquitos which are spreading the virus.

  4. Lay the blame at the proper set of feet by rmdingler · · Score: 4, Insightful
    World Cup Soccer in Qatar in the midst of the 45 degree celsius (112 f) summer, the Olympics in the midst of the Russian kleptocracy, and now this mess...

    Human greed and self-interest at the expense of pragmatic decision-making. Wouldn't it be something if it were a new story.

    --
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    Ernest Hemingway

  5. Shouldn't others have a say? by unencode200x · · Score: 2

    There is the potential for 10's of thousands, or perhaps 100's of thousands of people to get infected in Rio alone. Then when they go home they'll infect others.

    Shouldn't we have a say? It can't just be up to the up to the IOC or Brazilian officials. These people are going to come back to our countries and potentially infect everyone else. Tens of thousands of people coming back to our cities with this thing sounds pretty scary to me.

    --

    Chance favors the prepared mind.
    Perfect is the enemy of good.
    1. Re:Shouldn't others have a say? by kylemonger · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The Olympics is a large surge of incoming people, but consider that Rio receives 2.82 million international tourist visitors per year (source: Wikipedia). I'd imagine the tourism numbers have come down since the heartbreaking pictures of those microencephalic babies appeared, but even a 50% decrease leaves a mess of people who could carry the virus home with them.

      Whatever is going to happen with Zika is going to happen with or without the Olympics. And with global warming proceeding apace, the mosquitos are going to be spreading out of the tropical regions in any event. Get ready.

  6. Re:Am I the only one.. by KGIII · · Score: 2

    Heh. You're an old bastard. Even older than I by about 4 years.

    Remember when we were young and always wanted to be the oldest? *sighs*

    "Man, I can't wait to turn 14 so I can get my permit!" "Man, I can't wait until I'm 18 and can drink!"

    Aging, not all it's cracked up to be.

    Having said that... I don't watch TV really so it's very unlikely that I'll watch the Olympics. I do actually, sort of, not really mind watching some of the Winter Games. I'd absolutely love to try bobsled or luge. Err... 30 years ago - that is. I'd bust a hip and be out of commission if I tried it today.

    I'm also not really that fond of the newer events. I don't know if it's because I'm an old fuddy-duddy or if that's because they actually kind of suck. Synchronized swimming? Really? Did they ever put skateboarding in? I'd probably watch that. I was thrashing back before there was a Thrasher magazine. Again, not an activity for the old.

    So, I am also unlikely to watch any of the events. If it's online then I might put a few of 'em on just for the novelty sake but I don't think that's likely. I'm also not worried overly much about this pandemic potential. I guess if they all turn into zombies and go on a brain eating rampage then I'd probably watch that. Barring that, I doubt I'll pay much attention. Meanwhile, I'll wait for Dubai to host the Winter Olympics.

    --
    "So long and thanks for all the fish."
  7. Editing is fundamental by porges · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Which leads to a simple question: But for the Games, would anyone recommend sending an extra half a million visitors into Brazil right now? Of course not: mass migration into the heart of an outbreak is a public health no-brainer. And given the choice between accelerating a dangerous new disease or not—for it is impossible that Games will slow Zika down—the answer should be a no-brainer for the Olympic organizers too. Putting sentimentality aside, clearly the Rio 2016 Games must not proceed.

    Phrasing, dude.

    1. Re:Editing is fundamental by jratcliffe · · Score: 2

      I had two reactions to this.

      1. You're a terrible person, and should be ashamed of yourself.
      2. Trying to clean Diet Coke off my monitor when it's also filling my sinuses sucks.

  8. More ideas: Being realistic about Brazil and Rio by Futurepower(R) · · Score: 2

    More ideas: The Olympic Games will be in August, which is winter in the southern hemisphere. In Rio and most of Brazil, winter is still warm.

    From the Slashdot story summary: "It was reported earlier this year that Rio has given up on its promise to eliminate 80 percent of the sewage found in the city's notoriously filthy water."

    I've only been in Rio, at separate times, for maybe 3 weeks total. I haven't seen "notoriously filthy water". The heavily polluted area is in Guanabara Bay, I understand. This is a mostly true but sometimes exaggerated discussion of beaches in Rio: Beaches in Rio de Janeiro. (The article mentions where it exaggerates.)

    The Brazilian media constantly emphasizes violent events in Brazilian cities. However, the murder rate in Rio de Janeiro was, the last time I checked, less than two-thirds of the murder rate in the U.S. capital city, Washington, D.C.

    Discussions of the song, The Girl From Ipanema, are usually examples of cultures outside of Brazil not reporting Brazilian culture accurately. The author, Antonio Carlos Jobim, was sitting in a restaurant, I suppose, writing that song. If he had wanted to talk with that woman, she almost certainly would have been happy to talk with him. That's been my experience, and I'm not as physically attractive as was Jobim.

    Many people live in the area surrounding Guanabara Bay, Go there. People from the U.S. will see that the people everywhere in Rio are generally far more healthy-looking than people in the United States.

  9. Ignorance by esperto · · Score: 2

    I live in Rio and the Olympic games should not have been held here, for several reasons, but Zika is not one of them.
    The summary is phrased in way that give the impression the guy is a medical doctor, when actually he has a doctorate in law, and although he writes for the health review, he doesn't have a medical research background.
    Zika has already spread pretty much to everywhere that has the mosquito (aedes aegypt and others) and the olympics will not cause much of an impact, specially because it will happen in the winter, when the mosquito borne diseases almost disappear, because the mosquito population drops sharply due to the smaller amount of rain. And by the way, Rio is NOT the place with the highest amount of cases of any state, of either Zika or microcephaly.
    Further more, Zika is a very mild infection for the great majority of people infected, with most (~80%) not even being symptomatic, and did not grabbed the headlines until Brazilian health and safety authorities connected the increase of microcephaly cases to Zika infections.
    The only risk for the guests is if they are women, pregnant or planning to get pregnant at the times of the games, or if they fuck everything that moves (in that case, call me ^-^) and the risk of getting pregnant can be easily avoided by either not coming (as suggested) or by simply using anti-conceptional methods.

  10. Move the damn Olympics! by kheldan · · Score: 2

    This Zika threat is no Amateur Night shit. Zika reads like something from an action-adventure movie, where the evil mastermind weaponizes a virus and releases it into the world to bring about an apocalypse. Transmission via mosquito is just the beginning, it can be transmitted from person to person, and in an adult it's mild enough that anyone who isn't specifically diagnosed with it could easily shrug it off as nothing to worry about. I could see it wrecking an entire generation (or more) if not stopped. Where the games are planned on being held is literally where Zika is the worst and you're going to have hundreds of thousands of people from all over the world show up and congregate in one place? Madness. Move the goddamned Games to some other country. We don't need to help the Zika virus spread all over the goddamned planet.

    ..and before some asshat accuses me of it: This ain't about 'brown people' or any such bullshit; if Zika became a pandemic, it would affect all people from all ethnic backgrounds. We'd have microcephaly cases in newborns all over the place, white, black, brown, yellow, or what-have-you. Let's not, OK? Move the damned Olympics!

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